ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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Extrapolated
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2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030
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Metrics
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Nights and Experiences Booked (in M)
250327193301394448492531
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growth rate31%-41%56%31%14%10%
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Gross Booking Value (in B_)
293824476373828995100106113119
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growth rate29%-37%96%35%16%12%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6%
Assumes they've reached saturation? Somewhre between 4-8% steady state seems fair. Worldcup next year could provide a boost
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Average daily rate118116124156160164166168
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Active listings5.65.66.68
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Hosts5
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GBV per listing (a measure of 'efficiency'?)
 $ 6,779 $ 4,268 $ 9,576 $ 10,225
This is what each listed property earned the owners on average
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& of revenue from international listings
63%59%
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Financial Data
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Revenue3.74.83.468.49.911.112.2117.9
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growth rate30%-29%76%40%18%12%
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Take rate12.6%12.6%14.2%12.8%13.3%13.5%13.6%13.7%15%
How has this evolved over time? How much higher can it go? Is this like cars where they upsell insurance? Maybe they can start charging to advertise?
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Cost of revenue0.861.20.881.21.51.71.92.02.9
Payment processing fees, data center hosting and amortized tech
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as a % of revenue23%25%26%20%18%17%17%16%16%
Keeping it flat to this year
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Operations and support
0.60.80.90.811.21.31.41.6
Basically just customer support. Can AI help lower costs here?
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as a % of revenue16%17%26%13%12%12%12%11%
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Product Dev0.612.81.41.51.72.12.4152.5
This seems high for such a simple website, but I don't see much motivation to cut. Maybe AI will provide some air cover to make cuts here
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as a % of revenue16%21%82%23%18%17%19%20%
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S&M1.11.61.21.21.51.82.12.52.8
If growth is as modeled here at 6%, I would expect they cut this down to $2B or less
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as a % of revenue30%33%35%20%18%18%19%20%
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G&A0.50.71.10.8121.21.21.5
This seems to include taxes, so likely goes up slightly over time
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as a % of revenue14%15%32%13%12%20%11%10%
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Total Costs3.665.36.885.46.58.48.69.511.3
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Operating Income0.04-0.5-3.480.61.91.52.52.76.6
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EBIT margin1%-10%-102%10%23%15%23%22%37%
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Interest Income0.10.10000.70.80.6
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Interest Expense000.20.40000
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Taxes0.10.300000.70.541.522%
What's the right tax rate going forward given all the regs etc.?
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Net Income0.04-0.7-3.680.21.92.22.62.85.1720
Multiple in 5 years
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103
Market cap in 5 years
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5%
5 yr CAGR on stock price alone (ignores dividends and buybacks)
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Diluted Shares Out256260284616680662645626
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Avg Price166113136131129
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mkt cap00010277908481
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NI yield0%2%2%3%3%
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P/E51140413229
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Cash
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LT Debt
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Questions
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if the take rate goes to 20%. All else equal, they make 6B in NI. 20x that for a 120B market cap. Could they get to 6B by just slashing costs if growth stabilizes?
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the only real question. Can the take rate go from 13% to 18%? All else equal, this would bea 4B boost to rev and 3B to NI. Now 5B in NI because interest rates lower. 20x = 100B. Vs 75B today. Not that exciting really…
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Fundamentally, are people earning a good return by Airbnb ing their homes vs renting? If there's a recession, does a bunch of inventory dissapear?
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growth in nights booked seems to have slowed to 7% in the most recent quarter
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what's the geographic mix today? How has it evolved in the last 5 yrs? Is t
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could they start charging host to advertise? Does that unlock another 2B stratight to bottom line? Seems like they have a lot of levers here…
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imagine if airbnb could provide an experice where they pull in flight prices vs historical so if you're looking to travel in a speicifc time window, they could say..now is a great time to go to turkey / japan etc. and and its all laid out for you so you just hit a button. why isnt expedia diong this too? maybe they are. go spend some time on the websites
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if there's a recession, are there more homes on airbnb? More superhosts? Maybe cheaper than hotels?
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1.712328767
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0.7123287671
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0.1187214612
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risks
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do they start getting taxed more?
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like hotel style regs
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did they see a decling in revenue in 2022? Are they affected by stock bullishness? I guess you had covid hangover demand so probably not
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airbnb may really be a bet on chesky given how top down the culture is. This is diff it sounds like to even meta. He seems like a smart guy and so maybe there really is still meaningful growth here, especially to earnings. Maybe not so much topline. But 10% topline with it all going to the bottom line, would put us at 7B in NI in 5 yrs. 20x and you have a double from here. its certainly interesting. he's probably more focusedon the stock price now too given whta a dog this has been, so they should run it tight.
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