2019-2020 Key States
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Source: DCCC top 33 targetsSource: NDRC and Sister District ProjectEd Loechler
U.S. 2016 Census
https://swingleft.org/group/texas-hd92
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SLGB 2020 PageCompetitive Congressional DistrictPresidential Election - 2020Senate Election - 2020Critical State RacesEligible Voter Participation 2016
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Key States Directory
DistrictCook RatingDCCC Target DistrictsElectoral VotesCook Rating2016 Election MarginIncumbentCook Sabato RatingInside Elections RatingsLegislature 2019Governor 2019Legislature 2020Governor 2020Outreach Impact FactorRegistered 2016Voted 2016Swing Left Greater Boston Trip to Flip Captain (Provisional)Swing Left Redistricting Priority Rating (0-3)Swing Left Electoral College Priority Rating (0-3)Swing Left Senate Priority Rating (0-2)Swing Left 2019 Priority Score (0-1)Swing Left Super State Aggregate ScoreForce MultiplierSister DistrictMovement Voter Project 2020Movement Voter Project - Key Presidential and Senate StatesEnvironmental Voter ProjectCommon PurposeSwing Left Texas-HD92FlippableAdd your group (using the suggestion feature)
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Alabama9Trump +28.3%Doug JonesLean DTossupLeanRAL - Woke Vote
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ArizonaOther NA11TossupTrump +4.1%McSallyLean RTossupTossup10.8668.60%60.40%?22"Super State" 4/9AZ - 7 groupsP, SMaybe
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AZ-01Likely D
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AZ-02Likely D
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AZ-06Likely RAZ-06
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ColoradoCO-03CO-0313Likely DClinton +2.8%Cory GardnerLean RTossupTossup5.9474.30%69.50%12"Super State" 3/9Supported Jason Crow in 2018CO - 5 groupsSDenver, Colorado Springs Mayoral Races
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CO-06Likely D
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FloridaOther N/A29TossupTrump +1.3%Yes23.14Matt Connolly32"Super State" 5/9FL (Legislature)FL - 9 groupsPNorth Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando Mayoral RaceCommon Purpose 2019: Register voters after Amendment 4 (Felony voting rights) passed
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FL-15Lean RFL-15
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FL-18
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FL-26Lean D
Supported Debbie Mucarsel Powell in 2018
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GeorgiaOther N/A16Lean RTrump +5.7%David PerdueLikely RLean RLean RYes6.8369.40%60.20%311"Super State" 5/9GA (Legislature)GA - New Georgia ProjectSYes
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GA-06Tossup
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GA-07 (open)TossupGA-07
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IowaOther N/AIA-046Lean RTrump +9.6%Joni ErnstSolid RLean RLikelyR3.6772.30%63.40%?11"Cusp State" 2/9Supported Abby Finkenauer in 2018
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IA-01Tossup
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IA-03TossupSupported Cindy Axne in 2018
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KentuckyOther N/A8Trump +29.8%Mitch McConnellLikely RLean RSolid RYes69.40%57%11"Cusp State" 2/9
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KY-02Likely R
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KY-06Likely R
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Louisiana8Trump +19.7%Bill CassidySolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RYesYes1"Cusp State" 1/9LA (Gov, Legislature) 2019
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MaineME-02Tossup1 (ME-02)Lean RClinton +2.7%Susan CollinsLean RLean RTiltRYes (added by Sarah L)2.4880%72.70%Paula Joseph12"Super State" 3/9Supported Jared Golden in 2018ME - MPAS
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MichiganOtherN/A16TossupTrump +.3%Gary PetersSolid DLean DLikelyDYes134.66?3"Super State" 3/9MI- 6 groupsP, S
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MI-06Likely RKY-06
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MI-08TossupSupported Elissa Slotkin in 2018
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MI-11Lean D
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MinnesotaOtherN/AMI-0610Lean DClinton +1.5%Tina SmithLikely DLean DLikelyDYes20.1311"Cusp State" 2/9MN (Legislature)
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MN-01Likely RMN-01
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MN-02Lean DSupported Angie Craig in 2018
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MN-03Likely D
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MN-07Lean D
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MN-08Likely R
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Mississippi6Trump +18.6%Cindy Hyde-SmithLikely RLikely/Solid RLikely RYes2.51MS (Legislature) 2019Common Cause 2019: possible amendment modeled on Amendment 4 that would restore voting rights. Possibly work with Mississippi Votes
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NebraskaNE-02Lean RNE-021 (NE-02)Lean RTrump +26.3%Ben SasseSolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RNE - Bold Nebraska / New Energy Voter Project
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NevadaNV-03Lean D6Lean DClinton +.2%19.871"Cusp State" 1/9NV - 3 groupsLas Vegas Mayoral Race
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New Hampshire
NH-01Lean D4Lean DClinton +.4%Jeanne ShaheenSolid DLean DLikelyDYes131.7111"Cusp State" 2/9NH - NH Youth Movement / Rights and DemocracyP
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North CarolinaOtherN/A15Lean RTrump +3.8%Thom TillisLikely RLean RTilt RYes7.8074.60%67.50%Nancy Brown322"Super State" 7/9NC (Legislature)NC - 5 groupsS
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NC-02Lean RNC-02
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NC-09Lean RNC-09
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NC-13
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OhioOtherN/A18Likely RTrump +8.6%Yes3.6331"Super State" 4/9OH (Legislature)OH - OH Student Assn
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OH-01Lean ROH-01
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OH-12Likely R
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PennsylvaniaOtherN/A20TossupTrump +1.2%Yes40.68Bob Scheier13"Super State" 4/9PA (Legislature)PA - 8 groupsPYes
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PA-01Lean RPA-01
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PA-07Likely D
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PA-08Lean DSupported Chrissy Houlihan in 2018
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PA-10Lean RPA-10
( no did not as she moved to Likely D-Dale)
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PA-16Likely RPA-16
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PA-17Likely D
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TexasOtherN/A38Likely RTrump +9.2%John CornynSolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RYes4.24%67.50%55.40%311"Super State" 5/9TX (Legislature)
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TX-06Likely R
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TX-07Lean D
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TX-10Lean RTX-10
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TX-21Lean RTX-21
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TX-22Lean RTX-22
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TX-23TossupTX-23Supported Gina Ortiz Jones in 2018
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TX-24TossupTX-24State House District 92HD-92
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TX-31Lean RTX-31
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TX-32Lean DSupported Colin Allred in 2018
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VirginiaOtherN/A9Likely DClinton +4.9%Mark WarnerSolid DLean DSolid D
Senate (19 D, 21 R)
House (49 D, 50 R)
5.52?11"Cusp State" 2/9VA (Legislature) 2019VA - VA Student Power / New VA MajorityCommon Purpose 2019: state legislature flip: oter registration and voter mobilization
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VA-02Lean DList Senate/House districts within VA-02
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VA-05Likely RList Senate/House districts within VA-05Supported Abigail Spanberger in 2018
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VA-07Lean DList Senate/House districts within VA-07
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VA-10Likely DList Senate/House districts within VA-10
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WisconsinWI-03Likely D10TossupTrump +1%State Supreme CourtYes39.60131"Super State" 5/9WI - 5 groupsPCommon Purpose 2019: Wisconsin State Supreme Court election in 2019
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Other States
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CaliforniaCA-22
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CA-50
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New MexicoNM-02Tossup
75
IllinoisIL-13IL-13
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IL-14TossupIL-14
77
IN-05
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MissouriMO-01
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New JerseyNJ03Tossup
80
New YorkNY-02
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NY19Tossup
82
NY22Tossup
83
NY-24
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NY-27
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OklahomaOK05Tossup
86
South CarolinaSC01Tossup
87
WashingtonWA-03
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89
90
91
92
93
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Movement Voter Project key states - evaluate for integration above
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Tier 1 Priority States = Top Tier Presidential states in 2020
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State
Presidential Swing
State
Key
Senate
Race
Flippable
House
Seats
Opportunity
to Impact Redistricting
2022-2024
Senate
State
Ballot
Measures &
Key Downballot
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ArizonaYesPossibly1TBDYes
2020 DAs
Ballot Measure State
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FloridaYesNo4YesYes
2020 DAs
Medicaid Expansion
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MichiganYesPossibly3YesYes
2020 DAs
Ballot Measure State
100
New HampshireYesYes1YesTBDGovernor 2020
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