Irish Presidential Election What-If, Stephen Cass (+NRM error fixing)

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	A	B	C	D	E
1
2
3	Actual results
4		Count No. 1	Count No. 2	Count No. 3	Count No. 4
5	Michael D Higgins	701,101	730,480	793,128	1,007,104
6	Seán Gallagher	504,964	529,401	548,373	628,114
7	Martin McGuinness	243,030	252,611	265,196
8	Gay Mitchell	113,321	127,357	136,309
9	David Norris	109,469	116,526
10	Dana Rosemary Scallon	51,220
11	Mary Davis	48,657
12
13
14		1,771,762
15
16
17	In the last week of the election, 28% of voters switch their votes acording to the Recall poll: http://www.rte.ie/news/vote2011/rte-recall-poll-presidential-election-2011.pdf
18
19		1,771,762	0.28	496093.36	switched voters
20
21	Of these 58% were people switching away from Gallagher
22
23		496093.36	0.58	287734.1488	votes lost by Gallagher
24
25	But how many of these votes were due to the SF controversy?
26
27		0.45	said controversy had no impact at all
28		0.55	said it impacted a little or a lot
29
30	Thus the most Gallagher votes lost due to SF-led controversy were:
31
32		287734.1488	0.55	158253.7818
33
34	Where did these votes go, and in what numbers? Recall poll gives us the percentages
35
36	Michael D Higgins	0.71	112360.1851
37	Martin McGuinness	0.08	12660.30255
38	Gay Mitchell	0.06	9495.22691
39	David Norris	0.07	11077.76473
40	Dana Rosemary Scallon	0.01	1582.537818
41	Mary Davis	0.03	4747.613455
42
43
44	Let's rerun the 1st count, giving Gallagher back all the votes he lot because of the controversy and taking away those votes from the other candidates
45
46		Actual Count No. 1	Amount of votes to add or subtract	SF-less Count 1
47	Michael D Higgins	701,101	112360.1851	588,741
48	Seán Gallagher	504,964	158253.7818	663,218
49	Martin McGuinness	243,030	12660.30255	230,370
50	Gay Mitchell	113,321	9495.22691	103,826
51	David Norris	109,469	11077.76473	98,391
52	Dana Rosemary Scallon	51,220	1582.537818	49,637
53	Mary Davis	48,657	4747.613455	43,909
54
55	This puts Gallagher into the lead on 1st preferences. Let's run the later counts, assuming the eliminated votes were distributed in the same proportions as during the actual counts
56
57	First candidates to be eliminated:
58
59		Actual Count No. 1
60	Dana Rosemary Scallon	51,220
61	Mary Davis	48,657
62
63	Total	99,877
64
65	Distrobution of their 2nd prefrences
66		Actual Count No.1	Actual Count No. 2	Change	distribution fractions
67	Michael D Higgins	701,101	730,480	29,379	0.2941518067
68	Seán Gallagher	504,964	529,401	24,437	0.2446709453
69	Martin McGuinness	243,030	252,611	9,581	0.09592799143
70	Gay Mitchell	113,321	127,357	14,036	0.1405328554
71	David Norris	109,469	116,526	7,057	0.070656908
72
73			Total	84,490
74
75			Terminal votes	15,387	0.1540594932
76
77	Now let's go onto to SF-less round 2
78		SF-less Count 1	SF-less Count2
79	Michael D Higgins	588,741	616,258
80	Seán Gallagher	663,218	686,106
81	Martin McGuinness	230,370	239,343
82	Gay Mitchell	103,826	116,972
83	David Norris	98,391	105,001
84	Dana Rosemary Scallon	49,637
85	Mary Davis	43,909
86
87	Next candidate to be eliminated
88
89		Actual Count No. 1	Actual Count No. 2
90	David Norris	109,469	116,526
91
92	Distribution of his votes:
93
94		Actual Count No. 2	Actual Count No. 3	Change	distribution fraction
95	Michael D Higgins	730,480	793,128	62,648	0.5376310866
96	Seán Gallagher	529,401	548,373	18,972	0.1628134494
97	Martin McGuinness	252,611	265,196	12,585	0.1080016477
98	Gay Mitchell	127,357	136,309	8,952	0.07682405643
99
100	SF-less round 3