COVID-19 Response Timeline Comparison

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	W	X	AA
1	Days since 3+ deaths	ITA (2/23/20)		GBR (+14D)		DEU (+17D)		FRA (+8D)		ESP (+11D)		USA (+8D)		SWE (+18D)		KOR (+0D)		PRC Official (-35D)		PRC Cremation Est. (-35D)

2	0	3		3		3		3		3		6		2		6		3		47
3	1	7	133%	4	33%	6	100%	4	33%	5	67%	7	17%	3	50%	8	33%	6	100%	95	102%	Daily values are cumulative deaths.
4	2	10	43%	6	50%	7	17%	4	0%	10	100%	11	57%	6	100%	10	25%	6	0%	95	0%
5	3	12	20%	8	33%	9	29%	6	50%	17	70%	12	9%	7	17%	12	20%	17	183%	268	182%		100 tests per day per million population
6	4	17	42%	8	0%	11	22%	9	50%	28	65%	14	17%	10	43%	13	8%	18	6%	284	6%		Lockdown imposed
7	5	21	24%	8	0%	17	55%	11	22%	35	25%	17	21%	11	10%	13	0%	26	44%	410	44%		Lockdown and test milestone on the same day
8	6	29	38%	21	163%	24	41%	19	73%	54	54%	21	24%	16	45%	16	23%	56	115%	884	116%		Corner turned
9	7	34	17%	21	0%	28	17%	19	0%	84	56%	22	5%	20	25%	17	6%	80	43%	1262	43%
10	8	52	53%	56	167%	44	57%	33	74%	133	58%	28	27%	21	5%	28	65%	106	33%	1673	33%			Citations:
11	9	79	52%	56	0%	67	52%	48	45%	195	47%	36	29%	25	19%	28	0%	132	25%	2083	25%	1. Corner turned indicates seven consecutive days of decreasing		Deaths per day: avatorl.org
12	10	107	35%	72	29%	84	25%	61	27%	289	48%	40	11%	36	44%	35	25%	170	29%	2682	29%	daily deaths.		Italy tests: https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/tree/master/schede-riepilogative/regioni
13	11	148	38%	138	92%	94	12%	79	30%	342	18%	47	18%	62	72%	35	0%	213	25%	3361	25%	2. Italy lockdowns: March 8, when the national government		UK tests: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/20/coronavirus-uk-testing-people-tested/
14	12	197	33%	178	29%	123	31%	91	15%	533	56%	54	15%	77	24%	42	20%	259	22%	4087	22%	imposed lockdown measures on northern Italy.		Germany, France tests: https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/147830
15	13	233	18%	234	31%	157	28%	91	0%	623	17%	63	17%	105	36%	44	5%	304	17%	4797	17%	3. UK: lockdowns imposed 3/23.		Spain tests: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/spain-to-boost-coronavirus-testing-as-deaths-surpass-1300-idUSKBN2180ZV
16	14	366	57%	282	21%	206	31%	148	63%	830	33%	85	35%	105	0%	50	14%	361	19%	5696	19%	4. German lockdowns: March 21, when several states imposed		USA tests: https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
17	15	463	27%	336	19%	267	30%	148	0%	1043	26%	108	27%	110	5%	53	6%	425	18%	6706	18%	lockdown measures.		South Korea tests: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102818/south-korea-covid-19-test-total-number/
18	16	631	36%	423	26%	342	28%	148	0%	1375	32%	118	9%	146	33%	54	2%	490	15%	7732	15%	5. France lockdowns: March 17.		France tests: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/content/download/237536/2535424
19	17	827	31%	466	10%	433	27%	243	64%	1772	29%	200	69%	180	23%	60	11%	563	15%	8884	15%	6. Spain lockdowns: March 16.		Crematoria estimates: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html
20	18	1016	23%	580	24%	533	23%	450	85%	2311	30%	244	22%	239	33%	66	10%	632	12%	9972	12%	7. USA lockdowns: NY government imposed lockdown starting
21	19	1266	25%	761	31%	645	21%	562	25%	2808	22%	307	26%	308	29%	66	0%	723	14%	11408	14%	March 23. Other regions started earlier, but NY has the highest		Crematoria estimates methodology:
22	20	1441	14%	1021	34%	775	20%	674	20%	3647	30%	427	39%	358	16%	72	9%	811	12%	12797	12%	concentration of cases and seems like a good place to draw the line.		1. Take Wuhan deaths as of 3/27 (2,535).
23	21	1809	26%	1231	21%	920	19%	862	28%	4365	20%	552	29%	373	4%	75	4%	908	12%	14327	12%	8. China lockdowns: Hubei provice lockdowns started January 23.		2. Divide by an estimate of total deaths in Wuhan (~40,000.) This is on the
24	22	2158	19%	1411	15%	1107	20%	1102	28%	5138	18%	706	28%	401	8%	75	0%	1011	11%	15953	11%	9. Spain tests: conservative guess based on a stated capacity of		low end of the range estimated by Wuhan citizens in the article.
25	23	2503	16%	1793	27%	1275	15%	1333	21%	5982	16%	942	33%	477	19%	81	8%	1113	10%	17562	10%	15,000-20,000 per day on March 21.		3. Invert that factor to obtain an underreporting factor (about 15).
26	24	2978	19%	2357	31%	1444	13%	1698	27%	6803	14%	1209	28%	591	24%	84	4%	1366	23%	21554	23%	10. France conducted 6500 tests on March 24, I assume they hit the		4. Naively multiply China deaths by that underreporting factor.
27	25	3405	14%	2926	24%	1584	10%	1997	18%	7716	13%	1581	31%	687	16%	91	8%	1488	9%	23479	9%	100 tests per day per million milestone on the 25th.		This is not a very good methodology, because it doesn't capture differences
28	26	4032	18%	3611	23%	1810	14%	2317	16%	8464	10%	2026	28%	793	15%	94	3%	1520	2%	23984	2%	11. Test numbers per day not available for China.		between Hubei, where the virus overwhelmed the health care system, and
29	27	4825	20%	4320	20%	2016	11%	2611	13%	9387	11%	2467	22%	870	10%	102	9%	1662	9%	26225	9%	12. Sweden: added March 26. Daily test numbers not (yet) located.		other provinces, where it ostensibly didn't, but matches the observations of
30	28	5476	13%	4943	14%	2349	17%	3030	16%	10348	10%	2978	21%	887	2%	104	2%	1765	6%	27850	6%	Sweden does not evidently intend to enforce lockdowns, and is		residents of Wuhan better than the official numbers.
31	29	6077	11%	5385	9%	2607	11%	3532	17%	11198	8%	3873	30%	899	1%	111	7%	1863	6%	29396	6%	included here as a control of sorts.
32	30	6820	12%	6171	15%	2767	6%	4043	14%	11947	7%	4757	23%	919	2%	120	8%	2002	7%	31590	7%	13. I've seen unconfirmed reports that Germany and France are not		Note that British sources have suggested that the actual underreporting factor
33	31	7503	10%	7111	15%	2767	0%	5398	34%	12641	6%	5926	25%	1033	12%	126	5%	2114	6%	33357	6%	counting deaths not occurring in hospitals as coronavirus deaths.		is closer to 40.
34	32	8215	9%	7993	12%	3053	10%	6520	21%	13341	6%	7087	20%	1203	16%	131	4%	2236	6%	35282	6%	14. PRC Cremation Estimated numbers based on Radio Free Asia
35	33	9134	11%	8974	12%	3225	6%	7574	16%	14045	5%	8407	19%	1333	11%	139	6%	2236	0%	35282	0%	reporting, indicating that Wuhan crematoria ran at full capacity for
36	34	10023	10%	9892	10%	3325	3%	8093	7%	14792	5%	9619	14%	1400	5%	144	4%	2441	9%	38517	9%	a long period of time. See methodology note at far right.
37	35	10779	8%	10629	7%	3835	15%	8926	10%	15447	4%	10783	12%	1511	8%	152	6%	2443	0%	38548	0%	15. Peak daily deaths removed for bothersome-bookkeeping reasons.
38	36	11591	8%	11347	7%	4083	6%	10343	16%	16081	4%	12722	18%	1540	2%	158	4%	2593	6%	40915	6%
39	37	12428	7%	12129	7%	4383	7%	10887	5%	16606	3%	14695	16%	1580	3%	162	3%	2663	3%	42020	3%
40	38	13155	6%	12894	6%	4490	2%	12228	12%	17209	4%	16478	12%	1765	12%	165	2%	2715	2%	42840	2%
41	39	13915	6%	13759	7%	4617	3%	13215	8%	17756	3%	18586	13%	1937	10%	169	2%	2744	1%	43298	1%
42	40	14681	6%	14607	6%	4893	6%	13851	5%	18056	2%	20463	10%	2021	4%	174	3%	2788	2%	43992	2%
43	41	15362	5%	15498	6%	5064	3%	14412	4%	18708	4%	22020	8%	2152	6%	177	2%	2835	2%	44734	2%
44	42	15887	3%	16095	4%	5310	5%	14986	4%	19315	3%	23529	7%	2192	2%	183	3%	2870	1%	45286	1%
45	43	16523	4%	16550	3%	5606	6%	15748	5%	20002	4%	25832	10%	2194	0%	186	2%	2912	1%	45949	1%
46	44	17127	4%	17378	5%	5791	3%	17188	9%	20043	0%	28326	10%	2274	4%	192	3%	2945	1%	46469	1%
47	45	17669	3%	18111	4%	5908	2%	17941	4%	20453	2%	32917	16%	2355	4%	200	4%	2981	1%	47037	1%
48	46	18279	3%	18751	4%	6007	2%	19345	8%	20852	2%	36774	12%	2462	5%	204	2%	3013	1%	47542	1%
49	47	18849	3%	19527	4%	6157	2%	19744	2%	21282	2%	38665	5%	2586	5%	208	2%	3042	1%	48000	1%
50	48	19468	3%	20341	4%	6345	3%	20292	3%	21717	2%	40662	5%	2653	3%	211	1%	3070	1%	48442	1%
51	49	19899	2%	20754	2%	6498	2%	20829	3%	22157	2%	42095	4%	2669	1%	214	1%	3097	1%	48868	1%
52	50	20465	3%	21117	2%	6654	2%	21373	3%	22524	2%	44445	6%	2679	0%	217	1%	3120	1%	49231	1%
53	51	21067	3%	21705	3%	6767	2%	21889	2%	22902	2%	46584	5%	2769	3%	222	2%	3136	1%	49483	1%
54	52	21645	3%	26126	20%	6843	1%	22279	2%	23190	1%	49955	7%	2854	3%	225	1%	3161	1%	49878	1%
55	53	22170	2%	26802	3%	6897	1%	22648	2%	23521	1%	51950	4%	2941	3%	229	2%	3172	0%	50051	0%
56	54	22745	3%	27543	3%	7024	2%	22890	1%	23822	1%	53756	3%	3040	3%	230	0%	3180	0%	50178	0%
57	55	23227	2%	28165	2%	7024	0%	23327	2%	24275	2%	54882	2%	3175	4%	232	1%	3193	0%	50383	0%
58	56	23660	2%	28480	1%	7306	4%	23694	2%	24543	1%	56260	3%	3220	1%	234	1%	3203	0%	50540	0%
59	57	24114	2%	28769	1%	7423	2%	24121	2%	24543	0%	58356	4%	3225	0%	236	1%	3217	0%	50761	0%
60	58	24648	2%	29461	2%	7541	2%	24410	1%	25100	2%	60968	4%	3256	1%	237	0%	3230	0%	50966	0%
61	59	25085	2%	30110	2%	7580	1%	24628	1%	25264	1%	62997	3%	3313	2%	238	0%	3241	0%	51140	0%
62	60	25549	2%	30649	2%	7600	0%	24763	1%	25428	1%	64944	3%	3460	4%	240	1%	3249	0%	51266	0%
63	61	25969	2%	31276	2%	7692	1%	24900	1%	25613	1%	66370	2%	3529	2%	240	0%	3253	0%	51329	0%
64	62	26384	2%	31622	1%	7769	1%	25204	1%	25857	1%	67683	2%	3646	3%	242	1%	3259	0%	51424	0%
65	63	26644	1%	31890	1%	7892	2%	25537	1%	26070	1%	68923	2%	3674	1%	243	0%	3265	0%	51519	0%
66	64	26977	1%	32101	1%	7915	0%	25812	1%	26299	1%	71065	3%	3679	0%	244	0%	3274	0%	51661	0%
67	65	27359	1%	32729	2%	7928	0%	25990	1%	26478	1%	73432	3%			246	1%	3281	0%	51771	0%
68	66	27682	1%	33224	2%	7969	1%	26233	1%	26621	1%	75663	3%			247	0%	3285	0%	51834	0%
69	67	27967	1%	33653	1%	7993	0%	26313	0%	26744	0%	77181	2%			248	0%	3291	0%	51929	0%
70	68	28236	1%	34038	1%			26383	0%	26920	1%	78796	2%			250	1%	3296	0%	52008	0%
71	69	28710	2%	34506	1%			26646	1%	27104	1%	79527	1%			250	0%	3299	0%	52055	0%
72	70	28884	1%	34676	0%			26994	1%	27321	1%	80683	1%			252	1%	3304	0%	52134	0%
73	71	29079	1%					27077	0%	27459	1%	82377	2%			254	1%	3308	0%	52197	0%
74	72	29315	1%					27428	1%	27563	0%	84120	2%			255	0%	3309	0%	52213	0%
75	73	29684	1%					27532	0%	27563	0%	85899	2%			256	0%	3316	0%	52323	0%
76	74	29958	1%					27532	0%			87531	2%			256	0%	3322	0%	52418	0%
77	75	30201	1%					28111	2%			88755	1%			256	0%	3326	0%	52481	0%
78	76	30395	1%									89563	1%			256	0%	3330	0%	52544	0%
79	77	30560	1%									90402	1%			256	0%	3333	0%	52592	0%
80	78	30739	1%													258	1%	3335	0%	52623	0%
81	79	30911	1%													259	0%	3335	0%	52623	0%
82	80	31106	1%													260	0%	3337	0%	52655	0%
83	81	31368	1%													260	0%	3339	0%	52686	0%
84	82	31610	1%													262	1%	3340	0%	52702	0%
85	83	31763	0%													262	0%	3343	0%	52750	0%
86	84	31908	0%													263	0%	3343	0%	52750	0%
87	85																	3345	0%	52781	0%
88	86																	3345	0%	52781	0%
89	87																	3346	0%	52797	0%
90	88																	3346	0%	52797	0%
91	89																	4636	39%	73152	39%
92	90																	4636	0%	73152	0%
93	91																	4636	0%	73152	0%
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