| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Who will be in the Fox GOP debate? | Fox will count the five most recent national polls released as of 5 PM ET on 8/4 to determine the Top Ten. | |||||||
2 | prepared by @Taniel | Fox chose to use the polls below. They did not include NBC/WSJ, perhaps because of methodological deficiencies. | |||||||
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4 | |||||||||
5 | Rank | Candidate | Average | (1) Quinnipiac 7/23-28 (released 7/30) | (2) Monmouth 7/30-8/2 (released 8/3) | (3) Fox News 7/30-8/2 (released 8/3) | (4) Bloomberg 7/30-8/2 (released 8/4) | (5) CBS 7/29-8/2 (released 8/4) | |
6 | Model #1: Polls weighted equally | ||||||||
7 | 1 | Trump | 23.4 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 24 | |
8 | 2 | Bush | 12.0 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 13 | |
9 | 3 | Walker | 10.2 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | |
10 | 4 | Huckabee | 6.6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
11 | 5 | Carson | 5.8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | |
12 | 6 | Cruz | 5.4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |
13 | 6 | Rubio | 5.4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
14 | 8 | Paul | 4.8 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
15 | 9 | Christie | 3.4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
16 | 10 | Kasich | 3.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
17 | 11 | Perry | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
18 | 12 | Santorum | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
19 | 13 | Fiorina | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
20 | 13 | Jindal | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
21 | 15 | Graham | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
22 | 15 | Pataki | 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
23 | 17 | Gilmore | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
24 | Number of polls: | 5 | |||||||
25 | |||||||||
26 | |||||||||
27 | Model #2: Weighted by sample size | ||||||||
28 | 1 | Trump | 23.0 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 24 | |
29 | 2 | Bush | 11.8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 13 | |
30 | 3 | Walker | 10.4 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 10 | |
31 | 4 | Huckabee | 6.5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
32 | 5 | Carson | 5.8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | |
33 | 6 | Rubio | 5.5 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
34 | 7 | Cruz | 5.3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | |
35 | 8 | Paul | 5.0 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
36 | 9 | Kasich | 3.4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
37 | 10 | Christie | 3.4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
38 | 11 | Perry | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
39 | 12 | Santorum | 1.4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
40 | 13 | Jindal | 1.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
41 | 14 | Fiorina | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
42 | 15 | Graham | 0.6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
43 | 16 | Pataki | 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
44 | 17 | Gilmore | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
45 | Sample size: | 710 | 423 | 475 | 500 | 408 | |||
46 | Total sample size: | 2,516 | |||||||