.

Estimate of ComplexityProcessing Power NeededHow Determined

.

Easy: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #1 from Singularity Is Near10^14 instructions/secondExtrapolated from the weight of the portion of the brain responsible for image processing to, compared to the computer computation necessary to recreate

.

Medium: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #2 from Singularity Is Near10^15 instructions/secondBased on the human brain containing 10^11 neurons, and it taking 10^4 instructions per neuron.

.

Hard: My worst case scenario: brute force simulation of every neuron10^18 instructions/secondBrute force simulation of 10^11 neurons, each having 10^4 synapses, firing up to 10^3 times per second.

.

40,000,000,00040 billion neurons

.

With Glial cells10^20Approximately 10x glial cells, assume it has a 10^3 cost above brute force neuron simulation

.

.

.

ComputerMIPSYear

.

Intel Pentium Pro5411996

.

Intel Core i7 3960X1777302011

.

14.9415718889938

.

Gap in years15

.

Total Growth328.52

.

Rate of growth1.47

.

.

Mips1,000,000

.

Num Computers110010000

.

Percent of lower bound (10^14)Percent of middle boundPercent of upper boundPercent of lower bound (10^14)Percent of middle boundPercent of upper boundPercent of lower bound (10^14)Percent of middle boundPercent of upper bound

.

1000000000000001.00E+161.00E+181000000000000001.00E+161.00E+181000000000000001.00E+161.00E+18

.

2011177,7300.000.000.000.180.000.0017.770.180.00

.

2012261,5360.000.000.000.260.000.0026.150.260.00

.

2013384,8600.000.000.000.380.000.0038.490.380.00

.

2014566,3350.010.000.000.570.010.0056.630.570.01

.

2015833,3820.010.000.000.830.010.0083.340.830.01

.

20161,226,3520.010.000.001.230.010.00122.641.230.01

.

20171,804,6220.020.000.001.800.020.00180.461.800.02

.

20182,655,5660.030.000.002.660.030.00265.562.660.03

.

20193,907,7600.040.000.003.910.040.00390.783.910.04

.

20205,750,4100.060.000.005.750.060.00575.045.750.06

.

20218,461,9360.080.000.008.460.080.00846.198.460.08

.

202212,452,0430.120.000.0012.450.120.001,245.2012.450.12

.

202318,323,6300.180.000.0018.320.180.001,832.3618.320.18

.

202426,963,8820.270.000.0026.960.270.002,696.3926.960.27

.

202539,678,3240.400.000.0039.680.400.003,967.8339.680.40

.

202658,388,0830.580.010.0058.390.580.015,838.8158.390.58

.

202785,920,1680.860.010.0085.920.860.018,592.0285.920.86

.

2028126,434,6221.260.010.00126.431.260.0112,643.46126.431.26

.

2029186,053,1011.860.020.00186.051.860.0218,605.31186.051.86

.

2030273,783,8402.740.030.00273.782.740.0327,378.38273.782.74

.

2031402,882,7834.030.040.00402.884.030.0440,288.28402.884.03

.

2032592,856,5295.930.060.00592.865.930.0659,285.65592.865.93

.

2033872,409,7408.720.090.00872.418.720.0987,240.97872.418.72

.

20341,283,782,36012.840.130.001,283.7812.840.13128,378.241,283.7812.84

.

20351,889,131,98918.890.190.001,889.1318.890.19188,913.201,889.1318.89

.

20362,779,925,77727.800.280.002,779.9327.800.28277,992.582,779.9327.80

.

20374,090,760,92540.910.410.004,090.7640.910.41409,076.094,090.7640.91

.

20386,019,702,06760.200.600.016,019.7060.200.60601,970.216,019.7060.20

.

20398,858,208,44788.580.890.018,858.2188.580.89885,820.848,858.2188.58

.

204013,035,172,840130.351.300.0113,035.17130.351.301,303,517.2813,035.17130.35

.

204119,181,726,415191.821.920.0219,181.73191.821.921,918,172.6419,181.73191.82

.

204228,226,601,426282.272.820.0328,226.60282.272.822,822,660.1428,226.60282.27

.

204341,536,460,839415.364.150.0441,536.46415.364.154,153,646.0841,536.46415.36

.

204461,122,398,441611.226.110.0661,122.40611.226.116,112,239.8461,122.40611.22

.

204589,943,811,191899.448.990.0989,943.81899.448.998,994,381.1289,943.81899.44

.

2046132,355,558,3211,323.5613.240.13132,355.561,323.5613.2413,235,555.83132,355.561,323.56

.

2047194,765,972,0701,947.6619.480.19194,765.971,947.6619.4819,476,597.21194,765.971,947.66

.

2048286,605,144,1872,866.0528.660.29286,605.142,866.0528.6628,660,514.42286,605.142,866.05

.

2049421,749,794,3894,217.5042.170.42421,749.794,217.5042.1742,174,979.44421,749.794,217.50

.

2050620,620,015,6376,206.2062.060.62620,620.026,206.2062.0662,062,001.56620,620.026,206.20

.

2051913,264,710,3410.91

.

20521,343,901,920,8851.34

.

20531,977,600,089,5561.98