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1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls: Margin of Error Probability Sensitivity Analysis

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Exit polls (Roper website)274(note: only 24 exit polls in 1988)

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Base case cluster factor30%

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Exit Poll MoE (average)3.60%

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SummaryNumberPctProbability

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Exit Polls red-shifting to GOP23284.67%9.11E-35

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Exit Polls exceeding MoE 13549.27%1.20E-83

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Exit Polls exceeding MoE: R/S to GOP13197.04%3.74E-116

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Exit Polls Exceeding MoE (including cluster effect)

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Cluster FactorAvg MoEExit Polls > MoE198819921996200020042008Prob

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0%2.77%1721335292332401.05E-123

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10%3.05%1591333262028391.53E-108

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20%3.32%1511331231926394.12E-100

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30%3.60%1351227191723371.20E-83

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40%3.88%1281227181522349.21E-77

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50%4.16%1181123171221343.25E-67

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60%4.43%1121022171119331.17E-61

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70%4.71%105921161017322.35E-55

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80%4.99%9391814816285.03E-45

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90%5.26%8791713815254.18E-40

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100%5.54%8191412715242.30E-35

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110%5.82%7581311714228.12E-31

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120%6.09%687129612228.97E-26

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130%6.37%636128512202.32E-22

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140%6.65%565107510197.16E-18

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150%6.93%51595410186.80E-15

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160%7.20%4749538181.16E-12

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170%7.48%4349537151.41E-10

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180%7.76%3836536153.37E-08

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190%8.03%3336525124.20E-06

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200%8.31%2934524111.17E-04

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250%9.70%1513010101.06E-01

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Check30%3.60%1351227191723371.20E-83

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ClusterAvgExitPollsMargin of Error

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FactorMoE> MoE198819921996200020042008

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0%2.77%1722.67%3.13%2.67%2.95%2.64%2.55%

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10%3.05%1592.94%3.44%2.94%3.25%2.91%2.80%

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20%3.32%1513.21%3.75%3.21%3.54%3.17%3.06%

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30%3.60%1353.47%4.06%3.48%3.84%3.43%3.31%

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40%3.88%1283.74%4.38%3.74%4.13%3.70%3.57%

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50%4.16%1184.01%4.69%4.01%4.43%3.96%3.82%

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60%4.43%1124.27%5.00%4.28%4.72%4.23%4.08%

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70%4.71%1054.54%5.31%4.55%5.02%4.49%4.33%

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80%4.99%934.81%5.63%4.81%5.31%4.76%4.59%

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90%5.26%875.08%5.94%5.08%5.61%5.02%4.84%

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100%5.54%815.34%6.25%5.35%5.90%5.28%5.09%

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110%5.82%755.61%6.56%5.62%6.20%5.55%5.35%

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120%6.09%685.88%6.88%5.88%6.49%5.81%5.60%

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130%6.37%636.14%7.19%6.15%6.79%6.08%5.86%

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140%6.65%566.41%7.50%6.42%7.08%6.34%6.11%

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150%6.93%516.68%7.81%6.69%7.38%6.60%6.37%

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160%7.20%476.95%8.13%6.95%7.67%6.87%6.62%

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170%7.48%437.21%8.44%7.22%7.97%7.13%6.88%

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180%7.76%387.48%8.75%7.49%8.26%7.40%7.13%

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190%8.03%337.75%9.06%7.76%8.56%7.66%7.39%

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200%8.31%298.02%9.38%8.02%8.85%7.93%7.64%

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250%9.70%159.35%10.94%9.36%10.33%9.25%8.92%

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Check30%3.60%1353.47%4.06%3.48%3.84%3.43%3.31%