GiveWell's room for more funding analysis for AMF [2017]
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Scope of analysisNotes
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Unit of analysis (full organization or program of a larger organization)AMF
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Analysis 'as of' dateOctober 28, 2017
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End date of the analysis: GiveWell's next allocation decisionNovember 30, 2018
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Date by which funds need to be recevied (or committed) for them to impact plans prior to GiveWell's next funding allocationOctober 28, 2018
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Funds on handAmountNotes
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Funds in the bank for AMF as of October 28, 2017$76,496,504
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Of funds in the bank for AMF, amount committed to future activities$17,847,581
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Of funds in the bank for AMF, funds held in reserve$0Funds in reserve are funds that are not expected to be spent unless there is a major revenue shortfall
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Uncommitted, unreserved funds in the bank$58,648,923Calculation
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Projected revenueValue from same period in previous yearAre there any reasons why last year's revenue is not a reasonable projection for next year (ignoring variation in GiveWell-influenced funding)?Projection (before GiveWell's 2017 recommendation)Notes
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Total annual revenue for AMF$47,445,886Not that we are aware of-This is for AMF's 2017 fiscal year (July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017)
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Total GiveWell-influenced funding that reached the organization in AMF FY 2017$33,446,350--From GiveWell's internal donation records. This includes the amount that GiveWell granted to AMF in this period, dontions made to AMF during this period by donors who cited GiveWell as the reason for giving, and $4.5 million in "accruals." The "accruals" are funds that GiveWell held as of June 30, 2017 for supporting AMF. It is our understanding that AMF included this amount in its FY 2017 financial summary.
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Projected revenue from donors who are not influenced by GiveWell's research, AMF FY 2017$13,999,536-$2,000,000Calculation. We note that we would guess that the "non-GiveWell revenue in FY 2017" is an overestimate and that we have failed to designate some donations that were due to GiveWell's recommendation as such. AMF raised $4 million in FY 2014 (https://www.againstmalaria.com/FinancialInformation.aspx) – for part of this FY, GiveWell removed AMF from our top charity list due to lack of room for more funding (https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities/November-2013). AMF has not increased its fundraising capacity since that time.
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Funding held by GiveWell as of the end of AMF FY 2017--$0See discussion of accruals in cell E23
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Annual projected revenue from donors who give based on GiveWell's top charity list, but do not follow our recommendation for marginal funding--$2,000,000GiveWell maintains both a list of all top charities that meet our criteria and a recommendation for which charity or charities to give to to maximize the impact of additional donations, given cost-effectiveness of remaining funding gaps.

This is difficult to estimate because AMF has been a part of recommendation for additional donations in recent years.
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Bottom line
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'Baseline' funding pot for AMF to allocate by October 28, 2018$62,648,923
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Revenue projection for year to October 28, 2019$2,000,000
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Revenue projection for year to October 28, 2020$2,000,000
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Of which, projected funding$8,000,000
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