. Estimate of Complexity Processing Power Needed How Determined . Easy: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #1 from Singularity Is Near 10^14 instructions/second Extrapolated from the weight of the portion of the brain responsible for image processing to, compared to the computer computation necessary to recreate . Medium: Ray Kurzweil's estimate #2 from Singularity Is Near 10^15 instructions/second Based on the human brain containing 10^11 neurons, and it taking 10^4 instructions per neuron. . Hard: My worst case scenario: brute force simulation of every neuron 10^18 instructions/second Brute force simulation of 10^11 neurons, each having 10^4 synapses, firing up to 10^3 times per second. . 40,000,000,000 40 billion neurons . With Glial cells 10^20 Approximately 10x glial cells, assume it has a 10^3 cost above brute force neuron simulation . . . Computer MIPS Year . Intel Pentium Pro 541 1996 . Intel Core i7 3960X 177730 2011 . 14.9415718889938 . Gap in years 15 . Total Growth 328.52 . Rate of growth 1.47 . . Mips 1,000,000 . Num Computers 1 100 10000 . Percent of lower bound (10^14) Percent of middle bound Percent of upper bound Percent of lower bound (10^14) Percent of middle bound Percent of upper bound Percent of lower bound (10^14) Percent of middle bound Percent of upper bound . 100000000000000 1.00E+16 1.00E+18 100000000000000 1.00E+16 1.00E+18 100000000000000 1.00E+16 1.00E+18 . 2011 177,730 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 17.77 0.18 0.00 . 2012 261,536 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 26.15 0.26 0.00 . 2013 384,860 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.38 0.00 0.00 38.49 0.38 0.00 . 2014 566,335 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.57 0.01 0.00 56.63 0.57 0.01 . 2015 833,382 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.01 0.00 83.34 0.83 0.01 . 2016 1,226,352 0.01 0.00 0.00 1.23 0.01 0.00 122.64 1.23 0.01 . 2017 1,804,622 0.02 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.02 0.00 180.46 1.80 0.02 . 2018 2,655,566 0.03 0.00 0.00 2.66 0.03 0.00 265.56 2.66 0.03 . 2019 3,907,760 0.04 0.00 0.00 3.91 0.04 0.00 390.78 3.91 0.04 . 2020 5,750,410 0.06 0.00 0.00 5.75 0.06 0.00 575.04 5.75 0.06 . 2021 8,461,936 0.08 0.00 0.00 8.46 0.08 0.00 846.19 8.46 0.08 . 2022 12,452,043 0.12 0.00 0.00 12.45 0.12 0.00 1,245.20 12.45 0.12 . 2023 18,323,630 0.18 0.00 0.00 18.32 0.18 0.00 1,832.36 18.32 0.18 . 2024 26,963,882 0.27 0.00 0.00 26.96 0.27 0.00 2,696.39 26.96 0.27 . 2025 39,678,324 0.40 0.00 0.00 39.68 0.40 0.00 3,967.83 39.68 0.40 . 2026 58,388,083 0.58 0.01 0.00 58.39 0.58 0.01 5,838.81 58.39 0.58 . 2027 85,920,168 0.86 0.01 0.00 85.92 0.86 0.01 8,592.02 85.92 0.86 . 2028 126,434,622 1.26 0.01 0.00 126.43 1.26 0.01 12,643.46 126.43 1.26 . 2029 186,053,101 1.86 0.02 0.00 186.05 1.86 0.02 18,605.31 186.05 1.86 . 2030 273,783,840 2.74 0.03 0.00 273.78 2.74 0.03 27,378.38 273.78 2.74 . 2031 402,882,783 4.03 0.04 0.00 402.88 4.03 0.04 40,288.28 402.88 4.03 . 2032 592,856,529 5.93 0.06 0.00 592.86 5.93 0.06 59,285.65 592.86 5.93 . 2033 872,409,740 8.72 0.09 0.00 872.41 8.72 0.09 87,240.97 872.41 8.72 . 2034 1,283,782,360 12.84 0.13 0.00 1,283.78 12.84 0.13 128,378.24 1,283.78 12.84 . 2035 1,889,131,989 18.89 0.19 0.00 1,889.13 18.89 0.19 188,913.20 1,889.13 18.89 . 2036 2,779,925,777 27.80 0.28 0.00 2,779.93 27.80 0.28 277,992.58 2,779.93 27.80 . 2037 4,090,760,925 40.91 0.41 0.00 4,090.76 40.91 0.41 409,076.09 4,090.76 40.91 . 2038 6,019,702,067 60.20 0.60 0.01 6,019.70 60.20 0.60 601,970.21 6,019.70 60.20 . 2039 8,858,208,447 88.58 0.89 0.01 8,858.21 88.58 0.89 885,820.84 8,858.21 88.58 . 2040 13,035,172,840 130.35 1.30 0.01 13,035.17 130.35 1.30 1,303,517.28 13,035.17 130.35 . 2041 19,181,726,415 191.82 1.92 0.02 19,181.73 191.82 1.92 1,918,172.64 19,181.73 191.82 . 2042 28,226,601,426 282.27 2.82 0.03 28,226.60 282.27 2.82 2,822,660.14 28,226.60 282.27 . 2043 41,536,460,839 415.36 4.15 0.04 41,536.46 415.36 4.15 4,153,646.08 41,536.46 415.36 . 2044 61,122,398,441 611.22 6.11 0.06 61,122.40 611.22 6.11 6,112,239.84 61,122.40 611.22 . 2045 89,943,811,191 899.44 8.99 0.09 89,943.81 899.44 8.99 8,994,381.12 89,943.81 899.44 . 2046 132,355,558,321 1,323.56 13.24 0.13 132,355.56 1,323.56 13.24 13,235,555.83 132,355.56 1,323.56 . 2047 194,765,972,070 1,947.66 19.48 0.19 194,765.97 1,947.66 19.48 19,476,597.21 194,765.97 1,947.66 . 2048 286,605,144,187 2,866.05 28.66 0.29 286,605.14 2,866.05 28.66 28,660,514.42 286,605.14 2,866.05 . 2049 421,749,794,389 4,217.50 42.17 0.42 421,749.79 4,217.50 42.17 42,174,979.44 421,749.79 4,217.50 . 2050 620,620,015,637 6,206.20 62.06 0.62 620,620.02 6,206.20 62.06 62,062,001.56 620,620.02 6,206.20 . 2051 913,264,710,341 0.91 . 2052 1,343,901,920,885 1.34 . 2053 1,977,600,089,556 1.98