| D | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Post Title | Final Score (1000+ karma) | Final Score (all) | Final Score (AF users) | Final Votes (1000+ karma) | Final Votes (All) | Final Votes (AF users) | Preliminary Score (1000+ karma) | Preliminary Score (all) | Preliminary Score (AF users) | Preliminary Votes (1000+ karma) | Preliminary Votes (All) | Preliminary Votes (AF users) | ||||||||||
2 | Draft report on AI timelines | 78.1 | 106.1 | 81.2 | [9,9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1,-1,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,3.2,1,1,0,0,-4] | 29 | 37 | 59 | [9,9,9,4,1,1,0,-4] | [9,9,9,9,4,1,1,0,-1,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,1,0,0,-4] | ||||||||||
3 | An overview of 11 proposals for building safe advanced AI | 74.9 | 108.5 | 68.3 | [9,9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1,-1,-3.4] | [9,9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,-1] | 44 | 54 | 52 | [9,9,9,9,4,1,1,1,1,1,-1] | [9,9,9,9,9,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,-1] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,-1] | ||||||||||
4 | When Money Is Abundant, Knowledge Is The Real Wealth | 71.9 | 112.1 | 28.3 | [9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,-0.8,-1,-4] | [9,7.4,4,4,4,1,1,1,0.9,-4] | 44 | 58 | 28 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
5 | microCOVID.org: A tool to estimate COVID risk from common activities | 71.8 | 147.8 | 54.6 | [9,9,9,9,8.2,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,9,8.2,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-4] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0.8] | 29 | 70 | 49 | [9,9,4,4,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
6 | Alignment By Default | 65.8 | 83 | 49.2 | [9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-0.8,-1] | [9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1] | 36 | 36 | 48 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
7 | The Solomonoff Prior is Malign | 64.8 | 83.4 | 64.2 | [9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-4] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-3.4,-4,-4] | [9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,0,-4] | 33 | 33 | 58 | [9,9,4,4,4,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,4,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
8 | Seeing the Smoke | 63.2 | 85.2 | 20.6 | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8] | [9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,-1,-9] | [9,4,3.8,1,1,1,0.8] | 32 | 54 | 14 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
9 | Pain is not the unit of Effort | 63 | 102.8 | 31 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,-1] | 45 | 69 | 26 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
10 | The ground of optimization | 55.7 | 73.9 | 24.7 | [9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-9,-9] | [9,9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-0.8,-1,-4,-9,-9] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,0.9,0.8,-1,-9,-9] | 51 | 55 | 29 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,-9,-9] | ||||||||||
11 | Simulacra Levels and their Interactions | 52.6 | 87.6 | 37 | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-1] | [9,9,9,4,3.8,3.2,0,0,0,-1] | 25 | 39 | 30 | [9,4,4,4,4,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,1,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,0,0] | ||||||||||
12 | What Money Cannot Buy | 51.7 | 76.3 | 26.1 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1,-3.4] | [4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0] | 37 | 45 | 25 | [4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
13 | AGI safety from first principles: Introduction | 50.9 | 64.9 | 43.3 | [9,9,9,7.4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0] | [9,9,9,9,7.4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,0,-1] | [9,9,9,7.4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0] | 44 | 49 | 41 | [9,9,9,9,4,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,9,1,1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
14 | The Pointers Problem: Human Values Are A Function Of Humans' Latent Variables | 50.8 | 61.4 | 63.8 | [9,9,9,9,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0,0,0] | [9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-3.4] | [9,9,9,9,9,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0] | 13 | 22 | 50 | [9,4,0] | [9,9,4,0] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
15 | Coordination as a Scarce Resource | 50.7 | 75.9 | 18.1 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,0.9] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,-0.8,-1] | [9,4,3.2,1,0.9] | 22 | 22 | 15 | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
16 | Inaccessible information | 47.1 | 47.3 | 44.2 | [9,9,9,9,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [9,9,9,9,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-0.8,-1] | [9,9,9,9,4,3.2,1,1,0,-1] | 18 | 18 | 37 | [9,9] | [9,9] | [9,9,9,9,1,0] | ||||||||||
17 | Cortés, Pizarro, and Afonso as Precedents for Takeover | 45.9 | 64.5 | 37 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [9,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1] | 22 | 26 | 31 | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,-1] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
18 | My computational framework for the brain | 45.4 | 51 | 32.8 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,0.8,0,0] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,-3.4] | [9,9,4,4,4,1,1,0.8,0] | 27 | 27 | 27 | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
19 | Introduction to Cartesian Frames | 43.9 | 81.9 | 43.9 | [9,9,8.5,7.4,4,4,1,1,0,0,0] | [9,9,9,9,9,8.5,7.4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0] | [9,9,8.5,7.4,4,4,1,1,0] | 13 | 23 | 36 | [4,4,4,1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1] | [9,9,9,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
20 | Inner Alignment: Explain like I'm 12 Edition | 43.1 | 60.1 | 41.1 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,-1] | 33 | 35 | 34 | [9,9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
21 | Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds | 42.5 | 49.1 | 32.6 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1,-3.4] | [9,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0.8,0] | 15 | 16 | 27 | [4,4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
22 | Anti-Aging: State of the Art | 41.4 | 54.4 | 11.8 | [9,9,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1] | [9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1] | [9,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1] | 15 | 22 | 1 | [4,4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [1,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
23 | The Road to Mazedom | 41.4 | 38.6 | 16.2 | [9,8.2,7.4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,0,-1] | [9,8.2,7.4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,0,0,-0.8,-1,-4] | [7.4,4,3.8,1,0] | 23 | 24 | 10 | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,-1] | [4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
24 | Interfaces as a Scarce Resource | 41.3 | 66.9 | 20.7 | [9,9,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,-3.4] | [9,4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8] | 26 | 35 | 25 | [9,9,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [9,9,9,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [9,9,4,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
25 | Most Prisoner's Dilemmas are Stag Hunts; Most Stag Hunts are Schelling Problems | 40.9 | 79.9 | 11.7 | [8.2,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1,-1,-4] | [9,9,9,8.2,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1,-1,-1,-4] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,-1,-4] | 26 | 36 | 16 | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
26 | An Orthodox Case Against Utility Functions | 40.2 | 47.8 | 38.3 | [9,9,8.5,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-4] | [9,9,8.5,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-3.4,-4] | [9,9,8.5,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1,-4] | 18 | 19 | 18 | [9,4,4,1,0] | [9,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,0,-1,-4] | ||||||||||
27 | Is Success the Enemy of Freedom? (Full) | 37.6 | 63.6 | 16.6 | [9,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,-1] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,-1,-1,-1] | [4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1] | 21 | 26 | 10 | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
28 | CFAR Participant Handbook now available to all | 35.9 | 40.9 | 22.7 | [9,9,8.2,4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,9,8.2,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1] | [9,9,4,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | 33 | 35 | 23 | [9,9,9,4,1,1] | [9,9,9,4,4,1,1,1,-1,-1,-1] | [9,9,4,1,1,0,0,-1] | ||||||||||
29 | Introduction To The Infra-Bayesianism Sequence | 35.3 | 48.3 | 27.7 | [9,9,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [9,9,9,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,0] | [9,9,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | 12 | 12 | 22 | [9,1,1,1] | [9,1,1,1] | [9,9,1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
30 | Radical Probabilism | 34.3 | 35.3 | 26.7 | [9,8.5,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,0,0] | [9,8.5,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0,0] | [9,8.5,4,3.2,1,1,0] | 14 | 14 | 18 | [4,4,4,1,1] | [4,4,4,1,1] | [9,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
31 | Reality-Revealing and Reality-Masking Puzzles | 32.9 | 39.9 | 25 | [9,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1] | [4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1] | 18 | 21 | 26 | [4,4,4,4,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,4,1,1,-1] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
32 | Why haven't we celebrated any major achievements lately? | 32.5 | 45.1 | 10.6 | [9,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-3.4,-4] | [4,3.8,1,1,0.8,0] | 5 | 9 | 10 | [4,1] | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
33 | Some AI research areas and their relevance to existential safety | 32.2 | 37.8 | 20 | [8.2,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [8.2,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-3.4] | [4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,0,-1,-1] | 18 | 18 | 16 | [9,4,4,1,0] | [9,4,4,1,0] | [4,4,4,4,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
34 | Search versus design | 30.6 | 43.6 | 29.7 | [8.5,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0] | [9,8.5,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0] | [8.5,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1] | 17 | 21 | 23 | [4,4,4,4,1,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,1,1] | ||||||||||
35 | "Can you keep this confidential? How do you know?" | 29.7 | 32 | 9.7 | [4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-7.7] | [4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | 13 | 13 | 8 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
36 | Discontinuous progress in history: an update | 29.6 | 43.2 | 20 | [4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0,-3.4] | [4,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,0] | 11 | 24 | 13 | [4,4,1,1,1,0] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
37 | The Treacherous Path to Rationality | 28.8 | 29.4 | 16.8 | [9,9,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-1] | [9,9,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-3.4] | [9,4,3.8,1,0,0,-1] | 23 | 27 | 14 | [9,9,4,1,1,0,-1] | [9,9,4,4,1,1,0,-1] | [9,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
38 | How uniform is the neocortex? | 28.7 | 30.3 | 21.8 | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-3.4] | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.8,0] | 12 | 12 | 6 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
39 | To listen well, get curious | 28.7 | 46.3 | 16.8 | [9,9,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [9,9,9,9,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-3.4,-4] | [9,4,1,1,1,0.8,0,0] | 19 | 38 | 7 | [9,4,1,1,1,1,1,1] | [9,9,9,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
40 | Motive Ambiguity | 28.6 | 27.6 | 14 | [9,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-4,-4] | [4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,0] | 28 | 32 | 15 | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,-1] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
41 | The Felt Sense: What, Why and How | 28.3 | 36.5 | 13.7 | [4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-0.8,-1,-1] | [4,4,4,0.9,0.8,0] | 21 | 26 | 5 | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,1] | ||||||||||
42 | Choosing the Zero Point | 28.1 | 29.9 | 17.2 | [9,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-9] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-4,-9] | [4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0,0] | 16 | 16 | 13 | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
43 | The First Sample Gives the Most Information | 27.9 | 25.5 | 16 | [9,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [9,4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [4,4,3.8,3.2,1,1,0,-1] | 14 | 14 | 14 | [4,4,4,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
44 | Nuclear war is unlikely to cause human extinction | 27.3 | 22.9 | 6.1 | [8.2,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1] | [8.2,4,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1,-3.4,-9] | [3.2,1,1,1,0.9,-1] | 11 | 10 | 12 | [9,1,1] | [9,1,1,-1] | [9,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
45 | Why Neural Networks Generalise, and Why They Are (Kind of) Bayesian | 27.1 | 37.1 | 27.1 | [9,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0,0] | [9,9,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,0.9,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,0.9] | 15 | 15 | 20 | [9,4,1,1] | [9,4,1,1] | [9,4,4,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
46 | Can crimes be discussed literally? | 25.6 | 30.6 | 8 | [9,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,-1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-4] | [3.8,3.2,1,1,-1] | 14 | 22 | 6 | [4,4,4,1,1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,-1] | [4,1,1] | ||||||||||
47 | Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2 | 25.4 | 15 | 12.8 | [9,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,0,0,-1] | [9,4,4,3.8,3.6,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-3.4,-9] | [9,3.8,1,0,0,-1] | 19 | 21 | 13 | [9,4,4,1,1] | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1] | [9,4,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
48 | Swiss Political System: More than You ever Wanted to Know (I.) | 23.6 | 25.6 | 10.7 | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.9,0.8,0] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.9,0.8,0] | [4,4,1,0.9,0.8,0] | 9 | 9 | 6 | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
49 | Studies On Slack | 23.1 | 42.7 | 16.2 | [7.4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [9,7.4,4,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [7.4,4,3.8,1,0] | 15 | 27 | 13 | [4,4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
50 | The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values | 22.7 | 18.3 | 12.8 | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0] | [9,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0] | 3 | 3 | 7 | [1,1,1] | [1,1,1] | [4,1,1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
51 | Transportation as a Constraint | 22.5 | 36.7 | 6.6 | [4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,-1] | [9,4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,-0.8,-1] | [3.8,1,1,1,0.8,-1] | 13 | 13 | 7 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
52 | The date of AI Takeover is not the day the AI takes over | 22.3 | 46.3 | 18.7 | [4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1] | 9 | 14 | 9 | [4,4,1,1,-1] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,-1] | [4,4,1,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
53 | A non-mystical explanation of "no-self" (three characteristics series) | 21.8 | 26.8 | 12.8 | [9,4,4,4,0.8,0,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,-1] | [4,4,4,0.8,0] | 13 | 14 | 12 | [9,4,0] | [9,4,1,0] | [4,4,4,0] | ||||||||||
54 | Covid-19: My Current Model | 21.8 | 7.1 | 11.8 | [9,4,4,3.8,1,1,0,0,0,-1] | [9,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-1,-7.7,-9] | [4,4,3.8,1,0,0,-1] | 5 | 7 | 9 | [4,1] | [4,1,1,1] | [4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
55 | Possible takeaways from the coronavirus pandemic for slow AI takeoff | 18.7 | 19.3 | 6.1 | [4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0.9] | [4,4,4,3.6,3.2,1,1,1,0.9,0,-3.4] | [3.2,1,1,0.9,0] | 1 | 1 | 1 | [1,0] | [1,0,0] | [1,0] | ||||||||||
56 | Elephant seal | 18.7 | 27.9 | 0.8 | [9,9,3.8,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-4] | [9,9,9,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,0,-0.8,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-4,-4,-9] | [3.8,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-4] | 13 | 13 | 11 | [9,4] | [9,4,0] | [9,4,1,1,1,1,0,-1,-1,-4] | ||||||||||
57 | The Bayesian Tyrant | 18.6 | 24.2 | 8.6 | [4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0] | [4,4,4,4,3.8,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-3.4] | [3.8,1,1,1,1,0.8] | 10 | 10 | 7 | [4,4,1,1] | [4,4,1,1] | [4,1,1,1] | ||||||||||
58 | Classifying games like the Prisoner's Dilemma | 18.4 | 23.6 | 4.8 | [9,4,3.6,1,0.8,0,0,0] | [9,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,-0.8] | [4,0.8,0,0] | 14 | 19 | 8 | [9,4,1,0] | [9,4,4,1,1,0] | [4,4,0,0] | ||||||||||
59 | Clarifying inner alignment terminology | 18.2 | 16.8 | 19.2 | [9,4,3.2,1,1,0,0,0,0] | [9,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,-3.4] | [9,4,3.2,1,1,1,0,0] | 17 | 19 | 19 | [9,4,4] | [9,4,4,1,1] | [9,4,4,1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
60 | Have epistemic conditions always been this bad? | 18.2 | 18.8 | 10.2 | [4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-4] | [4,4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-3.4,-4] | [4,4,3.2,1,1,1,0,-4] | 7 | 11 | 11 | [4,1,1,1] | [4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
61 | Inner Alignment in Salt-Starved Rats | 17.7 | 19.3 | 11.8 | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-3.4] | [4,4,1,1,1,0.8,0] | 9 | 10 | 10 | [4,4,1] | [4,4,1,1] | [4,4,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
62 | Persuasion Tools: AI takeover without AGI or agency? | 17.7 | 25.7 | 12.8 | [4,4,4,4,0.9,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,4,4,4,4,4,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1] | [4,4,4,0.8,0,0] | 1 | 5 | 4 | [1] | [4,1] | [4,0,0] | ||||||||||
63 | Simulacra and Subjectivity | 17.3 | 10.9 | 5.7 | [4,4,4,3.6,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1] | [4,4,4,3.6,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1,-3.4,-4] | [4,0.9,0.8,0] | 6 | 6 | 5 | [4,1,1] | [4,1,1] | [4,1,0] | ||||||||||
64 | What happens if you drink acetone? | 16.7 | 7.9 | 13.7 | [9,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,0,-0.8,-1,-1,-1,-1,-9] | [9,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0] | 13 | 12 | 13 | [9,1,1,1,1,1,-1] | [9,1,1,1,1,1,0,-1,-1] | [9,1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
65 | Wireless is a trap | 16.7 | 23.3 | 4.7 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,0,0,-3.4] | [1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | 5 | 5 | 4 | [1,1,1,1,1,0] | [1,1,1,1,1,0] | [1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
66 | Subspace optima | 15.7 | 24.7 | 3.8 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-1] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1] | [1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1] | 5 | 5 | 3 | [4,1,0] | [4,1,0] | [1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
67 | Create a Full Alternative Stack | 15.6 | 8.9 | 8 | [4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,0] | [4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,0,-4,-4,-7.7] | [3.8,3.2,1,0] | 5 | 5 | 8 | [4,1] | [4,1] | [4,4,0] | ||||||||||
68 | Babble challenge: 50 ways of sending something to the moon | 15.6 | 11.2 | 1.7 | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.9,0.8,0,-1,-1,-1,-4] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1,-3.4,-4] | [4,1,1,0.9,0.8,-1,-1,-4] | 18 | 17 | 5 | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0,-1,-1] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,0,0,-1,-1,-1] | [4,1,1,1,-1,-1] | ||||||||||
69 | My slack budget: 3 surprise problems per week | 15 | 12.6 | 0 | [9,4,1,1,0,0,0,0] | [9,4,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [0,0,0] | 5 | 4 | 0 | [4,1] | [4,1,-1] | [0,0] | ||||||||||
70 | A tale from Communist China | 14.9 | 29.9 | 3.9 | [4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1] | 10 | 16 | 2 | [4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,-1] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,-1] | [1,1,1,-1] | ||||||||||
71 | "No evidence" as a Valley of Bad Rationality | 14.8 | 23.8 | 13.8 | [9,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0] | [9,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,0] | [9,1,1,1,1,0.8,0] | 6 | 7 | 11 | [4,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,1,0] | [9,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
72 | Protecting Large Projects Against Mazedom | 13.6 | 21.8 | 11 | [4,3.8,3.6,3.2,0,-1] | [4,4,4,4,3.8,3.6,3.2,1,1,0,-0.8,-1,-1,-4] | [4,3.8,3.2,0] | 4 | 4 | 4 | [4] | [4] | [4,0] | ||||||||||
73 | Extrapolating GPT-N performance | 13.1 | 22.4 | 13.1 | [4,4,3.2,1,0.9,0,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,4,3.2,1,0.9,0,0,0,-7.7] | [4,4,3.2,1,0.9,0] | 14 | 14 | 13 | [9,4,1,0] | [9,4,1,0] | [4,4,4,1,0] | ||||||||||
74 | Five Ways To Prioritize Better | 13 | 22 | 14 | [9,4,1,0,0,0,0,-1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,0,0,0,0,-1] | [9,4,1,0,0] | 14 | 19 | 14 | [9,4,1,0] | [9,4,4,1,1,0] | [9,4,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
75 | Give it a google | 12.9 | 13.9 | 0.9 | [9,4,1,0.9,0,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,4,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [1,0.9,0,-1] | 6 | 6 | 2 | [4,1,1] | [4,1,1] | [1,1,0] | ||||||||||
76 | Negative Feedback and Simulacra | 12.8 | 16 | 2.9 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-0.9,-1] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,-0.8,-0.9,-1,-1] | [1,1,1,1,0.8,-0.9,-1] | 9 | 9 | 4 | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [1,1,1,1,1,-1] | ||||||||||
77 | Crisis and opportunity during coronavirus | 12.7 | 12.7 | 2.8 | [9,3.8,0.9,0,0,-1] | [9,3.8,0.9,0,0,-1] | [3.8,0,0,-1] | 4 | 4 | 4 | [4] | [4] | [4,0] | ||||||||||
78 | Coronavirus: Justified Practical Advice Thread | 12.7 | 29.7 | 2.8 | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [9,4,4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1,-1] | [1,1,1,1,0.8,0,-1,-1] | 7 | 24 | 2 | [4,1,1,1] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,1] | [1,1,1,0,-1] | ||||||||||
79 | A Significant Portion of COVID-19 Transmission Is Presymptomatic | 12.5 | 7.1 | 10.6 | [4,3.8,1,1,1,0.9,0.8] | [4,4,3.8,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,-1,-1,-3.4,-4] | [4,3.8,1,1,0.8] | 4 | 4 | 6 | [4] | [4] | [4,1,1] | ||||||||||
80 | How To Fermi Model | 11.5 | 12.7 | 2.9 | [4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-0.8,-1] | [1,1,1,0.9,0,-1] | 11 | 12 | 4 | [4,4,1,1,1] | [4,4,1,1,1,1] | [1,1,1,1,0] | ||||||||||
81 | Why Artists Study Anatomy | 10.9 | 18.5 | 7.9 | [4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,-1,-3.4] | [4,1,1,1,0.9] | 3 | 5 | 3 | [1,1,1,0] | [1,1,1,1,1,0] | [1,1,1] | ||||||||||
82 | Market-shaping approaches to accelerate COVID-19 response: a role for option-based guarantees? | 10.8 | 8.4 | 1.8 | [9,1,0.8,0,0,0,0] | [9,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,0,-3.4] | [1,0.8,0,0] | 1 | 1 | 1 | [1] | [1] | [1,0,0] | ||||||||||
83 | What counts as defection? | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.8 | [4,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,0] | [4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,0,0,-3.4] | [1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0] | 3 | 3 | 3 | [1,1,1] | [1,1,1] | [1,1,1,0,0,0] | ||||||||||
84 | Authorities and Amateurs | 10.7 | 11.3 | 0.8 | [4,4,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-3.4,-9] | [0.8,0,0] | 9 | 22 | 1 | [4,4,1] | [9,4,4,4,1] | [1,0,0] | ||||||||||
85 | Range and Forecasting Accuracy | 9.9 | 9.9 | -1 | [9,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1] | [9,1,1,0.9,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [0,0,-1] | 10 | 11 | 0 | [9,1,0] | [9,1,1,0] | [0,0] | ||||||||||
86 | Attainable Utility Preservation: Empirical Results | 9.8 | 9.4 | 10.8 | [4,4,1,0.8,0,0,0,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,0,-3.4] | [4,4,1,1,0.8,0,0] | 1 | 6 | [1] | [4,1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||||
87 | Seemingly Popular Covid-19 Model is Obvious Nonsense | 9.7 | 6.3 | 0.8 | [4,4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1,-1] | [4,4,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-3.4] | [1,0.8,0,0,-1] | 6 | 6 | 2 | [4,1,1] | [4,1,1] | [1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
88 | Training Regime Day 8: Noticing | 9.4 | 1 | 5.8 | [4,3.6,1,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,3.6,1,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-3.4,-4] | [4,1,0.8,0,0] | 5 | 4 | 1 | [4,1,0] | [4,1,0,-1] | [1,0,0] | ||||||||||
89 | Rereading Atlas Shrugged | 9.2 | 11.2 | 2.2 | [4,3.2,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1] | [4,4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,-1,-4,-4] | [3.2,0,-1] | 3 | 4 | 1 | [1,1,1,0,0] | [4,1,1,1,1,0,0,-4] | [1,0] | ||||||||||
90 | Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.2 | [4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [4,3.2,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1,-1,-1,-1] | [3.2,0,0,-1] | 5 | 4 | -1 | [4,1] | [4,1,-1] | [0,0,-1] | ||||||||||
91 | The 300-year journey to the covid vaccine | 9 | 17 | 3 | [4,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,-1] | [1,1,1,0,0,0] | 4 | 9 | 3 | [1,1,1,1] | [4,1,1,1,1,1] | [1,1,1,0,0] | ||||||||||
92 | Conflict vs. mistake in non-zero-sum games | 8.7 | 15.9 | 4.8 | [4,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,4,4,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,0,-0.8] | [4,0.8,0,0] | 6 | 7 | 4 | [4,1,1,0,0] | [4,1,1,1,0,0] | [4,0,0] | ||||||||||
93 | Shuttling between science and invention | 8.6 | 16.6 | 8.6 | [4,3.8,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,4,4,3.8,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,3.8,0.8,0] | 4 | 4 | 8 | [4] | [4] | [4,4,0] | ||||||||||
94 | Reveal Culture | 8.4 | 14.4 | -2.2 | [4,3.6,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,-4] | [4,4,4,3.6,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,-4,-4] | [1,0.8,0,0,-4] | 11 | 15 | 0 | [9,1,1,0] | [9,4,1,1,0] | [0,0] | ||||||||||
95 | Why indoor lighting is hard to get right and how to fix it | 8.1 | 20.3 | 5.2 | [3.2,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1] | [4,4,3.2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-0.8,-1] | [3.2,1,1,1,0,0,-1] | 8 | 15 | 5 | [4,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0] | [4,1,1,0,0,-1] | ||||||||||
96 | Exercises in Comprehensive Information Gathering | 7.7 | 8.7 | 2.7 | [4,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0] | [4,1,1,1,1,0.9,0.8,0,0,-1] | [1,0.9,0.8,0] | 2 | 2 | 2 | [1,1] | [1,1] | [1,1,0] | ||||||||||
97 | The Oil Crisis of 1973 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 1.8 | [4,1,1,0.8,0,0,0] | [4,4,1,1,1,1,0.8,0,0,0,-1,-3.4] | [1,0.8,0,0] | 1 | 0 | 0 | [1,0] | [1,0,-1] | [0,0] | ||||||||||
98 | A Personal (Interim) COVID-19 Postmortem | 6.3 | 7.3 | 1.4 | [4,3.2,1,1,0.9,0,0,-3.8] | [4,3.2,1,1,1,1,0.9,0,0,-1,-3.8] | [3.2,1,1,0,-3.8] | 3 | 4 | -1 | [1,1,1] | [1,1,1,1] | [1,1,1,0,-4] | ||||||||||
99 | What are good rationality exercises? | 6 | 7 | 2 | [4,4,0,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [4,4,1,0,0,0,0,-1,-1] | [4,0,0,-1,-1] | 4 | 4 | 3 | [4] | [4] | [4,0,-1] | ||||||||||
100 | How to teach things well | 6 | 22 | 5 | [4,1,1,0,0,0,0] | [9,4,4,4,1,1,0,0,0,0,-1] | [4,1,0,0] | 4 | 8 | 5 | [4] | [4,4] | [4,1,0,0] |