Italy General(Legislative) Election 2021 April Projection/Prediction/Forecast {GEUN/GEHSC}

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V
1	Nation : Italy of Europe			Error Cover Method -	EE2019*GE2018	EE2019*GE2018	GE2018	GE2018	EE2019*GE2018	None	(EE2019+GE2017+EE2014)/3	GE2018	GE2018	(GE2019+GE2017)/2	None		LN + FdI + FI + C!	PD + A+PE + IV + EV	M5S	LeU	OTH
2	-Vote Share Projection				League / Lega	Brothers of Italy	Five Star Movement	Democrats	Forward Italy / Froza Italia	Action + More Europe	Free & Equal	Italy Alive	Green Europe	Let's Change!	Others		Center-Right Coalition	Center-Left Coalition	Five Star Movement	Free & Equal	Others
3	Pollster	Polling Date	Sample Size	Sample Precent.	LEGA	FdI	M5S	PD	FI	A+PE	LeU	IV	EV	C!	ALT		CDX	CSX	M5S	LeU	OTH
4	Pollster	Polling Date	Sample Size	Sample Precent.	Far-Right	Right-wing	Big Tent	Center-Left	Center-Right	Lean-Left	Left-wing	Lean-Left	Left-wing	Center-Right	Mixed		Right-wing	Center-Left	Big Tent	Left-wing	Mixed
5	Poll+Error Projection	03/24~03/31	6,133	1.0000000000	29.32%	19.23%	17.80%	14.27%	5.41%	3.97%	2.92%	1.91%	1.30%	0.83%	3.04%		54.79%	21.45%	17.80%	2.92%	3.04%
6					0.2932556153	0.1922784255	0.1779625255	0.1426878458	0.0540819921	0.0397594879	0.0292005326	0.0191011113	0.0129815787	0.0082959074	0.0303949778	1.0000000000	0.5479119403	0.2145300237	0.1779625255	0.0292005326	0.0303949778	1.0000000000
7				"Last Month Difference"	"-0.83pp"	"-0.37pp"	"+2.13pp"	"-0.30pp"	"-0.90pp"	"-0.71pp"	"+0.74pp"	"-0.30pp"	"+0.10pp"	"+0.72pp"	"-0.28pp"		"-1.38pp"	"-1.21pp"	"+2.13pp"	"+0.74pp"	"-0.28pp"	"Last Month Difference" - Compared To Last Month (2021 March)
8				"Last Election Difference"	"+11.97pp"	"+14.88pp"	"-14.88pp"	"-4.49pp"	"-8.59pp"	"+1.41pp"	"-0.48pp"	"+1.91pp"	"+0.72pp"	"-0.47pp"	"-1.98pp"		"+17.79pp"	"-0.45pp"	"-14.88pp"	"-0.48pp"	"-1.98pp"	"Last Election Difference" - Compared To Last Election
9	After Error Cover				32.13%	21.07%	19.50%	15.63%	5.93%	4.36%	3.20%	2.09%	1.42%	0.91%	3.33%
10					0.3213256837	0.2106830809	0.1949968806	0.1563457517	0.0592586542	0.0435652174	0.0319955719	0.0209294463	0.0142241595	0.0090899815	0.0333043478	1.0957187754
11				"Error Cover"	1.3801747466	1.2011429288	1.1834364412	0.8274641407	0.8213010218	1.0000000000	0.9018359718	0.8274641407	0.8245889588	0.8247320529	1.0000000000
12	Poll Base Projection	03/24~03/31	6,133	1.0000000000	23.28%	17.54%	16.48%	18.89%	7.22%	4.36%	3.55%	2.53%	1.72%	1.10%	3.33%		49.14%	27.50%	16.48%	3.55%	3.33%
13					0.2328152174	0.1754021739	0.1647717391	0.1889456522	0.0721521739	0.0435652174	0.0354782609	0.0252934783	0.0172500000	0.0110217391	0.0333043478	1.0000000000	0.4913913043	0.2750543478	0.1647717391	0.0354782609	0.0333043478	1.0000000000
14	#The Sample Size Of Polls Which Didn't Mentioned About It Set As 500.
15	-Polling Average				League / Lega	Democrats	Brothers of Italy	Five Star Movement	Forward Italy / Froza Italia	Action + More Europe	Free & Equal	Italy Alive	Green Europe	Let's Change!	Others		Source
16	Pollster	Polling Date	Sample Size	Sample Precent.	LEGA	PD	FdI	M5S	FI	A+PE	LeU	IV	EV	C!	ALT
17	Pollster	Polling Date	Sample Size	Sample Precent.	Far-Right	Center-Left	Right-wing	Big Tent	Center-Right	Lean-Left	Left-wing	Lean-Left	Left-wing	Center-Right	Mixed
18	Average	03/24~03/31	6,133	1.0000000000	23.28%	18.89%	17.54%	16.48%	7.22%	4.36%	3.55%	2.53%	1.73%	1.10%	3.33%
19					0.2328152174	0.1889456522	0.1754021739	0.1647717391	0.0721521739	0.0435652174	0.0354782609	0.0252934783	0.0172500000	0.0110217391	0.0333043478	1.0000000000
20	TP	03/23~03/25	1,467	0.2391304348	23.30%	19.40%	18.50%	15.60%	6.40%	4.50%	3.10%	3.10%	1.40%		4.70%		https://www.termometropolitico.com/1593641_sondaggi-tp-lentezza-campagna-vaccinale-colpa-ue-per-un-terzo-italiani.html
21					0.0557173913	0.0463913043	0.0442391304	0.0373043478	0.0153043478	0.0107608696	0.0074130435	0.0074130435	0.0033478261	0.0000000000	0.0112391304
22	IS	03/23~03/25	667	0.1086956522	22.50%	20.30%	17.20%	18.00%	7.60%	3.90%	3.20%	2.20%	1.60%		3.50%		https://www.corriere.it/politica/21_marzo_26/sondaggio-l-arrivo-nuovi-leader-crescono-pd-203percento-m5s-18-lega-primo-partito-225percento-d5a69d32-8e6f-11eb-8542-ee1d410d331e.shtml
23					0.0244565217	0.0220652174	0.0186956522	0.0195652174	0.0082608696	0.0042391304	0.0034782609	0.0023913043	0.0017391304	0.0000000000	0.0038043478
24	NOTO	03/24~03/25	1,000	0.1630434783	24.50%	18.00%	16.50%	16.50%	6.50%	3.00%	3.50%	2.50%	1.50%	4.00%	3.50%		https://www.termometropolitico.com/1593625_sondaggi-noto-centrodestra-sopra-il-50-cresce-il-m5s-giu-il-pd.html
25					0.0399456522	0.0293478261	0.0269021739	0.0269021739	0.0105978261	0.0048913043	0.0057065217	0.0040760870	0.0024456522	0.0065217391	0.0057065217
26	TC	03/26~03/26	1,000	0.1630434783	23.20%	18.30%	17.80%	16.00%	10.30%	4.40%	3.30%	2.20%	1.60%		2.90%		https://www.dire.it/27-03-2021/616073-sondaggio-dire-tecne-continua-il-calo-di-consenso-per-draghi-e-governo/
27					0.0378260870	0.0298369565	0.0290217391	0.0260869565	0.0167934783	0.0071739130	0.0053804348	0.0035869565	0.0026086957	0.0000000000	0.0047282609
28	SWG	03/24~03/28	1,200	0.1956521739	22.60%	18.80%	17.70%	17.40%	6.50%	4.90%	4.50%	2.20%	2.30%	1.30%	1.80%		https://tg.la7.it/politica/il-sondaggio-politico-di-luned%C3%AC-29-marzo-2021-29-03-2021-159488
29					0.0442173913	0.0367826087	0.0346304348	0.0340434783	0.0127173913	0.0095869565	0.0088043478	0.0043043478	0.0045000000	0.0025434783	0.0035217391
30	ID	03/31~03/31	800	0.1304347826	23.50%	18.80%	16.80%	16.00%	6.50%	5.30%	3.60%	2.70%	2.00%	1.50%	3.30%		https://www.la7.it/piazzapulita/video/sondaggi-index-research-la-fiducia-in-draghi-cala-del-27-in-una-settimana-01-04-2021-373344
31					0.0306521739	0.0245217391	0.0219130435	0.0208695652	0.0084782609	0.0069130435	0.0046956522	0.0035217391	0.0026086957	0.0019565217	0.0043043478
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