OLD2016 Presidential State Election Model
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAO
1
2016 ELECTION MODEL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
2
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
3
http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR858.html
4
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/
Party-ID
Vote shares >>>>
NEPAdjustPoll ID
Ipsos/Reuters
Poll ID
IBD/Tipp
5
GallupPctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinTrump1PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOther2PctClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinOtherClinton% DemTrump%RepClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% IndTrump% IndClinton% DemTrump%RepTrump%DemClinton% Rep
6
INPUT IN GREY CELLS BELOW
Ind40.0%39.0%49.0%6.0%6.0%3%Ind17%21%29%15%8%27.0%Ind37%30%47%16%3%4.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.00%87.33%
7
Party-IDGallup9 pollsEDayNEPDem32.0%87.0%10.0%0.0%3.0%2%Dem45%81%7%4%3%5.0%Dem34%87%7%0%3%3.0%Ipsos81%86%21%29%21%29%81%86%7%6%
8
Poll Shares
11234TurnoutRep28.0%7.0%89.0%4.0%0.0%1%Rep32%6%86%5%1%2.0%Rep29%6%85%5%0%4.0%IBD87%85%30%47%30%47%87%88%7%6%
9
Poll ID11Ind40%28.9%41.0%31%100%
PreUVA
100.0%45.4%47.7%3.5%3.4%Calc86.5%41.9%35.6%6.0%3.0%13.5%Calc96.3%42.4%44.4%7.4%2.1%3.7%Rasmussen85%88%30%42%30%52%89%87%12%5%
10
NEP11Dem32%38.7%31.0%36%100%Votes136,21661,84265,0024,7954,577Poll90.0%42.0%39.0%6.0%3.0%10.0%Poll98.0%43.0%45%8.0%2.0%2.0%Quinnipiac90%81%37%42%37%42%90%90%4%4%
11
9 Polls10Rep28%29.3%28.0%33%100%EVote538216322
GallupID
85.9%36.0%36.8%8.7%4.4%14.1%
GallupID
98.0%41.9%45.3%8.5%2.2%2.0%Fox News89%87%39%44%39%44%86%91%6%6%
12
StateWtdUVA100.0%45.3%47.8%3.5%3.4%CNN93%89%43%44%43%44%86%85%6%6%
13
UVA Trump
75%GallupIndDemRepVotes136,21661,74465,0674,7954,5773
Rasmussen
4
Quinnipiac
ABC90%90%40%49%40%49%90%81%7%7%
14
TotalMoE2.5%Nov1-636%31%27%Evote538216322Ind32%30%42%4%2%22.0%Ind26%37%42%8%2%11.0%Gravis92%93%32%43%32%43%93%89%7%5%
15
PollMoE3.0%
Nov9-13
40%30%27%
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%Dem40%85%12%1%1%1.0%Dem40%90%4%3%1%2.0%LA Times86%91%32%52%32%52%92%93%6%5%
16
EDay38%30.5%27%Votes136,21665,71962,8904,4831,454Rep19%5%88%3%0%4.0%Rep34%4%81%11%1%3.0%88.11%87.78%33.78%43.56%33.78%44.67%88.22%87.78%6.89%5.56%
17
NEP31%36%33%EVote538232306Calc82.8%44.6%35.0%2.3%1.0%17.2%Calc95.3%47.0%40.1%7.0%1.3%4.7%
18
9Polls28.9%38.7%29.3%
(View Pre UVA Sensitivity analysis in cell X45)
Poll94.0%45.0%43.0%4.0%2.0%6.0%Poll95.0%47.0%40.0%7.0%1.0%5.0%
19
Pre-election
Party-ID
Poll
Electoral Vote
75%
Post UVA Reported
Pre UVAPost UVA
GallupID
93.0%40.6%45.3%4.8%2.3%7.0%
GallupID
94.1%44.7%40.8%7.2%1.4%5.9%
20
PollsIndDemRepClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win Prob%Ind%Dem%Rep
21
1Ipsos17%45%32%42.0%39.0%29824010.0%44.5%46.5%11.3%76.4%5
Fox News
6CNNJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
22
2IBD37%34%29%43.0%45.0%2023362.0%43.5%46.5%77.1%86.2%Ind19%39%44%11%4%2.0%Ind43%43%44%6%4%3.0%115%8%4%3%1%1%4239
23
3
Rasmussen
32%40%19%45.0%43.0%3132256.0%46.5%47.5%22.9%63.6%Dem43%89%6%2%2%1.0%Dem31%93%6%0%1%0.0%216%3%0%3%5%0%4345
24
4
Quinnipiac
26%40%34%47.0%40.0%3781605.0%48.3%43.8%0.4%5.5%Rep29%6%87%5%1%1.0%Rep26%6%89%2%0%3.0%34%2%1%1%3%0%4543
25
5Fox News19%43%29%48.0%44.0%3172211.0%48.3%44.8%7.8%10.9%Calc89.9%47.4%36.2%4.4%1.9%10.1%Calc97.9%48.9%43.9%3.1%2.0%2.1%48%2%3%1%11%1%4740
26
6CNN43%31%26%49.0%44.0%3621762.0%49.5%45.5%4.0%8.4%Poll99.0%48.0%44.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%Poll98.0%49.0%44.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%511%4%2%2%5%1%4844
27
7ABC29%37%30%47.0%44.0%3172213.0%47.8%46.3%14.1%30.1%
GallupID
98.6%45.8%43.9%6.4%2.5%1.4%
GallupID
98.0%48.6%44.4%3.0%1.9%2.0%66%4%0%1%2%0%4944
28
8Gravis27%40%33%47.0%45.0%2942444.0%48.0%48.0%23.9%50.0%77%4%0%2%2%0%4744
29
9LA Times30%38%32%44.0%47.0%2023360.0%44.0%47.0%85.9%85.9%7ABC8Gravis83%2%0%1%2%0%4745
30
Average28.9%38.7%29.3%45.8%43.4%298.1239.95.7%46.7%46.2%15.3%41.6%Ind29%40%49%7%4%0.0%Ind27%32%43%3%2%20.0%910%5%2%1%4%0%4447
31
ADJUSTED
Indep %-Pre-elec polls
Adj Poll (Gallup)
ElecVote pre UVA
75%
Post UVA Gallup
Pre-UVAPost UVADem37%90%7%0%2%1.0%Dem40%92%7%0%1%0.0%8.89%3.78%1.33%1.67%3.89%0.33%45.7843.44
32
GALLUPClintonTrumpDiffClintonTrumpClintonTrumpUndecidedClintonTrump
Win Prob
Win ProbRep30%7%90%2%0%1.0%Rep33%5%93%2%0%0.0%
33
1Ipsos21%29%8%36.0%36.8%23929914.1%39.5%47.4%64.0%99.8%Calc95.3%47.0%43.8%2.6%1.9%4.7%Calc94.6%47.1%45.1%1.5%0.9%5.4%
34
2IBD30%47%17%41.9%45.3%2023362.0%42.4%46.9%89.9%94.7%Poll97.0%47.0%44.0%4.0%2.0%3.0%Poll96%47.0%45.0%3.0%1.0%4.0%
35
3
Rasmussen
30%42%12%40.6%45.3%1673717.0%42.4%50.6%96.2%99.8%
GallupID
99.4%46.8%47.0%3.4%2.2%0.6%
GallupID
92%43.6%45.5%1.8%1.1%8.0%
36
4
Quinnipiac
37%42%5%44.7%40.8%3352035.9%46.2%45.2%6.5%35.8%
37
5Fox News39%44%5%45.8%43.9%2982401.4%46.1%44.9%24.7%33.6%9
LA Times
http://cesrusc.org/election/
10GallupNEPPrimaryClintonTrumpJohnsonStein
38
6CNN43%44%1%48.6%44.4%3352032.0%49.2%46.0%7.0%13.7%Ind30%32%52%10%5%1.0%Ind40.0%42.0%46.0%6.0%6.0%0.0%Sanders30%50.0%20%10%20.0%
39
7ABC40%49%9%46.8%47.0%2492890.6%46.9%47.5%53.9%58.0%Dem38%86%6%2%1%5.0%Dem32.0%89.0%8.0%0.0%3.0%0.0%Clinton30%95.0%3.0%0.0%2.0%
40
8Gravis32%43%11%43.6%45.5%2163228.0%45.6%51.5%75.0%97.5%Rep30%5%91%4%0%0.0%Rep28.0%8.0%88.0%4.0%0.0%0.0%Trump40%0.0%95.0%5.0%0.0%
41
9LA Times32%52%20%41.7%48.2%854532.0%42.2%49.7%99.1%99.6%Calc95.8%43.8%45.2%5.0%1.9%4.2%Calc100.0%47.52%45.60%3.52%3.36%0.0%Total100%43.50%44.90%5.00%6.60%
42
Average33.8%43.6%9.8%43.3%44.1%236.2301.84.8%44.5%47.7%64.5%91.4%Poll100.0%44.0%47.0%7.0%2.0%0.0%
9PollAvg
94.3%43.31%44.13%3.52%3.36%5.7%
43
Before UVA
PostUVA45.3%47.8%-84.8%
GallupID
98.0%41.7%48.2%5.8%2.3%2.0%UVA100.0%45.33%47.77%3.52%3.36%0.0%
44
Snapshot EV
216322.0StateWtd216322
Recorded
98.77%48.25%46.17%3.29%1.07%
45
Expected EV
205.5332.5Exp. EV203.7334.3
46
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
47
20122016
VOTE SHARES BEFORE UVA
NEP
48
Average38.3%36.3%25.3%30.4%29.0%40.7%57.1%44.20%48.46%3.60%3.35%75%IndDemRep
49
Wtd Avg39.9%35.3%24.8%31.8%27.9%40.3%55.6%45.29%47.64%3.53%3.37%
Vote(000)
Electoral Vote
UVA Trump
Party ID40.0%32.0%28.0%
50
ElecVoteVoteDemRepIndDemRepIndInd2pty%ClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrumpJohnsonSteinClintonTrump
PostUVA
Turnout100%100%100%
51
538136,21640.5%35.2%24.2%32.0%28.0%40.0%55.6%45.29%47.64%3.53%3.37%61,68664,8964,8134,59221632232294.42%Trump% Rep
52
AK331912.8%26.7%60.5%10.1%21.2%68.7%87.2%37.1%53.6%5.0%4.4%11817116143392.42%Trump85.0%87.0%89.0%91.0%93.0%
53
AL92,12335.0%49.0%16.0%27.6%39.0%33.4%54.7%39.8%53.8%3.6%2.8%8451,14376609994.81%% IndTrump
54
AR61,13137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%41.8%51.6%3.5%3.0%47358340346694.66%50.0%47.0%47.6%48.1%48.7%49.2%
55
AZ112,57328.9%34.4%36.7%22.8%27.3%49.8%68.6%41.2%51.0%4.1%3.7%1,0601,31310595111193.72%49.0%46.6%47.2%47.72%48.3%48.8%
56
CA5514,18243.3%28.1%28.6%34.2%22.3%43.5%56.0%48.3%44.6%3.5%3.6%6,8436,3264975155594.20%48.0%46.2%46.8%47.3%47.9%48.4%
57
CO92,78030.9%32.9%36.2%24.4%26.2%49.5%67.0%42.3%50.0%4.0%3.7%1,1771,3891121039993.75%Clinton
58
CT71,64536.4%20.8%42.8%28.7%16.5%54.7%65.6%47.5%44.4%3.9%4.1%7817316568793.44%50.0%45.0%45.0%45.0%45.0%45.0%
59
DC331380.0%10.0%10.0%63.1%8.0%28.9%31.4%66.8%27.6%2.1%3.6%20986611395.34%49.0%45.4%45.4%45.40%45.4%45.4%
60
DE344247.5%28.0%24.5%37.5%22.3%40.2%51.8%49.9%43.3%3.3%3.5%2201911516394.43%48.0%45.8%45.8%45.8%45.8%45.8%
61
FL299,42038.8%35.0%26.2%30.6%27.8%41.5%57.6%44.8%48.2%3.6%3.4%4,2204,539340321292994.30%
Vote Share Margin
62
GA164,11539.0%43.0%18.0%30.8%34.2%35.0%53.2%42.8%50.7%3.5%3.0%1,7632,085143124161694.73%50.0%2.0%2.6%3.1%3.7%4.2%
63
HI443849.0%35.0%16.0%38.7%27.8%33.5%46.4%48.7%45.0%3.1%3.2%2131971414494.88%49.0%1.2%1.8%2.32%2.9%3.4%
64
IA61,56631.1%32.0%36.9%24.5%25.4%50.0%67.1%42.6%49.6%4.0%3.7%66877763596693.72%48.0%0.4%1.0%1.5%2.1%2.6%
65
ID469027.0%52.0%21.0%21.3%41.3%37.3%63.7%36.0%57.2%3.9%2.9%24839527204494.51%
Vote Margin (000)
66
IL205,53647.0%35.0%18.0%37.1%27.8%35.1%48.6%47.9%45.7%3.2%3.2%2,6522,5281781782094.76%50.0%2,7243,4874,2505,0135,776
67
IN112,74137.0%44.0%19.0%29.2%35.0%35.8%55.1%41.8%51.6%3.5%3.0%1,1461,4149783111194.66%49.0%1,6352,3973,1603,9234,686
68
KS61,18424.7%44.1%31.2%19.5%35.1%45.4%70.0%37.1%55.4%4.1%3.3%44065649396693.98%48.0%5451,3082,0702,8333,596
69
KY81,92430.0%30.0%40.0%23.7%23.9%52.5%68.9%42.7%49.3%4.1%3.9%82294979748895.32%
70
LA82,02927.1%27.7%45.2%21.4%22.0%56.6%72.6%42.2%49.5%4.3%4.0%8571,00487828893.27%
71
MA113,32535.3%10.9%53.8%27.9%8.7%63.5%69.5%49.6%41.6%4.2%4.6%1,6491,3831381541192.87%
72
MD102,78154.9%25.7%19.4%43.3%20.4%36.2%45.5%53.3%40.3%3.0%3.5%1,4811,12083971094.73%
73
ME474831.9%27.1%41.0%25.2%21.5%53.3%67.9%44.2%47.8%4.1%4.0%33135830304493.51%136,21661,68664,896
74
MI164,79944.0%37.0%19.0%34.7%29.4%35.9%50.8%46.3%47.2%3.3%3.2%2,2202,266160153161694.70%13,1696,8436,326CA
75
MN102,94544.0%39.0%17.0%34.7%31.0%34.3%49.7%45.7%47.9%3.3%3.1%1,3471,4099791101094.80%6,9353,8493,086NY
76
MO102,80939.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%42.6%51.0%3.5%3.0%1,1961,4329784101094.78%116,11150,99455,484NET
77
MS61,20938.0%46.0%16.0%30.0%36.6%33.4%52.7%41.7%51.9%3.5%2.9%50462842356694.82%43.92%47.79%
78
MT349733.0%51.0%16.0%26.0%40.5%33.4%56.2%38.5%55.1%3.6%2.8%19227418143394.80%
79
NC154,74241.7%30.4%27.9%32.9%24.2%42.9%56.6%47.1%45.8%3.5%3.6%2,2322,1731681691594.23%
80
ND334436.0%47.0%17.0%28.4%37.4%34.2%54.6%40.7%52.9%3.5%2.9%14018212103394.76%
81
NE584430.9%48.3%20.8%24.4%38.4%37.2%60.4%38.4%54.8%3.8%3.0%324463322514494.54%
82
NH474227.2%30.1%42.7%21.5%23.9%54.6%71.8%41.6%50.2%4.2%3.9%30937231294493.40%
83
NJ143,90732.7%19.7%47.6%25.8%15.7%58.5%69.4%46.4%45.2%4.1%4.3%1,8121,7661621671493.18%
84
NM579846.6%31.2%22.2%36.8%24.8%38.4%51.1%48.7%44.6%3.3%3.4%3893562627594.55%
85
NV61,12539.7%34.6%25.7%31.3%27.5%41.2%56.8%45.2%47.8%3.6%3.4%50953840386694.33%
86
NY297,45549.4%23.9%26.7%39.0%19.0%42.0%51.9%51.6%41.4%3.3%3.7%3,8493,0862452752994.33%
87
OH185,49641.0%42.0%17.0%32.4%33.4%34.2%51.4%43.8%49.7%3.4%3.0%2,4102,734186166181894.79%
88
OK71,45343.7%43.6%12.7%34.5%34.7%30.8%47.2%44.5%49.4%3.2%2.9%64671847427795.02%
89
OR72,00137.8%29.9%32.3%36.0%28.0%36.0%50.0%47.3%46.2%3.3%3.2%9479246665794.62%
90
PA206,11549.5%36.7%13.8%39.1%29.2%31.8%44.8%48.4%45.4%3.1%3.1%2,9612,7791881882094.99%
91
RI441441.5%10.9%47.6%32.8%8.7%58.6%64.1%51.9%39.7%3.9%4.5%2151641619493.22%
92
SC92,10339.0%44.0%17.0%30.8%35.0%34.2%52.7%42.6%51.0%3.5%3.0%8951,07273639994.78%
93
SD337033.8%46.2%20.0%26.7%36.7%36.6%57.8%40.1%53.3%3.7%3.0%14819714113394.60%
94
TN112,50835.0%47.0%18.0%27.6%37.4%35.0%55.9%40.3%53.2%3.6%2.9%1,0111,3349073111194.71%
95
TX388,96937.0%41.0%22.0%29.2%32.6%38.2%56.7%42.6%50.6%3.6%3.2%3,8204,543323284383894.51%
96
UT61,13126.0%59.0%15.0%20.5%46.9%32.6%61.3%28.0%45.5%3.8%2.6%31651543296694.82%
97
VA133,98340.0%42.0%18.0%31.6%33.4%35.0%52.6%43.5%50.0%3.4%3.0%1,7311,993137121131394.73%
98
VT332047.0%31.0%22.0%37.1%24.6%38.3%50.8%48.9%44.4%3.3%3.4%1571421111394.56%
99
WA123,18445.0%45.0%10.0%35.5%35.8%28.7%44.7%44.6%49.5%3.2%2.8%1,4201,57510089121295.16%
100
WI102,97643.0%41.0%16.0%33.9%32.6%33.5%49.6%44.9%48.8%3.3%3.0%1,3351,4529990101094.85%
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