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MERGER and LBO VALUATION MODEL
https://goo.gl/B65xXN
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NOTE: Complete unshaded cells, only. Shaded cells contain formulae that populate automatically.
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STEP 1
ESTIMATE THE TOTAL COST OF THE DEAL
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Price per share=
201
Debt Outstanding Currently (mil)=
1800
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# Shares Outstanding (mil)=
21.9
Other Costs (Investment Banker, etc.)=
0
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Total Cost of the Deal=
6201.9
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STEP 2
DEFINE HOW THE DEAL WILL BE FINANCED
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REPAYMENT SCHEDULE ( as % of principal)
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SourceAmountInt. rate12345678910
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Equity1000NA
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Pfd. STOCK00.00%
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Debt: Type 1170016.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Debt: Type 2350018.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%20.00%20.00%
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Debt: Type 300.00%
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Debt: Type 400.00%
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Interest rate on debt remaining in terminal year=
12.00%
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Suggestion: For the first run, enter an arbitrary schedule; Check cashflows to equity; Modify schedule;
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STEP 3
DEFINE RATES OF FUTURE GROWTH
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12345678910After yr 10
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Revenues14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%
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Depreciation (See below)
14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%
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Cap. Spending (See below)
14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%
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Working Cap : % of Revenue
16.00%
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COGS: % of Revenues
85.68%
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Default values= If you do not enter rates, the growth rates in depreciation, capital spending = growth rate in revenues.
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The default values for COGS and Working Capital come from Step 6 below.
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STEP 4
GENERAL INFORMATION
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Current T.Bill rate=
8.00%
Market Risk Premium=
8.50%
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Ordinary Tax Rate=
40.00%
Current Beta of Firm=
1.05
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STEP 5
SPECIFY ASSETS TO BE SOLD (Enter the year in which assets will be sold and market value and CF to the firm from those assets)
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12345678910
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Assets sold: Mkt. Value
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Assets sold: Revenues
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Assets sold: COGS (%)
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Assets sold: Depreciation
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Assets sold: Capital Spending
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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[ Enter the market value of the asset sold; Enter the EBIT, Depreciation and Capital Spending of the asset; Only in the year sold]
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STEP 6
ENTER INFORMATION ON CURRENT INCOME STATEMENT
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Revenues =$10,000
COGS as % of Revenue=
85.68%
(Default = 1 - (EBIT+Depreciation)/Revenues)
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Current EBIT =$892.00
Current Capital Spending=
$438.00
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Current Int. Exp=$200.00
Working Cap. as % of Revenues=
16.00%
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Current Deprec'n=
$540.00
Interest rate on Debt Currently=
12.00%
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CASHFLOWS FROM LBO
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PRE- LBOAFTER LBO
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CURRENT12345678910Term Year
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Revenues$10,000 $11,400 $12,996 $14,815 $16,890 $19,254 $20,794 $22,458 $24,255 $26,195 $28,291 $30,554
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COGS$0 $9,768 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Depreciation$540 $616 $702 $800 $912 $1,040 $1,123 $1,213 $1,310 $1,415 $1,528 $1,650
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EBIT$9,460 $1,017 $12,294 $14,015 $15,978 $18,214 $19,672 $21,245 $22,945 $24,781 $26,763 $28,904
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-Int: Type 1$200 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $272 $204
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-Int: Type 2$0 $630 $630 $630 $630 $567 $504 $441 $378 $252 $126 $0
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-Int: Type 3$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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-Int: Type 4$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Taxable Income$9,260 $115 $11,392 $13,113 $15,076 $17,375 $18,896 $20,532 $22,295 $24,257 $26,365 $28,700
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- Taxes$3,704 $46 $4,557 $5,245 $6,030 $6,950 $7,558 $8,213 $8,918 $9,703 $10,546 $11,480
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Net Income$5,556 $69 $6,835 $7,868 $9,045 $10,425 $11,337 $12,319 $13,377 $14,554 $15,819 $17,220
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+ Deprec'n$540 $616 $702 $800 $912 $1,040 $1,123 $1,213 $1,310 $1,415 $1,528 $1,650
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CF from Oper.$6,096 $685 $7,537 $8,668 $9,957 $11,465 $12,460 $13,532 $14,687 $15,968 $17,347 $18,870
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- Capital Sp.$438 $499 $569 $649 $740 $843 $911 $984 $1,062 $1,147 $1,239 $1,338
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- WC Chg$196 $224 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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- Prin. Rep:1$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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- Prin. Rep:2$0 $0 $0 $0 $350 $350 $350 $350 $700 $700 $700 $0
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- Prin. Rep:3$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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- Prin. Rep:4$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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- Pref. Div$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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+ Asset Sales$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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CF to Equity$5,462 ($39)$6,968 $8,019 $8,868 $10,272 $11,199 $12,198 $12,924 $14,121 $15,408 $17,532
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+ Pref. Div$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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+ Int (1-t)$120 $541 $541 $541 $541 $503 $466 $428 $390 $314 $239 $122
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+ Princ. Rep$0 $0 $0 $0 $350 $350 $350 $350 $700 $700 $700 $0
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CF to firm$5,582 $502 $7,509 $8,560 $9,759 $11,125 $12,015 $12,976 $14,014 $15,136 $16,346 $17,654
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Term Value of Equity=
($219,146)
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Term Value of Firm=
($217,446)
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CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND COSTS OF EQUITY/CAPITAL
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PRE-LBOAFTER-LBO
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CURRENT12345678910Term Year
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Debt: Type 1$1,800 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700 $1,700
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Debt: Type 2$0 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,500 $3,150 $2,800 $2,450 $2,100 $1,400 $700 $0
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Debt: Type 3$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Debt: Type 4$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Pfd. Div$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
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Equity$4,402 $1,000 $1,069 $7,904 $15,772 $24,818 $35,243 $46,580 $58,900 $72,277 $86,830 $102,649
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D/E40.89%520.00%486.47%65.79%32.97%19.54%12.77%8.91%6.45%4.29%2.76%1.66%
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D/(D+E+Pfd)29.02%83.87%82.95%39.68%24.79%16.35%11.32%8.18%6.06%4.11%2.69%1.63%
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Pfd/(D+E+Pfd)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
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Beta1.053.473.301.181.010.940.910.890.880.860.860.85