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What should go in an EA Open Online Course?
One current working model of an 'Doing Good Better' MOOC (to run in parallel with the EA Virtual Programs) course involves a whirlwind tour of EA's Core Principles, without focusing as much on the 'answers' (e.g., 'arguments for longtermism').
The goal is to largely build resources applying my forum post on evidence-based teaching and motivation. I hope those resources work as part of a MOOC, but also work for city fellowships, university courses, virtual programs, and high-school outreach.
Feedback Request: What major skills or ideas are missing? What's redundant or distracting? Understanding the stories described as 2-6 words is likely hard, but are there other, better stories that you think explain these principles?
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OrderStory for hook in videosMisconceptionKey new idea or skillApplication of idea or skillNearby resourcesChatGPT Script prompt
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0It's hard to do good effectively because our two cognitive systems collide
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1Scared straight vs contraceptive pill/green revolutionEmotions/intutitions are a pretty good indicator of what's helping the world; good intentions are what matterThere's a difference between doing things that make us feel good and those that reduce suffering and death most effectivelyValues reflection: feeling good or doing good. How much do you care about each? What matters to you? Overview of how we'll explore what matters, help you choose between causes, then choose between interentions.
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2Birds and nuclear warFeelings are proportional to the size of problemsOur emotional judgements are incentive to scopeScope sensitivity and epidemiology 101: find the problems that kill the most people and notice how it tracks with your emotional responsePoor production of Ali Abdaal interview but reasonable content; some identifiable victims here; Malaria kills 2 kids a minute
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3Worms; or climate change FP reportMost ways of helping others are pretty similar (±2x)Some ways of helping to reduce suffering are far more effective than othersQuiz using https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/charity-comparisons and https://80000hours.org/articles/can-you-guess/
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4We can take some general approaches to thinking better that allow both systems to work together
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5How motivated reasoning ruined the life of an innocent man: DreyfusThough I'm learning, I see the world clearlyWe all dismiss arguments that don't fit our current beliefs, so use these tools...Scout mindset tests (double-standard test, outsider, conformity, selective skeptic, status quo bias)Galef's TEDx is good; summary of Decisive
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6Vaccine skepticism from Think AgainWhen people disagree, I should try to more clearly explain my point of viewIn a discussion my job is to explain their point of view, so I can properly understand the disagreement and get to the truthRapoport's Rules / Ideological turing test ~= double cruxing: try to state someone else's perspective in a way they would agree withAre you an ideological robot? Great video by koch funded libertarian think tank :/, reference in house of lords by conservative
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7Bay of Pigs vs. Cuban Missile CrisisPlan for the best, be certain you'll succeedThink about the worst; brainstorm ways you might be wrongRed-team / devil's advocacy / pre- / post-mortem: brainstorm ways you're wrong
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8We can use quality data about what's needed and what works to make clear decisions about what helps most
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9Studying medicine; maybe story of Emma Hurst, psychologist turned MPMy impact is determined by what I didWe need to add "...compared against what would have happened otherwise"Counterfactual estimation of impact / thinking on the margin: try to figure out what would have happened otherwiseGreat video of marginal analysis,
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10UBI in Canada vs KenyaThe biggest opportunities for me to have an impact are in my local communityMany people now have a much bigger opportunity to do good by doing good overseasImpartiality in space: present best arguments for/against parochialism
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11Quantifying education vs cancer drugsWe can't measure what it means to do goodDALYs, QALYs, Wellbys, and Moral Weights all work relatively well for quantifying the impacts of many interventionsQuantifying wellbeing: choose a method of measuring what matters, acknowledging that these simplifications are limited, but incredibly useful as long as those limits are well understood.GWWC's summary of both the importance of cost-effectiveness and different metrics
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12Playpumps vs. chlorine'Which intervention looks to solve the problem best?'Which intervention solves the problem best, per dollar?'Cost-effectiveness evaluation: account for both the benefits and costs of an intervention, including uncertainty about outcomes
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13Everything you eat is causing and curing cancer"New research shows..." is trustworthy; a single, good study (e.g., an RCT) is enough to make an informed decision.Single studies are relatively weak evidence, and they conflict. Systmeatic reviews and meta-analyses are much stronger. Work down from meta-reviews, to meta-analyses, to RCTs, to the restHierarchy of evidence: work down from the top rather than up from the bottomok summary by Cochrane; meandering HCT on systematic review; Meandering HCT on meta-analysisWrite a script about the importance of using good evidence, working down from clinical practice guidelines to systematic reviews to RCTs. Correct the misconception that news reporting of science is trustworthy ("New research shows..."). Use the story of nutrition, where 'everything you eat is causing AND curing cancer.' Relate the solution to finding methods of improving the world through your work and donations.
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14Revisit medicine vs health policy, and Emma Hurst vs. MP. Possibly too personal: Mike's friends Tim/Sarah working in Keyna vs working here and donating.I should be distributing bed nets or cash or doing effective strategies in a developing economyI can have a bigger impact by using leverage: improving governments, mobiling others, spreading ideas, helping others, buidling organisations, doing research, or donating moneyLeverage: the impact you gain from moving from direct interventions to policy/research
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15Some approaches to climate change are not neglected, others are; some approaches to helping animals are not neglected, others areI should focus on what's important then...Weight importance, tractability (inc. your fit), and neglected ness to maximise impact 'on the margin' Weighted factor models via INT: make decisions when multiple criteria count using heuristics. Mostly talk about prioritising interventions within a cause area, then have learners practice prioritising cause areas as an exercise
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16We can make clear decisions about the future by better managing uncertainty
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17Gambling and lotteries; systemic change and lobbying to remove lead paintCompare the costs with the possible reward(Generally) do what has the highest expected valueExpected value calculations: account for the value of success and the probability of it happeningExcellent practical summary of expected value
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18Iraq invasion"I'm 50:50" or "You can't put a number on it"Using even rough probability estimates are almost always possible and important to calculate expected valueQuantifying uncertainty: quantifying 'maybe'
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19Piano tuners; fermi paradoxSome problems are impossible to quantifyBreak hard problems into smaller ones don't ignore the parts that are harder to quantifyFermi estimation: break down an impossible question into smaller ones; squiggle exercise?7/10 for quick summary of Fermi estimation focused on piano tuners
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20Is this the most important century?; AI bio-anchorsThe future is predictable, or it's totally unpredictableWe can learn to better predict the future with CHAMPSForecasting: make calibrated probability judgements about the future80k's Alex Lawsen's great content but rough production of intro to forecasting; Tetlock's GJP training
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21Kahneman book development storyStart with my beliefs then update slowly in light of evidenceFind a robust 'outside view' and update using your informationFinding base-rates: start with an outside view then update using inside knowledge; perhaps use example of AI Impacts ML survey
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22BeerAdvocate?; war in Ukraine? Updates as AI Progresses?p(disease|positive test) = 'accuracy' of test; p(d|+) = p(+|d)p(d|+) = p(+|d) * p(+) / p(–), or the 'odds' version from 80kBayesian updating (in small increments): update your belief in light of new evidenceExcellent rational animations video that describes itself as a prereq. to the 3b1b video; Fabulous 3b1b video summarising how and why of Bayes (8/10, not prosocial); Good simple explanations with lots of examples but less focused on biases
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23Cleopatra's extra dessert; Schulman's x-risk EV calculationsI should do good nowThings I do now could have far-reaching, long-run influences that matterCase study in applying EV assuming impartiality in time: present best arguments for/against longtermism, x-risk reduction
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24You can use all these skills to have a massive impact with your career
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25Tom's shoesDoing good things leads to good outcomesMapping how good happens identifies blind spots and reduces riskCrucial considerations and theories of change: use cluster thinking and short, testable causal chains
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26Givewell's transparency and external critiquesI should argue my case in a compelling wayI should make my reasoning transparent so I can become more accurateReasoning transparency: making it clear what you know and how you know it
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27Cassidy Nelson's pivot from medicineI should do what I'm passionate aboutDo what gives your life meaning and fits your skillsWrite the retirement speech you'd like people to say about your career. Using that speech, identify one new goal you could set for yourself that would allow you to have a bigger impact. If you want ideas, have a look at these 80k resources.Ali Abdall's excellent review of so good they can't ignore you
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28Sam Harris's approach to donatingI should sweat the small stuff, penny pinch, feel guiltyCompartmentalise and make advanced commitments and only review every year or soGo to GWWC pledge or One for the world. Tell them I sent you 😘
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29Case study of approaches to pandemics, and how GCBRs seems high EV, neglected, tractablePreventing covid-level pandemics is the focusIf we aim to prevent GCBRs we might reduce the risk of covid-level pandemics *and* prevent the worst possible outcomes, with a modest increase in costFinal project: translate the GCBR worked example to nuclear risk, AI, farmed animal advocacy, or global health/wellbeing, writing up a case for an intervention to reduce the risk from one of those problems
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30Options to add later
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I should do what I feelI can accept my feeling and do what I valueExperiential acceptance and commitment
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I should buy into my thoughtsI can notice my thoughts and do what mattersDefusion and mindfulness
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