ABCDEFMNQRSTUVWXYZAAACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAPAQARASATAUAVAWAXAYAZBABBBCBDBEBFBGBHBIBJBKBLBMBNBOBPBQBRBSBT
1
This is a spreadsheet based off of vote and black vote correlation (Where no polling is available) - It IS a forecast
2
55.32%44.68%1307459410020530234494041097891526939690
3
If Sanders wins the "soft total" and is not nominee, his supporters will (rightly) call a robbery.56.26%43.74%
Votes per delegate
4
2206178213,162,115.0010,231,160.0023,747,671.0011,501,454.0027,665,834.00-166066159675741
5
PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES
%VOTES (Most recent polls)
total votesDelegatesDELEGATES FORECASTSOFT PLEDGED ACTUALDIFFERENCEROLLING DELEGATE FORECAST
Tallies thus far and estimated going forward of total vote
Running estimate of %s for Sanders/Clinton
HRC Delegate lead
Actual votes5494772008 Turnout
GOP Turnout advantgage
6
Latest pollDateTypeStateClintonSanders(check)availableClintonSandersClintonSandersHRCSHRCSandersHRCSanders
Assumes states thus far are representative (Will become more accurate)
HRCSandersClinton %Trump watchGOP TurnoutDEMGOPTurnout differentialTrump leads HRCHRCSandersBlack %GOP TypeDEM Type
7
01/02/2016Iowa#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!44#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2321#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.086151568#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!85,682.798516817170950.15%170,850.46
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/iowa-caucus-turnout-what-it-means_b_9141408.html
4542718687422700012500015165-402564.23372540562.90Iowa#NUM!
8
09/02/2016New Hampshire#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!24#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!915#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.5924463096#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!95,252.0015158425477638.59%246,836.00
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-02-09
100406287603
http://www.unionleader.com/Record-turnout-for-Presidential-Primary
2659182348513282751546.0510584101061.10New Hampshire#NUM!
9
20/02/2016Nevada#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!35#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2015#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.8639842014#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!44,234.12397668400052.66%84,000.00
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/feb/22/nevada-democratic-caucus-turnout-lower-than-in-200/
345317500012000044324-9000-9703-5.66221226518.10Nevada#NUM!
10
23/02/2016South CarolinaSouth Carolina#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!53#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3914#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.308318934#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!271,515.009553636705173.97%367,051.00239851738003532468445677370952-3166433.576962682427.90South Carolina#NUM!
11
01/03/2016Alabama#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!53#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!449#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.308318934#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!309,926.007640139788380.22%386,327.003717168561395366354582566179036.547044848926.20Alabama#NUM!
12
ManualManual01/03/2016American Samoa0.010.010.0265050336421-1#NUM!#NUM!0.14811157740.00000014811157740.0000001481115774#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!162.006123772.65%223.00115-222-161-88.1041310.01American Samoa0
13
01/03/2016Arkansas#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!32#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2210#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.7899284127#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!144,578.006407421551969.29%208,652.00129866397482314234216550181963-1471229.68657264076.40Arkansas#NUM!
14
01/03/2016Colorado#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!66#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2838#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.629227351#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!49,254.007193012159240.64%121,184.000012097170229-121592-49254-100.00175918934.00Colorado#NUM!
15
01/03/2016Georgia#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!102#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!7329#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.517896816#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!543,006.0021433475356071.70%757,340.0050074412904631060851963541536903-4226226.277438739130.50Georgia#NUM!
16
01/03/2016Massachusetts#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!91#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!4645#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.246358924#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!603,782.00586718117085750.72%1,190,500.002988276098321255644499018-561025-304955-31.5113126130386.60Massachusetts#NUM!
17
01/03/2016Minnesota#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!77#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3146#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.900765243#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!73,510.0011813518531338.36%191,645.002365111169621406662828-73617-49859-24.79237125685.20Minnesota#NUM!
18
01/03/2016Oklahoma#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!38#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1721#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.9380399901#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!139,336.0017405633554944.46%313,392.00130142459558417207335004124009-919415.60819682887.40Oklahoma#NUM!
19
01/03/2016Tennessee#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!67#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!4423#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.653912614#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!245,302.0012033537107867.09%365,637.003327038544256247645538154833478740139.445575523216.70Tennessee#NUM!
20
01/03/2016Texas#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!222#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!14775#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!5.480128363#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!934,999.00475561142248966.29%1,410,560.0075316628151161392627-18183332.866361634111.80Texas#NUM!
21
01/03/2016Vermont#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!16#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!016#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.3949642064#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!18,333.0011586513048713.66%134,198.001940759538-709491074-37.34072421.00Vermont#NUM!
22
01/03/2016Virginia#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!95#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6233#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.345099975#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!503,356.0027550978438864.63%778,865.003560261025799241411-14733013.348119834919.40Virginia#NUM!
23
05/03/2016Kansas32.3067.701003332.367.7112233924-22#NUM!#NUM!0.81461367560.0026312021720.005514934584#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!12,593.00264503904332.25%39,043.00170627311634073446930.38139911025.90Kansas195
24
Manual05/03/2016Louisiana#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!51#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3714#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.258948408#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2216157224229385775.42%293,857.001248183011767319-967971.235990516032.00Louisiana#NUM!
25
05/03/2016Nebraska43.6056.401002543.656.41114251015-11#NUM!#NUM!0.61713157250.0026906936560.003480622069#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!14,340.00191203346042.86%33,460.0011953119462116116110519170.66143412754.50Nebraska113
26
06/03/2016Maine35.5064.3099.82535.5711422864.428857729162591600#NUM!#NUM!0.61713157250.0021908170820.003968156011#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!19,307.1434,962.865427035.58%54,270.00607018627-35643-13237-48.90214521851.20Maine30
27
08/03/2016Michigan#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!130#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6367#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3.209084177#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!570,950.00590387118383449.16%1,161,337.004812921318308134474-896585.379063881214.20Michigan#NUM!
28
08/03/2016Mississippi#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!36#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!324#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.8886694643#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!182,283.003628522055283.40%218,568.00191202403956183404891929.375696907137.00Mississippi#NUM!
29
12/03/2016Mariana Islands50.0050.0010065050336421-1#NUM!#NUM!0.14811157740.00074055788690.0007405578869#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!102.006518961.08%167.0034347128224142.7326330.00Mariana Islands0
30
15/03/2016Florida#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!214#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!14173#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!5.28264626#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1,097,398.00566605170287465.95%1,664,003.0010772222355198652324-2017616.077783776216.00Florida#NUM!
31
15/03/2016Illinois#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!156#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!7878#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3.850901012#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1,017,004.00982330201569050.87%1,999,334.005569171434013-581677-460087-16.86130391259414.50Illinois#NUM!
32
15/03/2016Missouri#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!71#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3635#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.752653666#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!310,600.0030907362606050.12%619,673.003820949337843077247149419.738628883111.60Missouri#NUM!
33
15/03/2016North Carolina#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!107#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6047#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.64132313#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!616,381.00460318112923157.25%1,076,699.0045815211387269495-1582290.4210273979421.50North Carolina#NUM!
34
15/03/2016Ohio#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!143#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!8162#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3.529992594#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!679,264.00513551120216056.95%1,192,815.0072758620430458408854832225.918386828312.20Ohio#NUM!
35
22/03/2016Arizona#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!75#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!4233#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.851394717#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!231,748.0015998340148359.16%391,731.002464795235841221011473113.20551848484.10Arizona#NUM!
36
22/03/2016Idaho#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!23#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!518#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.5677610467#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!5,061.00186382369421.36%23,699.00624742222201985265741380.73101210350.60Idaho#NUM!
37
22/03/2016Utah#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!33#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!627#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.8146136756#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!11,096.00431105445520.47%54,206.00239251713281168731282951.76184915971.10Utah#NUM!
38
26/03/2016Alaska#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!16#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!313#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.3949642064#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1,954.00866310,617.0018.40%10,617.4773462193011313539234.766516663.30Alaska#NUM!
39
14/05/2016Democrats abroad31.0069.0010013316949134900#NUM!#NUM!0.32090841770.00099481609480.002214268082#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!10,689.00237793457031.01%34,468.0000-34570-10689-100.00267226420.00
Democrats abroad
0
40
26/03/2016Hawaii50.0050.00100255050131325817-55#NUM!#NUM!0.61713157250.0030856578620.003085657862#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!10,125.00235303371630.08%33,655.00567313380-20336-4452-43.18126613841.60Hawaii40
41
CAUCUS26/03/2016Washington#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!101#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2774#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.493211553#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!62,330.00167,670.0023000027.10%230,000.0040300753150830150834067739.59230922663.60Washington#NUM!
42
05/04/2016Wisconsin#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!86#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3848#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.122932609#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!432,770.00567943100071343.25%1,000,713.003863761101154100441-463944.7811389118326.30Wisconsin#NUM!
43
09/04/2016Wyoming50.0050.0010014505077147700#NUM!#NUM!0.34559368060.0017279684030.001727968403#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2,258.003054531242.51%5,312.0070971-4341-2188-69.093234360.80Wyoming11
44
19/04/2016New York#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!247#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!139108#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6.097259936#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1,037,425.00752928179009357.95%1,790,353.00518601857250-932843-518824-35.247463697215.90New York#NUM!
45
26/04/2016Connecticut#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!55#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2827#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.357689459#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!170,075.0015241032833952.74%322,485.00123367213226-115113-46708-21.266074564510.10Connecticut#NUM!
46
26/04/2016Delaware#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!21#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!129#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.5183905209#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!55,955.00366599364760.42%92,614.004247269915-23732-13483-14.514663407321.40Delaware#NUM!
47
26/04/2016Maryland#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!95#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6134#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.345099975#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!533,252.0028128084605665.47%814,532.00236623434607-411449-296629-32.138742827329.40Maryland#NUM!
48
26/04/2016Pennsylvania#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!189#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!10683#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!4.665514688#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!918,964.00719960169265156.07%1,638,924.008927021573361-119290-26262-3.658669867410.80Pennsylvania#NUM!
49
26/04/2016Rhode Island#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!24#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1113#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.5924463096#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!52,749.006699312496044.05%119,742.003905962331-62629-13690-33.44479551535.70Rhode Island#NUM!
50
03/05/2016Indiana#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!83#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3944#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.048876821#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!303,387.0033526163864847.50%638,648.00587706110876847012028431926.90777976209.10Indiana#NUM!
51
07/03/2016Guam50.0050.0010075050447431-1#NUM!#NUM!0.17279684030.00086398420140.0008639842014#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!777.00528130559.54%1,305.0000-1305-777-100.001941760.00Guam0
52
10/05/2016West Virginia#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!29#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1118#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.715872624#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!83,458.0011920323200641.18%202,661.00150518195715-3629167060-8.48758766223.40West Virginia#NUM!
53
17/05/2016Kentucky#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!55#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2827#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.357689459#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!212,549.0021062645461950.23%423,175.0082494229669-224950-130055-32.87759178015.90Kentucky#NUM!Closed CaucusClosed primary
54
06/05/201617/05/2016Oregon48.0033.00816159.2592592640.740740743625612635-1010#NUM!#NUM!1.5058010370.0072278449770.004969143421#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!220,120.0026233048156745.63%482,450.00208646312007-169560-11474-21.37846674951.80Oregon110
55
04/06/2016Virgin Islands84.2012.2096.4787.3443983412.655601666176100#NUM!#NUM!0.17279684030.0014549493950.0002108121451#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1,308.00190151287.32%1,498.001041627115-12043.66218066.10Virgin Islands463
56
05/06/2016Puerto Rico61.0038.6099.66061.2449799238.755020083723603624-11#NUM!#NUM!1.4811157740.0090348062210.005717106887#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!50593869912.40Puerto Rico744
57
07/06/2016North Dakota0.00100.00100180100018185135-5#NUM!#NUM!0.444334732200.004443347322#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.20North Dakota22
58
07/06/2016California#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!475#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!273166#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!11.72549988#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!6.20California#NUM!
59
07/06/2016Montana#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!21#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1110#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.5183905209#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!0.40Montana#NUM!
60
07/06/2016New Jersey#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!126#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!7547#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3.110343125#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!13.70New Jersey#NUM!
61
07/06/2016New Mexico0.00100.0010034010003434161516-19#NUM!#NUM!0.839298938500.008392989385#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!2.10New Mexico71
62
07/06/2016South Dakota0.00100.0010020010002020101010-10#NUM!#NUM!0.49370525800.00493705258#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!1.30South Dakota26
63
14/06/2016DC50.0050.0010020505010102000#NUM!#NUM!0.4937052580.002468526290.00246852629#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!3912839283939150.70DC1014
64
Super712Super#NUM!
65
4763#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!22061782#NUM!#NUM!502100Future checker:13,162,115.05102311602374767155.42%1150184527668673056897583550837#NUM!
66
Clinton50
67
Correct4051Sanders5023,393,274.9339170518#NUM!
68
Rod Crosby's excellent GOP spreadsheet off which this is based:
2025.5#NUM!
69
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MHRYdL8Lw3L6OXiHnKZHi1vo6vUblQhuKg7FPDFuuQ0/edit#gid=184807879
40512025.50.560.43735474860.29363525340.7063647466#NUM!
70
71
SUPERS50238#NUM!#NUM!#NUM!
72
Winning line with Supers for HRC
#NUM!#NUM!
73
Winning line with evenly split supers
27087896.5RegTarget18812345#NUM!
74
PollDays
75
The number of days of polls in the forecast#NUM!27027021132113Sanders#NUM!
76
If there are insufficient polls, the last 3 are used, irrespective of the dates6
77
467#NUM!
78
Currently, most polls are very old...1916
79
median agedaysClinton#NUM!
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
Version 1.00
89
Pulpstar
Based off Rod Crosby's GOP sheet
Inspired by Rod Crosby's Spreadsheet.
90
21/02/2016
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
This sheet is to play around in, with user generated data. Please do have a play! The "Auto" sheet contains actual polling data, automatically updated, and is intended to be the main point of interest. The "History" sheet should be of interest also, intending to track the forecast. If anyone can think of further enhancements, give me a shout on PB. If anyone fancies updating the superdelegates in the "Supers" sheet feel free...
98
99
100