Comparing Midterm Models NOV 8 FINAL

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AB	AC	AE	AF	AG	AH	AI	AJ	AK	AL	AM	AO	AP	AQ	AR	AS	AT	AU	AV	AW	AY	AZ	BA	BB	BC	BD	BE	BF	BG	BH	BI	BJ	BK	BL	BM	BN	BO	BP	BQ	BR	BS	BT	BU	BV	BW
1	state	538_margin_10	538_margin	538_margin_90	plus_margin_10	plus_margin	plus_margin_90	iabvek_margin_10	iabvek_margin	iabvek_margin_90	cory_margin_10	cory_margin	cory_margin_90	ensemble_margin_10	ensemble_margin	ensemble_margin_90	odds_crystal_ball	odds_split_ticket	odds_plus	odds_polymarket	odds_predictit	odds_cory	odds_iabvek	odds_538	odds_ensemble	result	result_margin	brier_crystal_ball	brier_split_ticket	brier_plus	brier_polymarket	brier_predictit	brier_cory	brier_iabvek	brier_538	brier_ensemble	log_loss_crystal_ball	log_loss_split_ticket	log_loss_plus	log_loss_polymarket	log_loss_predictit	log_loss_cory	log_loss_iabvek	log_loss_538	log_loss_ensemble	magin_diff_538	magin_abs_diff_538	margin_diff_bias_corrected_538	in_CI_538	CI_width_538	margin_diff_plus	margin_abs_diff_plus	margin_diff_bias_corrected_plus	in_CI_plus	CI_width_plus	margin_diff_iabvek	margin_abs_diff_iabvek	margin_diff_bias_corrected_iabvek	in_CI_iabvek	CI_width_iabvek	margin_diff_cory	margin_abs_diff_cory	margin_bias_corrected_cory	in_CI_cory	CI_width_cory	margin_diff_ensemble	margin_abs_diff_ensemble	margin_bias_corrected_ensemble	in_CI_ensemble	CI_width_ensemble

2	IA	-21.0	-12.7	-4.5	-19.4	-12.5	-5.6	-20.2	-11.7	-3.4	-28.7	-20.5	-12.3	-20.0	-11.8	-3.5	10%	10%	1%	1%	3%	0%	4%	3%	3%	R	-12.2	0.0105	0.0105	0.0001	0.0001	0.0009	0.0000	0.0016	0.0009	0.0012	0.1082	0.1082	0.0111	0.0101	0.0305	0.0038	0.0408	0.0305	0.0351	-0.5	0.5	1.8	TRUE	16.5	-0.3	0.3	2.9	TRUE	13.7	0.5	0.5	2.4	TRUE	16.9	-8.3	8.3	-3.3	FALSE	16.3	0.4	0.4	2.6	TRUE	16.5
3	FL	-17.4	-9.8	-2.3	-15.4	-9.9	-4.3	-19.6	-11.3	-3.0	-21.0	-13.3	-5.7	-18.8	-11.5	-4.4	10%	2%	1%	3%	2%	2%	4%	5%	2%	R	-16.4	0.0105	0.0003	0.0002	0.0009	0.0004	0.0003	0.0016	0.0025	0.0004	0.1082	0.0177	0.0130	0.0305	0.0202	0.0181	0.0408	0.0513	0.0212	6.6	6.6	9.0	TRUE	15.2	6.5	6.5	9.8	FALSE	11.1	5.1	5.1	7.1	TRUE	16.5	3.1	3.1	8.1	TRUE	15.3	4.9	4.9	7.1	TRUE	14.4
4	OH	-13.4	-6.3	0.8	-15.1	-9.0	-2.9	-18.6	-8.3	1.9	-18.0	-9.6	-1.4	-13.0	-6.3	0.5	26%	26%	3%	9%	8%	7%	15%	13%	12%	R	-6.6	0.0698	0.0698	0.0009	0.0081	0.0064	0.0048	0.0225	0.0169	0.0134	0.3067	0.3067	0.0307	0.0943	0.0834	0.0715	0.1625	0.1393	0.1230	0.3	0.3	2.7	TRUE	14.2	-2.4	2.4	0.9	TRUE	12.2	-1.7	1.7	0.2	TRUE	20.5	-3.0	3.0	2.0	TRUE	16.7	0.3	0.3	2.6	TRUE	13.5
5	NC	-11.7	-4.8	2.2	-11.3	-5.3	0.8	-14.7	-5.5	3.5	-16.6	-8.5	-0.5	-11.1	-4.8	1.4	26%	26%	13%	15%	10%	9%	22%	18%	16%	R	-3.5	0.0698	0.0698	0.0176	0.0225	0.0100	0.0077	0.0484	0.0324	0.0261	0.3067	0.3067	0.1422	0.1625	0.1054	0.0918	0.2485	0.1985	0.1764	-1.3	1.3	1.1	TRUE	13.9	-1.8	1.8	1.5	TRUE	12.1	-2.0	2.0	-0.1	TRUE	18.2	-5.0	5.0	0.0	TRUE	16.0	-1.3	1.3	0.9	TRUE	12.6
6	WI	-11.9	-4.8	2.2	-12.0	-5.5	1.0	-12.3	-4.7	2.8	-18.1	-10.4	-2.8	-11.5	-4.7	2.0	26%	26%	14%	14%	12%	4%	21%	19%	18%	R	-1	0.0698	0.0698	0.0197	0.0196	0.0144	0.0020	0.0441	0.0361	0.0337	0.3067	0.3067	0.1511	0.1508	0.1278	0.0455	0.2357	0.2107	0.2028	-3.8	3.8	-1.4	TRUE	14.1	-4.5	4.5	-1.2	TRUE	13.0	-3.7	3.7	-1.8	TRUE	15.1	-9.4	9.4	-4.4	FALSE	15.3	-3.7	3.7	-1.5	TRUE	13.6
7	GA	-7.9	-1.2	5.5	-9.1	-0.7	7.7	-9.1	0.6	10.3	-10.3	-2.7	4.9	-9.3	-0.9	7.6	26%	50%	45%	35%	33%	32%	53%	37%	44%	D	0.9	0.5415	0.2500	0.3023	0.4225	0.4489	0.4623	0.2209	0.3969	0.3124	1.3312	0.6931	0.7981	1.0498	1.1087	1.1391	0.6349	0.9943	0.8186	-2.1	2.1	0.3	TRUE	13.4	-1.6	1.6	1.6	TRUE	16.9	-0.3	0.3	1.6	TRUE	19.4	-3.6	3.6	1.4	TRUE	15.2	-1.8	1.8	0.4	TRUE	17.0
8	PA	-8.0	-0.9	6.2	-10.2	-2.1	6.1	-10.0	0.2	10.3	-10.8	-2.8	5.2	-9.9	-1.6	6.7	26%	26%	37%	40%	33%	32%	51%	43%	40%	D	4.6	0.5415	0.5415	0.3981	0.3600	0.4489	0.4568	0.2401	0.3249	0.3601	1.3312	1.3312	0.9969	0.9163	1.1087	1.1266	0.6733	0.8440	0.9165	-5.5	5.5	-3.1	TRUE	14.2	-6.7	6.7	-3.4	TRUE	16.3	-4.4	4.4	-2.5	TRUE	20.4	-7.4	7.4	-2.3	TRUE	16.0	-6.2	6.2	-4.0	TRUE	16.5
9	NV	-8.1	-0.2	7.6	-10.8	-1.0	8.9	-9.8	-2.1	5.4	-9.4	-1.7	5.8	-11.5	-1.5	8.5	74%	74%	45%	26%	25%	39%	36%	49%	42%	D	0.9	0.0698	0.0676	0.3064	0.5476	0.5625	0.3769	0.4096	0.2601	0.3324	0.3067	0.3011	0.8065	1.3471	1.3863	0.9518	1.0217	0.7133	0.8593	-1.1	1.1	1.3	TRUE	15.7	-1.9	1.9	1.4	TRUE	19.7	-3.0	3.0	-1.1	TRUE	15.2	-2.6	2.6	2.4	TRUE	15.2	-2.4	2.4	-0.2	TRUE	20.0
10	AZ	-4.8	2.2	9.2	-7.3	0.1	7.4	-10.1	-0.4	9.3	-7.4	0.4	7.9	-6.3	1.2	8.6	74%	74%	51%	50%	55%	53%	48%	66%	58%	D	4.9	0.0698	0.0698	0.2426	0.2500	0.2025	0.2182	0.2704	0.1156	0.1746	0.3067	0.3067	0.6784	0.6931	0.5978	0.6295	0.7340	0.4155	0.5409	-2.7	2.7	-0.3	TRUE	14.0	-4.8	4.8	-1.6	TRUE	14.7	-5.3	5.3	-3.4	TRUE	19.4	-4.5	4.5	0.5	TRUE	15.4	-3.7	3.7	-1.5	TRUE	14.9
11	NH	-4.5	3.6	11.5	-7.8	2.0	11.6	-2.5	5.9	14.3	-5.3	2.7	10.6	-5.7	4.1	13.7	74%	74%	61%	67%	63%	68%	81%	72%	71%	D	9.2	0.0698	0.0698	0.1559	0.1089	0.1369	0.1044	0.0361	0.0784	0.0859	0.3067	0.3067	0.5023	0.4005	0.4620	0.3903	0.2107	0.3285	0.3470	-5.6	5.6	-3.2	TRUE	16.0	-7.2	7.2	-4.0	TRUE	19.3	-3.3	3.3	-1.4	TRUE	16.8	-6.5	6.5	-1.5	TRUE	15.8	-5.1	5.1	-2.9	TRUE	19.4
12	CO	0.1	8.0	15.8	-1.1	7.3	15.8	-1.0	9.4	19.6	2.0	9.7	17.4	0.1	9.2	18.3	90%	90%	87%	85%	87%	94%	88%	91%	90%	D	14.6	0.0105	0.0105	0.0175	0.0225	0.0169	0.0034	0.0144	0.0081	0.0093	0.1082	0.1082	0.1418	0.1625	0.1393	0.0598	0.1278	0.0943	0.1013	-6.6	6.6	-4.2	TRUE	15.7	-7.3	7.3	-4.0	TRUE	16.9	-5.2	5.2	-3.3	TRUE	20.6	-4.9	4.9	0.2	TRUE	15.4	-5.4	5.4	-3.2	TRUE	18.1
13	WA	0.7	8.7	16.7	-1.5	7.7	17.0	5.0	15.3	25.6	-1.1	6.6	14.2	1.9	12.2	22.5	90%	98%	86%	86%	84%	87%	97%	92%	93%	D	14.8	0.0105	0.0003	0.0196	0.0196	0.0256	0.0174	0.0009	0.0064	0.0045	0.1082	0.0177	0.1509	0.1508	0.1744	0.1417	0.0305	0.0834	0.0697	-6.1	6.1	-3.7	TRUE	16.1	-7.1	7.1	-3.8	TRUE	18.5	0.5	0.5	2.4	TRUE	20.7	-8.2	8.2	-3.2	FALSE	15.3	-2.6	2.6	-0.3	TRUE	20.6
14
15																												0.1286	0.1025	0.1234	0.1485	0.1562	0.1379	0.1092	0.1066	0.1128	0.4113	0.3426	0.3686	0.4307	0.4454	0.3891	0.3468	0.3420	0.3510	-2.4	3.5	2.7	100%	14.9	-3.3	4.3	3.0	92%	15.4	-1.9	2.9	2.3	100%	18.3	-5.0	5.5	2.4	75%	15.7	-2.2	3.2	2.3	100%	16.4