ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Question InfoContest PredictionsResolutionContest Scores
For comparison/personal interest use, not in contest; testing ML model of
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QuestionsSuggesting SourcePredictionbwlalaithionbendiniScore - bwScore - IalaithionScore - bendini
https://predictor-frontend-dot-moonbird-beshir.appspot.com
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World Politics
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US - The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/188808
0.750.780.71-0.2876820725-0.2484613593-0.3566749439Other Predictions On These QuestionsScores For Other Predictions On These Questions
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US - A department of the Federal Government is eliminated before the end of 2018
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190672
0.120.020.10-0.1278333715-0.02020270732-0.1053605157JBeshirAverage Prediction At Deadline
MB-Predictor At Deadline
MB-Predictor AllScore - JBeshirScore - AvgScore - MBP
Score - MBP with post-deadline info
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South America - FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190673
0.80.840.851-0.2231435513-0.1743533871-0.1625189295
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Middle East - Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019)
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190674
0.870.920.91-0.1392620673-0.08338160894-0.10536051570.60.7057140.79051911830.6682097912-0.5108256238-0.3485452227-0.2350654375-0.4031530961
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Middle East - Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190675
0.20.340.150-0.2231435513-0.415515444-0.16251892950.070.0950.04973116890.04200373217-0.07257069283-0.09982033528-0.05101035431-0.04291139682
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Middle East - Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190676
0.250.190.150-0.2876820725-0.2107210313-0.16251892950.870.8320.90854012970.9223791957-0.1392620673-0.1839228382-0.09591622078-0.08079886482
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Africa - Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019
http://socratic-form-microscopy.com/2018/01/03/2018-predictions/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190677
0.80.870.41-0.2231435513-0.1392620673-0.91629073190.90.8860.92888939380.9411840439-0.1053605157-0.1210383284-0.07376560667-0.06061657522
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Technology0.10.1933330.10049694030.05296471715-0.1053605157-0.2148443353-0.1059128241-0.05441892899
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Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7n4xam/predictions_for_2018_thread/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190678
0.50.180.40-0.6931471806-0.1984509387-0.51082562380.120.17750.084162920710.05695204064-0.1278333715-0.1954067963-0.08791679117-0.05863813936
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New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7n4xam/predictions_for_2018_thread/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190679
0.80.930.451-0.2231435513-0.07257069283-0.79850769620.90.7380.78123044970.9152184725-0.1053605157-0.3038114544-0.2468851027-0.08859247447
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A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying "something awful" causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/7n4xam/predictions_for_2018_thread/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190680
0.20.340.250-0.2231435513-0.415515444-0.2876820725
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The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018
http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/06/predictions-for-2018/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190681
0.40.710.40-0.5108256238-1.237874356-0.51082562380.650.3883330.37612348790.2408131361-1.049822124-0.4915672622-0.4718028276-0.2755073344
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Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018
http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/06/predictions-for-2018/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190682
0.70.770.951-0.3566749439-0.2613647641-0.051293294390.80.7133330.76172530650.56324476-0.2231435513-0.3378069269-0.2721692784-0.5740410028
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Effective Altruism0.20.24750.097890071570.08183804154-0.2231435513-0.2843542824-0.1030188945-0.08538147859
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GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018
https://blog.givewell.org/2018/04/19/research-plans-2018/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190683
0.670.650.650-1.108662625-1.049822124-1.0498221240.620.5260.18556325140.03823819384-0.9675840263-0.7465479573-0.2052585106-0.03898846172
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GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation
https://blog.givewell.org/2017/11/27/our-top-charities-for-giving-season-2017/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190684
0.80.820.850-1.609437912-1.714798428-1.8971199850.750.79250.85457634930.9426770806-0.2876820725-0.2325627732-0.1571494308-0.05903149335
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Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018
https://blog.givewell.org/2017/11/27/our-top-charities-for-giving-season-2017/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190685
0.750.850.81-0.2876820725-0.1625189295-0.2231435513
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Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018
https://blog.givewell.org/2017/11/27/our-top-charities-for-giving-season-2017/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190686
0.70.750.750-1.203972804-1.386294361-1.3862943610.70.66750.6475933790.5786559582-1.203972804-1.101115419-1.042969597-0.8643055775
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Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiserhttps://intelligence.org/2017/12/01/miris-2017-fundraiser/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190687
0.50.550.40-0.6931471806-0.7985076962-0.51082562380.80.81750.88127541540.9161262512-1.609437912-1.701005106-2.130948884-2.478442601
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Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190688
0.30.340.30-0.3566749439-0.415515444-0.35667494390.750.80.90341103080.8957781196-0.2876820725-0.2231435513-0.1015776456-0.1100625311
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Rationalist Community0.650.71250.76200264690.6834061146-1.049822124-1.246532419-1.435495727-1.150135445
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Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018
http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/06/predictions-for-2018/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190689
0.20.230.150-0.2231435513-0.2613647641-0.16251892950.50.550.26751458640.4041665792-0.6931471806-0.7985076962-0.3113118515-0.5177941464
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LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018
http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/02/06/predictions-for-2018/
https://predictionbook.com/predictions/190690
0.70.720.751-0.3566749439-0.328504067-0.28768207250.450.34750.13705110550.11351154-0.5978370008-0.4269441398-0.1473998081-0.120487171
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Totals-9.358221122-9.594999615-10.00445940.150.1985710.081693470480.05115337297-0.1625189295-0.2213588948-0.08522403394-0.05250810879
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0.80.74250.7795489430.9099919796-0.2231435513-0.2977324083-0.2490398047-0.09431949314
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Totals-9.745510204-9.576568147-7.60983863-7.210134321
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