Less Wrong Survey III
This survey is now closed. Please do not take it. Your responses will not be counted.
This survey is now closed. Please do not take it.
Okay, I will stop taking this survey.
Your survey data will be completely anonymous; no name will be attached. The plan is to make most of the survey data public, so that people can run their own analyses on it. However, if you prefer to keep the data private, it will be visible only to myself (Yvain) and to the Center for Applied Rationality (who are just interested in the answers to the optional rationality questions)
You may make my anonymous survey data public (recommended)
Please keep my data private. Private data will be visible only to Yvain and CFAR
Part One: Basic Demographics
Please write only your age in years, with no other text or characters. For example, 18
If multiple possible answers, please choose the one you most identify with. Ten popular answers are given below; otherwise please write your country into "Other" in the same format as the answers given
With what race do you most identify? "Hispanic" is a term mostly used in the US referring to people whose ethnic background is from Mexico, Central America, and South America.
Asian (East Asian)
Asian (Indian subcontinent)
Part Two: Sex, Gender, Relationships
What sex were you assigned at birth?
With what gender do you primarily identify?
M (transgender f -> m)
F (transgender m -> f)
What is your sexual orientation?
What is your preferred relationship style?
Uncertain / no preference
Number of Current Partners
(for example, 0 if you are single, 1 if you are in a monogamous relationship, higher numbers for polyamorous relationships)
...and currently looking for more relationship partners
...and currently not looking for more relationship partners
Don't give up now, almost done with this part!
How many children do you have?
Lots and lots!
Are you planning on having more children? Answer yes if you don't have children but want some, or if you do have children but want more.
Part Three: Work and Education
What do you currently do?
Academics (on the teaching side)
In what area do you currently work or study? If more than one, please choose most important.
Finance / Economics
Computers (other academic, computer science)
Computers (practical: IT, programming, etc.)
Other "hard science"
Other "social science"
What is your highest degree earned?
2 year degree
MD/JD/other professional degree
Part Four: Views and Opinions
Given that no label can completely describe a person's political views, with which of these labels do you MOST identify?
Libertarian, for example like the US Libertarian Party: socially permissive, minimal/no taxes, minimal/no distribution of wealth
Conservative, for example the US Republican Party and UK Tories: traditional values, low taxes, low redistribution of wealth
Liberal, for example the US Democratic Party or the UK Labour Party: socially permissive, more taxes, more redistribution of wealth
Socialist, for example Scandinavian countries: socially permissive, high taxes, major redistribution of wealth
Communist, for example the old Soviet Union: complete state control of many facets of life
How would you describe your religious views?
Atheist but spiritual
Atheist and not spiritual
How would you describe the religious views of your family when you were growing up?
Atheist but spiritual
Atheist and not spiritual
Mixed / Other
What is your family's religious background?
Mixed / Other
With which of these moral philosophies do you MOST identify?
Accept / lean toward consequentialism
Accept / lean toward deontology
Accept / lean toward virtue ethics
Other / no answer
Part Five: Numbers That Purport To Measure Your Intelligence
If unsure or decline to answer, please leave blank. Please give as precise an answer as you have available, but please use only respectable tests: no amateur Internet IQ tests please!
SAT scores out of 1600
American students take the SATs before going to college. In olden days, the test was scored out of 1600. if you have an SAT score out of 1600, please put it here; otherwise leave blank.
SAT scores out of 2400
American students take the SATs before going to college. Nowadays, the test is scored out of 2400. If you have an SAT score out of 2400, please put it here; otherwise leave blank.
ACT score out of 36
Some American students take the ACTs before going to college. If you have an ACT score out of 36, please put it here; otherwise leave blank.
Part Six: Less Wrong and You
Less Wrong Use
How do you use Less Wrong?
I lurk, but never registered an account
I've registered an account, but never posted
I've posted a comment, but never a top-level post
I've posted in Discussion, but not Main
I've posted in Main
About how much of the Sequences - the collection of Eliezer Yudkowsky's original posts - have you read? You can find a list of them at http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences
Never even knew they existed until this moment
Know they existed, but never looked at them
Some, but less than 25%
About 25% of the Sequences
About 50% of the Sequences
About 75% of the Sequences
Nearly all of the Sequences
How did you find out about Less Wrong?
Been here since it was started in the Overcoming Bias days
Referred by a friend
Referred by a link on another blog
Referred by a search engine
Referred by a school course
Referred by Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality
If you were referred here by another blog (other than Overcoming Bias) or website, please name the site. Otherwise, please leave this blank.
Time in Community
How long, in approximate number of months, have you been in the Overcoming Bias/Less Wrong community? (hint: if you've been here since the start of the community in November 2007, put 60 months)
Time on LW
How long, in approximate number of minutes, do you spend on Less Wrong in the average day?
If you have no account, or your karma score is 0, put 0. You may round off your karma score if you want to be less identifiable. If your karma score is 15000 or above, you may put 15000 if you want to be less identifiable.
Have you ever attended a Less Wrong meetup?
Part Seven: Probabilities
Each of these questions will ask you for a probability. Please answer on a scale from 0% (definitely false) to 100% (definitely true). Do not include the percent sign in your answer. For your convenience, 0% will be interpreted as "epsilon" and 100% as "100 minus epsilon". Do **NOT** give your answer in the form of a decimal between 0 and 1 unless you deliberately mean for it to be interpreted as a very small percent. For example, 0.5 will be interpreted as 0.5%, that is, a one in two hundred chance,**NOT** as 50%. There is no obligation to do research for these questions; this survey is long enough already and it would be incredibly painful to have to find good information about each one. If you really really want to research, you may do so using any resource EXCEPT the answers to previous Less Wrong surveys and discussion about this current Less Wrong survey.
Do you understand the instructions above?
Yes, I understand I should answer in percentages between 0 and 100
No, I don't read instructions and am going to ruin the survey results for everyone
Test Question To See If You're Paying Attention
Please give the obvious answer to this question, so I can automatically throw away all surveys that don't follow the rules: What is the probability of a fair coin coming up heads?
What is the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is more or less correct?
What is the probability that non-human, non-Earthly intelligent life exists in the observable universe?
...in the Milky Way galaxy?
What is the probability that supernatural events, defined as those involving ontologically basic mental entities, have occurred since the beginning of the universe?
What is the probability that there is a god, defined as a supernatural (see above) intelligent entity who created the universe?
What is the probability that any of humankind's revealed religions is more or less correct?
What is the probability that an average person cryonically frozen today will be successfully restored to life at some future time?
What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years?
What is the probability that our universe is a simulation?
What is the probability that significant global warming is occurring or will soon occur, and is primarily caused by human actions?
P(Global catastrophic risk)
What is the probability that the human race will make it to 2100 without any catastrophe that wipes out greater than 90% of humanity?
Part Eight: Slightly More Complicated Questions
By what year do you think the Singularity will occur? Answer such that you think, conditional on the Singularity occurring, there is an even chance of the Singularity falling before or after this year. If you think a singularity is so unlikely you don't even want to condition on it, leave this question blank.
Type of Global Catastrophic Risk
Which disaster do you think is most likely to wipe out greater than 90% of humanity before the year 2100?
Nanotech / grey goo
Environmental collapse (including global warming)
Economic / political collapse
Are you signed up for cryonics?
Yes - signed up or just finishing up paperwork
No - would like to sign up but unavailable in my area
No - would like to sign up but haven't gotten around to it
No - still considering it
No - and do not want to sign up for cryonics
Never thought about it / don't understand
What do you think is the probability that the IQ you gave earlier in the survey is greater than the IQ of over 50% of survey respondents?
Please give your best guess for the year that Thomas Bayes, the discoverer of Bayes' Theorem, was born
Without checking a source, estimate the probability that the answer you just gave is within 20 years either way of the correct answer.
Extra Credit: CFAR Questions
Thank you for getting this far. This is as much survey as anyone could reasonably expect you to answer. Feel totally free to stop here, scroll down, and send in the survey. However, if you are feeling SUPER GENEROUS, you could be extra helpful by answering some bonus questions. These particular questions come from the Center for Applied Rationality and are part of their research efforts. Your privacy settings above will be applied to all Bonus Questions, of course.
CFAR Question 1
Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is looking at George. Jack is married but George is not. Is a married person looking at an unmarried person?
Cannot be determined
CFAR Question 2
Would you prefer to receive $55 today or $75 in 60 days?
$75 in 60 days
CFAR Question 3
A certain town is served by two hospitals. In the larger hospital, about 45 babies are born each day. In the smaller one, about 15 babies are born each day. Although the overall proportion of girls is about 50%, the actual proportion at either hospital may be greater or less on any day. At the end of a year, which hospital will have the greater number of days on which more than 60% of the babies born were girls?
The larger hospital
The smaller hospital
Neither - the number of these days will be about the same
CFAR Question 4
Imagine that you are a doctor, and one of your patients suffers from migraine headaches that last about 3 hours and involve intense pain, nausea, dizziness, and hyper-sensitivity to bright lights and loud noises. The patient usually needs to lie quietly in a dark room until the headache passes. This patient has a migraine headache about 100 times each year. You are considering three medications that you could prescribe for this patient. The medications have similar side effects, but differ in effectiveness and cost. The patient has a low income and must pay the cost because her insurance plan does not cover any of these medications. Which medication would you be most likely to recommend?
Drug A: reduces the number of headaches per year from 100 to 30. It costs $350 per year.
Drug B: reduces the number of headaches per year from 100 to 50. It costs $100 per year.
Drug C: reduces the number of headaches per year from 100 to 60. It costs $100 per year.
CFAR Question 5
Get a random three digit number (000-999) from http://goo.gl/x45un and enter the number here.
CFAR Question 6
Treat the three digit number that you just wrote down as a length, in feet. Is the height of the tallest redwood tree in the world more or less than the number that you wrote down?
CFAR Question 7
What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood tree in the world (in feet)?
Extra Credit: Super Bonus Questions
These questions were inserted by request of various Less Wrong readers. They may or may not be useful or interesting or worth answering. If you don't want to answer any, skip them. If you get bored, feel free to go to the end of the survey and submit it without finishing these. They are *extra credit* only.
How many siblings do you have?
How many *older* siblings do you have?
How old was your biological father when you were born?
How old was your biological mother when you were born?
What is your height *in number of centimeters*? (Americans: convert from feet/inches to centimeters at http://www.albireo.ch/bodyconverter/)
How much money, in number of dollars, have you donated to charity over the past year? (non-Americans: convert to dollars at http://www.xe.com/ ). Please don't include commas or dollar signs in your answer. For example, 4000
How much money have you donated to SIAI or CFAR in the past year?
How much money have you donated to anti-aging related charities like SENS over the past year?
Are you a vegetarian?
Do you use spaced repetition systems like Anki, SuperMemo, etc?
Never heard of these
Have you read "Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality"?
Yes, all of it
Started it but haven't finished
How many times have you read the LW wiki in the last month?
How many times have you edited the LW wiki in the last month?
This is an alternative to the politics question above, suggested by ArisKatsaris. Please select the label with which you *most* identify.
Alternative Alternative Politics
Okay fine, knock yourself out identifying with as tiny and finely-grained a subcategory as you want
How many hours do you spend reading each week, including books, magazines, and websites?
How many hours do you spend writing each week, including books, schoolwork, blog posts, internet comments, etc?
How many hours do you spend on the Internet each week?
How often do you use caffeine? (including coffee and energy drinks)
At least once a week
Do you smoke cigarettes?
Yes, I still smoke
No, I used to but I quit
No, I have never smoked
How often do you use nicotine without tobacco - ie not in cigarettes, pipes, chewing tobacco, etc?
At least once a month
Rarely / only tried a few times
How often do you use adrafinil, modafinil, or armodafinil?
At least once a month
Rarely / only tried a few times
Do you agree or disagree with the "troll toll" (responses to heavily downvoted posts now cost karma points)
Agree with toll
Disagree with toll
Haven't heard of this
True Prisoners' Dilemma
On the so-called "True Prisoners' Dilemma" at http://lesswrong.com/lw/tn/the_true_prisoners_dilemma/, what do you do?
Not sure / no preference / no answer
Are you confused by the subject of free will?
Torture vs. Dust Specks
How do you feel about the torture vs. dust specks scenario described at http://lesswrong.com/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/ ?
Choose dust specks
Are you familiar enough with the math of quantum mechanics to solve the Schrodinger equation for a hydrogen atom?
What is your primary spoken language?
Number of Languages
In how many languages do you consider yourself fluent?
Would you one-box or two-box in Newcomb's Problem as described at http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Newcomb%27s_problem ?
Don't understand / prefer not to answer
What is your approximate annual income in US dollars (non-Americans: convert at www.xe.com)? Obviously you don't need to answer this question if you don't want to. Please don't include commas or dollar signs.
Are you interested in being an entrepreneur or founding a startup?
I've already started my own business
I plan to start my own business
I am considering starting my own business
I don't want to start my own business
How important is it to you to stay anonymous when participating in the Less Wrong community?
I post using my real name
I don't post with my real name, but it's easy to find and I don't mind
My real name isn't easy to find, but it wouldn't bother me much if someone did
Staying anonymous is very important to me
Using the same reporting method as the previous probability questions - what is your probability that you will some day go into space?
Have you participated in any previous Less Wrong Census/Surveys?
Extra Credit: Unreasonably Long and Complicated Questions
...why are you still here? Seriously, you can stop filling in the survey, scroll down to the bottom, and hit "Submit" any time you want. No one will hold it against you!
Political Compass Left/Right
Take the Political Compass test at http://www.politicalcompass.org/ (takes about 15 minutes). What is your Left/Right score?
Political Compass Liberty
And what is your Libertarian/Authoritarian score?
Big Five: O
Take the personality test at http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/ (takes about 10 minutes). What is your percentile for Openness?
Big Five: C
Take the personality test at http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/ (takes about 10 minutes). What is your percentile for Conscientiousness?
Big Five: E
Take the personality test at http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/ (takes about 10 minutes). What is your percentile for Extraversion?
Big Five: A
Take the personality test at http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/ (takes about 10 minutes). What is your percentile for Agreeableness?
Big Five: N
Take the personality test at http://www.outofservice.com/bigfive/ (takes about 10 minutes). What is your percentile for Neuroticism?
Take the IQ test at http://iqtest.dk/ . What IQ do you get?
Take the Myers-Briggs Personality Test at http://www.humanmetrics.com/cgi-win/jtypes2.asp. What is your four-letter personality type (e.g. INTJ)?
Take the autism test at http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.12/aqtest.html . What is your score?
How would you describe Less Wrong in 140 characters or less?
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