Main Elasticities model
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0
Elasticity or Differential?
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394959697
2
1E
EA Movement size (dedicated ivy league grads equivalents)
0.950.950.950.950.950.950.5
3
2E
mil$ Far Future (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
111
4
3E
mil$ Global Poverty (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.1550.03650.1936
5
4E
mil$ Animal Outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
110.008398
6
5E
mil$ Far Future outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.070.025
7
6E
mil$ GCR Research (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.08-0.03-0.03
8
7E
mil$ GCR Policy/Strategy (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.07
9
8E
mil$ Cause Prioritization (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.95
10
9E
mil$ Outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.1
11
10D
mil$ AMF (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.0000750.000000438885231519117.64706
12
11D
mil$ Deworming (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.0008364001338020000
13
12D
mill$ Givedirectly (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.00004429400026
14
13E
mil$ Animal Product alternatives (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
-0.00003333333333-0.001666666667-0.011111111110
15
14E
mil$ Goverment/Corporate Animal welfare reforms (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0.00536250.000057146226420.0002837579618
16
15D
mil$ Vegan outreach (EA excluding good Ventures 2017)
0-0.003286344516-0.01211911357-0.002908028021
17
16E
Concern about GCRs in academia (% of revelent fields who think a GCR top 6 global problem, because it is a GCR)
0.30.5
18
17E
Concern about GCRs in public/industry/government (% of MPs who think a 'GCR' top 6 global problem)
0.30-0.05-0.1
19
18E
Value of working on current known best cause (X)
1
20
19E
GDP per capita PPP $ (<$4000 PPP GDP per Capita in 2017)
0.080.120.040.0600.813.50.5-0.01578000000
21
20E
Eggs consumption kg per capita 2017
0.1-0.1575
22
21E
Poultry consumption kg per capita 2017
0.90.315
23
22E
Beef consumption Kg per capita 2017
1
24
23E
Pork consumption kg per capita 2017
1
25
24ETheoretical X-Risk (2017-2050)0.6
26
25E
Theoretical GCR (Expected number 2017-2050)
0.8
27
26E
Intentional GCRs (e.g. terrorism) (Expected number 2017-2050)
00.040.2
28
27E
EA aligned people in positions of power in G8 govermnts (%)
0.010.10.0330.10
29
28E
$ Developed Government spending foreign aid
003161592.506
30
29E
Better governance in developing countries (average of HDI*10 and democracy index)
0.01000.01-0.01
31
30D
Climate Change (CO2e GT emitted 2017-2050)
0.0058441558440.003896103896-0.0003333333333-0.0001645819618-1111500
32
31EChicken population (2050)0.0116
33
32E
Chicken welfare in total suffering (2050)
000.004590909091
34
33ECattle population (2050)0.087
35
34ECattle welfare 0-10 (2050)00
36
35EPig population (2050)0.013
37
36EPig welfare 0-10 (2050)00
38
37E
Practical X-Risk (2017-2050) in %
000-0.07-159495000
39
38E
Practical GCR (Expected number 2017-2050)
000-0.007-0.035-79747500
40
39E
Value of all work done on Cause X
41
40D
Expected Reported wellbeing average on Cantril scale (2050)
42
41E
Expected Population levels (2050)
0.40.70.20.3
43
42D
Expected Cumulative change in QALYs (2050)
44
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