COVID Model ~work in progress~
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRS
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INDIAREST OF THE WORLD (Exl. CHINA)
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Cases Scenarios
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Growth rate Per day
15 Apr 20
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Life to Date Growth Avg / per day
1.31132,831
be wary of anamoly in row E6
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Last 20 Days Growth Avg/ per day
1.1820,244
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Last 10 Days Growth Avg / per day
1.2025,677
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DISCLAIMER ->
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This is a quick & dirty analysis ie does not factor granular intel + does not factor India Lockdown Tailwinds on 24/25 March + internal migration patterns + testing capability + stage mannering by the gov + weather implications/inherent country immunity
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DatesCasesDeathsGrowth per day
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1 Mar 2030.00
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2 Mar 2050.001.67
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3 Mar 2060.001.20
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4 Mar 20280.004.67
The above chart was taken out on Mar 8, 2020. It predicts 1M cases (excl china) by 5 April 2020
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5 Mar 20300.001.07
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6 Mar 20310.001.03
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7 Mar 20340.001.10
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8 Mar 20390.001.15
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9 Mar 20480.001.23
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10 Mar 20630.001.31
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11 Mar 20700.001.11
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12 Mar 20821.001.17
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13 Mar 20911.001.11
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14 Mar 201072.001.18
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15 Mar 201133.001.06
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16 Mar 201273.001.12
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17 Mar 201463.001.15
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18 Mar 201713.001.17WORTHY LINKS
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19 Mar 201994.001.16
https://cddep.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid19.indiasim.March23-2-4.pdf
CDDEP report
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20 Mar 202584.001.30
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&t=249s
Exponential Growth Exp.
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21 Mar 203344.001.29
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrrsXCxs2xg
Ramanan Interview 21Mar
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22 Mar 204037.001.21
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-29/pessimistic-indian-doctors-brace-for-tsunami-of-virus-cases
35,000 Tests conducted as of 29 Mar
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23 Mar 205059.001.25
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24 Mar 2057110.001.13TRILLION $ QUESTION: WHEN IS THE INFLECTION POINT?
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25 Mar 2065711.001.15
In nature/law of all things, there is nothing truly exponential in perpuity
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26 Mar 2073516.001.12
Inflection point is a point in a curve when an exponential curve becomes a logistics curve
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27 Mar 2088619.001.21
Below is a demostartion of how the logistics curve looks like & what re some early indicators of the same
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28 Mar 201,02924.001.16
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29 Mar 201,230
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30 Mar 201,471
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31 Mar 201,759
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1 Apr 202,103
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2 Apr 202,515
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3 Apr 203,007
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4 Apr 203,595
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5 Apr 204,299
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6 Apr 205,140
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7 Apr 206,146
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8 Apr 207,349
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9 Apr 208,787
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10 Apr 2010,506
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11 Apr 2012,562
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12 Apr 2015,021
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13 Apr 2017,960
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14 Apr 2021,475
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15 Apr 2025,677
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16 Apr 2030,702
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17 Apr 2036,710
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18 Apr 2043,894
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19 Apr 2052,484
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20 Apr 2062,754
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21 Apr 2075,035
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22 Apr 2089,718
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23 Apr 20107,275
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24 Apr 20128,268
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25 Apr 20153,368
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26 Apr 20183,381
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27 Apr 20219,267
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28 Apr 20262,175
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29 Apr 20313,480
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30 Apr 20374,825
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Blue means formula
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Source: covid19india.org
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Source
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Nᵈ
Number of Cases in a Given Day
covid19india.org
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E
Average Number of People someone infected is exposed to in a day
Get this from Dr. Fauci
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P
Probability of each exposure becoming an infection
Get this from Dr. Fauci
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▵N
Change over a day
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Nᵈ+¹Nᵈ+(E*P*Nᵈ)
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(1 + (E*P)* Nᵈ
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https://cddep.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/covid19.indiasim.March23-2-4.pdf
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