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COP Countries
High-Intensity Countries
ExplanationTotal
Africa Population 2018
1.11E+09source
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Total PEPFAR spending (USD)3.98E+103.88E+10See table 17.02E+10
author's calculations from data available here
Africa Population 2004
7.59E+08
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Total population (2018)2.68E+099.04E+08See table 1
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Estimated average population per year (2004-2018)2.26E+097.61E+08
Rough estimate -- assume linear trend following Africa's population growth in that period.
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Reduction in all-cause mortality per 1000 people (largest estimate)3.603.89
See table 2 -- standard errors found in S1 Table J
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Reduction in all-cause mortality per 1000 people (smallest estimate)1.011.20
See table 2 -- standard errors found in S1 Table J
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Reduction in all-cause mortality per 1000 people (best guess)2.883.08
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Adjust factor (to weight reduction by population)0.240.55
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Deaths averted (largest estimate)29,561,845.5524,637,809.77
Conservative estimate (effects were larger when population was larger, which this doesn't account for)
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Deaths averted (smallest estimate)8,320,798.177,583,513.29
Conservative estimate (effects were larger when population was larger, which this doesn't account for)
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Death averted (best guess)23,652,630.1319,501,873.37
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$ per death averted (country-level funding only, optimistic estimate) $ 1,345.78 $ 1,574.82 l
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$ per death averted (country-level funding only, pessimistic estimate) $ 4,781.24 $ 5,116.36
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$ per death averted (total funding, optimistic estimate) $ 2,374.68 $ 2,849.28
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$ per death averted (total funding, pessimistic estimate) $ 8,436.69 $ 9,256.92
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$ per death averted (best guess)$2,967.96$3,599.65
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871.28 - 5473.98
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