Irish Presidential Election What-If, Stephen Cass (+NRM error fixing)
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Actual results
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Count No. 1Count No. 2Count No. 3Count No. 4
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Michael D Higgins701,101730,480793,1281,007,104
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Seán Gallagher504,964529,401548,373628,114
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Martin McGuinness243,030252,611265,196
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Gay Mitchell113,321127,357136,309
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David Norris109,469116,526
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Dana Rosemary Scallon51,220
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Mary Davis48,657
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1,771,762
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In the last week of the election, 28% of voters switch their votes acording to the Recall poll: http://www.rte.ie/news/vote2011/rte-recall-poll-presidential-election-2011.pdf
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1,771,7620.28496093.36switched voters
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Of these 58% were people switching away from Gallagher
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496093.360.58287734.1488
votes lost by Gallagher
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But how many of these votes were due to the SF controversy?
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0.45
said controversy had no impact at all
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0.55said it impacted a little or a lot
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Thus the most Gallagher votes lost due to SF-led controversy were:
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287734.14880.55158253.7818
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Where did these votes go, and in what numbers? Recall poll gives us the percentages
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Michael D Higgins0.71112360.1851
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Martin McGuinness0.0812660.30255
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Gay Mitchell0.069495.22691
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David Norris0.0711077.76473
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Dana Rosemary Scallon0.011582.537818
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Mary Davis0.034747.613455
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Let's rerun the 1st count, giving Gallagher back all the votes he lot because of the controversy and taking away those votes from the other candidates
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Actual Count No. 1
Amount of votes to add or subtract
SF-less Count 1
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Michael D Higgins701,101112360.1851588,741
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Seán Gallagher504,964158253.7818663,218
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Martin McGuinness243,03012660.30255230,370
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Gay Mitchell113,3219495.22691103,826
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David Norris109,46911077.7647398,391
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Dana Rosemary Scallon51,2201582.53781849,637
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Mary Davis48,6574747.61345543,909
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This puts Gallagher into the lead on 1st preferences. Let's run the later counts, assuming the eliminated votes were distributed in the same proportions as during the actual counts
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First candidates to be eliminated:
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Actual Count No. 1
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Dana Rosemary Scallon51,220
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Mary Davis48,657
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Total99,877
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Distrobution of their 2nd prefrences
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Actual Count No.1Actual Count No. 2Changedistribution fractions
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Michael D Higgins701,101730,48029,3790.2941518067
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Seán Gallagher504,964529,40124,4370.2446709453
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Martin McGuinness243,030252,6119,5810.09592799143
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Gay Mitchell113,321127,35714,0360.1405328554
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David Norris109,469116,5267,0570.070656908
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Total84,490
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Terminal votes15,3870.1540594932
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Now let's go onto to SF-less round 2
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SF-less Count 1SF-less Count2
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Michael D Higgins588,741616,258
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Seán Gallagher663,218686,106
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Martin McGuinness230,370239,343
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Gay Mitchell103,826116,972
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David Norris98,391105,001
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Dana Rosemary Scallon49,637
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Mary Davis43,909
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Next candidate to be eliminated
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Actual Count No. 1Actual Count No. 2
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David Norris109,469116,526
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Distribution of his votes:
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Actual Count No. 2Actual Count No. 3Changedistribution fraction
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Michael D Higgins730,480793,12862,6480.5376310866
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Seán Gallagher529,401548,37318,9720.1628134494
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Martin McGuinness252,611265,19612,5850.1080016477
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Gay Mitchell127,357136,3098,9520.07682405643
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SF-less round 3
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