ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
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A light web version of the Excel spreadsheet at: http://www.truthcoin.info/papers/LogMSR_Demo.xlsx
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Total Capital Supplied (BTC)20
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Liquidity Parameter14.42695041
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB#1#3
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Blocksize >1 MB#2#4
Red: higher blocksize, Blue: 1 MB blocksize, (Orange: today's expected future value)
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EDITABLE (Numbers only, please)exp_sum
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SharesShare PricesLMSR (Market Account)Update Cost (User Pays)Exchange RateP(Increase)
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Time#1#2#3#4#1#2#3#40--1 MB>1 MBexpected
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17.07.07.07.025.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%2727$25,000$25,00050.00%$25,0006.50
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212.014.014.012.023.27%26.73%26.73%23.27%33.034629646.034629642$26,730$23,27050.00%$25,0009.87
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318.019.019.017.024.53%26.29%26.29%22.89%38.273592985.238963334$25,866$23,27049.18%$24,58914.20
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426.023.023.023.029.10%23.63%23.63%23.63%43.810479275.536886296$22,410$25,00047.27%$23,63420.84
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534.030.031.029.030.51%23.13%24.78%21.58%51.124714077.314234793$22,410$24,13444.70%$23,18134.59
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640.038.037.037.028.61%24.91%23.24%23.24%58.053153066.928438992$22,410$24,13448.15%$23,24055.92
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745.043.045.043.026.73%23.27%26.73%23.27%64.034629645.981476585$25,000$25,00046.54%$25,00084.65
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853.051.051.049.028.58%24.88%24.88%21.66%71.069259287.034629642$23,270$23,27046.54%$23,270137.85
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960.057.056.056.030.05%24.41%22.77%22.77%77.346419796.277160503$21,556$24,13447.18%$22,772212.99
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1068.064.060.063.032.90%24.94%18.90%23.27%84.037458466.691038675$18,241$24,13448.20%$21,081338.67
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1175.070.068.069.033.53%23.71%20.64%22.12%90.764897016.727438546$19,051$24,13445.83%$21,381539.88
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1276.070.069.071.633.18%21.89%20.43%24.50%91.915424591.150527585$19,051$26,40646.39%$22,463584.70
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1383.677.075.978.834.06%21.56%19.98%24.40%99.136678877.221254274$18,482$26,54645.96%$22,189964.52
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1486.680.078.981.834.06%21.56%19.98%24.40%102.13667893$18,482$26,54645.96%$22,1891187.46
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1589.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.9334113-0.2032676042$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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1689.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.93341130$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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1789.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.93341130$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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1889.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.93341130$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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1989.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.93341130$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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89.645.981.984.842.53%2.06%24.94%30.47%101.93341130$18,482$46,83832.52%$27,7051170.85
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At t = 12 someone purchases the "pro-increase portfolio".
("pro-increase portfolio" shares in box form)
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At the given level of Initial Capital Supplied (cell C5)...
1.001.00
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...it consisted of these shares...
1.000.001.002.62<-->0.002.62
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...and it cost...1.1505
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...but if we had infinitely liquid markets it would have cost 1 (try increasing "total capital supplied" at the top).
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...the b-independent price, by naive multiplication...
1.1223
..(while currently ~8% overexpensive, this is sometimes underexpensive, depends on price-distribution).
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Now, assume that the future Bitcoin price is...
$4,800...or...9.60%
...of the way between 0 and 50,000
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...and recall that it was...
$21,381
...when the "pro-increase portfolio" was purchased (t=11)...
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...implying a Bitcoin Return of...
-77.550%.
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB???
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Blocksize >1 MB???
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So, we can fill in this half ---------------------------------->
90.40%9.60%
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If the blocksize does increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB0%0%0.00%
<----------- Now, this half.
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Blocksize >1 MB90%10%100.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue0.2520
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b-indep Cost1.1223
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return-77.550%
(equal to E49...fully replicated)
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IL Return-74.805%
(approaches E49 as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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If the blocksize does not increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB90%10%100.00%
<----------- Reversed.
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Blocksize >1 MB0%0%0.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue1.0000
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b-indep Cost1.1223
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return-10.895%
(approaches zero as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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IL Return0.000%
(equal to zero, full refund)
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It is best to have the b-indep and IL returns equal each other...
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...this happens when b is high (ie large "Total Capital Supplied")....
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...which costs money, so take out your wallets, please!
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Changing the Units from BTC to USD
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Setup
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Sum#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
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Random Numbers3.0880.5990.0850.7100.5940.6280.1320.3260.015
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Initial Prices19.39%2.76%23.00%19.22%20.34%4.27%10.54%0.48%
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Random Numbers2.0920.9780.6270.1460.341