Squiggle experimentation prize

	A	B	C	E	F	G
1	Title	URL	Relative expected value formula	Relative value (normalized to 100%)	Result	Prize

2	Adding Quantified Uncertainty to GiveWell's Cost Effectiveness Analysis of the Against Malaria Foundation	https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4Qdjkf8PatGBsBExK/adding-quantified-uncertainty-to-givewell-s-cost	1000 * mx(0.4 to 40/19.6478606841488,(200 to 50k) / 13.9k, (20 to 70) / 94.2)	67%	1	$600
3	CEA LEEP Malawi	https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BK7ze3FWYu38YbHwo/squiggle-experimentation-challenge-cea-leep-malawi	1000 * mx(0.3 to 30/19.6478606841488,(100 to 2k) / 13.9k, (15 to 50) / 94.2)	26%	2	$300
4	How many EA Billionaires five years from now?	https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ze2Je5GCLBDj3nDzK/how-many-ea-billionaires-five-years-from-now	1000 * mx(1/19.6478606841488,(50 to 1k) / 13.9k, (20 to 30) / 94.2)	7%	3	$100
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100