ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAHAIAJAKALAMANAOAP
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Parameters to adjust across locationsLow-income countriesNigeriaMalawiIndonesiaBurkina FasoTogoDemocratic Republic of the CongoChad10% higher unintended pregnancies10% higher % of unintended pregnancies that result in abortion10% higher Maternal mortality ratio10% higher neonatal mortality10% higher under-5 mortality10% higher under-20 mortality10% higher total fertility rate10% higher household sizeNotes
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Unintended pregnancies averted per year of modern contraception use0.300.320.290.230.280.320.380.300.330.300.300.300.300.300.300.30
We take a weighted average of our best guess, our best guess multiplied by the ratio of the country's unintended pregnancies to the average country, and our best guess multiplied by the ratio of the country's unintended pregnancies averted estimate to the average country. Refer to "Adjusted pregnancies averted model using surveys" sheet for data
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% of unintended pregnancies that result in abortion (unadjusted)37%48%27%64%41%34%28%30%37%41%37%37%37%37%37%37%
See 'AIU 2019 data' sheet. Source: Adding It Up: Investing in Sexual and Reproductive Health 2019 data
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% of unintended pregnancies that result in abortion37%43%32%50%39%36%32%34%37%41%37%37%37%37%37%37%
Calculation. Average of sub-Saharan Africa average and the country-level
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Maternal mortality ratio (Ratio of maternal deaths to live births) (Best guess)0.35%0.67%0.31%0.16%0.24%0.31%0.48%0.76%0.35%0.35%0.38%0.35%0.35%0.35%0.35%0.35%
Calculation. Average of estimate for 2021 from IHME and estimate for 2020 from WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group, and UNDESA/Population Division. Trends in Maternal Mortality 2000 to 2020. Geneva, World Health Organization, 2023
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Maternal mortality ratio (IHME)0.29%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%--------
Source: IHME GBD 2021
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Maternal mortality ratio (World Bank)0.41%1.05%0.4%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%1.1%--------
Source: World Development Indicators, WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group, and UNDESA/Population Division. Trends in Maternal Mortality 2000 to 2020. Geneva, World Health Organization, 2023
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Infant mortality rate (Best guess)4.7%6.5%3.3%1.9%5.4%4.0%5.0%6.6%4.7%4.7%4.7%5.19%4.7%4.7%4.7%4.7%
Calculation. Average of UN IGME estimate of neonatal mortality in 2022 and IHME estimate in 2021
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Infant mortality rate (IHME)4.67%6.09%3.6%2.0%5.7%3.7%4.0%6.8%--------
Source: IHME GBD 2021
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Infant mortality rate (UN IGME)4.76%6.9%3.0%1.8%5.0%4.2%6.0%6.4%--------
Source: UN IGME 2022
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Under-5 mortality rate (Best guess)6.9%11.2%4.7%2.3%9.3%6.0%6.8%11.5%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%7.6%6.9%6.9%6.9%
Average of UN IGME estimate of under-5 mortality rate in 2022 and IHME estimate in 2021
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Under-5 mortality rate (IHME)7.36%10.6%5.4%2.4%10.7%5.9%6.1%12.8%--------
Source: IHME GBD 2021
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Under-5 mortality rate (UN IGME)6.50%11.7%4.0%2.1%7.9%6.0%7.6%10.3%--------
Source: UN IGME 2022
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Under-20 mortality rate10.0%13.9%7.4%3.2%15.6%8.1%8.5%19.1%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%11.0%10.0%10.0%
Source: IHME GBD 2021
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Total fertility rate4.55.13.82.24.74.26.16.24.54.54.54.54.54.55.04.5
Source: World Development Indicators, WHO, UNICEF, UNFPA, World Bank Group, and UNDESA/Population Division. Trends in Maternal Mortality 2000 to 2020. Geneva, World Health Organization, 2023
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Household size4.64.64.54.05.74.65.35.84.64.64.64.64.64.64.65.1
Refer to "Household size" sheet
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Orange highlights signals that this parameter was adjusted relative to "Model"
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Unintended pregnancies averted
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Unintended pregnancies averted per year of modern contraception0.300.320.290.230.280.320.380.300.330.300.300.300.300.300.300.30
Source: Calculated above
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Breakdown of unintended pregnancies:
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% of unintended pregnancies that result in abortion37%43%32%50%39%36%32%34%37%41%37%37%37%37%37%37%
Source: Calculated above
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% of unintended pregnancies that result in miscarriage14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%
Orange highlights signals that this parameter was adjusted relative to "Model" sheet
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% of unintended pregnancies that result in unwanted or mistimed birth49%43%54%36%47%50%54%52%49%45%49%49%49%49%49%49%Calculated
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of those, % that are unwanted33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%33%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Number of abortions averted per year of modern contraception0.1120.140.090.120.110.110.120.100.120.120.110.110.110.110.110.11Calculated
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Number of miscarriages averted per year of modern contraception0.0420.0450.0410.0320.0390.0450.0540.0410.0460.0420.0420.0420.0420.0420.0420.042Calculated
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Number of mistimed births averted per year of modern contraception0.0990.0930.1050.0550.0860.1090.1370.1030.1080.0910.0990.0990.0990.0990.0990.099Calculated
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Number of unwanted births averted per year of modern contraception0.0490.0460.0530.0270.0430.0540.0680.0520.0540.0460.0490.0490.0490.0490.0490.049Calculated
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30
More resources for existing children due to fewer unwanted births
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Present value of income per affected child in terms of ln(consumption) 0.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.320.32
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Multiplier for resource sharing within households2.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.00
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Value assigned to increasing ln(consumption) by one unit for one person for one year1.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.44
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Number of children surviving to adulthood (with contraception)3.33.72.71.73.43.14.64.33.33.43.33.33.33.33.73.3
Calculated. Use the total fertility rate subtracting projective lifetime averted births and accounting for percentage who pass away before age 20 (i.e. when they can begin working). Formula: (TFR - unwanted births averted*lifetime years when want to avoid pregnancy)*(1-under 20 mortality)
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Additional benefits for existing children25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from more resources for existing children due to fewer unwanted births0.190.200.160.050.170.190.360.260.200.180.190.190.190.190.210.19Calculated
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45
Increases in household income through increased economic activity for women
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Percentage annual increase in income per year of modern contraception0.17%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Share of household income from user of contraception50%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Household size with contraception3.83.83.63.65.03.74.25.03.73.93.83.83.83.83.84.3
Calculated. Formula: Household size-unwanted births averted*lifetime years when want to avoid pregnancy
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Duration of benefits15151515151515151515151515151515
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value per increase in ln(consumption)1.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.441.44
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Discount rate4%0.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.04
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Units of value from increases in income per year of modern contraception0.050.060.050.040.060.050.070.070.060.050.050.050.050.050.050.06
Calculated. Multiply benefits for low-income countries by ratio of target country's averted pregnancies per year of use and low-income countries averted pregnancies per year of use.
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54
Reduction in maternal mortality due to fewer unwanted births, miscarriages, and abortions
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Maternal mortality ratio (Ratio of maternal deaths to live births)0.00350.00670.00310.00160.00240.00310.00480.00760.00350.00350.00380.00350.00350.00350.00350.0035See above
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Maternal deaths per birth0.00310.00600.00270.00140.00210.00270.00430.00670.00310.00310.00340.00310.00310.00310.00310.0031
Calculated. Assumes that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
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Maternal deaths per abortion0.00110.00220.00100.00050.00080.00100.00160.00250.00110.00110.00130.00110.00110.00110.00110.0011
Calculated. Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
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Maternal deaths per miscarriage0.00070.00140.00060.00030.00050.00060.00100.00150.00070.00070.00080.00070.00070.00070.00070.0007
Calculated. Assumes that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
Assume that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
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Maternal deaths averted per year of modern contraception0.00030.00060.00030.00010.00020.00030.00050.00070.00030.00030.00030.00030.00030.00030.00030.0003
Calculated. Assumes that differences in deaths per pregnancy outcome is proportional to difference in MMR between this column and "low-income countries" column
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Units of value per maternal death averted125125125125125125125125125125125125125125125125
Source: GiveWell's Facility-based MNH BOTEC
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Units of value from less maternal mortality due to fewer unwanted births and abortions per year of modern contraception
0.040.080.030.010.020.040.070.080.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.04Calculated
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Maternal deaths per birth
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Reduction in maternal mortality due to improved birth timing27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%27%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Maternal deaths averted per year of modern contraception0.000080.000150.000080.000020.000050.000080.000160.000190.000090.000080.000090.000080.000080.000080.000080.00008Calculated
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Units of value per maternal death averted125125125125125125125125125125125125125125125125
Source: GiveWell's Facility-based MNH BOTEC
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Units of value from less maternal mortality due to fewer mistimed births per year of modern contraception
0.010.0190.0100.0030.0060.0100.0200.0230.0110.0100.0110.0100.0100.0100.0100.010Calculated
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69
Reduction in maternal morbidity due to fewer unintended pregnancies
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Units of value per DALY2.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.3
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Number of unwanted births averted per year of modern contraception0.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.110.11
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from lower maternal morbidity due to fewer unwanted pregnancies0.010.0110.0130.0070.0100.0130.0170.0130.0130.0110.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.012Calculated
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DALY loss from mistimed births0.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.020.02
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from lower maternal morbidity due to fewer mistimed pregnancies0.0040.0040.00460.00240.00380.00470.00600.00450.00470.00400.00430.00430.00430.00430.00430.0043
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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DALY loss per abortion0.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.050.05
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from lower maternal morbidity due to fewer abortions0.010.0170.0120.0140.0130.0140.0150.0120.0150.0150.0140.0140.0140.0140.0140.014Calculated
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DALY loss per miscarriage0.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.04
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from lower maternal morbidity due to fewer miscarriages0.0040.0040.0030.0030.0030.0040.0040.0030.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.004Calculated
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Additional morbidity benefits30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from lower morbidity due to fewer unintended pregnancies per year of modern contraception
0.040.050.040.030.040.050.060.040.050.040.040.040.040.040.040.04Calculated
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82
Reduction in child mortality due to fewer mistimed births
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Infant mortality rate4.7%6.47%3.30%1.88%5.37%3.96%4.98%6.62%4.71%4.71%4.71%5.19%4.71%4.71%4.71%4.71%See above
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Reduction in infant mortality due to improved birth timing11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Infant deaths averted due to fewer mistimed births0.000530.000680.000400.000120.000530.000490.000780.000780.000580.000490.000530.000580.000530.000530.000530.00053Calculated
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Units of value per infant death 84848484848484848484848484848484
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Under-5 mortality rate6.9%11.16%4.72%2.28%9.28%5.97%6.81%11.53%6.93%6.93%6.93%6.93%7.62%6.93%6.93%6.93%See above
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Reduction in under-5 mortality due to improved birth timing11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%11%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Under-5 deaths averted due to fewer mistimed births (excluding infant deaths)0.000240.000490.000160.000020.000380.000240.000280.000560.000270.000220.000240.000190.000320.000240.000240.00024Calculated
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Units of value per under-5 death116116116116116116116116116116116116116116116116
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
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Additional benefits from long-term income increases ("development effects")25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%25%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
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Units of value from fewer child deaths due to improved timing per year of modern contraception
0.090.140.070.020.110.090.120.160.100.080.090.090.100.090.090.09Calculated
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94
Reduction in child morbidity due to fewer mistimed births
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Additional benefit from reduced child morbidity (as % of mortality effects)7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
96
Units of value from lower child morbidity due to fewer mistimed births per year of modern contraception
0.0060.0100.0050.0010.010.0060.0090.0110.0070.0060.0060.0060.0070.0060.0060.006Calculated
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98
Reduction in healthcare spending due to improved woman and child health
99
Additional benefit from medical costs averted (as % of health effects)20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
100
Units of value from medical costs averted per year of modern contraception0.040.060.030.010.040.040.050.060.040.040.040.040.040.040.040.04Calculated
101
102
Improvements in subjective well-being not captured by improvements in health or economic outcomes
103
DALY improvement per year of modern contraception0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10
Source: Refer to 'Model' sheet. We assume that this does not vary by country
104
Units of value per DALY2.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.32.3
Source: GiveWell's moral weights
105
Units of value from improvements in subjective well-being not captured by improvements in health or economic outcomes per year of modern contraception
0.230.240.220.180.210.250.290.230.250.230.230.230.230.230.230.23
Calculated. Multiply benefits for low-income countries by ratio of target country's averted pregnancies per year of use and low-income countries averted pregnancies per year of use.
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Low-income countriesNigeriaMalawiIndonesiaBurkina FasoTogoDRCChad10% higher unintended pregnancies10% higher % of unintended pregnancies that result in abortion10% higher Maternal mortality ratio10% higher neonatal mortality10% higher under-5 mortality10% higher under-20 mortality10% higher total fertility rate10% higher household size