2019-2020 Key States
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Source: DCCC top 33 targetsSource: Ed LoechlerSource: NDRC and Sister District ProjectEd Loechler
U.S. 2016 Census
https://swingleft.org/group/texas-hd92
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SLGB 2020 PageCompetitive Congressional DistrictPresidential Election - 2020Senate Election - 2020Critical State RacesEligible Voter Participation 2016
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Key States Directory
DistrictCook RatingDCCC Target DistrictsElectoral VotesCook Rating2016 Election MarginIncumbentCook Sabato RatingInside Elections RatingsMeta-PVILegislature 2019Governor 2019Legislature 2020Governor 2020Outreach Impact FactorRegistered 2016Voted 2016Swing Left Greater Boston Trip to Flip Captain (Provisional)Swing Left Redistricting Priority Rating (0-3)Swing Left Electoral College Priority Rating (0-3)Swing Left Senate Priority Rating (0-2)Swing Left 2019 Priority Score (0-1)Swing Left Super State Aggregate ScoreForce MultiplierSister DistrictMovement Voter Project 2020Movement Voter Project - Key Presidential and Senate StatesEnvironmental Voter ProjectCommon PurposeSwing Left Texas-HD92Add your group (using the suggestion feature)
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Alabama9Trump +28.3%Doug JonesLean DTossupLeanRAL - Woke Vote
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ArizonaOther NA11TossupTrump +4.1%McSallyLean RTossupTossup10.8668.60%60.40%?22"Super State" 4/9AZ - 7 groupsP, SMaybe
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AZ-01Likely D
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AZ-02Likely D
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AZ-06Likely RAZ-06
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ColoradoCO-03CO-0313Likely DClinton +2.8%Cory GardnerLean RTossupTossupD +3.55.9474.30%69.50%12"Super State" 3/9Supported Jason Crow in 2018CO - 5 groupsSDenver, Colorado Springs Mayoral Races
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CO-06Likely D
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FloridaOther N/A29TossupTrump +1.3%Yes23.14Steve Rosenfeld32"Super State" 5/9FL (Legislature)FL - 9 groupsPNorth Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa and Orlando Mayoral RaceCommon Purpose 2019: Register voters after Amendment 4 (Felony voting rights) passed
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FL-15Lean RFL-15
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FL-18
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FL-26Lean D
Supported Debbie Mucarsel Powell in 2018
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GeorgiaOther N/A16Lean RTrump +5.7%David PerdueLikely RLean RLean RYes6.8369.40%60.20%311"Super State" 5/9GA (Legislature)GA - New Georgia ProjectSYes
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GA-06Tossup
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GA-07 (open)TossupGA-07
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IowaOther N/AIA-046Lean RTrump +9.6%Joni ErnstSolid RLean RLikelyR3.6772.30%63.40%?11"Super State" 2/9Supported Abby Finkenauer in 2018
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IA-01Tossup
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IA-03TossupSupported Cindy Axne in 2018
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KentuckyOther N/A8Trump +29.8%Mitch McConnellLikely RLean RSolid RYes69.40%57%11"Super State" 2/9
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KY-02Likely R
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KY-06Likely R
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Louisiana8Trump +19.7%Bill CassidySolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RYesYes1"Cusp State" 1/9LA (Gov, Legislature) 2019
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MaineME-02Tossup1 (ME-02)Lean RClinton +2.7%Susan CollinsLean RLean RTiltRD+1.4Yes (added by Sarah L)2.4880%72.70%Paula Joseph12"Super State" 3/9Supported Jared Golden in 2018ME - MPAS
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MichiganOtherN/A16TossupTrump +.3%Gary PetersSolid DLean DLikelyDYes134.66?3"Super State" 3/9MI- 6 groupsP, S
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MI-06Likely RKY-06
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MI-08TossupSupported Elissa Slotkin in 2018
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MI-11Lean D
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MinnesotaOtherN/AMI-0610Lean DClinton +1.5%Tina SmithLikely DLean DLikelyDYes20.1311"Cusp State" 2/9MN (Legislature)
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MN-01Likely RMN-01
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MN-02Lean DSupported Angie Craig in 2018
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MN-03Likely D
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MN-07Lean D
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MN-08Likely R
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Mississippi6Trump +18.6%Cindy Hyde-SmithLikely RLikely/Solid RLikely RYes2.51MS (Legislature) 2019Common Cause 2019: possible amendment modeled on Amendment 4 that would restore voting rights. Possibly work with Mississippi Votes
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NebraskaNE-02Lean RNE-021 (NE-02)Lean RTrump +26.3%Ben SasseSolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RNE - Bold Nebraska / New Energy Voter Project
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NevadaNV-03Lean D6Lean DClinton +.2%19.871"Cusp State" 1/9NV - 3 groupsLas Vegas Mayoral Race
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New Hampshire
NH-01Lean D4Lean DClinton +.4%Jeanne ShaheenSolid DLean DLikelyDYes131.7111"Cusp State" 2/9NH - NH Youth Movement / Rights and DemocracyP
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North CarolinaOtherN/A15Lean RTrump +3.8%Thom TillisLikely RLean RTilt RYes7.8074.60%67.50%Nancy Brown322"Super State" 7/9NC (Legislature)NC - 5 groupsS
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NC-02Lean RNC-02
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NC-09Lean RNC-09
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NC-13
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OhioOtherN/A18Likely RTrump +8.6%Yes3.6331"Super State" 4/9OH (Legislature)OH - OH Student Assn
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OH-01Lean ROH-01
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OH-12Likely R
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PennsylvaniaOtherN/A20TossupTrump +1.2%Yes40.68Bob Scheier13"Super State" 4/9PA (Legislature)PA - 8 groupsPYes
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PA-01Lean RPA-01
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PA-07Likely D
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PA-08Lean DSupported Chrissy Houlihan in 2018
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PA-10Lean RPA-10
( no did not as she moved to Likely D-Dale)
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PA-16Likely RPA-16
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PA-17Likely D
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TexasOtherN/A38Likely RTrump +9.2%John CornynSolid RLikely/Solid RSolid RYes4.24%67.50%55.40%311"Super State" 5/9TX (Legislature)
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TX-06Likely R
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TX-07Lean D
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TX-10Lean RTX-10
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TX-21Lean RTX-21
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TX-22Lean RTX-22
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TX-23TossupTX-23Supported Gina Ortiz Jones in 2018
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TX-24TossupTX-24State House District 92HD-92
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TX-31Lean RTX-31
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TX-32Lean DSupported Colin Allred in 2018
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VirginiaOtherN/A9Likely DClinton +4.9%Mark WarnerSolid DLean DSolid D
Senate (19 D, 21 R)
House (49 D, 50 R)
5.52?11"Cusp State" 2/9VA (Legislature) 2019VA - VA Student Power / New VA MajorityCommon Purpose 2019: state legislature flip: oter registration and voter mobilization
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VA-02Lean DList Senate/House districts within VA-02
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VA-05Likely RList Senate/House districts within VA-05Supported Abigail Spanberger in 2018
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VA-07Lean DList Senate/House districts within VA-07
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VA-10Likely DList Senate/House districts within VA-10
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WisconsinWI-03Likely D10TossupTrump +1%State Supreme CourtYes39.60Mark Bernstein131"Super State" 5/9WI - 5 groupsPCommon Purpose 2019: Wisconsin State Supreme Court election in 2019
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Other States
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CaliforniaCA-22
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CA-50
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New MexicoNM-02Tossup
75
IllinoisIL-13IL-13
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IL-14TossupIL-14
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IN-05
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MissouriMO-01
79
New JerseyNJ03Tossup
80
New YorkNY-02
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NY19Tossup
82
NY22Tossup
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NY-24
84
NY-27
85
OklahomaOK05Tossup
86
South CarolinaSC01Tossup
87
WashingtonWA-03
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89
90
91
92
93
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Movement Voter Project key states - evaluate for integration above
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Tier 1 Priority States = Top Tier Presidential states in 2020
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State
Presidential Swing
State
Key
Senate
Race
Flippable
House
Seats
Opportunity
to Impact Redistricting
2022-2024
Senate
State
Ballot
Measures &
Key Downballot
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ArizonaYesPossibly1TBDYes
2020 DAs
Ballot Measure State
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FloridaYesNo4YesYes
2020 DAs
Medicaid Expansion
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MichiganYesPossibly3YesYes
2020 DAs
Ballot Measure State
100
New HampshireYesYes1YesTBDGovernor 2020
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