[PUBLIC] Aquatic Life Institute Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 2024

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1	ACE's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Aquatic Life institute
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3		Best guess	Upper bound	Lower bound	Source type	Source link	Uncertainty	Notes
4	BENEFITS
5	Program 1. Corporate and Institutional Outreach
6	Total number of farmed shrimps that will be electrically stunned pre-slaughter as a result of ALI's work over the total expected duration of the impact	902,560,091	4,287,225,770	36,525,395	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
7	Total number of farmed shrimps that will get environmental enrichment as a result of ALI's work over the total expected duration of the impact	26,419,369,847	117,805,977,905	0	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
8	SADs per shrimp stunned	0.10			Estimate (ACE)		Medium	We created our own estimate for SADs averted per shrimp, see tab "SADs Estimate"
9	SADs for the total number of farmed shrimps that will be electrically stunned as a result of ALI's work over the total expected duration of the impact	87,805,261	417,081,347	3,553,361	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
10	Number of corporate commitments secured for farmed shrimps	7			Charity's evidence		Low
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12	Individual commitments secured by ALI
13	A major UK retailer commitment
14	Shrimps covered under the commitment annually	294,938,466			Charity's evidence		Medium	The number of animals comes from Tesco tonnages April 23–March 24. The weight of an individual shrimp was estimated by ALI.
15	Shrimps that the retailer estimates will be stunned from 2026 (currently zero)	222,263,090			Charity's evidence		Medium
16	% of success contributed by ALI	17.50%	21.67%	13.33%	Estimate (ACE)		High	These numbers are combined values from ALI and external experts.
17	How many years of impact do we expect?	15	36	4	Estimate (ACE)		Medium	Best guess based on ALI identifying a gap in the industry and there not being an extensive number of similar work done by others.
18	How certain are we that the retailer will implement their stunning goals?	55.00%	75.00%	35.00%	Estimate (ACE)		High	ALI's estimate was 65% best guess and 45% and 85% lower bound and UB. This was adjusted lower due to the following: The follow-through rates for corporate commitments are estimated between 30–60% (RP report). Other considerations that could impact this commitment specifically are that this ALI is working with the retailer and not using any negative pressure campaigns, and that the deadline is very short for implementation.
19	Total shrimps stunned due to ALI's intervention over all years of expected impact	179,003,726	751,980,845	8,383,252	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
20	Waitrose commitment
21	Shrimps sold by Waitrose annually	350,737,635	406,536,804	294,938,466	Estimate (ACE)		High	Waitrose UK market share in 2023 was 4.4%, M&S UK market share in 2023 was 3.7%. Waitrose has 19% market share more, so our best guess is 19% more shrimps sold. Lower bound is the M&S value and upper bound is 19% more than the best guess.
22	How many shrimps will be stunned?	280,590,108	406,536,804	176,963,080	Estimate (ACE)		High	Guess based on how other retailers aim to stun between 80–100% of their shrimps sold, adjusted lower bound to 60 to be more conservative
23	Estimate of when stunning will be implemented	2028	2026	2030	Charity's guess		High	ALI provided their estimate for the probability of the stunning being implemented in the next 3–5 years. The timeline is in line with the other retailers, a bit longer due to the lack of a clear plan by Waitrose.
24	% of success contributed by ALI	20.83%	25.00%	16.67%	Estimate (ACE)		High	These numbers are combined values from ALI and external experts.
25	How many years of impact do we expect (starting from 2023)?	15	36	4	Estimate (ACE)		Medium	Best guess based on ALI identifying a gap in the industry and there not being an extensive amount of similar work done by others.
26	How certain are we that Waitrose will implement their stunning goals?	50.00%	70.00%	30.00%	Estimate (ACE)		High	ALI's estimate was 60% best guess and 40% and 80% lower bound and UB. This was adjusted lower due to the following: The follow-through rates for corporate commitments are estimated between 30–60% (RP report). Other considerations that could impact this commitment specifically is that Waitrose has not publicly committed to implement electrical stunning by a specific year, so the rate is lower than RP's research.
27	Total shrimps stunned thanks to ALI over all years of expected impact	195,487,225	1,481,235,061	0	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
28	Tesco
29	Shrimps sold by Tesco annually	520,000,000			Retailer		Low
30	Current rate of electrical stunning in shrimps	16.3%			Retailer	2022-23 figure 16 here	High
31	Estimate of when full stunning will be implemented	2026			Retailer		Medium
32	% of success contributed by ALI	24.17%	28.33%	20.00%	Estimate (ACE)		High	These numbers are combined values from ALI and external experts.
33	How many years of impact do we expect (starting from 2023)?	15	36	4	Estimate (ACE)		Medium	Best guess, based on ALI identifying a gap in the industry and there not being an extensive amount of similar work done by others.
34	How certain are we that Tesco will implement their stunning goals?	60.00%	80.00%	40.00%	Estimate (ACE)		High	ALI's estimate was 70% best guess and 50% and 90% lower bound and UB. This was adjusted lower due to the following: The follow-through rates for corporate commitments are estimated between 30–60% (RP report). Other considerations that could impact this commitment specifically is that Tesco is working with the retailer and not using any negative pressure campaigns, and that the deadline is very short for implementation.
35	Total shrimps stunned thanks to ALI over all years of expected impact	528,069,141	2,054,009,865	28,142,143	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
36	GLOBALGAP
37	Finfish covered under GLOBALGAP (individuals)	1,238,202,417	1,457,341,390	1,020,407,854.98	Estimate (external)	Individual number 2013-2015 Tonnage from an internal data ALI provided	Medium	There are numbers from 2013–15 with the amount of individual finish and tonnage. These numbers were adjusted based on the ratio between the tonnage in 2013–15 and 2022–23.
38	Whiteleg shrimps under GLOBALGAP (tonnes)	96,000			Charity's evidence		Low
39	Whiteleg shrimps individuals	5,189,189,189			Estimate (ACE)		Medium	Using ALI's internal estimates with data from retailers to estimate the number of individual shrimps
40	Shrimps with environmental enrichment before commitment	25.00%	0.00%	50.00%	Estimate (ACE)		High	There is no available information about the existing environmental enrichment for shrimps. ALI's comment: "Environmental enrichment is still a relatively novel topic for aquaculture producers to consider. As such, we can reasonably assume there were limited enrichments provided, especially for shrimp where their species’ sentience is still less accepted than finfish, prior to this initial commitment."
41	Shrimps with environmental enrichment after commitment	75.00%	100.00%	50.00%	Charity's guess		High	The environmental enrichment is now a "minor must" for the producers. A producer must comply with 95% of minor musts. This means that there might be a possibility that this is not implemented, if it falls into the 5% of minor musts that the producer decides to not implement while remaining compliant. We followed up with ALI about the minor must 95% compliance rate in this case, as it could be that a high rate of producers would not comply with this ask if it is harder to implement than others. It appears that the wording of the certification allows for some flexibility for retailers to choose not to implement this. However, the limited information shared by the certifier and the producers does not allow us to make a more precise guess about the possible implementation rate of the enrichment. For that reason, we kept the range of values broad.
42	How many years of impact do we expect (starting from 2023)?	15	36	4	Estimate (ACE)		Medium	Best guess based on ALI identifying a gap in the industry and there not being an extensive amount of similar work done by others.
43	Total shrimps with environmental enrichment thanks to ALI over all years of expected impact	26,419,369,847	117,805,977,905	0	Estimate (ACE)		Medium
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45	Other commitments that ALI achieved in 2023
46	Naturland The commitment has been secured and includes environmental enrichment, feed composition, and eyestalk ablation prohibition. Naturland does not have the numbers of animals impacted.				Charity's evidence		Low
47	RSPCA The commitment prohibits certifying octopus farming and eyestalk ablation for shrimps, but no shrimps are currently certified under them.				Charity's evidence		Low
48	Friend of the Sea The commitment prohibits certifying octopus farming and eyestalk ablation, but no shrimps are currently certified under them.				Charity's evidence		Low
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50	Past 4 year growth of the UK shrimp industry per year	0.03%	1.53%	-1.47%	Estimate (external)	Shrimp market in the UK	Medium
51	Discounts
52	General annual discount rate	4%			Estimate (external)		Low	This is applied both by GiveWell and Charity Entrepreneurship
53	COSTS
54	Program 1 expenditures annually (USD)	$212,825.90
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56	COST/BENEFIT
57	Program 1: total shrimps stunned per dollar	4,947.64	23,501.67	200.22
58	Program 1: total shrimps with environmental enrichment per dollar	868,952.46	3,874,725.05	0.00
59	Program 1: total SADs averted through electrical shrimp stunning per dollar	481.33	2,286.35	19.48
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