2016 Presidential State Election Model
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO
1
2016 ELECTION MODEL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
3
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html
4
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/
Party-ID
Vote shares >>>>
9 PollsAdjustPoll ID
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll ID
IBD/Tipp
5
GallupPctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClinton1PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther2PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemTrump%RepClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% DemTrump%RepTrump%DemClinton% Rep
6
INPUT IN GREY CELLS BELOW
Ind40.0%33.8%43.6%8.9%3.8%Ind17%21%29%15%8%27.0%Ind37%30%47%16%3%4.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.00%87.33%
7
Party-IDGallup9 pollsEDayNEPDem32.0%88.1%6.9%1.3%1.7%Dem45%81%7%4%3%5.0%Dem34%87%7%0%3%3.0%Ipsos81%86%21%29%21%29%81%86%7%6%
8
Poll Shares
11234TurnoutRep28.0%5.6%87.8%3.9%0.3%Rep32%6%86%5%1%2.0%Rep29%6%85%5%0%4.0%IBD87%85%30%47%30%47%87%88%7%6%
9
Poll ID10Ind40%28.9%41.0%31%100%
PreUVA
94.7%43.3%44.2%5.1%2.1%Calc86.5%41.9%35.6%6.0%3.0%13.5%Calc96.3%42.4%44.4%7.4%2.1%3.7%Rasmussen85%88%30%42%30%52%89%87%12%5%
10
NEP11Dem32%38.7%31.0%36%100%Votes128,96355,79257,0076,5402,757Poll90.0%42.0%39.0%6.0%3.0%10.0%Poll98.0%43.0%45%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%81%37%42%37%42%90%90%4%4%
11
9 Polls10Rep28%29.3%28.0%33%100%EVote538232306
GallupID
85.9%36.0%36.8%8.7%4.4%14.1%
GallupID
98.0%41.9%45.3%8.5%2.2%2.0%Fox News89%87%39%44%39%44%86%91%6%6%
12
StateWtdUVA100.0%44.5%48.2%5.1%2.1%CNN93%89%43%44%43%44%86%85%6%6%
13
UVA Trump
75%GallupIndDemRepVotes136,21660,64165,7206,9082,9123
Rasmussen
4
Quinnipiac
ABC90%90%40%49%40%49%90%81%7%7%
14
TotalMoE2.5%Nov1-636%31%27%Evote538187351Ind32%30%42%4%2%22.0%Ind26%37%42%8%2%11.0%Gravis92%93%32%43%32%43%93%89%7%5%
15
PollMoE3.0%
Nov9-13
40%30%27%
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%Dem40%85%12%1%1%1.0%Dem40%90%4%3%1%2.0%LA Times86%91%32%52%32%52%92%93%6%5%
16
EDay38%30.5%27%Votes136,21665,71962,8904,4831,454Rep19%5%88%3%0%4.0%Rep34%4%81%11%1%3.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.22%87.78%6.89%5.56%
17
NEP31%36%33%EVote538232306Calc82.8%44.6%35.0%2.3%1.0%17.2%Calc95.3%47.0%40.1%7.0%1.3%4.7%
18
9Polls28.9%38.7%29.3%
(View Pre UVA Sensitivity analysis in cell X45)
Poll94.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll95.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
19
Pre-election
Party-ID
Poll
Electoral Vote
75%
Post UVA Reported
Pre UVAPost UVA
GallupID
93.0%40.6%45.3%4.8%2.3%7.0%
GallupID
94.1%44.7%40.8%7.2%1.4%5.9%
20
PollsIndDemRepClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob%Ind%Dem%Rep
21
1Ipsos17%45%32%42.0%39.0%29824010.0%44.5%46.5%11.3%76.4%5
Fox News
6CNNJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
22
2IBD37%34%29%43.0%45.0%2023362.0%43.5%46.5%77.1%86.2%Ind19%39%44%11%4%2.0%Ind43%43%44%6%4%3.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
23
3
Rasmussen
32%40%19%45.0%43.0%3132256.0%46.5%47.5%22.9%63.6%Dem43%89%6%2%2%1.0%Dem31%93%6%0%1%0.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
24
4
Quinnipiac
26%40%34%47.0%40.0%3781605.0%48.3%43.8%0.4%5.5%Rep29%6%87%5%1%1.0%Rep26%6%89%2%0%3.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
25
5Fox News19%43%29%48.0%44.0%3172211.0%48.3%44.8%7.8%10.9%Calc89.9%47.4%36.2%4.4%1.9%10.1%Calc97.9%48.9%43.9%3.1%2.0%2.1%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
26
6CNN43%31%26%49.0%44.0%3621762.0%49.5%45.5%4.0%8.4%Poll99.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll98.0%49.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
27
7ABC29%37%30%47.0%44.0%3172213.0%47.8%46.3%14.1%30.1%
GallupID
98.6%45.8%43.9%6.4%2.5%1.4%
GallupID
98.0%48.6%44.4%3.0%1.9%2.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4944
28
8Gravis27%40%33%47.0%45.0%2942444.0%48.0%48.0%23.9%50.0%77%4%0%2%2%0%4744
29
9LA Times30%38%32%44.0%47.0%2023360.0%44.0%47.0%85.9%85.9%7ABC8Gravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4745
30
Average28.9%38.7%29.3%45.8%43.4%298.1239.95.4%46.7%46.2%15.3%41.6%Ind29%40%49%7%4%0.0%Ind27%32%43%3%2%20.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%4447
31
ADJUSTED
Indep %-Pre-elec polls
Adj Poll (Gallup)
ElecVote pre UVA
75%
Post UVA Gallup
Pre-UVAPost UVADem37%90%7%0%2%1.0%Dem40%92%7%0%1%0.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.7843.44
32
GALLUPClintonTrumpDiffClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win ProbRep30%7%90%2%0%1.0%Rep33%5%93%2%0%0.0%
33
1Ipsos21%29%8%36.0%36.8%23929914.1%39.5%47.4%64.0%99.8%Calc95.3%47.0%43.8%2.6%1.9%4.7%Calc94.6%47.1%45.1%1.5%0.9%5.4%
34
2IBD30%47%17%41.9%45.3%2023362.0%42.4%46.9%89.9%94.7%Poll97.0%47.0%44.0%4.0%2.0%3.0%Poll96%47.0%45.0%3.0%1.0%4.0%
35
3
Rasmussen
30%42%12%40.6%45.3%1673717.0%42.4%50.6%96.2%99.8%
GallupID
99.4%46.8%47.0%3.4%2.2%0.6%
GallupID
92%43.6%45.5%1.8%1.1%8.0%
36
4
Quinnipiac
37%42%5%44.7%40.8%3352035.9%46.2%45.2%6.5%35.8%
37
5Fox News39%44%5%45.8%43.9%2982401.4%46.1%44.9%24.7%33.6%9
LA Times
http://cesrusc.org/election/
10Gallup9 PollsPrimaryClintonTrumpJohnsonStein
38
6CNN43%44%1%48.6%44.4%3352032.0%49.2%46.0%7.0%13.7%Ind30%32%52%10%5%1.0%Ind40.0%33.8%43.6%8.9%3.8%10.0%Sanders30%50.0%20%10%20.0%
39
7ABC40%49%9%46.8%47.0%2492890.6%46.9%47.5%53.9%58.0%Dem38%86%6%2%1%5.0%Dem32.0%88.1%6.9%1.3%1.7%2.0%Clinton30%95.0%3.0%0.0%2.0%
40
8Gravis32%43%11%43.6%45.5%2163228.0%45.6%51.5%75.0%97.5%Rep30%5%91%4%0%0.0%Rep28.0%5.6%87.8%3.9%0.3%2.4%Trump40%0.0%95.0%5.0%0.0%
41
9LA Times32%52%20%41.7%48.2%854532.0%42.2%49.7%99.1%99.6%Calc95.8%43.8%45.2%5.0%1.9%4.2%Calc94.7%43.26%44.20%5.07%2.14%5.3%Total100%43.50%44.90%5.00%6.60%
42
Average33.8%43.6%9.8%43.3%44.1%236.2301.84.8%44.5%47.7%64.5%91.4%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%
9PollAvg
94.6%43.31%44.13%5.07%2.14%5.4%
43
Before UVA
PostUVA44.5%48.2%-94.2%
GallupID
98.0%41.7%48.2%5.8%2.3%2.0%UVA100.0%44.52%48.25%5.07%2.14%0.0%
44
Snapshot EV
232306.0StateWtd187351
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%
45
Expected EV
232.5305.5Exp. EV177.2360.8
46
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
47
20122016
VOTE SHARES BEFORE UVA
9 Polls
48
Average38.3%36.3%25.3%30.4%29.0%40.7%57.1%42.04%45.00%5.15%2.14%75%IndDemRep
49
Wtd Avg39.9%35.3%24.8%31.8%27.9%40.3%55.6%43.15%44.14%5.09%2.14%
Vote(000)
Electoral Vote
UVA Trump
Party ID40.0%32.0%28.0%
50
ElecVoteVoteDemRepIndDemRepIndInd2pty%ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
PostUVA
Turnout100%100%100%
51
538136,21640.5%35.2%24.2%32.0%28.0%40.0%55.6%43.15%44.14%5.09%2.14%58,77760,1306,9342,92223230635194.42%Trump% Rep
52
AK331912.8%26.7%60.5%10.1%21.2%68.7%87.2%33.3%49.2%7.1%2.8%1061572393392.42%Trump83.8%85.8%87.8%89.8%91.8%
53
AL92,12335.0%49.0%16.0%27.6%39.0%33.4%54.7%37.8%50.7%4.9%1.9%8021,076103399994.81%% IndTrump
54
AR61,13137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.3%4.9%2.0%45054656226694.66%44.6%43.5%44.0%44.6%45.2%45.7%
55
AZ112,57328.9%34.4%36.7%22.8%27.3%49.8%68.6%38.5%47.3%5.8%2.4%9891,21714961111193.72%43.6%43.1%43.6%44.20%44.8%45.3%
56
CA5514,18243.3%28.1%28.6%34.2%22.3%43.5%56.0%46.0%40.9%5.2%2.3%6,5295,8017363245594.20%42.6%42.7%43.2%43.8%44.4%44.9%
57
CO92,78030.9%32.9%36.2%24.4%26.2%49.5%67.0%39.6%46.2%5.7%2.4%1,1021,284160669993.75%Clinton
58
CT71,64536.4%20.8%42.8%28.7%16.5%54.7%65.6%44.7%40.3%5.9%2.6%7366639743793.44%44.6%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%42.9%
59
DC331380.0%10.0%10.0%63.1%8.0%28.9%31.4%65.8%23.9%3.7%2.2%20675127395.34%43.6%43.3%43.3%43.26%43.3%43.3%
60
DE344247.5%28.0%24.5%37.5%22.3%40.2%51.8%47.9%39.7%4.9%2.2%2111752210394.43%42.6%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%43.7%
61
FL299,42038.8%35.0%26.2%30.6%27.8%41.5%57.6%42.6%44.6%5.2%2.2%4,0094,204488205292994.30%
Vote Share Margin
62
GA164,11539.0%43.0%18.0%30.8%34.2%35.0%53.2%40.9%47.4%4.9%2.0%1,6811,95020080161694.73%44.6%0.6%1.2%1.7%2.3%2.9%
63
HI443849.0%35.0%16.0%38.7%27.8%33.5%46.4%46.9%41.7%4.6%2.0%205182209494.88%43.6%-0.2%0.4%0.94%1.5%2.1%
64
IA61,56631.1%32.0%36.9%24.5%25.4%50.0%67.1%39.9%45.8%5.8%2.4%62571790376693.72%42.6%-1.0%-0.4%0.1%0.7%1.3%
65
ID469027.0%52.0%21.0%21.3%41.3%37.3%63.7%33.7%54.0%5.2%1.9%23337336134494.51%
Vote Margin (000)
66
IL205,53647.0%35.0%18.0%37.1%27.8%35.1%48.6%46.1%42.3%4.7%2.0%2,5512,3402601132094.76%44.6%8021,5252,2472,9693,691
67
IN112,74137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%39.8%48.3%4.9%2.0%1,0901,32413554111194.66%43.6%-2294931,2151,9372,660
68
KS61,18424.7%44.1%31.2%19.5%35.1%45.4%70.0%34.5%51.9%5.7%2.2%40861567266693.98%42.6%-1,261-5391839061,628
69
KY81,92430.0%30.0%40.0%23.7%23.9%52.5%68.9%39.9%45.4%5.9%2.5%768874114478895.32%
70
LA82,02927.1%27.7%45.2%21.4%22.0%56.6%72.6%39.2%45.5%6.2%2.6%795922125528893.27%
71
MA113,32535.3%10.9%53.8%27.9%8.7%63.5%69.5%46.5%37.2%6.4%2.9%1,5451,236211961192.87%
72
MD102,78154.9%25.7%19.4%43.3%20.4%36.2%45.5%51.6%36.7%4.6%2.2%1,4341,021128601094.73%
73
ME474831.9%27.1%41.0%25.2%21.5%53.3%67.9%41.4%43.9%5.9%2.5%30932844194493.51%136,21658,77760,130
74
MI164,79944.0%37.0%19.0%34.7%29.4%35.9%50.8%44.3%43.8%4.8%2.0%2,1282,10423097161694.70%12,3306,5295,801CA
75
MN102,94544.0%39.0%17.0%34.7%31.0%34.3%49.7%43.9%44.5%4.7%2.0%1,2931,31113958101094.80%6,5053,6982,808NY
76
MO102,80939.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.6%47.7%4.8%1.9%1,1411,34113554101094.78%117,38048,55051,521NET
77
MS61,20938.0%46.0%16.0%30.0%36.6%33.4%52.7%39.8%48.7%4.8%1.9%48158958236694.82%41.36%43.89%
78
MT349733.0%51.0%16.0%26.0%40.5%33.4%56.2%36.5%51.9%4.9%1.8%1812582493394.80%
79
NC154,74241.7%30.4%27.9%32.9%24.2%42.9%56.6%44.8%42.2%5.2%2.3%2,1262,000246107151594.23%
80
ND334436.0%47.0%17.0%28.4%37.4%34.2%54.6%38.7%49.7%4.9%1.9%1331711773394.76%
81
NE584430.9%48.3%20.8%24.4%38.4%37.2%60.4%36.2%51.6%5.1%1.9%306436431614494.54%
82
NH474227.2%30.1%42.7%21.5%23.9%54.6%71.8%38.7%46.3%6.1%2.5%28734345194493.40%
83
NJ143,90732.7%19.7%47.6%25.8%15.7%58.5%69.4%43.4%41.0%6.2%2.7%1,6951,602240105141493.18%
84
NM579846.6%31.2%22.2%36.8%24.8%38.4%51.1%46.8%41.0%4.9%2.1%3733283917594.55%
85
NV61,12539.7%34.6%25.7%31.3%27.5%41.2%56.8%43.0%44.2%5.1%2.2%48449858246694.33%
86
NY297,45549.4%23.9%26.7%39.0%19.0%42.0%51.9%49.6%37.7%5.0%2.3%3,6982,8083721712994.33%
87
OH185,49641.0%42.0%17.0%32.4%33.4%34.2%51.4%41.9%46.5%4.8%1.9%2,3052,554262107181894.79%
88
OK71,45343.7%43.6%12.7%34.5%34.7%30.8%47.2%42.7%46.2%4.5%1.9%62167266277795.02%
89
OR72,00137.8%29.9%32.3%36.0%28.0%36.0%50.0%45.4%42.7%4.8%2.1%9098559541794.62%
90
PA206,11549.5%36.7%13.8%39.1%29.2%31.8%44.8%46.8%42.1%4.5%1.9%2,8602,5772741192094.99%
91
RI441441.5%10.9%47.6%32.8%8.7%58.6%64.1%49.1%35.4%6.0%2.8%2031462512493.22%
92
SC92,10339.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%40.6%47.7%4.8%1.9%8541,004101409994.78%
93
SD337033.8%46.2%20.0%26.7%36.7%36.6%57.8%37.9%50.0%5.0%1.9%1401851973394.60%
94
TN112,50835.0%47.0%18.0%27.6%37.4%35.0%55.9%38.2%50.0%4.9%1.9%9591,25312448111194.71%
95
TX388,96937.0%41.0%22.0%29.2%32.6%38.2%56.7%40.4%47.3%5.1%2.0%3,6284,239453183383894.51%
96
UT61,13126.0%59.0%15.0%20.5%46.9%32.6%61.3%28.0%45.5%5.0%1.7%31651556206694.82%
97
VA133,98340.0%42.0%18.0%31.6%33.4%35.0%52.6%41.5%46.7%4.8%2.0%1,6531,86219378131394.73%
98
VT332047.0%31.0%22.0%37.1%24.6%38.3%50.8%47.0%40.9%4.9%2.1%151131167394.56%
99
WA123,18445.0%45.0%10.0%35.5%35.8%28.7%44.7%43.0%46.4%4.4%1.8%1,3681,47614157121295.16%
100
WI102,97643.0%41.0%16.0%33.9%32.6%33.5%49.6%43.0%45.5%4.7%1.9%1,2801,35514058101094.85%
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TVMForecast
Unadj-Rep-True
IllegalUnctdFlip
TVMStateData
Battleground
ModelSens
Pre-election Trend
NEPvsTVM
Turnout
TVMSum
TVMNational
AK
AL
AR
AZ
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
IA
ID
IL
IN
KS
KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VA
VT
WA
WI
WV
WY
2016Vote
Gender
Race
GallupPartyID
WhenDecided
CallAmerica
2016 CENSUS 4A
CAVotes
CAHumboldt
CA Exit