ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACAD
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A light web version of the Excel spreadsheet at: http://www.truthcoin.info/papers/LogMSR_Demo.xlsx
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Total Capital Supplied (BTC)20
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Liquidity Parameter14.42695041
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB#1#3
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Blocksize >1 MB#2#4
Red: higher blocksize, Blue: 1 MB blocksize, (Orange: today's expected future value)
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EDITABLE (Numbers only, please)exp_sum
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SharesShare PricesLMSR (Market Account)Update Cost (User Pays)Exchange RateP(Increase)
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Time#1#2#3#4#1#2#3#40--1 MB>1 MBexpected
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14.07.07.06.021.69%26.70%26.70%24.91%26.0507565526.05075655$27,590$24,13451.61%$25,8066.08
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28.013.011.011.020.51%29.00%25.25%25.25%30.858467644.807711084$27,590$23,27054.25%$25,2468.49
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312.020.017.016.018.27%31.80%25.83%24.10%36.528122185.669654544$29,289$21,55655.90%$24,96612.58
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417.025.023.023.017.32%30.16%26.26%26.26%42.29204835.763926124$30,125$23,27056.42%$26,25718.76
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522.030.031.030.015.75%27.43%29.39%27.43%48.663630886.37158258$32,554$25,00054.85%$28,41129.17
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628.036.035.034.017.00%29.60%27.62%25.77%53.561405994.897775105$30,949$23,27055.38%$26,69740.96
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734.040.042.041.017.00%25.77%29.60%27.62%59.561405996$31,759$25,86653.39%$28,61362.08
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841.048.049.047.017.00%27.62%29.60%25.77%66.561405997$31,759$24,13453.39%$27,688100.86
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945.053.056.054.014.81%25.79%31.75%27.64%72.550401075.988995078$34,094$25,86653.43%$29,698152.75
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1050.061.060.061.013.72%29.42%27.45%29.42%78.653435716.103034646$33,333$25,00058.83%$28,431233.19
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1155.068.066.067.012.65%31.16%27.12%29.07%84.824428446.170992723$34,094$24,13460.22%$28,096357.66
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1256.068.067.068.512.80%29.40%27.43%30.37%85.660324910.8358964739$34,094$25,40459.77%$28,900378.99
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1361.674.873.775.311.91%29.73%27.55%30.81%92.29891756.638592592$34,910$25,44560.54%$29,179600.45
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1464.677.876.778.311.91%29.73%27.55%30.81%95.29891753$34,910$25,44560.54%$29,179739.24
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1567.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.74156911-1.557348392$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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1667.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.741569110$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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1767.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.741569110$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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1867.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.741569110$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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1967.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.741569110$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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67.645.979.781.316.33%3.63%37.78%42.25%93.741569110$34,910$46,04545.88%$40,019663.59
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At t = 12 someone purchases the "pro-increase portfolio".
("pro-increase portfolio" shares in box form)
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At the given level of Initial Capital Supplied (cell C5)...
1.001.00
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...it consisted of these shares...
1.000.001.001.47<-->0.001.47
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...and it cost...0.8359
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...but if we had infinitely liquid markets it would have cost 1 (try increasing "total capital supplied" at the top).
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...the b-independent price, by naive multiplication...
0.8241
..(while currently ~8% overexpensive, this is sometimes underexpensive, depends on price-distribution).
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Now, assume that the future Bitcoin price is...
$4,800...or...9.60%
...of the way between 0 and 50,000
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...and recall that it was...
$28,096
...when the "pro-increase portfolio" was purchased (t=11)...
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...implying a Bitcoin Return of...
-82.916%.
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB???
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Blocksize >1 MB???
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So, we can fill in this half ---------------------------------->
90.40%9.60%
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If the blocksize does increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB0%0%0.00%
<----------- Now, this half.
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Blocksize >1 MB90%10%100.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue0.1408
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b-indep Cost0.8241
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return-82.916%
(equal to E49...fully replicated)
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IL Return-85.921%
(approaches E49 as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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If the blocksize does not increase...
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StatesGoal Metric (USD/BTC)
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Min (0$)Max ($50,000)
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Blocksize 1 MB90%10%100.00%
<----------- Reversed.
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Blocksize >1 MB0%0%0.00%
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90.40%9.60%
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Revenue1.0000
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b-indep Cost0.8241
(if bought at avaliable prices)
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Infinite Liquidity Cost1.0000
(if bought at avaliable prices under infinite liquidity)
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b-indep Return21.351%
(approaches zero as liquidity increases or ERs equalize)
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IL Return0.000%
(equal to zero, full refund)
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It is best to have the b-indep and IL returns equal each other...
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...this happens when b is high (ie large "Total Capital Supplied")....
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...which costs money, so take out your wallets, please!
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Changing the Units from BTC to USD
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Setup
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Sum#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8
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Random Numbers2.9600.5050.5210.2770.0640.2660.0360.7240.568
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Initial Prices17.06%17.59%9.37%2.15%8.98%1.20%24.46%19.19%
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Random Numbers2.2490.3060.8580.2130.872