| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) distributions - Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) | Average | DRC | Guinea | Uganda | Nigeria (PMI states) | Nigeria (Global Fund states) | South Sudan | Chad | Togo | ||||||||
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5 | Funding allocation | |||||||||||||||||
6 | ||||||||||||||||||
7 | Percentage of total costs covered by AMF | 46% | 52% | 57% | 51% | 51% | 46% | 52% | 49% | |||||||||
8 | Percentage of total costs covered by other philanthropic actors | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | |||||||||
9 | ||||||||||||||||||
10 | Number of people covered | |||||||||||||||||
11 | ||||||||||||||||||
12 | Donation to AMF (arbitrary size) | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | |||||||||
13 | Total spending by all contributors | $217,135 | $191,137 | $174,430 | $197,638 | $197,638 | $217,135 | $191,137 | $202,512 | |||||||||
14 | Cost per long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) | $5.03 | $5.51 | $4.50 | $4.65 | $5.35 | $5.35 | $5.51 | $4.50 | $4.86 | ||||||||
15 | Number of people covered with each net | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||||||
16 | Cost per person covered | $3.06 | $2.50 | $2.58 | $2.97 | $2.97 | $3.06 | $2.50 | $2.70 | |||||||||
17 | Total number of people covered | 70,933 | 76,501 | 67,481 | 66,468 | 66,468 | 70,933 | 76,501 | 75,035 | |||||||||
18 | ||||||||||||||||||
19 | Age distribution of net coverage | |||||||||||||||||
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21 | Percent of population under 5 years old (used for mortality effects and development effects) | 16% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 14% | |||||||||
22 | Percent of population ages 5-9 | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 17% | 14% | |||||||||
23 | Percent of population ages 10-14 | 13% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 12% | |||||||||
24 | Percent of population ages 5-14 (used for development effects only) | 27% | 28% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 30% | 26% | |||||||||
25 | ||||||||||||||||||
26 | Children under 5 covered | 11,027 | 12,969 | 11,635 | 10,372 | 10,372 | 11,587 | 15,547 | 10,560 | |||||||||
27 | Children 5-14 covered | 19,471 | 21,600 | 19,674 | 18,634 | 18,634 | 20,266 | 23,220 | 19,255 | |||||||||
28 | Equivalent coverage-years for an LLIN over a 36-month distribution | 1.74 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.11 | 2.11 | |||||||||
29 | ||||||||||||||||||
30 | Person-years of coverage for under 5s | 19,226 | 27,365 | 24,551 | 21,884 | 21,884 | 24,449 | 32,804 | 22,282 | |||||||||
31 | Person-years of coverage for ages 5-14 | 33,948 | 45,576 | 41,512 | 39,319 | 39,319 | 42,760 | 48,994 | 40,628 | |||||||||
32 | Person-years of coverage for under 15s | 53,174 | 72,941 | 66,062 | 61,203 | 61,203 | 67,209 | 81,798 | 62,910 | |||||||||
33 | ||||||||||||||||||
34 | Mortality reduction in children under 5 | |||||||||||||||||
35 | ||||||||||||||||||
36 | Relative risk reduction for mortality per protected 1-59 month-old child (summary effect from Pryce et al. 2018 meta-analysis) | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | |||||||||
37 | ||||||||||||||||||
38 | Adjustment for counterfactual mortality if AMF distributions ceased | |||||||||||||||||
39 | Baseline 1-59 month-old all-cause mortality before mass distribution of nets (per 1,000 child-years, GBD 2004) | 24.3 | 26.2 | 20.0 | 33.2 | 35.6 | 22.5 | 30.8 | 17.7 | |||||||||
40 | 1-59 month-old all-cause mortality (per 1,000 child-years, GBD 2019) | 7.7 | 14.6 | 7.3 | 16.7 | 17.7 | 14.2 | 18.4 | 8.3 | |||||||||
41 | Mortality today relative to pre-nets baseline | 32% | 56% | 37% | 51% | 50% | 63% | 60% | 47% | |||||||||
42 | Portion of mortality difference attributed to nets | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | |||||||||
43 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted per 1,000 children per year targeted with seasonal malaria chemoprevention | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | |||||||||
44 | Counterfactual mortality with no bednet distribution (per 1,000 child-years) | 11.9 | 17.5 | 10.5 | 19.8 | 21.6 | 15.9 | 20.7 | 10.1 | |||||||||
45 | ||||||||||||||||||
46 | Pre-existing net adjustment | |||||||||||||||||
47 | Adjustment for net coverage years lost due to residual nets from previous distributions | 97% | 97% | 97% | 98% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | |||||||||
48 | ||||||||||||||||||
49 | Other adjustments | |||||||||||||||||
50 | Net use adjustment | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | |||||||||
51 | Internal validity adjustment — Nets | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | |||||||||
52 | External validity adjustment — Nets | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | |||||||||
53 | Proportion of mortality attributed to malaria in areas AMF works vs. the contexts of trials in the Cochrane Pryce et al. 2018 meta-analysis | 180% | 124% | 153% | 74% | 72% | 85% | 26% | 86% | |||||||||
54 | Efficacy reduction due to insecticide resistance | 11% | 21% | 11% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 59% | 33% | |||||||||
55 | ||||||||||||||||||
56 | Deaths averted per 1,000 person-years of coverage for under 5s | 2.56 | 2.31 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 1.81 | 1.63 | 0.30 | 0.78 | |||||||||
57 | ||||||||||||||||||
58 | Total number of under-5 deaths averted | 49 | 63 | 47 | 38 | 40 | 40 | 10 | 17 | |||||||||
59 | ||||||||||||||||||
60 | Comparable valuation | |||||||||||||||||
61 | Value assigned to averting the death of an individual under 5 from malaria | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | |||||||||
62 | Total units of value from under-5 deaths averted (before accounting for leverage and funging) | 5,724 | 7,362 | 5,413 | 4,380 | 4,606 | 4,621 | 1,149 | 2,018 | |||||||||
63 | ||||||||||||||||||
64 | Mortality reduction in individuals 5+ years old | |||||||||||||||||
65 | ||||||||||||||||||
66 | Ratio of 5+ malaria deaths to under-5 malaria deaths | |||||||||||||||||
67 | Number of malaria deaths per year (GBD 2019) | 57,160 | 11,337 | 22,587 | 55,753 | 77,648 | 5,109 | 7,194 | 5,436 | |||||||||
68 | Number of under-5 malaria deaths per year (GBD 2019) | 44,078 | 8,181 | 17,386 | 30,015 | 44,919 | 4,010 | 4,526 | 1,880 | |||||||||
69 | Number of age 5+ malaria deaths per year | 13,082 | 3,155 | 5,201 | 25,738 | 32,728 | 1,099 | 2,668 | 3,556 | |||||||||
70 | Ratio of 5+ malaria deaths to under-5 malaria deaths | 30% | 39% | 30% | 86% | 73% | 27% | 59% | 189% | |||||||||
71 | Relative efficacy of LLINs for reducing mortality of individuals age 5+ | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 80% | |||||||||
72 | ||||||||||||||||||
73 | Total number of age 5+ deaths averted | 12 | 20 | 11 | 26 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 26 | |||||||||
74 | ||||||||||||||||||
75 | Comparable valuation | |||||||||||||||||
76 | Value assigned to averting the death of an individual 5 or older from malaria | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | |||||||||
77 | Total units of value from age 5+ deaths averted (before accounting for leverage and funging) | 856 | 1,430 | 816 | 1,892 | 1,690 | 638 | 341 | 1,922 | |||||||||
78 | ||||||||||||||||||
79 | Overall mortality reduction | |||||||||||||||||
80 | ||||||||||||||||||
81 | Total deaths averted | 61 | 83 | 58 | 64 | 63 | 48 | 15 | 44 | |||||||||
82 | ||||||||||||||||||
83 | Reduction in malaria prevalence (used for estimating income increases) | |||||||||||||||||
84 | ||||||||||||||||||
85 | Relative reduction in malaria prevalence | |||||||||||||||||
86 | Reduction in malaria incidence for children under 5 (from Pryce et al. 2018 meta-analysis) | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 45% | |||||||||
87 | Expected reduction in malaria prevalence in current day distributions | 32% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 32% | 15% | 24% | |||||||||
88 | ||||||||||||||||||
89 | Baseline malaria prevalence | |||||||||||||||||
90 | Malaria prevalence in AMF context (Age <5) (GBD 2019) | 28% | 34% | 39% | 28% | 20% | 18% | 12% | 30% | |||||||||
91 | Malaria prevalence in AMF context (Age 5-9) (GBD 2019) | 31% | 37% | 43% | 20% | 12% | 34% | |||||||||||
92 | Malaria prevalence in AMF context (Age 10-14) (GBD 2019) | 29% | 35% | 40% | 19% | 12% | 31% | |||||||||||
93 | Malaria prevalence in AMF context (Age 5-14) (GBD 2019) | 30% | 36% | 41% | 30% | 21% | 20% | 12% | 33% | |||||||||
94 | Expected increase in malaria prevalence in the absence of an LLIN distribution | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | |||||||||
95 | Counterfactual malaria prevalence in AMF context in absence of distribution (Age <5) | 34% | 41% | 46% | 34% | 23% | 22% | 14% | 37% | |||||||||
96 | Counterfactual malaria prevalence in AMF context in absence of distribution (Ages 5-14) | 36% | 43% | 50% | 35% | 25% | 24% | 14% | 39% | |||||||||
97 | ||||||||||||||||||
98 | Absolute reduction in malaria prevalence | |||||||||||||||||
99 | Percentage point reduction in the point-in-time probability of a covered child being infected with malaria (Age <5) | 11% | 11% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 9% | |||||||||
100 | Percentage point reduction in the point-in-time probability of a covered child being infected with malaria (Age 5-14) | 12% | 12% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 9% |