Normal case: Finance forecast RevenYOU - see tabs for + SaaS metrics + yearly overview + important notes 12-2019.xlsx
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Nr of users based on average growth
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of relevant digital marketplaces, like:
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Netflix, Steam, Amazon Prime,
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Spotify, Apple music, Tinder140,00%1191,67%100,00%50,00%33,29%57,73%57,06%49,36%24,32%14,84%12,93%11,44%10,27%8,91%8,18%7,56%7,03%11,54%10,34%9,38%
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25%
sensitivity margin discount on the value of research
25 60 775 1.550 2.325 3.099 4.888 7.677 11.466 14.255 16.370 18.48620.60122.71724.74026.76328.78730.81034.36537.91941.474
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In eurosx 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000x 1000
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Profit & Loss18 + 19Q1 2020Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24
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Startbase: Number of users, incl sensitivity
6 15 194 388 581 775 1.222 1.919 2.867 3.564 4.093 4.622 5.150 5.679 6.185 6.691 7.197 7.703 8.591 9.480 10.369
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75%Retention rate Q1 145 291 436 581 917 1.439 2.150 2.673 3.069 3.466 3.863 4.259 4.639 5.018 5.398 5.777 6.443 7.110
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21%Retention rate Q241811221632574036027488599711.0821.1931.2991.4051.5111.6181.804
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14%Retention rate Q3 2754811081712694014995736477217958669371.0081.078
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Total Retained nr of users 6,3 15,0 193,8 339 380 407 854 1.440 1.971 2.023 2.202 2.644 3.105 3.134 3.290 3.714 4.171 4.196 4.735 5.446 5.983
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2%Funded account Q1 0,13 0,18 3,58 4 4 4 9 14 19 14 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 18 18 18
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9%Funded account Q21326395282130193241276312348383417452486520580640
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13%Funded account Q3511162133527897112126141155169183196210235
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13%Funded account Q447111422355265748494103113122131140
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Total nr 1st funded accounts 0,13 0,18 3,58 17 35 57 84 128 196 282 364 436 499 559 618 676 734 791 856 939 1.032
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15%2nd deposit Q1 0,02 0,03 0,54 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3
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15%2nd deposit Q2 2 4 6 8 12 19 29 36 41 47 52 58 63 68 73 78 87 96
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15%2nd deposit Q3 1 2 2 3 5 8 12 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 32 35
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Total nr 2nd deposit accounts 0,02 0,03 0,54 3 5 8 12 18 27 39 49 58 65 73 80 87 95 102 110 121 134
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45%3rd deposit Q2 2 2 2 2 4 6 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8 8
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45%3rd deposit Q3 6 12 18 24 37 58 87 108 124 140 156 173 188 203 219 234 261
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45%3rd deposit Q4 2 5 7 10 15 24 35 44 50 57 63 70 76 82 88 95
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Total nr 3rd deposit accounts 2 8 16 24 35 53 82 117 148 173 195 218 240 262 284 305 330 364
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67%4th deposit Q3 2 3 3 3 6 9 13 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 12
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67%4th deposit Q4 9 18 26 35 55 87 130 161 185 209 233 257 280 303 325 348
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67%4th deposit Q5 4 7 11 14 22 35 52 65 75 85 94 104 113 122 132
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Total nr 4th deposit accounts 2 11 24 36 52 79 122 174 221 257 291 325 358 390 422 455 492
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Total nr of Funded accounts 0,13 0,18 3,58 17 35 57 84 128 196 282 364 436 499 559 618 676 734 791 856 939 1.032
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€ 1Revenue 1st funded accounts 0,15 0,21 4 20 42 68 100 153 233 336 434 520 595 666 736 806 874 942 1.020 1.119 1.230
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€ 4Revenue 2nd deposit account 0,07 0,10 2 10 21 32 46 70 108 155 196 229 259 289 318 347 376 404 437 481 531
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€ 12Revenue 3rd deposit account - - ,00 - 19 91 189 288 413 630 975 1.393 1.766 2.059 2.328 2.597 2.863 3.124 3.381 3.638 3.936 4.331
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€ 40Revenue 4th deposit account - - ,00 - - 95 451 940 1.428 2.052 3.128 4.839 6.913 8.764 10.220 11.554 12.888 14.210 15.502 16.778 18.054 19.533
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Sum Revenue on transactions 0,22 0,31 6 49 249 741 1.374 2.064 3.024 4.594 6.862 9.427 11.676 13.502 15.205 16.904 18.583 20.229 21.873 23.590 25.626
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€ 3,39Settlements hybrid exchange Y1 12 58 120
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€ 14,14Settlements hybrid exchange Y2 809 1.190 1.813 2.772
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€ 50,92Settlements hybrid exchange Y3 14.362 18.550 22.215 25.414
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€ 198,01Settlements hybrid exchange Y4 110.664 122.407 133.932 145.333
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€ 452,60Settlements hybrid exchange Y5 358.061 387.397 424.964 467.257
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43
0%
Sales from other sources (exchanges, treasury, advice)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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profit kickback margin exchange18861809101.3392.0393.11812.56716.23119.43822.23777.06985.24893.274101.214201.409217.911239.042262.832
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Net Revenues (EUR) 0 0 37 193 549 2.460 3.903 5.916 8.913 31.523 41.643 51.080 59.327 201.235 222.860 244.110 265.130 579.700 627.180 687.595 755.716
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note
ARPU Average Revenue per paying user (not x 1000)
10111643464645112114117119360361361361733733732732
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€ 3,73Cost per install (CPI) Source: emarketer (23) (33) (667) (723) (723) (722) (1.668) (2.601) (3.533) (2.601) (1.972) (1.973) (1.972) (1.973) (1.886) (1.886) (1.887) (1.886) (3.315) (3.314) (3.315)27-3
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€ 13,73Cost per Funded Account (2) (2) (49) (233) (485) (785) (1.156) (1.760) (2.690) (3.873) (5.002) (5.990) (6.853) (7.673) (8.488) (9.287) (10.077) (10.862) (11.752) (12.892) (14.175)
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€ 10,01Cost per next deposit (0) (0) (5) (42) (153) (353) (594) (884) (1.320) (1.998) (2.885) (3.803) (4.591) (5.260) (5.896) (6.529) (7.153) (7.767) (8.388) (9.071) (9.903)
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Variable aquisition Costs (25) (35) (721) (997) (1.361) (1.861) (3.418) (5.244) (7.544) (8.471) (9.859) (11.766) (13.416) (14.906) (16.270) (17.702) (19.118) (20.516) (23.455) (25.277) (27.393)
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0,78Server costs / user/ quarter (5) (12) (151) (302) (453) (604) (953) (1.497) (2.236) (2.780) (3.192) (3.605) (4.017) (4.430) (4.824) (5.219) (5.613) (6.008) (6.701) (7.394) (8.087)
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25%Variable costs DEVELOPERS fee & ICT (0) (0) (2) (12) (62) (185) (343) (516) (756) (1.149) (1.715) (2.357) (2.919) (3.376) (3.801) (4.226) (4.646) (5.057) (5.468) (5.897) (6.407)
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Variable Production Costs (5) (12) (153) (315) (516) (789) (1.297) (2.013) (2.992) (3.928) (4.908) (5.962) (6.936) (7.805) (8.626) (9.445) (10.259) (11.065) (12.169) (13.292) (14.494)
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Contribution Margin (30) (47) (837) (1.118) (1.328) (190) (812) (1.341) (1.622) 19.124 26.876 33.352 38.974 178.524 197.964 216.962 235.753 548.119 591.556 649.027 713.829
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60
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Online relations cost (88) (80) (80) (90) (100) (110) (120) (130) (140) (150) (180) (200) (220) (240) (260) (280) (300) (320) (340) (360) (380)
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Personnel cost (567) (110) (130) (150) (200) (700) (850) (950) (1.150) (1.400) (1.550) (1.800) (1.850) (1.900) (2.050) (2.200) (2.250) (2.400) (2.550) (2.700) (2.850)
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Support cost (44) (30) (60) (90) (110) (260) (275) (290) (305) (320) (335) (350) (365) (380) (395) (410) (425) (440) (455) (470) (485)
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External advice (86) (40) (40) (40) (42) (44) (53) (62) (71) (80) (89) (118) (147) (176) (205) (234) (263) (292) (321) (350) (379)
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Admin cost en miscellaneous (40) (40) (66) (96) (254) (500) (500) (500) (500) (600) (700) (700) (700) (800) (800) (900) (900) (800) (800) (900) (900)
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Operational Costs (825) (300) (376) (466) (706) (1.614) (1.798) (1.932) (2.166) (2.550) (2.854) (3.168) (3.282) (3.496) (3.710) (4.024) (4.138) (4.252) (4.466) (4.780) (4.994)
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EBITDA (855) (347) (1.213) (1.584) (2.034) (1.804) (2.610) (3.273) (3.788) 16.574 24.022 30.184 35.692 175.028 194.254 212.938 231.615 543.867 587.090 644.247 708.835
70
71
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Depreciation & Amortizations (45) (94) (143) (203) (308) (456) (642) (869) (1.136) (1.445) (1.795) (2.185) (2.616) (3.098) (3.620) (4.186) (4.788) (5.435)
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EBIT (855) (347) (1.213) (1.629) (2.128) (1.947) (2.813) (3.581) (4.244) 15.932 23.154 29.048 34.247 173.233 192.069 210.322 228.517 540.247 582.904 639.459 703.401
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Tax (25%) 214 87 303 396 508 451 652 818 947 (4.143) (6.006) (7.546) (8.923) (43.757) (48.563) (53.235) (57.904) (135.967) (146.772) (161.062) (177.209)
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NOPAT (641) (260) (910) (1.233) (1.619) (1.496) (2.160) (2.763) (3.297) 11.788 17.148 21.502 25.324 129.476 143.506 157.088 170.613 404.281 436.131 478.397 526.192
79
80
81
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Net income (641) (260) (910) (1.233) (1.619) (1.496) (2.160) (2.763) (3.297) 11.788 17.148 21.502 25.324 129.476 143.506 157.088 170.613 404.281 436.131 478.397 526.192
83
84
Investments18 + 19Q1 2020Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24
85
Application development513200200200200200 400 500 667 817 967 1.117 1.267 1.417 1.567 1.717 1.867 2.017 2.167 2.317 2.467
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Organization development13060120120100100 100 100 100 100 100 130 130 130 150250250300250300300
87
Security, compliance8030100100100100 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 525 550
88
Developers Academy3030307090200 350 650 850 1.075 1.300 1525 1.750 1.975 2200 2.425 2.650 2875 3.100 3.325 3550
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Total7533204504904906001.0501.4751.8672.2672.6673.0973.4973.8974.3174.8175.2175.6676.0176.4676.867
90
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Cash Flow Statement18 + 19Q1 2020Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 21Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 22Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24
92
NOPAT (641) (260) (910) (1.233) (1.619) (1.496) (2.160) (2.763) (3.297) 11.788 17.148 21.502 25.324 129.476 143.506 157.088 170.613 404.281 436.131 478.397 526.192
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CAPEX (753) (320) (450) (490) (490) (600) (1.050) (1.475) (1.867) (2.267) (2.667) (3.097) (3.497) (3.897) (4.317) (4.817) (5.217) (5.667) (6.017) (6.467) (6.867)
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Depreciations & Amortization 45 94 143 203 308 456 642 869 1.136 1.445 1.795 2.185 2.616 3.098 3.620 4.186 4.788 5.435
95
Tax benefit incidentals - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
96
97
Cash flow (1.394) (580) (1.360) (1.678) (2.015) (1.953) (3.007) (3.930) (4.708) 10.164 15.350 19.541 23.272 127.374 141.374 154.887 168.495 402.233 434.301 476.718 524.760
98
99
NPV @ 12%261.363348.521390.924
100
IRR44%51%55%
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