ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
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A light web version of the Excel spreadsheet at: http://www.truthcoin.info/papers/LogMSR_Demo.xlsx
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Total Capital Supplied (BTC)20
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Liquidity Parameter14.42695041
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB#1#3
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Blocksize >1 MB#2#4
Red: higher blocksize, Blue: 1 MB blocksize, (Orange: today's expected future value)
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EDITABLE (Numbers only, please)exp_sum
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SharesShare PricesLMSR (Market Account)Update Cost (User Pays)Exchange RateP(Increase)
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Time#1#2#3#4#1#2#3#40--1 MB>1 MBexpected
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18.05.05.07.028.11%22.83%22.83%26.23%26.308790826.3087908$22,410$26,73049.06%$24,5296.19
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216.011.010.011.032.53%23.00%21.46%23.00%32.20101925.892228408$19,875$25,00046.01%$22,2339.32
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320.015.016.016.031.03%21.94%23.52%23.52%36.883251124.682231919$21,556$25,86645.46%$23,51512.89
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428.020.024.024.032.36%18.59%24.53%24.53%44.276375337.393124209$21,556$28,44443.11%$24,52621.52
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532.026.029.028.030.96%20.43%25.15%23.46%48.914737024.638361691$22,410$26,73043.89%$24,30629.68
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640.031.033.036.034.37%18.42%21.16%26.05%55.406806116.492069089$19,051$29,28944.47%$23,60446.55
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747.038.040.043.034.37%18.42%21.16%26.05%62.406806117$19,051$29,28944.47%$23,60475.62
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853.045.046.050.033.31%19.13%20.50%27.06%68.86007496.453268785$19,051$29,28946.19%$23,780118.28
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960.049.053.054.036.47%17.01%22.45%24.06%74.551457845.69138294$19,051$29,28941.08%$23,257175.48
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1066.054.060.058.037.46%16.31%24.72%21.52%80.165038385.613580547$19,875$28,44437.82%$23,116258.95
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1172.059.067.064.037.21%15.11%26.31%21.37%86.263088576.098050189$20,711$29,28936.48%$23,840395.16
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1273.059.068.066.436.77%13.93%26.00%23.29%87.433616081.170527511$20,711$31,28637.23%$24,648428.56
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1380.364.974.873.137.99%13.06%25.95%22.99%94.262356646.828740561$20,292$31,88436.06%$24,472687.99
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1483.367.977.876.137.99%13.06%25.95%22.99%97.262356643$20,292$31,88436.06%$24,472847.01
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1586.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740161.358383517$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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1686.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740160$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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1786.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740160$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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1886.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740160$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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1986.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740160$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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86.345.980.879.142.57%2.59%29.08%25.77%98.620740160$20,292$45,43628.35%$27,421930.64
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At t = 12 someone purchases the "pro-increase portfolio".
("pro-increase portfolio" shares in box form)
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At the given level of Initial Capital Supplied (cell C5)...
1.001.00
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...it consisted of these shares...
1.000.001.002.41<-->0.002.41
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...and it cost...1.1705
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...but if we had infinitely liquid markets it would have cost 1 (try increasing "total capital supplied" at the top).
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...the b-independent price, by naive multiplication...
1.1511
..(while currently ~8% overexpensive, this is sometimes underexpensive, depends on price-distribution).
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Now, assume that the future Bitcoin price is...
$4,800...or...9.60%
...of the way between 0 and 50,000
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...and recall that it was...
$23,840
...when the "pro-increase portfolio" was purchased (t=11)...
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...implying a Bitcoin Return of...
-79.866%.
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB???
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Blocksize >1 MB???
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So, we can fill in this half ---------------------------------->
90.40%9.60%
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If the blocksize does increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB0%0%0.00%
<----------- Now, this half.
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Blocksize >1 MB90%10%100.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue0.2318
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b-indep Cost1.1511
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return-79.866%
(equal to E49...fully replicated)
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IL Return-76.824%
(approaches E49 as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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If the blocksize does not increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB90%10%100.00%
<----------- Reversed.
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Blocksize >1 MB0%0%0.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue1.0000
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b-indep Cost1.1511
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return-13.127%
(approaches zero as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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IL Return0.000%
(equal to zero, full refund)
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It is best to have the b-indep and IL returns equal each other...
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...this happens when b is high (ie large "Total Capital Supplied")....
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...which costs money, so take out your wallets, please!
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Changing the Units from BTC to USD
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Setup
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Sum#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
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Random Numbers3.8040.0320.1350.9540.9740.7950.1950.6080.112
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Initial Prices0.83%3.55%25.08%25.60%20.89%5.12%15.99%2.95%
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Random Numbers1.5660.0840.1330.6310.719