ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASAT
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New Incentives – current states of operationNew Incentives – prospective statesNew Incentives – prospective states
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NigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeriaNigeria
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Main calculationsunittypeOverallBauchiGombeJigawaKadunaKanoKatsinaKebbiSokotoZamfaraAbiaAdamawaAkwa IbomAnambraBayelsaBenueBornoCross RiverDeltaEbonyiEdoEkitiEnuguFCTImoKogiKwaraLagosNasarawaNigerOgunOndoOsunOyoPlateauRiversTarabaYobe
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Final cost-effectiveness estimate (pulled from below for visibility)xcashfeed-23.810.819.95.713.120.331.551.338.11.94.21.82.23.03.77.41.52.50.91.71.20.91.51.12.32.61.14.18.33.32.91.12.02.71.67.76.7
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Grantee costs
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GiveWell costs
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Grant size$input$1,000,000-------------------------------------
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Spending attributable to grantee
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Total spending contributed by grantee$calc-$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
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Cost per child enrolled
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Cost per infant enrolled in the program$input$21.27-------------------------------------
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Outputs
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Total children enrolled
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Total children enrolled in the program#calc-47,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,00547,005
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Total children vaccinated
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Proportion of vaccinated children who are enrolled in New Incentives' program%input95%-------------------------------------
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Total children vaccinated in program areas%calc-49,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,47849,478
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Counterfactual vaccination coverage
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Proportion of children in the target population who would be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across vaccines%supp-48%63%55%69%53%44%32%25%40%86%83%82%79%76%76%50%91%77%99%88%93%96%89%92%79%64%90%68%56%61%69%87%69%76%87%69%72%
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Corresponding proportion of children who would not be vaccinated in the absence of the program, aggregated across incentivized vaccines%calc-52%37%45%31%47%56%68%75%60%14%17%18%21%24%24%50%9%23%1%12%7%4%11%8%21%36%10%32%44%39%31%13%31%24%13%31%28%
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Effect of the program on vaccination coverage
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Reduction in the proportion of children who are unvaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program, based on GW's analysis of the New Incentives RCT, aggregated across vaccines%supp33%-------------------------------------
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Internal validity adjustment%input-12%-------------------------------------
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Reduction in the proportion of children who are unvaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program%calc29%------------------------------------
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Corresponding increase in the proportion of children who are vaccinated as a result of New Incentives' programpptcalc-15%11%13%9%14%16%20%22%18%4%5%5%6%7%7%15%3%7%0%3%2%1%3%2%6%11%3%9%13%11%9%4%9%7%4%9%8%
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Total proportion of children in the target population who are vaccinated%calc-63%74%68%78%67%60%52%47%58%90%88%88%85%83%83%64%93%84%99%92%95%97%93%94%85%74%93%77%69%72%78%91%78%83%91%78%80%
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Number of children vaccinated as a result of New Incentives' program
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Children in the target population#calc-78,53167,28972,31563,15673,72581,88894,922105,69185,40654,87056,31856,53258,28459,75959,73576,72952,95558,97749,84453,99751,87050,78153,47752,43558,27366,44353,07964,07372,05568,30763,10554,40063,34959,35954,33763,21161,851
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Children counterfactually vaccinated#calc-12,0887,4109,5025,69110,08813,48518,90823,38814,9482,2432,8462,9353,6644,2774,26711,3381,4463,9521521,8809955421,6641,2303,6597,0581,4986,0729,3937,8345,6702,0485,7714,1112,0225,7145,148
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Outcomes
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Mortality reduction among people under age 5
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Probability that a person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%supp-2.96%2.11%2.92%1.27%2.02%2.15%2.34%3.56%3.91%0.72%1.76%0.43%0.45%0.75%0.95%0.83%0.52%0.58%0.80%0.57%0.46%0.30%0.51%0.32%0.51%0.34%0.25%0.76%1.22%0.44%0.50%0.23%0.32%0.59%0.54%1.94%1.56%
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Proportion of people under age 5 represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-28%35%31%45%29%28%31%12%22%63%49%67%73%51%51%43%74%62%71%77%75%79%72%76%60%54%77%49%33%53%61%68%57%57%70%36%34%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among people under age 5, aggregated across vaccines%supp-53%52%55%53%52%54%54%53%54%50%52%53%54%52%51%53%54%53%53%54%53%54%53%53%56%54%53%53%52%53%53%54%54%53%53%51%54%
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Probability that an unvaccinated person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, adjusted for deaths occurring before the age of vaccination%calc-3.46%2.58%3.51%1.67%2.39%2.54%2.81%3.80%4.43%1.06%2.37%0.67%0.74%1.03%1.29%1.08%0.86%0.86%1.28%0.98%0.76%0.53%0.82%0.55%0.77%0.48%0.42%1.02%1.48%0.62%0.74%0.35%0.46%0.84%0.86%2.37%1.91%
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Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75-------------------------------------
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Probability that an unvaccinated person will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 5, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-6.05%4.51%6.13%2.92%4.18%4.44%4.92%6.65%7.75%1.85%4.15%1.18%1.30%1.80%2.26%1.89%1.50%1.51%2.23%1.71%1.33%0.93%1.44%0.95%1.35%0.83%0.73%1.79%2.59%1.08%1.29%0.62%0.80%1.47%1.51%4.15%3.35%
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Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%-------------------------------------
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Total deaths averted among people under age 5#calc-3871753188821832250182662421611826404911412322177313628326581274539725321612193
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Mortality reduction among people age 5 through age 14
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Probability that a 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15%supp-0.24%0.17%0.24%0.11%0.17%0.19%0.22%0.29%0.31%0.06%0.14%0.05%0.05%0.07%0.11%0.10%0.07%0.06%0.09%0.05%0.05%0.04%0.06%0.04%0.06%0.05%0.04%0.09%0.12%0.06%0.06%0.03%0.04%0.08%0.05%0.16%0.17%
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Proportion of 5-14-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-16%20%17%25%18%16%18%7%13%35%28%37%39%28%29%24%39%34%39%41%41%42%40%41%31%29%43%27%19%30%33%37%30%31%38%21%19%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 5-14-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-51%51%53%52%51%52%53%53%53%49%50%50%51%50%49%50%49%51%50%50%50%50%50%50%53%51%50%50%51%51%50%50%51%50%50%50%52%
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Probability that an unvaccinated 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15%calc-0.26%0.19%0.26%0.13%0.18%0.21%0.24%0.30%0.33%0.07%0.16%0.06%0.06%0.08%0.12%0.11%0.08%0.08%0.11%0.06%0.06%0.05%0.07%0.05%0.08%0.06%0.05%0.10%0.13%0.07%0.07%0.04%0.04%0.10%0.06%0.17%0.19%
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Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75-------------------------------------
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Probability that an unvaccinated 5-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 15, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-0.45%0.33%0.46%0.22%0.32%0.37%0.42%0.53%0.58%0.12%0.29%0.10%0.11%0.14%0.22%0.19%0.15%0.13%0.19%0.11%0.10%0.10%0.13%0.09%0.14%0.10%0.08%0.18%0.23%0.11%0.12%0.07%0.08%0.17%0.11%0.31%0.33%
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Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%-------------------------------------
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Deaths averted among people age 5 through 14#calc-28122361626416646141234111301001134151153123199
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Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%-------------------------------------
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Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 5-15-year-olds#input10.0-------------------------------------
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Discounted deaths averted among people age 5 through age 14#calc-27122261625396244141234111301001133151043123188
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Mortality reduction among people age 15 through age 49
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Probability that a 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50%supp-0.79%0.47%0.90%0.35%0.44%0.74%0.79%1.07%0.94%0.23%0.43%0.26%0.25%0.32%0.43%0.37%0.36%0.28%0.36%0.26%0.24%0.25%0.23%0.22%0.28%0.31%0.17%0.40%0.49%0.30%0.28%0.18%0.21%0.41%0.25%0.54%0.74%
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Proportion of 15-49-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-8%10%8%11%8%7%8%4%6%16%13%15%16%12%13%12%16%15%16%17%17%18%17%17%14%13%18%12%9%13%14%16%14%14%16%9%8%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 15-49-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-38%37%39%37%38%38%38%38%38%37%37%37%37%36%36%37%35%37%37%37%37%37%37%37%36%37%37%37%37%37%37%37%36%37%37%37%38%
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Probability that an unvaccinated 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50%calc-0.81%0.49%0.93%0.36%0.46%0.76%0.81%1.09%0.96%0.25%0.45%0.27%0.26%0.33%0.45%0.39%0.38%0.30%0.38%0.28%0.26%0.27%0.24%0.24%0.29%0.33%0.18%0.41%0.51%0.32%0.29%0.19%0.22%0.43%0.26%0.56%0.76%
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Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75-------------------------------------
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Probability that an unvaccinated 15-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 50, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-1.42%0.86%1.62%0.64%0.80%1.33%1.42%1.90%1.68%0.43%0.78%0.47%0.46%0.58%0.79%0.68%0.67%0.52%0.67%0.49%0.45%0.48%0.43%0.41%0.51%0.57%0.32%0.72%0.89%0.55%0.51%0.33%0.39%0.75%0.46%0.98%1.34%
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Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%-------------------------------------
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Deaths averted among people age 15 through 49#calc-6524601430681031719648569122838032132715216311611281132126
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Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%-------------------------------------
75
Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 15-49-year-olds#input32.5-------------------------------------
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Discounted deaths averted among people age 15 through age 49#calc-55205112265887145823745810243603112261311426149271031822
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Mortality reduction among people age 50 through age 74
79
Probability that a 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75%supp-3.15%2.21%3.10%1.26%1.67%2.68%3.32%3.40%4.01%0.96%1.77%1.04%0.95%1.27%1.65%1.66%1.50%0.94%1.38%0.85%0.95%1.07%0.72%0.88%1.21%1.09%0.60%1.15%1.80%1.18%1.13%0.89%0.79%1.17%0.93%1.55%2.79%
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Proportion of 50-74-year-olds represented in GBD 2021 disease burden estimates who were vaccinated, aggregated across vaccines%supp-4%5%4%6%4%4%4%2%3%8%6%8%8%6%6%6%8%7%8%9%8%9%8%9%7%6%9%6%4%7%7%8%7%7%8%5%4%
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Proportion of vaccine-preventable disease incidence averted by full vaccination among 50-74-year-olds, aggregated across vaccines%supp-19%18%19%18%19%19%19%19%19%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%17%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%18%19%
82
Probability that an unvaccinated 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75%calc-3.17%2.23%3.13%1.27%1.69%2.70%3.34%3.41%4.03%0.98%1.79%1.05%0.97%1.28%1.66%1.68%1.52%0.95%1.40%0.86%0.97%1.09%0.73%0.89%1.23%1.10%0.61%1.16%1.81%1.19%1.14%0.90%0.80%1.19%0.94%1.57%2.81%
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Mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease per mortality directly caused by vaccine-preventable disease%input0.75-------------------------------------
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Probability that an unvaccinated 50-year-old will die of a vaccine-preventable cause before reaching age 75, including mortalities indirectly attributable to vaccine-preventable disease%calc-5.55%3.90%5.47%2.23%2.95%4.72%5.85%5.98%7.06%1.71%3.13%1.85%1.69%2.24%2.91%2.94%2.66%1.66%2.45%1.51%1.69%1.90%1.28%1.56%2.15%1.93%1.07%2.03%3.17%2.09%2.00%1.58%1.40%2.08%1.64%2.74%4.92%
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Ratio of the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease mortality to the reduction in vaccine-preventable disease incidence%input100%-------------------------------------
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Deaths averted among people age 50 through 74#calc-125521002355120208265199716101117226071215324414253225430206141562847
87
Discount rate for deaths averted in the future%input0.5%-------------------------------------
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Average years between vaccination and a mortality occuring among 50-74-year-olds#input62.5-------------------------------------
89
Discounted deaths averted among people age 50 through age 74#calc-923873174088152194146512781216445904213310182164022154101142135
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Long-term income increases
92
Ratio of value generated from income increases to value generated from mortalities averted among people under age 15 by seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC)#input0.31-------------------------------------
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Adjustment for income increases generated by New Incentives' program compared to SMC%input0%-------------------------------------
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Ratio of value generated from income increases to value generated from mortalities averted among people under age 15 by New Incentives' program#calc0.31-------------------------------------
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Value assigned to averting a death from vaccine-preventable disease of a person under age 5 UoVinput116-------------------------------------
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Value assigned to averting a death from vaccine-preventable disease of a person age 5-14UoVinput134-------------------------------------
97
Units of value generated from deaths averted among people under age 15UoVcalc-48,58521,97339,93811,06927,45740,78163,518104,33178,3952,5807,6412,3373,2775,0536,31714,6401,4964,0292272,1378883531,6227983,5774,1697557,45216,1875,8264,9448823,2204,1382,03215,21511,992
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Units of value generated from long-term income increasesUoVcalc-14,8906,73412,2403,3928,41512,49819,46631,97424,0267912,3427161,0041,5481,9364,4874591,235706552721084972451,0961,2782312,2844,9611,7861,5152709871,2686234,6633,675
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Consumption increases