1988-2020 Presidential Unadjusted Exit Polls / Recorded Vote/ True Vote


1
2
3
4	2012 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote match)
5					0.96		2012
6	2008	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other
7	Obama	52.93%	70.24	69.50	66.72	93%	62.05	48.1%	90%	7%	3%
8	McCain	45.65%	60.19	59.95	57.55	97%	55.83	43.2%	7%	93%	0%
9	Other	1.42%	1.88	1.87	1.80	97%	1.74	1.3%	51%	45%	4%
10	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	9.51	7.4%	55%	42%	3%
11
12	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	124.75	118.51	129.13	100%	51.01%	47.27%	1.72%
13								Vote	65.9	60.94	2.3
14								Share Margin	3.74%
15								Vote Margin	4.96
16
17	2016 True Vote Model		0.96	2016
18	2012		Vote share	Votes	Alive	Turnout	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Trump	Other
19	Obama	51.01%	51.03%	65.83	63.20	92%	58.14	42.69%	87%	10%	3%
20	Romney	47.27%	47.19%	60.88	58.44	95%	55.52	40.76%	7%	89%	4%
21	Other	1.72%	3.84%	4.95	4.76	95%	4.52	3.32%	40%	40%	20%
22	Did Not Vote (new)		-	-	-	-	18.02	13.23%	42%	48%	10%
23
24	TOTAL		100.00%	129.00	126.39		136.20	100%	46.88%	48.23%	4.90%
25								Vote	63.85	65.68	6.67
26								Share Margin		1.35%
27								Vote Margin		1.84

1

UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS VS. REPORTED VS. TRUE VOTE MODEL

2

ROW 77

28 STATE EXIT POLLS, REPORTED VOTES AND TRUE VOTE CALCULATIONS

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

When decided

3

413

SUMMARY VOTE SHARES AND ELECTORAL VOTES

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

http://www.census.gov/library/publications/2013/demo/p20-568.html

NATIONAL

Clinton

Trump

Margin

4

http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

month

26%

40%

48%

8%

5

2016

Final CNN exit poll

Party-ID: True vote Gallup Survey

Unadjusted

Reported

Trump

Margin Discrepancies

Reported

Gallup

National

Share of Independents

before

73%

51%

45%

-6%

6

28polls

Unadjusted Exit Poll

Matched to reported

True Vote Model 1

True Vote Model 2

Exit Poll

Vote

TVM1

TVM2

Exit Poll-

TVM1 -

TVM2 -

Party-ID

32%

28%

40%

Unadj

Reported

When decided

Before Oct.1

Chg

Last week

calc

93.0%

47.6%

45.3%

-2.3%

7

Votes

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

Margin

Reported

Dem

Repub

Ind

Dem

Repub

Ind

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

After Oct.1

Clinton

Trump

Margin

Clinton

Trump

Margin

Reported

94.4%

48.2%

46.2%

-2.0%

8

Average

110,702

47.6%

44.6%

46.6%

46.7%

45.9%

46.7%

42.9%

49.1%

-3.0%

0.16%

0.8%

6.1%

-3.2%

0.7%

6.0%

35.3%

32.5%

32.2%

32.5%

29.2%

38.4%

Average

43.6%

40.9%

39.7%

47.9%

Average

25.57%

38.1%

50.5%

12.4%

49.4%

37.0%

-12.4%

24.7%

14.1%

9

Wtd

49.6%

43.6%

49.3%

45.2%

48.1%

45.2%

44.2%

47.9%

-6.0%

-4.1%

-2.9%

3.7%

-1.9%

1.2%

7.8%

37.5%

31.8%

30.8%

33.6%

28.4%

38.0%

Wtd Avg

43.8%

41.4%

42.0%

46.5%

Wtd Avg

25.55%

40.7%

50.8%

10.0%

52.3%

44.1%

-8.2%

18.2%

13.5%

When decided

10

1

OH

5,496

47.0%

47.1%

43.6%

51.7%

43.9%

51.1%

42.9%

50.4%

0.1%

8.1%

7.2%

7.5%

-8.0%

-0.9%

-0.6%

34%

37%

29%

32.4%

33.4%

34.2%

OH

50%

35%

38%

51%

OH

25%

37%

54%

17%

47%

50%

3%

14%

15%

WA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

11

2

NC

4,742

48.6%

46.5%

46.2%

49.8%

47.3%

48.1%

45.7%

46.6%

-2.1%

3.7%

0.8%

-5.8%

-2.8%

35%

31%

34%

32.9%

24.2%

42.9%

NC

47%

43%

39%

53%

NC

25%

33%

57%

24%

51%

47%

-4%

28%

8%

month

22%

46%

41%

-5%

12

3

NJ

3,907

59.8%

35.8%

55.0%

41.0%

53.6%

44.1%

44.6%

46.4%

-24.0%

-14.0%

-9.5%

1.8%

-10.0%

4.4%

15.8%

43%

27%

30%

25.8%

15.7%

58.5%

NJ

67%

28%

51%

48%

NJ

25%

50%

41%

-9%

55%

43%

-12%

3%

17%

before

75%

57%

38%

-19%

13

4

PA

5,950

50.5%

46.1%

47.9%

48.6%

48.9%

45.7%

47.8%

45.8%

-4.4%

0.7%

-3.2%

-2.0%

-5.1%

-3.9%

-2.7%

41%

39%

20%

39.1%

29.2%

31.7%

PA

53%

41%

36%

53%

PA

24%

43%

49%

6%

47%

51%

4%

2%

15%

calc

90.4%

52.9%

37.5%

-15.4%

14

5

MI

4,799

46.8%

47.3%

47.5%

45.5%

48.3%

45.1%

47.0%

0.0%

0.2%

2.7%

2.0%

-0.2%

2.5%

1.7%

40%

31%

29%

34.7%

29.4%

35.9%

MI

32%

53%

36%

52%

MI

26%

37%

52%

15%

50%

47%

-3%

18%

13%

Reported

93.1%

54.7%

38.4%

-16.4%

15

6

MO

2,809

42.8%

51.2%

38.1%

56.8%

37.2%

57.4%

41.5%

51.7%

8.4%

18.6%

20.2%

10.2%

-10.2%

1.6%

-8.5%

34%

39%

27%

30.8%

35.0%

34.2%

MO

45%

40%

28%

62%

MO

29%

36%

52%

16%

38%

59%

21%

-5%

15%

16

7

IA

1,566

44.1%

48.0%

41.7%

51.1%

42.7%

49.8%

40.6%

49.6%

3.9%

9.4%

7.1%

9.0%

-5.5%

-2.3%

-0.4%

31%

34%

35%

29.6%

29.0%

41.4%

IA

42%

41%

36%

50%

IA

26%

35%

53%

18%

47%

0%

18%

14%

17

8

FL

9,420

47.7%

46.4%

47.8%

49.0%

49.3%

45.9%

43.6%

48.9%

-1.3%

1.2%

-3.4%

5.4%

-2.5%

-4.6%

4.2%

32%

33%

35%

37.0%

31.7%

31.3%

FL

47%

42%

43%

47%

FL

26%

43%

50%

7%

49%

0%

7%

11%

18

9

WI

2,976

48.2%

44.3%

46.5%

47.2%

47.1%

43.6%

48.4%

-3.9%

0.8%

-0.1%

4.8%

-4.7%

-0.9%

4.0%

35%

30%

33.9%

32.6%

33.5%

WI

47%

34%

42%

46%

WI

14%

30%

59%

29%

49%

47%

-2%

31%

14%

IL

Clinton

Trump

Margin

19

10

VA

3,983

50.9%

43.2%

49.8%

44.4%

46.1%

48.1%

42.0%

49.5%

-7.7%

-5.3%

2.0%

7.5%

-2.4%

7.3%

12.8%

40%

33%

27%

31.6%

33.4%

35.0%

VA

47%

44%

41%

48%

VA

23%

42%

48%

6%

52%

44%

-8%

14%

month

30%

34%

71%

37%

match calc

20

11

NV

1,125

48.7%

42.8%

47.9%

45.5%

45.6%

47.3%

44.8%

50.6%

-5.9%

-2.4%

1.7%

5.8%

-3.5%

4.1%

8.2%

36%

28%

36%

31.3%

27.5%

41.2%

NV

39%

43%

37%

50%

NV

11%

45%

40%

-5%

49%

44%

-5%

0%

11%

before

69%

66%

32%

-34%

21

12

NH

742

49.4%

44.2%

47.0%

46.6%

46.2%

46.9%

39.8%

51.5%

-5.2%

-0.4%

0.7%

11.8%

-4.8%

1.0%

12.1%

28%

44%

21.5%

23.9%

54.6%

NH

49%

41%

43%

46%

NH

29%

42%

50%

8%

51%

45%

-6%

14%

20%

calc

99.2%

55.8%

43.4%

-12.4%

22

13

MN

2,945

45.7%

45.8%

46.4%

44.9%

46.8%

43.8%

43.9%

45.7%

0.1%

-1.5%

-2.9%

1.7%

1.6%

-1.4%

3.2%

37%

35%

28%

34.7%

31.0%

34.3%

MN

39%

43%

42%

40%

MN

29%

33%

51%

18%

51%

41%

-10%

28%

20%

Reported

94.6%

55.8%

38.8%

-17.1%

23

14

ME

748

51.2%

40.2%

47.8%

44.9%

48.7%

45.2%

42.5%

49.0%

-11.0%

-3.0%

-3.5%

6.5%

-8.0%

-0.5%

9.4%

32%

27%

41%

25.2%

21.6%

53.3%

ME

54%

28%

42%

45%

ME

31%

35%

51%

16%

51%

43%

-8%

24%

22%

24

15

CO

2,780

46.5%

41.5%

48.2%

43.3%

44.1%

47.0%

41.9%

47.2%

-5.0%

-4.9%

2.9%

5.3%

-0.1%

7.8%

10.2%

32%

24%

44%

24.4%

26.2%

49.4%

CO

38%

40%

42%

44%

CO

22%

37%

48%

11%

52%

42%

-10%

21%

6%

25

16

TX

8,969

42.3%

51.8%

43.2%

52.2%

44.6%

50.0%

41.2%

50.9%

9.5%

9.0%

5.4%

9.7%

0.5%

-3.6%

0.7%

29%

38%

33%

29.2%

32.6%

38.2%

TX

36%

51%

39%

52%

TX

24%

46%

47%

1%

44%

51%

7%

-6%

10%

CA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

26

17

IL

5,536

53.6%

38.4%

55.8%

38.8%

51.1%

40.4%

46.5%

44.3%

-15.2%

-17.1%

-10.7%

-2.2%

1.9%

6.3%

14.9%

45%

30%

25%

37.1%

27.8%

35.1%

IL

37%

39%

46%

40%

IL

30%

34%

71%

37%

66%

32%

-34%

71%

22%

month

29%

51%

42%

-9%

27

18

CA

14,182

60.0%

31.5%

61.7%

31.6%

56.1%

34.8%

46.5%

43.4%

-28.5%

-30.1%

-21.3%

-3.1%

1.6%

8.8%

27.0%

47%

23%

30%

34.2%

22.3%

43.5%

CA

46%

33%

52%

33%

CA

29%

51%

42%

-9%

67%

29%

-38%

29%

13%

before

68%

67%

29%

-38%

28

19

NY

7,456

55.8%

39.8%

59.6%

36.7%

58.2%

36.4%

51.4%

44.0%

-16.0%

-22.8%

-21.7%

-7.4%

6.8%

1.1%

15.4%

48%

26%

39.0%

19.0%

42.0%

NY

36%

51%

50%

40%

NY

26%

38%

60%

22%

67%

31%

-36%

58%

17%

calc

92.3%

60.4%

31.9%

-28.5%

29

20

GA

4,115

46.8%

48.2%

45.6%

50.8%

44.7%

51.5%

42.4%

53.2%

1.4%

5.1%

6.9%

10.8%

-3.7%

1.7%

5.7%

34%

36%

30%

30.8%

34.2%

35.0%

GA

45%

42%

41%

51%

GA

20%

47%

55%

8%

45%

53%

8%

0%

10%

Reported

93.3%

61.7%

31.6%

-30.1%

30

21

AZ

2,573

46.8%

48.2%

45.1%

48.7%

44.1%

49.1%

38.9%

50.6%

1.4%

3.5%

4.9%

11.7%

-2.1%

1.4%

8.2%

28%

32%

40%

22.8%

27.4%

49.8%

AZ

49%

45%

47%

AZ

25%

40%

48%

8%

48%

0%

8%

9%

31

22

WA

3,184

51.3%

35.8%

54.7%

38.4%

49.0%

44.5%

43.8%

49.7%

-15.5%

-16.4%

-4.4%

5.9%

0.9%

11.9%

22.3%

34%

20%

46%

35.5%

35.8%

28.7%

WA

41%

37%

48%

43%

WA

22%

46%

41%

-5%

57%

38%

-19%

14%

6%

32

23

UT

1,131

32.4%

41.8%

27.5%

45.5%

27.8%

45.8%

31.9%

59.5%

9.4%

18.1%

17.9%

27.6%

-8.7%

-0.1%

9.5%

20%

45%

35%

20.5%

46.9%

32.6%

UT

39%

31%

26%

42%

UT

44%

17%

39%

22%

36%

52%

16%

6%

20%

NY

Clinton

Trump

Margin

33

24

SC

2,103

42.8%

50.3%

40.7%

54.9%

46.1%

48.1%

41.1%

50.3%

7.5%

14.3%

2.0%

9.2%

-6.8%

-12.3%

-5.0%

27%

46%

27%

34.2%

35.0%

30.8%

SC

57%

26%

49%

43%

SC

26%

39%

50%

11%

42%

56%

14%

-3%

16%

month

26%

38%

60%

22%

match calc

34

25

KY

1,924

35.0%

61.5%

32.7%

62.5%

34.0%

62.3%

37.1%

56.3%

26.5%

29.8%

28.2%

19.2%

-3.3%

-1.6%

-10.6%

38%

44%

18%

40.0%

28.0%

32.0%

KY

29%

68%

17%

73%

KY

28%

27%

63%

36%

31%

67%

36%

0%

17%

before

74%

67%

31%

-36%

35

26

OR

2,001

50.7%

38.8%

50.1%

39.1%

49.1%

40.4%

43.4%

44.9%

-11.9%

-11.0%

-8.6%

1.5%

-0.9%

2.4%

12.5%

33%

23%

44%

46.4%

23.8%

29.8%

OR

43%

40%

41%

40%

OR

20%

32%

48%

16%

54%

38%

-16%

32%

4%

calc

98.1%

59.6%

38.5%

-21.0%

36

27

NM

798

47.9%

37.8%

48.3%

40.0%

47.0%

40.4%

43.6%

49.0%

-10.1%

-8.2%

-6.6%

5.4%

-1.9%

1.7%

13.6%

41%

27%

32%

38.4%

24.8%

36.8%

NM

36%

35%

37%

42%

NM

28%

37%

41%

4%

52%

40%

-12%

16%

14%

Reported

96.3%

59.6%

36.7%

-22.8%

37

28

IN

2,741

39.6%

53.9%

37.9%

56.8%

39.4%

48.6%

43.7%

49.4%

14.3%

18.9%

9.2%

5.7%

-4.6%

-9.7%

-13.2%

34%

39%

27%

35.8%

35.0%

29.2%

IN

32%

50%

25%

61%

IN

29%

34%

53%

19%

35%

61%

26%

-7%

21%

38

39

Before

After

40

IA

0%

18%

41

FL

0%

7%

OR

Clinton

Trump

Margin

42

2016 Gallup Party-ID and 2016 NEP Vote shares

2016 Gallup Party-ID and revised NEP Ind Vote shares

2016 National Exit Poll

2016 Pre-election

WI

-2%

29%

month

20%

32%

48%

16%

43

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Other

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Other

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Other

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Other

VA

-8%

6%

before

77%

54%

38%

-16%

44

Dem

32%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

32%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

36%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

39.0%

89%

6%

3.0%

NV

-5%

calc

86.8%

48.0%

38.9%

-9.1%

45

Rep

28%

8%

88%

4%

Rep

28%

8%

88%

4%

Rep

33%

8%

88%

4%

Rep

32.0%

5%

89%

4.0%

NH

-6%

8%

Reported

89.2%

50.1%

39.1%

-11.0%

46

Ind

40%

42%

46%

12%

Ind

40%

50%

10%

Ind

31%

42%

46%

12%

Ind

29.0%

33.8%

43.6%

12.0%

MN

-10%

18%

47

Total

100%

47.5%

45.6%

6.9%

Total

100%

46.7%

47.2%

6.1%

Total

100%

47.7%

46.2%

6.1%

4.49%

Total

95.5%

46.1%

43.5%

5.9%

ME

-8%

16%

OH

Clinton

Trump

Margin

48

0.5

True Vote

100.0%

48.4%

45.7%

5.9%

CO

-10%

11%

month

25%

37%

54%

17%

49

TX

7%

1%

before

75%

47%

50%

3%

50

2016 NEP Party-ID and Pre-electon Vote shares

2016 Gallup Party-ID and Pre-election Vote shares

2012 National Exit Poll Gallup

2012 National Exit Poll

IL

-34%

37%

calc

95.5%

44.5%

51.0%

6.5%

51

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Pct

Obama

Romney

Other

Pct

Obama

Romney

Other

CA

-38%

-9%

Reported

95.2%

43.6%

51.7%

8.1%

52

Dem

36%

89%

6%

2%

1%

Dem

32%

89%

6%

2%

1%

Dem

35%

92%

8%

-

Dem

38%

92%

8%

-

NY

-36%

22%

53

Rep

33%

5%

89%

3%

1%

Rep

28%

5%

89%

3%

1%

Rep

30%

7%

93%

-

Rep

32%

7%

93%

-

GA

8%

NC

Clinton

Trump

Margin

54

Ind

31%

33.8%

43.6%

8.0%

5.0%

Ind

40%

33.8%

43.6%

8.0%

5.0%

Ind

33%

45%

50%

5%

Ind

29%

45%

50%

5%

AZ

0%

8%

month

25%

33%

57%

24%

55

4.36%

Total

95.6%

44.2%

45.0%

4.2%

2.2%

5.04%

Total

95.0%

43.4%

44.3%

4.7%

2.6%

Total

98%

49.2%

47.2%

1.7%

Total

99.0%

50.3%

47.3%

1.5%

WA

-19%

-5%

before

72%

51%

47%

-4%

56

0.5

True Vote

100.0%

46.3%

47.2%

4.2%

2.2%

0.5

True Vote

100.0%

45.9%

46.8%

4.7%

2.6%

UT

16%

22%

calc

93.1%

45.0%

48.1%

3.1%

57

SC

14%

11%

Reported

96.0%

46.2%

49.8%

3.7%

58

2012

Pct

Trump

Clinton

Other

Trump share

28 EXIT POLLS

KY

36%

59

In the True Vote tables, the Party-ID was derived from the Gallup National Survey (40I-32D-28R)

Obama

51.1%

19%

75%

6%

9.7%

20%

Unadjusted EP

Reported

True Vote

OR

-16%

16%

NJ

Clinton

Trump

Margin

60

Unadjusted exit poll tables are based on the Clinton and Trump shares

Romney

47.2%

80%

8%

12%

37.8%

78%

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

Clinton

Trump

NM

-12%

4%

month

25%

50%

41%

-9%

61

Final reported exit poll tables from CNN closely match the recorded vote.

Other

1.7%

48%

46%

6%

0.8%

2%

54,509

47,761

54,330

49,598

48,553

52,310

IN

26%

19%

before

74%

55%

43%

-12%

62

Vote shares are identical in all of the tables except for exit poll shares of independents

Total

100%

48.29%

42.87%

8.84%

48.3%

100%

53.3%

46.7%

52.3%

47.7%

48.1%

51.9%

calc

95.3%

53.2%

42.1%

-11.1%

63

Clinton and Trump shares of Independents were adjusted to match the exit poll result

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/larry-sabato-20-trump-voters-former-obama-voters-video/

6.6%

4.6%

3.7%

Reported

96.0%

55.0%

41.0%

-14.0%

64

The Calc row is a check on the exit poll, reported and true vote.

6,748

margin

4,732

margin

3,758

margin

65

Discrep

Trump

66

Adjusted

Reported

2-party

Discrep

True Vote

2-party

Clinton

Trump

Margin

Reported

PA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

67

2-party

Clinton

Trump

Margin

2-party

Clinton

Trump

Margin

Adj

National

128,223

61,210

67,013

5,803

3,164

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Other

month

24%

43%

49%

6%

68

National

128,223

65,431

62,792

2,639

National

128,223

65,431

62,792

2,639

-

47.7%

52.3%

4.5%

2.5%

Dem

32%

74%

20%

6%

before

75%

47%

51%

4%

69

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

51.0%

49.0%

2.1%

-

Rep

28%

8%

88%

4%

calc

95.6%

45.6%

50.0%

4.4%

70

28 Unadj

102,270

48,553

52,310

3,758

-974

Ind

40%

48%

12%

Reported

96.4%

47.9%

48.6%

0.7%

71

28 Unadj

102,270

54,509

47,761

6,748

28 Unadj

102,270

54,330

49,598

4,732

2,016

48.1%

51.9%

3.7%

-2.5%

Total

100%

41.9%

50.2%

7.8%

72

53.3%

46.7%

6.6%

53.1%

46.9%

6.2%

0.4%

MI

Clinton

Trump

Margin

73

Other 23

25,953

12,657

14,703

2,046

4,138

month

26%

37%

52%

15%

74

Other 23

25,953

10,922

15,031

-4,109

Other 23

25,953

11,101

13,194

-2,093

-2,016

46.3%

53.7%

7.5%

21.9%

before

71%

50%

47%

-3%

75

42.1%

57.9%

-15.8%

42.8%

57.2%

-14.4%

-1.4%

calc

92.0%

45.1%

46.9%

1.8%

76

77

28 STATE EXIT POLLS, REPORTED VOTES AND TRUE VOTE CALCULATIONS

Reported

94.8%

47.3%

47.5%

0.2%

Trump

Margin

Trump

Margin chg

78

MATCH UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL (ADJUST SHARES OF INDEPENDENTS)

REPORTED EXIT POLL (MATCH RECORDED VOTE)

79

80

Party-ID

Input

Year

2016

AverageCalc

-6,275

-4,217

4,430

Rep-adj

True-Rep Vote

81

Trump

82

1

OH

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/ohio#president

OH

Share of Undecided

75%

Clinton

Trump

MO

Clinton

Trump

Margin

2,115

8,558

83

2012

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

OH

Pct

clinton

trump

other

2014 Census

44.44%

46.72%

month

29%

36%

52%

16%

84

38%

34%

Dem

34%

87%

12%

0%

1%

Dem

34%

87%

12%

0%

1%

Dem

32.4%

87%

12%

0%

1%

white

80%

33%

62%

5%

85.8%

before

70%

38%

59%

21%

85

31%

37%

Rep

37%

8%

89%

2%

1%

Rep

37%

8%

89%

2%

1%

Rep

33.4%

8%

89%

2%

1%

black

14%

88%

8%

4%

calc

93.4%

37.0%

56.4%

19.3%

86

31%

29%

Ind

29%

50%

35%

8%

7%

Ind

29%

38%

51%

8%

3%

Ind

34.2%

38%

51%

8%

3%

latino

3%

67%

26%

7%

Reported

94.9%

38.1%

56.8%

18.6%

87

Match

100%

47.0%

47.2%

3.1%

2.7%

Calc

100%

43.6%

51.8%

3.1%

1.6%

TVM1

100.0%

43.9%

51.1%

3.4%

1.7%

asian

1%

n/a

43.9%

51.1%

88

Unadj.EP

100%

47.0%

47.1%

3.2%

2.7%

Reported

99.3%

43.6%

51.7%

3.2%

0.8%

95.1%

75%

95.1%

41.6%

46.7%

4.4%

2.4%

other

2%

n/a

IA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

89

Votes

5,496

2,583

2,589

176

148

Votes

5,496

2,394

2,841

174

46

4.9%

TVM

100%

42.9%

50.4%

4.0%

2.8%

100.0%

40.7%

51.5%

4.8%

2,583

2,589

2,394

2,841

2,356

2,769

month

26%

35%

53%

18%

90

Margin

5

0.1%

Margin

447

8.1%

Votes

5,496

2,356

2,769

220

152

before

73%

47%

0%

5

447

413

441

-72

91

Margin

413

5.1%

calc

91.5%

43.4%

48.1%

4.7%

92

Reported

92.9%

41.7%

51.1%

9.4%

93

94

2

NC

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/north-carolina/president

NC

Gallup

FL

Clinton

Trump

Margin

95

2012

2016

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

NC

clinton

trump

other

month

26%

43%

50%

7%

96

39%

35%

Dem

35%

90%

8%

1%

Dem

35%

90%

8%

1%

Dem

32.9%

90%

8%

1%

white

70%

32%

63%

5%

73.30%

before

73%

49%

0%

97

33%

31%

Rep

31%

4%

94%

2%

0%

Rep

31%

4%

94%

2%

0%

Rep

24.2%

4%

94%

2%

0%

black

20%

89%

8%

3%

calc

95.7%

47.0%

48.8%

1.8%

98

28%

34%

Ind

34%

47%

43%

8%

2%

Ind

34%

39%

53%

8%

0%

Ind

42.9%

39%

53%

8%

0%

latino

5%

57%

40%

3%

Reported

96.8%

47.8%

49.0%

1.2%

99

Match

100%

48.7%

46.6%

3.7%

1.0%

Calc

100%

46.0%

50.0%

3.7%

0.4%

TVM1

100.0%

47.3%

48.1%

4.2%

0.3%

asian

1%

n/a

47.3%

48.1%

100

Unadjusted

100%

48.6%

46.5%

4.0%

0.9%

Reported

99.0%

46.2%

49.8%

2.7%

0.3%

94.4%

75%

94.4%

44.5%

42.3%

4.8%

2.7%

other

4%

55%

40%

5%

WI

Clinton

Trump

Margin

101

Votes

4,742

2,304

2,205

190

43

Votes

4,742

2,189

2,363

130

12

5.6%

TVM

100.0%

45.7%

46.6%

4.0%

3.7%

100.0%

45.3%

49.3%

4.5%

2,304

2,205

2,189

2,363

2,168

2,208

month

14%

30%

59%

29%

102

Margin

-100

-2.1%

Margin

173

3.7%

Votes

4,742

2,168

2,208

190

176

before

85%

49%

47%

-2%

-100

173

40

103

Margin

40

0.8%

calc

94.1%

45.9%

48.2%

2.4%

273

-133

104

Reported

93.7%

46.5%

47.2%

0.8%

105

106

3

NJ

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/new-jersey/president

NJ

Gallup

VA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

107

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

NJ

clinton

trump

other

month

23%

42%

48%

6%

108

44%

43%

Dem

43%

86%

12%

0%

2%

Dem

43%

86%

12%

0%

2%

Dem

25.8%

86%

12%

0%

2%

white

67%

42%

54%

4%

82.3%

before

76%

52%

44%

-8%

109

26%

27%

Rep

27%

10%

82%

7%

1%

Rep

27%

10%

82%

7%

1%

Rep

15.7%

10%

82%

7%

1%

black

14%

89%

9%

2%

17.7%

calc

93.7%

49.2%

44.5%

-4.7%

110

30%

Ind

30%

67%

28%

0%

5%

Ind

30%

51%

48%

0%

1%

Ind

58.5%

51%

48%

0%

1%

latino

14%

76%

23%

1%

Reported

94.2%

49.8%

44.4%

-5.3%

111

Match

100%

59.8%

35.7%

1.9%

2.6%

Calc

100%

55.0%

41.7%

1.9%

1.4%

TVM1

100.0%

53.6%

44.1%

1.1%

1.3%

asian

4%

n/a

53.6%

44.1%

112

Unadjusted

100%

59.8%

35.8%

3.0%

1.4%

Reported

98.8%

55.0%

41.0%

1.9%

1.0%

93.0%

75%

93.0%

42.8%

41.2%

5.7%

3.3%

other

1%

n/a

NV

Clinton

Trump

Margin

113

Votes

3,907

2,336

1,399

117

55

Votes

3,907

2,148

1,602

72

38

7.0%

TVM

100.0%

44.6%

46.4%

5.7%

3.3%

100.0%

51.2%

40.7%

3.1%

2,336

1,399

2,148

1,602

1,741

1,813

month

11%

45%

40%

-5%

114

Margin

-938

-24.0%

Margin

-546

-14.0%

Votes

3,907

1,741

1,813

221

131

before

88%

49%

44%

-5%

-938

-546

72

115

Margin

72

1.8%

calc

91.2%

48.1%

43.1%

-5.0%

391

618

116

Reported

93.4%

47.9%

45.5%

-2.4%

117

118

4

PA

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/pennsylvania/president

PA

Gallup

PA

NH

Clinton

Trump

Margin

119

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

89

clinton

trump

other

month

29%

42%

50%

8%

120

45%

41%

Dem

41%

90%

6%

1%

3%

Dem

41%

90%

6%

1%

3%

Dem

39.1%

90%

6%

1%

3%

white

81%

40%

56%

4%

before

71%

51%

45%

-6%

121

35%

39%

Rep

39%

8%

91%

1%

0%

Rep

39%

8%

91%

1%

0%

Rep

29.2%

8%

91%

1%

0%

black

10%

92%

7%

1%

calc

94.8%

48.4%

46.5%

-1.9%

122

20%

Ind

20%

53%

41%

5%

1%

Ind

20%

36%

53%

5%

6%

Ind

31.7%

36%

53%

5%

6%

latino

6%

74%

22%

4%

Reported

93.6%

47.0%

46.6%

-0.4%

123

Match

100%

50.6%

46.2%

1.8%

1.4%

Calc

100%

47.2%

48.6%

1.8%

2.4%

TVM1

100.0%

48.9%

45.7%

2.3%

3.1%

asian

1%

n/a

48.9%

45.7%

124

Unadjusted

100%

50.5%

46.1%

1.8%

1.6%

Reported

100%

47.9%

48.6%

2.4%

0.8%

95.3%

75%

95.3%

46.6%

42.3%

4.2%

2.3%

other

2%

n/a

MN

Clinton

Trump

Margin

125

Votes

5,950

3,005

2,743

107

95

Votes

6,115

2,926

2,971

147

50

4.7%

TVM

100.0%

47.8%

45.8%

4.2%

2.3%

100.0%

46.0%

47.4%

3.6%

3,005

2,743

2,926

2,971

2,841

2,724

month

29%

33%

51%

18%

126

Margin

-262

-4.4%

Margin

44

0.7%

Votes

5,950

2,841

2,724

250

135

before

71%

51%

41%

-10%

-262

44

-118

127

Margin

-118

-2.0%

calc

89.7%

45.8%

43.9%

-1.9%

306

-162

128

Reported

91.4%

46.4%

44.9%

-1.5%

129

130

5

MI

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/michigan

MI

Gallup

MI

ME

Clinton

Trump

Margin

131

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

96

clinton

trump

johnson

stein

other

month

31%

35%

51%

16%

132

40%

Dem

40%

88%

9%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

40%

88%

9%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

34.7%

88%

9%

2%

1%

0%

white

75%

36%

57%

5%

1%

before

69%

51%

43%

-8%

133

30%

31%

Rep

31%

7%

90%

2%

0%

1%

Rep

31%

7%

90%

2%

0%

1%

Rep

29.4%

7%

90%

2%

0%

1%

black

15%

92%

6%

0%

1%

calc

91.5%

46.0%

45.5%

-0.6%

134

30%

29%

Ind

29%

32%

53%

7%

3%

5%

Ind

29%

36%

52%

7%

3%

2%

Ind

35.9%

36%

52%

7%

3%

2%

latino

5%

59%

38%

2%

n/a

Reported

92.7%

47.8%

44.9%

-3.0%

135

Match

100%

46.7%

46.9%

3.5%

1.3%

2%

Calc

100%

47.8%

46.6%

3.5%

1.3%

0.9%

TVM1

100%

45.5%

48.3%

3.8%

1.4%

1.0%

asian

2%

n/a

45.5%

48.3%

136

Unadjusted

100%

46.8%

2.3%

1.3%

3%

Reported

100%

47.3%

47.5%

3.6%

1.1%

0.6%

75%

96.0%

44.1%

44.0%

4.4%

2.4%

1.0%

other

3%

n/a

CO

Clinton

Trump

Margin

137

Votes

4,799

2,246

110

61

136

Votes

4,799

2,269

2,280

172

51

27

4.0%

TVM

100%

45.1%

47.0%

4.4%

2.4%

1.0%

100.0%

43.8%

45.6%

3.9%

1.0%

0.9%

2,246

2,269

2,280

2,163

2,257

month

22%

37%

48%

11%

138

Margin

0.00

0.0%

Margin

11

0.2%

Votes

4,799

2,163

2,257

213

117

49

before

75%

52%

42%

-10%

0

11

94

139

Margin

94

2.0%

calc

89.2%

47.1%

42.1%

-5.1%

11

83

140

Reported

91.4%

48.2%

43.3%

-4.9%

141

142

6

MO

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/missouri/president

MO

Gallup

MO

TX

Clinton

Trump

Margin

143

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

87

clinton

trump

Other'

month

24%

46%

47%

1%

144

37%

34%

Dem

34%

84%

13%

1%

2%

Dem

34%

84%

13%

1%

2%

Dem

30.8%

84%

13%

1%

2%

white

79%

28%

66%

6%

before

74%

44%

51%

7%

145

35%

39%

Rep

39%

5%

92%

2%

1%

Rep

39%

5%

92%

2%

1%

Rep

35.0%

5%

92%

2%

1%

black

14%

90%

8%

2%

calc

92.6%

43.6%

49.0%

5.4%

146

28%

27%

Ind

27%

45%

40%

8%

7%

Ind

27%

28%

62%

8%

2%

Ind

34.2%

28%

62%

8%

2%

latino

4%

n/a

Reported

95.5%

43.2%

52.2%

9.0%

147

Match

100%

42.7%

51.1%

3.3%

3.0%

Calc

100.0%

38.1%

57.0%

3.3%

1.6%

TVM1

100.0%

37.2%

57.4%

3.7%

1.7%

asian

1%

n/a

37.2%

57.4%

148

Unadjusted

100%

42.8%

51.2%

3.3%

2.7%

Reported

99.3%

38.1%

56.8%

3.5%

0.9%

75%

95.1%

40.3%

48.0%

4.4%

2.4%

other

3%

n/a

GA

Clinton

Trump

Margin

149

Votes

2,809

1,202

1,438

93

76

Votes

2,809

1,071

1,595

97

25

4.9%

TVM

100%

41.5%

51.7%

4.4%

2.4%

101.0%

34.7%

53.3%

5.0%

1,202

1,438

1,071

1,595

1,167

1,452

month

20%

47%

55%

8%

150

Margin

236

8.4%

Margin

523

18.6%

Votes

2,809

1,167

1,452

124

67

before

79%

45%

53%

8%

236

523

285

151

Margin

285

10.2%

calc

97.8%

45.0%

52.9%

7.9%

288

-238

152

Reported

96.4%

45.6%

50.8%

5.1%

153

154

7

IA

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/iowa

IA

Gallup

IA

UT

Clinton

Trump

Margin

155

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

True Vote

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

96

clinton

trump

stein

johnson

Other

month

44%

17%

39%

22%

156

33%

31%

Dem

31%

88%

10%

1%

0%

Dem

31%

88%

10%

1%

0%

Dem

29.6%

88%

10%

1%

0%

white

90%

40%

54%

1%

3%

2%

before

54%

36%

52%

16%

157

33%

34%

Rep

34%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

34%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

29.0%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

black

2%

n/a

calc

73.0%

27.5%

45.5%

18.1%

158

34%

35%

Ind

35%

42%

41%

5%

3%

9%

Ind

35%

36%

50%

7%

1%

6%

Ind

41.4%

36%

50%

7%

1%

6%

latino

5%

63%

26%

6%

5%

n/a

Reported

73.0%

27.5%

45.5%

18.1%

159

Match

100%

44.0%

48.1%

3.1%

1.4%

3.5%

Calc

100%

41.9%

51.2%

3.8%

0.7%

2.4%

TVM1

100.0%

42.7%

49.8%

4.1%

0.7%

2.8%

asian

1%

n/a

42.7%

49.8%

160

Unadjusted

100%

44.1%

48.0%

1.8%

1.7%

4.4%

Reported

100%

41.7%

51.1%

3.8%

0.7%

2.6%

95.2%

75%

95.2%

39.4%

46.1%

5.3%

3.0%

1.5%

other

2%

n/a

SC

Clinton

Trump

Margin

161

Votes

1,566

691

752

28

27

69

Votes

1,566

654

801

59

11

41

4.8%

TVM

100%

40.6%

49.6%

5.3%

3.0%

1.5%

100.0%

39.2%

49.9%

1.2%

3.0%

1.8%

691

752

654

801

636

777

month

26%

39%

50%

11%

162

Margin

61

3.9%

Margin

147

9.4%

Votes

1,566

636

777

82

47

23

before

74%

42%

56%

14%

61

147

141

163

Margin

141

7.1%

calc

95.7%

41.2%

54.4%

13.2%

86

-6

164

Reported

95.6%

40.7%

54.9%

14.3%

165

166

8

FL

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president

FL

Gallup

FL

KY

Clinton

Trump

Margin

167

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

clinton

trump

other

month

28%

27%

63%

36%

168

35%

32%

Dem

32%

90%

8%

0%

1%

Dem

32%

90%

8%

0%

1%

Dem

37.0%

90%

8%

0%

1%

white

62%

32%

64%

4%

before

71%

31%

67%

36%

169

33%

Rep

33%

8%

89%

1%

Rep

33%

8%

89%

1%

Rep

31.7%

8%

89%

1%

black

14%

84%

8%

calc

94.8%

29.6%

65.2%

35.6%

170

33%

35%

Ind

35%

47%

42%

5%

2%

4%

Ind

35%

43%

47%

5%

2%

3%

Ind

31.3%

43%

47%

5%

2%

3%

latino

18%

62%

35%

3%

Reported

95.2%

32.7%

62.5%

29.8%

171

Match

100%

47.9%

46.6%

2.1%

1.4%

2.1%

Calc

100%

46.5%

48.4%

2.1%

1.4%

2%

TVM1

100%

49.3%

45.9%

1.9%

1.3%

1.6%

asian

2%

n/a

49.3%

45.9%

172

Unadjusted

100%

47.7%

46.4%

2.0%

1.3%

2.6%

Reported

100%

47.8%

49.0%

2.2%

0.7%

0.3%

75%

94.5%

42.2%

44.8%

4.8%

2.7%

1.6%

other

4%

58%

36%

6%

NM

Clinton

Trump

Margin

173

Votes

9,420

4,493

4,371

188

122

245

Votes

9,420

4,505

4,618

207

64

26

5.5%

TVM

100%

43.6%

48.9%

4.8%

2.7%

1.6%

100.0%

45.1%

48.5%

4.4%

4,493

4,371

4,505

4,618

4,105

4,609

month

28%

37%

41%

4%

174

Margin

-122

-1.3%

Margin

113

1.2%

Votes

9,420

4,105

4,609

452

254

153

before

70%

52%

40%

-12%

-122

113

504

175

Margin

504

5.4%

176

calc

86.2%

46.8%

39.5%

-7.3%

235

391

177

Reported

88.3%

48.3%

40.0%

-8.2%

178

9

WI

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/wisconsin

WI

Gallup

WI

179

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

clinton

trump

other

IN

Clinton

Trump

Margin

180

37%

35%

Dem

35%

91%

7%

1%

0%

Dem

35%

91%

7%

1%

0%

Dem

33.9%

91%

7%

1%

0%

white

86%

42%

53%

5%

month

29%

34%

53%

19%

181

32%

35%

Rep

35%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

35%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

32.6%

6%

90%

3%

0%

1%

black

7%

92%

6%

2%

before

71%

35%

61%

26%

182

31%

30%

Ind

30%

47%

34%

6%

2%

11%

Ind

30%

42%

46%

6%

2%

4%

Ind

33.5%

43%

46%

6%

2%

3%

latino

4%

63%

34%

3%

calc

93.4%

34.7%

58.7%

24.0%

183

Match

100%

48.1%

44.2%

3.2%

1.0%

3.7%

Calc

100%

46.6%

47.8%

3.2%

1.0%

1.6%

TVM1

100%

47.2%

47.1%

3.3%

1.0%

1.3%

asian

1%

n/a

47.2%

47.1%

Reported

94.7%

37.9%

56.8%

18.9%

184

Unadjusted

100%

48.2%

44.3%

2.0%

1.3%

4.2%

Reported

100%

46.5%

47.2%

3.6%

1.0%

1.7%

75%

96.5%

42.7%

45.7%

4.3%

2.3%

1.3%

other

2%

n/a

185

Votes

2,976

1,435

1,318

60

39

125

Votes

2,976

1,383

1,405

107

31

51

3.5%

TVM

100.0%

43.6%

48.4%

4.3%

2.3%

1.3%

100.0%

45.1%

47.4%

4.6%

1,435

1,318

1,383

1,405

1,298

1,440

AZ

Clinton

Trump

Margin

186

Margin

-116

-3.9%

Margin

23

0.8%

Votes

2,976

1,298

1,440

129

70

40

month

25%

40%

48%

8%

-116

23

141

187

Margin

141

2.99%

before

75%

48%

0%

139

119

188

calc

94.0%

46.0%

48.0%

2.0%

189

Reported

93.8%

45.1%

48.7%

3.5%

190

10

VA

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/virginia

VA

Gallup

VA

191

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

clinton

trump

other

192

39%

40%

Dem

40%

92%

6%

1%

0%

1%

Dem

40%

92%

6%

1%

0%

1%

Dem

31.6%

92%

6%

1%

0%

1%

white

67%

35%

59%

6%

193

32%

33%

Rep

33%

6%

88%

3%

0%

3%

Rep

33%

6%

88%

3%

0%

3%

Rep

33.4%

6%

88%

3%

0%

3%

black

21%

88%

9%

3%

194

29%

27%

Ind

27%

47%

44%

6%

2%

1%

Ind

27%

41%

48%

6%

2%

3%

Ind

35.0%

43%

48%

6%

2%

1%

latino

6%

65%

30%

5%

195

Match

100%

51.5%

43.3%

3.0%

0.5%

2%

Calc

100%

49.9%

44.4%

3.0%

0.5%

2.2%

TVM1

100.0%

46.1%

48.1%

3.4%

0.7%

1.7%

asian

3%

n/a

46.1%

48.1%

196

Unadjusted

100%

50.9%

43.2%

3.7%

0.5%

2%

Reported

100%

49.8%

44.4%

3.0%

0.7%

2.2%

75%

96.7%

41.2%

47.0%

4.4%

2.4%

1.7%

other

3%

n/a

197

Votes

3,983

2,027

1,721

147

22

66

Votes

3,983

1,981

1,769

118

28

86

3.3%

TVM

100.0%

42.0%

49.5%

4.4%

2.4%

1.7%

100.0%

45.8%

43.2%

5.0%

2,027

1,721

1,981

1,769

1,673

1,971

198

Margin

-307

-7.7%

Margin

-212

-5.3%

Votes

3,983

1,673

1,971

177

96

66

-307

-212

297

199

Margin

297

7.5%

95

509

200

201

202

11

NV

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/nevada/president

NV

Gallup

NV

203

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Other

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Other

204

38%

36%

Dem

36%

90%

8%

1%

Dem

36%

90%

8%

1%

Dem

31.3%

90%

8%

1%

white

62%

38%

56%

3%

2%

1%

205

28%

Rep

28%

8%

88%

2%

Rep

28%

8%

88%

2%

Rep

27.5%

8%

88%

2%

black

9%

81%

12%

1%

5%

1%

206

34%

36%

Ind

36%

39%

43%

7%

11%

Ind

36%

37%

50%

7%

6%

Ind

41.2%

37%

50%

6%

7%

latino

18%

60%

29%

5%

3%

207

Match

100%

48.7%

43.0%

3.4%

4.9%

Calc

100%

48.0%

45.5%

3.4%

3.1%

TVM1

100.0%

45.6%

47.3%

3.3%

3.7%

asian

6%

62%

36%

1%

n/a

45.6%

47.3%

208

Unadjusted

100%

48.7%

42.8%

3.7%

4.8%

Reported

100%

47.9%

45.5%

3.3%

75%

91.8%

42.7%

44.4%

4.7%

other

4%

46%

45%

3%

4%

2%

209

Votes

1,125

548

482

42

54

Votes

1,125

539

512

37

8.2%

TVM

100.0%

44.8%

50.6%

4.7%

0.0%

99.0%

47.2%

45.0%

3.0%

2.5%

1.3%

548

482

539

512

504

569

210

Margin

-66

-5.9%

Margin

-27

-2.4%

Votes

1,125

504

569

53

0

-66

-27

65

211

Margin

65

1.7%

39

92

212

213

214

12

NH

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-hampshire

NH

Gallup

NH

215

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Clinton

Trump

Other

216

30%

28%

Dem

28%

93%

5%

1%

Dem

28%

93%

5%

1%

Dem

21.5%

93%

5%

1%

white

92%

48%

4%

217

27%

28%

Rep

28%

7%

89%

3%

1%

Rep

28%

7%

89%

3%

1%

Rep

23.9%

7%

89%

3%

1%

black

1%

n/a

218

43%

44%

Ind

44%

49%

41%

7%

3%

Ind

44%

43%

46%

7%

4%

Ind

54.6%

45%

7%

3%

latino

4%

n/a

219

Match

100%

49.6%

44.4%

4.2%

2%

Calc

100%

46.9%

46.6%

4.2%

2.3%

TVM1

100.0%

46.2%

46.9%

4.8%

2.1%

asian

1%

n/a

46.2%

46.9%

220

Unadjusted

100%

49.4%

44.2%

3.7%

3%

Reported

100%

47.0%

46.6%

4.1%

2.3%

75%

93.4%

38.1%

46.6%

5.5%

3.2%

other

2%

n/a

221

Votes

742

366

328

27

20

Votes

742

349

346

31

6

6.6%

TVM

100.0%

39.8%

51.5%

5.5%

3.2%

100.0%

44.2%

3.7%

366

328

349

346

295

382

222

Margin

-39

-5.2%

Margin

-3

-0.4%

Votes

742

295

382

41

24

-39

-3

87

223

Margin

87

0.7%

36

90

224

225

226

13

MN

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/minnesota/president

MN

Gallup

MN

227

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

228

39%

37%

Dem

37%

87%

10%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

37%

87%

10%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

34.7%

87%

10%

2%

1%

0%

White

87%

43%

50%

7%

229

31%

35%

Rep

35%

7%

86%

3%

1%

3%

Rep

35%

7%

86%

3%

1%

3%

Rep

31.0%

7%

86%

3%

1%

3%

Non-white

13%

71%

22%

7%

230

30%

28%

Ind

28%

39%

43%

7%

3%

8%

Ind

28%

42%

40%

7%

3%

8%

Ind

34.3%

42%

40%

7%

3%

8%

231

Match

100%

45.6%

45.8%

3.8%

1.6%

3%

Calc

100%

46.4%

45.0%

3.8%

1.6%

3.3%

TVM1

100.0%

46.8%

43.8%

4.0%

1.7%

3.7%

46.8%

43.8%

232

Unadjusted

100%

45.7%

45.8%

3.7%

1.6%

3%

Reported

100%

46.4%

44.9%

3.8%

1.3%

3.5%

75%

98.7%

43.6%

44.7%

4.4%

2.4%

3.7%

233

Votes

2,945

1,346

1,349

109

46

95

Votes

2,945

1,368

1,323

113

37

104

1.3%

TVM

100.0%

43.9%

45.7%

4.4%

2.4%

3.7%

100.0%

46.6%

46.4%

7.0%

1,346

1,349

1,368

1,323

1,294

1,345

234

Margin

3

0.1%

Margin

-45

-1.5%

Votes

2,945

1,294

1,345

129

70

108

3

-45

51

235

Margin

51

1.7%

-48

95

236

237

238

14

ME

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/maine#president

ME

Gallup

ME

239

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

240

32%

31%

Dem

31%

90%

8%

1%

0%

Dem

32%

90%

8%

1%

Dem

25.2%

90%

8%

1%

White

93%

47%

46%

5%

2%

241

27%

30%

Rep

30%

7%

89%

4%

0%

Rep

27%

7%

89%

4%

0%

Rep

21.6%

7%

89%

4%

0%

Non-white

7%

56%

33%

10%

2%

242

41%

39%

Ind

39%

54%

28%

9%

4%

5%

Ind

41%

42%

45%

9%

4%

Ind

53.3%

46%

45%

9%

4%

100.0%

47.6%

45.1%

5.4%

2.0%

243

Match

100%

51.1%

40.1%

5.0%

1.9%

2%

Calc

100%

47.9%

45.0%

5.1%

2.0%

TVM1

102.1%

48.7%

45.2%

5.9%

2.4%

48.7%

45.2%

244

Unadjusted

100%

51.2%

40.2%

3.7%

2%

3%

Reported

100%

47.8%

44.9%

5.1%

1.9%

75%

93.5%

40.9%

44.1%

5.4%

3.1%

245

Votes

748

383

301

28

14

22

Votes

748

358

336

38

14

6.5%

TVM

100.0%

42.5%

49.0%

5.4%

3.1%

383

301

358

336

318

366

246

Margin

-82

-11.0%

Margin

-22

-3.0%

Votes

748

318

366

40

23

-82

-22

49

247

Margin

49

-3.5%

60

71

248

249

250

15

CO

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/colorado

CO

Gallup

CO

251

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

252

34%

32%

Dem

32%

87%

9%

1%

0%

3%

Dem

32%

87%

9%

1%

0%

3%

Dem

24.4%

87%

9%

1%

0%

3%

white

62%

38%

56%

3%

2%

1%

253

29%

24%

Rep

24%

8%

88%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

24%

8%

88%

3%

0%

1%

Rep

26.2%

8%

88%

3%

0%

1%

black

9%

81%

12%

1%

5%

1%

254

37%

44%

Ind

44%

38%

40%

9%

2%

11%

Ind

44%

42%

44%

9%

2%

3%

Ind

49.5%

42%

44%

9%

2%

3%

latino

18%

60%

29%

5%

3%

255

Match

100%

46.5%

41.6%

5.0%

0.9%

6%

Calc

100%

48.2%

43.4%

5.0%

0.9%

2.5%

TVM1

100.0%

44.1%

47.0%

5.5%

1.0%

2.4%

asian

6%

62%

36%

1%

n/a

44.1%

47.0%

256

Unadjusted

100%

46.5%

41.5%

4.9%

0.90%

6%

Reported

100%

48.2%

43.3%

5.2%

1.4%

2.0%

75%

95.8%

40.9%

44.1%

5.4%

3.1%

2.4%

other

4%

46%

45%

3%

4%

2%

257

Votes

2,780

1,293

1,154

136

25

172

Votes

2,780

1,339

1,202

144

38

56

4.2%

TVM

100.0%

41.9%

47.2%

5.4%

3.1%

2.4%

99.0%

47.2%

45.0%

3.0%

2.5%

1.3%

1,293

1,154

1,339

1,202

1,165

1,312

258

Margin

-139

-5.0%

Margin

-136

-4.9%

Votes

2,780

1,165

1,312

150

87

66

-139

-136

147

259

Margin

147

3.2%

3

284

260

261

262

16

TX

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/texas

TX

Gallup

TX

263

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

264

Dem

29%

93%

5%

1%

0%

Dem

29%

93%

5%

1%

0.0%

Dem

29.2%

93%

5%

1%

0.0%

white

57%

26%

69%

5%

265

Rep

38%

9%

88%

2%

0%

1%

Rep

38%

9%

88%

2%

0%

1.0%

Rep

32.6%

9%

88%

2%

0%

1.0%

black

11%

84%

11%

5%

266

Ind

33%

36%

51%

7%

2%

4%

Ind

33%

39%

52%

7%

2%

0.0%

Ind

38.2%

38%

52%

7%

2%

1.0%

latino

24%

61%

34%

5%

267

Match

100%

42.3%

51.7%

3.4%

1.0%

2%

Calc

100%

43.3%

52.1%

3.4%

1.0%

0.4%

TVM1

100.0%

44.6%

50.0%

3.6%

1.1%

0.7%

asian

5%

72%

26%

2%

44.6%

50.0%

268

Unadjusted

100%

42.3%

51.8%

4.9%

0.90%

0%

Reported

100%

43.2%

52.2%

3.2%

0.8%

0.6%

75%

95.5%

40.1%

47.5%

4.6%

2.5%

0.7%

other

3%

n/a

269

Votes

8,969

3,794

4,646

439

81

9.0

Votes

8,969

3,878

4,685

283

72

51

4.5%

TVM

100.0%

41.2%

50.9%

4.6%

2.5%

0.7%

100.0%

42.3%

50.0%

4.7%

3,794

4,646

3,878

4,685

3,696

4,569

270

Margin

852

9.5%

Margin

807

9.0%

Votes

8,969

3,696

4,569

414

227

64

852

807

873

271

Margin

873

7.5%

-45

66

272

273

274

17

IL

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/illinois/president

IL

Gallup

IL

275

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

276

44%

45%

Dem

45%

93%

5%

1%

0%

1%

Dem

45%

93%

5%

1%

0%

1%

Dem

37.1%

93%

5%

1%

0%

1%

White

68%

41%

52%

5%

2%

n/a

277

27%

30%

Rep

30%

8%

88%

3%

1%

0%

Rep

30%

8%

88%

3%

1%

0%

Rep

27.8%

8%

88%

3%

1%

0%

Non-white

32%

84%

13%

1%

278

28%

25%

Ind

25%

37%

39%

9%

4%

11%

Ind

25%

46%

40%

9%

4%

1%

Ind

35.1%

41%

40%

9%

4%

6%

100.0%

54.8%

39.5%

3.7%

1.7%

0.3%

279

Match

100%

53.5%

38.4%

3.6%

1.3%

3%

Calc

100%

55.8%

38.7%

3.6%

1.3%

0.7%

TVM1

100.0%

51.1%

40.4%

4.4%

1.7%

2.5%

51.1%

40.4%

280

Unadjusted

100%

53.6%

38.4%

4.9%

0.90%

2%

Reported

100%

55.8%

38.8%

3.8%

1.4%

0.2%

75%

97.5%

45.8%

42.4%

4.4%

2.4%

2.5%

281

Votes

5,536

2,968

2,126

271

50

122

Votes

5,536

3,091

2,146

210

77

13

2.5%

TVM

100.0%

46.5%

44.3%

4.4%

2.4%

2.5%

2,968

2,126

3,091

2,146

2,573

2,452

282

Margin

-842

-15.2%

Margin

-945

-17.1%

Votes

5,536

2,573

2,452

242

133

137

-842

-945

-121

283

Margin

-121

-3.5%

-103

824

284

5,536

2,830

2,235

242

93

137

285

TVM1

Margin

-594

10.7%

286

18

CA

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/california

CA

Gallup

CA

287

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

13228

288

44%

47%

Dem

47%

92%

5%

1%

Dem

47%

92%

5%

1%

Dem

34.2%

92%

5%

1%

White

48%

50%

45%

3%

1%

56.70%

48%

289

27%

23%

Rep

23%

13%

84%

2%

1%

0%

Rep

23%

13%

84%

2%

1%

0%

Rep

22.3%

13%

84%

2%

1%

0%

Black

6%

88%

9%

1%

3%

n/a

8%

6%

290

29%

30%

Ind

30%

46%

33%

7%

5%

9%

Ind

30%

52%

33%

7%

5%

3%

Ind

43.5%

50%

33%

7%

5%

Latino

31%

71%

24%

2%

1%

24%

31%

291

Match

100%

60.0%

31.6%

3.0%

2.2%

3%

Calc

100%

61.8%

31.6%

3.0%

2.2%

1.4%

TVM1

100%

56.1%

34.8%

3.8%

2.7%

2.5%

Asian

12%

70%

17%

6.0%

1.0%

10.3%

12%

56.1%

34.8%

292

Unadjusted

100%

60.0%

31.5%

2.0%

1.3%

5%

Reported

100%

61.7%

31.6%

3.4%

2.0%

1.3%

75%

14,182

7,957.7

4,934.8

543.6

388.6

357.0

Other

3%

n/a

293

Votes

14,182

8,509

4,467

284

184

737

Votes

14,182

8,754

4,484

479

279

187

3.2%

Margin

-3,023

21.3%

100.0%

59.7%

31.6%

2.8%

2.0%

0.9%

8,509

4,467

8,754

4,484

6,595

6,156

294

Margin

-4,042

-28.5%

Margin

-4,270

-30.1%

-4,042

-4,270

-439

295

Votes

14,182

6,595

6,156

685

389

357

96.8%

45.7%

41.0%

4.8%

2.7%

2.5%

-228

3,831

296

TVM1

Margin

-439

-4.7%

TVM

100.0%

46.5%

43.4%

4.8%

2.7%

2.5%

297

298

19

NY

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-york

NY

Gallup

NY

299

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Stein

300

50%

48%

Dem

48%

92%

7%

1%

Dem

48%

92%

7%

1%

Dem

39%

92%

7%

1%

white

65%

45%

51%

4%

301

27%

26%

Rep

26%

9%

89%

2%

Rep

26%

9%

89%

2%

Rep

19%

9%

89%

2%

black

21%

92%

6%

2%

302

23%

26%

Ind

26%

36%

51%

13%

Ind

26%

50%

40%

10%

Ind

42%

49%

40%

11%

latino

9%

74%

23%

3%

303

Match

100%

55.9%

39.8%

4.4%

Calc

100%

59.5%

36.9%

3.6%

TVM1

100%

58.2%

36.4%

5.4%

asian

2%

n/a

58.2%

36.4%

304

Unadjusted

100%

55.8%

39.8%

4.4%

Reported

100.0%

59.6%

36.7%

2.3%

1.4%

75%

91.6%

49.3%

37.7%

4.6%

other

3%

n/a

305

Votes

7,456

4,160

2,967

328

Votes

7456

4,441

2,739

171

105

8.40%

TVM

100.0%

51.4%

44.0%

4.6%

100.0%

55.2%

36.5%

3.3%

4,160

2,967

4,441

2,739

3,832

3,281

306

Margin

-1,193

-16.0%

Margin

-1,703

-22.8%

Votes

7,456

3,832

3,281

343

-1,193

-1,703

-552

307

Margin

-552

-11.6%

-510

1,151

308

309

310

20

GA

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/georgia/president

GA

Gallup

GA

311

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

312

Dem

34%

94%

5%

1.0%

Dem

34%

94%

5%

1.0%

Dem

30.8%

94%

5%

1%

white

60%

21%

75%

4%

n/a

313

Rep

36%

4%

94%

2.0%

Rep

36%

4%

94%

2.0%

Rep

34.2%

4%

94%

2%

black

30%

89%

9%

2%

n/a

314

Ind

30%

45%

42%

13.0%

Ind

30%

41%

51%

8.0%

Ind

35.0%

41%

51%

7%

latino

4%

67%

27%

6%

n/a

315

Match

100%

46.9%

48.1%

5.0%

Calc

100%

45.7%

50.8%

3.5%

TVM1

99%

44.7%

51.5%

3.8%

asian

3%

n/a

44.7%

51.5%

316

Unadjusted

100%

46.8%

48.2%

5.0%

Reported

99.5%

45.6%

50.8%

3.0%

75%

92.6%

40.5%

47.7%

4.4%

other

2%

n/a

317

Votes

4,115

1,926

1,983

206

Votes

4,115

1,878

2,089

125

7.38%

TVM

100.0%

42.4%

53.2%

4.4%

99.0%

42.0%

48.8%

3.2%

1,926

1,983

1,878

2,089

1,744

2,188

318

Margin

58

1.4%

Margin

211

5.1%

Votes

4,115

1,744

2,188

183

58

211

445

319

Margin

445

7.1%

154

234

320

321

322

21

AZ

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/arizona

AZ

Gallup

AZ

323

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

324

26%

28%

Dem

28%

89%

7%

3%

0

1%

Dem

28%

89%

7%

3%

0

1.0%

Dem

22.8%

89%

7%

3%

0

1.0%

white

75%

40%

54%

3%

1%

2%

325

35%

32%

Rep

32%

7%

88%

3%

0

2%

Rep

32%

7%

88%

3%

0

2.0%

Rep

27.4%

7%

88%

3%

0

2.0%

black

2%

n/a

326

39%

40%

Ind

40%

49%

45%

3%

2%

1%

Ind

40%

45%

47%

5%

2%

1.0%

Ind

49.8%

44%

47%

5%

2%

2.0%

latino

15%

61%

31%

5%

2%

1%

327

Match

100%

46.8%

48.1%

3.0%

0.8%

1%

Calc

100%

45.2%

48.9%

3.8%

0.8%

1.3%

TVM1

100%

44.1%

49.1%

3.8%

0.8%

2.2%

asian

2%

n/a

44.1%

49.1%

328

Unadjusted

100%

46.8%

48.2%

3.0%

0.8%

1%

Reported

100%

45.1%

48.7%

4.1%

1.3%

0.7%

75%

95.9%

37.9%

47.6%

5.3%

3.0%

2.2%

other

5%

n/a

329

Votes

2,573

1,204

1,240

77

21

31

Votes

2,573

1,161

1,252

106

34

19

4.07%

TVM

100%

38.9%

50.6%

5.3%

3.0%

2.2%

99.0%

39.2%

45.2%

3.0%

1.1%

1.7%

1,204

1,240

1,161

1,252

1,002

1,303

330

Margin

36

1.4%

Margin

91

3.5%

Votes

2,573

1,002

1,303

135

77

56

36

91

301

331

Margin

301

9.7%

55

210

332

333

334

22

WA

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/washington

WA

Gallup

WA

335

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

336

36%

34%

Dem

34%

91%

5%

1%

2%

Dem

34%

91%

5%

1%

2.0%

Dem

35.5%

91%

5%

1%

2.0%

White

81%

51%

40%

4%

1%

4%

337

23%

20%

Rep

20%

8%

85%

3%

0%

4%

Rep

20%

8%

85%

3%

0%

4.0%

Rep

35.8%

8%

85%

3%

0%

4.0%

Non-white

19%

61%

31%

5%

2%

1%

338

42%

46%

Ind

46%

41%

37%

15%

5%

2%

Ind

46%

48%

43%

7%

2%

0.0%

Ind

28.7%

48%

43%

7%

2%

0.0%

100.0%

52.9%

38.3%

4.2%

1.2%

3.4%

339

Match

100%

51.4%

35.7%

7.8%

2.6%

2.4%

Calc

100%

54.6%

38.5%

4.2%

1.3%

1.5%

TVM1

100%

49.0%

44.5%

4.2%

1.3%

1.1%

49.0%

44.5%

340

Unadjusted

100%

51.3%

35.8%

7.8%

2.6%

2.4%

Reported

100%

54.7%

38.4%

5.1%

1.8%

0.0%

75%

95.8%

42.8%

46.6%

4.1%

1.3%

1.1%

341

Votes

3,184

1,633

1,140

250

84

77

Votes

3184

1,743

1,222

161

58

0

4.21%

TVM

100%

43.8%

49.7%

4.1%

1.3%

1.1%

1,633

1,140

1,743

1,222

1,395

1,583

342

Margin

-493

-15.5%

Margin

-521

-16.4%

Votes

3,184

1,395

1,583

130

41

34

-493

-521

188

343

Margin

188

3.8%

-27

709

344

345

346

23

UT

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/utah

UT

Gallup

UT

347

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

McMull

Johnson

Stein

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

McMull

Johnson

Stein

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

McMull

Johnson

Stein

348

Dem

20%

79%

10%

8%

1%

2%

Dem

20%

79%

10%

8%

2%

1.0%

Dem

20.5%

79%

10%

8%

2%

1.0%

white

86%

23%

48%

23%

3%

1%

2%

349

Rep

45%

6%

64%

27%

2%

1%

Rep

45%

6%

64%

27%

2%

1.0%

Rep

46.9%

6%

64%

27%

2%

1.0%

black

1%

n/a

350

Ind

35%

39%

31%

22%

7%

1%

Ind

35%

26%

42%

22%

7%

3.0%

Ind

32.6%

27%

42%

22%

7%

2.0%

latino

9%

62%

24%

11%

2%

n/a

1%

351

Match

100%

32.2%

41.7%

21.5%

3.6%

1.2%

Calc

100%

27.6%

45.5%

21.5%

3.8%

1.7%

TVM1

100%

27.8%

45.8%

21.5%

3.8%

1.2%

asian

1%

n/a

27.8%

45.8%

352

Unadjusted

100%

32.4%

41.8%

21.5%

3.6%

0.8%

Reported

100%

27.5%

45.5%

22.7%

3.5%

0.8%

75%

97.1%

31.2%

57.3%

4.4%

2.3%

1.9%

other

3%

n/a

32.4%

41.8%

27.5%

45.5%

0

1

353

Votes

1,131

367

473

243

40

9

Votes

1,131

311

515

256

40

9

2.90%

TVM

100%

31.9%

59.5%

4.4%

2.3%

1.9%

100.0%

25.4%

43.4%

20.8%

2.8%

0.9%

1.8%

473

515

673

354

Margin

106

9.4%

Margin

205

18.1%

Votes

1,131

361

673

50

26

21

355

Margin

312

26.1%

98

107

356

357

358

24

SC

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/south-carolina

SC

Gallup

SC

359

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

360

Dem

27%

93%

4%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

27%

93%

4%

2%

1%

0.0%

Dem

30.8%

93%

4%

2%

1%

0.0%

White

74%

24%

70%

6%

361

Rep

46%

5%

92%

2%

0%

1%

Rep

46%

5%

92%

2%

0%

1.0%

Rep

35.0%

5%

92%

2%

0%

1.0%

Non-white

26%

86%

12%

2%

362

Ind

27%

57%

26%

6%

2%

9%

Ind

27%

49%

43%

6%

2%

0.0%

Ind

34.2%

46%

43%

6%

2%

3.0%

100.0%

40.1%

54.9%

5.0%

363

Match

100%

42.8%

50.4%

3.1%

0.8%

2.9%

Calc

100%

40.6%

55.0%

3.1%

0.8%

0.5%

TVM1

100%

46.1%

48.1%

3.1%

0.8%

1.8%

46.1%

48.1%

364

Unadjusted

100%

42.8%

50.3%

3.1%

0.8%

3.0%

Reported

100%

40.7%

54.9%

2.3%

0.6%

1.4%

75%

96.9%

40.3%

48.0%

4.4%

2.4%

1.8%

365

Votes

2,103

900

1,058

65

17

63

Votes

2,103

855

1,155

49

13

30

3.06%

TVM

100%

41.1%

50.3%

4.4%

2.4%

1.8%

900

1,058

855

1,155

864

1,058

366

Margin

158

7.5%

Margin

300

14.3%

Votes

2,103

864

1,058

93

50

39

158

300

194

367

Margin

194

7.7%

142

-106

368

369

370

25

KY

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/kentucky

KY

Gallup

KY

371

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

372

Dem

38%

75%

22%

2%

1%

0%

Dem

38%

75%

22%

2%

1%

0.0%

Dem

32.0%

75%

22%

2%

1%

0.0%

White

88%

27%

68%

5%

373

Rep

44%

3%

93%

1%

0%

3%

Rep

44%

3%

93%

1%

0%

3.0%

Rep

28.0%

3%

93%

1%

0%

3.0%

Non-white

12%

73%

20%

7%

374

Ind

18%

29%

68%

2%

1%

0%

Ind

18%

17%

73%

5%

3%

2.0%

Ind

40.0%

23%

73%

5%

3%

-4.0%

100.0%

32.5%

62.2%

5.2%

375

Match

100%

35.0%

61.5%

1.6%

0.6%

1%

Calc

100%

32.9%

62.4%

2.1%

0.9%

1.7%

TVM1

100%

34.0%

62.3%

2.1%

0.9%

0.7%

34.0%

62.3%

376

Unadjusted

100%

35.0%

61.5%

1.6%

0.6%

1%

Reported

100%

32.7%

62.5%

2.8%

0.7%

1.3%

75%

95.6%

36.0%

53.0%

3.9%

2.0%

0.7%

377

Votes

1,924

673

1,183

30

11

27

Votes

1,924

629

1,203

54

14

25

4.44%

TVM

100%

37.1%

56.3%

3.9%

2.0%

0.7%

673

1,183

629

1,203

714

1,084

378

Margin

510

26.5%

Margin

574

29.8%

Votes

1,924

714

1,084

75

38

13

510

574

370

379

Margin

370

19.2%

64

-204

380

381

382

26

OR

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/oregon

OR

Gallup

OR

383

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

384

36%

33%

Dem

33%

92%

4%

1%

2%

Dem

33%

92%

4%

1%

2.0%

Dem

29.8%

92%

4%

1%

2.0%

White

82%

49%

42%

5%

1%

3%

385

27%

23%

Rep

23%

7%

87%

5%

0%

1%

Rep

23%

7%

87%

5%

0%

1.0%

Rep

23.8%

7%

87%

5%

0%

1.0%

Non-white

18%

62%

24%

2%

5%

7%

386

36%

44%

Ind

44%

43%

40%

7%

4%

6%

Ind

44%

41%

40%

7%

4%

8.0%

Ind

46.4%

43%

40%

7%

4%

6.0%

100.0%

51.3%

38.8%

4.5%

1.7%

3.7%

387

Match

100%

50.9%

38.9%

4.6%

2.1%

4%

Calc

100%

50.0%

38.9%

4.6%

2.1%

4.4%

TVM1

100%

49.1%

40.4%

4.6%

2.1%

3.9%

49.1%

40.4%

388

Unadjusted

100%

50.7%

38.8%

4.6%

2.1%

4%

Reported

100%

50.1%

39.1%

4.7%

2.5%

3.6%

75%

97.9%

42.9%

43.3%

5.0%

2.9%

3.9%

389

Votes

2,001

1,015

777

91

42

77

Votes

2,001

1,002

782

94

50

73

2.07%

TVM

100%

43.4%

44.9%

5.0%

2.9%

3.9%

1,015

777

1,002

782

868

898

390

Margin

-238

-11.9%

Margin

-220

-11.0%

Votes

2,001

868

898

100

57

77

-238

-220

30

391

Margin

30

1.5%

18

249

392

393

394

27

NM

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/new-mexico

NM

Gallup

NM

395

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

396

42%

41%

Dem

41%

85%

8%

6%

1%

0%

Dem

41%

85%

8%

6%

1%

0.0%

Dem

36.8%

85%

8%

6%

1%

0.0%

white

49%

42%

47%

8%

2%

1%

397

30%

27%

Rep

27%

6%

86%

6%

1%

Rep

27%

6%

86%

6%

1%

1.0%

Rep

24.8%

6%

86%

6%

1%

1.0%

black

1%

n/a

398

28%

32%

Ind

32%

36%

35%

16%

2%

11%

Ind

32%

37%

42%

16%

2%

3.0%

Ind

38.4%

37%

42%

16%

2%

3.0%

latino

40%

54%

33%

11%

1%

399

Match

100%

48.0%

37.7%

9.2%

1.3%

4%

Calc

100%

48.3%

39.9%

9.2%

1.3%

1.2%

TVM1

100%

47.0%

40.4%

9.2%

1.3%

2.1%

asian

1%

n/a

47.0%

40.4%

400

Unadjusted

100%

47.9%

37.8%

9.2%

1.3%

4%

Reported

100%

48.3%

40.0%

9.3%

1.2%

1.1%

75%

96.8%

42.8%

46.6%

4.1%

1.3%

2.1%

other

9%

53%

33%

12%

0%

2%

401

Votes

798

382

302

73

11

30

Votes

798

385

320

75

10

9

3.18%

TVM

100%

43.6%

49.0%

4.1%

1.3%

2.1%

100.0%

47.0%

39.2%

9.4%

1.4%

1.1%

382

302

385

320

348

391

402

Margin

-81

-10.1%

Margin

-66

-8.2%

Votes

798

348

391

33

10

17

-81

-66

43

403

Margin

43

5.4%

15

109

404

405

406

28

IN

http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/indiana/president

IN

Gallup

IN

407

Exit Poll

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Reported

Pct

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Other

TRUE

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

408

34%

30%

Dem

34%

84%

13%

3%

Dem

34%

84%

13%

3%

Dem

29.2%

84%

13%

3%

White

83%

32%

64%

5%

409

39%

42%

Rep

39%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

39%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

35.0%

6%

92%

2%

Non-white

17%

69%

27%

5%

410

27%

28%

Ind

27%

32%

50%

18%

Ind

27%

25%

61%

11%

Ind

35.8%

36%

61%

11%

100.0%

38.3%

57.7%

5.0%

411

Match

237%

39.5%

53.8%

6.7%

Calc

99%

37.7%

56.8%

4.8%

TVM1

100%

39.4%

48.6%

12.0%

39.4%

48.6%

412

Unadjusted

100%

39.6%

53.9%

6.5%

Reported

99.6%

37.9%

56.8%

4.9%

75%

96.2%

42.8%

46.6%

6.9%

413

Votes

2,741

1,085

1,477

27.1%

Votes

2,741

1,039

1,557

134

8

3.77%

TVM

100%

43.7%

49.4%

6.9%

1,085

1,477

1,039

1,557

1,198

1,354

414

Margin

392

14.3%

Margin

518

18.9%

Votes

2,741

1,198

1,354

189

392

518

156

415

Margin

156

5.7%

126

-362

416

417

28 STATES EXIT POLLED: ELECTORAL VOTE AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARES

418

419

Unadjust Exit Poll

Reported Vote

True Vote Model 1

True Vote Model 2

75%

undecided to Trump

Unadju EP Share of Ind

4.50%

420

EV

Votes

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

421

Total

411

110,702

49.6%

43.6%

159

49.3%

45.2%

224

48.1%

45.2%

197

44.2%

47.9%

268

43.8%

41.4%

422

Unadj

Reported

423

OH

18

5,496

47.0%

47.1%

18

43.6%

51.7%

18

43.9%

51.1%

18

42.9%

50.4%

18

OH

0.1%

8.1%

50%

35%

424

NC

15

4,742

48.6%

46.5%

46.2%

49.8%

15

47.3%

48.1%

15

45.7%

46.6%

15

NC

-2.1%

3.7%

47%

43%

425

NJ

14

3,907

59.8%

35.8%

55.0%

41.0%

53.6%

44.1%

44.6%

46.4%

14

NJ

-24.0%

-14.0%

67%

28%

426

PA

20

5,950

50.5%

46.1%

47.9%

48.6%

20

48.9%

45.7%

47.8%

45.8%

PA

-4.4%

0.7%

53%

41%

427

MI

16

4,799

46.8%

16

47.3%

47.5%

16

45.5%

48.3%

16

45.1%

47.0%

16

MI

0.0%

0.2%

32%

53%

428

MO

10

2,809

42.8%

51.2%

10

38.1%

56.8%

10

37.2%

57.4%

10

41.5%

51.7%

10

MO

8.4%

18.6%

45%

40%

429

IA

6

1,566

44.1%

48.0%

6

41.7%

51.1%

6

42.7%

49.8%

6

40.6%

49.6%

6

IA

3.9%

9.4%

42%

41%

430

FL

29

9,420

47.7%

46.4%

47.8%

49.0%

29

49.3%

45.9%

43.6%

48.9%

29

FL

-1.3%

1.2%

47%

42%

431

WI

10

2,976

48.2%

44.3%

46.5%

47.2%

10

47.2%

47.1%

43.6%

48.4%

10

WI

-3.9%

0.8%

47%

34%

432

VA

13

3,983

50.9%

43.2%

49.8%

44.4%

46.1%

48.1%

13

42.0%

49.5%

13

VA

-7.7%

-5.3%

47%

44%

433

NV

6

1,125

48.7%

42.8%

47.9%

45.5%

45.6%

47.3%

6

44.8%

50.6%

6

NV

-5.9%

-2.4%

39%

43%

434

NH

4

742

49.4%

44.2%

47.0%

46.6%

46.2%

46.9%

4

39.8%

51.5%

4

NH

-5.2%

-0.4%

49%

41%

435

MN

10

2,945

45.7%

45.8%

10

46.4%

44.9%

46.8%

43.8%

43.9%

45.7%

10

MN

0.1%

-1.5%

39%

43%

436

ME

4

748

51.2%

40.2%

47.8%

44.9%

1

48.7%

45.2%

1

42.5%

49.0%

4

ME

-11.0%

-3.0%

54%

28%

437

CO

9

2,780

46.5%

41.5%

48.2%

43.3%

44.1%

47.0%

9

41.9%

47.2%

9

CO

-5.0%

-4.9%

38%

40%

438

TX

38

8,969

42.3%

51.8%

38

43.2%

52.2%

38

44.6%

50.0%

38

41.2%

50.9%

38

TX

9.5%

9.0%

36%

51%

439

IL

20

5,536

53.6%

38.4%

55.8%

38.8%

51.1%

40.4%

46.5%

44.3%

IL

-15.2%

-17.1%

37%

39%

440

CA

55

14,182

60.0%

31.5%

61.7%

31.6%

56.1%

34.8%

46.5%

43.4%

CA

-28.5%

-30.1%

46%

33%

441

NY

29

7,456

55.8%

39.8%

59.6%

36.7%

58.2%

36.4%

51.4%

44.0%

NY

-16.0%

-22.8%

36%

51%

442

GA

16

4,115

46.8%

48.2%

16

45.6%

50.8%

16

44.7%

51.5%

16

42.4%

53.2%

16

GA

1.4%

5.1%

45%

42%

443

AZ

11

2,573

46.8%

48.2%

11

45.1%

48.7%

11

44.1%

49.1%

11

38.9%

50.6%

11

AZ

1.4%

3.5%

49%

45%

444

WA

12

3,184

51.3%

35.8%

54.7%

38.4%

49.0%

44.5%

43.8%

49.7%

?

WA

-15.5%

-16.4%

41%

37%

445

UT

6

1,131

32.4%

41.8%

6

27.5%

45.5%

6

27.8%

45.8%

6

31.9%

59.5%

6

UT

9.4%

18.1%

39%

31%

446

SC

9

2,103

42.8%

50.3%

9

40.7%

54.9%

9

46.1%

48.1%

9

41.1%

50.3%

9

SC

7.5%

14.3%

57%

26%

447

KY

8

1,924

35.0%

61.5%

8

32.7%

62.5%

8

34.0%

62.3%

8

37.1%

56.3%

8

KY

26.5%

29.8%

29%

68%

448

OR

7

2,001

50.7%

38.8%

50.1%

39.1%

49.1%

40.4%

43.4%

44.9%

?

OR

-11.9%

-11.0%

43%

40%

449

NM

5

798

47.9%

37.8%

48.3%

40.0%

47.0%

40.4%

43.6%

49.0%

5

NM

-10.1%

-8.2%

36%

35%

450

IN

11

2,741

39.6%

53.9%

11

37.9%

56.8%

11

39.4%

48.6%

11

43.7%

49.4%

11

IN

14.3%

18.9%

32%

50%

451

452

453

23 STATES NOT EXIT POLLED: ELECTORAL VOTE AND WEIGHTED AVERAGE SHARES

454

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016

455

456

Reported

EV

Votes

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

Other

457

Total

127

25,350

43.71%

50.40%

82

25,350

11,079

12,777

855

264

373

458

43.7%

50.4%

3.4%

1.0%

1.5%

459

TN

11

2,508

34.7%

60.7%

11

2,508

871

1,523

70

16

28

460

AL

9

2,123

34.4%

62.1%

9

2,123

730

1,318

44

9

22

461

OK

7

1,453

28.9%

65.3%

7

1,453

420

949

83

0

462

LA

8

2,029

38.4%

58.1%

8

2,029

780

1,179

38

14

18

463

AR

6

1,131

33.7%

60.6%

6

1,131

380

685

30

9

26

464

WV

5

713

26.5%

68.6%

5

713

189

489

23

8

4

465

KS

6

1,184

36.1%

56.7%

6

1,184

427

671

55

24

7

466

ID

4

690

27.5%

59.3%

4

690

190

409

28

8

55

467

MS

6

1,209

40.1%

57.9%

6

1,209

485

701

14

4

5

468

NE

5

844

33.7%

58.7%

5

844

284

496

39

9

16

469

ND

3

344

27.2%

63.0%

3

344

94

217

21

4

9

470

WY

3

256

21.9%

68.2%

3

256

56

174

13

3

10

471

SD

3

370

31.7%

61.5%

3

370

117

228

21

0

4

472

MT

3

497

35.7%

56.2%

3

497

178

279

28

8

4

473

AK

3

319

36.6%

51.3%

3

319

116

163

19

6

14

474

DE

3

442

53.4%

41.9%

442

236

185

15

6

0

475

RI

4

414

54.8%

40.2%

414

227

166

15

6

0

476

VT

3

320

55.7%

29.8%

320

179

95

10

7

30

477

HI

4

438

61.0%

29.4%

438

267

129

16

13

478

CT

7

1,645

54.6%

40.9%

1,645

898

673

49

23

3

479

DC

3

313

90.5%

4.1%

313

283

13

5

4

8

480

MD

10

2,781

60.3%

33.9%

2,781

1,678

943

80

36

45

481

MA

11

3,325

60.0%

32.8%

3,325

1,995

1,091

138

48

53

482

483

Forecast

Trump

484

Exit Poll Party-ID

Gallup Party-ID

Undecided

50%

Undecided

60%

Undecided

75%

485

Unadjust Exit Poll

Reported Vote

True Vote Model 1

True Vote Model 2

Forecast

True Vote Model 2

486

EV

Votes

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

Clinton

Trump

EV

487

Total

538

136,051

65,955

61,011

241

65,640

62,810

306

64,382

62,838

279

61,410

64,629

306

60,873

65,170

321

60,335

65,169

350

488

48.5%

44.8%

48.2%

46.2%

47.3%

46.2%

45.1%

47.5%

44.7%

47.9%

44.3%

48.3%

489

28exitp

411

110,702

49.6%

43.6%

159

49.3%

45.2%

224

48.1%

45.2%

197

45.5%

46.8%

224

45.0%

47.3%

239

44.3%

48.1%

268

490

23 other

127

25,350

43.7%

50.4%

82

43.7%

50.4%

82

43.7%

50.4%

82

43.7%

50.4%

82

43.7%

50.4%

82

43.7%

50.4%

82

491

492

Model

Trump EV

493

Unadj EP

241

494

Reported

306

495

TVM1

279

496

TVM2-50%

306

497

TVM2-60%

321

498

TVM2-70%

350

499

500

501

502

23 states not exit polled

503

504

TN

Gallup

AL

Gallup

OK

Gallup

505

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

506

Dem

27.6%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

27.6%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

34.5%

66%

30%

4%

507

Rep

37.4%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

39.0%

5%

92%

3%

Rep

34.7%

4%

95%

1%

508

Ind

35.0%

23%

69%

8%

Ind

33.4%

23%

72%

5%

Ind

30.8%

15%

72%

13%

509

Calc

100.0%

34.9%

60.7%

4.4%

Calc

100.0%

34.2%

62.1%

3.7%

Calc

100.0%

28.8%

65.5%

5.7%

510

Reported

100.0%

34.7%

60.7%

4.6%

Reported'

100.0%

34.4%

62.1%

3.6%

Reported'

100.0%

28.9%

65.3%

5.7%

511

Votes

2,508

875

1,523

110

Votes

2,123

727

1,319

78

Votes

1,453

418

952

83

512

Margin

649

25.9%

Margin

592

27.9%

Margin

533

36.7%

513

514

515

LA

Gallup

AR

Gallup

WV

Gallup

516

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

517

Dem

21.4%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

29.2%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

39.0%

51%

48%

1%

518

Rep

22.0%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

35.0%

5%

94%

1%

Rep

23.0%

4%

95%

1%

519

Ind

56.6%

32%

64%

4%

Ind

35.8%

17%

71%

12%

Ind

38.0%

15%

74%

11%

520

Calc

100.0%

38.5%

58.2%

3.3%

Calc

100.0%

33.8%

60.6%

5.5%

Calc

100.0%

26.5%

68.7%

4.8%

521

Reported

100.0%

38.4%

58.1%

3.5%

Reported'

100.0%

33.7%

60.6%

5.8%

Reported'

100.0%

26.5%

68.6%

4.9%

522

Votes

2,029

781

1,181

68

Votes

1,131

383

686

62

Votes

713

189

490

34

523

Margin

400

19.7%

Margin

303

26.8%

Margin

301

42.2%

524

525

526

KS

Gallup

ID

Gallup

MS

Gallup

527

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

528

Dem

19.5%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

21.3%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

30.0%

89%

8%

3%

529

Rep

35.1%

6%

93%

1%

Rep

41.3%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

36.6%

6%

92%

2%

530

Ind

45.4%

37%

50%

13%

Ind

37.4%

16%

53%

31%

Ind

33.4%

33%

66%

1%

531

Calc

100.0%

36.3%

56.9%

6.9%

Calc

100.0%

27.4%

59.5%

13.0%

Calc

100.0%

39.9%

58.1%

2.0%

532

Reported

100.0%

36.1%

56.7%

7.3%

Reported'

100.0%

27.5%

59.3%

13.2%

Reported'

100.0%

40.1%

57.9%

1.9%

533

Votes

1,184

429

674

81

Votes

690

189

411

90

Votes

1,209

483

703

24

534

Margin

244

20.6%

Margin

222

32.1%

Margin

220

18.2%

535

536

537

NE

Gallup

ND

Gallup

WY

Gallup

538

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

539

Dem

24.4%

89%

8%

3%

Dem

28.4%

73%

18%

9%

Dem

15.6%

89%

6%

5%

540

Rep

38.4%

6%

91%

3%

Rep

37.4%

4%

95%

1%

Rep

53.0%

4%

94%

2%

541

Ind

37.2%

26%

59%

15%

Ind

34.2%

15%

65%

20%

Ind

31.3%

18%

56%

26%

542

Calc

100.0%

33.7%

58.8%

7.5%

Calc

100.0%

27.4%

62.9%

9.8%

Calc

100.0%

21.7%

68.3%

10.0%

543

Reported

100.0%

33.7%

58.7%

7.6%

Reported'

100.0%

27.2%

63.0%

9.8%

Reported'

100.0%

21.9%

68.2%

10.0%

544

Votes

844

284

497

63

Votes

344

94

216

34

Votes

256

55

175

26

545

Margin

212

25.2%

Margin

122

35.5%

Margin

119

46.7%

546

547

548

SD

Gallup

MT

Gallup

AK

Gallup

549

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

550

Dem

26.7%

85%

13%

2%

Dem

26.1%

86%

12%

2%

Dem

10.1%

90%

6%

4%

551

Rep

36.7%

4%

93%

3%

Rep

40.6%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

21.2%

4%

94%

2%

552

Ind

36.6%

21%

64%

15%

Ind

33.4%

32%

47%

21%

Ind

68.7%

39%

45%

16%

553

Calc

100.0%

31.8%

61.0%

7.1%

Calc

100.0%

35.5%

56.1%

8.3%

Calc

100.0%

36.7%

51.5%

11.8%

554

Reported

100.0%

31.7%

61.5%

6.7%

Reported'

100.0%

35.7%

56.2%

8.1%

Reported'

100.0%

36.6%

51.3%

12.2%

555

Votes

370

118

226

26

Votes

497

177

279

41

Votes

319

117

164

38

556

Margin

108

29.2%

Margin

102

20.6%

Margin

47

14.7%

557

558

559

DE

Gallup

RI

Gallup

VT

Gallup

560

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

561

Dem

37.5%

92%

4%

Dem

32.8%

94%

4%

2%

Dem

37.1%

95%

4%

1%

562

Rep

22.3%

8%

88%

4%

Rep

8.7%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

24.7%

8%

90%

2%

563

Ind

40.3%

43%

52%

5%

Ind

58.6%

40%

53%

7%

Ind

38.3%

48%

16%

36%

564

Calc

100.0%

53.6%

42.0%

4.4%

Calc

100.0%

54.7%

40.3%

4.9%

Calc

100.0%

55.6%

29.8%

14.6%

565

Reported

100.0%

53.4%

41.9%

4.7%

Reported'

100.0%

54.8%

40.2%

5.0%

Reported'

100.0%

55.7%

29.8%

14.5%

566

Votes

442

237

186

19

Votes

414

227

167

20

Votes

320

178

95

47

567

Margin

-51

-11.6%

Margin

-60

-14.4%

Margin

-83

-25.8%

568

569

570

HI

Gallup

CT

Gallup

DC

Gallup

571

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

572

Dem

38.7%

95%

3%

2%

Dem

28.7%

94%

4%

2%

Dem

63.1%

97%

1%

2%

573

Rep

27.8%

12%

75%

13%

Rep

16.5%

6%

92%

2%

Rep

8.0%

36%

40%

24%

574

Ind

33.5%

63%

22%

15%

Ind

54.7%

49%

45%

6%

Ind

28.9%

91%

1%

8%

575

Calc

100.0%

61.2%

29.4%

9.4%

Calc

100.0%

54.8%

41.0%

4.2%

Calc

100.0%

90.4%

4.1%

5.5%

576

Reported

100.0%

61.0%

29.4%

9.6%

Reported'

100.0%

54.6%

40.9%

4.5%

Reported'

100.0%

90.5%

4.1%

5.4%

577

Votes

438

268

129

41

Votes

1,645

902

674

69

Votes

313

283

13

17

578

Margin

-139

-31.8%

Margin

-227

-13.8%

Margin

-270

-86.3%

579

580

581

MD

Gallup

MA

Gallup

582

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

Adj

Clinton

Trump

Other

583

Dem

43.3%

94%

4%

2%

Dem

27.9%

94%

4%

2%

584

Rep

20.4%

8%

88%

4%

Rep

8.7%

6%

92%

2%

585

Ind

36.2%

49%

39%

12%

Ind

63.5%

53%

37%

10%

586

Calc

100.0%

60.1%

33.8%

6.0%

Calc

100.0%

60.3%

32.6%

7.1%

587

Reported

100.0%

60.3%

33.9%

5.8%

Reported'

100.0%

60.0%

32.8%

7.2%

588

Votes

2,781

1,672

941

168

Votes

3,325

2,007

1,083

235

589

Margin

-731

-26.3%

Margin

-923

-27.8%

590

591

Gallup

Trump

Votes

592

Trump

Ind

% Ind

Wtdavg

Clinton

593

50.4%

43.0%

54.5%

43.7%

594

50.5%

40.9%

51.8%

25,350

42.5%

595

Trump%

Indep%

Trump %Ind

Votes

Clinton

596

TN

61%

35%

69%

2,508

34.7%

597

AL

62%

33%

72%

2,123

34.4%

598

OK

65%

31%

72%

1,453

28.9%

599

LA

58%

57%

64%

2,029

38.4%

600

AR

61%

36%

71%

1,131

33.7%

601

WV

69%

38%

74%

713

26.5%

602

KS

57%

45%

50%

1,184

36.1%

603

ID

59%

37%

53%

690

27.5%

604

MS

58%

33%

66%

1,209

40.1%

605

NE

59%

37%

59%

844

33.7%

606

ND

63%

34%

65%

344

27.2%

607

WY

68%

31%

56%

256

21.9%

608

SD

62%

37%

64%

370

31.7%

609

MT

56%

33%

47%

497

35.7%

610

AK

51%

69%

45%

319

36.6%

611

DE

42%

40%

52%

442

53.4%

612

RI

40%

59%

53%

414

54.8%

613

VT

30%

38%

16%

320

55.7%

614

HI

29%

34%

22%

438

61.0%

615

CT

41%

55%

45%

1,645

54.6%

616

DC

4%

29%

1%

313

90.5%

617

MD

34%

36%

39%

2,781

60.3%

618

MA

33%

63%

37%

3,325

60.0%


1													1992
2
3										Unadjusted National Exit Poll
4											Sample	Clinton	Bush	Other
5											15,236	7,056	5,100	3,080
6												46.31%	33.47%	20.22%		131 EV Flip to Bush
7				96.13%	True Vote Model					96.13%						88.16%	Final National Exit Poll					Voter
8			1988	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Bush	Other	1988	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Bush	Other		Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Bush	Other	Alive	Turnout
9			DNV	20,496	18%	46%	25%	29%	DNV	20,496	18%	46%	25%	29%		18,797	18%	46%	25%	29%	-	-
10			Dukakis	45,546	40%	83%	5%	12%	Dukakis	40,992	36%	83%	5%	12%		29,240	28%	83%	5%	12%	39,705	74%
11			Bush	46,685	41%	21%	59%	20%	Bush	51,240	45%	21%	59%	20%		55,346	53%	21%	59%	20%	46,440	119%
12			Other	1,139	1%	32%	30%	38%	Other	1,139	1%	32%	30%	38%		1,044	1%	32%	30%	38%	870	120%
13
14				113,866	100%	50.41%	30.99%	18.60%		113,866	100%	47.93%	33.15%	18.92%		104,427	100%	43.01%	37.46%	19.53%	87,015	97%
15						57,400	35,287	21,179				54,576	37,747	21,543				44,914	39,118	20,395
16																												45
17	Cluster	30%			Unadjusted Exit Poll Sample							Unadjusted Exit Poll Weighted Vote Shares						Recorded Vote Shares																10
18	States		Cast	Recorded	Sample	MoEC	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	EV	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	Margin	EV	Clinton	Bush	Other	Margin	EV			Region	2=party	MoE	Margin			Shift	MoE	Diff	EV Flip		RedShift	Abs(redshift)
19			113,866	104,427	54,948	3.42%	25,320	17,727	10,963	400	538	54,160	36,068	22,910	728	18,092	501	44,911	39,106	20,410	5,805	370	MoE >				zero	Discrep	EPDev	D,R,B	(abs)			131		45
20	1		104,427			3.68%	46.08%	32.26%	19.95%	0.73%		47.56%	31.68%	20.12%	0.64%	15.89%		43.01%	37.45%	19.54%	5.56%		10.33%	27			cluster
21						4.06%																														`
22	AK	W	238	259	528	5.54%	194	185	137	9	3	37.0	35.2	26.1	1.7	1.7	3	30.3	39.5	30.3	-9.2		10.9	0	W	51.19%	4.26%	10.88	6.66	R	6.66	5.54	1.12	3	Alaska	5.44	5.44
23	AL	S	1,913	1,688	813	4.45%	382	324	92	6	9	47.5	40.3	11.4	0.7	7.2	9	40.9	47.7	11.5	-6.8		14.0	1	S	54.11%	3.43%	13.98	6.63	R	6.63	4.45	2.18	9	Alabama	6.99	6.99
24	AR	S	1,012	951	538	5.09%	337	153	40	2	6	63.3	28.8	7.5	0.4	34.6	6	53.2	35.5	11.3	17.7	6	16.9	1	S	68.78%	3.92%	16.86	10.14	R	10.14	5.09	5.05		Arkansas	8.43	8.43
25	AZ	W	1,728	1,487	855	4.34%	325	279	229	14	8	38.4	32.9	27.0	1.7	5.4	8	36.5	38.5	25.0	-2.0		7.4	0	W	53.81%	3.34%	7.38	1.85	R	1.85	4.34	-2.49	8	Arizona	3.69	3.69
26	CA	W	11,789	11,132	2,340	2.44%	1200	548	518	20	54	52.5	24.0	22.7	0.9	28.5	54	46.0	32.6	21.4	13.4	54	15.1	1	W	68.65%	1.88%	15.12	6.48	D	6.48	2.44	4.04		California	7.56	7.56
27	CO	W	1,688	1,569	1,199	3.61%	531	362	286	12	8	44.6	30.4	24.0	1.0	14.2	8	40.1	35.9	24.0	4.3	8	9.9	1	W	59.46%	2.78%	9.93	4.45	R	4.45	3.61	0.84		Colorado	4.96	4.96
28	CT	E	1,740	1,616	1,502	3.19%	718	439	334	3	8	48.1	29.4	22.4	0.2	18.7	8	42.2	35.8	22.0	6.4	8	12.2	1	E	62.06%	2.45%	12.24	5.85	D	5.85	3.19	2.66		Connecticut	6.12	6.12
29	DC	E	263	228	582	2.89%	494	44	27	14	3	85.3	7.6	4.7	2.4	77.7	3	84.6	9.1	6.3	75.5	3	2.2	0	E	91.82%	2.23%	2.18	0.68	D	0.68	2.89	-2.21		DC	1.09	1.09
30	DE	E	343	290	907	4.21%	385	319	194	6	3	42.6	35.3	21.5	0.7	7.3	3	43.5	35.3	21.2	8.2	3	-0.9	0	E	54.69%	3.24%	-0.89	-0.93	D	0.93	4.21	-3.28		Delaware	-0.44	0.44
31	FL	S	5,772	5,314	1,545	3.21%	694	517	304	5	25	45.7	34.0	20.0	0.3	11.6	25	39.0	40.9	20.1	-1.9		13.5	1	S	57.31%	2.47%	13.53	6.66	B	6.66	3.21	3.45	25	Florida	6.77	6.77
32	GA	S	2,556	2,321	1,463	3.32%	660	575	209	6	13	45.5	39.7	14.4	0.4	5.9	13	43.5	42.9	13.7	0.6	13	5.3	0	S	53.44%	2.56%	5.27	2.05	R	2.05	3.32	-1.28		Georgia	2.64	2.64
33	HI	W	449	373	516	5.53%	250	177	78	7	4	48.8	34.6	15.2	1.4	14.3	4	48.1	36.7	15.2	11.4	4	2.9	0	W	58.55%	4.25%	2.87	0.74	D	0.74	5.53	-4.79		Hawaii	1.43	1.43
34	IA	M	1,486	1,355	542	5.46%	234	200	99	2	7	43.7	37.4	18.5	0.4	6.4	7	43.3	37.3	19.4	6.0	7	0.3	0	M	53.92%	4.20%	0.34	0.45	B	0.45	5.46	-5.01		Iowa	0.17	0.17
35	ID	W	486	482	540	5.44%	159	201	163	13	4	29.7	37.5	30.4	2.4	-7.8		28.4	42.0	29.6	-13.6		5.8	0	W	44.17%	4.19%	5.77	1.24	R	1.24	5.44	-4.20		Idaho	2.89	2.89
36	IL	M	5,650	5,050	1,717	2.97%	879	523	287	6	22	51.9	30.9	16.9	0.4	21.0	22	48.6	34.3	17.1	14.2	22	6.8	1	M	62.70%	2.29%	6.76	3.28	D	3.28	2.97	0.30		Illinois	3.38	3.38
37	IN	M	2,636	2,306	966	3.93%	507	283	153	11	12	53.1	29.7	16.0	1.2	23.5	12	36.8	42.9	20.3	-6.1		29.6	1	M	64.18%	3.02%	29.60	16.35	R	16.35	3.93	12.42	12	Indiana	14.80	14.80
38	KS	M	1,306	1,157	592	5.23%	201	215	168	2	6	34.3	36.7	28.7	0.3	-2.4		33.7	38.9	27.4	-5.1		2.8	0	M	48.32%	4.03%	2.75	0.56	R	0.56	5.23	-4.67		Kansas	1.38	1.38
39	KY	M	1,569	1,493	1,291	3.54%	574	538	166	5	8	44.7	41.9	12.9	0.4	2.8	8	44.6	41.3	14.1	3.2	8	-0.4	0	M	51.62%	2.73%	-0.40	0.19	R	0.19	3.54	-3.35		Kentucky	-0.20	0.20
40	LA	S	2,040	1,790	1,432	3.37%	622	586	203	12	9	43.7	41.2	14.3	0.8	2.5	9	45.6	41.0	13.5	4.6	9	-2.1	0	S	51.49%	2.59%	-2.08	-1.87	R	1.87	3.37	-1.50		Louisiana	-1.04	1.04
41	MA	E	2,960	2,774	1,008	3.73%	524	243	224	5	12	52.6	24.4	22.5	0.5	28.2	12	47.5	29.0	23.4	18.5	12	9.7	1	E	68.32%	2.87%	9.70	5.07	D	5.07	3.73	1.34		Massachusetts	4.85	4.85
42	MD	E	2,392	1,985	761	4.39%	416	219	114	2	10	55.4	29.2	15.2	0.3	26.2	10	49.8	35.6	14.6	14.2	10	12.1	1	E	65.51%	3.38%	12.05	5.59	D	5.59	4.39	1.20		Maryland	6.03	6.03
43	ME	E	695	679	552	5.34%	225	159	162	2	4	41.1	29.0	29.6	0.4	12.0	4	38.8	30.4	30.8	8.4	4	3.7	0	E	58.59%	4.11%	3.66	2.29	D	2.29	5.34	-3.05		Maine	1.83	1.83
44	MI	M	4,486	4,275	1,600	3.11%	740	481	352	9	18	46.8	30.4	22.3	0.6	16.4	18	43.8	36.4	19.9	7.4	18	9.0	1	M	60.61%	2.39%	8.98	3.01	B	3.01	3.11	-0.11		Michigan	4.49	4.49
45	MN	M	2,403	2,348	1,617	3.10%	731	476	390	10	10	45.5	29.6	24.3	0.6	15.9	10	43.5	31.9	24.7	11.6	10	4.2	0	M	60.56%	2.38%	4.24	2.01	B	2.01	3.10	-1.09		Minnesota	2.12	2.12
46	MO	M	2,518	2,391	1,336	3.31%	670	352	297	6	11	50.6	26.6	22.4	0.5	24.0	11	44.1	33.9	22.0	10.2	11	13.9	1	M	65.56%	2.55%	13.85	6.50	B	6.50	3.31	3.18		Missouri	6.93	6.93
47	MS	S	1,226	982	894	4.19%	476	328	81	2	7	53.7	37.0	9.1	0.2	16.7	7	40.8	49.7	9.6	-8.9		25.6	1	S	59.20%	3.22%	25.60	12.89	R	12.89	4.19	8.71	7	Mississippi	12.80	12.80
48	MT	W	407	411	546	5.45%	204	202	130	7	3	37.6	37.2	23.9	1.3	0.4	3	37.6	35.1	27.3	2.5	3	-2.1	0	W	50.25%	4.19%	-2.14	-0.06	R	0.06	5.45	-5.39		Montana	-1.07	1.07
49	NC	S	2,986	2,612	1,578	3.19%	743	603	213	5	14	47.5	38.6	13.6	0.3	9.0	14	42.7	43.4	13.9	-0.8		9.7	1	S	55.20%	2.45%	9.74	4.86	B	4.86	3.19	1.67	14	North Carolina	4.87	4.87
50	ND	M	316	308	761	4.62%	287	300	166	5	3	37.9	39.6	21.9	0.7	-1.7		32.2	44.2	23.6	-12.0		10.3	1	M	48.89%	3.55%	10.32	5.68	R	5.68	4.62	1.07		North Dakota	5.16	5.16
51	NE	M	771	739	581	5.17%	166	255	155	0	5	28.8	44.3	26.9	0.0	-15.5		29.4	46.6	24.0	-17.2		1.7	0	M	39.43%	3.97%	1.73	-0.58	R	0.58	5.17	-4.59		Nebraska	0.86	0.86
52	NH	E	551	537	1,339	3.45%	575	433	317	10	4	43.1	32.4	23.7	0.7	10.6	4	38.9	37.7	23.4	1.2	4	9.4	1	E	57.04%	2.65%	9.42	4.16	B	4.16	3.45	0.71		New Hampshire	4.71	4.71
53	NJ	E	3,572	3,344	1,611	3.13%	758	539	289	10	15	47.5	33.8	18.1	0.6	13.7	15	43.0	40.6	16.5	2.4	15	11.4	1	E	58.44%	2.41%	11.35	4.54	D	4.54	3.13	1.42		New Jersey	5.68	5.68
54	NM	W	675	570	1,022	3.87%	521	317	165	14	5	51.2	31.2	16.2	1.4	20.1	5	45.9	37.3	16.8	8.6	5	11.5	1	W	62.17%	2.97%	11.50	5.33	B	5.33	3.87	1.46		New Mexico	5.75	5.75
55	NV	W	556	506	524	5.56%	194	184	137	5	4	37.3	35.4	26.3	1.0	1.9	4	37.4	34.7	27.9	2.6	4	-0.7	0	W	51.32%	4.28%	-0.71	-0.05	B	0.05	5.56	-5.51		Nevada	-0.35	0.35
56	NY	E	7,613	6,927	2,001	2.74%	1010	575	374	9	33	51.3	29.2	19.0	0.5	22.1	33	49.7	33.9	16.4	15.9	33	6.3	1	E	63.72%	2.11%	6.25	1.59	D	1.59	2.74	-1.15		New York	3.13	3.13
57	OH	M	5,187	4,940	1,645	3.08%	758	504	359	3	21	46.7	31.0	22.1	0.2	15.6	21	40.2	38.4	21.5	1.8	21	13.8	1	M	60.06%	2.37%	13.81	6.49	B	6.49	3.08	3.42		Ohio	6.91	6.91
58	OK	S	1,549	1,390	848	4.37%	319	311	210	0	8	38.0	37.0	25.0	0.0	1.0	8	34.0	42.7	23.3	-8.6		9.6	1	S	50.63%	3.37%	9.58	3.96	R	3.96	4.37	-0.42	8	Oklahoma	4.79	4.79
59	OR	W	1,525	1,463	1,173	3.48%	555	266	336	9	7	47.6	22.8	28.8	0.8	24.8	7	42.5	32.5	25.0	10.0	7	14.8	1	W	67.60%	2.68%	14.84	5.12	B	5.12	3.48	1.64		Oregon	7.42	7.42
60	PA	E	5,491	4,960	1,638	3.09%	744	513	349	9	23	46.1	31.8	21.6	0.6	14.3	23	45.2	36.1	18.7	9.0	23	5.3	0	E	59.19%	2.38%	5.28	0.92	B	0.92	3.09	-2.18		Pennsylvania	2.64	2.64
61	RI	E	522	453	704	4.42%	390	170	138	2	4	55.7	24.3	19.7	0.3	31.4	4	47.0	29.0	23.9	18.0	4	13.4	1	E	69.64%	3.40%	13.41	8.67	D	8.67	4.42	4.26		Rhode Island	6.70	6.70
62	SC	S	1,496	1,203	948	4.14%	409	413	111	7	8	43.5	43.9	11.8	0.7	-0.4		39.9	48.0	12.1	-8.1		7.7	0	S	49.76%	3.18%	7.71	3.63	R	3.63	4.14	-0.51		South Carolina	3.86	3.86
63	SD	M	351	336	464	5.90%	172	194	94	1	3	37.3	42.1	20.4	0.2	-4.8		37.1	40.7	22.2	-3.5		-1.3	0	M	46.99%	4.54%	-1.25	0.17	R	0.17	5.90	-5.73		South Dakota	-0.63	0.63
64	TN	S	2,065	1,983	852	4.21%	482	280	75	4	11	57.3	33.3	8.9	0.5	24.0	11	47.1	42.4	10.5	4.7	11	19.4	1	S	63.25%	3.24%	19.37	10.23	R	10.23	4.21	6.02		Tennessee	9.68	9.68
65	TX	S	6,817	6,154	2,164	2.71%	909	690	522	11	32	42.6	32.4	24.5	0.5	10.3	32	37.1	40.6	22.4	-3.5		13.8	1	S	56.85%	2.09%	13.75	5.56	R	5.56	2.71	2.84	32	Texas	6.88	6.88
66	UT	W	793	744	817	4.35%	206	320	238	48	5	25.4	39.4	29.3	5.9	-14.0		24.7	43.4	32.0	-18.7		4.7	0	W	39.16%	3.35%	4.67	0.72	R	0.72	4.35	-3.63		Utah	2.34	2.34
67	VA	S	2,805	2,559	918	4.17%	433	338	122	12	13	47.8	37.3	13.5	1.3	10.5	13	40.6	45.0	14.4	-4.4		14.9	1	S	56.16%	3.21%	14.88	7.26	B	7.26	4.17	3.08	13	Virginia	7.44	7.44
68	VT	E	304	290	960	3.92%	477	256	218	6	3	49.8	26.8	22.8	0.6	23.1	3	46.1	30.4	23.5	15.7	3	7.4	0	E	65.08%	3.02%	7.40	3.73	D	3.73	3.92	-0.19		Vermont	3.70	3.70
69	WA	W	2,453	2,288	1,541	3.14%	717	430	369	14	11	46.9	28.1	24.1	0.9	18.8	11	43.4	32.0	24.6	11.4	11	7.3	1	W	62.51%	2.42%	7.32	3.45	B	3.45	3.14	0.31		Washington	3.66	3.66
70	WI	M	2,720	2,531	1,622	3.13%	700	529	373	9	11	43.5	32.8	23.2	0.6	10.6	11	41.1	36.8	22.1	4.4	11	6.3	0	M	56.96%	2.41%	6.26	2.32	B	2.32	3.13	-0.81		Wisconsin	3.13	3.13
71	WV	E	784	684	480	5.63%	257	154	61	3	5	54.1	32.4	12.8	0.6	21.7	5	48.4	35.4	16.2	13.0	5	8.7	0	E	62.53%	4.33%	8.66	5.70	R	5.70	5.63	0.07		West Virginia	4.33	4.33
72	WY	W	213	200	575	5.31%	206	225	135	6	3	36.0	39.3	23.6	1.0	-3.3		34.1	39.7	26.2	-5.6		2.3	0	W	47.80%	4.08%	2.28	1.91	R	1.91	5.31	-3.39		Wyoming	1.14	1.14
73
74		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.TrsrffSa9tP
75
76
77
78			1988		1992		1996		2000		2004		2008
79			Cast	Rec	Cast	Rec	Cast	Rec	Cast	Rec	Cast	Rec	Cast	Rec
80
81			8671489	92012.41	113948	6814868	10527876.88%	96295	3831763.94	10555827.7%	125737	272114	131154.14	131372
82	AK	Alaska	188	200	238	259	240	242	270	286	293	313	304	326
83	AL	Alabama	1685	1378	1913	1688	1744	1534	1953	1673	2060	1883	2126	2100
84	AR	Arkansas	972	828	1012	951	949	884	936	922	1140	1055	1092	1087
85	AZ	Arizona	1339	1172	1728	1487	1489	1404	1644	1534	2239	2013	2497	2304
86	CA	California	10440	9887	11789	11132	11079	10019	11489	10966	12807	12420	13828	13576
87	CO	Colorado	1533	1372	1688	1569	1682	1511	1633	1741	2097	2130	2308	2401
88	CT	Connecticut	1552	1443	1740	1616	1409	1393	1332	1460	1524	1579	1610	1647
89	DC	DistrictofColumbia	246	193	263	228	239	186	267	202	270	228	306	266
90	DE	Delaware	285	250	343	290	293	271	352	328	385	375	408	412
91	FL	Florida	5158	4302	5772	5314	5516	5304	6006	5963	7372	7610	7951	8410
92	GA	Georgia	2247	1810	2556	2321	2632	2299	2827	2597	3332	3302	4183	3932
93	HI	Hawaii	408	354	449	373	361	360	340	368	433	429	457	454
94	IA	Iowa	1318	1226	1486	1355	1291	1234	1353	1316	1522	1507	1501	1537
95	ID	Idaho	435	409	486	482	502	492	500	502	585	598	644	657
96	IL	Illinois	5073	4559	5650	5050	4779	4311	5030	4742	5672	5274	5436	5523
97	IN	Indiana	2449	2169	2636	2306	2367	2136	2564	2199	2598	2468	2758	2753
98	KS	Kansas	1074	993	1306	1157	1129	1074	1148	1072	1188	1188	1219	1238
99	KY	Kentucky	1325	1323	1569	1493	1535	1389	1645	1544	1930	1796	1952	1828
100	LA	Louisiana	1979	1628	2040	1790	1915	1784	2030	1766	2067	1943	2149	1961
101	MA	Massachusetts	2827	2633	2960	2774	2569	2557	2772	2703	3085	2912	3044	3081
102	MD	Maryland	1875	1714	2392	1985	2048	1781	2178	2025	2413	2387	2611	2632
103	ME	Maine	590	555	695	679	626	606	677	652	736	741	716	731
104	MI	Michigan	4018	3669	4486	4275	4080	3849	4343	4233	4818	4839	4865	5007
105	MN	Minnesota	2182	2097	2403	2348	2259	2193	2376	2439	2887	2828	2759	2910
106	MO	Missouri	2422	2093	2518	2391	2397	2158	2659	2360	2815	2731	2846	2928
107	MS	Mississippi	1132	932	1226	982	1069	894	1213	995	1263	1152	1439	1290
108	MT	Montana	390	366	407	411	437	407	409	411	482	450	473	491
109	NC	NorthCarolina	2513	2134	2986	2612	2897	2516	2995	2911	3639	3501	4370	4311
110	ND	NorthDakota	335	297	316	308	300	266	313	288	330	313	321	318
111	NE	Nebraska	725	662	771	739	720	677	710	697	793	778	844	801
112	NH	NewHampshire	474	451	551	537	518	499	571	569	677	678	708	711
113	NJ	NewJersey	3453	3100	3572	3344	3251	3076	3374	3187	3693	3612	3637	3876
114	NM	NewMexico	567	521	675	570	627	556	647	599	837	756	846	830
115	NV	Nevada	371	350	556	506	562	464	641	609	871	830	1027	968
116	NY	NewYork	7174	6486	7613	6927	6830	6316	7004	6823	7698	7391	7559	7595
117	OH	Ohio	4926	4394	5187	4940	4811	4534	4823	4705	5485	5628	5483	5710
118	OK	Oklahoma	1282	1171	1549	1390	1379	1207	1431	1234	1541	1464	1507	1463
119	OR	Oregon	1293	1202	1525	1463	1462	1378	1529	1534	1924	1837	1818	1828
120	PA	Pennsylvania	4955	4536	5491	4960	4951	4506	4988	4913	5845	5770	5747	6013
121	RI	RhodeIsland	455	405	522	453	439	390	438	409	467	437	507	470
122	SC	SouthCarolina	1216	986	1496	1203	1479	1149	1725	1384	1899	1618	2100	1921
123	SD	SouthDakota	360	313	351	336	336	324	311	316	378	388	390	382
124	TN	Tennessee	1857	1636	2065	1983	2133	1894	2183	2076	2319	2437	2516	2600
125	TX	Texas	6186	5427	6817	6154	6210	5612	7005	6408	7950	7411	8435	8087
126	UT	Utah	731	647	793	744	707	666	829	771	1022	928	939	956
127	VA	Virginia	2504	2192	2805	2559	2796	2417	2962	2739	3134	3198	3650	3723
128	VT	Vermont	262	243	304	290	258	258	290	294	316	312	308	325
129	WA	Washington	2064	1865	2453	2288	2436	2254	2527	2489	2851	2859	3073	3049
130	WI	Wisconsin	2474	2192	2720	2531	2330	2196	2632	2599	3010	2997	2887	2983
131	WV	WestVirginia	730	653	784	684	715	636	732	648	798	756	741	715
132	WY	Wyoming	196	177	213	200	230	212	219	218	247	243	250	255
133	1992
134	Alabama		690,080	40.88	–	804,283	47.65	9	183,109	10.85	–	10,588	0.64	–	1,688,060	AL
135	Alaska		78,294	30.29	–	102,000	39.46	3	73,481	28.43	–	4,731	1.83	–	258,506	AK
136	Arizona		543,050	36.52	–	572,086	38.47	8	353,741	23.79	–	18,129	1.22	–	1,487,006	AZ
137	Arkansas		505,823	53.21	6	337,324	35.48	–	99,132	10.43	–	8,374	0.88	–	950,653	AR
138	California		5,121,325	46.01	54	3,630,574	32.61	–	2,296,006	20.63	–	83,816	0.75	–	11,131,721	CA
139	Colorado		629,681	40.13	8	562,850	35.87	–	366,010	23.32	–	10,639	0.68	–	1,569,180	CO
140	Connecticut		682,318	42.21	8	578,313	35.78	–	348,771	21.58	–	6,930	0.43	–	1,616,332	CT
141	D.C.		192,619	84.64	3	20,698	9.10%	–	97	4.25%	–	4,574	2.01	–	227,572	DC
142	Delaware		126,054	43.52	3	102,313	35.78%	–	592	20.45%	–	2,040	0.7	–	289,620	DE
143	Florida		2,072,698	39	–	2,173,310	40.89%	25	10,531	19.82%	–	15,317	0.29	–	5,314,392	FL
144	Georgia		1,008,966	43.47	13	995,252	42.88%	–	3,097	13.44%	–	7,258	0.13	–	2,321,133	GA
145	Hawaii		179,310	48.09	4	136,822	36.70%	–	530	14.22%	–	3,707	0.99	–	372,842	HI
146	Idaho		137,013	28.42	–	202,645	42.03%	4	1,304	27.05%	–	12,061	2.5	–	482,114	ID
147	Illinois		2,453,350	48.58	22	1,734,096	34.34%	–	8,405	16.64%	–	22,196	0.44	–	5,050,157	IL
148	Indiana		848,420	36.79	–	989,375	42.91%	12	4,559	19.77%	–	12,142	0.53	–	2,305,871	IN
149	Iowa		586,353	43.29	7	504,891	37.27%	–	2,535	18.71%	–	9,895	0.73	–	1,354,607	IA
150	Kansas		390,434	33.74	–	449,951	38.88%	6	3,124	26.99%	–	4,513	0.39	–	1,157,256	KS
151	Kentucky		665,104	44.55	8	617,178	41.34%	–	2,039	13.66%	–	6,674	0.45	–	1,492,900	KY
152	Louisiana		815,971	45.58	9	733,386	40.97%	–	2,115	11.81%	–	29,182	1.63	–	1,790,017	LA
153	Maine		263,420	38.77	4	206,504	30.39%	–	2,068	30.44%	–	2,755	0.44	–	679,499	ME
154	Maryland		988,571	49.8	10	707,094	35.62%	–	2,814	14.18%	–	7,967	0.4	–	1,985,046	MD
155	Massachusetts		1,318,662	47.54	12	805,049	29.03%	–	6,323	22.80%	–	17,551	0.63	–	2,773,574	MA
156	Michigan		1,871,182	43.77	18	1,554,940	36.38%	–	8,248	19.30%	–	23,738	0.56	–	4,274,673	MI
157	Minnesota		1,020,997	43.48	10	747,841	31.85%	–	5,625	23.96%	–	16,604	0.71	–	2,347,948	MN
158	Mississippi		400,258	40.77	–	487,793	49.68%	7	856	8.72%	–	8,116	0.83	–	981,793	MS
159	Missouri		1,053,873	44.07	11	811,159	33.92%	–	5,187	21.69%	–	7,497	0.31	–	2,391,270	MO
160	Montana		154,507	37.63	3	144,207	35.12%	–	1,072	26.12%	–	4,644	1.13	–	410,583	MT
161	Nebraska		217,344	29.4	–	344,346	46.58%	5	1,747	23.63%	–	2,906	0.39	–	739,283	NE
162	Nevada		189,148	37.36	4	175,828	34.73%	–	1,326	26.19%	–	8,762	1.73	–	506,318	NV
163	New Hampshire		209,040	38.91	4	202,484	37.69%	–	1,213	22.59%	–	4,354	0.81	–	537,215	NH
164	New Jersey		1,436,206	42.95	15	1,356,865	40.58%	–	5,218	15.61%	–	28,694	0.86	–	3,343,594	NJ
165	New Mexico		261,617	45.9	5	212,824	37.34%	–	919	16.12%	–	3,650	0.64	–	569,986	NM
166	New York		3,444,450	49.73	33	2,346,649	33.88%	–	10,907	15.75%	–	45,105	0.65	–	6,926,925	NY
167	North Carolina		1,114,042	42.65	–	1,134,661	43.44%	14	3,579	13.70%	–	5,283	0.2	–	2,611,850	NC
168	North Dakota		99,168	32.18	–	136,244	44.22%	3	711	23.07%	–	1,637	0.53	–	308,133	ND
169	Ohio		1,984,942	40.18	21	1,894,310	38.35%	–	10,364	20.98%	–	24,286	0.49	–	2,611,850	OH
170	Oklahoma		473,066	34.02	–	592,929	42.65%	8	3,199	23.01%	–	4,486	0.32	–	1,390,359	OK
171	Oregon		621,314	42.48	7	475,757	32.53%	–	3,541	24.21%	–	11,481	0.78	–	1,462,643	OR
172	Pennsylvania		2,239,164	45.15	23	1,791,841	36.13%	–	9,027	18.20%	–	26,138	0.53	–	4,959,810	PA
173	Rhode Island		213,299	47.04	4	131,601	29.02%	–	1,050	23.16%	–	3,532	0.78	–	453,477	RI
174	South Carolina		479,514	39.88	–	577,507	48.02%	8	1,389	11.55%	–	6,634	0.55	–	1,202,527	SC
175	South Dakota		124,888	37.14	–	136,718	40.66%	3	733	21.80%	–	1,353	0.4	–	336,254	SD
176	Tennessee		933,521	47.08	11	841,300	42.43%	–	2,000	10.09%	–	7,849	0.4	–	1,982,638	TN
177	Texas		2,281,815	37.08	–	2,496,071	40.56%	32	13,548	22.01%	–	21,351	0.35	–	6,154,018	TX
178	Utah		183,429	24.65	–	322,632	43.36%	5	2,034	27.34%	–	34,537	4.64	–	743,998	UT
179	Vermont		133,592	46.11	3	88,122	30.42%	–	660	22.78%	–	7,849	0.69	–	289,701	VT
180	Virginia		1,038,650	40.59	–	1,150,517	44.97%	13	3,486	13.63%	–	20,859	0.82	–	2,558,665	VA
181	Washington		993,037	43.41	11	731,234	31.97%	–	5,418	23.68%	–	21,514	0.94	–	2,287,565	WA
182	West Virginia		331,001	48.41	5	241,974	35.39%	–	1,088	15.91%	–	1,873	0.27	–	683,677	WV
183	Wisconsin		1,041,066	41.13	11	930,855	36.78%	–	5,445	21.51%	–	14,714	0.58	–	2,531,114	WI
184	Wyoming		68,160	34.1	–	79,347	39.70%	3	513	25.65%	–	1,114	0.56	–	199,884	WY
185	TOTALS:		44,909,806	43.01	370	39,104,550	37.45%	168	3,880,486	18.91%	–	671,599	0.64	–	102,095,809


1
2										1988
3						Unadjusted National Exit Poll						Unadjusted NEP -Voted in 1984
4						Respondents	Dukakis	Bush	Other		Total	Mondale	Reagan	Other	DNV
5						11,596	5,771	5,695	130		10,979	3,361	5,909	453	1,256
6							49.77%	49.11%	1.12%			30.61%	53.82%	4.13%	11.44%
7
8					94.02%	Unadjusted National Exit Poll					87.07%	Final National Exit Poll
9				1984	Turnout	Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other		Turnout	Mix	Dukakis	Bush	Other
10				DNV	11,247	11%	57%	42%	1%		7,328	8%	47%	52%	1%
11				Mondale	34,763	34%	95%	4%	1%		30,226	33%	92%	7%	1%
12				Reagan	55,212	54%	20%	79%	1%		53,125	58%	19%	80%	1%
13				Other	1,022	1%	50%	49%	1%		916	1%	50%	49%	1%
14
15				Total	102,245	100%	49.87%	49.13%	1.00%		91,595	100%	45.64%	53.36%	1.00%
16						102,245	50,990	50,233	1,022			91,595	41,804	48,875	916
17						2-party	50.37%	49.63%				159 EV Flip to Bush
18	75%	Unctd
19	*Unad	30%	cluster exit poll *				Unadjusted EP / Unctd alloc				Recorded Vote										Unctd+recorded		u/c	v/c				Edison-Mtofsky 2005 Evaluation (45)								if no exit poll, use avg			Avg
20	State	EV	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Unct/cast	Dukakis	Bush	Margin	EV	Dukakis	Bush	Margin	EV	Margin		3.47		Dukakis	Bush	Dukakis	Bush	Dukakis	Bush		g-k		WPE	Dukakis	Bush	Exit Poll		11			Exit Poll (Red &Blue)			3.47	g-k	abs(an)	> MOE ?
21	Total	538	102,245	91,595	10,650	10.42%	51,262	49,911	1,352		41,810	48,887	-7,077		Discrep	Exceed>	17		Recorded	Recorded	Cast	Cast	Share	Share	State	Dev	Wtd	-2.38	46.88	52.14	1=Roper (24)		EVFlip		Total	Dukakis	Bush	Other	MoEC	or unadj	- am	1= yes
22		102,245					50.14	48.82	1.32	259	45.65	53.37	-7.73	112	9.05	Region	>MoE	2-pty	41,810	48,887	49,797	51,550	48.70	50.42		4.49	Unwtd	-2.27	46.14	52.69			159							Dev	MoE	13
23
24	AK	3	188	200	-12	-6%	33.8	61.8	-28.0		36.3	59.6	-23.3		-4.7	W		38.45	73	119	63	116	33.77	61.82	AK	-2.50	R	na	36.27	59.59		AK		Alaska					3.47	-2.50	-0.98	0
25	AL	9	1,685	1,378	307	22%	46.3	53.0	-6.7		39.9	59.2	-19.3		12.6	S	1	40.25	549	816	779	892	46.25	52.95	AL	6.39	R	-1.2	40.46	58.57		AL		Alabama					3.47	6.39	2.92	1
26	AR	6	972	828	144	17%	47.1	51.7	-4.7		42.2	56.4	-14.2		9.5	S	1	42.39	349	467	457	503	47.06	51.71	AR	4.87	R	na	42.19	56.37		AR		Arkansas					3.47	4.87	1.40	1
27	AZ	7	1,339	1,172	167	14%	43.3	55.6	-12.3		38.7	60.0	-21.2		8.9	W	1	39.25	454	703	579	744	43.27	55.59	AZ	4.53	R	0.8	38.34	60.35		AZ		Arizona					3.47	4.53	1.05	1
28	CA *	47	10,440	9,887	553	6%	57.69	40.79	16.9	47	47.6	51.1	-3.6		20.5	W	1	58.58	4,702	5,055	5,117	5,193	49.01	49.75	CA *	10.13	D	-3.8	49.46	49.23	1	CA *	47	California	2,368	1,366	966	36	2.58	10.13	7.55	1
29	CO	8	1,533	1,372	161	12%	48.4	50.1	-1.7		45.3	53.1	-7.8		6.1	W		47.08	621	728	742	768	48.39	50.12	CO	3.11	B	-3.0	46.78	51.56		CO	8	Colorado					3.47	3.11	-0.36	0
30	CT *	8	1,552	1,443	109	8%	46.73	52.19	-5.5		46.9	52.0	-5.1		-0.3	E		47.24	677	750	758	777	48.84	50.09	CT *	-0.14	D	-5.2	49.47	49.38	1	CT *		Connecticut	1,301	608	679	14	3.53	-0.14	-3.53	0
31	DC	3	285	193	92	48%	80.2	17.8	62.4	3	82.7	14.3	68.4	3	-5.9	E		85.25	159	28	229	51	80.18	17.76	DC	-2.47	D	-1.8	83.55	13.40		DC		DC					3.47	-2.47	-1.00	0
32	DE	3	246	250	-4	-2%	43.0	56.4	-13.4		43.5	55.9	-12.4		-1.0	E		44.71	109	140	106	139	42.98	56.37	DE	-0.50	D	na	43.48	55.88		DE		Delaware					3.47	-0.50	-2.97	0
33	FL*	21	5,158	4,302	856	20%	45.78	53.68	-7.9		38.5	60.9	-22.4		14.5	S	1	46.03	1,657	2,619	2,299	2,833	44.56	54.92	FL*	7.27	B	-2.4	39.71	59.67	1	FL*		Florida	2,025	927	1,087	11	2.82	7.27	-2.82	0
34	GA	12	2,247	1,810	437	24%	46.4	53.0	-6.6		39.5	59.8	-20.3		13.7	S	1	39.80	715	1,081	1,043	1,191	46.41	52.99	GA	6.91	R	1.8	38.60	60.65		GA		Georgia					3.47	6.91	3.44	1
35	HI	4	408	354	54	15%	57.0	42.2	14.8	4	54.3	44.8	9.5	4	5.3	W		54.81	192	159	233	172	56.99	42.16	HI	2.72	D	-0.6	54.57	44.45		HI		Hawaii					3.47	2.72	-0.75	0
36	IA *	8	1,318	1,226	92	8%	54.37	44.17	10.2	8	54.7	44.5	10.2	8	0.0	M		55.18	671	545	740	568	56.13	43.13	IA *	-0.34	B	na	54.71	44.50	1	IA *		Iowa	1,784	970	788	26	3.00	-0.34	-3.00	0
37	ID	4	435	409	26	6%	38.3	59.9	-21.5		36.0	62.1	-26.1		4.6	W		37.76	147	254	167	260	38.34	59.86	ID	2.33	R	-2.6	37.31	60.78		ID		Idaho					3.47	2.33	-1.14	0
38	IL *	24	5,073	4,559	514	11%	53.67	45.82	9.8	24	48.6	50.7	-2.1		11.9	M	1	53.95	2,216	2,311	2,601	2,439	51.27	48.09	IL *	5.07	D	-9.2	53.20	46.09	1	IL *	24	Illinois	1,757	943	805	9	3.03	5.07	-3.03	0
39	IN *	12	2,449	2,169	280	13%	48.44	51.14	-2.7		39.7	59.8	-20.2		17.5	M	1	48.65	861	1,298	1,071	1,368	43.73	55.85	IN *	8.75	R	-0.6	39.99	59.54	1	IN *		Indiana	1,189	576	608	5	3.69	8.75	-3.69	0
40	KS	7	1,074	993	81	8%	45.0	53.5	-8.5		42.6	55.8	-13.2		4.8	M		44.67	423	554	483	574	45.01	53.47	KS	2.45	R	-3.6	44.36	53.99		KS		Kansas					3.47	2.45	-1.02	0
41	KY	9	1,325	1,323	2	0%	43.9	55.5	-11.5		43.9	55.5	-11.6		0.1	M		44.67	580	734	582	735	43.94	55.46	KY	0.06	R	-1.0	44.38	55.02		KY		Kentucky					3.47	0.06	-3.41	0
42	LA	10	1,979	1,628	351	22%	49.5	49.1	0.5	10	44.1	54.3	-10.2		10.7	S	1	45.85	717	884	980	971	49.54	49.08	LA	5.48	R	-2.4	45.26	53.07		LA	10	Louisiana					3.47	5.48	2.01	1
43	MA *	13	2,827	2,633	194	7%	55.20	43.00	12.2	13	53.2	45.4	7.8	13	4.4	E		56.21	1,401	1,195	1,547	1,243	54.73	43.98	MA *	1.97	D	-6.4	56.43	42.18	1	MA *		Massachusetts	1,172	647	504	21	3.69	1.97	-3.69	0
44	MD *	10	1,875	1,714	161	9%	55.35	43.70	11.7	10	48.2	51.1	-2.9		14.6	E	1	55.88	826	876	947	916	50.50	48.87	MD *	7.15	D	-5.2	50.80	48.51	1	MD *	10	Maryland	1,158	641	506	11	3.72	7.15	-3.72	0
45	ME	4	590	555	35	6%	45.7	53.5	-11.5		43.9	55.3	-11.5		0.0	E		44.22	244	307	270	316	45.72	53.54	ME	1.84	B	-6.8	47.28	51.94		ME		Maine					3.47	1.84	-1.63	0
46	MI *	20	4,018	3,669	349	10%	51.16	47.61	3.5	20	45.7	53.6	-7.9		11.4	M	1	51.80	1,676	1,966	1,937	2,053	48.22	51.09	MI *	5.49	B	-1.2	46.27	52.97	1	MI *	20	Michigan	1,550	793	738	19	3.23	5.49	-3.23	0
47	MN *	10	2,182	2,097	85	4%	52.35	46.03	6.3	10	52.9	45.9	7.0	10	-0.7	M		53.21	1,109	962	1,173	984	53.77	45.08	MN *	-0.56	B	1.2	52.31	46.50	1	MN *		Minnesota	1,171	613	539	19	3.72	-0.56	-3.72	0
48	MO *	11	2,422	2,093	329	16%	49.06	49.84	-0.8		47.9	51.8	-4.0		3.2	M		49.60	1,002	1,085	1,248	1,167	51.54	48.19	MO *	1.21	B	0.2	47.75	51.93	1	MO *		Missouri	1,278	627	637	14	3.56	1.21	-3.56	0
49	MS *	7	1,132	932	200	22%	42.63	56.62	-14.0		39.1	59.9	-20.8		6.8	S		42.95	364	558	514	608	45.43	53.71	MS *	3.56	R	-0.6	39.37	59.59	1	MS *		Mississippi	1,201	512	680	9	3.64	3.56	-3.64	0
50	MT	4	390	366	24	7%	48.0	50.4	-2.4		46.2	52.1	-5.9		3.5	W		48.74	169	190	187	196	48.00	50.38	MT	1.80	R	-4.4	48.40	49.87		MT	4	Montana					3.47	1.80	-1.67	0
51	NC *	13	2,513	2,134	379	18%	46.87	52.73	-5.9		41.7	58.0	-16.3		10.4	S	1	47.05	890	1,237	1,174	1,332	46.73	53.00	NC *	5.16	B	-5.0	44.21	55.47	1	NC *		North Carolina	1,500	703	791	6	3.28	5.16	-3.28	0
52	ND	3	335	297	38	13%	46.6	52.5	-6.0		43.0	56.0	-13.1		7.1	M		44.24	128	167	156	176	46.58	52.53	ND	3.61	R	-3.0	44.47	54.53		ND		North Dakota					3.47	3.61	0.14	1
53	NE	5	725	662	63	9%	42.3	57.1	-14.8		39.2	60.2	-21.0		6.1	M		41.91	260	398	307	414	42.29	57.11	NE	3.09	R	-6.0	42.20	57.15		NE		Nebraska					3.47	3.09	-0.38	0
54	NH	4	474	451	23	5%	38.2	60.6	-22.4		36.3	62.5	-26.2		3.8	E		39.78	164	282	181	287	38.25	60.63	NH	1.92	B	-4.2	38.43	60.39		NH		New Hampshire					3.47	1.92	-1.55	0
55	NJ *	16	3,453	3,100	353	11%	47.11	51.60	-4.5		42.6	56.2	-13.6		9.1	E		47.73	1,320	1,743	1,585	1,832	45.92	53.04	NJ *	4.51	D	-6.6	45.90	52.94	1	NJ *		New Jersey	1,314	619	678	17	3.51	4.51	-3.51	0
56	NM *	5	567	521	46	9%	50.19	47.58	2.6	5	46.9	51.9	-5.0		7.6	W		51.34	244	270	279	282	49.17	49.69	NM *	3.29	B	-7.2	50.50	48.26	1	NM *	5	New Mexico	1,301	653	619	29	3.53	3.29	-3.53	0
57	NV *	4	371	350	21	6%	43.56	54.18	-10.6		37.9	58.9	-20.9		10.3	W	1	44.57	133	206	148	211	40.01	56.95	NV *	5.64	B	-0.4	38.12	58.66	1	NV *		Nevada	838	365	454	19	4.37	5.64	-4.37	0
58	NY *	36	7,174	6,486	688	11%	56.55	42.31	14.2	36	51.6	47.5	4.1	36	10.1	E	1	57.21	3,348	3,082	3,864	3,254	53.86	45.36	NY *	4.93	D	-1.6	52.42	46.72	1	NY *		New York	1,846	1,044	781	21	2.93	4.93	-2.93	0
59	OH *	23	4,926	4,394	532	12%	46.58	52.97	-6.4		44.2	55.0	-10.9		4.5	M		46.79	1,940	2,417	2,339	2,550	47.48	51.76	OH *	2.43	B	-1.6	44.95	54.20	1	OH *		Ohio	1,550	722	821	7	3.23	2.43	-3.23	0
60	OK	8	1,282	1,171	111	9%	44.2	55.1	-10.9		41.3	57.9	-16.7		5.8	S		39.01	483	678	567	706	44.20	55.08	OK	2.92	R	5.6	38.48	60.73		OK		Oklahoma					3.47	2.92	-0.55	0
61	OR *	7	1,293	1,202	91	8%	54.50	43.25	11.3	7	51.3	46.6	4.7	7	6.6	W		55.75	616	560	685	583	52.96	45.08	OR *	3.22	B	-7.4	54.98	42.91		OR *		Oregon	800	436	346	18	4.47	3.22	-0.25	0
62	PA *	25	4,955	4,536	419	9%	49.91	49.17	0.7	25	48.4	50.7	-2.3		3.0	E		50.37	2,195	2,300	2,509	2,405	50.64	48.53	PA *	1.52	B	-0.8	48.79	50.30	1	PA *	25	Pennsylvania	1,629	813	801	15	3.16	1.52	-3.16	0
63	RI	4	455	405	50	12%	57.8	41.8	15.9	4	55.6	43.9	11.7	4	4.2	E		55.78	225	178	263	190	57.78	41.83	RI	2.14	D	0.2	55.54	44.03		RI		Rhode Island					3.47	2.14	-1.33	0
64	SC	8	1,216	986	230	23%	44.7	54.6	-9.9		37.6	61.5	-23.9		14.0	S	1	38.65	371	606	543	664	44.66	54.60	SC	7.08	R	-1.4	38.28	60.80		SC		South Carolina					3.47	7.08	3.61	1
65	SD	3	360	313	47	15%	50.2	49.2	1.0	3	46.5	52.9	-6.3		7.4	M		47.33	146	165	181	177	50.23	49.21	SD	3.72	R	-1.0	47.01	52.35		SD	3	South Dakota					3.47	3.72	0.25	1
66	TN	11	1,857	1,636	221	13%	45.5	54.0	-8.5		41.6	57.9	-16.3		7.9	S		41.78	680	947	845	1,002	45.53	53.98	TN	3.98	R	1.0	41.05	58.39		TN		Tennessee					3.47	3.98	0.51	1
67	TX *	29	6,186	5,427	759	14%	49.15	50.00	-0.8		43.4	56.0	-12.6		11.8	S	1	49.57	2,353	3,037	2,922	3,226	47.23	52.15	TX *	5.80	R	0.8	42.95	56.35	1	TX *		Texas	2,004	985	1,002	17	2.85	5.80	-2.85	0
68	UT	5	731	647	84	13%	37.0	61.5	-24.5		32.1	66.2	-34.2		9.7	W	1	32.61	207	428	270	449	36.98	61.48	UT	4.93	R	na	32.05	66.22		UT		Utah					3.47	4.93	1.46	1
69	VA	12	2,504	2,192	312	14%	43.7	55.4	-11.7		39.2	59.7	-20.5		8.8	S		39.33	860	1,309	1,094	1,387	43.69	55.41	VA	4.46	B	-5.8	42.13	56.84		VA		Virginia					3.47	4.46	0.99	1
70	VT *	3	262	243	19	8%	49.94	47.99	1.9	3	47.6	51.1	-3.5		5.5	E		50.99	116	124	130	129	49.53	49.24	VT *	2.36	D	0.6	47.28	51.40	1	VT *	3	Vermont	773	386	371	16	4.58	2.36	-4.58	0
71	WA *	10	2,064	1,865	199	11%	51.56	46.39	5.2	10	50.1	48.5	1.6	10	3.6	W		52.64	934	904	1,083	954	52.45	46.20	WA *	1.51	B	-5.4	52.75	45.76	1	WA *		Washington	1,121	578	520	23	3.80	1.51	-3.80	0
72	WI *	11	2,474	2,192	282	13%	50.79	48.34	2.5	11	51.4	47.8	3.6	11	-1.2	M		51.24	1,127	1,048	1,338	1,118	54.10	45.20	WI *	-0.62	B	-0.2	51.51	47.70	1	WI *		Wisconsin	1,386	704	670	12	3.42	-0.62	-3.42	0
73	WV	6	730	653	77	12%	54.6	45.1	9.5	6	52.2	47.5	4.7	6	4.8	E		52.38	341	310	399	329	54.60	45.10	WV	2.40	R	2.2	51.10	48.56		WV		West Virginia					3.47	2.40	-1.07	0
74	WY	3	196	177	19	11%	41.7	57.0	-15.3		38.0	60.5	-22.5		7.2	W		38.57	67	107	82	112	41.68	57.00	WY	3.67	R	1.0	37.51	61.03		WY		Wyoming					3.47	3.67	0.20	1
75
76																MoE												Moe = (1+CF)(x(1-x)/n)
77						1988 Battleground Unadjusted Exit Polls										Average	3.47%
78																Recorded	3.18%					3.72%		2.96%					3.47%	3.82%
79			Roper			Unadjusted Exit Polls							Recorded		Weighted	Sample	3.34%	Dukakis	Edison-Mitofsky WPE (2004 report)			Unadj		E/M		Dukakis	EV	EV Flip		21	12
80	State	EV	WPD	Recorded	Sample	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Margin	MoEC	EV	Dukakis	Bush	Other	Dev		WPE		2pty	219	132	MoEC	RedShift	>MoEC
81	CA	55	20.39%	9,887	2,368	1,366	966	36	57.69%	40.79%	1.52%	16.89%	47.6%	51.1%	1.30%	-3.50%	2.58%		36.27%	59.59%	4.14%	10.09%		3.80%	CA	58.58%	55	55	2.58%	10.20%	1
82	CT	7	-0.36%	1,372	1,301	608	679	14	46.73%	52.19%	1.08%	-5.46%	46.9%	52%	1.10%	-5.10%	3.53%		40.46%	58.57%	0.97%	-0.17%		5.20%	CT	47.24%			3.53%	-0.18%	0
83	FL	27	14.50%	4,302	2,025	927	1,087	11	45.78%	53.68%	0.54%	-7.90%	38.5%	60.9%	0.60%	-22.40%	2.82%		42.19%	56.37%	1.44%	7.28%		2.40%	FL	46.03%			2.82%	7.25%	1
84	IA	7	0.00%	1,226	1,784	970	788	26	54.37%	44.17%	1.46%	10.20%	54.7%	44.5%	0.80%	10.20%	3.00%	7	38.34%	60.35%	1.31%	-0.33%		na	IA	55.18%	7		3.00%	0.00%	0
85	IL	21	9.95%	4,559	1,757	943	805	9	53.67%	45.82%	0.51%	7.85%	48.6%	50.7%	0.70%	-2.10%	3.03%		49.46%	49.23%	1.31%	5.07%		9.20%	IL	53.95%	21	21	3.03%	4.98%	1
86	IN	11	17.41%	2,169	1,189	576	608	5	48.44%	51.14%	0.42%	-2.69%	39.7%	59.8%	0.50%	-20.10%	3.69%		46.78%	51.56%	1.66%	8.74%		0.60%	IN	48.65%			3.69%	8.70%	1
87	MA	12	4.40%	2,633	1,172	647	504	21	55.20%	43.00%	1.79%	12.20%	53.2%	45.4%	1.40%	7.80%	3.69%	12	49.47%	49.38%	1.15%	2.00%		6.40%	MA	56.21%	12		3.69%	2.20%	0
88	MD	10	14.56%	1,714	1,158	641	506	11	55.35%	43.70%	0.95%	11.66%	48.2%	51.1%	0.70%	-2.90%	3.72%		83.55%	13.40%	3.05%	7.15%		5.20%	MD	55.88%	10	10	3.72%	7.28%	1
89	MI	17	11.45%	3,669	1,550	793	738	19	51.16%	47.61%	1.23%	3.55%	45.7%	53.6%	0.70%	-7.90%	3.23%		43.48%	55.88%	0.64%	5.46%		1.20%	MI	51.80%	17	17	3.23%	5.72%	1
90	MN	9	-0.68%	2,097	1,171	613	539	19	52.35%	46.03%	1.62%	6.32%	52.9%	45.9%	1.20%	7.00%	3.72%	9	39.71%	59.67%	0.62%	-0.55%		-1.20%	MN	53.21%	9		3.72%	-0.34%	0
91	MO	11	3.12%	1,714	1,278	627	637	14	49.06%	49.84%	1.10%	-0.78%	47.9%	51.8%	0.30%	-3.90%	3.56%		38.60%	60.65%	0.75%	1.16%		-0.20%	MO	49.60%			3.56%	1.56%	0
92	MS	6	6.81%	932	1,201	512	680	9	42.63%	56.62%	0.75%	-13.99%	39.1%	59.9%	1.00%	-20.80%	3.64%		54.57%	44.45%	0.98%	3.53%		0.60%	MS	42.95%			3.64%	3.41%	0
93	NC	15	10.43%	2,134	1,500	703	791	6	46.87%	52.73%	0.40%	-5.87%	41.7%	58%	0.30%	-16.30%	3.28%		54.71%	44.50%	0.79%	5.17%		5.00%	NC	47.05%			3.28%	5.22%	1
94	NJ	15	9.11%	3,100	1,314	619	678	17	47.11%	51.60%	1.29%	-4.49%	42.6%	56.2%	1.20%	-13.60%	3.51%		37.31%	60.78%	1.91%	4.51%		6.60%	NJ	47.73%			3.51%	4.55%	1
95	NM	5	7.61%	521	1,301	653	619	29	50.19%	47.58%	2.23%	2.61%	46.9%	51.9%	1.20%	-5.00%	3.53%		53.20%	46.09%	0.71%	3.29%		7.20%	NM	51.34%	5	5	3.53%	3.81%	1
96	NV	5	10.38%	350	838	365	454	19	43.56%	54.18%	2.27%	-10.62%	37.9%	58.9%	3.20%	-21.00%	4.37%		39.99%	59.54%	0.47%	5.66%		0.40%	NV	44.57%			4.37%	5.19%	1
97	NY	31	10.15%	6,486	1,846	1,044	781	21	56.55%	42.31%	1.14%	14.25%	51.6%	47.5%	0.90%	4.10%	2.93%	31	44.36%	53.99%	1.65%	4.95%		1.60%	NY	57.21%	31		2.93%	5.07%	1
98	OH	20	4.51%	4,394	1,550	722	821	7	46.58%	52.97%	0.45%	-6.39%	44.1%	55%	0.90%	-10.90%	3.23%		44.38%	55.02%	0.60%	2.48%		1.60%	OH	46.79%			3.23%	2.26%	0
99	OR	7	6.55%	1,171	800	436	346	18	54.50%	43.25%	2.25%	11.25%	51.3%	46.6%	2.10%	4.70%	4.47%	7	45.26%	53.07%	1.67%	3.20%		7.40%	OR	55.75%	7		4.47%	3.28%	0
100	PA	21	3.04%	4,536	1,629	813	801	15	49.91%	49.17%	0.92%	0.74%	48.4%	50.7%	0.90%	-2.30%	3.16%		56.43%	42.18%	1.39%	1.51%		0.80%	PA	50.37%	21	21	3.16%	1.52%	0
101	TX	34	11.85%	5,427	2,004	985	1,002	17	49.15%	50.00%	0.85%	-0.85%	43.3%	56%	0.70%	-12.70%	2.85%		50.80%	48.51%	0.69%	5.85%		-0.80%	TX	49.57%			2.85%	5.93%	1
102	VT	3	5.44%	243	773	386	371	16	49.94%	47.99%	2.07%	1.94%	47.6%	51.1%	1.30%	-3.50%	4.58%		47.28%	51.94%	0.78%	2.34%		-0.60%	VT	50.99%	3	3	4.58%	2.72%	0
103	WA	11	3.67%	1,865	1,121	578	520	23	51.56%	46.39%	2.05%	5.17%	50%	48.5%	1.50%	1.50%	3.80%	11	46.27%	52.97%	0.76%	1.56%		5.40%	WA	52.64%	11		3.80%	1.84%	0
104	WI	10	-1.15%	2,192	1,386	704	670	12	50.79%	48.34%	0.87%	2.45%	51.4%	47.8%	0.80%	3.60%	3.42%	10	52.31%	46.50%	1.19%	-0.61%		0.20%	WI	51.24%	10		3.42%	-0.57%	0
105
106	Total	370	9.76%	68,693	34,016	17,231	16,391	394	51.60%	47.31%	1.08%	4.29%	46.79%	52.26%	0.94%	-5.47%	3.34%	87	45.96%	52.42%	1.62%	3.72%		2.96%			219	132	3.47%	3.82%	12
107				Unweighted	Average	50.66%	48.19%	1.16%	35,449	32,499	745	National	45.65%	53.37%	0.98%	-7.73%
108													41,809	48,887	899	-7,077
109									50.46%	48.56%	0.98%	22,420	42.14%	56.75%	1.11%	recorded	26 states
110													9,448	12,723	249	recorded
111						exit 24 stats		51.6/47.3%	35,449	32,499	745	68,693	10,538	11,659	224	est exit 26
112						est exit 26		47/52%	10,538	11,659	224	22,420	44,897	45,222	994	rec+exit
113						total			45,986	44,158	969	91,113	49.28%	49.63%	1.09%
114									50.47%	48.46%	1.06%	100.00%
115
116
117					1988 CBS/NYT Exit Poll Demographics								1988 ABC Exit Poll Demographics
118						Respondent sample								Respondent sample
119					Total	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other		Total	Dem	Rep	Other	Dem	Rep	Other
120				Pres	11,596	5,771	5,695	130	49.77%	49.11%	1.12%	Pres	95,167	44,600	49,329	1,238	46.86%	51.83%	1.30%
121				House	10,438	5,666	4,249	523	54.28%	40.71%	5.01%	House	89,213	47,264	40,853	1,096	52.98%	45.79%	1.23%
122				Voted 84	9,723	3,361	5,909	453	34.57%	60.77%	4.66%	Voted 84	27,875	8,796	17,771	1,308	31.56%	63.75%	4.69%
123				Party ID	10,936	4,487	3,560	2,889	41.03%	32.55%	26.42%	Party ID	91,220	38,757	34,252	18,211	42.49%	37.55%	19.96%
124												Senate	63,705	33,650	29,358	697	52.82%	46.08%	1.09%
125						Lib	Mod	Con	Lib	Mod	Con			Lib	Mod	Con	Lib	Mod	Con
126				Philosophy	10,415	2,114	5,117	3,184	20.30%	49.13%	30.57%		30,191	7,987	12,290	9,914	26.45%	40.71%	32.84%
127
128				Note: in 1984, Reagan won by 59.7-41.3%. ABC and CBS may be understating the Dukakis vote.
129				ABC and CBS show the Democrats easily winning Congress by 7-13%.
130				They also show a clear Democratic 5-9% advantage in Party ID.
131
132				Cast	45.56	53.46	0.97				No Exit Polls
133			102,245	91,595	45.65	53.37	0.98				25,561	22,420	42.14	56.75	1.11
134			Cast	Rec	Duk	Bush	Other				Cast	Rec	Duk	Bush	Other
135	AK		188	200	36.27	59.59	4.14		AK		188	200	36.27	59.59	4.14
136	AL		1,685	1,378	39.86	59.17	0.97		AL		1,685	1,378	39.86	59.17	0.97
137	AR		972	828	42.19	56.37	1.44		AR		972	828	42.19	56.37	1.44
138	AZ		1,339	1,172	38.74	59.95	1.31		AZ		1,339	1,172	38.74	59.95	1.31
139	CA *		10,440	9,887	47.56	51.13	1.31
140	CO		1,533	1,372	45.28	53.06	1.66		CO		1,533	1,372	45.28	53.06	1.66
141	CT *		1,552	1,443	46.87	51.98	1.15
142	DC		285	193	82.65	14.3	3.05		DC		285	193	82.65	14.3	3.05
143	DE		246	250	43.48	55.88	0.64		DE		246	250	43.48	55.88	0.64
144	FL*		5,158	4,302	38.51	60.87	0.62
145	GA		2,247	1,810	39.5	59.75	0.75		GA		2,247	1,810	39.5	59.75	0.75
146	HI		408	354	54.27	44.75	0.98		HI		408	354	54.27	44.75	0.98
147	IA *		1,318	1,226	54.71	44.5	0.79
148	ID		435	409	36.01	62.08	1.91		ID		435	409	36.01	62.08	1.91
149	IL *		5,073	4,559	48.6	50.69	0.71
150	IN *		2,449	2,169	39.69	59.84	0.47
151	KS		1,074	993	42.56	55.79	1.65		KS		1,074	993	42.56	55.79	1.65
152	KY		1,325	1,323	43.88	55.52	0.60		KY		1,325	1,323	43.88	55.52	0.60
153	LA		1,979	1,628	44.06	54.27	1.67		LA		1,979	1,628	44.06	54.27	1.67
154	MA *		2,827	2,633	53.23	45.38	1.39
155	MD *		1,875	1,714	48.2	51.11	0.69
156	ME		590	555	43.88	55.34	0.78		ME		590	555	43.88	55.34	0.78
157	MI *		4,018	3,669	45.67	53.57	0.76
158	MN *		2,182	2,097	52.91	45.9	1.19
159	MO *		2,422	2,093	47.85	51.83	0.32
160	MS *		1,132	932	39.07	59.89	1.04
161	MT		390	366	46.2	52.07	1.73		MT		390	366	46.2	52.07	1.73
162	NC *		2,513	2,134	41.71	57.97	0.32
163	ND		335	297	42.97	56.03	1.00		ND		335	297	42.97	56.03	1.00
164	NE		725	662	39.2	60.15	0.65		NE		725	662	39.2	60.15	0.65
165	NH		474	451	36.33	62.49	1.18		NH		474	451	36.33	62.49	1.18
166	NJ *		3,453	3,100	42.6	56.24	1.16
167	NM *		567	521	46.9	51.86	1.24
168	NV *		371	350	37.92	58.86	3.22
169	NY *		7,174	6,486	51.62	47.52	0.86
170	OH *		4,926	4,394	44.15	55	0.85
171	OK		1,282	1,171	41.28	57.93	0.79		OK		1,282	1,171	41.28	57.93	0.79
172	OR *		1,293	1,202	51.28	46.61	2.11
173	PA *		4,955	4,536	48.39	50.7	0.91
174	RI		455	405	55.64	43.93	0.43		RI		455	405	55.64	43.93	0.43
175	SC		1,216	986	37.58	61.5	0.92		SC		1,216	986	37.58	61.5	0.92
176	SD		360	313	46.51	52.85	0.64		SD		360	313	46.51	52.85	0.64
177	TN		1,857	1,636	41.55	57.89	0.56		TN		1,857	1,636	41.55	57.89	0.56
178	TX *		6,186	5,427	43.35	55.95	0.70
179	UT		731	647	32.05	66.22	1.73		UT		731	647	32.05	66.22	1.73
180	VA		2,504	2,192	39.23	59.74	1.03		VA		2,504	2,192	39.23	59.74	1.03
181	VT *		262	243	47.58	51.1	1.32
182	WA *		2,064	1,865	50.05	48.46	1.49
183	WI *		2,474	2,192	51.41	47.8	0.79
184	WV		730	653	52.2	47.46	0.34		WV		730	653	52.2	47.46	0.34
185	WY		196	177	38.01	60.53	1.46		WY		196	177	38.01	60.53	1.46


1	Table A-9. Reported Voting Rates in Presidential Election Years, by Selected Characteristics: November 1964 to 2008
2
3	(Numbers in thousands)
4	Characteristic	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
5	Mort												5.00%
6	Total, voting age	110,604	116,535	136,203	146,548	157,085	169,963	178,098	185,684	193,651	202,609	215,694	225,499
7	Total votes cast	76,671	78,964	85,766	86,698	93,066	101,878	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
8	Total votes recorded	70,651	72,970	77,744	81,532	86,575	92,653	91,595	104,424	96,275	105,417	122,294	132,310
9
10	Net Uncounted votes	6,020	5,994	8,022	5,166	6,491	9,225	10,629	9,442	8,742	5,409	3,442	-1,166
11	NUV/ Total Cast	7.85%	7.59%	9.35%	5.96%	6.97%	9.05%	10.40%	8.29%	8.32%	4.88%	2.74%	-0.89%
12	Votes Cast %	63.9	67.8	63.0	59.2	59.2	59.9	57.4	61.3	54.2	54.7	58.3	58.2
13
14	Prior election died		3,533	3,649	3,887	4,077	4,329	4,633	4,580	5,221	4,814	5,271	6,287
15	Prior election alive		73,138	75,316	81,879	82,621	88,737	97,245	97,644	108,645	100,203	105,555	119,449
16	Prior election turnout rate		96.00%	92.00%	94.00%	94.00%	95.00%	94.00%	96.00%	88.00%	96.00%	98.00%	97.00%
17
18	Prior election turnout		70,213	69,290	76,966	77,664	84,300	91,411	93,738	95,607	96,195	103,444	115,866
19	New voters		8,751	16,476	9,732	15,402	17,578	10,813	20,128	9,410	14,631	22,292	15,278
20	Return+new voters		78,964	85,766	86,698	93,066	101,878	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
21	New voters % Total Cast		11.08%	19.21%	11.23%	16.55%	17.25%	10.58%	17.68%	8.96%	13.20%	17.73%	11.65%
22
23	Race and Hispanic Origin
24	White	70.7	69.1	64.5	60.9	60.9	61.4	59.1	63.6	56.0	56.4	60.3	59.6
25	White non-Hispanic	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	62.8	63.3	61.8	66.9	59.6	60.4	65.8	64.8
26	Black	58.5	57.6	52.1	48.7	50.5	55.8	51.5	54.0	50.6	53.5	56.3	60.8
27	Asian and Pacific Islander	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	27.3	25.7	25.4	29.8	32.1
28	Hispanic (of any race)	(NA)	(NA)	37.5	31.8	29.9	32.6	28.8	28.9	26.7	27.5	28.0	31.6
29
30	Sex
31	Male	71.9	69.8	64.1	59.6	59.1	59.0	56.4	60.2	52.8	53.1	56.3	55.7
32	Female	67.0	66.0	62.0	58.8	59.4	60.8	58.3	62.3	55.5	56.2	60.1	60.4
33
34	Age
35	18 to 24 years	50.9	50.4	49.6	42.2	39.9	40.8	36.2	42.8	32.4	32.3	41.9	44.3
36	25 to 44 years	69.0	66.6	62.7	58.7	58.7	58.4	54.0	58.3	49.2	49.8	52.2	51.9
37	45 to 64 years	75.9	74.9	70.8	68.7	69.3	69.8	67.9	70.0	64.4	64.1	66.6	65.0
38	65 years and over	66.3	65.8	63.5	62.2	65.1	67.7	68.8	70.1	67.0	67.6	68.9	68.1
39
40	Northeast, Midwest, and West
41
42	Total, voting age	78,174	81,594	93,653	99,403	106,524	112,376	117,373	122,025	125,571	130,774	138,505	143,097
43	Total voted	58,282	57,970	62,193	60,829	64,963	69,183	69,130	76,276	69,467	72,385	82,224	83,608
44	Percent voted	74.6	71.0	66.4	61.2	61.0	61.6	58.9	62.5	55.3	55.4	59.4	58.4
45
46	Race and Hispanic Origin
47	White	74.7	71.8	67.5	62.6	62.4	63.0	60.4	64.9	57.4	57.5	61.8	60.8
48	White non-Hispanic	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	64.3	65.0	63.3	68.5	61.0	61.6	67.3	65.5
49	Black	72.0	64.8	56.7	52.2	52.8	58.9	55.6	53.8	51.4	53.1	56.7	58.3
50	Asian and Pacific Islander	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	27.9	26.3	26.1	30.7	33.8
51	Hispanic (of any race)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	29.8	32.8	26.8	27.4	26.3	26.8	28.2	32.6
52
53	South
54
55	Total, voting age	32,429	34,941	42,550	47,145	50,561	57,587	60,725	63,659	68,080	71,835	77,188	82,402
56	Total voted	18,389	20,994	23,573	25,869	28,103	32,695	33,094	37,590	35,550	38,441	43,512	47,536
57	Percent voted	56.7	60.1	55.4	54.9	55.6	56.8	54.5	59.0	52.2	53.5	56.4	57.7
58
59	Race and Hispanic Origin
60	White	59.5	61.9	57.0	57.1	57.4	58.1	56.4	60.8	53.4	54.2	57.6	57.7
61	White non-Hispanic	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	59.2	59.8	58.5	63.6	56.7	58.2	62.8	63.4
62	Black1	44.0	51.6	47.8	45.7	48.2	53.2	48.0	54.3	50.0	53.9	55.9	62.9
63	Asian and Pacific Islander	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	24.5	22.6	22.2	25.7	25.4
64	Hispanic (of any race)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	(NA)	30.1	32.4	32.9	32.0	27.6	28.7	27.6	30.0
65	Footnotes:
66	Note: NA Not available.
67
68	Note: Because of changes in the Current Population Survey race categories beginning in 2003, 2004 and 2008 data on race are not directly comparable with
69	data from earlier years.
70
71	Note: Federal surveys now give respondents the option of reporting more than one race. Therefore, two basic ways of defining a race group are possible. A group such as Asian may be defined as those who reported Asian and no other race (the race-alone or single-race concept) or as those who reported Asian regardless of whether they also reported another race (the race-alone-or-in-combination concept). This table shows data for people who reported they were the single race White and not Hispanic, people who reported the single race Black, and people who reported the single race Asian. Use of the single-race populations does not imply that it is the preferred method of presenting or analyzing data.
72	1 Black category includes other races in 1964.
73	2 Prior to 1972, data are for people 21 to 24 years of age with the exception of those aged 18 to 24 in Georgia and Kentucky, 19 to 24 in Alaska,
74	and 20 to 24 in Hawaii.
75
76	Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys 1968 to 2008.
77	Internet Release date: Month July, 2009


1
2		2004	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
3		Respondents	Exit		Recorded
4	Nat Exit Poll	13660	51.71	46.95	48.26	50.73	MoE+Cluster	Red shift	RS - MoE	MoE
5	2-party		52.41	47.59	48.75	51.25	1.09	3.66	2.82	0.84
6	Cluster	1.3						To GOP	RS > MoE
7								42	23	2-pty		MoE	23
8	2004	Total Vote	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	MoE+Cluster	Red shift	RS-MoE	MoE	Sample	1.3*.98 / sqrt(n)	RS-MoE	Diff MoE
9		122293	51.09	47.59	48.26	50.73	3.09	2.98	-0.11	2.38	1,821	2.99	0.00	0.11
10		average	49.43	49.07	46.51	52.28	3.43	3.06	-0.37	2.64	1,494	3.30	-0.23	0.14
11
12	AL	1883	39.7	59.1	36.8	62.5	4.60	3.14	-1.47	3.54	736	4.70	-1.56	-0.09
13	AK	313	44.7	51.9	35.5	61.1	3.70	9.19	5.49	2.85	1,177	3.71	5.48	-0.01
14	AZ	2013	46.3	52.8	44.4	54.9	2.91	1.97	-0.94	2.24	1,907	2.92	-0.94	-0.01
15	AR	1055	44.4	54.8	44.5	54.3	3.32	-0.28	-3.60	2.55	1,457	3.34	-3.62	-0.02
16	CA	12420	53.9	44.2	54.3	44.4	2.59	-0.10	-2.69	1.99	2,391	2.61	-2.70	-0.01
17
18	CO	2130	49.3	49.2	47	51.7	2.53	2.39	-0.14	1.95	2,534	2.53	-0.14	0.00
19	CT	1579	62.5	36.0	54.3	43.9	4.16	8.05	3.89	3.20	872	4.31	3.73	-0.16
20	DC	228	90.7	8.1	89.2	9.3	2.47	1.37	-1.10	1.90	795	4.52	-3.15	-2.05
21	DE	375	63.3	36.0	53.3	45.8	4.43	9.89	5.47	3.40	766	4.60	5.29	-0.18
22	FL	7610	50.8	48.0	47.1	52.1	2.38	3.88	1.50	1.83	2,862	2.38	1.50	0.00
23
24	GA	3302	41.8	57.4	41.4	58	3.13	0.48	-2.65	2.41	1,618	3.17	-2.69	-0.04
25	HI	429	61.3	38.7	54	45.3	4.98	6.90	1.93	3.83	622	5.11	1.80	-0.13
26	ID	598	27.8	70.3	30.3	68.4	4.06	-2.17	-6.23	3.12	801	4.50	-6.67	-0.44
27	IL	5274	56.0	43.3	54.8	44.5	3.34	1.20	-2.14	2.57	1,434	3.36	-2.17	-0.03
28	IN	2468	39.5	59.5	39.3	59.9	4.07	0.31	-3.76	3.13	941	4.15	-3.84	-0.09
29
30	IA	1507	49.3	49.0	49.2	49.9	2.54	0.51	-2.03	1.96	2,512	2.54	-2.03	0.00
31	KS	1188	34.2	64.6	36.6	62	4.69	-2.52	-7.21	3.61	667	4.93	-7.45	-0.24
32	KY	1796	42.4	56.1	39.7	59.6	3.89	3.09	-0.80	2.99	1,050	3.93	-0.84	-0.04
33	LA	1943	44.2	54.5	42.2	56.7	3.09	2.08	-1.01	2.38	1,683	3.11	-1.02	-0.02
34	ME	741	55.4	42.3	53.6	44.6	2.83	2.03	-0.80	2.18	1,991	2.86	-0.83	-0.03
35
36	MD	2387	54.8	43.8	55.9	42.9	3.88	-0.96	-4.84	2.98	1,065	3.90	-4.86	-0.02
37	MA	2912	64.7	33.1	61.9	36.8	4.04	3.25	-0.79	3.11	889	4.27	-1.02	-0.23
38	MI	4839	53.9	44.7	51.2	47.8	2.51	2.87	0.35	1.93	2,552	2.52	0.34	-0.01
39	MN	2828	56.3	42.4	51.1	47.6	2.70	5.19	2.50	2.07	2,190	2.72	2.47	-0.03
40	MS	1152	45.6	53.7	39.8	59.4	4.49	5.73	1.24	3.46	799	4.51	1.23	-0.02
41
42	MO	2731	50.4	48.7	46.1	53.3	2.68	4.44	1.76	2.06	2,264	2.68	1.76	0.00
43	MT	450	39.3	56.7	38.6	59.1	4.96	1.55	-3.41	3.82	638	5.04	-3.49	-0.08
44	NE	778	36.4	62.4	32.7	65.9	4.39	3.61	-0.78	3.37	785	4.55	-0.94	-0.16
45	NV	830	52.4	46.5	47.9	50.5	2.73	4.30	1.57	2.10	2,170	2.73	1.56	-0.01
46	NH	678	56.7	42.0	50.2	48.9	2.91	6.73	3.81	2.24	1,871	2.95	3.78	-0.03
47
48	NJ	3612	59.1	38.6	52.9	46.2	3.19	6.95	3.75	2.46	1,520	3.27	3.68	-0.07
49	NM	756	53.9	44.3	49	49.8	2.83	5.19	2.35	2.18	2,006	2.84	2.34	-0.01
50	NY	7391	62.1	36.2	58.4	40.1	3.23	3.80	0.57	2.48	1,452	3.34	0.45	-0.12
51	NC	3501	46.1	53.0	43.6	56	2.73	2.76	0.03	2.10	2,167	2.74	0.03	-0.01
52	ND	313	31.4	66.8	35.5	62.9	4.53	-3.99	-8.52	3.49	687	4.86	-8.85	-0.33
53
54	OH	5628	54.1	45.7	48.7	50.8	2.82	5.21	2.38	2.17	2,020	2.83	2.37	-0.01
55	OK	1464	36.3	62.6	34.4	65.6	3.08	2.42	-0.66	2.37	1,590	3.20	-0.77	-0.12
56	OR	1837	52.2	46.3	51.3	47.2	4.02	0.90	-3.12	3.09	1,000	4.03	-3.13	-0.01
57	PA	5770	56.6	42.9	50.9	48.4	2.75	5.58	2.84	2.11	2,107	2.78	2.81	-0.03
58	RI	437	63.3	34.5	59.4	38.7	4.28	4.05	-0.23	3.29	809	4.48	-0.43	-0.20
59
60	SC	1618	47.8	50.6	40.9	58	3.02	7.12	4.10	2.32	1,782	3.02	4.10	0.00
61	SD	388	35.1	62.6	38.4	59.9	3.11	-3.01	-6.12	2.39	1,544	3.24	-6.26	-0.13
62	TN	2437	41.6	56.4	42.5	56.8	2.98	-0.25	-3.24	2.29	1,783	3.02	-3.27	-0.03
63	TX	7411	41.5	57.5	38.2	61.1	2.97	3.45	0.48	2.28	1,794	3.01	0.44	-0.04
64	UT	928	31.5	66.3	26	71.5	4.28	5.33	1.05	3.29	775	4.58	0.75	-0.30
65
66	VT	312	68.8	27.8	58.9	38.8	4.37	10.44	6.07	3.36	698	4.82	5.61	-0.46
67	VA	3198	52.7	46.8	45.5	53.7	3.36	7.04	3.67	2.59	1,431	3.37	3.67	-0.01
68	WA	2859	56.5	41.9	52.8	45.6	2.70	3.70	1.00	2.08	2,178	2.73	0.97	-0.03
69	WV	756	41.7	56.9	43.2	56.1	3.03	-1.13	-4.16	2.33	1,728	3.06	-4.20	-0.04
70	WI	2997	52.0	46.8	49.7	49.3	2.64	2.39	-0.26	2.03	2,321	2.64	-0.26	0.00
71	WY	243	28.9	68.2	29.1	68.9	4.22	0.25	-3.97	3.25	761	4.62	-4.36	-0.39


1	richardcharnin.com
2
3	http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
4			Margin of Error and corresponding Win Probability over a range of respondents and vote shares
5
6			N= poll sample respondents
7			S= winning 2-party poll share
8			C= Cluster effect (exit poll only, zero for pre-election polls)
9			Formulas:
10			MoE = (1+C) * .98 / sqrt (N) is a good approximation when S is 50-60%
11			MoE = Margin of error = (1+C) * 1.96 * sqrt (S* (1-S) / N) is a more general formula used below.
12			Win Probability = NORMDIST(S, .5, MoE/1.96, true)
13
14			The confidence level (probability) is 95% that the True Vote will fall within the range: S - MoE < S < S + MoE
15
16			Sample Input:			2-party
17			N - respondents	13660	13660	52.38%	National Exit
18			S - EP win share	52.4%	52.4%	51.78%	State Aggregate
19			C- cluster effect	30%	30%
20
21			Calculations:
22			Margin of Error	1.09%
23			Win Probability	100.00%
24
25
26					2-party Winning Poll Share (S)
27			51.8%	52.4%	53%	54%	62%	70%	80%	90%
28				2004 NEP		2004 Ohio	2008 NEP
29
30						Margin of Error
31		N-Sample
32		500	5.69%	5.69%	5.69%	5.68%	5.53%	5.22%	4.56%	3.42%
33		1000	4.03%	4.02%	4.02%	4.02%	3.91%	3.69%	3.22%	2.42%
34		1500	3.29%	3.29%	3.28%	3.28%	3.19%	3.01%	2.63%	1.97%
35	2004 Ohio	2020	2.83%	2.83%	2.83%	2.83%	2.75%	2.60%	2.27%	1.70%
36		3000	2.32%	2.32%	2.32%	2.32%	2.26%	2.13%	1.86%	1.40%
37		10000	1.27%	1.27%	1.27%	1.27%	1.24%	1.17%	1.02%	0.76%
38	2004 NEP	13660	1.09%	1.09%	1.09%	1.09%	1.06%	1.00%	0.87%	0.65%
39	2008 NEP	17836	0.95%	0.95%	0.95%	0.95%	0.93%	0.87%	0.76%	0.57%
40
41						Win Probability
42
43		500	73.22%	79.58%	84.94%	91.63%	100.00%	100%	100%	100%
44		1000	80.96%	87.88%	92.81%	97.45%	100%	100%	100%	100%
45		1500	85.84%	92.39%	96.33%	99.16%	100%	100%	100%	100%
46	2004 Ohio	2020	89.35%	95.17%	98.11%	99.72%	100%	100%	100%	100%
47		3000	93.55%	97.86%	99.43%	99.96%	100%	100%	100%	100%
48		10000	99.72%	99.99%	100.00%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
49	2004 NEP	13660	99.94%	100.00%	100.00%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
50	2008 NEP	17836	99.99%	100.00%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%


1	Timestamp	Who did you vote for in 2000?	Sample Question 2
2
3
4		1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded
5	8/23/2016 5:00:39		1
6
7		Richard Charnin
8
9
10		This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2016 Presidential Elections.
11
12		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116
13		E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros)
14		Data Source: Roper Center UConn
15		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
16
17		Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals.
18		Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
19		The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models..
20		https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity
21		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
22		True Vote Models
23		The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares.
24		The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008.
25		http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm			http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php
26
27		Data Summary
28		The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election true vote models and unadjusted exit polls
29		- Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0%
30		- Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4%
31		- Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7%
32		- True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote)
33		- True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast)
34		- True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll)
35		- True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive)
36
37
38		States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote
39
40		1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
41		Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes,
42
43		1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
44		Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
45
46		1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
47		Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
48
49		2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
50		Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
51
52		2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
53		Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
54
55		2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
56		Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
57
58		Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote.
59													EV
60													358
61													371
62													420
63		Presidential Summary											364
64		(in percent)											404
65				1988-2008
66			1988-2008	Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
67			Votes Cast	688,813	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
68			Recorded	652,315	91,595	104,424	96,275	105,417	122,294	132,310	129,132	136,200
69
70		Recorded Vote	Weighted	Average
71		Democrat	48.15	47.89	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	51.03	48.25
72		Republican	46.02	45.99	53.46	37.46	40.82	47.87	50.72	45.60	47.19	46.17
73		Recorded Margin (RV)	2.12	1.91	-7.82	5.55	8.60	0.51	-2.40	7.27	3.84	2.08
74
75
76		State Exit Polls (unadjusted)
77		Respondents	374,937	62,490	34,016	54,410	69,716	58,215	76,192	82,388	na	102,702
78					24 states
79		Democrat	52.10	51.96	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06	na	49.6
80		Republican	41.39	41.37	47.31	31.68	36.99	44.37	47.59	40.29	na	43.6
81		Exit Poll Margin (SEP)	10.71	10.59	4.29	15.88	15.67	6.42	3.50	17.77	na	6
82		Red Shift	4.29	4.34	6.06	5.17	3.54	2.96	2.95	5.25	na	1.96
83
84		Probability Analysis		Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
85		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131
86		State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average)		3.60%	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%
87		Exit Polls red-shift to GOP		232	21	45	44	34	42	46
88
89		Exit Polls exceeding MoE		135	12	27	19	17	23	37
90		Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP		131	12	27	18	16	22	36
91				4.59E-37
92		Probability of red-shift		2.07E-33	1.21E-04	8.00E-09	5.14E-08	6.56E-03	1.35E-06	1.04E-09
93	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE		2.61E-98	3.57E-10	4.99E-22	1.79E-12	1.97E-10	5.58E-17	4.59E-37
94
95	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP		4.06E-131	1.22E-13	6.94E-30	1.33E-15	7.38E-14	1.11E-15	4.62E-46
96		Pct exceeding MoE		47.81%	50.00%	52.94%	35.29%	31.37%	43.14%	70.59%
97
98		National Exit Poll (unadjusted)		Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2008	2016
99		Respondents	71,436	14,287	11,596	15,236	n/a	13,108	13,660	17,836	n/a
100			Weighted				pre-elect poll
101		Democrat	51.85	51.58	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96		49.6
102		Republican	41.64	41.76	49.11	33.47	37.50	46.27	46.95	37.23		43.6
103		Exit Poll Margin (NEP)	10.21	9.82	0.66	12.84	15.00	2.24	4.76	23.73		6.00
104		Red Shift	4.04	3.96	4.24	3.65	3.20	0.86	3.58	8.23		1.96
105
106		State Exit Poll (WPE)
107		Democrat	50.99	50.75	49.3	45.7	50.2	49.4	51.9	58.0		49.3
108		Republican	43.03	43.12	49.7	34.7	39.8	46.9	47.1	40.5		45.2
109		Exit Poll Margin (WPE)	7.95	7.63	-0.4	11.0	10.4	2.5	4.8	17.5		4.1
110		Red Shift	2.92	2.86	3.71	2.73	0.90	0.99	3.60	5.12		1.01
111
112		True Vote Model
113		Democrat	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0		44.2
114		Republican	40.95	40.98	48.8	30.4	36.5	44.7	45.1	40.4		47.9
115		True Vote Margin (TVM)	12.23	12.02	1.4	20.7	17.1	6.8	8.5	17.6		-3.7
116		Red Shift	5.05	5.06	4.61	7.58	4.25	3.15	5.45	5.17		-2.89
117
118		Margin Discrepancies
119		TVM - RV	10.11	10.11	9.2	15.2	0.5	6.3	10.9	10.3		-5.8
120		TVM - SEP	1.53	1.43	-0.2	4.8	1.4	0.4	5.0	-0.2		-9.7
121		SEP - RV	8.58	8.68	9.3	10.3	6.9	5.9	6.0	10.5		3.9
122		NEP - RV	8.09	7.92	8.3	7.3	6.9	1.7	7.1	16.5		3.9
123
124		Dem Electoral Vote
125		Recorded		287	104	366	376	260	252	365		232
126		Unadjusted Exit Polls		399	260	501	463	401	349	420
127
128		True Vote Model	Weighted	Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008		2016
129		Based on Prior Election
130		1 Recorded Vote	50.37	50.17	48.6	48.8	48.4	48.5	52.3	54.5		46.9
131		2 Votes Cast	51.73	51.57	50.6	50.3	50.0	50.0	53.3	55.2
132		3 Exit Poll	52.68	52.50	50.6	51.2	51.6	50.9	54.3	56.4
133		4 True Vote	53.18	53.00	50.2	51.1	53.6	51.5	53.6	58.0
134
135		2-party Exit Poll share
136		Democrat	55.90	56.59	52.2	60.0	58.7	53.4	51.8	59.0		53.2
137		Republican	44.10	43.41	47.8	40.0	41.3	46.6	48.2	41.0		46.8
138
139
140
141
142
143			Unadj Nat Exit		Unadj State Exit		Recorded		State Exit
144
145		Votes	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	> Moe	Red Shift	RS to GOP
146			51.58	41.76	51.72	41.71	48.34	46.16	232	135	131
147
148	2012	129,132	na	na	na	na	51.03	47.19	na	na	na
149	2008	132,310	60.96	37.23	58.06	40.29	52.87	45.6	46	37	36
150	2004	122,294	51.71	46.95	50.97	47.71	48.28	50.72	42	23	22
151	2000	105,417	48.51	46.27	50.75	44.76	48.38	47.87	34	17	16
152	1996	96,275	52.2	37.5	52.64	37.06	49.18	40.82	44	19	18
153	1992	104,424	46.31	33.47	47.59	31.74	43.01	37.46	45	27	27
154	1988	91,595	49.81	49.15	50.3	48.7	45.64	53.46	21	12	12
155
156	MoE Cluster effect
157	30%
158		Correlation: Recorded Swing vs. EP Shift
159		Swing: change in 2-party unadjusted exit poll share from previous election.
160		Red-shift: Diffrence between 2-party unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote in current election.
161				Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
162		Recorded Swing		0.01	-	0.09	0.06	0.20	-0.16	-0.14
163		Unadj Exit Poll Swing		0.46	-	0.65	0.10	0.57	0.62	0.38
164		E/M 2004 Report (WPE)		0.24	-	0.29	0.15	0.05	0.48	-
165
166
167		In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,192 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset) by 51.7-47.0% (13660 respondents). The pollsters offered the following hypothesis to explain the discrepancy between the exit poll and recorded vote: Kerry voters were more anxious to be polled; 56 Kerry voters agreed to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters. Well, of course - because there WERE approximately 56 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters. The pollster canard was dubbed the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The pollsters applied the hypothesis (without any evidence) by adjusting the National Exit Poll (NEP) in order to have it match the recorded vote.
168
169		The adjusted NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% (45.3 million) were returning Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and 1.0 million did not return to vote. Therefore, there could have been no more than 47 miliion returning Bush voters (38.4%). In other words, there had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, which meant that an impossible 110% of living Bush 2000 voters had to turn out in 2004.
170
171		Returning Gore and Bush 2000 voter percentage of 2004 electorate (1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout).
172
173		We apply the following methods:
174		1) Votes Cast: Gore 51.0 million recorded + 4.5 of 6 million uncounted: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
175		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0 / 38.2%
176		Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
177
178		2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-44.5%.
179		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4 / 37.7%
180		Kerry wins by 53.6-45.1%
181
182		3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%
183		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4 / 37.6%
184		Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
185
186		4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched recorded vote)
187		Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37 / 43% (impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout)
188		Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%
189
190
191		The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote based on an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters. Therefore, the recorded vote must also have been impossible.
192
193		Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.5% and the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. Therefore it is likely that he won by 3-6 million; a 41.4/ 37.7% Gore/Bush returning voter mix is plausible and so Kerry won the True Vote by 53.6-45.1% - a 10.7 million landslide.
194
195
196				2004 NatIonal Exit Poll (unadjusted)
197				Sample	Kerry	Bush	Other
198				13,660	7,064	6,414	182
199					51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
200
201		Final 2004 National Exit Poll
202		(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004; forced to match recorded vote)
203
204	2000	Recorded (mil.)	Alive	2004 Turnout	2004 Recorded	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
205	DNV	-	-	-	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%
206	Gore	51.00	48,454	93%	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%
207	Bush	50.46	47,933	110%	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%
208	Other	3.96	3,798	97%	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%
209
210	Total	105.42	100,185	-	122,294	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
211							59,031	62,040	1,223
212
213
214				True Vote Model
215				(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
216
217				2000	2004 Cast	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
218				DNV	22,381	17.80%	57%	41%	2%
219				Gore	52,055	41.40%	91%	8%	1%
220				Bush	47,403	37.70%	10%	90%	0%
221				Other	3,898	3.10%	64%	17%	19%
222
223				Total	125,737	100%	53.57%	45.07%	1.36%
224							67,362	56,666	1,709
225
226		Bush Approval Ratings
227		For example, to adjust Kerry's 51.1 - 47.5% unadjusted exit poll margin to Bush's 50.7- 48.3% recorded margin in the Final National Exit Poll,
228		Bush's 50.3% unadjusted approval rating was increased to 53%. Corresponding vote shares were increased as well.
229		Bush had just 48% approval in the final pre-election polls.
230		With 48% approval applied to the NEP shares, Kerry had 53.7% (see the sensitivity analysis table below).
231
232		Party-ID
233		Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the recorded vote.
234		There were near-perfect correlations between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID.
235
236		The 2006 midterms further illustrate how unadjusted exit polls are forced to match a bogus recorded vote. Democratic Party ID was reduced from 39.8% to 38%; GOP increased from 33.4% to 36%. Similar adjustments were made in 2004 and 2008.
237
238		2006 Unadjusted National Exit Poll
239		13,251 respondents			Sample	Democrat	Republican	Other	Margin
240		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/tag/congressional_elections.html#.T8yypbA7WAg		House	13251	7470	5476	305
241					Total	56.37%	41.33%	2.30%	15.05%
242
243				Senate	9783	5703	3678	402
244					Total	58.30%	37.60%	4.11%	20.70%
245
246				Governor	10552	5751	4181	620
247					Total	54.50%	39.62%	5.88%	14.88%
248
249				Party ID	12850	5110	4288	3452
250						39.77%	33.37%	26.86%	6.40%
251		2006 Adjusted National Exit Poll
252		Adjusted to match recorded vote		Male	49%	50%	47%	3%
253		http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html		Female	51%	55%	43%	2%
254					100%	52.55%	44.96%	2.49%	7.59%
255				Party ID
256				Democrat	38%	93%	7%	0%
257				Republican	36%	8%	91%	1%
258				Other	26%	57%	39%	4%
259					100%	53.04%	45.56%	1.40%	7.48%
260
261
262		The return voter mix was changed.		Voted 2004	Adjusted Mix	Democrat	Republican	Other	Votes
263		(6,361 respondents)		Kerry	43%	92%	7%	1%	2,735
264				Bush	49%	15%	83%	2%	3,117
265				Other	4%	66%	23%	11%	254
266				Did Not Vote	4%	66%	32%	2%	254
267				Total	100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%	6361
268
269		How Voted 2004	Exit Poll		Unadjusted Mix
270		45.48%	48.43%	Kerry	48.43%	92%	7%	1%	3,081
271		46.49%	43.57%	Bush	43.57%	15%	83%	2%	2,771
272		4.13%	4.00%	Other	4.00%	66%	23%	11%	254
273		3.90%	4.00%	Did Not Vote	4.00%	66%	32%	2%	254
274				Total	100%	56.37%	41.75%	1.88%	6361
275
276
277
278
279		2004 National Exit Poll		Respondents	Kerry	Bush	Other
280		Unadjusted		13,660	7,064	6,414	182
281		Share			51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
282
283
284				2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll				Final National Exit Poll
285		Party - ID		13,660 respondents				(matched to recorded vote)
286
287			Aggregate				Final
288			Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other	Party-ID	Kerry	Bush	Other
289		Democrat	38.76%	91%	9%	0%	37%	90%	10%	0%
290		Republican	35.12%	8%	92%	0%	37%	7%	93%	0%
291		Independent	26.12%	52%	43%	5%	26%	47.62%	48.55%	3.83%
292
293		Share	100%	51.66%	47.03%	1.31%	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
294		Votes	125,736	64,960	59,134	1,642	122,296	59,034	62,044	1,218
295
296
297		Bush Approval
298
299			Actual	Kerry	Bush	Other	Unadjusted	Kerry	Bush	Other
300		Approve	48.00%	9%	90%	1%	50.30%	9%	90%	1%
301		Disapprove	52.00%	95%	4%	1%	49.70%	95%	4%	1%
302
303		Share	100%	53.72%	45.28%	1.00%	100%	51.74%	47.26%	1.00%
304		Votes	125,736	67,545	56,933	1,257	122,296	63,278	57,795	1,223
305
306
307		Sensitivity Analysis
308			Rep	Democratic Party-ID				Total Bush Approval
309			Party-ID	37.00%	38.00%	38.76%	Kerry Bush	50.30%	49.00%	48.00%
310					Kerry share		Appoval		Kerry share
311			35.12%	50.98%	51.37%	51.66%	10%	52.25%	53.35%	54.20%
312			36%	50.52%	50.91%	51.21%	9%	51.74%	52.86%	53.72%
313			37%	50.00%	50.39%	50.69%	8%	51.24%	52.37%	53.24%
314
315
316
317		Democratic Vote Shares
318									Unweighted	Weighted
319			1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	Average	Average
320		State Unadjusted Exit Poll	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06	51.96	52.10
321		National Unadjusted Exit Poll	49.77	46.31	52.20	48.51	51.71	60.96	51.58	51.85
322		State Exit Poll (WPE/IMS)	49.30	45.70	50.20	49.40	51.90	58.00	50.75	50.99
323		True Vote Model	50.20	51.10	53.60	51.50	53.60	58.00	53.00	53.18
324		National Recorded Vote	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	47.89	48.05
325
326		Votes Cast	102.25	113.87	105.01	110.83	125.74	131.46	51.82	52.03
327		Total	689.15
328
329
330
331
332		Related Links
333
334		http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/EvaluationofEdisonMitofskyElectionSystem.pdf
335
336		US Count Votes analysis of the Ohio 2004 exit poll discrepancies
337		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/OH/2004Election/Ohio-Exit-Polls-2004.pdf
338
339		Exit Poll Response
340		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf
341		http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm
342
343		https://www.facebook.com/richard.charnin/posts/735042649871085
344
345
346
347				REp	11	26	16	12	22	36
348				Dem	0	0	0	1	1	1
349


1	Richard Charnin
2
3			Party	ID (1-4)	1
4			State	Pre-elec	National	2020	Trump					National Model
5			Gallup	Polls	Gallup	NEP	Adjusted	Turnout %		Estimated	Turnout
6			1	2	3	4	Shares	Party-iD		Turnout (m)	State	Biden	Trump	Other			2016 vs. 2020
7		Dem	42.1%	36.7%	31%	37%	7%	100%	Dem	61.8	42.1%	87.0%	12.0%	1.0%			Recorded	NEP							Gallup	CA
8		Rep	42.3%	30.8%	31%	36%	2%	100%	Rep	62.2	42.3%	4.0%	96.0%	0.0%			2016	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Other				Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
9		Ind	15.6%	32.6%	38%	27%	11%	100%	Ind	23.0	15.6%	43.0%	52.0%	5.0%			Dem	36	90.4	7.8	1.8	37	36	Dem	48.3%	85%	14%	1%
10										Natl Model	100.0%	45.00%	53.80%	1.20%			Rep	33	8	88	4	36	33	Repub	34.0%	3%	96%	1%
11		Default								Votes	147.00	66.15	79.09	1.77			Ind	31	42	46	12	27	31	Ind	17.7%	39%	55%	6%
12		Dem	42.1%	36.7%	31%	37%	7%	100%		Margin	12.94						Total	100	48.20	46.11	5.69				100.0%	48.98%	49.14%	1.89%
13		Rep	42.3%	30.8%	31%	36%	2%	100%		State Model	100.0%	45.00%	53.80%	1.20%			Forecast	Gallup							17.501	8.572	8.599	0.330
14		Ind	15.6%	32.6%	38%	27%	16%	100%		Votes	147.00	66.15	79.09	1.77			2020	Party-ID	Biden	Trump	Other
15										Margin/EV	12.94	149	389				Dem	31	88	12	0
16	Enter turnout as a % of Party-ID									Recorded	100.0%	51.31%	46.86%	1.83%			Rep	31	3	95	2
17	Enter % adjustments to Trump's recorded vote shares									Votes	158.38	81.27	74.22	2.90			Ind	38	40	55	5
18	Sensitivity analysis in cell A46									Margin/EV	-7.05	306	232				Total	100	43.41	54.07	2.52
19	158.3m bogus votes reported, but only an estimated 142m true votes.
20	Stuffed and illegal ballots...																Recorded	NEP
21								Party-ID	1	Poll =0, Model=1			Previous				2016	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
22				Party-ID Poll		Pre-Elect Poll		Model					Pre-Elect Poll				White	71	37	57	6
23			Dem	Rep	Ind	Biden	Trump	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Date	Biden	Trump	Approval		Black	12	89	8	3
24	1	Reuters	37.0%	29.0%	34.0%	51.0%	41.0%	48.1%	47.1%	4.8%	-1.0%	1014	51.0%	41.0%	42		Other	17	66	28	6
25	2	Zogby	36.0%	34.0%	30.0%	46.0%	43.0%	46.6%	46.2%	7.2%	-0.4%	1013	45.5%	43.6%	51		Total	100	48.17	46.19	5.64
26	3	Rasmussen	37.0%	32.0%	31.0%	48.0%	47.0%	47.2%	48.8%	4.0%	1.7%	1101	48.0%	47.0%	52
27	4	NBC	35.0%	27.0%	38.0%	53.0%	39.0%	49.3%	44.3%	6.4%	-5.0%	1020	53.0%	39.0%	44		Forecast	Census
28	5	Fox	42.0%	37.0%	21.0%	53.0%	43.0%	50.1%	46.0%	3.9%	-4.1%	1006	53.0%	43.0%	47		2020	Pct	Biden	Trump	Other
29	6	CNN	31.0%	26.0%	43.0%	57.0%	41.0%	52.6%	45.0%	2.4%	-7.5%	1004	53.0%	42.0%	40		White	73.3	36	62	2
30	7	WaPo/ABC	37.0%	29.0%	34.0%	55.0%	43.0%	52.0%	46.8%	1.2%	-5.2%	1009	55.0%	43.0%	45		Black	12.4	86	13	1
31	8	YouGov	37.4%	27.3%	35.3%	46.0%	38.0%	43.3%	45.1%	1.0%	1.9%	1006	46.0%	38.0%	45		Other	14.3	62	35	3
32	9	The Hill	37.0%	32.0%	31.0%	46.0%	42.0%	46.7%	45.7%	7.7%	-1.0%	1028	45.0%	40.0%	46		Total	100	45.92	52.06	2.02
33	10	IBD/TIPP	37.3%	34.4%	28.3%	48.8%	45.6%	48.2%	47.2%	1.6%	-1.0%	1101	50.7%	44.3%	46
34		Average	36.7%	30.8%	32.6%	50.4%	42.3%	48.4%	46.2%	4.0%	-2.2%		50.0%	42.1%	45.8
35
36			SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS															Key states	EV	TRUMP	BIDEN	Margin
37		Party ID	Dem	Rep	Ind				Adjusted Party-ID		Dem	Rep	Ind	Total				Total	146	54.8%	44.0%	4,905
38		State	42.1%	42.3%	15.6%				1 Party-ID	Gallup	42.1%	42.3%	15.6%	100.0%				AZ	11	55.5%	43.3%	383
39		Turnout	100%	100%	100%				2 Turnout		100%	100%	100%					GA	16	55.9%	43.0%	599
40		Adjusted	42.1%	42.3%	15.6%				3 Party-ID*Turnout		42.1%	42.3%	15.6%	100.0%				MI	16	53.3%	45.4%	403
41		Trump%	12.0%	96.0%	52.0%				Adj Turnout=2*3		42.1%	42.3%	15.6%	100.0%				MN	10	53.4%	45.4%	243
42		Base case	Biden	Trump					Adj Turnout/M39		42.1%	42.3%	15.6%	100.0%				NV	6	56.0%	42.8%	172
43		Vote share	45.0%	53.8%							42.1%	42.3%	15.6%					PA	20	54.5%	44.5%	640
44		Votes	66.1	79.1							State				Vote Shares			VA	13	55.2%	43.6%	479
45	% Rep	96.0%		% Dem						Dem	Rep	Ind		Biden	Trump	Other		WI	10	54.4%	44.3%	309
46		10.0%	11.0%	12.0%	13.0%	14.0%				42.05%	42.32%	15.63%		45.00%	53.80%	1.20%		FL	29	54.9%	43.9%	1,130
47	% Ind			Trump					Adjusted	-2.00%	2.00%							NC	15	54.7%	44.1%	547
48	54%	53.3%	53.7%	54.1%	54.5%	55.0%			State avg	40.42%	44.51%	15.07%	Avg	43.42%	55.42%	1.16%
49	53%	53.1%	53.5%	54.0%	54.4%	54.8%			Party-ID	42.05%	42.32%	15.63%	Wtd	45.00%	53.80%	1.20%
50	52%	53.0%	53.4%	53.8%	54.2%	54.6%
51	51%	52.8%	53.2%	53.6%	54.1%	54.5%						Pre-election Polls
52	50%	52.6%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%	54.3%			Party-ID	Reuters					Party-ID	Zogby
53				Votes				LV	State	Biden	Trump	Other			State	Biden	Trump	Other
54	54%	78.3	78.9	79.5	80.2	80.8		Dem	42.1%	92%	5%	3.0%		Dem	42.1%	91.0%	6.0%	3.0%
55	53%	78.1	78.7	79.3	79.9	80.6		Rep	42.3%	6%	93%	1.0%		Rep	42.3%	6.0%	91.0%	3.0%
56	52%	77.9	78.5	79.1	79.7	80.3		Ind	15.6%	44%	36%	20.0%		Ind	15.6%	37.0%	33.0%	30.0%
57	51%	77.6	78.2	78.9	79.5	80.1		Calc	100.0%	48.1%	47.1%	4.8%		Calc	100.0%	46.6%	46.2%	7.2%
58	50%	77.4	78.0	78.6	79.2	79.9		Poll	100.0%	51.0%	41.0%	8.0%		Poll	100.0%	46.0%	43.0%	11.0%
59				Margin
60	54%	11.4	12.6	13.9	15.1	16.3				Rasmussen						NBC
61	53%	10.9	12.2	13.4	14.6	15.9		LV	State	Biden	Trump	Other			State	Biden	Trump	Other
62	52%	10.5	11.7	12.9	14.2	15.4		Dem	42.1%	90%	6%	4.0%		Dem	42.1%	94.0%	4.0%	2.0%
63	51%	10.0	11.2	12.5	13.7	15.0		Rep	42.3%	5%	92%	3.0%		Rep	42.3%	5.0%	87.0%	8.0%
64	50%	9.5	10.8	12.0	13.3	14.5		Ind	15.6%	46%	47%	7.0%		Ind	15.6%	49.0%	37.0%	14.0%
65				Biden				Calc	100.0%	47.2%	48.8%	4.0%		Calc	100.0%	49.3%	44.3%	6.4%
66	54%	45.5%	45.1%	44.7%	44.3%	43.8%		Poll	100.0%	48.0%	47.0%	5.0%		Poll	100.0%	53.0%	39.0%	8.0%
67	53%	45.7%	45.3%	44.8%	44.4%	44.0%
68	52%	45.8%	45.4%	45.0%	44.6%	44.2%
69	51%	46.0%	45.6%	45.2%	44.7%	44.3%				Fox						CNN
70	50%	46.2%	45.7%	45.3%	44.9%	44.5%			State	Biden	Trump	Other			State	Biden	Trump	Other
71								Dem	42.1%	94%	6%	0.0%		Dem	42.1%	96%	3%	1.0%
72			Party	2020				Rep	42.3%	4%	92%	4.0%		Rep	42.3%	7%	89%	4.0%
73		NEP	ID	Biden	Trump	Other		Ind	15.6%	57%	29%	14.0%		Ind	15.6%	59%	39%	2.0%
74		Dem	37.0%	94%	5%	1%		Calc	100.0%	50.1%	46.0%	3.9%		Calc	100.0%	52.6%	45.0%	2.4%
75		Rep	36.0%	6%	94%	0%		Poll	100.0%	53.0%	43.0%	4.0%		Poll	100.0%	57.0%	41.0%	2.0%
76		Ind	27.0%	54%	41%	5%
77		Recorded	100.0%	51.5%	46.8%	1.7%				WaPo/ABC						YouGov
78			Party	2016					State	Biden	Trump	Other			State	Biden	Trump	Other
79		NEP	ID	Clinton	Trump	Other		Dem	42.1%	96%	4%	0.0%		Dem	42.1%	89%	1%	0.0%
80		Dem	36%	90.4%	7.8%	1.8%		Rep	42.3%	9%	90%	1.0%		Rep	42.3%	2%	92%	1.0%
81		Rep	33%	8%	88%	4.0%		Ind	15.6%	50%	45%	5.0%		Ind	15.6%	32%	37%	4.0%
82		Ind	31%	42%	46%	12.0%		Calc	100.0%	52.0%	46.8%	1.2%		Calc	100.0%	43.3%	45.1%	1.0%
83		Recorded	100.0%	48.2%	46.1%	5.7%		Poll	100.0%	55.0%	43.0%	2.0%		Poll	86.0%	46.0%	38.0%	2.0%
84
85										The Hill						IBD/TIPP
86									State	Biden	Trump	Other		RV	State	Biden	Trump	Other
87								Dem	42.1%	83%	11%	6.0%		Dem	42.1%	93.2%	4.3%	0.0%
88								Rep	42.3%	13%	83%	4.0%		Rep	42.3%	5.1%	90.4%	1.9%
89								Ind	15.6%	40%	38%	22.0%		Ind	15.6%	43.6%	45.6%	4.9%
90								Calc	100.0%	46.7%	45.7%	7.7%		Calc	100.0%	48.2%	47.2%	1.6%																																	Biden	Trump
91								Poll	100.0%	46.0%	42.0%	12.0%		Poll	100.0%	48.8%	45.6%	5.6%																													47.30%	52.10%	m19	nat	45.00%	53.80%
92																																															45.00%	53.80%	k96	state	45.00%	53.80%
93											2020 STATE MODEL																																				-0.17	-0.12		Adjustment	-2.00%	2.00%
94																							Trump																										2017		2020 adjusted
95				Adjusted (158.3m recorded)				Estim.turnout (adjust Party-ID)				2020 Model Vote share				Model Vote (000)				Electoral vote		Vote/PtyID	Model-																									wtd	42.79%	41.60%	40.79%	43.60%
96		ElecVote	Vote	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Dem	Rep	Ind	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin		Biden	Trump	Trump	Recorded	Adjusted/	Recorded																							avg	42.4%	42.5%	40.4%	44.5%
97		538	147,000	51.31%	46.86%	1.83%	-4.45%	42.05%	42.32%	15.63%	45.00%	53.80%	1.20%	8.80%	66,147	79,086	1,767	12,939	BG*	149	389	110.7%	6.94%	147,000	158,384																136,216,677		65,719,398			62,889,892			Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
98	AK	3	334	42.8%	52.8%	4.4%	10.1%	34.9%	47.4%	17.7%	39.9%	58.9%	1.23%	19.0%	133	197	4	63	AK		3	111%	6.1%	334	360	PA	50.0%	48.8%							Final CNN 2016 exit poll (reported)				Alabama		2,123,372	WTA	729,547	34.36%	–	1,318,255	62.08%	AK	36.9%	45.4%	34.9%	47.4%
99	AL	9	2,156	36.6%	62.0%	1.4%	25.5%	32.8%	53.8%	13.4%	36.5%	62.6%	1.00%	26.1%	786	1,349	22	563	AL		9	115%	0.5%	2,156	2,323	WI	49.4%	48.8%							28 states only				Alaska		318,608	WTA	116,454	36.55%	–	163,387	51.28%	AL	34.8%	51.8%	32.8%	53.8%
100	AR	6	1,131	34.8%	62.4%	2.8%	27.6%	32.3%	50.6%	17.1%	37.5%	61.3%	1.18%	23.9%	424	694	13	270	AR		6	123%	-1.1%	1,131	1,219	GA	49.5%	49.2%					Votes	Share	Democrat	Repub	Ind	Trump	Arizona		2,573,165	WTA	1,161,167	45.13%	–	1,252,401	48.67%	AR	34.3%	48.6%	32.3%	50.6%
101	AZ	11	3,144	49.4%	49.1%	1.6%	-0.3%	39.4%	43.7%	16.9%	43.3%	55.5%	1.24%	12.2%	1,361	1,744	39	383	AZ*		11	112%	6.4%	3,144	3,387	MI	50.6%	47.8%					Avg	110,702	35.29%	32.50%	32.21%	46.73%	Arkansas		1,130,635	WTA	380,494	33.65%	–	684,872	60.57%	AZ	41.4%	41.7%	39.4%	43.7%
102	CA	55	16,243	63.5%	34.3%	2.2%	-29.2%	48.3%	34.0%	17.7%	51.0%	47.6%	1.37%	-3.4%	8,283	7,738	222	-544	CA	55		101%	13.3%	16,243	17,501	VA	54.1%	44.0%					Wtd Avg		37.46%	31.76%	30.78%	45.20%	California	dl	14,181,595	WTA	8,753,788	61.73%	55	4,483,810	31.62%	CA	50.3%	32.0%	48.3%	34.0%
103	CO	9	3,023	55.4%	41.9%	2.7%	-13.5%	40.4%	45.0%	14.6%	43.2%	55.6%	1.13%	12.4%	1,307	1,682	34	375	CO*		9	93%	13.7%	3,023	3,257								AZ	2,573	28%	32%	40%	48.7%	Colorado	dl	2,780,220	WTA	1,338,870	48.16%	9	1,202,484	43.25%	CO	42.4%	43.0%	40.4%	45.0%
104	CT	7	1,693	59.2%	39.2%	1.6%	-20.0%	49.1%	34.8%	16.1%	51.0%	47.7%	1.30%	-3.4%	864	807	22	-57	CT	7		113%	8.5%	1,693	1,824								CA	14,182	47%	23%	30%	31.6%	Connecticut	dl	1,644,920	WTA	897,572	54.57%	7	673,215	40.93%	CT	51.1%	32.8%	49.1%	34.8%
105	DC	3	320	92.1%	5.4%	2.5%	-86.8%	75.4%	15.3%	9.3%	70.2%	28.6%	1.22%	-41.6%	224	91	4	-133	DC	3		35%	23.2%	320	344								CO	2,780	32%	24%	44%	43.3%	Delaware	dl	441,590	WTA	235,603	53.35%	3	185,127	41.92%	DC	77.4%	13.3%	75.4%	15.3%
106	DE	3	468	58.7%	39.8%	1.5%	-19.0%	51.4%	36.1%	12.5%	51.5%	47.3%	1.14%	-4.2%	241	222	5	-20	DE	3		110%	7.5%	468	504								FL	9,420	32%	33%	35%	49.0%	District of Columbia	dl	312,575	WTA	282,830	90.48%	3	12,723	4.07%	DE	53.4%	34.1%	51.4%	36.1%
107	FL	29	10,272	47.9%	51.2%	0.9%	3.4%	40.5%	43.4%	16.1%	43.9%	54.9%	1.21%	11.0%	4,509	5,639	124	1,130	FL*		29	118%	3.7%	10,272	11,067								GA	4,115	34%	36%	30%	50.8%	Florida		9,420,039	WTA	4,504,975	47.82%	–	4,617,886	49.02%	FL	42.5%	41.4%	40.5%	43.4%
108	GA	16	4,641	49.5%	49.2%	1.3%	-0.2%	39.9%	45.1%	15.0%	43.0%	55.9%	1.15%	12.9%	1,994	2,593	53	599	GA*		16	109%	6.6%	4,641	5,000								IA	1,566	31%	34%	35%	51.1%	Georgia		4,114,732	WTA	1,877,963	45.64%	–	2,089,104	50.77%	GA	41.9%	43.1%	39.9%	45.1%
109	HI	4	533	63.7%	34.3%	2.0%	-29.5%	47.8%	33.1%	19.1%	51.1%	47.4%	1.43%	-3.7%	273	253	8	-20	HI	4		104%	13.2%	533	574								IL	5,536	45%	30%	25%	38.8%	Hawaii	dl	437,664	WTA	266,891	60.98%	4	128,847	29.44%	HI	49.8%	31.1%	47.8%	33.1%
110	IA	6	1,569	44.9%	53.1%	2.0%	8.2%	37.5%	47.3%	15.2%	41.1%	57.8%	1.14%	16.8%	644	907	18	263	IA		6	112%	4.7%	1,569	1,691								IN	2,741	34%	39%	27%	56.8%	Idaho		690,255	WTA	189,765	27.49%	–	409,055	59.26%	IA	39.5%	45.3%	37.5%	47.3%
111	ID	4	806	33.1%	63.8%	3.1%	30.8%	27.4%	57.6%	15.0%	32.6%	66.4%	1.02%	33.8%	263	535	8	272	ID		4	111%	2.5%	806	868								KY	1,924	38%	44%	18%	62.5%	Illinois	dl	5,536,424	WTA	3,090,729	55.83%	20	2,146,015	38.76%	ID	29.4%	55.6%	27.4%	57.6%
112	IL	20	5,600	57.5%	40.6%	1.9%	-17.0%	49.5%	35.6%	14.9%	50.9%	47.9%	1.24%	-3.0%	2,850	2,680	69	-170	IL	20		114%	7.3%	5,600	6,034								ME	748	32%	27%	41%	44.9%	Indiana		2,740,958	WTA	1,039,126	37.91%	–	1,557,286	56.82%	IL	51.5%	33.6%	49.5%	35.6%
113	IN	11	2,815	41.0%	57.0%	2.0%	16.1%	35.2%	47.2%	17.6%	40.1%	58.7%	1.23%	18.6%	1,128	1,652	35	524	IN		11	121%	1.7%	2,815	3,033								MI	4,799	40%	31%	29%	47.5%	Iowa		1,566,031	WTA	653,669	41.74%	–	800,983	51.15%	IN	37.2%	45.2%	35.2%	47.2%
114	KS	6	1,274	41.6%	56.2%	2.2%	14.7%	31.9%	52.8%	15.3%	36.4%	62.5%	1.08%	26.0%	464	796	14	332	KS		6	106%	6.3%	1,274	1,372								MN	2,945	37%	35%	28%	44.9%	Kansas		1,184,402	WTA	427,005	36.05%	–	671,018	56.65%	KS	33.9%	50.8%	31.9%	52.8%
115	KY	8	1,983	36.2%	62.1%	1.8%	25.9%	37.9%	51.1%	11.0%	39.7%	59.3%	0.93%	19.6%	788	1,177	18	388	KY		8	122%	-2.8%	1,983	2,137								MO	2,809	34%	39%	27%	56.8%	Kentucky		1,924,149	WTA	628,854	32.68%	–	1,202,971	62.52%	KY	39.9%	49.1%	37.9%	51.1%
116	LA	8	1,994	39.9%	58.5%	1.7%	18.6%	39.1%	47.5%	13.4%	41.7%	57.3%	1.06%	15.6%	831	1,142	21	311	LA		8	123%	-1.2%	1,994	2,148								NC	4,742	35%	31%	34%	49.8%	Louisiana		2,029,032	WTA	780,154	38.45%	–	1,178,638	58.09%	LA	41.1%	45.5%	39.1%	47.5%
117	MA	11	3,370	65.6%	32.1%	2.3%	-33.5%	52.1%	31.2%	16.7%	53.8%	44.9%	1.36%	-8.9%	1,812	1,513	46	-299	MA	11		103%	12.7%	3,370	3,631								NH	742	28%	28%	44%	46.6%	Maine (at-large)		747,927	CD[e]	357,735	47.83%	2	335,593	44.87%	MA	54.1%	29.2%	52.1%	31.2%
118	MD	10	2,819	65.4%	32.2%	2.5%	-33.2%	52.5%	33.3%	14.2%	53.1%	45.7%	1.24%	-7.5%	1,497	1,287	35	-210	MD	10		97%	13.5%	2,819	3,037								NJ	3,907	43%	27%	30%	41.0%	Maryland	dl	2,781,446	WTA	1,677,928	60.33%	10	943,169	33.91%	MD	54.5%	31.3%	52.5%	33.3%
119	ME	4	761	53.1%	44.0%	2.9%	-9.1%	41.6%	41.7%	16.7%	45.0%	53.7%	1.25%	8.7%	343	408	10	66	ME*		4	106%	9.7%	761	819								NM	798	41%	27%	32%	40.0%	Massachusetts		3,325,046	WTA	1,995,196	60.01%	11	1,090,893	32.81%	ME	43.6%	39.7%	41.6%	41.7%
120	MI	16	5,141	50.6%	47.8%	1.5%	-2.8%	41.7%	40.8%	17.5%	45.4%	53.3%	1.29%	7.8%	2,336	2,739	66	403	MI*		16	117%	5.4%	5,141	5,539								NV	1,125	36%	28%	36%	45.5%	Michigan		4,799,284	WTA	2,268,839	47.27%	–	2,279,543	47.50%	MI	43.7%	38.8%	41.7%	40.8%
121	MN	10	3,042	52.4%	45.3%	2.3%	-7.1%	43.1%	42.4%	14.5%	45.4%	53.4%	1.16%	8.0%	1,382	1,625	35	243	MN*		10	107%	8.1%	3,042	3,277								NY	7,456	48%	26%	26%	36.7%	Minnesota		2,944,813	WTA	1,367,716	46.44%	10	1,322,951	44.92%	MN	45.1%	40.4%	43.1%	42.4%
122	MO	10	2,808	41.4%	56.8%	1.8%	15.4%	37.0%	49.3%	13.7%	40.1%	58.9%	1.05%	18.8%	1,125	1,654	30	529	MO		10	115%	2.1%	2,808	3,026								OH	5,496	34%	37%	29%	51.7%	Mississippi		1,209,357	WTA	485,131	40.11%	–	700,714	57.94%	MO	39.0%	47.3%	37.0%	49.3%
123	MS	6	1,219	41.1%	57.6%	1.3%	16.5%	35.7%	50.6%	13.7%	39.0%	60.0%	1.04%	21.0%	475	731	13	256	MS		6	114%	2.4%	1,219	1,314								OR	2,001	33%	23%	44%	39.1%	Missouri		2,808,605	WTA	1,071,068	38.14%	–	1,594,511	56.77%	MS	37.7%	48.6%	35.7%	50.6%
124	MT	3	560	40.5%	56.9%	2.5%	16.4%	32.7%	52.8%	14.5%	36.8%	62.2%	1.05%	25.4%	206	348	6	142	MT		3	108%	5.2%	560	604								PA	5,950	41%	39%	20%	48.6%	Montana		497,147	WTA	177,709	35.75%	–	279,240	56.17%	MT	34.7%	50.8%	32.7%	52.8%
125	NC	15	5,128	48.6%	49.9%	1.5%	1.3%	41.2%	43.7%	15.1%	44.1%	54.7%	1.17%	10.7%	2,261	2,807	60	547	NC*		15	114%	4.8%	5,128	5,525								SC	2,103	27%	46%	27%	54.9%	Nebraska (at-lrg)		844,227	CD	284,494	33.70%	1	495,961	58.75%	NC	43.2%	41.7%	41.2%	43.7%
126	ND	3	336	31.8%	65.1%	3.1%	33.4%	30.1%	55.0%	14.9%	34.8%	64.2%	1.05%	29.4%	117	215	4	99	ND		3	118%	-1.0%	336	362								TX	8,969	29%	38%	33%	52.2%	Nevada	dl	1,125,385	WTA	539,260	47.92%	6	512,058	45.50%	ND	32.1%	53.0%	30.1%	55.0%
127	NE	5	888	39.2%	58.2%	2.6%	19.1%	34.2%	50.6%	15.2%	38.3%	60.6%	1.10%	22.3%	340	538	10	198	NE		5	115%	2.4%	888	956								UT	1,131	20%	45%	35%	45.5%	New Hampshire		741,885	WTA	348,526	46.98%	4	345,790	46.61%	NE	36.2%	48.6%	34.2%	50.6%
128	NH	4	748	52.7%	45.4%	1.9%	-7.4%	38.7%	47.0%	14.3%	41.7%	57.2%	1.10%	15.5%	312	428	8	116	NH*		4	97%	11.8%	748	806								VA	3,983	40%	33%	27%	44.4%	New Jersey		3,906,709	WTA	2,148,278	54.99%	14	1,601,933	41.00%	NH	40.7%	45.0%	38.7%	47.0%
129	NJ	14	4,222	57.3%	41.4%	1.3%	-15.9%	45.8%	38.9%	15.3%	48.0%	50.8%	1.22%	2.8%	2,026	2,145	52	119	NJ		14	106%	9.4%	4,222	4,549								WA	3,184	34%	20%	46%	38.4%	New Mexico	dl	798,318	WTA	385,234	48.26%	5	319,666	40.04%	NJ	47.8%	36.9%	45.8%	38.9%
130	NM	5	858	54.3%	43.5%	2.2%	-10.8%	42.4%	40.9%	16.7%	45.7%	53.0%	1.26%	7.3%	392	455	11	63	NM		5	106%	9.5%	858	924								WI	2,976	35%	35%	30%	47.2%	New York		7,455,767	WTA	4,441,437	59.06%	29	2,738,645	36.41%	NM	44.4%	38.9%	42.4%	40.9%
131	NV	6	1,304	50.1%	47.7%	2.3%	-2.4%	39.1%	44.6%	16.3%	42.8%	56.0%	1.21%	13.2%	558	730	16	172	NV*		6	107%	8.3%	1,304	1,405									-0.02	-0.41	1.00	-0.59	0.79	North Carolina		4,741,665	WTA	2,189,350	46.17%	–	2,362,697	49.83%	NV	41.1%	42.6%	39.1%	44.6%
132	NY	29	7,977	60.9%	37.8%	1.4%	-23.1%	50.9%	33.8%	15.3%	52.2%	46.5%	1.27%	-5.7%	4,165	3,710	102	-455	NY	29		112%	8.8%	7,977	8,595														North Dakota		344,360	WTA	93,758	27.23%	–	216,794	62.96%	NY	52.9%	31.8%	50.9%	33.8%
133	OH	18	5,497	45.2%	53.3%	1.5%	8.0%	38.4%	47.5%	14.1%	41.4%	57.5%	1.09%	16.2%	2,274	3,163	60	889	OH*		18	112%	4.3%	5,497	5,922														Ohio		5,496,487	WTA	2,394,164	43.56%	–	2,841,005	51.69%	OH	40.4%	45.5%	38.4%	47.5%
134	OK	7	1,449	32.3%	65.4%	2.3%	33.1%	32.3%	54.0%	13.7%	36.2%	62.8%	1.01%	26.7%	524	910	15	387	OK		7	121%	-2.5%	1,449	1,561														Oklahoma		1,452,992	WTA	420,375	28.93%	–	949,136	65.32%	OK	34.3%	52.0%	32.3%	54.0%
135	OR	7	2,204	56.5%	40.4%	3.2%	-16.1%	46.7%	39.2%	14.1%	48.3%	50.6%	1.17%	2.3%	1,063	1,114	26	51	OR		7	103%	10.2%	2,204	2,374														Oregon		2,001,336	WTA	1,002,106	50.07%	700.00%	782,403	39.09%	OR	48.7%	37.2%	46.7%	39.2%
136	PA	20	6,418	50.0%	48.8%	1.1%	-1.2%	43.2%	44.9%	11.9%	44.5%	54.5%	1.03%	10.0%	2,856	3,496	66	640	PA*		20	109%	5.6%	6,418	6,915														Pennsylvania		6,115,402	WTA	2,926,441	47.85%	–	2,970,733	48.58%	PA	45.2%	42.9%	43.2%	44.9%
137	RI	4	481	59.4%	38.6%	2.0%	-20.8%	48.4%	37.4%	14.2%	49.7%	49.1%	1.19%	-0.6%	239	236	6	-3	RI	4		103%	10.5%	481	518														Rhode Island		414,433	WTA	227,062	53.83%	4	166,454	39.46%	RI	50.4%	35.4%	48.4%	37.4%
138	SC	9	2,333	43.4%	55.1%	1.5%	11.7%	34.1%	50.2%	15.7%	38.4%	60.4%	1.13%	22.0%	896	1,410	26	514	SC		9	110%	5.3%	2,333	2,513														South Carolina		2,103,027	WTA	855,373	40.67%	–	1,155,389	54.94%	SC	36.1%	48.2%	34.1%	50.2%
139	SD	3	392	35.6%	61.8%	2.6%	26.2%	28.0%	54.7%	17.3%	34.0%	64.9%	1.15%	30.9%	133	254	4	121	SD		3	113%	3.1%	392	423														South Dakota		370,093	WTA	117,458	31.74%	–	227,721	61.53%	SD	30.0%	52.7%	28.0%	54.7%
140	TN	11	2,834	37.5%	60.7%	1.9%	23.2%	34.8%	50.3%	14.9%	38.7%	60.2%	1.09%	21.5%	1,097	1,707	31	610	TN		11	121%	-0.4%	2,834	3,054														Tennessee		2,508,027	WTA	870,695	34.72%	–	1,522,925	60.72%	TN	36.8%	48.3%	34.8%	50.3%
141	TX	38	10,502	46.5%	52.1%	1.5%	5.6%	36.6%	44.5%	18.9%	41.7%	56.9%	1.31%	15.2%	4,384	5,980	138	1,595	TX		38	117%	4.9%	10,502	11,315														Texas		8,969,226	WTA	3,877,868	43.24%	–	4,685,047	52.23%	TX	38.6%	42.5%	36.6%	44.5%
142	UT	6	1,381	37.6%	58.1%	4.2%	20.5%	26.6%	58.2%	15.2%	32.0%	67.0%	1.03%	35.0%	442	925	14	483	UT		6	100%	8.8%	1,381	1,488														Utah	dl	1,131,317	WTA	310,674	27.46%	–	515,211	45.54%	UT	28.6%	56.2%	26.6%	58.2%
143	VA	13	4,140	54.1%	44.0%	1.9%	-10.1%	40.6%	44.2%	15.2%	43.6%	55.2%	1.17%	11.6%	1,806	2,286	48	479	VA		13	100%	11.2%	4,140	4,461														Vermont	dl	320,467	WTA	178,573	55.72%	3	95,369	29.76%	VA	42.6%	42.2%	40.6%	44.2%
144	VT	3	341	66.1%	30.7%	3.2%	-35.4%	53.2%	31.7%	15.1%	54.0%	44.7%	1.29%	-9.4%	184	152	4	-32	VT	3		97%	14.0%	341	367														Virginia		3,982,752	WTA	1,981,473	49.75%	13	1,769,443	44.43%	VT	55.2%	29.7%	53.2%	31.7%
145	WA	12	3,794	58.0%	38.8%	3.3%	-19.2%	45.2%	39.1%	15.7%	47.6%	51.1%	1.24%	3.5%	1,807	1,940	47	132	WA		12	99%	12.4%	3,794	4,088														Washington	dl	3,183,761	WTA	1,742,718	54.30%	12	1,221,747	38.07%	WA	47.2%	37.1%	45.2%	39.1%
146	WI	10	3,061	49.4%	48.8%	1.7%	-0.6%	41.0%	42.8%	16.2%	44.3%	54.4%	1.22%	10.1%	1,357	1,666	37	309	WI*		10	114%	5.6%	3,061	3,298														West Virginia		713,051	WTA	188,794	26.48%	–	489,371	68.63%	WI	43.0%	40.8%	41.0%	42.8%
147	WV	5	738	29.7%	68.6%	1.7%	38.9%	37.6%	50.6%	11.8%	39.8%	59.2%	0.97%	19.4%	294	437	7	143	WV		5	136%	-9.4%	738	795														Wisconsin		2,976,150	WTA	1,382,536	46.45%	–	1,405,284	47.22%	WV	39.6%	48.6%	37.6%	50.6%
148	WY	3	257	26.6%	69.9%	3.5%	43.4%	25.0%	62.8%	12.2%	29.5%	69.6%	0.86%	40.1%	76	179	2	103	WY		3	111%	-0.3%	257	277														Wyoming		255,849	WTA	55,973	21.63%	–	174,419	67.40%	WY	27.0%	60.8%	25.0%	62.8%
149
150	Correlation	-0.18	-0.19	-1.00	1.00	0.05	1.00	-0.93	0.95	-0.02	-0.95	0.95	-0.71	0.95	-0.25	-0.13	-0.22	0.45		0.20	-0.29	0.78	-0.05																55,973	21.63%	–	174,419	67.40%
151		ElecVote	2020 vote	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Dem	Rep	Ind	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin	Biden	Trump	Other	Margin		Biden	Trump	Trump	Mod-Rec
152
153
154	Electoral Votes			Party ID
155			Dem	Rep	Ind			Stdev	0.39	MoE	2.2%
156			42.1%	42.3%	15.6%			Win Probability		100%
157								Expected Trump EV		393.6									Battleground
158								Electoral Vote		Trump									Pop Vote	Biden	Trump	52.4%	Biden	Trump	51.4%	Biden	Trump	50.4%	Biden	Trump	49.4%	Biden	Trump	48.4%	Biden	Trump	47.4%
159			Biden	Trump	Other	Margin		Biden	Trump	WinProb									EVote	156	382		182	356		182	356		213	325		247	291		324	214
160		538	45.00%	53.80%	1.20%	8.80%		149	389	100%
161	AK	3	39.9%	58.9%	1.2%	19.0%			3	100%	AK								AK		3			3			3			3			3			3
162	AL	9	36.5%	62.6%	1.0%	26.1%			9	100%	AL								AL		9			9			9			9			9			9
163	AR	6	37.5%	61.3%	1.2%	23.9%			6	100%	AR								AR		6			6			6			6			6			6
164	AZ	11	43.3%	55.5%	1.2%	12.2%			11	100%	AZ								AZ		11			11			11			11			11		11
165	CA	55	51.0%	47.6%	1.4%	-3.4%		55		7%	CA								CA	55			55			55			55			55			55
166	CO	9	43.2%	55.6%	1.1%	12.4%			9	100%	CO								CO		9			9			9			9			9		9
167	CT	7	51.0%	47.7%	1.3%	-3.4%		7		6%	CT								CT	7			7			7			7			7			7
168	DC	3	70.2%	28.6%	1.2%	-41.6%		3		0%	DC								DC	3			3			3			3			3			3
169	DE	3	51.5%	47.3%	1.1%	-4.2%		3		3%	DE								DE	3			3			3			3			3			3
170	FL	29	43.9%	54.9%	1.2%	11.0%			29	100%	FL								FL		29			29			29			29			29		29
171	GA	16	43.0%	55.9%	1.1%	12.9%			16	100%	GA								GA		16			16			16			16			16			16
172	HI	4	51.1%	47.4%	1.4%	-3.7%		4		5%	HI								HI	4			4			4			4			4			4
173	IA	6	41.1%	57.8%	1.1%	16.8%			6	100%	IA								IA		6			6			6			6			6			6
174	ID	4	32.6%	66.4%	1.0%	33.8%			4	100%	ID								ID		4			4			4			4			4			4
175	IL	20	50.9%	47.9%	1.2%	-3.0%		20		9%	IL								IL	20			20			20			20			20			20
176	IN	11	40.1%	58.7%	1.2%	18.6%			11	100%	IN								IN		11			11			11			11			11			11
177	KS	6	36.4%	62.5%	1.1%	26.0%			6	100%	KS								KS		6			6			6			6			6			6
178	KY	8	39.7%	59.3%	0.9%	19.6%			8	100%	KY								KY		8			8			8			8			8			8
179	LA	8	41.7%	57.3%	1.1%	15.6%			8	100%	LA								LA		8			8			8			8			8			8
180	MA	11	53.8%	44.9%	1.4%	-8.9%		11		0%	MA								MA	11			11			11			11			11			11
181	MD	10	53.1%	45.7%	1.2%	-7.5%		10		0%	MD								MD	10			10			10			10			10			10
182	ME	4	45.0%	53.7%	1.3%	8.7%			4	100%	ME								ME		4			4			4			4		4			4
183	MI	16	45.4%	53.3%	1.3%	7.8%			16	100%	MI								MI		16			16		16	16		16			16			16
184	MN	10	45.4%	53.4%	1.2%	8.0%			10	100%	MN								MN		10			10		10	10		10			10			10
185	MO	10	40.1%	58.9%	1.1%	18.8%			10	100%	MO								MO		10			10			10			10			10			10
186	MS	6	39.0%	60.0%	1.0%	21.0%			6	100%	MS								MS		6			6			6			6			6			6
187	MT	3	36.8%	62.2%	1.1%	25.4%			3	100%	MT								MT		3			3			3			3			3			3
188	NC	15	44.1%	54.7%	1.2%	10.7%			15	100%	NC								NC		15			15			15			15			15		15
189	ND	3	34.8%	64.2%	1.0%	29.4%			3	100%	ND								ND		3			3			3			3			3			3
190	NE	5	38.3%	60.6%	1.1%	22.3%			5	100%	NE								NE		5			5			5			5			5			5
191	NH	4	41.7%	57.2%	1.1%	15.5%			4	100%	NH								NH		4			4			4			4			4			4
192	NJ	14	48.0%	50.8%	1.2%	2.8%			14	90%	NJ								NJ		14		14			14			14			14			14
193	NM	5	45.7%	53.0%	1.3%	7.3%			5	100%	NM								NM		5			5		5	5		5			5			5
194	NV	6	42.8%	56.0%	1.2%	13.2%			6	100%	NV								NV		6			6			6			6			6			6
195	NY	29	52.2%	46.5%	1.3%	-5.7%		29		1%	NY								NY	29			29			29			29			29			29
196	OH	18	41.4%	57.5%	1.1%	16.2%			18	100%	OH								OH		18			18			18			18			18			18
197	OK	7	36.2%	62.8%	1.0%	26.7%			7	100%	OK								OK		7			7			7			7			7			7
198	OR	7	48.3%	50.6%	1.2%	2.3%			7	85%	OR								OR	7			7			7			7			7			7
199	PA	20	44.5%	54.5%	1.0%	10.0%			20	100%	PA								PA		20			20			20			20		20			20
200	RI	4	49.7%	49.1%	1.2%	-0.6%		4		39%	RI								RI	4			4			4			4			4			4
201	SC	9	38.4%	60.4%	1.1%	22.0%			9	100%	SC								SC		9			9			9			9			9			9
202	SD	3	34.0%	64.9%	1.1%	30.9%			3	100%	SD								SD		3			3			3			3			3			3
203	TN	11	38.7%	60.2%	1.1%	21.5%			11	100%	TN								TN		11			11			11			11			11			11
204	TX	38	41.7%	56.9%	1.3%	15.2%			38	100%	TX								TX		38			38			38			38			38			38
205	UT	6	32.0%	67.0%	1.0%	35.0%			6	100%	UT								UT		6			6			6			6			6			6
206	VA	13	43.6%	55.2%	1.2%	11.6%			13	100%	VA								VA		13			13			13			13			13		13
207	VT	3	54.0%	44.7%	1.3%	-9.4%		3		0%	VT								VT	3			3			3			3			3			3
208	WA	12	47.6%	51.1%	1.2%	3.5%			12	94%	WA								WA		12		12			12			12			12			12
209	WI	10	44.3%	54.4%	1.2%	10.1%			10	100%	WI								WI		10			10			10			10		10			10
210	WV	5	39.8%	59.2%	1.0%	19.4%			5	100%	WV								WV		5			5			5			5			5			5
211	WY	3	29.5%	69.6%	0.9%	40.1%			3	100%	WY								WY		3			3			3			3			3			3
212
213
214			Trump margin	BGround
215	1	AK	36
216	2	AL	387
217	3	AR	181
218	4	AZ*	114	b
219	5	CA	-1562
220	6	CO*	129	b
221	7	CT	-181
222	8	DC	-154
223	9	DE	-53
224	10	FL*	306	b
225	11	GA*	212	b
226	12	HI	-50
227	13	IA	140	b
228	14	ID	179
229	15	IL	-593
230	16	IN	296
231	17	KS	215
232	18	KY	226
233	19	LA	158
234	20	MA	-549
235	21	MD	-420
236	22	ME*	7	b
237	23	MI*	5	b
238	24	MN*	7	b
239	25	MO	310
240	26	MS	159
241	27	MT	87
242	28	NC*	138	b
243	29	ND	74
244	30	NE	122
245	31	NH*	57	b
246	32	NJ	-191
247	33	NM	-3	b
248	34	NV*	61	b
249	35	NY	-996
250	36	OH*	460	b
251	37	OK	274
252	38	OR	-108
253	39	PA*	135	b
254	40	RI	-34
255	41	SC	299
256	42	SD	85
257	43	TN	343
258	44	TX	666
259	45	UT	306
260	46	VA	152	b
261	47	VT	-55
262	48	WA	-135
263	49	WI*	70	b
264	50	WV	83
265	51	WY	82
266
267		Total	1480


1
2	https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=8
3
4	2012 unadjusted exit polls not released; just 31 states polled
5
6	2012 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote match)
7	2008	Recorded	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other	Turnout/alive
8	Obama	52.93%	70.24	69.50	66.02	62.72	58.11	45%	90%	7%	3%	88%
9	McCain	45.65%	60.19	59.95	56.95	54.1	52.94	41%	7%	93%	0%	93%
10	Other	1.42%	1.88	1.87	1.77	1.68	1.29	1%	51%	45%	4%	73%
11	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	16.79	13%	55%	42%	3%	-
12												Margin
13	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	124.75	118.51	129.13	100%	51.03%	47.19%	1.78%	3.84%
14								Vote	65.9	60.94	2.3	4.96
15
16
17
18	2012 True Vote Model
19	2008	Exit Poll (True Vote)	Cast	Recorded	Alive	Return	Turnout	Mix	Obama	Romney	Other	Turnout/alive
20	Obama	58.13%	76.92	69.50	73.07	69.42	69.42	53.76%	90%	7%	3%	95%
21	McCain	40.26%	53.27	59.95	50.6	48.07	48.07	37.23%	6%	93%	0%	95%
22	Other	1.61%	2.12	1.87	2.02	1.92	1.92	1.48%	51%	45%	4%	95%
23	Did Not Vote (new)	-	-	-	-	-	9.72	7.53%	51%	42%	3%	-
24												Margin	Discrepancy	Red Shift
25	TOTAL	100%	132.31	131.31	125.69	119.41	129.13	100%	55.21%	42.22%	1.90%	13.67%	9.83%	4.92%
26								Vote	72.17	54.51	2.45	17.65	12.69
27
28
29
30			True Vote Model (2-party)			LV-based Poll Projection (2-party)			Recorded share
31			Obama	Romney	EV	Obama	Romney	EV	Obama	Romney	EV	Red-shift	SimWinProb
32			56.48	43.52	371	51.57	48.43	332	51.03	47.19	332	4.53	99.7%
33								2-party	51.95	48.05
34		AK	49.4	50.6		39.2	60.8		40.8	54.8		6.40	0%	Alaska	3
35		AL	50.8	49.2	9	41.0	59.0		38.4	60.5		11.85	0%	Alabama	9
36		AR	46.8	53.2		36.5	63.5		36.9	60.6		8.65	0%	Arkansas	6
37		AZ	50.2	49.8	11	46.5	53.5		44.4	53.5		4.75	1%	Arizona	11
38		CA	64.3	35.7	55	57.5	42.5	55	60.2	37.1	55	2.75	100%	California	55
39
40		CO	51.2	48.8	9	51.0	49.0	9	51.5	46.1	9	-1.50	74%	Colorado	9
41		CT	69.8	30.2	7	56.5	43.5	7	58.1	40.7	7	11.10	100%	Connecticut	7
42		DC	85.2	14.8	3	90.0	10.0	3	90.9	7.3	3	-6.60	100%	D.C.	3
43		DE	64.8	35.2	3	62.5	37.5	3	58.6	40.0	3	5.50	100%	Delaware	3
44		FL	51.3	48.7	29	50.5	49.5	29	49.9	49.0	29	0.85	63%	Florida	29
45
46		GA	49.7	50.3		46.0	54.0		45.5	53.3		3.60	0%	Georgia	16
47		HI	67.0	33.0	4	63.5	36.5	4	70.5	27.8	4	-4.35	100%	Hawaii	4
48		IA	55.4	44.6	6	52.0	48.0	6	52.0	46.2	6	2.50	90%	Iowa	6
49		ID	42.7	57.3		37.3	62.7		32.4	64.1		8.55	0%	Idaho	4
50		IL	63.2	36.8	20	58.0	42.0	20	57.6	40.7	20	4.75	100%	Illinois	20
51
52		IN	54.0	46.0	11	45.5	54.5		43.9	54.1		9.10	0%	Indiana	11
53		KS	45.9	54.1		42.5	57.5		38.0	59.7		6.75	0%	Kansas	6
54		KY	46.7	53.3		43.0	57.0		37.8	60.5		8.05	0%	Kentucky	8
55		LA	45.7	54.3		40.7	59.3		40.6	57.8		4.30	0%	Louisiana	8
56		MA	64.7	35.3	11	57.5	42.5	11	60.7	37.5	11	3.10	100%	Massachusetts	11
57
58		MD	64.3	35.7	10	59.5	40.5	10	62.0	35.9	10	1.25	100%	Maryland	10
59		ME	60.1	39.9	4	55.0	45.0	4	56.3	41.0	4	2.45	100%	Maine	4
60		MI	60.1	39.9	16	53.0	47.0	16	54.1	44.6	16	5.35	98%	Michigan	16
61		MN	59.8	40.2	10	54.0	46.0	10	52.7	45.0	10	5.95	100%	Minnesota	10
62		MO	55.6	44.4	10	46.0	54.0		44.4	53.8		10.30	0%	Missouri	10
63
64		MS	47.6	52.4		43.4	56.6		43.8	55.3		3.35	0%	Mississippi	6
65		MT	53.1	46.9	3	45.0	55.0		41.7	55.4		9.95	0%	Montana	3
66		NC	52.0	48.0	15	50.0	50.0		48.4	50.4		3.00	50%	North Carolina	15
67		ND	40.1	59.9		43.0	57.0		38.7	58.3		-0.10	0%	North Dakota	3
68		NE	48.8	51.2		43.5	56.5		38.0	59.8		9.70	0%	Nebraska	5
69
70		NH	59.2	40.8	4	51.0	49.0	4	52.0	46.4	4	6.40	74%	New Hampshire	4
71		NJ	61.0	39.0	14	56.0	44.0	14	58.2	40.5	14	2.15	100%	New Jersey	14
72		NM	56.9	43.1	5	54.5	45.5	5	53.0	42.8	5	1.80	100%	New Mexico	5
73		NV	54.9	45.1	6	52.0	48.0	6	52.4	45.7	6	1.55	90%	Nevada	6
74		NY	67.5	32.5	29	64.5	35.5	29	63.3	35.2	29	3.45	100%	New York	29
75
76		OH	54.8	45.2	18	53.0	47.0	18	50.7	47.7	18	3.30	98%	Ohio	18
77		OK	40.8	59.2		37.5	62.5		33.2	66.8		7.60	0%	Oklahoma	7
78		OR	57.2	42.8	7	53.0	47.0	7	54.2	42.1	7	1.15	98%	Oregon	7
79		PA	60.8	39.2	20	53.0	47.0	20	52.0	46.6	20	8.10	98%	Pennsylvania	20
80		RI	65.0	35.0	4	60.5	39.5	4	62.7	35.2	4	1.25	100%	Rhode Island	4
81
82		SC	47.0	53.0		47.0	53.0		44.1	54.6		2.25	2%	South Carolina	9
83		SD	48.7	51.3		44.5	55.5		39.9	57.9		7.70	0%	South Dakota	3
84		TN	47.6	52.4		46.5	53.5		39.1	59.5		7.80	1%	Tennessee	11
85		TX	46.1	53.9		42.0	58.0		41.4	57.2		4.00	0%	Texas	38
86		UT	34.9	65.1		29.0	71.0		24.7	72.6		8.85	0%	Utah	6
87
88		VA	59.7	40.3		52.0	48.0	13	51.2	47.3	13	7.75	90%	Virginia	13
89		VT	67.9	32.1		68.5	31.5	3	66.6	31.0	3	0.10	100%	Vermont	3
90		WA	57.2	42.8	13	55.5	44.5	12	55.9	41.1	12	-0.20	100%	Washington	12
91		WI	60.5	39.5	3	51.5	48.5	10	52.8	45.9	10	7.05	84%	Wisconsin	10
92		WV	45.3	54.7	12	43.0	57.0		35.5	62.3		8.70	0%	West Virginia	5
93		WY	35.9	64.1	10	33.9	66.1		27.8	68.6		6.30	0%	Wyoming	3
94
95
96	2012 Pre-election True Vote Model Forecast
97		National			2012		2-party projection assumes returning voters based on 2008 exit poll
98	2008	Exit Poll	Share	Alive	Turnout	Cast	Vote Mix	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney
99	Obama	76,196	58.00%	72,386	95%	68,767	54.22%	90%	10%	61,890	6,877
100	McCain	52,995	40.34%	50,346	95%	47,828	37.71%	7%	93%	3,348	44,480
101	Other	2,185	1.66%	2,076	95%	1,972	1.55%	50%	50%	986	986
102	DNV	-	-	-	-	7,173	6.52%	58.98%	41.02%	4,874	3,390
103	Total	131,372	100%	124808	95%	125,741	100%	56.06%	43.94%	71,099	55,733
104
105							Projected	51.55%	48.45%
106							Recorded	51.03%	47.15%	64,164	59,288
107							2-party	51.97%	48.03%
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134		National			2012		2-party projection assumes returning voters based on 2008 exit poll
135	2008	Exit Poll	Share	Alive	Turnout	Cast	Vote Mix	Obama	Romney	Obama	Romney
136	Obama	76196	58%	72386	95%	68767	54.22%	90%	10%	61890	6877
137	McCain	52995	40.34%	50346	95%	47828	37.71%	7%	93%	3348	44480
138	Other	2185	1.66%	2076	95%	1972	1.55%	50%	50%	986	986
139	DNV	-	-	-	-	7173	6.52%	58.98%	41.02%	4874	3390
140	Total	131372	100%	124808	95%	125741	100%	56.06%	43.94%	71099	55733
141							Projected	51.55%	48.45%
142							Recorded	51.03%	47.15%	64164	59288
143							2-party	51.97%	48.03%


1
2
3						2008 State & National Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Votes, Late and Recorded Votes
4
5
6		Leip 2008	Recorded	Share		Measure		Method	Sample	Obama	McCain	MoE	2-party
7		Obama	69,499	52.87%		State Aggr	1	Unweighted	82,388	56.59	41.63	0.50%	57.62
8		McCain	59,950	45.60%		State Aggr	2	Weighted	82,388	58.06	40.29	0.50%	59.03
9		Independent	739	0.56%
10		Libertarian	523	0.40%		Unadj NEP	3	Sample	17,836	60.96	37.23	1.00%	62.08
11		Other	751	0.57%		Voted2004	4	Sample	4,178	58.00	40.38	2.00%	58.96
12		Total	131,463	100.00%		State Aggr	5	TVM-4	NatTVM	57.96	40.77		58.71
13						State Aggr	6	TVM-3	NatTVM	56.40	42.02		57.31
14						True Vote	7	TVM-4	StateTVM	57.29	40.44		58.62
15						Exit Poll	8	TVM-3	StateTVM	56.27	41.58		57.51
16						Votes Cast	9	TVM-2	StateTVM	55.20	43.30		56.04
17						Recorded	10	TVM-1	StateTVM	54.50	44.00		55.33
18
19						Late Votes	11	Recorded	10.2 mil	59.20	37.50		61.22
20
21								Average		57.31	40.83		58.40
22							Recorded	Final NEP		52.87	45.6		53.69
23
24			1A	Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll					2A	Final 2004 National Exit Poll					3A	Final 2004 National Exit Poll
25				(Biased sample? Kerry True Vote 2% higher)						(forced to match recorded vote)						(forced to match recorded vote)
26				Total	Kerry	Bush	Other		Forced	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other		GENDER	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
27			Resp.	13,660	7,064	6,414	182		Respondents	13,660	6,594	6,930	136		Female	54%	51%	48%	1%
28			Share	100%	51.71%	46.95%	1.33%		Share	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%		Male	46%	45%	54%	1%
29															Total	100%	48.24%	50.76%	1.00%
30
31			4A	Unadjusted 2004 NEP (13660 resp)					5A	Final 2004 NEP (13660 resp)					6A	2004 True Vote Model
32			(Biased sample? Gore had 50.8% in state exit polls)						(impossible returning Bush 2000 voters)							(Returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
33	2000	2000	Implied	Voter	12:22am Vote Shares			2000	Implied	Voter	Adjusted Final NEP shares				2000	Voter	12:22am Vote Shares
34	Voted	Implied	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Implied	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
35	DNV	-	23.12	18.38%	57%	41%	2%	-	20.79	17%	54%	44%	2%		DNV	17%	57%	41%	2%
36	Gore	47.02%	48.25	38.37%	91%	8%	1%	44.58%	45.25	37%	90%	10%	0%		Gore	42%	91%	8%	1%
37	Bush	48.40%	49.67	39.50%	10%	90%	0%	51.81%	52.59	43%	9%	91%	0%		Bush	38%	10%	90%	0%
38	Other	4.58%	4.70	3.74%	64%	17%	19%	3.61%	3.67	3%	64%	14%	22%		Other	3%	64%	17%	19%
39
40		100.00%	125.74	100.00%	51.74%	46.80%	1.46%	100%	122.30	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%			100%	53.63%	45.04%	1.33%
41			Total	125.74	65.06	58.84	1.84		Total	122.30	59.03	62.04	1.22		Total	125.74	67.43	56.63	1.67
42
43
44			3	Unadjusted 2008 NEP (17836)				7A		Final 2008 NEP (17836 resp)					13	Unadjusted 2008 NEP- How Voted in 2004
45										(forced to match recorded vote)					(see Table # 4)
46			Total	Resp.	Obama	McCain	Other		GENDER	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Voted	Kerry	Bush	Other	DNV	Total
47			Votes	17,836	10,873	6,641	322		Male	47%	49%	49%	2%		2004	1,815	1,614	188	561	4,178
48			Share	100%	61.0%	37.2%	1.8%		Female	53%	56%	43%	1%		Share	43.44%	38.63%	4.50%	13.43%
49
50				Party-ID	Dem	Rep	Other		Share	100%	52.87%	45.59%	1.54%		2-pty	52.93%	47.07%
51				17,774	8,096	4,851	4,827		Votes(mil)	131.463	69.50	59.94	2.02		MoE	2.11%
52					45.5%	27.3%	27.2%
53
54
55
56			4	Unadjusted 2008 NEP						12	Final 2008 NEP						2008 True Vote Model
57				(see 3617 subsample in table 13)							(forced to match recorded vote)					7	(Returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
58	Voted	2004	2008	Exact match to TVM & unadj state					2004	2008						2004	2008
59	2004	Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other		Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
60	DNV	-	17.66	13.43%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	-	17.09	13%	71%	27%	2%	DNV	-	15.32	11.65%	71%	27%	2%
61	Kerry	50.18%	57.11	43.44%	89%	9%	2%	Kerry	42.53%	48.64	37%	89%	9%	2%	Kerry	53.74%	62.42	47.48%	89%	9%	2%
62	Bush	44.62%	50.78	38.63%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	52.87%	60.47	46%	17%	82%	1%	Bush	45.26%	52.57	39.99%	17%	82%	1%
63	Other	5.20%	5.92	4.50%	72%	26%	2%	Other	4.60%	5.26	4%	72%	26%	2%	Other	1.00%	1.16	0.88%	72%	26%	2%
64
65		Total	131.46	100%	58.00%	40.35%	1.65%		Total	131.46	100%	52.87%	45.60%	1.54%		Total	131.46	100%	57.96%	40.44%	1.60%
66		Votes		131.463	76.25	53.04	2.17		Votes		131.463	69.50	59.95	2.02		Votes	Votes	131.463	76.20	53.16	2.10
67
68	In 2004, 125.7 million votes were cast. Approximately 6 million died, so 119.7 million were still living in 2008. Approximately 113.8 million returned to vote in 2008 (95%).
69
70
71						1	Exit Poll Sample			2	Exit Poll Vote share (%)
72						Unadjusted/unweighted aggregate					Unadjusted/weighted aggregate
73		30%	Cluster																												36		46
74					Unwtd	AvgMoE	Obama	McCain	Other		Obama	McCain	Other	EV	TV-3	TV-4	Recorded	EV
75				Votes	Sample	2.97%	56.59%	41.74%	1.67%		58.06%	40.29%	1.66%	419	56.27%	57.29%	52.87%	365						Theory	Dem					FlIp
76				131,145	82,388	2.92%	46,625	34,390	1,373		76,136	52,833	2,175	NatTVM>	56.83%	57.96%			Exceed MoE	37	1.96sqrt(Z(1-Z)/E)		4.81	419	Rep	g/(g+h)	abs(v-k)	100*f	ab-ac	7		avg	4.87
77						3.31%					59.03%	2pty					Recorded						5.27		BG				EV	55		wtd	5.36
78	State	Region	EV	Cast	Sample	MoEC	Obama	McCain	Other	EPShare	Obama	McCain	Other	EV	Obama	Obama	Obama	EV	State	>MoEC	MoE	Recorded	Obama Chg	WinProb	D,R.B	BO 2pty	ABS(Shift)	MoEC	Diff	EV Flip	EP Margin	Rec Margin	(EP-Rec)/2
79	AK	S	3	304	1,194	3.69%	586	567	41	AK	49.1	47.5	3.4	3	52.1	48.3	37.9		Alaska	1	2.84%	37.9	11.18	67%	R	50.82%	11.55	3.69	7.86	3	1.59	-21.50	11.55	50.82
80	AL	S	9	2,126	1,073	3.88%	558	504	11	AL	52.0	47.0	1.0	9	48.1	52.2	38.7		Alabama	1	2.99%	38.7	13.30	90%	R	52.54%	13.32	3.88	9.43	9	5.03	-21.60	13.32	52.54
81	AR	S	6	1,092	1,000	4.02%	460	506	34	AR	46.0	50.6	3.4		49.9	53.6	38.9		Arkansas	1	3.10%	38.9	7.10	12%	R	47.62%	7.65	4.02	3.63		-4.60	-19.90	7.65	47.62
82	AZ	W	10	2,497	1,233	3.63%	634	591	8	AZ	51.4	47.9	0.6	10	52.8	46.6	44.9		Arizona	1	2.79%	44.9	6.52	83%	R	51.76%	5.99	3.63	2.37	10	3.49	-8.50	5.99	51.76
83	CA	W	55	13,828	2,309	2.46%	1,547	706	56	CA	67.0	30.6	2.4	55	60.6	63.3	61.0	55	California	1	1.89%	61	6.00	100%	D	68.66%	6.21	2.46	3.75		36.42	24.00	6.21	68.66
84	CO	W	9	2,308	1,254	3.59%	651	578	25	CO	51.9	46.1	2.0	9	55.0	56.2	53.7	9	Colorado	0	2.76%	53.7	-1.79	95%	B	52.97%	1.59	3.59	-2.00		5.82	9.00	-1.59	52.97
85	CT	E	7	1,610	864	3.73%	634	207	23	CT	73.4	24.0	2.7	7	66.4	67.0	60.6	7	Connecticut	1	2.87%	60.6	12.78	100%	D	75.39%	13.51	3.73	9.78		49.42	22.40	13.51	75.39
86	DC	E	3	306	502	2.80%	462	32	8	DC	92.0	6.4	1.6	3	88.6	87.9	92.5	3	Dist. of Col.	0	2.15%	92.5	-0.47	100%	D	93.52%	0.12	2.80	-2.68		85.66	85.90	-0.12	93.52
87	DE	E	3	408	771	4.25%	529	238	4	DE	68.6	30.9	0.5	3	65.6	63.0	61.9	3	Delaware	1	3.27%	61.9	6.71	100%	D	68.97%	6.37	4.25	2.13		37.74	25.00	6.37	68.97
88	FL	S	27	7,951	3,350	2.20%	1,745	1,544	61	FL	52.1	46.1	1.8	27	55.7	56.2	50.9	27	Florida	0	1.69%	50.9	1.19	100%	B	53.06%	1.60	2.20	-0.60		6.00	2.80	1.60	53.06
89	GA	S	15	4,183	1,941	2.89%	992	945	4	GA	51.1	48.7	0.2	15	51.4	54.4	46.9		Georgia	1	2.22%	46.9	4.21	79%	R	51.21%	3.81	2.89	0.92	15	2.42	-5.20	3.81	51.21
90	HI	W	4	457	878	3.87%	618	242	18	HI	70.4	27.6	2.1	4	64.3	65.8	71.8	4	Hawaii	0	2.97%	71.8	-1.41	100%	D	71.86%	1.24	3.87	-2.63		42.82	45.30	-1.24	71.86
91	IA	M	7	1,501	3,125	2.25%	1,778	1,287	60	IA	56.9	41.2	1.9	7	54.5	56.5	53.9	7	Iowa	1	1.73%	53.9	3.00	100%	B	58.01%	3.11	2.25	0.86		15.71	9.50	3.11	58.01
92	ID	W	4	644	765	4.56%	320	428	17	ID	41.8	55.9	2.2		40.1	43.1	36.0		Idaho	1	3.51%	36	5.83	0%	R	42.78%	5.59	4.56	1.03		-14.12	-25.30	5.59	42.78
93	IL	M	21	5,436	1,389	3.21%	921	450	18	IL	66.3	32.4	1.3	21	58.6	60.7	61.9	21	Illinois	1	2.47%	61.9	4.41	100%	D	67.18%	4.40	3.21	1.19		33.91	25.10	4.40	67.18
94	IN	M	11	2,758	2,422	2.57%	1,348	1,046	28	IN	55.7	43.2	1.2	11	48.9	53.4	49.9	11	Indiana	1	1.98%	49.9	5.76	100%	R	56.31%	5.73	2.57	3.17		12.47	1.00	5.73	56.31
95	KS	M	6	1,219	800	4.49%	369	421	10	KS	46.1	52.6	1.3		43.7	49.2	41.6		Kansas	1	3.46%	41.6	4.53	8%	R	46.71%	4.20	4.49	-0.29		-6.50	-14.90	4.20	46.71
96	KY	S	8	1,952	1,457	3.33%	682	752	23	KY	46.8	51.6	1.6		49.2	50.9	41.1		Kentucky	1	2.56%	41.1	5.71	8%	R	47.56%	5.70	3.33	2.36		-4.80	-16.20	5.70	47.56
97	LA	S	9	2,149	1,848	2.96%	849	979	20	LA	45.9	53.0	1.1		50.3	53.8	39.9		Louisiana	1	2.27%	39.9	6.04	1%	R	46.44%	5.78	2.96	2.83		-7.03	-18.60	5.78	46.44
98	MA	E	12	3,044	767	4.24%	514	227	26	MA	67.0	29.6	3.4	12	66.0	66.8	61.8	12	Massachusetts	1	3.26%	61.8	5.21	100%	D	69.37%	5.81	4.24	1.57		37.42	25.80	5.81	69.37
99	MD	E	10	2,611	997	3.74%	670	306	21	MD	67.2	30.7	2.1	10	61.0	64.6	61.9	10	Maryland	1	2.88%	61.9	5.30	100%	D	68.65%	5.55	3.74	1.81		36.51	25.40	5.55	68.65
100	ME	E	4	716	1,560	3.10%	968	553	39	ME	62.1	35.4	2.5	4	59.1	59.5	57.7	4	Maine	1	2.39%	57.7	4.35	100%	D	63.64%	4.65	3.10	1.55		26.60	17.30	4.65	63.64
101	MI	M	17	4,865	3,096	2.20%	1,926	1,099	71	MI	62.2	35.5	2.3	17	58.3	58.8	57.4	17	Michigan	1	1.69%	57.4	4.81	100%	B	63.67%	5.11	2.20	2.90		26.71	16.50	5.11	63.67
102	MN	M	10	2,759	2,381	2.52%	1,473	854	54	MN	61.9	35.9	2.3	10	58.9	58.1	54.1	10	Minnesota	1	1.94%	54.1	7.76	100%	B	63.30%	7.90	2.52	5.38		26.00	10.20	7.90	63.30
103	MO	M	11	2,846	2,739	2.40%	1,575	1,134	30	MO	57.5	41.4	1.1	11	55.2	56.2	49.3		Missouri	1	1.85%	49.3	8.20	100%	B	58.14%	8.10	2.40	5.70	11	16.10	-0.10	8.10	58.14
104	MS	S	6	1,439	1,053	3.92%	510	538	5	MS	48.4	51.1	0.5		51.9	53.1	43.0		Mississippi	1	3.02%	43	5.43	25%	R	48.66%	5.27	3.92	1.35		-2.66	-13.20	5.27	48.66
105	MT	W	3	473	1,317	3.49%	716	579	22	MT	54.4	44.0	1.7	3	48.6	49.0	47.2		Montana	1	2.69%	47.2	7.17	100%	R	55.29%	6.35	3.49	2.86	3	10.40	-2.30	6.35	55.29
106	NC	S	15	4,370	2,814	2.39%	1,506	1,290	18	NC	53.5	45.8	0.6	15	54.1	54.4	49.7	15	North Carolina	1	1.84%	49.7	3.82	100%	B	53.86%	3.69	2.39	1.29		7.68	0.30	3.69	53.86
107	ND	M	3	321	926	4.10%	360	546	20	ND	38.9	59.0	2.2		41.0	47.1	44.5		North Dakota	1	3.15%	44.5	-5.62	0%	R	39.74%	5.74	4.10	1.65		-20.09	-8.60	-5.74	39.74
108	NE	M	5	844	1,119	3.81%	551	549	19	NE	49.2	49.1	1.7	4	46.1	46.9	41.6	1	Nebraska	1	2.93%	41.6	7.64	52%	R	50.09%	7.54	3.81	3.73	4	0.18	-14.90	7.54	50.09
109	NH	E	4	708	2,211	2.62%	1,363	820	28	NH	61.6	37.1	1.3	4	60.5	57.9	54.1	4	New Hamp.	1	2.02%	54.1	7.55	100%	B	62.44%	7.48	2.62	4.86		24.56	9.60	7.48	62.44
110	NJ	E	15	3,637	1,582	3.06%	1,010	555	17	NJ	63.8	35.1	1.1	15	61.9	61.5	57.2	15	New Jersey	1	2.36%	57.2	6.64	100%	D	64.54%	6.63	3.06	3.57		28.76	15.50	6.63	64.54
111	NM	W	5	846	2,744	2.38%	1,614	1,085	45	NM	58.8	39.5	1.6	5	58.2	58.0	56.9	5	New Mexico	0	1.83%	56.9	1.92	100%	B	59.80%	2.09	2.38	-0.30		19.28	15.10	2.09	59.80
112	NV	W	5	1,027	2,769	2.39%	1,560	1,157	52	NV	56.3	41.8	1.9	5	58.3	58.6	55.1	5	Nevada	0	1.84%	55.1	1.24	100%	B	57.42%	1.03	2.39	-1.37		14.55	12.50	1.03	57.42
113	NY	E	31	7,559	1,595	2.85%	1,141	436	18	NY	71.5	27.3	1.1	31	64.2	65.4	62.8	31	New York	1	2.19%	62.8	8.74	100%	D	72.35%	8.75	2.85	5.90		44.20	26.70	8.75	72.35
114	OH	M	20	5,483	3,211	2.22%	1,807	1,350	54	OH	56.3	42.0	1.7	20	57.1	55.5	51.4	20	Ohio	1	1.71%	51.4	4.88	100%	B	57.24%	4.87	2.22	2.64		14.23	4.50	4.87	57.24
115	OK	M	7	1,507	869	4.25%	353	515	1	OK	40.6	59.3	0.1		44.1	48.4	34.4		Oklahoma	1	3.27%	34.4	6.22	0%	R	40.67%	6.33	4.25	2.08		-18.64	-31.30	6.33	40.67
116	OR	W	7	1,818	1,249	3.53%	730	482	37	OR	58.4	38.6	3.0	7	55.8	52.3	56.7	7	Oregon	0	2.71%	56.7	1.75	100%	B	60.23%	1.78	3.53	-1.75		19.86	16.30	1.78	60.23
117	PA	E	21	5,747	2,752	2.33%	1,755	972	25	PA	63.8	35.3	0.9	21	59.3	58.0	54.5	21	Pennsylvania	1	1.79%	54.5	9.27	100%	B	64.36%	9.08	2.33	6.75		28.45	10.30	9.08	64.36
118	RI	E	4	507	833	4.06%	562	245	26	RI	67.5	29.4	3.1	4	66.8	68.6	63.1	4	Rhode Island	1	3.12%	63.1	4.37	100%	D	69.64%	5.08	4.06	1.02		38.06	27.90	5.08	69.64
119	SC	S	8	2,100	1,163	3.73%	553	598	12	SC	47.5	51.4	1.0		53.3	53.6	44.9		South Carolina	0	2.87%	44.9	2.65	15%	R	48.05%	2.57	3.73	-1.17		-3.87	-9.00	2.57	48.05
120	SD	M	3	390	977	4.08%	476	476	25	SD	48.7	48.7	2.6		45.3	49.3	44.7		South Dakota	0	3.14%	44.7	4.02	50%	R	50.00%	4.20	4.08	0.12		0.00	-8.40	4.20	50.00
121	TN	S	11	2,516	1,720	3.07%	820	865	35	TN	47.7	50.3	2.0		49.7	53.9	41.8		Tenneesee	1	2.36%	41.8	5.87	20%	R	48.66%	6.24	3.07	3.17		-2.62	-15.10	6.24	48.66
122	TX	S	34	8,435	2,101	2.77%	971	1,099	31	TX	46.2	52.3	1.5		48.7	49.9	43.6		Texas	0	2.13%	43.6	2.62	1%	R	46.91%	2.85	2.77	0.08		-6.09	-11.80	2.85	46.91
123	UT	W	5	939	555	5.09%	175	354	26	UT	31.5	63.8	4.7		40.9	42.3	34.3		Utah	0	3.91%	34.3	-2.77	0%	R	33.08%	2.08	5.09	-3.01		-32.25	-28.10	-2.08	33.08
124	VA	S	13	3,650	2,466	2.48%	1,541	904	21	VA	62.5	36.7	0.9	13	59.6	58.0	52.6	13	Virginia	1	1.91%	52.6	9.89	100%	B	63.03%	9.77	2.48	7.29		25.83	6.30	9.77	63.03
125	VT	E	3	308	862	3.85%	616	228	18	VT	71.5	26.5	2.1	3	69.4	62.8	67.5	3	Vermont	1	2.96%	67.5	3.96	100%	D	72.99%	4.01	3.85	0.15		45.01	37.00	4.01	72.99
126	WA	W	11	3,073	1,241	3.54%	719	474	48	WA	57.9	38.2	3.9	11	60.5	60.1	57.4	11	Washington	0	2.72%	57.4	0.54	100%	B	60.27%	1.32	3.54	-2.22		19.74	17.10	1.32	60.27
127	WI	M	10	2,887	2,545	2.43%	1,611	909	25	WI	63.3	35.7	1.0	10	56.0	56.5	56.2	10	Wisconsin	1	1.87%	56.2	7.10	100%	B	63.93%	6.84	2.43	4.42		27.58	13.90	6.84	63.93
128	WV	E	5	741	1,039	3.94%	469	552	18	WV	45.1	53.1	1.7		47.9	53.7	42.6		West Virginia	0	3.03%	42.6	2.54	2%	R	45.94%	2.56	3.94	-1.38		-7.99	-13.10	2.56	45.94
129	WY	W	3	250	960	3.91%	327	616	17	WY	34.1	64.2	1.8		39.6	41.3	32.5		Wyoming	0	3.01%	32.5	1.56	0%	R	34.68%	1.05	3.91	-2.87		-30.10	-32.20	1.05	34.68
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141		12	Recorded					5	TVM State Method 4				6	TVM State Method 3 (WPD)					Unadj Exit poll
142			Obama	McCain	Other	Margin	EV	Obama	McCain	Other	Margin	EV	Obama	McCain	Margin	EV	McCain	WPD	Obama	McCain	Margin	Diff
143	Obama	Share	52.87%	45.60%	1.53%	7.26%	365	57.47%	40.94%	1.66%	16.6	508	56.68%	41.81%	14.87%	432	99 EV	9.78	58.06	40.29	17.77	10.50
144	WinProb	Votes	69.5	59.95	2.01	9.55		75,364	53,692	2,172	21,863		74,338	54,835	19,502		8 states	9.62	76,136	52,833	23,303			BO recd
145	(TVM-4)											492	sumprod											2-party
146	39%	AK	37.9	59.4	2.7	-21.5		48.3	49.1	2.7	-0.9		49.2	48.1	1.1	3		23.1	49.08	47.49	1.59	23.09	Alaska	38.95%	38.95169579	AK
147	92%	AL	38.7	60.3	1.0	-21.6		52.2	46.8	1.0	5.4	9	49.3	49.8	-0.6			26.6	52.00	46.97	5.03	26.63	Alabama	39.09%	39.09090909	AL
148	99%	AR	38.9	58.7	2.4	-19.9		53.6	44.0	2.4	9.6	6	50.6	47.0	3.6	6	6	29.5	46.00	50.60	-4.60	15.30	Arkansas	39.86%	39.85655738	AR
149	100%	AZ	44.9	53.4	1.7	-8.5		55.4	42.9	1.7	12.3	10	51.7	46.6	5.1	10	10	12	51.42	47.93	3.49	11.99	Arizona	45.68%	45.67650051	AZ
150	100%	CA	61.0	36.9	2.1	24.0	55	63.3	34.6	2.1	28.7	55	64.1	33.8	30.4	55		12.4	67.00	30.58	36.42	12.42	California	62.31%	62.30847804	CA
151	100%	CO	53.7	44.7	1.6	9.0	9	56.2	42.2	1.6	14.0	9	55.4	43.0	12.4	9		-3.2	51.91	46.09	5.82	-3.18	Colorado	54.57%	54.57317073	CO
152	100%	CT	60.6	38.2	1.2	22.4	7	67.0	31.8	1.2	35.2	7	66.4	32.4	34.0	7		27	73.38	23.96	49.42	27.02	Connecticut	61.34%	61.33603239	CT
153	100%	DC	92.5	6.5	1.0	85.9	3	87.9	11.1	1.0	76.8	3	88.7	10.3	78.3	3		-0.2	92.03	6.37	85.66	-0.24	Dist. of Col.	93.43%	93.43434343	DC
154	100%	DE	61.9	36.9	1.2	25.0	3	63.0	35.9	1.1	27.1	3	64.5	34.4	30.1	3		12.7	68.61	30.87	37.74	12.74	Delaware	62.65%	62.65182186	DE
155	100%	FL	50.9	48.1	1.0	2.8	27	56.2	42.2	1.6	14.0	27	55.6	43.4	12.3	27		3.2	52.09	46.09	6.00	3.20	Florida	51.41%	51.41414141	FL
156	100%	GA	46.9	52.1	1.0	-5.2		54.4	44.6	1.0	9.8	15	51.5	47.5	3.9	15	15	7.6	51.11	48.69	2.42	7.62	Georgia	47.37%	47.37373737	GA
157	100%	HI	71.8	26.6	1.6	45.3	4	65.8	32.6	1.6	33.2	4	62.7	35.7	27.0	4		-2.5	70.39	27.56	42.82	-2.48	Hawaii	72.97%	72.96747967	HI
158	100%	IA	53.9	44.4	1.7	9.5	7	56.5	41.8	1.7	14.7	7	55.0	43.3	11.8	7		6.2	56.90	41.18	15.71	6.21	Iowa	54.83%	54.83214649	IA
159	0%	ID	36.0	61.3	2.7	-25.3		43.1	54.2	1.2	-11.1		42.6	54.7	-12.1			11.2	41.83	55.95	-14.12	11.18	Idaho	37.00%	36.99897225	ID
160	100%	IL	61.9	36.8	1.3	25.1	21	60.7	38.1	1.2	22.6	21	59.0	39.7	19.3	21		8.8	66.31	32.40	33.91	8.81	Illinois	62.72%	62.71529889	IL
161	100%	IN	49.9	48.9	1.2	1.0	11	53.4	45.4	1.2	8.0	11	49.4	49.4	-0.1			11.5	55.66	43.19	12.47	11.47	Indiana	50.51%	50.50607287	IN
162	53%	KS	41.6	56.5	1.9	-14.9		49.2	48.9	1.9	0.3	6	45.7	52.4	-6.7			8.4	46.13	52.63	-6.50	8.40	Kansas	42.41%	42.40570846	KS
163	89%	KY	41.1	57.4	1.5	-16.2		50.9	47.7	1.4	3.2	8	47.1	51.4	-4.2			11.4	46.81	51.61	-4.80	11.40	Kentucky	41.73%	41.72588832	KY
164	100%	LA	39.9	58.6	1.5	-18.6		53.8	44.7	1.5	9.1	9	49.7	48.8	0.9	9	9	11.6	45.94	52.98	-7.03	11.57	Louisiana	40.51%	40.50761421	LA
165	100%	MA	61.8	36.0	2.2	25.8	12	66.8	31.0	2.2	35.8	12	66.3	31.6	34.7	12		11.6	67.01	29.60	37.42	11.62	Massachusetts	63.19%	63.19018405	MA
166	100%	MD	61.9	36.5	1.6	25.4	10	64.6	33.8	1.6	30.8	10	63.8	34.6	29.2	10		11.1	67.20	30.69	36.51	11.11	Maryland	62.91%	62.90650407	MD
167	100%	ME	57.7	40.4	1.9	17.3	4	59.5	38.6	1.9	20.9	4	59.0	39.1	19.9	4		9.3	62.05	35.45	26.60	9.30	Maine	58.82%	58.81753313	ME
168	100%	MI	57.4	40.9	1.7	16.5	17	58.8	39.5	1.7	19.3	17	58.5	39.8	18.6	17		10.2	62.21	35.50	26.71	10.21	Michigan	58.39%	58.39267548	MI
169	100%	MN	54.1	43.8	2.1	10.2	10	58.1	39.8	2.1	18.3	10	58.5	39.4	19.0	10		15.8	61.86	35.87	26.00	15.80	Minnesota	55.26%	55.26046987	MN
170	100%	MO	49.3	49.4	1.3	-0.1		56.2	42.4	1.4	13.8	11	54.2	44.5	9.7	11	11	16.2	57.50	41.40	16.10	16.20	Missouri	49.95%	49.94934144	MO
171	99%	MS	43.0	56.2	0.8	-13.2		53.1	46.1	0.8	7.0	6	54.0	45.2	8.7	6	6	10.5	48.43	51.09	-2.66	10.54	Mississippi	43.35%	43.34677419	MS
172	70%	MT	47.2	49.4	3.4	-2.3		49.0	47.6	3.4	1.4	3	46.4	50.2	-3.8			12.7	54.37	43.96	10.40	12.70	Montana	48.86%	48.86128364	MT
173	100%	NC	49.7	49.4	0.9	0.3	15	54.4	44.7	1.0	9.6	15	55.8	43.3	12.5	15		7.4	53.52	45.84	7.68	7.38	North Carolina	50.15%	50.15136226	NC
174	14%	ND	44.5	53.1	2.4	-8.6		47.1	50.5	2.4	-3.4		43.1	54.4	-11.4			-11.5	38.88	58.96	-20.09	-11.49	North Dakota	45.59%	45.5942623	ND
175	7%	NE	41.6	56.5	1.9	-14.9	1	46.9	51.2	11.8	5.6		46.6	51.6	-5.0			15.1	49.24	49.06	0.18	15.08	Nebraska	42.41%	42.40570846	NE
176	100%	NH	54.1	44.5	1.4	9.6	4	57.9	40.8	1.3	17.1	4	60.7	38.0	22.8	4		15	61.65	37.09	24.56	14.96	New Hamp.	54.87%	54.86815416	NH
177	100%	NJ	57.2	41.6	1.2	15.5	15	61.5	37.3	1.2	24.2	15	60.1	38.7	21.4	15		13.3	63.84	35.08	28.76	13.26	New Jersey	57.89%	57.89473684	NJ
178	100%	NM	56.9	41.8	1.3	15.1	5	58.0	40.7	1.3	17.3	5	57.3	41.4	15.8	5		4.2	58.82	39.54	19.28	4.18	New Mexico	57.65%	57.64944276	NM
179	100%	NV	55.1	42.7	2.2	12.5	5	58.6	39.2	2.2	19.4	5	58.8	39.0	19.7	5		2.1	56.34	41.78	14.55	2.05	Nevada	56.34%	56.3394683	NV
180	100%	NY	62.8	36.1	1.1	26.7	31	65.4	33.5	1.1	31.9	31	65.7	33.2	32.5	31		17.5	71.54	27.34	44.20	17.50	New York	63.50%	63.49848332	NY
181	100%	OH	51.4	46.8	1.8	4.5	20	55.5	42.7	1.8	12.8	20	57.1	41.1	16.1	20		9.7	56.28	42.04	14.23	9.73	Ohio	52.34%	52.34215886	OH
182	17%	OK	34.4	65.6	0.0	-31.3		48.4	51.6	0.0	-3.2		41.9	58.2	-16.3			12.7	40.62	59.26	-18.64	12.66	Oklahoma	34.40%	34.4	OK
183	100%	OR	56.7	40.4	2.9	16.3	7	52.3	39.9	7.8	12.4	7	55.8	41.3	14.5	7		3.6	58.45	38.59	19.86	3.56	Oregon	58.39%	58.39340886	OR
184	100%	PA	54.5	44.2	1.3	10.3	21	58.0	40.6	1.4	17.4	21	58.4	40.3	18.1	21		18.2	63.77	35.32	28.45	18.15	Pennsylvania	55.22%	55.21783181	PA
185	100%	RI	63.1	35.2	1.7	27.9	4	68.6	29.8	1.6	38.8	4	65.9	32.5	33.4	4		10.2	67.47	29.41	38.06	10.16	Rhode Island	64.19%	64.19125127	RI
186	100%	SC	44.9	53.9	1.2	-9.0		53.7	45.1	1.3	8.5	8	51.8	47.0	4.9	8	8	5.1	47.55	51.42	-3.87	5.13	South Carolina	45.45%	45.44534413	SC
187	59%	SD	44.7	53.2	2.1	-8.4		49.3	48.6	2.1	0.7	3	45.5	52.4	-7.0			8.4	48.72	48.72	0.00	8.40	South Dakota	45.66%	45.65883555	SD
188	100%	TN	41.8	56.9	1.3	-15.1		53.9	44.9	1.2	9.0	11	50.0	48.7	1.3	11		12.5	47.67	50.29	-2.62	12.48	Tenneesee	42.35%	42.35055724	TN
189	63%	TX	43.6	55.4	1.0	-11.8		49.9	49.2	0.9	0.7	34	48.9	50.2	-1.3		34	5.7	46.22	52.31	-6.09	5.71	Texas	44.04%	44.04040404	TX
190	0%	UT	34.3	62.3	3.4	-28.1		42.3	54.1	3.6	-11.8		38.6	58.0	-19.4			-4.2	31.53	63.78	-32.25	-4.15	Utah	35.51%	35.50724638	UT
191	100%	VA	52.6	46.3	1.1	6.3	13	58.0	41.0	1.0	17.0	3	58.2	40.8	17.4	3		19.5	62.49	36.66	25.83	19.53	Virginia	53.19%	53.18503539	VA
192	100%	VT	67.5	30.5	2.0	37.0	3	62.9	35.1	2.1	27.7	13	67.3	30.6	36.7	13		8	71.46	26.45	45.01	8.01	Vermont	68.88%	68.87755102	VT
193	100%	WA	57.4	40.3	2.3	17.1	11	60.1	37.7	2.2	22.4	11	60.7	37.1	23.6	11		2.6	57.94	38.20	19.74	2.64	Washington	58.75%	58.75127943	WA
194	100%	WI	56.2	42.3	1.5	13.9	10	56.6	42.0	1.5	14.5	10	55.9	42.6	13.3	10		13.7	63.30	35.72	27.58	13.68	Wisconsin	57.06%	57.05583756	WI
195	100%	WV	42.6	55.7	1.7	-13.1		53.7	44.5	1.8	9.2	5	46.5	51.8	-5.3			5.1	45.14	53.13	-7.99	5.11	West Virginia	43.34%	43.33672431	WV
196	0%	WY	32.5	64.8	2.7	-32.2		41.3	56.0	2.7	-14.7		41.6	55.8	-14.2			2.1	34.06	64.17	-30.10	2.10	Wyoming	33.40%	33.40184995	WY
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210		Unadjusted National Exit Poll						Final National Exit Poll						Final 2008 National Exit Poll
211	Party ID	Total	Dem	Repub	Ind			Dem	Repub	Ind		Gender	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
212		17,774	8,096	4,851	4,827			6,932	5,688	5,154		Male	47	49%	48%	3%
213			45.55%	27.29%	27.16%			39%	32%	29%		Female	53	56%	43%	1%
214
215	Voted	Total	Obama	McCain	Other			Obama	McCain	Other		Total	100%	52.71	45.35	1.94
216		17,836	10,873	6,641	322			9,430	8,137	269
217			60.96%	37.23%	1.81%			52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
218
219
220	Sex	Total	Male	Female				Male	Female
221		17,937	7,706	10,231				8,430	9,507
222			42.96%	57.04%				47%	53%
223
224	Bush Approval	Total	Approve	Dissaprove				Approve	Dissaprove
225		4,282	985	3,297				1,156	3,040
226			23.00%	77.00%				27%	71%
227
228	Pop. Size	Total	City	Suburb	Rural			City	Suburb	Rural
229		18,018	5,443	9,010	3,565			5,405	8,829	3,784
230			30.21%	50.01%	19.79%			30%	49%	21%
231
232
233
234			Unadjusted			Recorded				Obama
235		State	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other		Discrepancy	Unadjusted	Recorded			old TVM 3
236		AK	49.08	47.49	3.43	37.9	59.4	2.7	AK	11.18	49.1	37.9			49.25
237		AL	52.00	46.97	1.03	38.7	60.3	1.0	AL	13.30	52.0	38.7			49.23
238		AR	46.00	50.60	3.40	38.9	58.7	2.4	AR	7.10	46.0	38.9			51.72
239		AZ	51.42	47.93	0.65	44.9	53.4	1.7	AZ	6.52	51.4	44.9			50.6
240		CA	67.00	30.58	2.43	61.0	36.9	2.1	CA	6.00	67.0	61.0			64.12
241		CO	51.91	46.09	1.99	53.7	44.7	1.6	CO	-1.79	51.9	53.7			55.39
242		CT	73.38	23.96	2.66	60.6	38.2	1.2	CT	12.78	73.4	60.6			66.39
243		DC	92.03	6.37	1.59	92.5	6.5	1.0	DC	-0.47	92.0	92.5			64.5
244		DE	68.61	30.87	0.52	61.9	36.9	1.2	DE	6.71	68.6	61.9			88.66
245		FL	52.09	46.09	1.82	50.9	48.1	1.0	FL	1.19	52.1	50.9			55.64
246		GA	51.11	48.69	0.21	46.9	52.1	1.0	GA	4.21	51.1	46.9			51.47
247		HI	70.39	27.56	2.05	71.8	26.6	1.6	HI	-1.41	70.4	71.8			62.69
248		IA	56.90	41.18	1.92	53.9	44.4	1.7	IA	3.00	56.9	53.9			42.59
249		ID	41.83	55.95	2.22	36.0	61.3	2.7	ID	5.83	41.8	36.0			59.01
250		IL	66.31	32.40	1.30	61.9	36.8	1.3	IL	4.41	66.3	61.9			49.36
251		IN	55.66	43.19	1.16	49.9	48.9	1.2	IN	5.76	55.7	49.9			55.04
252		KS	46.13	52.63	1.25	41.6	56.5	1.9	KS	4.53	46.1	41.6			45.7
253		KY	46.81	51.61	1.58	41.1	57.4	1.5	KY	5.71	46.8	41.1			47.14
254		LA	45.94	52.98	1.08	39.9	58.6	1.5	LA	6.04	45.9	39.9			49.72
255		MA	67.01	29.60	3.39	61.8	36.0	2.2	MA	5.21	67.0	61.8			59
256		MD	67.20	30.69	2.11	61.9	36.5	1.6	MD	5.30	67.2	61.9			63.8
257		ME	62.05	35.45	2.50	57.7	40.4	1.9	ME	4.35	62.1	57.7			66.25
258		MI	62.21	35.50	2.29	57.4	40.9	1.7	MI	4.81	62.2	57.4			58.45
259		MN	61.86	35.87	2.27	54.1	43.8	2.1	MN	7.76	61.9	54.1			58.46
260		MO	57.50	41.40	1.10	49.3	49.4	1.3	MO	8.20	57.5	49.3			53.95
261		MS	48.43	51.09	0.47	43.0	56.2	0.8	MS	5.43	48.4	43.0			54.17
262		MT	54.37	43.96	1.67	47.2	49.4	3.4	MT	7.17	54.4	47.2			46.38
263		NC	53.52	45.84	0.64	49.7	49.4	0.9	NC	3.82	53.5	49.7			46.56
264		ND	38.88	58.96	2.16	44.5	53.1	2.4	ND	-5.62	38.9	44.5			58.76
265		NE	49.24	49.06	1.70	41.6	56.5	1.9	NE	7.64	49.2	41.6			60.7
266		NH	61.65	37.09	1.27	54.1	44.5	1.4	NH	7.55	61.6	54.1			60.08
267		NJ	63.84	35.08	1.07	57.2	41.6	1.2	NJ	6.64	63.8	57.2			57.26
268		NM	58.82	39.54	1.64	56.9	41.8	1.3	NM	1.92	58.8	56.9			65.71
269		NV	56.34	41.78	1.88	55.1	42.7	2.2	NV	1.24	56.3	55.1			55.8
270		NY	71.54	27.34	1.13	62.8	36.1	1.1	NY	8.74	71.5	62.8			43.09
271		OH	56.28	42.04	1.68	51.4	46.8	1.8	OH	4.88	56.3	51.4			57.14
272		OK	40.62	59.26	0.12	34.4	65.6	0.0	OK	6.22	40.6	34.4			41.85
273		OR	58.45	38.59	2.96	56.7	40.4	2.9	OR	1.75	58.4	56.7			55.82
274		PA	63.77	35.32	0.91	54.5	44.2	1.3	PA	9.27	63.8	54.5			58.36
275		RI	67.47	29.41	3.12	63.1	35.2	1.7	RI	4.37	67.5	63.1			65.89
276		SC	47.55	51.42	1.03	44.9	53.9	1.2	SC	2.65	47.5	44.9			51.82
277		SD	48.72	48.72	2.56	44.7	53.2	2.1	SD	4.02	48.7	44.7			45.48
278		TN	47.67	50.29	2.03	41.8	56.9	1.3	TN	5.87	47.7	41.8			50.03
279		TX	46.22	52.31	1.48	43.6	55.4	1.0	TX	2.62	46.2	43.6			48.86
280		UT	31.53	63.78	4.68	34.3	62.3	3.4	UT	-2.77	31.5	34.3			38.62
281		VA	62.49	36.66	0.85	52.6	46.3	1.1	VA	9.89	62.5	52.6			67.32
282		VT	71.46	26.45	2.09	67.5	30.5	2.0	VT	3.96	71.5	67.5			58.16
283		WA	57.94	38.20	3.87	57.4	40.3	2.3	WA	0.54	57.9	57.4			60.67
284		WI	63.30	35.72	0.98	56.2	42.3	1.5	WI	7.10	63.3	56.2			46.45
285		WV	45.14	53.13	1.73	42.6	55.7	1.7	WV	2.54	45.1	42.6			55.92
286		WY	34.06	64.17	1.77	32.5	64.8	2.7	WY	1.56	34.1	32.5			41.55
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1
2													2004
3			98.15%	True Vote Model							Unadjusted National Exit Poll								Final National Exit Poll																	2004 exit poll timeline
4			(Plausible 2000 returning voter mix)							(implausible 2000 returning voters; Gore won by 4-6m)							(Impossible Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)																			http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
5		2000	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			2000	Voted	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		2000	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Alive	Turnout												http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
6		DNV	22,381	17.8%	57%	41%	2%			DNV	23,116	18.38%	57%	41%	2%		DNV	20,790	17%	54%	44%	2%	-	-												http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
7		Gore	52,055	41.4%	91%	8%	1%			Gore	48,248	38.37%	91%	8%	1%		Gore	45,249	37%	90%	10%	0%	48,454	93%
8		Bush	47,403	37.7%	10%	90%	0%			Bush	49,670	39.50%	10%	90%	0%		Bush	52,586	43%	9%	91%	0%	47,933	110%
9		Other	3,898	3.1%	64%	17%	19%			Other	4,703	3.74%	64%	17%	19%		Other	3,669	3%	64%	14%	22%	3,798	97%
10
11		Total	125,737	100%	53.6%	45.1%	1.4%			Total	125,737	100%	51.8%	46.8%	1.5%		Total	122,294	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%	100,185	94%
12					67,362	56,666	1,709					125,737	65,070	58,829	1,838					59,031	62,040	1,223
13																										Gender	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
14	MoE exceeded			National Exit Poll (unadjusted)							How Voted in 2000 (used above)						Kerry 2-pty Vote Win Prob			Sample	MoE					Male	46%	49%	50%	1%
15	in 23 states			Resp.	Kerry	Bush	Other				Sample	DNV	Gore	Bush	Other		State EP	51.77%	100%	76,192	0.46%					Female	54%	54%	45%	1%
16				13,660	7,064	6,414	182				3,182	585	1,221	1,257	119		Nat EP	52.41%	100%	13,660	1.09%							51.70%	47.30%	1.00%
17				share	51.71%	47.0%	1.3%					18.38%	38.37%	39.50%	3.74%				Expected	336	EV											2-party:	p =colG /(colG+colH)
18				2pty	52.41%	47.59%																			97 EV Flip to Bush							MoE=	1.96sqrt(p(1-p)/n)
19	Votes in thousands						UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL				WTD UNADJUSTED EXIT POLL					Snapshot	EDISON-MITOFSKY WPE/IMS			RECORDED VOTE				Margin Diff			WPE	Comp	Net			NDMoE	3.49%	4.53%	MoEC				42
20		Cast	Recorded	Sample	MoEC		Kerry	Bush	Nader	Other	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Other	Margin	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	Unadj	WPE	Diff	-Recd	Rate	Unctd					Unadj		Win	Red Shift		RedShift		Response	EV Flip
21		126,528	122,293	76,192	3.14%	Sample	38,033	37,071	553	535	62,474	58,203	648	969	4,271	349	65,605	59,651	5,954	59,019	62,044	-3,025	252	7,296	8,979	1,683	6,586	54.50	4,235			Region	MoE	2-prty	Theor EV	Prob	>MoEC	MoEC	Deviation	B,D,R	Bush	97
22		30%	cluster	0.36%	3.09%	Unwtd	49.92	48.65	0.73	0.70	51.09	47.59	0.53	0.79	3.49		51.85	47.14	4.71	48.26	50.73	-2.47		5.97	7.18	1.21	3.59	52.49		kerry					336		23	3.14	3.06	REcorrel	0.27	8
23	1		122,293		3.43%	2pty	50.64%	49.36%			51.77%	48.23%					52.38%	47.62%		48.75%	51.25%									2-pty rec								3.09	2.98	EPcorrel	0.30
24
25	AK	293	313	1,177	3.70	W	526	611	23	17	44.7	51.9	2.0	1.4	-7.2		40.2	56.4	-16.2	35.5	61.1	-25.6		18.4%	9.4%	-9%	4.7	53.2	-20	0.37	Alaska	W	2.85	46.26	3	2.39%	1	3.70	9.19	R	53.2
26	AL	2,851	1,883	736	4.60	S	292	435	7	2	39.7	59.1	1.0	0.3	-19.4		41.8	57.5	-15.7	36.8	62.5	-25.7		6.3%	10%	3.7%	5.0	58.3	968	0.37	Alabama	S	3.54	40.17	9	0.00%		4.60	3.14	R	58.3
27	AR	1,140	1,055	1,457	3.32	S	647	798	10	2	44.4	54.8	0.7	0.1	-10.4		45.2	53.7	-8.5	44.5	54.3	-9.8		-0.6%	1.3%	1.9%	0.7	60.2	85	0.45	Arkansas	S	2.55	44.78	6	0.10%		3.32	-0.28	R	60.2
28	AZ	2,239	2,013	1,907	2.91	W	882	1,007	0	18	46.3	52.8	0.0	0.9	-6.6		44.5	54.7	-10.2	44.4	54.9	-10.5		3.9%	0.3%	-3.6%	0.1	57.3	226	0.45	Arizona	W	2.24	46.69	10	1.30%		2.91	1.97	R	57.3
29	CA	12,807	12,420	2,391	2.59	W	1,288	1,056	0	47	53.9	44.2	0.0	2.0	9.7	55	60.1	38.6	21.5	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	11.60	11.6%	11.8%	5.8	50.5	387	0.55	California	W	1.99	54.95	55	99.99%		2.59	-0.10	D	50.5
30	CO	2,097	2,130	2,534	2.53	W	1,248	1,246	19	21	49.3	49.2	0.7	0.8	0.1	9	50.1	48.6	1.5	47.0	51.7	-4.7		4.8%	6.2%	1.4%	3.1	55.5	-33	0.48	Colorado	W	1.95	50.04	9	51.24%		2.53	2.39	B	55.5	9
31	CT	1,524	1,579	872	4.16	E	545	314	11	2	62.5	36.0	1.3	0.2	26.5	7	62.3	35.9	26.4	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	16.1%	16%	-0.1%	8.0	51.0	-55	0.55	Connecticut	E	3.20	63.45	7	100.00%	1	4.16	8.05	D	51
32	DC	270	228	795	2.47	E	721	64	7	3	90.7	8.1	0.9	0.4	82.6	3	90.6	7.9	82.7	89.2	9.3	79.9	3	2.7%	2.8%	0.1%	1.4	53.5	42	0.91	DC	E	1.90	91.85	3	100.00%		2.47	1.37	D	53.5
33	DE	385	375	766	4.43	E	485	276	4	1	63.3	36.0	0.5	0.1	27.3	3	61.3	37.8	23.5	53.3	45.8	7.5	3	19.8%	16%	-3.8%	8.0	57.5	10	0.54	Delaware	E	3.40	63.73	3	100.00%	1	4.43	9.89	D	57.5
34	FL	7,372	7,610	2,862	2.38	S	1,454	1,375	16	17	50.8	48.0	0.6	0.6	2.8	27	51.0	48.2	2.8	47.1	52.1	-5.0		7.8%	7.8%	0%	3.9	49.0	-238	0.47	Florida	S	1.83	51.40	27	87.49%	1	2.38	3.88	B	49	27
35	GA	3,332	3,302	1,618	3.13	S	676	929	0	13	41.8	57.4	0.0	0.8	-15.6		42.0	57.3	-15.3	41.4	58.0	-16.6		1%	1.3%	0.3%	0.6	63.9	30	0.42	Georgia	S	2.41	42.12	15	0.00%		3.13	0.48	R	63.9
36	HI	433	429	622	4.98	W	381	241	0	0	61.3	38.7	0.0	0.0	22.5	4	58.1	41.2	16.9	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	13.8%	8.2%	-5.6%	4.1	53.4	4	0.54	Hawaii	W	3.83	61.25	4	100.00%	1	4.98	6.90	D	53.4
37	IA	1,522	1,507	2,512	2.54	M	1,239	1,231	32	10	49.3	49.0	1.3	0.4	0.3	7	50.7	48.4	2.3	49.2	49.9	-0.7		1%	3%	2%	1.5	52.6	15	0.50	Iowa	M	1.96	50.16	7	54.97%		2.54	0.51	B	52.6	7
38	ID	585	598	801	4.06	W	223	563	0	15	27.8	70.3	0.0	1.9	-42.4		32.3	66.4	-34.1	30.3	68.4	-38.1		-4.3%	4%	8.3%	2.0	63.2	-13	0.31	Idaho	W	3.12	28.37	4	0.00%		4.06	-2.17	R	63.2
39	IL	5,672	5,274	1,434	3.34	M	803	621	0	10	56.0	43.3	0.0	0.7	12.7	21	56.6	42.7	13.9	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	2.4%	3.6%	1.2%	1.8	51.9	398	0.55	Illinois	M	2.57	56.39	21	99.99%		3.34	1.20	D	51.9
40	IN	2,598	2,468	941	4.07	M	372	560	0	9	39.5	59.5	0.0	1.0	-20.0		40.4	58.8	-18.4	39.3	59.9	-20.6		0.6%	2.2%	1.6%	1.1	38.6	130	0.40	Indiana	M	3.13	39.91	11	0.00%		4.07	0.31	R	38.6
41	KS	1,188	1,188	667	4.69	M	228	431	6	2	34.2	64.6	0.9	0.3	-30.4		37.2	61.5	-24.3	36.6	62.0	-25.4		-5%	1.1%	6.1%	0.6	64.5	0	0.37	Kansas	M	3.61	34.60	6	0.00%		4.69	-2.52	R	64.5
42	KY	1,930	1,796	1,050	3.89	M	445	589	11	5	42.4	56.1	1.0	0.5	-13.7		39.9	59.4	-19.5	39.7	59.6	-19.9		6.2%	0.4%	-5.8%	0.2	52.6	134	0.40	Kentucky	M	2.99	43.04	8	0.02%		3.89	3.09	R	52.6
43	LA	2,067	1,943	1,683	3.09	S	744	918	15	6	44.2	54.5	0.9	0.4	-10.3		43.5	55.4	-11.9	42.2	56.7	-14.5		4.2%	2.6%	-1.6%	1.3	47.8	124	0.43	Louisiana	S	2.38	44.77	9	0.04%		3.09	2.08	R	47.8
44	MA	3,085	2,912	889	4.04	E	575	294	0	20	64.7	33.1	0.0	2.2	31.6	12	65.8	32.9	32.9	61.9	36.8	25.1	12	6.5%	7.8%	1.3%	3.9	56.5	173	0.63	Massachusetts	E	3.11	66.17	12	100.00%		4.04	3.25	D	56.5
45	MD	2,413	2,387	1,065	3.88	E	584	466	9	6	54.8	43.8	0.8	0.6	11.1	10	59.6	39.3	20.3	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	-1.9%	7.3%	9.2%	3.7	59.4	26	0.57	Maryland	E	2.98	55.62	10	99.78%		3.88	-0.96	D	59.4
46	ME	736	741	1,991	2.83	E	1,103	843	20	25	55.4	42.3	1.0	1.3	13.1	4	55.6	42.6	13.0	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	4.1%	4%	-0.1%	2.0	61.3	-5	0.55	Maine	E	2.18	56.68	4	100.00%		2.83	2.03	D	61.3
47	MI	4,818	4,839	2,552	2.51	M	1,375	1,142	21	14	53.9	44.7	0.8	0.5	9.1	17	54.4	44.6	9.8	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	5.7%	6.4%	0.7%	3.2	50.2	-21	0.52	Michigan	M	1.93	54.63	17	99.98%	1	2.51	2.87	B	50.2
48	MN	2,887	2,828	2,190	2.70	M	1,232	928	19	11	56.3	42.4	0.9	0.5	13.9	10	55.7	43.0	12.7	51.1	47.6	3.5	10	10.4%	9.2%	-1.2%	4.6	45.3	59	0.52	Minnesota	M	2.07	57.04	10	100.00%	1	2.70	5.19	B	45.3
49	MO	2,815	2,731	2,264	2.68	M	1,140	1,102	0	22	50.4	48.7	0.0	1.0	1.7	11	49.0	50.4	-1.4	46.1	53.3	-7.2		8.9%	5.8%	-3.1%	2.9	47.0	84	0.46	Missouri	M	2.06	50.85	11	73.25%	1	2.68	4.44	B	47	11
50	MS	1,263	1,152	799	4.49	S	364	429	5	1	45.6	53.7	0.6	0.1	-8.1		49.0	50.2	-1.2	39.8	59.4	-19.6		11.5%	18.4%	6.9%	9.2	49.6	111	0.40	Mississippi	S	3.46	45.90	6	3.69%	1	4.49	5.73	R	49.6
51	MT	482	450	638	4.96	W	251	362	19	6	39.3	56.7	3.0	0.9	-17.4		37.3	60.4	-23.1	38.6	59.1	-20.5		3.1%	-2.6%	-5.7%	-1.3	63.0	32	0.40	Montana	W	3.82	40.95	3	0.02%		4.96	1.55	R	63
52	NC	3,639	3,501	2,167	2.73	S	1,000	1,149	0	18	46.1	53.0	0.0	0.8	-6.9		49.5	50.1	-0.6	43.6	56.0	-12.4		5.5%	11.8%	6.3%	5.9	52.6	138	0.44	North Carolina	S	2.10	46.53	15	0.64%	1	2.73	2.76	B	52.6
53	ND	330	313	687	4.53	M	216	459	7	5	31.4	66.8	1.0	0.7	-35.4		34.6	63.7	-29.1	35.5	62.9	-27.4		-8%	-1.7%	6.3%	-0.9	63.0	17	0.36	North Dakota	M	3.49	32.00	3	0.00%		4.53	-3.99	R	63
54	NE	793	778	785	4.39	M	286	490	7	2	36.4	62.4	0.9	0.3	-26.0		37.0	61.5	-24.5	32.7	65.9	-33.2		7.2%	8.7%	1.5%	4.3	66.5	15	0.33	Nebraska	M	3.37	36.86	5	0.00%		4.39	3.61	R	66.5
55	NH	677	678	1,871	2.91	E	1,061	785	18	7	56.7	42.0	1.0	0.4	14.8	4	57.2	41.9	15.3	50.2	48.9	1.3	4	13.5%	14%	0.5%	7.0	44.0	-1	0.51	New Hampshire	E	2.24	57.48	4	100.00%	1	2.91	6.73	B	44
56	NJ	3,693	3,612	1,520	3.19	E	899	586	26	9	59.1	38.6	1.7	0.6	20.6	15	57.5	41.7	15.8	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	13.9%	9.1%	-4.8%	4.6	59.7	81	0.53	New Jersey	E	2.46	60.54	15	100.00%	1	3.19	6.95	D	59.7
57	NM	837	756	2,006	2.83	W	1,081	889	20	16	53.9	44.3	1.0	0.8	9.6	5	53.0	45.8	7.2	49.0	49.8	-0.8		10.4%	8%	-2.4%	4.0	56.9	81	0.50	New Mexico	W	2.18	54.87	5	99.96%	1	2.83	5.19	B	56.9	5
58	NV	871	830	2,170	2.73	W	1,138	1,008	16	8	52.4	46.5	0.7	0.4	6.0	5	52.8	45.5	7.3	47.9	50.5	-2.6		8.6%	9.9%	1.3%	4.9	49.1	41	0.49	Nevada	W	2.10	53.03	5	98.52%	1	2.73	4.30	B	49.1	5
59	NY	7,698	7,391	1,452	3.23	E	901	525	21	5	62.1	36.2	1.4	0.3	25.9	31	64.5	34.0	30.5	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	7.6%	12.2%	4.6%	6.1	57.9	307	0.59	New York	E	2.48	63.18	31	100.00%	1	3.23	3.80	D	57.9
60	OH	5,485	5,628	2,020	2.82	M	1,092	924	0	4	54.1	45.7	0.0	0.2	8.3	20	54.0	45.5	8.5	48.7	50.8	-2.1		10.4%	10.6%	0.2%	5.3	44.1	-143	0.49	Ohio	M	2.17	54.17	20	99.81%	1	2.82	5.21	B	44.1	20
61	OK	1,541	1,464	1,590	3.08	S	577	996	0	17	36.3	62.6	0.0	1.1	-26.4		33.8	66.2	-32.4	34.4	65.6	-31.2		4.8%	-1.2%	-6%	-0.6	53.2	77	0.34	Oklahoma	S	2.37	36.68	7	0.00%		3.08	2.42	R	53.2
62	OR	1,924	1,837	1,000	4.02	W	522	463	15	0	52.2	46.3	1.5	0.0	5.9	7	52.2	46.3	5.9	51.3	47.2	4.1	7	1.8%	1.8%	0%	0.9	na	87	0.52	Oregon	W	3.09	52.99	7	92.78%		4.02	0.90	B	53
63	PA	5,845	5,770	2,107	2.75	E	1,192	904	0	11	56.6	42.9	0.0	0.5	13.7	21	55.1	44.2	10.9	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	11.2%	8.4%	-2.8%	4.2	46.8	75	0.51	Pennsylvania	E	2.11	56.87	21	100.00%	1	2.75	5.58	B	46.8
64	RI	467	437	809	4.28	E	512	279	13	5	63.3	34.5	1.6	0.6	28.8	4	62.1	36.0	26.1	59.4	38.7	20.7	4	8.1%	5.4%	-2.7%	2.7	44.2	30	0.61	Rhode Island	E	3.29	64.73	4	100.00%		4.28	4.05	B	44.2
65	SC	1,899	1,618	1,782	3.02	S	851	902	25	4	47.8	50.6	1.4	0.2	-2.9		45.8	53.1	-7.3	40.9	58.0	-17.1		14.2%	9.8%	-4.4%	4.9	59.4	281	0.41	South Carolina	S	2.32	48.55	8	17.23%	1	3.02	7.12	R	59.4
66	SD	378	388	1,544	3.11	M	542	967	25	10	35.1	62.6	1.6	0.6	-27.5		35.9	62.5	-26.6	38.4	59.9	-21.5		-6%	-5.1%	0.9%	-2.5	42.7	-10	0.39	South Dakota	M	2.39	35.92	3	0.00%		3.11	-3.01	R	42.7
67	TN	2,319	2,437	1,783	2.98	S	741	1,005	21	16	41.6	56.4	1.2	0.9	-14.8		43.2	56.1	-12.9	42.5	56.8	-14.3		-0.5%	1.4%	1.9%	0.7	66.7	-118	0.43	Tennessee	S	2.29	42.44	11	0.00%		2.98	-0.25	R	66.7
68	TX	7,950	7,411	1,794	2.97	S	744	1,031	0	19	41.5	57.5	0.0	1.1	-16.0		42.0	57.3	-15.3	38.2	61.1	-22.9		6.9%	7.6%	0.7%	3.8	58.3	539	0.38	Texas	S	2.28	41.92	34	0.00%	1	2.97	3.45	R	58.3
69	UT	1,022	928	775	4.28	W	244	514	0	17	31.5	66.3	0.0	2.2	-34.8		28.1	69.4	-41.3	26.0	71.5	-45.5		10.7%	4.2%	-6.5%	2.1	59.6	94	0.27	Utah	W	3.29	32.19	5	0.00%	1	4.28	5.33	R	59.6
70	VA	3,134	3,198	1,431	3.36	S	754	670	0	7	52.7	46.8	0.0	0.5	5.9	13	49.8	49.3	0.5	45.5	53.7	-8.2		14.1%	8.7%	-5.4%	4.3	56.4	-64	0.46	Virginia	S	2.59	52.95	13	95.72%	1	3.36	7.04	B	56.4	13
71	VT	316	312	698	4.37	E	480	194	21	3	68.8	27.8	3.0	0.4	41.0	3	66.5	31.2	35.3	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	20.9%	15.2%	-5.7%	7.6	53.1	4	0.60	Vermont	E	3.36	71.22	3	100.00%	1	4.37	10.44	D	53.1
72	WA	2,851	2,859	2,178	2.70	W	1,230	912	16	20	56.5	41.9	0.7	0.9	14.6	11	56.8	41.6	15.2	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	7.4%	8%	0.6%	4.0	53.8	-8	0.54	Washington	W	2.08	57.42	11	100.00%	1	2.70	3.70	B	53.8
73	WI	3,010	2,997	2,321	2.64	M	1,206	1,086	17	12	52.0	46.8	0.7	0.5	5.2	10	52.1	46.9	5.2	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	4.8%	4.8%	0%	2.4	55.3	13	0.50	Wisconsin	M	2.03	52.62	10	97.40%		2.64	2.39	B	55.3
74	WV	798	756	1,728	3.03	E	721	983	19	5	41.7	56.9	1.1	0.3	-15.2		40.2	59.0	-18.8	43.2	56.1	-12.9		-2.3%	-5.9%	-3.6%	-3.0	48.7	42	0.44	West Virginia	E	2.33	42.31	5	0.00%		3.03	-1.13	R	48.7
75	WY	247	243	761	4.22	W	220	519	12	10	28.9	68.2	1.6	1.3	-39.3		32.6	65.4	-32.8	29.1	68.9	-39.8		0.5%	7%	6.5%	3.5	66.0	4	0.30	Wyoming	W	3.25	29.77	3	0.00%		4.22	0.25	R	66
76
77
78																		86.57%
79		Unadjusted Exit Poll				Unadjusted Bush Approval Rating							Party ID
80		Cast	Recorded	Kerry	Bush		Sample	Appr	Disap			Total	Dem	Rep	Ind
81		125,737	120,436	64,194	59,903		69,553	35,623	33,930			73,588	27,656	25,940	19,992
82				51.05%	47.64%		Avg	51.22%	48.78%			Avg	37.58%	35.25%	27.17%
83							Wtd	50.30%				Wtd	38.76%	35.12%	26.12%
84												Correlation: Bush approval				-0.72	0.93	-0.42		Correl	1.00	0.99	0.93	Pct of Bush share
85												Correlation: Bush share				-0.72	0.93	-0.42		Wtd	47.64	50.30	35.12	Rating	RepID
86
87		Cast	Recd	Kerry	Bush	Sample	Bush Approv	Disap	Rating	Rating-Bush%		Sample	Dem	Rep	Ind	Dem	Rep	Ind		State	Bush Exit	Bush Approval	Repub Party ID	105.87	71.67
88	AK	293	313	44.7%	51.9%	1,193	673	520	56%	5%		1,127	266	390	471	24%	35%	42%		AK	52	56	35	109	67
89	AL	2,060	1,883	39.7%	59.1%	731	436	295	60%	1%		737	252	331	154	34%	45%	21%		AL	59	60	45	101	76
90	AR	1,140	1,055	44.4%	54.8%	1,441	806	635	56%	1%		1,402	553	438	411	39%	31%	29%		AR	55	56	31	102	57
91	AZ	2,239	2,013	46.3%	52.8%	1,822	1,017	805	56%	3%		1,853	563	780	510	30%	42%	28%		AZ	53	56	42	106	80
92	CA	12,807	12,420	53.9%	44.2%	1,796	861	935	48%	4%		2,318	879	809	630	38%	35%	27%		CA	44	48	35	108	79
93	CO	2,097	2,130	49.3%	49.2%	2,375	1,217	1,158	51%	2%		2,477	758	905	814	31%	37%	33%		CO	49	51	37	104	74
94	CT	1,524	1,579	62.5%	36%	785	316	469	40%	4%		860	352	202	306	41%	23%	36%		CT	36	40	23	112	65
95	DC	270	228	90.7%	8.1%	786	93	693	12%	4%		837	591	54	192	71%	6%	23%		DC	8	12	6	146	80
96	DE	385	375	63.3%	36%	714	272	442	38%	2%		756	353	207	196	47%	27%	26%		DE	36	38	27	106	76
97	FL	7,372	7,610	50.8%	48%	2,413	1,236	1,177	51%	3%		2,791	1,088	1,033	670	39%	37%	24%		FL	48	51	37	107	77
98	GA	3,332	3,302	41.8%	57.4%	1,417	827	590	58%	1%		1,576	546	641	389	35%	41%	25%		GA	57	58	41	102	71
99	HI	433	429	61.3%	38.7%	625	275	350	44%	5%		623	259	142	222	42%	23%	36%		HI	39	44	23	114	59
100	IA	1,522	1,507	49.3%	49%	2,441	1,283	1,158	53%	4%		2,450	821	864	765	34%	35%	31%		IA	49	53	35	107	72
101	ID	585	598	27.8%	70.3%	749	535	214	71%	1%		797	165	415	217	21%	52%	27%		ID	70	71	52	102	74
102	IL	5,672	5,274	56%	43.3%	1,129	540	589	48%	5%		1,382	554	450	378	40%	33%	27%		IL	43	48	33	110	75
103	IN	2,598	2,468	39.5%	59.5%	776	484	292	62%	3%		894	278	417	199	31%	47%	22%		IN	60	62	47	105	78
104	KS	1,188	1,188	34.2%	64.6%	588	379	209	64%	0%		654	174	328	152	27%	50%	23%		KS	65	64	50	100	78
105	KY	1,930	1,796	42.4%	56.1%	1,011	577	434	57%	1%		1,016	454	379	183	45%	37%	18%		KY	56	57	37	102	66
106	LA	2,067	1,943	44.2%	54.5%	1,507	857	650	57%	2%		1,606	663	630	313	41%	39%	19%		LA	55	57	39	104	72
107	MA	3,085	1,055	64.7%	33.1%	688	233	455	34%	1%		827	340	119	368	41%	14%	44%		MA	33	34	14	102	43
108	MD	2,413	2,387	54.8%	43.8%	877	391	486	45%	1%		1,016	461	326	229	45%	32%	23%		MD	44	45	32	102	73
109	ME	736	741	55.4%	42.3%	1,899	830	1,069	44%	1%		1,902	608	536	758	32%	28%	40%		ME	42	44	28	103	67
110	MI	4,818	4,839	53.9%	44.7%	2,203	1,050	1,153	48%	3%		2,448	992	795	661	41%	32%	27%		MI	45	48	32	107	73
111	MN	2,887	2,828	56.3%	42.4%	1,914	849	1,065	44%	2%		2,106	868	672	566	41%	32%	27%		MN	42	44	32	105	75
112	MO	2,815	2,731	50.4%	48.7%	2,113	1,066	1,047	50%	2%		2,077	839	672	566	40%	32%	27%		MO	49	50	32	104	66
113	MS	1,263	1,152	45.6%	53.7%	769	431	338	56%	2%		783	331	327	125	42%	42%	16%		MS	54	56	42	104	78
114	MT	482	450	39.3%	56.7%	562	334	228	59%	3%		625	195	249	181	31%	40%	29%		MT	57	59	40	105	70
115	NC	3,639	3,501	46.1%	53%	1,991	1,085	906	54%	1%		2,107	826	825	456	39%	39%	22%		NC	53	54	39	103	74
116	ND	330	313	31.4%	66.8%	658	435	223	66%	-1%		655	162	269	224	25%	41%	34%		ND	67	66	41	99	61
117	NE	793	778	36.4%	62.4%	739	459	280	62%	0%		783	217	387	179	28%	49%	23%		NE	62	62	49	100	79
118	NH	677	678	56.7%	42%	1,820	812	1,008	45%	3%		1,745	479	494	772	27%	28%	44%		NH	42	45	28	106	67
119	NJ	3,693	3,612	59.1%	38.6%	1,290	524	766	41%	2%		1,433	590	399	444	41%	28%	31%		NJ	39	41	28	105	72
120	NM	837	756	53.9%	44.3%	1,970	966	1,004	49%	5%		1,895	866	567	462	46%	30%	24%		NM	44	49	30	111	68
121	NV	871	830	52.4%	46.5%	2,148	1,066	1,082	50%	3%		2,073	755	757	561	36%	37%	27%		NV	47	50	37	107	79
122	NY	7,698	7,391	62.1%	36.2%	1,238	488	750	39%	3%		1,387	668	360	359	48%	26%	26%		NY	36	39	26	109	72
123	OH	5,485	5,628	54.1%	45.7%	1,818	891	927	49%	3%		1,921	761	678	482	40%	35%	25%		OH	46	49	35	107	77
124	OK	1,541	1,464	36.3%	62.6%	1,456	935	521	64%	2%		1,527	616	654	257	40%	43%	17%		OK	63	64	43	103	68
125	OR	1,924	1,837	52.2%	46.3%	1,000	470	530	47%	1%		1,000	390	350	260	39%	35%	26%		OR	46	47	35	102	76
126	PA	5,845	5,770	56.6%	42.9%	1,850	859	991	46%	4%		1,995	885	710	400	44%	36%	20%		PA	43	46	36	108	83
127	RI	467	437	63.3%	34.5%	749	295	454	39%	5%		798	330	118	350	41%	15%	44%		RI	35	39	15	114	43
128	SC	1,899	1,618	47.8%	50.6%	1,673	902	771	54%	3%		1,690	625	657	408	37%	39%	24%		SC	51	54	39	107	77
129	SD	378	388	35.1%	62.6%	1,537	985	552	64%	1%		1,494	478	719	297	32%	48%	20%		SD	63	64	48	102	77
130	TN	2,319	2,437	41.6%	56.4%	1,558	895	663	57%	1%		1,703	550	691	462	32%	41%	27%		TN	56	57	41	102	72
131	TX	7,950	7,411	41.5%	57.5%	1,408	857	551	61%	3%		1,773	635	738	400	36%	42%	23%		TX	58	61	42	106	72
132	UT	1,022	928	31.5%	66.3%	747	503	244	67%	1%		821	171	448	202	21%	55%	25%		UT	66	67	55	102	82
133	VA	3,134	3,198	52.7%	46.8%	1,170	586	584	50%	3%		1,334	526	462	346	39%	35%	26%		VA	47	50	35	107	74
134	VT	316	312	68.8%	27.8%	669	199	470	30%	2%		692	255	149	288	37%	22%	42%		VT	28	30	22	107	77
135	WA	2,851	2,859	56.5%	41.9%	2,071	867	1,204	42%	0%		2,152	858	639	655	40%	30%	30%		WA	42	42	30	100	71
136	WI	3,010	2,997	52%	46.8%	2,173	1,115	1,058	51%	5%		2,225	798	806	621	36%	36%	28%		WI	47	51	36	110	77
137	WV	798	756	41.7%	56.9%	1,734	1,019	715	59%	2%		1,685	815	559	311	48%	33%	18%		WV	57	59	33	103	58
138	WY	247	243	28.9%	68.2%	762	542	220	71%	3%		760	197	393	170	26%	52%	22%		WY	68	71	52	104	76
139
140	Note: OR telephone poll (vote by mail)
141
142	2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
143	(How Voted in 2000)
144
145	3:59pm, 8349 respondents: Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
146	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf
147
148	7:33pm, 11027 respondents: Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
149	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
150
151	12:22am, 13047 respondents: Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%
152	http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif
153
154	Unadjusted. 13660 respondents: Kerry 51.7-Bush 47.0%
155	http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9
156
157	Final NEP 13660 respondents: Kerry 48.5%; Bush 51.1% (forced to match recorded vote)
158	http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf
159
160	http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
161
162			Party - ID			Unadjusted National Exit Poll						Final National Exit Poll						True Vote
163												(adjusted mix to match recorded vote)
164						Unadj
165						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
166			Democrat			38.76%	91%	9%	0%			37%	90%	10%	0%			39%	92%	8%	0%
167			Republican			35.12%	7%	93%	0%			37%	7%	93%	0%			34%	8%	92%	0%
168			Independent			26.12%	53.5%	42.5%	4%			26%	47.5%	48.5%	4%			27%	56%	40%	4%
169
170			Share			100%	51.70%	47.25%	1.04%			100%	48.24%	50.72%	1.04%			100%	53.72%	45.20%	1.08%
171			Votes			125,736.00	65,011	59,412	1,314			122,293	58,994	62,027	1,272			125,736	67,545	56,833	1,358
172
173
174
175			Bush Approval			Unadjusted National Exit Poll							Final National Exit Poll						True Vote
176						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other			Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
177			Approve			50.30%	10%	89%	1%			53%	9.5%	89.5%	1%			48%	10%	89%	1%
178			Dissaprove			49.70%	94%	5%	1%			47%	92%	7%	1%			52%	94%	5%	1%
179
180			Share			100%	51.75%	47.25%	1.00%			100%	48.28%	50.73%	1.00%			100%	53.68%	45.32%	1.00%
181			Votes			125,736	65,066	59,413	1,257			125,736	60,699	63,780	1,257			125,736	67,495	56,984	1,257
182
183												National Exit Poll Timeline
184			Favorability								Voted in 2000
185											359pm	8349					733pm	11027
186			Kerry	Total	Fav	Unfav						Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
187				3,235	1,683	1,552					DNV	15	62	37	1		17	59	39	2
188					52.02%	47.98%					Gore	39	91	8	1		38	91	8	1
189											Bush	42	9	90	1		41	9	90	1
190			Bush	Total	Fav	Unfav					Other	4	61	12	27		4	65	13	22
191				3,254	1,591	1,663					Total	100	51.01	46.95	2.04		100	50.90	47.09	2.01
192					48.89%	51.11%
193			When Decided								1222am	13047					13660 Unadjusted match
194			Today	499	5.62%							Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
195			Last 3	305	3.44%						DNV	17	57	41	2		18.38	57	42	1
196			Last 7	208	2.34%						Gore	39	91	8	1		38.37	91	8	1
197			Last 30	902	10.17%						Bush	41	10	90	0		39.50	10	90	0
198			Before	6,959	78.43%						Other	3	64	17	19		3.75	64	17	19
199			Total	8,873							Total	100	51.20	47.50	1.30		100.00	51.74	46.98	1.28
200
201												13660	Final Recorded Match					True Vote Model
202												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
203											DNV	17	54	45	1		17	57	41	2
204											Gore	37	90	10	0		42	91	8	1
205											Bush	43	9	91	0		38	10	90	0
206											Other	3	71	21	8		3	64	17	19
207											Total	100	48.48	51.11	0.41		100	53.63	45.04	1.33
208
209
210											Gender
211											359pm	8349					733pm	11027
212												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
213											Male	42	47	51	2		46	47	51	2
214											Female	58	53	45	2		54	54	45	1
215											Total	100.00%	50.48%	47.52%	2.00%		100.00%	50.78%	47.76%	1.46%
216
217											1222am	13047					13660 Unadjusted NEP match
218												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
219											Male	46	47	52	1		46	48	50.5	1.5
220											Female	54	54	45	1		54	55	43.8	1.2
221											Total	100	50.78%	48.22%	1.00%		100%	51.78%	46.88%	1.34%
222
223											1am	13660	Final NEP					True Vote Model
224												Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other		Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
225											Male	46	44	55	1		46	50	48.7	1.3
226											Female	54	51	48	1		54	56.5	42	1.5
227											Total	100	47.78%	51.22%	1.00%		100	53.5	45.1	1.4
228
229
230		OHIO
231											Final	CNN						Unadjusted
232			730pm	1963 respondents						1am	2020 respondents						2020 respondents
233			Mix	Kerry	Bush					Mix	Kerry	Bush					Kerry	Bush	Other
234		Female	53%	53%	47%				Female	53%	50%	50%				2020	1092	924	4
235		Male	47%	51%	49%				Male	47%	47%	52%					54.06%	45.74%	0.20%
236		Total		52.06%	47.94%				Total		48.59%	50.94%					MoE	2.17%
237									Recorded		48.7%	50.8%
238
239		FLORIDA
240											Final	CNN					Unadjusted
241			840pm	2846 respondents						1am	2862 respondents						2862 respondents
242			Mix	Kerry	Bush					Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other				Kerry	Bush	Other
243		Female	54%	52%	48%				Female	54%	49%	50%	1%			2862	1454	1375	33
244		Male	46%	47%	52%				Male	46%	46%	53%	1%				50.80%	48.04%	1.15%
245		Total		49.70%	49.84%				Total		47.62%	51.38%	1.00%				MoE	1.81%
246									Recorded		47.1%	52.1%	0.8%
247
248
249
250
251
252
253													National Exit Poll Timeline
254												Time	Resp	Kerry	Bush
255												359pm	8349	50.48%	47.52%
256												730pm	11027	50.78%	47.76%
257												1222am	13047	50.78%	48.22%
258												Final Unadj	13660	51.71%	46.95%
259					Kerry04		Bush					Final Adj	13660	48.28%	50.72%
260				State	Exit	Recorded	Approv
261	Bush Incr			AK	44.7	35.5	34.6
262	VT	20.90		AL	39.7	36.8	44.9
263	DE	19.80		AR	44.4	44.5	31.2
264	AK	18.40		AZ	46.3	44.4	42.1
265	CT	16.10		CA	53.9	54.3	34.9
266	SC	14.20		CO	49.3	47.0	36.5
267	VA	14.10		CT	62.5	54.3	23.5
268	NJ	13.90		DC	90.7	89.2	6.5
269	HI	13.80		DE	63.3	53.3	27.4
270	NH	13.50		FL	50.8	47.1	37.0
271	MS	11.50		GA	41.8	41.4	40.7
272	PA	11.20		HI	61.3	54.0	22.8
273	UT	10.70		IA	49.3	49.2	35.3
274	MN	10.40		IL	56.0	54.8	52.1
275	NM	10.40		IN	39.5	39.3	32.6
276	OH	10.40		KS	34.2	36.6	46.6
277	MO	8.90		KY	42.4	39.7	50.2
278	NV	8.60		LA	44.2	42.2	37.3
279	RI	8.10		MA	64.7	61.9	39.2
280	FL	7.80		MD	54.8	55.9	14.4
281	NY	7.60		ME	55.4	53.6	32.1
282	WA	7.40		MI	53.9	51.2	28.2
283	NE	7.20		MN	56.3	51.1	32.5
284	TX	6.90		MO	50.4	46.1	31.9
285	MA	6.50		MS	45.6	39.8	32.4
286	AL	6.30		MT	39.3	38.6	41.8
287	KY	6.20		NC	46.1	43.6	39.8
288	MI	5.70		NE	36.4	32.7	39.2
289	NC	5.50		NH	56.7	50.2	41.1
290	CO	4.80		NJ	59.1	52.9	49.4
291	OK	4.80		NM	53.9	49.0	28.3
292	WI	4.80		NV	52.4	47.9	27.8
293	LA	4.20		NY	62.1	58.4	29.9
294	ME	4.10		OH	54.1	48.7	36.5
295	AZ	3.90		OK	36.3	34.4	26.0
296	MT	3.10		OR	52.2	51.3	35.3
297	DC	2.70		PA	56.6	50.9	42.8
298	IL	2.40		RI	63.3	59.4	35.0
299	OR	1.80		SC	47.8	40.9	35.6
300	GA	1.00		SD	35.1	38.4	14.8
301	IA	1.00		TN	41.6	42.5	38.9
302	IN	0.60		TX	41.5	38.2	48.1
303	WY	0.50		UT	31.5	26.0	40.6
304	CA	-0.20		VA	52.7	45.5	41.6
305	TN	-0.50		VT	68.8	58.9	54.6
306	AR	-0.60		WA	56.5	52.8	34.6
307	MD	-1.90		WI	52.0	49.7	21.5
308	WV	-2.30		WV	41.7	43.2	29.7
309	ID	-4.30		WY	28.9	29.1	36.2


1
2											2000
3																	154 EV Flip to Bush
4			Unadjusted National Exit Poll							93.31%	True Vote						94.55%	Final National Exit Poll (recorded)
5		Total	Gore	Bush	Nader	Other			Voted '96	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other		Voted '96	Turnout	Mix	Gore	Bush	Other
6		13,108	6,359	6,065	523	161			New/DNV	17,732	16%	52%	43%	5%		New/DNV	18,982	18%	52%	43%	5%
7			48.51%	46.27%	3.99%	1.23%			Clinton	48,763	44%	87%	10%	3%		Clinton	42,183	40%	87%	10%	3%
8			Gore Pop.Vote Win Probabilities						Dole	35,464	32%	7%	91%	2%		Dole	35,856	34%	7%	91%	2%
9			ExitPoll	Sample	Prob	2-pty	MoE		Perot/oth	8,866	8%	23%	65%	12%		Perot/oth	8,437	8%	23%	65%	12%
10	30%	Cluster	National	13,108	98%	51.18%	1.11%
11	382	Exp EV	State	57,866	100%	53.37%	0.53%		Total cast	110,825	100%	50.68%	45.60%	3.72%		Total	105,458	100%	48.38%	47.87%	3.75%
12											110,825	56,166	50,536	4,123				105,458	51,004	50,456	3,998
13	MoE exceeded:		17	states
14	Cluster effect		30%	Unadjusted Unweighted Exit Poll Sample Count							Unadjusted Weighted Exit Poll Shares							Recorded Vote					Exit Poll (WPE/IMS)				Unadj							Response			Margin
15	States	Cast	Votes	Sample	MoEC	Gore	Bush	Buchanan	Nader	Other	Gore	Bush	Buchan	Nader	Other	EV		Gore	Bush	Other	EV	> MoE	Gore	Bush	EV	WPE	Discrep	Unwtd	Gore		Win		B,D,R	Bush	Kerry
16	Unwtd	110,825	105,458	57,866	3.46%	28,242	26,643	535	1,962	484	53,560	46,789	789	3,474	881	404		51,024	50,480	3,954			54,736	52,099	274	2,636	6,227	0 cluster	2-pty		Prob	Gore	RECcorrel	0.33	-0.34	12	31	21	34
17	1	105,458		Sample	3.64%	48.81%	46.04%	0.92%	3.39%	0.84%	50.79%	44.37%	0.75%	3.29%	0.84%			48.38%	47.87%	3.75%	267	17	49.39%	46.90%		1.97%	5.91%	MoE	unadj	EV	ExpEV	Deviation	EPcorrel	0.26	-0.26	Flipped	ExitP	Recorded	RedShift Diff/2	abs(RS/2)
18		Cast	Recorded	Unwtd	3.84%	Wtd	3.46%																					2.95%			382
19	AK	270	286	759	4.43	235	425	18	72	9	31.0	56.0	2.4	9.5	1.2		W	27.7	58.6	13.7		0	31.0	56.0		5.9	5.9	3.41	35.61%	3	0%	3.30	R	61.9	Alaska		-25.03	-30.95	2.96	2.96	32.06
20	AL	1,953	1,673	829	4.42	429	383	6	9	2	51.7	46.2	0.7	1.1	0.2	9	S	41.6	56.5	1.9		1	44.3	53.7		5.5	20.4	3.40	52.83%	9	90%	10.16	R	63.9	Alabama	9	5.55	-14.88	10.21	10.21	42.41
21	AR	936	922	1,092	3.84	570	485	15	16	6	52.2	44.4	1.4	1.5	0.5	6	S	45.9	51.3	2.8		1	47.5	49.7		3.2	13.2	2.96	54.03%	6	98%	6.33	R	61.2	Arkansas	6	7.78	-5.44	6.61	6.61	47.20
22	AZ	1,644	1,534	1,156	3.75	545	536	13	49	13	47.1	46.4	1.1	4.2	1.1	8	W	44.7	51.0	4.4		0	44.7	51.0		0.0	7.1	2.88	50.42%	8	59%	2.47	R	55.3	Arizona	8	0.78	-6.28	3.53	3.53	46.72
23	CA	11,489	10,966	2,740	2.41	1476	1084	13	143	24	53.9	39.6	0.5	5.2	0.9	54	W	53.4	41.7	4.9	54	0	55.3	39.8	54	3.8	2.5	1.85	57.66%	54	100%	0.42	D	48.2	California		14.31	11.80	1.25	1.25	56.20
24	CO	1,633	1,741	924	4.19	419	415	9	69	12	45.3	44.9	1.0	7.5	1.3	8	W	42.4	50.8	6.9		1	45.2	48.0		5.6	8.8	3.22	50.24%	8	54%	2.95	B	50.1	Colorado	8	0.43	-8.36	4.39	4.39	45.51
25	CT	1,332	1,460	1,082	3.81	593	408	6	72	3	54.8	37.7	0.6	6.7	0.3	8	E	55.9	38.4	5.6	8	0	56.4	38.0	8	0.9	-0.4	2.93	59.24%	8	100%	-1.10	D	54.9	Connecticut		17.10	17.47	-0.18	0.18	59.26
26	DC	267	202	637	3.19	536	68	30	0	3	84.1	10.7	4.7	0.0	0.5	3	E	85.2	9.0	5.9	3	0	84.1	10.7	3	-2.7	-2.7	2.45	88.74%	3	100%	-1.01	D	46.8	DC		73.47	76.20	-1.37	1.37	90.49
27	DE	352	328	971	3.99	571	364	5	26	5	58.8	37.5	0.5	2.7	0.5	3	E	55.0	41.9	3.1	3	1	58.5	38.4	3	7.1	8.3	3.07	61.07%	3	100%	3.84	D	52	Delaware		21.32	13.06	4.13	4.13	56.74
28	FL	6,006	6,004	1,816	2.97	969	792	10	30	15	53.4	43.6	0.6	1.7	0.8	25	S	48.8	48.8	2.3		1	49.1	48.5	25	0.6	9.8	2.29	55.03%	25	100%	4.52	B	54.6	Florida	25	9.75	-0.01	4.88	4.88	50.00
29	GA	2,827	2,597	1,245	3.61	613	581	20	0	31	49.2	46.7	1.6	0.0	2.5	13	S	43.0	54.7	2.3		1	45.8	51.9		5.6	14.3	2.78	51.34%	13	77%	6.25	R	49.9	Georgia	13	2.57	-11.69	7.13	7.13	44.02
30	HI	340	368	825	4.40	431	330	10	50	4	52.2	40.0	1.2	6.1	0.5	4	W	55.8	37.5	6.7	4	0	52.2	40.0	4	-6.1	-6.1	3.38	56.64%	4	100%	-3.55	D	54.8	Hawaii		12.24	18.33	-3.04	3.04	59.83
31	IA	1,353	1,316	1,004	4.02	463	508	8	18	7	46.1	50.6	0.8	1.8	0.7		M	48.5	48.2	3.2	7	0	47.0	49.7		-3.0	-4.8	3.09	47.68%	7	13%	-2.42	B	60.3	Iowa		-4.48	0.31	-2.40	2.40	50.16
32	ID	500	502	824	4.25	270	489	16	0	49	32.8	59.3	1.9	0.0	5.9		W	27.6	67.2	5.2		1	26.4	68.4		-2.5	13.0	3.27	35.57%	4	0%	5.13	R	60.9	Idaho		-26.58	-39.53	6.48	6.48	29.15
33	IL	5,030	4,742	1,475	3.26	831	572	10	56	6	56.3	38.8	0.7	3.8	0.4	22	M	54.6	42.6	2.8	22	0	57.8	39.4	22	6.4	5.5	2.51	59.23%	22	100%	1.74	D	45.8	Illinois		17.56	12.01	2.77	2.77	56.18
34	IN	2,564	2,199	1,166	3.72	533	603	6	0	24	45.7	51.7	0.5	0.0	2.1		M	41.0	56.6	2.3		1	42.8	54.8		3.6	9.6	2.86	46.92%	12	5%	4.70	R	53.1	Indiana		-6.00	-15.63	4.82	4.82	42.00
35	KS	1,148	1,072	734	4.63	288	412	11	20	3	39.2	56.1	1.5	2.7	0.4		M	37.2	58.0	4.7		0	39.4	55.8		4.4	3.9	3.56	41.14%	6	0%	2.00	R	64.2	Kansas		-16.89	-20.80	1.95	1.95	39.08
36	KY	1,645	1,544	1,134	3.75	473	625	9	22	5	41.7	55.1	0.8	1.9	0.4		M	41.4	56.5	2.1		0	39.2	58.7		-4.4	1.7	2.88	43.08%	8	0%	0.34	R	53.8	Kentucky		-13.40	-15.13	0.86	0.86	42.27
37	LA	2,030	1,766	1,241	3.62	598	610	12	13	8	48.2	49.2	1.0	1.0	0.6		S	44.9	52.6	2.6		0	45.2	52.3		0.6	6.7	2.78	49.50%	9	39%	3.31	R	59.1	Louisiana		-0.97	-7.68	3.35	3.35	46.06
38	MA	2,772	2,703	887	4.08	534	286	8	50	9	60.2	32.2	0.9	5.6	1.0	12	E	59.8	32.5	7.7	12	0	62.0	30.4	12	4.3	0.7	3.14	65.12%	12	100%	0.40	D	54	Massachusetts		27.96	27.30	0.33	0.33	64.79
39	MD	2,178	2,025	849	4.20	518	294	8	27	2	61.0	34.6	0.9	3.2	0.2	10	E	56.6	40.2	3.3	10	1	58.7	38.0	10	4.3	10.0	3.23	63.79%	10	100%	4.44	D	64.9	Maryland		26.38	16.39	5.00	5.00	58.47
40	ME	677	652	993	4.04	470	420	11	84	8	47.3	42.3	1.1	8.5	0.8	4	E	49.1	44.0	6.9	4	0	50.1	42.9	4	2.1	-0.1	3.11	52.81%	4	91%	-1.75	B	66	Maine		5.04	5.11	-0.04	0.04	52.75
41	MI	4,343	4,233	1,636	3.14	875	722	0	0	39	53.5	44.1	0.0	0.0	2.4	18	M	51.3	46.1	2.6	18	0	52.4	45.0	18	2.2	4.2	2.41	54.79%	18	100%	2.21	B	48.4	Michigan		9.35	5.13	2.11	2.11	52.63
42	MN	2,376	2,439	1,172	3.72	532	571	5	57	7	45.4	48.7	0.4	4.9	0.6		M	47.9	45.5	6.6	10	0	47.7	45.8	10	-0.5	-5.7	2.86	48.23%	10	18%	-2.51	B	46.9	Minnesota		-3.33	2.40	-2.87	2.87	51.29
43	MO	2,659	2,360	1,443	3.35	712	687	12	25	7	49.3	47.6	0.8	1.7	0.5	11	M	47.1	50.4	2.5		0	46.2	51.3		-1.8	5.1	2.58	50.89%	11	70%	2.26	B	38.1	Missouri	11	1.73	-3.34	2.54	2.54	48.29
44	MS	1,213	995	781	4.53	344	427	2	6	2	44.0	54.7	0.3	0.8	0.3		S	40.7	57.6	1.7		0	42.3	56.0		3.2	6.3	3.49	44.62%	7	1%	3.34	R	69.7	Mississippi		-10.63	-16.91	3.14	3.14	41.40
45	MT	409	411	900	4.06	288	530	13	64	5	32.0	58.9	1.4	7.1	0.6		W	33.4	58.4	8.2		0	31.8	60.0		-3.2	-1.8	3.12	35.21%	3	0%	-1.36	R	55.9	Montana		-26.89	-25.07	-0.91	0.91	36.34
46	NC	2,995	2,911	1,217	3.65	617	577	7	0	16	50.7	47.4	0.6	0.0	1.3	14	S	43.2	56.0	0.8		1	48.1	51.1		9.8	16.1	2.81	51.68%	14	82%	7.50	B	56.2	North Carolina	14	3.29	-12.83	8.06	8.06	43.54
47	ND	313	288	869	4.08	277	549	16	21	6	31.9	63.2	1.8	2.4	0.7		M	33.1	60.7	6.3		0	32.1	61.7		-2.0	-3.7	3.14	33.54%	3	0%	-1.18	R	68.5	North Dakota		-31.30	-27.60	-1.85	1.85	35.27
48	NE	710	697	966	3.80	287	627	17	33	2	29.7	64.9	1.8	3.4	0.2		M	33.3	62.2	4.5		0	35.3	60.2		4.1	-6.2	2.93	31.40%	5	0%	-3.54	R	50.7	Nebraska		-35.20	-28.99	-3.10	3.10	34.82
49	NH	571	569	1,235	3.63	583	587	6	50	9	47.2	47.5	0.5	4.0	0.7		E	46.8	48.1	5.1		0	48.0	46.9	4	2.4	0.9	2.79	49.83%	4	46%	0.40	B	54.8	New Hampshire		-0.32	-1.27	0.47	0.47	49.33
50	NJ	3,374	3,187	1,569	3.12	922	566	10	63	8	58.8	36.1	0.6	4.0	0.5	15	E	56.1	40.3	3.6	15	1	56.3	40.1	15	0.4	6.9	2.40	61.96%	15	100%	2.64	D	51.8	New Jersey		22.69	15.83	3.43	3.43	58.21
51	NM	647	599	862	4.34	422	389	4	42	5	49.0	45.1	0.5	4.9	0.6	5	W	47.9	47.8	4.2	5	0	45.4	50.4		-5.1	3.8	3.34	52.03%	5	82%	1.05	B	57.5	New Mexico		3.83	0.06	1.88	1.88	50.03
52	NV	641	609	1,001	4.03	490	467	5	32	7	49.0	46.7	0.5	3.2	0.7	4	W	46.0	49.5	4.5		0	49.0	46.5	4	6.0	5.8	3.10	51.20%	4	72%	2.98	B	50	Nevada	4	2.30	-3.55	2.92	2.92	48.14
53	NY	7,004	6,823	2,268	2.57	1342	768	20	127	11	59.2	33.9	0.9	5.6	0.5	33	E	60.2	35.2	4.6	33	0	61.9	33.6	33	3.3	0.3	1.98	63.60%	33	100%	-1.04	D	53.9	New York		25.31	24.98	0.16	0.16	63.09
54	OH	4,823	4,705	1,952	2.88	925	946	14	62	5	47.4	48.5	0.7	3.2	0.3		M	46.5	50.0	3.6		0	47.0	49.5		1.0	2.4	2.22	49.44%	21	35%	0.93	B	44.9	Ohio		-1.08	-3.51	1.22	1.22	48.18
55	OK	1,431	1,234	689	4.56	221	454	10	0	4	32.1	65.9	1.5	0.0	0.6		S	38.4	60.3	1.3		1	36.1	62.7		-4.7	-11.9	3.50	32.74%	8	0%	-6.35	R	64.8	Oklahoma		-33.82	-21.88	-5.97	5.97	38.92
56	OR	1,529	1,534	652	4.99	306	303	1	41	0	47.0	46.5	0.2	6.4	2.2	7	W	47.0	46.5	6.5	7	0	47.0	49.0		-2.4	-2.4	3.84	50.24%	7	54%	0.00	B	53.7	Oregon		0.44	0.44	0.00	0.00	50.24
57	PA	4,988	4,913	1,831	2.97	936	830	12	46	7	51.1	45.3	0.7	2.5	0.4	23	E	50.6	46.4	3.0	23	0	51.0	46.0	23	0.8	1.6	2.29	53.00%	23	98%	0.52	B	48.5	Pennsylvania		5.79	4.17	0.81	0.81	52.15
58	RI	438	409	1,103	3.64	639	334	26	97	7	57.9	30.3	2.4	8.8	0.6	4	E	61.0	31.9	7.1	4	0	61.2	31.7	4	0.4	-1.4	2.80	65.67%	4	100%	-3.05	D	42.7	Rhode Island		27.65	29.08	-0.71	0.71	65.65
59	SC	1,725	1,384	836	4.40	381	431	5	14	5	45.6	51.6	0.6	1.7	0.6		S	40.9	56.8	2.3		1	42.7	55.1		3.5	9.9	3.38	46.92%	8	9%	4.67	R	60.3	South Carolina		-5.98	-15.93	4.97	4.97	41.85
60	SD	311	316	583	5.06	206	368	4	0	5	35.3	63.1	0.7	0.0	0.9		M	37.6	60.3	2.1		0	38.0	59.8		0.9	-5.1	3.89	35.89%	3	0%	-2.23	R	34.4	South Dakota		-27.79	-22.73	-2.53	2.53	38.39
61	TN	2,183	2,076	1,053	3.90	573	458	6	9	7	54.4	43.5	0.6	0.9	0.7	11	S	47.3	51.1	1.6		1	46.2	52.2		-2.2	14.8	3.00	55.58%	11	100%	7.13	R	64.5	Tennessee	11	10.92	-3.86	7.39	7.39	48.04
62	TX	7,005	6,408	852	4.36	422	386	8	30	6	49.5	45.3	0.9	3.5	0.7	32	S	38.0	59.3	2.7		1	38.2	59.1		0.4	25.5	3.35	52.23%	32	84%	11.55	R	61.1	Texas	32	4.23	-21.32	12.77	12.77	39.04
63	UT	829	771	832	3.82	193	583	11	37	8	23.2	70.1	1.3	4.4	1.0		W	26.3	66.8	6.8		0	25.8	67.3		-1.0	-6.4	2.94	24.87%	5	0%	-3.15	R	57.6	Utah		-46.88	-40.49	-3.19	3.19	28.27
64	VA	2,962	2,739	1,559	3.23	757	747	5	38	12	48.6	47.9	0.3	2.4	0.8	13	S	44.4	52.5	3.1		1	45.4	51.5		2.0	8.7	2.48	50.33%	13	58%	4.12	B	48.8	Virginia	13	0.64	-8.04	4.34	4.34	45.85
65	VT	290	294	1,161	3.72	588	478	12	76	7	50.6	41.2	1.0	6.5	0.6	3	E	50.6	40.7	8.7	3	0	50.4	40.9	3	-0.4	-0.5	2.86	55.16%	3	100%	0.01	D	60.3	Vermont		9.47	9.94	-0.23	0.23	55.44
66	WA	2,527	2,489	1,797	2.98	943	725	11	103	15	52.5	40.3	0.6	5.7	0.8	11	W	50.1	44.6	5.3	11	1	52.0	42.7	11	3.7	6.6	2.29	56.53%	11	100%	2.34	B	50.4	Washington		12.13	5.58	3.28	3.28	52.94
67	WI	2,632	2,599	1,145	3.77	543	541	9	48	4	47.4	47.2	0.8	4.2	0.3	11	M	47.8	47.6	4.6	11	0	46.6	48.8		-2.4	0.0	2.90	50.09%	11	52%	-0.41	B	51.7	Wisconsin		0.17	0.22	-0.02	0.02	50.12
68	WV	732	648	792	4.51	348	415	12	15	2	43.9	52.4	1.5	1.9	0.3		E	45.6	51.9	2.5		0	43.3	54.2		-4.5	-2.1	3.47	45.61%	5	3%	-1.65	R	55.8	West Virginia		-8.46	-6.32	-1.07	1.07	46.76
69	WY	219	218	728	4.31	205	487	18	0	18	28.2	66.9	2.5	0.0	2.5		W	27.7	67.8	4.5		0	28.2	67.3		1.0	1.3	3.32	29.62%	3	0%	0.46	R	60.1	Wyoming		-38.74	-40.06	0.66	0.66	29.02
70
71
72
73
74				2000 NEP: How Voted in 1996
75															True Vote -4					Unadjusted 1996
76		Cast	EV	Sample	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	DNV	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	DNV	Clinton	Diff	MoE	Diff/MoE	Recorded		Clinton	Dole	Perot/Ot		1996
77		110,825	538	48,704	23,742	14,567	3,363	1,413	5,619	50.41%	28.63%	6.34%	2.92%	10.43%	53.65%	-3.24%	3.64%	-89%	49.23%		52.64%	37.06%	10.30%		105,013
78				Avg	48.75%	29.91%	6.90%	2.90%	11.54%	55,867	31,729	7,028	3,239	11,563							52.55	37.41	11.02
79									97,904	57.06%	32.41%	7.18%	3.31%
80
81	AK	270	3	729	263	261	76	38	91	36%	36%	10%	5%	11%	43%	-7%	3%	-210%	33%		36.8	47.2	16.0	AK	240
82	AL	1,953	9	746	367	276	23	11	69	49%	37%	3%	1%	8%	49%	0%	4%	-7%	43%		51.9	43.7	4.4	AL	1,744
83	AR	936	6	943	504	272	44	30	93	53%	29%	5%	3%	9%	55%	-2%	3%	-61%	54%		56.8	32.3	10.9	AR	949
84	AZ	1,644	10	1,012	457	315	74	28	138	45%	31%	7%	3%	12%	49%	-4%	3%	-119%	47%		46.5	44.3	9.2	AZ	1,489
85	CA	11,489	55	2,118	1,095	617	119	75	212	52%	29%	6%	4%	9%	55%	-3%	2%	-162%	51%		57.0	33.2	9.8	CA	11,079
86	CO	1,633	9	761	355	205	61	27	113	47%	27%	8%	4%	13%	52%	-5%	4%	-152%	44%		45.8	44.1	10.1	CO	1,682
87	CT	1,332	7	945	489	257	88	19	92	52%	27%	9%	2%	9%	53%	-1%	3%	-41%	53%		52.0	35.4	12.6	CT	1,409
88	DC	267	3	630	511	52	8	11	48	81%	8%	1%	2%	7%	81%	0%	3%	10%	85%		85.0	8.2	6.8	DC	239
89	DE	352	3	841	443	212	42	17	127	53%	25%	5%	2%	13%	53%	0%	3%	-6%	52%		53.2	36.4	10.4	DE	293
90	FL	6,006	27	1,370	690	374	95	25	186	50%	27%	7%	2%	12%	50%	0%	3%	7%	48%		55.5	36.2	8.3	FL	5,516
91	GA	2,827	15	999	497	298	63	28	113	50%	30%	6%	3%	10%	51%	-1%	3%	-28%	46%		47.6	43.5	8.9	GA	2,632
92	HI	340	4	792	489	180	38	25	60	62%	23%	5%	3%	7%	58%	4%	3%	125%	57%		58.2	31.0	10.8	HI	361
93	IA	1,353	7	873	410	271	69	15	108	47%	31%	8%	2%	11%	56%	-9%	3%	-263%	50%		46.7	41.5	11.8	IA	1,291
94	ID	500	4	757	274	270	82	22	109	36%	36%	11%	3%	13%	44%	-7%	3%	-215%	34%		33.8	52.1	14.0	ID	502
95	IL	5,030	21	1,062	615	248	60	19	120	58%	23%	6%	2%	10%	56%	2%	3%	70%	54%		56.1	33.5	10.3	IL	4,779
96	IN	2,564	11	1,109	447	308	63	190	101	40%	28%	6%	17%	8%	49%	-8%	3%	-287%	42%		49.6	39.7	10.8	IN	2,367
97	KS	1,148	6	634	247	272	43	8	64	39%	43%	7%	1%	9%	48%	-9%	4%	-247%	36%		38.8	53.2	8.1	KS	1,129
98	KY	1,645	8	976	421	334	70	22	129	43%	34%	7%	2%	12%	51%	-7%	3%	-241%	46%		44.0	46.1	9.9	KY	1,535
99	LA	2,030	9	1,106	556	335	53	42	120	50%	30%	5%	4%	10%	53%	-3%	3%	-107%	52%		48.8	43.6	7.7	LA	1,915
100	MA	2,772	12	760	478	154	53	16	59	63%	20%	7%	2%	7%	58%	4%	3%	129%	61%		60.6	27.7	11.8	MA	2,569
101	MD	2,178	10	731	442	165	38	5	81	60%	23%	5%	1%	10%	56%	5%	4%	136%	54%		54.6	30.5	14.9	MD	2,048
102	ME	677	4	861	444	191	101	35	90	52%	22%	12%	4%	9%	52%	-1%	3%	-26%	52%		51.6	30.8	17.6	ME	626
103	MI	4,343	17	1,284	665	331	94	28	166	52%	26%	7%	2%	11%	54%	-2%	3%	-65%	52%		54.8	34.2	11.0	MI	4,080
104	MN	2,376	10	983	481	271	100	15	116	49%	28%	10%	2%	11%	56%	-7%	3%	-225%	51%		50.7	35.2	14.1	MN	2,259
105	MO	2,659	11	1,279	619	414	70	22	154	48%	32%	5%	2%	11%	55%	-7%	3%	-246%	48%		52.5	34.9	12.5	MO	2,397
106	MS	1,213	6	674	303	240	30	15	86	45%	36%	4%	2%	11%	49%	-4%	4%	-106%	44%		49.7	46.3	3.9	MS	1,069
107	MT	409	3	837	337	314	93	15	78	40%	38%	11%	2%	9%	51%	-11%	3%	-322%	41%		42.3	40.2	17.5	MT	437
108	NC	2,995	15	958	445	308	58	19	128	46%	32%	6%	2%	12%	51%	-4%	3%	-142%	44%		51.2	41.6	7.1	NC	2,897
109	ND	313	3	832	327	320	70	18	97	39%	38%	8%	2%	10%	49%	-10%	3%	-294%	40%		44.2	42.4	13.3	ND	300
110	NE	710	5	879	295	412	73	17	82	34%	47%	8%	2%	9%	45%	-12%	3%	-382%	35%		37.9	49.9	12.2	NE	720
111	NH	571	4	1,126	503	345	92	45	141	45%	31%	8%	4%	11%	49%	-5%	3%	-164%	49%		56.1	34.0	9.8	NH	518
112	NJ	3,374	15	1,243	716	318	67	23	119	58%	26%	5%	2%	9%	52%	5%	3%	197%	54%		59.3	30.2	10.5	NJ	3,251
113	NM	647	5	714	333	222	37	23	99	47%	31%	5%	3%	12%	54%	-8%	4%	-205%	49%		55.0	35.6	9.3	NM	627
114	NV	641	5	873	372	253	86	37	125	43%	29%	10%	4%	13%	48%	-6%	3%	-172%	44%		44.9	41.8	13.3	NV	562
115	NY	7,004	31	1,667	948	379	108	31	201	57%	23%	6%	2%	11%	58%	-1%	2%	-33%	59%		60.7	28.5	10.9	NY	6,830
116	OH	4,823	20	1,496	689	476	118	35	178	46%	32%	8%	2%	11%	52%	-6%	3%	-237%	47%		51.7	37.3	11.0	OH	4,811
117	OK	1,431	7	628	219	258	59	11	81	35%	41%	9%	2%	11%	47%	-13%	4%	-336%	40%		40.6	45.5	13.9	OK	1,379
118	OR	1,529	7	294	172	45	15	55	7	59%	15%	5%	19%	2%	55%	4%	6%	65%	47%		49.4	33.4	17.2	OR	1,462
119	PA	4,988	21	1,481	737	467	87	26	164	50%	32%	6%	2%	10%	55%	-5%	3%	-188%	49%		53.9	35.7	10.5	PA	4,951
120	RI	438	4	1,035	601	191	70	40	133	58%	18%	7%	4%	11%	59%	-1%	3%	-21%	60%		61.8	24.3	13.8	RI	439
121	SC	1,725	8	677	305	227	28	15	102	45%	34%	4%	2%	13%	54%	-9%	4%	-230%	44%		46.5	46.0	7.5	SC	1,479
122	SD	311	3	565	242	227	43	8	45	43%	40%	8%	1%	7%	52%	-9%	4%	-222%	43%		45.9	44.4	9.7	SD	336
123	TN	2,183	11	899	455	287	35	17	105	51%	32%	4%	2%	10%	52%	-2%	3%	-50%	48%		54.2	39.1	6.7	TN	2,133
124	TX	7,005	34	514	275	119	24	15	81	54%	23%	5%	3%	14%	50%	3%	4%	75%	44%		46.2	46.3	7.5	TX	6,210
125	UT	829	5	775	214	351	70	22	118	28%	45%	9%	3%	13%	43%	-15%	3%	-485%	33%		40.0	47.1	12.9	UT	707
126	VA	2,962	13	1,312	615	442	53	28	174	47%	34%	4%	2%	12%	50%	-3%	3%	-106%	45%		53.8	39.2	6.9	VA	2,796
127	VT	290	3	1,038	566	273	94	32	73	55%	26%	9%	3%	7%	55%	-1%	3%	-27%	53%		56.3	26.7	16.9	VT	258
128	WA	2,527	11	1,512	791	419	130	41	131	52%	28%	9%	3%	8%	55%	-3%	3%	-118%	50%		51.4	36.6	12.0	WA	2,436
129	WI	2,632	10	917	431	276	64	24	122	47%	30%	7%	3%	12%	55%	-8%	3%	-238%	49%		51.6	34.0	14.4	WI	2,330
130	WV	732	5	732	340	237	56	12	87	46%	32%	8%	2%	11%	57%	-10%	4%	-290%	52%		52.1	37.5	10.4	WV	715
131	WY	219	3	725	252	278	76	16	103	35%	38%	10%	2%	12%	47%	-12%	3%	-343%	37%		37.6	46.7	15.6	WY	230
132
133		St	Votes					105,013
134		Alabama	1953	AK	270	240
135		Alaska	270	AL	1953	1,744
136		Arizona	1644	AR	936	949
137		Arkansas	936	AZ	1644	1,489
138		California	11489	CA	11489	11,079
139		Colorado	1633	CO	1633	1,682
140		Connecticut	1332	CT	1332	1,409
141		Delaware	352	DC	267	239
142		D. C.	267	DE	352	293
143		Florida	6006	FL	6006	5,516
144		Georgia	2827	GA	2827	2,632
145		Hawaii	340	HI	340	361
146		Idaho	500	IA	1353	1,291
147		Illinois	5030	ID	500	502
148		Indiana	2564	IL	5030	4,779
149		Iowa	1353	IN	2564	2,367
150		Kansas	1148	KS	1148	1,129
151		Kentucky	1645	KY	1645	1,535
152		Louisiana	2030	LA	2030	1,915
153		Maine	677	MA	2772	2,569
154		Maryland	2178	MD	2178	2,048
155		Massachusetts	2772	ME	677	626
156		Michigan	4343	MI	4343	4,080
157		Minnesota	2376	MN	2376	2,259
158		Mississippi	1213	MO	2659	2,397
159		Missouri	2659	MS	1213	1,069
160		Montana	409	MT	409	437
161		Nebraska	710	NC	2995	2,897
162		Nevada	641	ND	313	300
163		New Hampshire	571	NE	710	720
164		New Jersey	3374	NH	571	518
165		New Mexico	647	NJ	3374	3,251
166		New York	7004	NM	647	627
167		North Carolina	2995	NV	641	562
168		North Dakota	313	NY	7004	6,830
169		Ohio	4823	OH	4823	4,811
170		Oklahoma	1431	OK	1431	1,379
171		Oregon	1529	OR	1529	1,462
172		Pennsylvania	4988	PA	4988	4,951
173		Rhode Island	438	RI	438	439
174		South Carolina	1725	SC	1725	1,479
175		South Dakota	311	SD	311	336
176		Tennessee	2183	TN	2183	2,133
177		Texas	7005	TX	7005	6,210
178		Utah	829	UT	829	707
179		South Carolina	1725	VA	2962	2,796
180		South Dakota	311	VT	290	258
181		Tennessee	2183	WA	2527	2,436
182		Texas	7005	WI	2632	2,330
183		Utah	829	WV	732	715
184		Vermont	290	WY	219	230
185		Virginia	2962
186		Washington	2527
187		West Virginia	732
188		Wisconsin	2632
189		Wyoming	219
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198	Wtd	56.48	50.75	44.49	48.28	48.02	53.33	Gore Appoval Difference
199	Avg	54.96	47.59	47.27	46.01	49.63	50.18				Diff	6
200								0.86	Correl	0.96	Unadjusted	Recorded	2pty
201		Approval	Unadjusted Exit Poll		Recorded		2-pty	7.38	4.78	8.95	<Diff	<Diff	<Diff
202		Clinton	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Gore	unadj	2pty	Recorded	20	6	31
203	AK	44	30.96	55.99	27.67	58.62	35.61	13.04	8.39	16.33	0	0	0
204	AL	47	51.75	46.20	41.59	56.47	52.83	-4.75	-5.83	5.41	1	1	1
205	AR	53	52.20	44.41	45.86	51.31	54.03	0.80	-1.03	7.14	1	0	1
206	AZ	52	47.15	46.37	44.67	50.95	50.42	4.85	1.58	7.33	1	0	1
207	CA	62	53.87	39.56	53.45	41.65	57.66	8.13	4.34	8.55	0	0	1
208	CO	53	45.35	44.91	42.39	50.75	50.24	7.65	2.76	10.61	0	0	1
209	CT	63	54.81	37.71	55.91	38.44	59.24	8.19	3.76	7.09	0	0	1
210	DC	87	84.14	10.68	85.16	8.95	88.74	2.86	-1.74	1.84	1	1	1
211	DE	64	58.81	37.49	54.96	41.90	61.07	5.19	2.93	9.04	1	0	1
212	FL	58	53.36	43.61	48.84	48.85	55.03	4.64	2.97	9.16	1	0	1
213	GA	51	49.24	46.67	42.98	54.67	51.34	1.76	-0.34	8.02	1	0	1
214	HI	65	52.24	40.00	55.79	37.46	56.64	12.76	8.36	9.21	0	0	0
215	IA	56	46.12	50.60	48.54	48.22	47.68	9.88	8.32	7.46	0	0	0
216	ID	40	32.77	59.34	27.64	67.17	35.57	7.23	4.43	12.36	0	0	1
217	IL	64	56.34	38.78	54.60	42.58	59.23	7.66	4.77	9.40	0	0	1
218	IN	48	45.71	51.72	41.01	56.65	46.92	2.29	1.08	6.99	1	0	1
219	KS	50	39.24	56.13	37.24	58.04	41.14	10.76	8.86	12.76	0	0	0
220	KY	49	41.71	55.11	41.37	56.50	43.08	7.29	5.92	7.63	0	0	1
221	LA	50	48.19	49.15	44.88	52.55	49.50	1.81	0.50	5.12	1	1	1
222	MA	69	60.20	32.24	59.80	32.50	65.12	8.80	3.88	9.20	0	0	1
223	MD	63	61.01	34.63	56.57	40.18	63.79	1.99	-0.79	6.43	1	0	1
224	ME	60	47.33	42.30	49.09	43.97	52.81	12.67	7.19	10.91	0	0	0
225	MI	58	53.48	44.13	51.28	46.14	54.79	4.52	3.21	6.72	1	0	1
226	MN	64	45.39	48.72	47.91	45.50	48.23	18.61	15.77	16.09	0	0	0
227	MO	55	49.34	47.61	47.08	50.42	50.89	5.66	4.11	7.92	1	0	1
228	MS	49	44.05	54.67	40.70	57.62	44.62	4.95	4.38	8.30	1	0	1
229	MT	43	32.00	58.89	33.36	58.44	35.21	11.00	7.79	9.64	0	0	0
230	NC	50	50.70	47.41	43.20	56.03	51.68	-0.70	-1.68	6.80	1	0	1
231	ND	48	31.88	63.18	33.05	60.66	33.54	16.12	14.46	14.95	0	0	0
232	NE	42	29.71	64.91	33.25	62.25	31.40	12.29	10.60	8.75	0	0	0
233	NH	56	47.21	47.53	46.80	48.07	49.83	8.79	6.17	9.20	0	0	0
234	NJ	66	58.76	36.07	56.13	40.29	61.96	7.24	4.04	9.87	0	0	1
235	NM	52	48.96	45.13	47.91	47.85	52.03	3.04	-0.03	4.09	1	1	1
236	NV	56	48.95	46.65	45.98	49.52	51.20	7.05	4.80	10.02	0	0	1
237	NY	66	59.17	33.86	60.21	35.23	63.60	6.83	2.40	5.79	0	1	1
238	OH	56	47.39	48.46	46.46	49.97	49.44	8.61	6.56	9.54	0	0	0
239	OK	46	32.08	65.89	38.43	60.31	32.74	13.92	13.26	7.57	0	0	0
240	OR	55	47.00	49.00	46.96	46.52	48.96	8.00	6.04	8.04	0	0	0
241	PA	57	51.12	45.33	50.60	46.43	53.00	5.88	4.00	6.40	1	0	1
242	RI	72	57.93	30.28	60.99	31.91	65.67	14.07	6.33	11.01	0	0	0
243	SC	50	45.57	51.56	40.91	56.83	46.92	4.43	3.08	9.09	1	0	1
244	SD	52	35.33	63.12	37.56	60.30	35.89	16.67	16.11	14.44	0	0	0
245	TN	50	54.42	43.49	47.28	51.15	55.58	-4.42	-5.58	2.72	1	1	1
246	TX	45	49.53	45.31	37.98	59.30	52.23	-4.53	-7.23	7.02	1	0	0
247	UT	40	23.20	70.07	26.34	66.83	24.87	16.80	15.13	13.66	0	0	0
248	VA	55	48.56	47.92	44.44	52.47	50.33	6.44	4.67	10.56	0	0	1
249	VT	64	50.65	41.17	50.63	40.70	55.16	13.35	8.84	13.37	0	0	0
250	WA	58	52.48	40.35	50.13	44.56	56.53	5.52	1.47	7.87	1	0	1
251	WI	56	47.42	47.25	47.83	47.61	50.09	8.58	5.91	8.17	0	0	1
252	WV	55	43.94	52.40	45.59	51.92	45.61	11.06	9.39	9.41	0	0	0
253	WY	39	28.16	66.90	27.70	67.76	29.62	10.84	9.38	11.30	0	0	0
254


1
2											1996
3	88.54%	96%		CONFIRMATION TEST												93 EV Flip to Dole
4	1992	LiveVoter	1992 Exit Poll returning voters							83.49%	Unadjusted National Exit Poll					77.43%	Final National Exit Poll (recorded)
5	ExitPoll	Turnout	1996	Mix	Clinton	Dole	Other		1992	Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Dole	Other		Turnout	Mix	Clinton	Dole	Other
6	-	9,241	New/DNV	8.80%	55%	31%	14%		New/DNV	14,702	14%	55%	31%	14%		12,516	13%	55%	33%	12%
7	46.31%	44,352	Clinton	42.23%	85%	9%	6%		Clinton	44,105	42%	85%	9%	6%		36,585	38%	85%	9%	6%
8	33.47%	32,055	Bush	30.52%	14%	81%	5%		Bush	28,354	27%	14%	81%	5%		29,845	31%	13%	82%	5%
9	20.22%	19,365	Perot/Other	18.44%	32%	42%	26%		Perot/Other	17,852	17%	32%	42%	26%		17,330	18%	32%	42%	26%
10
11		105,013	Total	100%	50.91%	39.00%	10.09%		Total	105,013	100%	52.63%	37.19%	10.18%		96,275	100%	49.24%	40.69%	10.07%
12				105,013	53,466	40,954	10,593				105,013	55,273	39,050	10,690			96,275	47,406	39,174	9,695
13
14	Cluster>	30%			Unadjusted Exit Poll Sample							Unadjusted Exit Poll Weighted Vote Shares						Recorded Vote												11
15	States	EV	Cast	Recorded	Sample	MoEC	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	Cast	Clinton	Dole	Perot	Other	Margin	EV	Clinton	Dole	Other	Margin	EV	Discrepancy	>MoE		2-party	MoE	3.31%		EV Flip
16	Unweighted	538	105,013	96,275	69,716	3.35%	35,748	26,336	6,379	1,253	105,013	50,702	35,613	8,308	1,653	15,089	464	47,400	39,199	9,677	8,201	379				Clinton	no			93	44
17	1	96,275				3.31%	51.28%	37.78%	9.15%	1.80%		52.66%	36.99%	8.63%	1.72%	15.67%		49.18%	40.82%	10.00%	8.36%		7.31%	19			cluster	MoE	B,D,R		RedShift	abs(red shift)
18						3.48%	57.58%	42.42%																				Exceed
19
20	AK	3	240	242	850	4.34%	313	401	102	34	W	36.8	47.2	12.0	4.0	-10.4		33.3	50.8	15.9	-17.5		7.18	0	AK	43.84%	3.34%	3.55	R		3.59	3.59	Alaska
21	AL	9	1,744	1,534	1,045	3.93%	542	457	34	12	S	51.9	43.7	3.3	1.1	8.1	9	43.2	50.1	6.7	-7.0		15.09	1	AL	54.25%	3.02%	8.71	R	9	7.55	7.55	Alabama
22	AR	6	949	884	870	4.15%	494	281	79	16	S	56.8	32.3	9.1	1.8	24.5	6	53.7	36.8	9.5	16.9	6	7.54	0	AR	63.74%	3.19%	3.04	R		3.77	3.77	Arkansas
23	AZ	8	1,489	1,404	1,240	3.60%	602	503	113	22	W	48.5	40.6	9.1	1.8	8.0	8	46.5	44.3	9.2	2.2	8	5.75	0	AZ	54.48%	2.77%	2.03	R		2.88	2.88	Arizona
24	CA	54	11,079	10,019	3,193	2.17%	1821	1060	208	104	W	57.0	33.2	6.5	3.3	23.8	54	51.1	38.2	10.7	12.9	54	10.94	1	CA	63.21%	1.67%	5.93	D		5.47	5.47	California
25	CO	8	1,682	1,511	1,238	3.62%	567	546	85	40	W	45.8	44.1	6.9	3.2	1.7	8	44.4	45.8	9.8	-1.4		3.07	0	CO	50.94%	2.78%	1.37	B	8	1.53	1.53	Colorado
26	CT	8	1,409	1,393	1,470	3.26%	765	520	155	30	E	52.0	35.4	10.5	2.0	16.7	8	52.8	34.7	12.5	18.1	8	-1.47	0	CT	59.53%	2.51%	-0.79	D		-0.74	0.74	Connecticut
27	DC	3	239	186	979	2.30%	832	80	31	36	E	85.0	8.2	3.2	3.7	76.8	3	85.2	9.3	5.5	75.9	3	0.96	0	DC	91.23%	1.77%	-0.21	D		0.48	0.48	DC
28	DE	3	293	271	975	4.01%	519	355	89	12	E	53.2	36.4	9.1	1.2	16.8	3	51.8	36.6	11.6	15.2	3	1.58	0	DE	59.38%	3.08%	1.41	D		0.79	0.79	Delaware
29	FL	25	5,516	5,304	1,870	2.88%	1037	677	146	10	S	55.5	36.2	7.8	0.5	19.3	25	48.0	42.3	9.7	5.7	25	13.55	1	FL	60.50%	2.22%	7.43	B		6.78	6.78	Florida
30	GA	13	2,632	2,299	1,352	3.46%	643	588	109	12	S	47.6	43.5	8.1	0.9	4.1	13	45.8	47.0	7.2	-1.2		5.24	0	GA	52.23%	2.66%	1.72	R	13	2.62	2.62	Georgia
31	HI	4	361	360	858	4.14%	499	266	61	32	W	58.2	31.0	7.1	3.7	27.2	4	56.9	31.6	11.4	25.3	4	1.87	0	HI	65.23%	3.19%	1.23	D		0.93	0.93	Hawaii
32	IA	7	1,291	1,234	1,089	3.85%	509	452	118	10	M	46.7	41.5	10.8	0.9	5.2	7	50.3	39.9	9.8	10.3	7	-5.11	0	IA	52.97%	2.96%	-3.52	B		-2.55	2.55	Iowa
33	ID	4	502	492	961	4.02%	325	501	122	13	W	33.8	52.1	12.7	1.4	-18.3		33.7	52.2	14.2	-18.5		0.22	0	ID	39.35%	3.09%	0.17	R		0.11	0.11	Idaho
34	IL	22	4,779	4,311	1,808	2.90%	1015	606	166	21	M	56.1	33.5	9.2	1.2	22.6	22	54.3	36.8	8.9	17.5	22	5.11	0	IL	62.62%	2.23%	1.82	D		2.56	2.56	Illinois
35	IN	12	2,367	2,136	1,558	3.21%	772	618	154	14	M	49.6	39.7	9.9	0.9	9.9	12	41.6	47.1	11.3	-5.6		15.46	1	IN	55.54%	2.47%	8.00	R	12	7.73	7.73	Indiana
36	KS	6	1,129	1,074	1,396	3.37%	541	742	104	9	M	38.8	53.2	7.4	0.6	-14.4		36.1	54.3	9.6	-18.2		3.81	0	KS	42.17%	2.59%	2.67	R		1.91	1.91	Kansas
37	KY	8	1,535	1,389	1,447	3.35%	637	667	131	12	M	44.0	46.1	9.1	0.8	-2.1		45.8	44.9	9.3	1.0	8	-3.03	0	KY	48.85%	2.58%	-1.82	R		-1.52	1.52	Kentucky
38	LA	9	1,915	1,784	1,501	3.28%	732	654	105	10	S	48.8	43.6	7.0	0.7	5.2	9	52.0	39.9	8.1	12.1	9	-6.87	1	LA	52.81%	2.53%	-3.24	R		-3.44	3.44	Louisiana
39	MA	12	2,569	2,557	2,025	2.63%	1227	560	198	40	E	60.6	27.7	9.8	2.0	32.9	12	61.5	28.1	10.4	33.4	12	-0.44	0	MA	68.66%	2.02%	-0.88	D		-0.22	0.22	Massachusetts
40	MD	10	2,048	1,781	1,428	3.23%	780	435	168	45	E	54.6	30.5	11.8	3.2	24.2	10	54.3	38.3	7.5	16.0	10	8.18	1	MD	64.20%	2.49%	0.37	D		4.09	4.09	Maryland
41	ME	4	626	606	1,000	3.88%	538	308	118	36	E	53.8	30.8	11.8	3.6	23.0	4	51.6	30.8	17.6	20.9	4	2.14	0	ME	63.59%	2.98%	2.18	D		1.07	1.07	Maine
42	MI	18	4,080	3,849	2,038	2.75%	1116	697	201	24	M	54.8	34.2	9.9	1.2	20.6	18	51.7	38.5	9.8	13.2	18	7.35	1	MI	61.56%	2.11%	3.07	B		3.67	3.67	Michigan
43	MN	10	2,259	2,193	1,522	3.21%	771	536	185	30	M	50.7	35.2	12.2	2.0	15.4	10	51.1	35.0	13.9	16.1	10	-0.70	0	MN	58.99%	2.47%	-0.44	B		-0.35	0.35	Minnesota
44	MO	11	2,397	2,158	1,340	3.41%	704	468	142	26	M	52.5	34.9	10.6	1.9	17.6	11	47.5	41.2	11.2	6.3	11	11.31	1	MO	60.07%	2.62%	5.00	B		5.66	5.66	Missouri
45	MS	7	1,069	894	788	4.54%	392	365	29	2	S	49.7	46.3	3.7	0.3	3.4	7	44.1	49.2	6.7	-5.1		8.56	0	MS	51.78%	3.49%	5.67	R	7	4.28	4.28	Mississippi
46	MT	3	437	407	1,163	3.73%	492	467	187	17	W	42.3	40.2	16.1	1.5	2.1	3	41.2	44.1	14.7	-2.9		5.03	0	MT	51.30%	2.87%	1.07	R	3	2.51	2.51	Montana
47	NC	14	2,897	2,516	2,203	2.70%	1129	917	145	12	S	51.2	41.6	6.6	0.5	9.6	14	44.0	48.7	7.2	-4.7		14.31	1	NC	55.18%	2.08%	7.21	B	14	7.16	7.16	North Carolina
48	ND	3	300	266	841	4.39%	372	357	107	5	M	44.2	42.4	12.7	0.6	1.8	3	40.1	46.9	12.9	-6.8		8.59	0	ND	51.03%	3.38%	4.10	R	3	4.30	4.30	North Dakota
49	NE	5	720	677	869	4.28%	329	434	94	12	M	37.9	49.9	10.8	1.4	-12.1		35.0	53.7	11.4	-18.7		6.62	0	NE	43.12%	3.29%	2.91	R		3.31	3.31	Nebraska
50	NH	4	518	499	1,210	3.55%	679	412	100	19	E	56.1	34.0	8.3	1.6	22.1	4	49.3	39.4	11.3	10.0	4	12.12	1	NH	62.24%	2.73%	6.80	B		6.06	6.06	New Hampshire
51	NJ	15	3,251	3,076	1,489	3.12%	883	450	129	27	E	59.3	30.2	8.7	1.8	29.1	15	53.7	35.9	10.4	17.9	15	11.22	1	NJ	66.24%	2.40%	5.58	D		5.61	5.61	New Jersey
52	NM	5	627	556	1,114	3.73%	613	397	75	29	W	55.0	35.6	6.7	2.6	19.4	5	49.2	41.9	9.0	7.3	5	12.07	1	NM	60.69%	2.87%	5.85	B		6.03	6.03	New Mexico
53	NV	4	562	464	1,252	3.60%	562	523	131	36	W	44.9	41.8	10.5	2.9	3.1	4	43.9	42.9	13.2	1.0	4	2.10	0	NV	51.80%	2.77%	0.96	B		1.05	1.05	Nevada
54	NY	33	6,830	6,316	1,880	2.74%	1141	535	161	43	E	60.7	28.5	8.6	2.3	32.2	33	59.5	30.6	9.9	28.9	33	3.37	0	NY	68.08%	2.11%	1.22	D		1.69	1.69	New York
55	OH	21	4,811	4,534	2,000	2.81%	1034	746	208	12	M	51.7	37.3	10.4	0.6	14.4	21	47.4	41.0	11.6	6.4	21	8.04	1	OH	58.09%	2.16%	4.32	R		4.02	4.02	Ohio
56	OK	8	1,379	1,207	1,119	3.80%	454	509	149	7	S	40.6	45.5	13.3	0.6	-4.9		40.5	48.3	11.3	-7.8		2.89	0	OK	47.14%	2.92%	0.12	R		1.45	1.45	Oklahoma
57	OR	7	1,462	1,378	1,696	3.03%	838	566	188	104	W	49.4	33.4	11.1	6.1	16.0	7	47.2	39.1	13.8	8.1	7	7.95	1	OR	59.69%	2.33%	2.26	B		3.97	3.97	Oregon
58	PA	23	4,951	4,506	1,750	2.98%	943	624	161	22	S	53.9	35.7	9.2	1.3	18.2	23	49.2	40.0	10.9	9.2	23	9.03	1	PA	60.18%	2.29%	4.72	B		4.51	4.51	Pennsylvania
59	RI	4	439	390	920	3.78%	569	224	107	20	E	61.8	24.3	11.6	2.2	37.5	4	59.7	26.8	13.5	32.9	4	4.61	0	RI	71.75%	2.91%	2.14	D		2.31	2.31	Rhode Island
60	SC	8	1,479	1,149	1,148	3.76%	534	528	68	18	S	46.5	46.0	5.9	1.6	0.5	8	43.9	49.9	6.3	-6.0		6.56	0	SC	50.28%	2.89%	2.67	R	8	3.28	3.28	South Carolina
61	SD	3	336	324	996	4.04%	457	442	94	3	M	45.9	44.4	9.4	0.3	1.5	3	43.0	46.5	10.5	-3.5		4.97	0	SD	50.83%	3.10%	2.85	R	3	2.48	2.48	South Dakota
62	TN	11	2,133	1,894	1,398	3.36%	758	547	83	10	S	54.2	39.1	5.9	0.7	15.1	11	48.0	45.6	6.4	2.4	11	12.68	1	TN	58.08%	2.59%	6.22	R		6.34	6.34	Tennessee
63	TX	32	6,210	5,612	2,380	2.61%	1100	1101	156	23	S	46.2	46.3	6.6	1.0	0.0		43.8	48.8	7.4	-4.9		4.89	0	TX	49.98%	2.01%	2.39	R		2.44	2.44	Texas
64	UT	5	707	666	830	4.41%	332	391	90	17	W	40.0	47.1	10.8	2.0	-7.1		33.3	54.4	12.3	-21.1		13.96	1	UT	45.92%	3.39%	6.70	R		6.98	6.98	Utah
65	VA	13	2,796	2,417	1,310	3.48%	705	514	86	5	S	53.8	39.2	6.6	0.4	14.6	13	45.2	47.1	7.8	-2.0		16.53	1	VA	57.83%	2.67%	8.67	B	13	8.27	8.27	Virginia
66	VT	3	258	258	946	3.87%	533	253	129	31	E	56.3	26.7	13.6	3.3	29.6	3	53.4	31.1	15.6	22.3	3	7.34	0	VT	67.81%	2.98%	2.99	D		3.67	3.67	Vermont
67	WA	11	2,436	2,254	1,849	2.92%	951	676	157	65	W	51.4	36.6	8.5	3.5	14.9	11	49.8	37.3	12.9	12.5	11	2.33	0	WA	58.45%	2.25%	1.59	B		1.17	1.17	Washington
68	WI	11	2,330	2,196	1,387	3.35%	716	471	151	49	M	51.6	34.0	10.9	3.5	17.7	11	48.8	38.5	12.7	10.3	11	7.33	1	WI	60.32%	2.57%	2.81	B		3.67	3.67	Wisconsin
69	WV	5	715	636	910	4.17%	474	341	93	2	E	52.1	37.5	10.2	0.2	14.6	5	51.5	36.8	11.7	14.8	5	-0.13	0	WV	58.16%	3.21%	0.58	R		-0.07	0.07	West Virginia
70	WY	3	230	212	1,215	3.63%	457	568	177	13	W	37.6	46.7	14.6	1.1	-9.1		36.8	49.8	13.4	-13.0		3.83	0	WY	44.59%	2.79%	0.77	R		1.92	1.92	Wyoming
71
72		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.TrsrffSa9tP
73
74
75			1992			How 1996 Respondents Voted in 1992						1996 Weighted Respondent 1992 shares						1992 Unadjusted Exit Poll
76			Cast	Voted	Sample	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	DNV	Voted	Clinton	Bush	Perot	Other	DNV		Clinton	Bush	Perot/other
77		538	104,655	60,531	66,393	30,314	20,954	8,594	669	5,645	105,013	49,288	32,625	13,119	940	9,327	Votes	48,466	35,028	21,161
78				Unweighted	Mix	45.66%	31.56%	12.94%	1.01%	8.50%	Mix	46.94	31.07	12.49	0.90	8.88	Share	46.31	33.47	20.22
79				Unwtd	Pct	50.08%	34.62%	14.20%	1.11%		95,972	51.36%	33.99%	13.67%	0.98%
80	AK	3	259		860	309	297	157	27	70		35.9	34.5	18.3	3.1	8.1		37.0	35.2	27.8	AK
81	AL	9	1,688		1,005	484	354	66	5	96		48.2	35.2	6.6	0.5	9.6		47.5	40.3	12.2	AL
82	AR	6	951		827	456	250	50	3	68		55.1	30.2	6.0	0.4	8.2		63.3	28.8	7.9	AR
83	AZ	8	1,487		1,179	470	411	189	17	92		39.9	34.9	16.0	1.4	7.8		38.4	32.9	28.7	AZ
84	CA	54	11,132		2,878	1,552	646	354	34	292		53.9	22.4	12.3	1.2	10.1		52.5	24.0	23.5	CA
85	CO	8	1,569		1,205	468	432	186	17	102		43.1	39.8	17.1	1.6	8.5		44.6	30.4	25.0	CO
86	CT	8	1,616		1,392	625	449	203	10	105		48.9	35.2	15.9	0.8	7.5		48.1	29.4	22.6	CT
87	DC	3	228		968	769	51	31	10	107		79.4	5.3	3.2	1.0	11.1		85.3	7.6	7.1	DC
88	DE	3	290		978	447	307	127	5	92		45.7	31.4	13.0	0.5	9.4		42.6	35.3	22.1	DE
89	FL	25	5,314		1,778	815	581	199	15	168		45.8	32.7	11.2	0.8	9.4		45.7	34.0	20.3	FL
90	GA	13	2,321		1,276	545	449	108	8	166		42.7	35.2	8.5	0.6	13.0		45.5	39.7	14.8	GA
91	HI	4	373		869	480	212	97	12	68		55.2	24.4	11.2	1.4	7.8		48.8	34.6	16.6	HI
92	IA	7	1,355		1,122	499	387	152	9	75		44.5	34.5	13.5	0.8	6.7		43.7	37.4	18.9	IA
93	ID	4	482		959	301	391	164	18	85		31.4	40.8	17.1	1.9	8.9		29.7	37.5	32.8	ID
94	IL	22	5,050		1,704	835	517	205	23	124		49.0	30.3	12.0	1.3	7.3		51.9	30.9	17.3	IL
95	IN	12	2,306		1,595	637	499	307	6	146		39.9	31.3	19.2	0.4	9.2		53.1	29.7	17.2	IN
96	KS	6	1,157		1,330	454	553	219	9	95		34.1	41.6	16.5	0.7	7.1		34.3	36.7	29.0	KS
97	KY	8	1,493		1,388	568	552	146	9	113		40.9	39.8	10.5	0.6	8.1		44.7	41.9	13.3	KY
98	LA	9	1,790		1,199	633	346	105	16	99		52.8	28.9	8.8	1.3	8.3		43.7	41.2	15.1	LA
99	MA	12	2,774		1,765	960	446	225	25	109		54.4	25.3	12.7	1.4	6.2		52.6	24.4	23.0	MA
100	MD	10	1,985		1,349	603	411	229	20	86		44.7	30.5	17.0	1.5	6.4		55.4	29.2	15.4	MD
101	ME	4	679		1,000	538	308	118	36			53.8	30.8	11.8	3.6	0.0		41.1	29.0	29.9	ME
102	MI	18	4,275		1,863	896	531	264	14	158		48.1	28.5	14.2	0.8	8.5		46.8	30.4	22.8	MI
103	MN	10	2,348		1,394	673	394	163	6	158		48.3	28.3	11.7	0.4	11.3		45.5	29.6	24.9	MN
104	MO	11	2,391		1,288	611	375	202	10	90		47.4	29.1	15.7	0.8	7.0		50.6	26.6	22.9	MO
105	MS	7	982		773	380	308	36	3	46		49.2	39.8	4.7	0.4	6.0		53.7	37.0	9.4	MS
106	MT	3	411		1,125	443	357	210	17	98		39.4	31.7	18.7	1.5	8.7		37.6	37.2	25.2	MT
107	NC	14	2,612		2,049	966	697	189	9	188		47.1	34.0	9.2	0.4	9.2		47.5	38.6	13.9	NC
108	ND	3	308		840	324	314	125	3	74		38.6	37.4	14.9	0.4	8.8		37.9	39.6	22.6	ND
109	NE	5	739		808	282	322	116	7	81		34.9	39.9	14.4	0.9	10.0		28.8	44.3	26.9	NE
110	NH	4	537		1,128	507	369	153	10	89		44.9	32.7	13.6	0.9	7.9		43.1	32.4	24.5	NH
111	NJ	15	3,344		1,404	683	394	163	6	158		48.6	28.1	11.6	0.4	11.3		47.5	33.8	18.7	NJ
112	NM	5	570		1,048	500	309	113	23	103		47.7	29.5	10.8	2.2	9.8		51.2	31.2	17.6	NM
113	NV	4	506		1,243	482	428	224	25	84		38.8	34.4	18.0	2.0	6.8		37.3	35.4	27.3	NV
114	NY	33	6,927		1,755	906	439	230	11	169		51.6	25.0	13.1	0.6	9.6		51.3	29.2	19.5	NY
115	OH	21	4,940		1,915	859	627	273	11	145		44.9	32.7	14.3	0.6	7.6		46.7	31.0	22.3	OH
116	OK	8	1,390		1,070	393	395	190	11	81		36.7	36.9	17.8	1.0	7.6		38.0	37.0	25.0	OK
117	OR	7	1,463		1,650	754	453	284	21	138		45.7	27.5	17.2	1.3	8.4		47.6	22.8	29.6	OR
118	PA	23	4,960		1,595	807	470	162	14	142		50.6	29.5	10.2	0.9	8.9		46.1	31.8	22.2	PA
119	RI	4	453		912	505	211	131	5	60		55.4	23.1	14.4	0.5	6.6		55.7	24.3	20.0	RI
120	SC	8	1,203		1,039	438	446	74	5	76		42.2	42.9	7.1	0.5	7.3		43.5	43.9	12.6	SC
121	SD	3	336		936	385	330	138	4	79		41.1	35.3	14.7	0.4	8.4		37.3	42.1	20.6	SD
122	TN	11	1,983		1,275	612	425	97	11	130		48.0	33.3	7.6	0.9	10.2		57.3	33.3	9.4	TN
123	TX	32	6,154		2,289	883	886	283	11	226		38.6	38.7	12.4	0.5	9.9		42.6	32.4	25.0	TX
124	UT	5	744		824	263	311	152	29	69		31.9	37.7	18.4	3.5	8.4		25.4	39.4	35.2	UT
125	VA	13	2,559		1,173	555	413	107	3	95		47.3	35.2	9.1	0.3	8.1		47.8	37.3	14.8	VA
126	VT	3	290		940	511	226	125	7	71		54.4	24.0	13.3	0.7	7.6		49.8	26.8	23.4	VT
127	WA	11	2,288		1,812	813	561	258	13	167		44.9	31.0	14.2	0.7	9.2		46.9	28.1	25.0	WA
128	WI	11	2,531		1,329	581	405	178	20	145		43.7	30.5	13.4	1.5	10.9		43.5	32.8	23.7	WI
129	WV	5	684		907	472	274	97	4	60		52.0	30.2	10.7	0.4	6.6		54.1	32.4	13.5	WV
130	WY	3	200		1,166	382	435	220	22	107		32.8	37.3	18.9	1.9	9.2		36.0	39.3	24.7	WY
131
132
133
134
135	Alabama	662165	43%	769044	50%	92,149	6%	0	9	0	9	9
136	Alaska	80380	33	122746	51	26,333	11	0	3	0	3	3
137	Arizona	653288	46	622073	44	112,072	8	8	0	8	0	8
138	Arkansas	475171	54	325416	37	69,884	8	6	0	6	0	6
139	California	5119835	51	3828380	38	697,847	7	54	0	54	0	54
140	Colorado	671152	44	691848	46	99629	7.00%	0.00%	8.00%	0	8	8
141	Connecticut	735740	52	483109	35	139523	10.00%	8.00%	0.00%	8	0	8
142	Delaware	140355	52	99062	37	28719	11.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3	0	3
143	D.C.	158220	85	17339	9	3611	2.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3	0	3
144	Florida	2546870	48	2244536	42	483870	9.00%	25.00%	0.00%	25	0	25
145	Georgia	1053849	46	1080843	47	146337	6.00%	0.00%	13.00%	0	13	13
146	Hawaii	205012	57	113943	32	27358	7.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4	0	4
147	Idaho	165443	34	256595	52	62518	13.00%	0.00%	4.00%	0	4	4
148	Illinois	2341744	54	1587021	37	346408	8.00%	22.00%	0.00%	22	0	22
149	Indiana	887424	42	1006693	47	224299	10.00%	0.00%	12.00%	0	12	12
150	Iowa	620258	50	492644	40	105159	8.00%	7.00%	0.00%	7	0	7
151	Kansas	387659	36	583245	54	92639	9.00%	0.00%	6.00%	0	6	6
152	Kentucky	636614	46	623283	45	120396	9.00%	8.00%	0.00%	8	0	8
153	Louisiana	927837	52	712586	40	123293	7.00%	9.00%	0.00%	9	0	9
154	Maine	312788	52	186378	31	85970	14.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4	0	4
155	Maryland	966207	54	681530	38	115812	6.00%	10.00%	0.00%	10	0	10
156	Massachusetts	1571763	61	718107	28	227217	9.00%	12.00%	0.00%	12	0	12
157	Michigan	1989653	52	1481212	38	336670	9.00%	18.00%	0.00%	18	0	18
158	Minnesota	1120438	51	766476	35	257704	12.00%	10.00%	0.00%	10	0	10
159	Mississippi	394022	44	439838	49	52222	6.00%	0.00%	7.00%	0	7	7
160	Missouri	1025935	47	890016	41	217188	10.00%	11.00%	0.00%	11	0	11
161	Montana	167922	41	179652	44	55229	13.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0	3	3
162	Nebraska	236761	35	363467	54	71278	10.00%	0.00%	5.00%	0	5	5
163	Nevada	203974	44	199244	43	43986	9.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4	0	4
164	New Hampshire	246214	49	196532	39	48390	10.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4	0	4
165	New Jersey	1652329	54	1103078	36	262134	8.00%	15.00%	0.00%	15	0	15
166	New Mexico	273495	49	232751	42	32257	6.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5	0	5
167	New York	3756177	59	1933492	31	503458	8.00%	33.00%	0.00%	33	0	33
168	North Carolina	1107849	44	1225938	49	168059	7.00%	0.00%	14.00%	0	14	14
169	North Dakota	106905	40	125050	47	32515	12.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0	3	3
170	Ohio	2148222	47	1859883	40	483207	11.00%	21.00%	0.00%	21	0	21
171	Oklahoma	488105	40	582315	48	130788	11.00%	0.00%	8.00%	0	8	8
172	Oregon	649641	47	538152	39	121221	9.00%	7.00%	0.00%	7	0	7
173	Pennsylvania	2215819	49	1801169	40	430984	10.00%	23.00%	0.00%	23	0	23
174	Rhode Island	233050	60	104683	27	43723	11.00%	4.00%	0.00%	4	0	4
175	South Carolina	506283	44	573458	50	64386	5.00%	0.00%	8.00%	0	8	8
176	South Dakota	139333	43	150543	46	31250	10.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0	3	3
177	Tennessee	909146	48	863530	46	105918	5.00%	11.00%	0.00%	11	0	11
178	Texas	2459683	44	2736167	49	378537	7.00%	0.00%	32.00%	0	32	32
179	Utah	221633	33	361911	54	66461	10.00%	0.00%	5.00%	0	5	5
180	Vermont	137894	53	80352	31	31024	12.00%	3.00%	0.00%	3	0	3
181	Virginia	1091060	45	1138350	47	159861	7.00%	0.00%	13.00%	0	13	13
182	Washington	1123323	50	840712	37	201003	9.00%	11.00%	0.00%	11	0	11
183	West Virginia	327812	51	233946	37	71639	11.00%	5.00%	0.00%	5	0	5
184	Wisconsin	1071971	49	845029	39	227339	10.00%	11.00%	0.00%	11	0	11
185	Wyoming	77934	37	105388	50	25928	12.00%	0.00%	3.00%	0	3	3
186	Total	47402357	49%	39198755	41%	8085402	8.00%	379.00%	159.00%	379	159	538


1
2			2008 Unadjusted and adjusted National Exit Poll Demographics
3	NEP Code
4	24	Voted	Obama	McCain	Other
5		17836	10873	6641	322
6		100%	60.96%	37.23%	1.81%
7		Adjusted to	52.9%	46.5%	1.6%
8		Change	-8.06%	9.27%	-0.21%
9
10	27	House	Dem	Rep	Other
11		16529	10218	5965	346
12		100%	61.82%	36.09%	2.09%
13						GENDER	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
14	29	Gender	Male	Female		Male	47.00%	54.50%	44.00%	1.50%
15		17937	7706	10231		Female	53.00%	61.00%	37.50%	1.50%
16		100%	42.96%	57.04%
17		Adjusted to	47%	53%		Share	100%	57.95%	40.56%	1.50%
18		Change	4.04%	-4.04%		Votes(mil)	131.46	76.18	53.31	1.97
19
20	30	Race	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other
21		17672	12675	2534	1542	411	510
22		100%	71.72%	14.34%	8.73%	2.33%	2.89%
23		Adjusted to	74%	13%	9%	2%	3%
24		Change	2.28%	-1.34%	0.27%	-0.33%	0.11%
25
26	31	Age	18-25	25-30	30-40	40-45	45-50	50-60	60-65	65-75	75+
27		17874	1984	1678	3211	1878	2062	3583	1263	1432	783
28		100%	11.10%	9.39%	17.96%	10.51%	11.54%	20.05%	7.07%	8.01%	4.38%
29		Adjusted to	10%	8%	18%	21%		27%		16%
30		Change	-1.10%	-1.39%	0.04%	1.04%		0.11%		-3.61%
31
32	32	Party-ID	Dem	Rep	Ind	Other	Party-ID	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
33		17774	8096	4851	3995	832	Dem	45.00%	91.00%	8.00%	1.00%
34		100%	45.55%	27.29%	22.48%	4.68%	Rep	27.00%	17.00%	82.00%	1.00%
35		Adjusted to	39%	32%	29%		Other	28.00%	55.00%	42.00%	3.00%
36			-6.55%	4.71%	6.52%
37									60.94%	37.50%	1.56%
38	33	Philosophy	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
39		16903	4344	7748	4811
40		100%	25.70%	45.84%	28.46%
41		Adjusted to	22%	44%	34%
42			-3.70%	-1.84%	5.54%
43
44	34	Income	Under 15k	15-30	30-50	50-75	75-100	100-150	150-200	200+
45		16289	1190	1986	3096	3427	2387	2227	957	1019
46		100%	7.31%	12.19%	19.01%	21.04%	14.65%	13.67%	5.88%	6.26%
47		Adjusted to	6%	12%	19%	21%	15%	14%	6%	6%
48			-1.31%	-0.19%	-0.01%	-0.04%	0.35%	0.33%	0.12%	-0.26%
49
50	35	Education	No HS	HS	Some College	College Grad	Post Grad
51		17748	706	3467	5538	4819	3218
52		100%	3.98%	19.53%	31.20%	27.15%	18.13%
53		Adjusted to	4%	20%	31%	28%	17%
54			0.02%	0.47%	-0.20%	0.85%	-1.13%
55
56	67	Married	Yes	No
57		4344	2617	1727
58		100%	60.24%	39.76%
59		Adjusted to	66%	34%
60			5.76%	-5.76%
61
62	71	New Voter	Yes	No
63		8586	1063	7523
64		100%	12.38%	87.62%
65		Adjusted to	11%	89%
66			-1.38%	1.38%
67							2004	Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
68	86	Veteran	Yes	No			DNV	-	17.66	13.43%	71%	27%	2%
69		4192	538	3654			Kerry	50.18%	57.11	43.44%	89%	8.92%	2.08%
70		100%	12.83%	87.17%			Bush	44.62%	50.78	38.63%	17%	82%	1%
71		Adjusted to	15%	85%			Other	5.20%	5.92	4.5%	72%	26%	2%
72			2.17%	-2.17%
73								Total	131.46	100%	58.00%	40.35%	1.65%
74	87	Voted04	Kerry	Bush	Other	DNV		Votes		131.463	76.25	53.04	2.17
75		4178	1815	1614	188	561
76		100%	43.44%	38.63%	4.50%	13.43%
77		3617	1815	1614	188		2004	Implied	Votes	Mix	Obama	McCain	Other
78		100%	50.18%	44.62%	5.20%		DNV	-	17.09	13%	71%	27%	2%
79		Adjusted to	37%	46%	4%	13%	Kerry	42.53%	48.64	37%	89%	9%	2%
80		Change	-6.44%	7.37%	-0.50%	-0.43%	Bush	52.87%	60.47	46%	17%	82%	1%
81		100%	43%	53%	4%		Other	4.60%	5.26	4%	72%	26%	2%
82
83								Total	131.46	100%	52.87%	45.60%	1.54%
84								Votes		131.46	69.50	59.95	2.02
85	90	Bush Approval	Yes	No
86		4202	905	3297
87		100%	21.54%	78.46%
88		Adjusted to	28%	72%
89		Change	6.46%	-6.46%
90
91	161	Vote Decided	Last 3 days	October	Sept	Before
92		13268	1334	2256	1835	7843
93		100%	10.05%	17.00%	13.83%	59.11%
94		Adjusted to	10%	15%	14%	60%
95		Change	-0.05%	-2.00%	0.17%	0.89%
96
97	177	Size of Place	Urban	Suburban	Rural
98		18018	5443	9010	3565
99		100%	30.21%	50.01%	19.79%
100		Adjusted to	30%	49%	21%
101		Change	-0.21%	-1.01%	1.21%
102
103	181	Region	East	Midwest	South	West
104		18018	5360	4813	4549	3296
105		100%	29.75%	26.71%	25.25%	18.29%
106		Adjusted to	21%	24%	32%	23%
107		Change	-8.75%	-2.71%	6.75%	4.71%
108
109
110
111
112
113
114	National Exit Poll
115	17,836 Respondents
116
117	1 of 7
118
119	Vote by Sex
120	Total
121	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
122	Male (47%)
123	49%
124	48%
125	3%
126
127
128	Female (53%)
129	56%
130	43%
131	1%
132
133
134	Vote by Sex and Race
135	Total
136	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
137	White Men (36%)
138	41%
139	57%
140	2%
141
142
143	White Women (39%)
144	46%
145	53%
146	1%
147
148
149	Black Men (5%)
150	95%
151	5%
152	N/A
153
154
155	Black Women (7%)
156	96%
157	3%
158	1%
159
160
161	Latino Men (4%)
162	64%
163	33%
164	3%
165
166
167	Latino Women (5%)
168	68%
169	30%
170	2%
171
172
173	All Other Races (5%)
174	64%
175	32%
176	4%
177
178
179	Vote by Race
180	Total
181	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
182	White (74%)
183	43%
184	55%
185	2%
186
187
188	African-American (13%)
189	95%
190	4%
191	1%
192
193
194	Latino (9%)
195	67%
196	31%
197	2%
198
199
200	Asian (2%)
201	62%
202	35%
203	3%
204
205
206	Other (3%)
207	66%
208	31%
209	3%
210
211
212	Vote by Age
213	Total
214	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
215	18-29 (18%)
216	66%
217	32%
218	2%
219
220
221	30-44 (29%)
222	52%
223	46%
224	2%
225
226
227	45-64 (37%)
228	50%
229	49%
230	1%
231
232
233	65 and Older (16%)
234	45%
235	53%
236	2%
237
238
239	Vote by Age
240	Total
241	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
242	18-24 (10%)
243	66%
244	32%
245	2%
246
247
248	25-29 (8%)
249	66%
250	31%
251	3%
252
253
254	30-39 (18%)
255	54%
256	44%
257	2%
258
259
260	40-49 (21%)
261	49%
262	49%
263	2%
264
265
266	50-64 (27%)
267	50%
268	49%
269	1%
270
271
272	65 or Over (16%)
273	45%
274	53%
275	2%
276
277
278	Vote by Age and Race
279	Total
280	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
281	White 18-29 (11%)
282	54%
283	44%
284	2%
285
286
287	White 30-44 (20%)
288	41%
289	57%
290	2%
291
292
293	White 45-64 (30%)
294	42%
295	56%
296	2%
297
298
299	White 65 and Older (13%)
300	40%
301	58%
302	2%
303
304
305	Black 18-29 (3%)
306	95%
307	4%
308	1%
309
310
311	Black 30-44 (4%)
312	96%
313	4%
314	N/A
315
316
317	Black 45-64 (4%)
318	96%
319	3%
320	1%
321
322
323	Black 65 and Older (1%)
324	94%
325	6%
326	N/A
327
328
329	Latino 18-29 (3%)
330	76%
331	19%
332	5%
333
334
335	Latino 30-44 (3%)
336	63%
337	36%
338	1%
339
340
341	Latino 45-64 (2%)
342	58%
343	40%
344	2%
345
346
347	Latino 65 and Older (1%)
348	68%
349	30%
350	2%
351
352
353	All Others (5%)
354	64%
355	33%
356	3%
357
358
359	Vote by Income
360	Total
361	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
362	Under $15,000 (6%)
363	73%
364	25%
365	2%
366
367
368	$15-30,000 (12%)
369	60%
370	37%
371	3%
372
373
374	$30-50,000 (19%)
375	55%
376	43%
377	2%
378
379
380	$50-75,000 (21%)
381	48%
382	49%
383	3%
384
385
386	$75-100,000 (15%)
387	51%
388	48%
389	1%
390
391
392	$100-150,000 (14%)
393	48%
394	51%
395	1%
396
397
398	$150-200,000 (6%)
399	48%
400	50%
401	2%
402
403
404	$200,000 or More (6%)
405	52%
406	46%
407	2%
408
409
410	Vote by Income
411	Total
412	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
413	Less Than $50K (38%)
414	60%
415	38%
416	2%
417
418
419	$50K or More (62%)
420	49%
421	49%
422	2%
423
424
425	Vote by Income
426	Total
427	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
428	Less Than $100K (74%)
429	55%
430	43%
431	2%
432
433
434	$100K or More (26%)
435	49%
436	49%
437	2%
438
439
440	Vote by Income
441	Total
442	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
443	Less Than $50,000 (38%)
444	60%
445	38%
446	2%
447
448
449	$50-100,000 (36%)
450	49%
451	49%
452	2%
453
454
455	$100,000 or More (26%)
456	49%
457	49%
458	2%
459
460
461	Vote by Income and Race
462	Total
463	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
464	Whites Under $50,000 (25%)
465	47%
466	51%
467	2%
468
469
470	Whites Over $50,000 (49%)
471	43%
472	56%
473	1%
474
475
476	Non-Whites Under $50,000 (13%)
477	86%
478	13%
479	1%
480
481
482	Non-Whites Over $50,000 (13%)
483	75%
484	22%
485	3%
486
487
488	Vote by Education
489	Total
490	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
491	No High School (4%)
492	63%
493	35%
494	2%
495
496
497	H.S. Graduate (20%)
498	52%
499	46%
500	2%
501
502
503	Some College (31%)
504	51%
505	47%
506	2%
507
508
509	College Graduate (28%)
510	50%
511	48%
512	2%
513
514
515	Postgraduate (17%)
516	58%
517	40%
518	2%
519
520
521	Did You Attend College?
522	Total
523	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
524	Yes (76%)
525	52%
526	46%
527	2%
528
529
530	No (24%)
531	54%
532	44%
533	2%
534
535
536	Are You a College Graduate?
537	Total
538	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
539	Yes (44%)
540	53%
541	45%
542	2%
543
544
545	No (56%)
546	53%
547	46%
548	1%
549
550
551	Vote by Education and Race
552	Total
553	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
554	White College Graduates (35%)
555	47%
556	51%
557	2%
558
559
560	Whites - No College (39%)
561	40%
562	58%
563	2%
564
565
566	Non-White College Grads (9%)
567	75%
568	22%
569	3%
570
571
572	Non-White - No College (16%)
573	83%
574	16%
575	1%
576
577
578	Vote by Party ID
579	Total
580	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
581	Democrat (39%)
582	89%
583	10%
584	1%
585
586
587	Republican (32%)
588	9%
589	90%
590	1%
591
592
593	Independent (29%)
594	52%
595	44%
596	4%
597
598
599	Vote by Race and Party ID
600	Total
601	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
602	White Democrats (23%)
603	85%
604	14%
605	1%
606
607
608	White Independents (23%)
609	47%
610	49%
611	4%
612
613
614	White Republicans (29%)
615	8%
616	91%
617	1%
618
619
620	All Others (26%)
621	80%
622	18%
623	2%
624
625
626	Vote by Ideology
627	Total
628	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
629	Liberal (22%)
630	89%
631	10%
632	1%
633
634
635	Moderate (44%)
636	60%
637	39%
638	1%
639
640
641	Conservative (34%)
642	20%
643	78%
644	2%
645
646
647	Is This the First Year You Have Ever Voted?
648	Total
649	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
650	Yes (11%)
651	69%
652	30%
653	1%
654
655
656	No (89%)
657	50%
658	48%
659	2%
660
661
662	When Did You Decide Who To Vote For?
663	Total
664	Obama McCain Other/No Answer
665	Today (4%)
666	50%
667	45%
668	5%
669
670
671	Last Three Days (3%)
672	47%
673	52%
674	1%
675
676
677	Last Week (3%)
678	48%
679	50%
680	2%
681
682
683	In October (15%)
684	54%
685	43%
686	3%
687
688
689	In September (14%)
690	54%
691	45%
692	1%
693
694
695	Before That (60%)
696	52%
697	47%
698	1%
699
700
701
702	1 of 7
703
704	Note
705	• All Times Eastern Standard
706	• CNN will broadcast a projected winner only after an extensive review of data from a number of sources. Details about CNN's projection process
707	• Poll closing times by state and time zone
708	• "Party change" denotes a race where the 2008 projected winner is from a different party than the previous winner or incumbent.
709	• Glossary of Election Night terms
710	• Not all candidates are listed
711	• This site is designed for Flash; download the latest version of the Flash player here.
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1						2004 Exit Poll Discepancy Probability Analysis
2
3				Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Bush	Bush	Approv	Margin	Margin	Margin			Bush	Discrep	Margin	Margin		Discrep	Probability
4		State	Cast	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Approv	/Record	Unadj	WPD	Diff	MoE	StdD	Discrep	/Std	ExitP	Record	Diff	/MoE	Discrep	1 in
5		Avg	126528	49.43	46.51	49.07	52.28	51.41	0.98	6.14	6.21	0.08	3.43	1.75	3.20	1.83	-0.36	5.77	6.13	0.93	3.33%
6		Wtd	-	50.97	48.27	47.71	50.85	50.36	0.99	5.96	7.40	1.44	3.11	1.59	3.10	1.95	-3.26	2.58	5.84	1.00	2.41%
7
8	1	SC	1899	47.8	40.9	50.6	58.0	53.9	0.93	14.2	9.8	-4.4	3.0	1.5	7.4	4.8	2.9	17.1	14.2	2.45	0.00%	4,318,734
9	2	VT	316	68.8	58.9	27.8	38.8	29.7	0.77	20.9	15.2	-5.7	4.4	2.2	11.0	4.9	-41.0	-20.1	20.9	2.52	0.00%	4,233,724
10	3	AK	293	44.7	35.5	51.9	61.1	56.4	0.92	18.4	9.4	-9.0	3.7	1.9	9.2	4.9	7.2	25.6	18.4	2.48	0.00%	1,291,701
11	4	NJ	3693	59.1	52.9	38.6	46.2	40.6	0.88	13.9	9.1	-4.8	3.2	1.6	7.6	4.7	-20.6	-6.7	13.9	2.39	0.00%	956,812
12	5	NH	677	56.7	50.2	42.0	48.9	44.6	0.91	13.5	14.0	0.5	2.9	1.5	6.9	4.7	-14.8	-1.3	13.5	2.38	0.00%	466,608
13	6	DE	385	63.3	53.3	36.0	45.8	38.1	0.83	19.8	16.0	-3.8	4.4	2.3	9.8	4.3	-27.3	-7.5	19.8	2.21	0.00%	98,201
14	7	VA	3134	52.7	45.5	46.8	53.7	50.1	0.93	14.1	8.7	-5.4	3.4	1.7	6.9	4.0	-5.9	8.2	14.1	2.05	0.00%	40,550
15	8	PA	5845	56.6	50.9	42.9	48.4	46.4	0.96	11.2	8.4	-2.8	2.7	1.4	5.5	3.9	-13.7	-2.5	11.2	2.00	0.00%	23,405
16	9	NM	837	53.9	49.0	44.3	49.8	49.0	0.98	10.4	8.0	-2.4	2.8	1.4	5.5	3.8	-9.6	0.8	10.4	1.94	0.00%	23,405
17	10	CT	1524	62.5	54.3	36.0	43.9	40.3	0.92	16.1	16.0	-0.1	4.2	2.1	7.9	3.7	-26.5	-10.4	16.1	1.90	0.01%	11,861
18	11	MN	2887	56.3	51.1	42.4	47.6	44.4	0.93	10.4	9.2	-1.2	2.7	1.4	5.2	3.8	-13.9	-3.5	10.4	1.94	0.01%	9,815
19	12	OH	5485	54.1	48.7	45.7	50.8	49.0	0.96	10.4	10.6	0.2	2.8	1.4	5.1	3.5	-8.3	2.1	10.4	1.79	0.01%	7,418
20	13	FL	7372	50.8	47.1	48.0	52.1	51.2	0.98	7.8	7.8	0.0	2.4	1.2	4.1	3.3	-2.8	5.0	7.8	1.70	0.03%	3,155
21	14	MO	2815	50.4	46.1	48.7	53.3	50.4	0.95	8.9	5.8	-3.1	2.7	1.4	4.6	3.4	-1.7	7.2	8.9	1.73	0.05%	1,966
22	15	NV	871	52.4	47.9	46.5	50.5	49.6	0.98	8.6	9.9	1.3	2.7	1.4	4.0	2.9	-6.0	2.6	8.6	1.48	0.21%	468
23	16	WA	2851	56.5	52.8	41.9	45.6	41.9	0.92	7.4	8.0	0.6	2.7	1.4	3.7	2.7	-14.6	-7.2	7.4	1.38	0.41%	243
24	17	HI	433	61.3	54.0	38.7	45.3	44.0	0.97	13.8	8.2	-5.6	5.0	2.5	6.6	2.6	-22.5	-8.7	13.8	1.32	0.41%	241
25	18	MS	1263	45.6	39.8	53.7	59.4	56.0	0.94	11.5	18.4	6.9	4.5	2.3	5.7	2.5	8.1	19.6	11.5	1.27	0.66%	151
26	19	NY	7698	62.1	58.4	36.2	40.1	39.4	0.98	7.6	12.2	4.6	3.2	1.6	3.9	2.4	-25.9	-18.3	7.6	1.22	0.74%	135
27	20	TX	7950	41.5	38.2	57.5	61.1	60.9	1.00	6.9	7.6	0.7	3.0	1.5	3.6	2.4	16.0	22.9	6.9	1.22	0.82%	122
28	21	MI	4818	53.9	51.2	44.7	47.8	47.7	1.00	5.7	6.4	0.7	2.5	1.3	3.1	2.4	-9.1	-3.4	5.7	1.22	0.85%	117
29	22	UT	1022	31.5	26.0	66.3	71.5	67.3	0.94	10.7	4.2	-6.5	4.3	2.2	5.2	2.4	34.8	45.5	10.7	1.21	0.90%	111
30	23	NC	3639	46.1	43.6	53.0	56.0	54.5	0.97	5.5	11.8	6.3	2.7	1.4	3.0	2.1	6.9	12.4	5.5	1.09	1.61%	62
31	24	WI	3010	52.0	49.7	46.8	49.3	51.3	1.04	4.8	4.8	0.0	2.6	1.3	2.5	1.9	-5.2	-0.4	4.8	0.95	2.72%	37
32	25	CO	2097	49.3	47.0	49.2	51.7	51.2	0.99	4.8	6.2	1.4	2.5	1.3	2.5	2.0	-0.1	4.7	4.8	1.00	2.72%	37
33	26	RI	467	63.3	59.4	34.5	38.7	39.4	1.02	8.1	5.4	-2.7	4.3	2.2	4.2	1.9	-28.8	-20.7	8.1	0.98	2.81%	36
34	27	OK	1541	36.3	34.4	62.6	65.6	64.2	0.98	4.8	-1.2	-6.0	3.1	1.6	3.0	1.9	26.4	31.2	4.8	0.96	3.04%	33
35	28	MA	3085	64.7	61.9	33.1	36.8	33.9	0.92	6.5	7.8	1.3	4.0	2.1	3.7	1.8	-31.6	-25.1	6.5	0.92	3.90%	26
36	29	KY	1930	42.4	39.7	56.1	59.6	57.1	0.96	6.2	0.4	-5.8	3.9	2.0	3.5	1.8	13.7	19.9	6.2	0.90	4.01%	25
37	30	ND	330	31.4	35.5	66.8	62.9	66.1	1.05	-8.0	-1.7	6.3	4.5	2.3	-3.9	-1.7	35.4	27.4	-8.0	-0.86	4.50%	22
38	31	SD	378	35.1	38.4	62.6	59.9	64.1	1.07	-6.0	-5.1	0.9	3.1	1.6	-2.7	-1.7	27.5	21.5	-6.0	-0.88	4.58%	22
39	32	ME	736	55.4	53.6	42.3	44.6	43.7	0.98	4.1	4.0	-0.1	2.8	1.4	2.3	1.6	-13.1	-9.0	4.1	0.80	5.02%	20
40	33	NE	793	36.4	32.7	62.4	65.9	62.1	0.94	7.2	8.7	1.5	4.4	2.2	3.5	1.6	26.0	33.2	7.2	0.79	5.58%	18
41	34	AL	2851	39.7	36.8	59.1	62.5	59.6	0.95	6.3	10.0	3.7	4.6	2.3	3.4	1.4	19.4	25.7	6.3	0.74	6.97%	14
42	35	AZ	2239	46.3	44.4	52.8	54.9	55.8	1.02	3.9	0.3	-3.6	2.9	1.5	2.1	1.4	6.6	10.5	3.9	0.72	8.08%	12
43	36	LA	2067	44.2	42.2	54.5	56.7	56.9	1.00	4.2	2.6	-1.6	3.1	1.6	2.2	1.4	10.3	14.5	4.2	0.70	8.46%	12
44	37	KS	1188	34.2	36.6	64.6	62.0	64.5	1.04	-5.0	1.1	6.1	4.7	2.4	-2.6	-1.1	30.4	25.4	-5.0	-0.56	13.93%	7
45	38	MT	482	39.3	38.6	56.7	59.1	59.4	1.01	3.1	-2.6	-5.7	5.0	2.5	2.4	0.9	17.4	20.5	3.1	0.48	16.85%	6
46	39	DC	270	90.7	89.2	8.1	9.3	11.8	1.27	2.7	2.8	0.1	2.5	1.3	1.2	1.0	-82.6	-79.9	2.7	0.50	17.80%	6
47	40	ID	585	27.8	30.3	70.3	68.4	71.4	1.04	-4.3	4.0	8.3	4.1	2.1	-1.9	-0.9	42.4	38.1	-4.3	-0.47	18.28%	5
48	41	IL	5672	56.0	54.8	43.3	44.5	47.8	1.07	2.4	3.6	1.2	3.3	1.7	1.2	0.7	-12.7	-10.3	2.4	0.36	24.01%	4
49	42	IA	1522	49.3	49.2	49.0	49.9	52.6	1.05	1.0	3.0	2.0	2.5	1.3	0.9	0.7	-0.3	0.7	1.0	0.35	24.44%	4
50	43	WV	798	41.7	43.2	56.9	56.1	58.8	1.05	-2.3	-5.9	-3.6	3.0	1.5	-0.8	-0.5	15.2	12.9	-2.3	-0.26	29.69%	3
51	44	MD	2413	54.8	55.9	43.8	42.9	44.6	1.04	-1.9	7.3	9.2	3.9	2.0	-0.9	-0.4	-11.1	-13.0	-1.9	-0.22	32.64%	3
52	45	OR	1924	52.2	51.3	46.3	47.2	47.0	1.00	1.8	1.8	0.0	4.0	2.1	0.9	0.4	-5.9	-4.1	1.8	0.22	33.41%	3
53	46	GA	3332	41.8	41.4	57.4	58.0	58.4	1.01	1.0	1.3	0.3	3.1	1.6	0.6	0.4	15.6	16.6	1.0	0.19	35.38%	3
54	47	WY	247	28.9	29.1	68.2	68.9	71.1	1.03	0.5	7.0	6.5	4.2	2.2	0.7	0.3	39.3	39.8	0.5	0.17	37.52%	3
55	48	AR	1140	44.4	44.5	54.8	54.3	55.9	1.03	-0.6	1.3	1.9	3.3	1.7	-0.5	-0.3	10.4	9.8	-0.6	-0.14	38.43%	3
56	49	TN	2319	41.6	42.5	56.4	56.8	57.4	1.01	-0.5	1.4	1.9	3.0	1.5	0.4	0.3	14.8	14.3	-0.5	0.15	39.49%	3
57	50	IN	2598	39.5	39.3	59.5	59.9	62.4	1.04	0.6	2.2	1.6	4.1	2.1	0.4	0.2	20.0	20.6	0.6	0.10	42.45%	2
58	51	CA	12807	53.9	54.3	44.2	44.4	47.9	1.08	-0.2	11.6	11.8	2.6	1.3	0.2	0.2	-9.7	-9.9	-0.2	0.09	43.89%	2


1
2			1988-2008 Unadjusted State Exit Polls: Margin of Error Probability Sensitivity Analysis
3
4				Exit polls (Roper website)					274	(note: only 24 exit polls in 1988)
5				Base case cluster factor					30%
6				Exit Poll MoE (average)					3.60%
7				Summary					Number	Pct	Probability
8				Exit Polls red-shifting to GOP					232	84.67%	2.07E-33
9				Exit Polls exceeding MoE					135	49.27%	2.61E-98
10				Exit Polls exceeding MoE: R/S to GOP					131	97.04%
11
12						Exit Polls Exceeding MoE (including cluster effect)
13		Cluster Factor	Avg MoE	Exit Polls > MoE	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008		Prob
14		0%	2.77%	172	13	35	29	23	32	40		1.05E-123
15		10%	3.05%	159	13	33	26	20	28	39		1.53E-108
16		20%	3.32%	151	13	31	23	19	26	39		4.12E-100
17		30%	3.60%	135	12	27	19	17	23	37		1.20E-83
18		40%	3.88%	128	12	27	18	15	22	34		9.21E-77
19		50%	4.16%	118	11	23	17	12	21	34		3.25E-67
20		60%	4.43%	112	10	22	17	11	19	33		1.17E-61
21		70%	4.71%	105	9	21	16	10	17	32		2.35E-55
22		80%	4.99%	93	9	18	14	8	16	28		5.03E-45
23		90%	5.26%	87	9	17	13	8	15	25		4.18E-40
24		100%	5.54%	81	9	14	12	7	15	24		2.30E-35
25		110%	5.82%	75	8	13	11	7	14	22		8.12E-31
26		120%	6.09%	68	7	12	9	6	12	22		8.97E-26
27		130%	6.37%	63	6	12	8	5	12	20		2.32E-22
28		140%	6.65%	56	5	10	7	5	10	19		7.16E-18
29		150%	6.93%	51	5	9	5	4	10	18		6.80E-15
30		160%	7.20%	47	4	9	5	3	8	18		1.16E-12
31		170%	7.48%	43	4	9	5	3	7	15		1.41E-10
32		180%	7.76%	38	3	6	5	3	6	15		3.37E-08
33		190%	8.03%	33	3	6	5	2	5	12		4.20E-06
34		200%	8.31%	29	3	4	5	2	4	11		1.17E-04
35		250%	9.70%	15	1	3	0	1	0	10		1.06E-01
36
37	Check	30%	3.60%	135	12	27	19	17	23	37		1.20E-83
38
39		Cluster	Avg	ExitPolls	Margin of Error
40		Factor	MoE	> MoE	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
41		0%	2.77%	172	2.67%	3.13%	2.67%	2.95%	2.64%	2.55%
42		10%	3.05%	159	2.94%	3.44%	2.94%	3.25%	2.91%	2.80%
43		20%	3.32%	151	3.21%	3.75%	3.21%	3.54%	3.17%	3.06%
44		30%	3.60%	135	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%
45		40%	3.88%	128	3.74%	4.38%	3.74%	4.13%	3.70%	3.57%
46		50%	4.16%	118	4.01%	4.69%	4.01%	4.43%	3.96%	3.82%
47		60%	4.43%	112	4.27%	5.00%	4.28%	4.72%	4.23%	4.08%
48		70%	4.71%	105	4.54%	5.31%	4.55%	5.02%	4.49%	4.33%
49		80%	4.99%	93	4.81%	5.63%	4.81%	5.31%	4.76%	4.59%
50		90%	5.26%	87	5.08%	5.94%	5.08%	5.61%	5.02%	4.84%
51		100%	5.54%	81	5.34%	6.25%	5.35%	5.90%	5.28%	5.09%
52		110%	5.82%	75	5.61%	6.56%	5.62%	6.20%	5.55%	5.35%
53		120%	6.09%	68	5.88%	6.88%	5.88%	6.49%	5.81%	5.60%
54		130%	6.37%	63	6.14%	7.19%	6.15%	6.79%	6.08%	5.86%
55		140%	6.65%	56	6.41%	7.50%	6.42%	7.08%	6.34%	6.11%
56		150%	6.93%	51	6.68%	7.81%	6.69%	7.38%	6.60%	6.37%
57		160%	7.20%	47	6.95%	8.13%	6.95%	7.67%	6.87%	6.62%
58		170%	7.48%	43	7.21%	8.44%	7.22%	7.97%	7.13%	6.88%
59		180%	7.76%	38	7.48%	8.75%	7.49%	8.26%	7.40%	7.13%
60		190%	8.03%	33	7.75%	9.06%	7.76%	8.56%	7.66%	7.39%
61		200%	8.31%	29	8.02%	9.38%	8.02%	8.85%	7.93%	7.64%
62		250%	9.70%	15	9.35%	10.94%	9.36%	10.33%	9.25%	8.92%
63
64	Check	30%	3.60%	135	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%


1				2008 Late Votes
2
3
4	Total Votes	131,370,177	69,457,159	59,935,404	1,977,614	52.87%	45.62%	1.51%
5	Election Day	121,207,153	63,444,462	56,126,680	1,636,011	52.34%	46.31%	1.35%
6
7		Late recorded vote				Late recorded share			Recorded	Unadjusted Exit Poll			Unadjusted EP - Late Vote
8		Total	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama	McCain	Other	Total Votes
9	Late Votes	10,163,024	6,012,697	3,808,724	341,603	59.15%	37.47%	3.34%	52.87%	58.06%	40.29%	1.66%	-1.10%	2.81%	-1.70%	131,256,905
10	Correlation		59.16%	37.48%	3.36%	1.00	-0.37	-0.67	0.76	0.76	-0.76	0.01	-0.72	-0.28	0.67	0.14
11
12	Wyoming	78	24	45	9	30.8%	57.7%	11.5%	32.5%	34.06%	64.17%	1.77%	3.26%	6.47%	-9.73%	254,658
13	Delaware	84	65	18	1	77.4%	21.4%	1.2%	61.9%	68.61%	30.87%	0.52%	-8.79%	9.47%	-0.68%	265,853
14	South Dakota	102	47	55	0	46.1%	53.9%	0%	44.7%	48.72%	48.72%	2.56%	2.62%	-5.18%	2.56%	381,975
15	Hawaii	410	283	120	7	69%	29.3%	1.7%	71.8%	70.39%	27.56%	2.05%	1.39%	-1.74%	0.35%	453,568
16	Rhode Island	608	418	172	18	68.8%	28.3%	3%	63.1%	67.47%	29.41%	3.12%	-1.33%	1.11%	0.12%	469,767
17	Oklahoma	627	207	420	0	33%	67%	0%	34.4%	40.62%	59.26%	0.12%	7.62%	-7.74%	0.12%	1,462,661
18	Minnesota	1,646	1,152	463	31	70%	28.1%	1.9%	54.1%	61.86%	35.87%	2.27%	-8.14%	7.77%	0.37%	2,910,369
19	Kentucky	1,738	278	349	1,111	16%	20.1%	63.9%	41.1%	46.81%	51.61%	1.58%	30.81%	31.51%	-62.32%	1,826,508
20	North Dakota	1,787	166	79	1,542	9.3%	4.4%	86.3%	44.5%	38.88%	58.96%	2.16%	29.58%	54.56%	-84.14%	316,621
21	Louisiana	2,702	2,008	672	22	61.6%	24.9%	0.8%	39.9%	45.94%	52.98%	1.08%	-28.36%	28.08%	0.28%	1,960,761
22	Nevada	4,243	2,267	1,879	97	53.4%	44.3%	2.3%	55.1%	56.34%	41.78%	1.88%	2.94%	-2.52%	-0.42%	967,848
23	Idaho	5,679	1,553	1,651	2,475	27.3%	29.1%	43.6%	36%	41.83%	55.95%	2.22%	14.53%	26.85%	-41.38%	655,032
24	West Virginia	7,063	2,815	4,074	174	39.9%	57.7%	2.5%	42.6%	45.14%	53.13%	1.73%	5.24%	-4.57%	-0.77%	713,362
25	Alabama	8,103	1,969	2,805	3,329	24.3%	34.6%	41.1%	38.7%	52.00%	46.97%	1.03%	27.70%	12.37%	-40.07%	2,099,819
26	Missouri	9,993	5,166	3,201	1,626	51.7%	32%	16.3%	49.3%	57.50%	41.40%	1.10%	5.80%	9.40%	-15.20%	2,925,205
27	Iowa	13,085	9,270	3,913	-98	70.8%	29.9%	-0.7%	53.9%	56.90%	41.18%	1.92%	-13.90%	11.28%	2.62%	1,537,123
28	Indiana	15,022	6,775	4,547	3,700	45.1%	30.3%	24.6%	49.9%	55.66%	43.19%	1.16%	10.56%	12.89%	-23.44%	2,751,054
29	Wisconsin	17,764	6,737	4,212	6,815	37.9%	23.7%	38.4%	56.2%	63.30%	35.72%	0.98%	25.40%	12.02%	-37.42%	2,983,417
30	Tennessee	18,684	9,288	9,549	-153	49.7%	51.1%	-0.8%	41.8%	47.67%	50.29%	2.03%	-2.03%	-0.81%	2.83%	2,599,749
31	New Mexico	18,730	12,815	5,680	235	68.4%	30.3%	1.3%	56.9%	58.82%	39.54%	1.64%	-9.58%	9.24%	0.34%	830,158
32	Montana	20,103	11,805	6,720	1,578	58.7%	33.4%	7.8%	47.2%	54.37%	43.96%	1.67%	-4.33%	10.56%	-6.13%	491,960
33	Texas	27,452	10,551	15,421	1,480	38.4%	56.2%	5.4%	43.6%	46.22%	52.31%	1.48%	7.82%	-3.89%	-3.92%	8,077,795
34	Nebraska	31,474	17,130	13,314	1,030	54.4%	42.3%	3.3%	41.6%	49.24%	49.06%	1.70%	-5.16%	6.76%	-1.60%	801,281
35	Kansas	32,249	14,896	14,214	3,139	46.2%	44.1%	9.7%	41.6%	46.13%	52.63%	1.25%	-0.07%	8.53%	-8.45%	1,235,872
36	Massachusetts	38,029	18,176	4,853	15,000	47.8%	12.8%	39.4%	61.8%	67.01%	29.60%	3.39%	19.21%	16.80%	-36.01%	3,080,985
37	North Carolina	38,087	19,261	18,776	50	50.6%	49.3%	0.1%	49.7%	53.52%	45.84%	0.64%	2.92%	-3.46%	0.54%	4,310,789
38	D. C.	38,299	35,397	2,546	356	92.4%	6.6%	0.9%	92.5%	92.03%	6.37%	1.59%	-0.37%	-0.23%	0.69%	412,398
39	Vermont	51,215	35,827	13,146	2,242	70%	25.7%	4.4%	67.5%	71.46%	26.45%	2.09%	1.46%	0.75%	-2.31%	325,046
40	Maine	57,082	32,126	23,632	1,324	56.3%	41.4%	2.3%	57.7%	62.05%	35.45%	2.50%	5.75%	-5.95%	0.20%	731,163


1			State Presidential Exit Poll Response Rate Correlation Analysis 2000-2008
2			Republican vote shares were directly correlated to exit poll response rates in all three elections.																	http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf
3			This refutes the Reluctant Republican Responder Hypothesis.																	http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
4			There was an average 0.17 correlation between Republican exit poll shares and response rates vs. the Democratic -0.18.																	http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm
5			There was an average 0.11 correlation between Republican recorded shares and response rates vs. the Democratic -0.14.
6
7	* 2008 Estimate			2008	Exit		Recorded						2004	Exit		Recorded						2000	Exit		Recorded
8		Cast	Sample	Response	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Discrep	Obama win EP	Cast	Sample	Response	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Discrep	Kerry win EP	Cast	Sample	Response	Gore	Bush	Gore	Bush	Discrep	Gore win EP
9		(000)		Correl >	-0.21	0.19	-0.06	0.05	0.45	lose vote			Correl >	-0.32	0.30	-0.28	0.20	0.31	lose vote			Correl >	-0.01	0.02	-0.08	0.08	-0.18	lose vote
10	Total Vote share	131,145	82,388	45.79	58.07	40.27	52.80	45.69	-10.7		126,528	76,192	53.56	50.97	47.71	48.15	50.79	-5.9		110,825	57,275	54.66	50.75	44.46	48.28	48.02	-6.0

11	Average share		1,615	46.98	56.11	42.10	51.30	47.02	-9.7	7		1,494	54.47	49.43	49.07	46.51	52.06	-5.9	9		1,123	54.86	47.58	47.22	46.01	49.63	-4.0	12
12	Missouri	2,846	2,739	42.2	57.5	41.4	49.3	49.4	-16.2	1	2,815	2,264	47.0	50.4	48.7	46.1	53.3	-8.9	1	2,659	1,443	69.7	49.3	47.6	47.1	50.4	-5.1	1
13	Florida	7,951	3,350	45.9	52.1	46.1	50.9	48.1	-3.2	0	7,372	2,862	49.0	50.8	48.0	47.1	52.1	-7.8	1	6,006	1,816	54.6	53.4	43.6	48.8	48.8	-9.8	1
14	Colorado *	2,308	1,254	50.0	51.9	46.1	53.7	44.7	3.2	0	2,097	2,534	55.5	49.3	49.2	47.0	51.7	-4.8	1	1,633	924	50.1	45.3	44.9	42.4	50.8	-8.8	1
15	Virginia	3,650	2,466	38.8	62.5	36.7	52.6	46.3	-19.5	0	3,134	1,431	56.4	52.7	46.8	45.5	53.7	-14.1	1	2,962	1,559	60.3	48.6	47.9	44.4	52.5	-8.7	1
16	Nevada	1,027	2,769	46.8	56.3	41.8	55.1	42.7	-2.2	0	871	2,170	49.1	52.4	46.5	47.9	53.3	-11.4	1	641	1,001	56.2	49.0	46.7	46.0	49.5	-5.8	1
17	New Mexico	846	2,744	48.5	58.8	39.5	56.9	41.8	-4.2	0	837	2,006	56.9	53.9	44.3	49.0	49.8	-10.4	1	647	862	53.9	49.0	45.1	47.9	47.8	-3.8	0
18	Ohio	5,483	3,211	40.2	56.3	42.0	51.4	46.8	-9.6	0	5,485	2,020	44.1	54.1	45.7	48.7	50.8	-10.4	1	4,823	1,952	44.9	47.4	48.5	46.5	50.0	-2.4	0
19	New Hampshire	708	2,211	39.5	61.6	37.1	54.1	44.5	-15.0	0	677	1,871	44.0	56.7	42.0	50.2	53.3	-17.9	1	571	1,235	51.8	47.2	47.5	46.8	48.1	-0.9	0
20	Iowa	1,501	3,125	41.1	56.9	41.2	53.9	44.4	-6.2	0	1,522	2,512	52.6	49.3	49.0	49.2	49.9	-1.0	1	1,353	1,004	60.9	46.1	50.6	48.5	48.2	4.8	0
21	Alabama	2,126	1,073	41.1	52.0	47.0	38.7	60.3	-26.6	1	2,851	736	58.3	39.7	59.1	36.8	62.5	-6.3	0	1,953	829	61.9	51.7	46.2	41.6	56.5	-20.4	1
22	Georgia	4,183	1,941	51.5	51.1	48.7	46.9	52.1	-7.6	1	3,332	1,618	63.9	41.8	57.4	41.4	58.0	-1.0	0	2,827	1,245	49.9	49.2	46.7	43.0	54.7	-14.3	1
23	Arizona	2,497	1,233	39.9	51.4	47.9	44.9	53.4	-12.0	1	2,239	1,907	57.3	46.3	52.8	44.4	54.9	-3.9	0	1,644	1,156	61.2	47.1	46.4	44.7	51.0	-7.1	1
24	Alaska	304	1,194	49.8	49.1	47.5	37.9	59.4	-23.1	1	293	1,177	53.2	44.7	51.9	35.5	61.1	-18.4	0	270	167	63.9	31.0	56.0	27.7	58.6	-5.9	0
25	Montana	473	1,317	44.6	54.4	44.0	47.2	49.4	-12.6	1	482	638	63.0	39.3	56.7	38.6	53.3	2.7	0	409	900	55.9	32.0	58.9	33.4	58.4	1.8	0
26	Nebraska	844	1,119	43.6	49.2	49.1	41.6	56.5	-15.1	1	793	785	66.5	36.4	62.4	32.7	53.3	5.4	0	710	966	54.8	29.7	64.9	33.3	62.2	6.2	0
27	Texas	8,435	2,101	49.1	46.2	52.3	43.6	55.4	-5.7	0	7,950	1,794	58.3	41.5	57.5	38.2	61.1	-6.9	0	7,005	852	61.1	49.5	45.3	38.0	59.3	-25.5	1
28	North Carolina	4,370	2,814	38.3	53.5	45.8	49.7	49.4	-7.4	0	3,639	2,167	52.6	46.1	53.0	43.6	56.0	-5.5	0	2,995	1,217	50.7	50.7	47.4	43.2	56.0	-16.1	1
29	Tennessee	2,516	1,720	52.9	47.7	50.3	41.8	56.9	-12.5	0	2,319	1,783	66.7	41.6	56.4	42.5	56.8	0.5	0	2,183	1,053	64.5	54.4	43.5	47.3	51.1	-14.8	1
30	Arkansas	1,092	1,000	48.4	46.0	50.6	38.9	58.7	-15.2	0	1,140	1,457	60.2	44.4	54.8	44.5	54.3	0.6	0	936	1,092	55.3	52.2	44.4	45.9	51.3	-13.2	1
31	Idaho	644	765	47.1	41.8	55.9	36.0	61.3	-11.2	0	585	801	63.2	27.8	70.3	30.3	68.4	4.3	0	500	824	45.8	32.8	59.3	27.6	67.2	-13.0	0
32	Maryland	2,611	997	49.1	67.2	30.7	61.9	36.5	-11.1	0	2,413	1,065	59.4	54.8	43.8	55.9	42.9	1.9	0	2,178	849	64.9	61.0	34.6	56.6	40.2	-10.0	0
33	South Carolina	2,100	1,163	52.2	47.5	51.4	44.9	53.9	-5.1	0	1,899	1,782	59.4	47.8	50.6	40.9	58.0	-14.2	0	1,725	836	60.3	45.6	51.6	40.9	56.8	-9.9	0
34	Indiana	2,758	2,422	39.5	55.7	43.2	49.9	48.9	-11.5	0	2,598	941	38.6	39.5	59.5	39.3	59.9	-0.6	0	2,564	1,166	60.3	45.7	51.7	41.0	56.6	-9.6	0
35	Delaware	306	771	43.2	68.6	30.9	61.9	36.9	-12.7	0	385	766	57.5	63.3	36.0	53.3	45.8	-19.8	0	352	971	52	58.8	37.5	55.0	41.9	-8.3	0
36	New Jersey	3,637	1,582	46.9	63.8	35.1	57.2	41.6	-13.2	0	3,693	1,520	59.7	59.1	38.6	52.9	46.2	-13.9	0	3,374	1,569	57.5	58.8	36.1	56.1	40.3	-6.9	0
37	Louisiana	2,149	1,848	49.9	45.9	53.0	39.9	58.6	-11.7	0	2,067	1,683	47.8	44.2	54.5	42.2	56.7	-4.2	0	2,030	1,241	59.1	48.2	49.2	44.9	52.6	-6.7	0
38	Washington *	3,073	1,241	50.0	57.9	38.2	57.4	40.3	-2.6	0	2,851	2,178	53.8	56.5	41.9	52.8	45.6	-7.4	0	2,527	1,797	50.4	52.5	40.3	50.1	44.6	-6.6	0
39	Mississippi	1,439	1,053	47.4	48.4	51.1	43.0	56.2	-10.5	0	1,263	799	49.6	45.6	53.7	39.8	59.4	-11.5	0	1,213	781	38.1	44.0	54.7	40.7	57.6	-6.3	0
40	Illinois	5,436	1,389	45.9	66.3	32.4	61.9	36.8	-8.8	0	5,672	1,434	51.9	56.0	43.3	54.8	44.5	-2.4	0	5,030	1,475	53.1	56.3	38.8	54.6	42.6	-5.5	0
41	Michigan	4,865	3,096	41.5	62.2	35.5	57.4	40.9	-10.2	0	4,818	2,552	50.2	53.9	44.7	51.2	47.8	-5.7	0	4,343	1,636	48.4	53.5	44.1	51.3	46.1	-4.2	0
42	Kansas	1,219	800	44.8	46.1	52.6	41.6	56.5	-8.4	0	1,188	667	64.5	34.2	64.6	36.6	62.0	5.0	0	1,148	734	64.2	39.2	56.1	37.2	58.0	-3.9	0
43	California	13,828	2,309	40.4	67.0	30.6	61.0	36.9	-12.3	0	12,807	2,391	50.5	53.9	44.2	54.3	44.4	0.2	0	11,489	2,740	48.2	53.9	39.6	53.4	41.7	-2.5	0
44	Kentucky	1,952	1,457	48.1	46.8	51.6	41.1	57.4	-11.5	0	1,930	1,050	52.6	42.4	56.1	39.7	59.6	-6.2	0	1,645	1,134	53.8	41.7	55.1	41.4	56.5	-1.7	0
45	Pennsylvania	5,747	2,752	45.1	63.8	35.3	54.5	44.2	-18.2	0	5,845	2,107	46.8	56.6	42.9	50.9	48.4	-11.2	0	4,988	1,831	48.5	51.1	45.3	50.6	46.4	-1.6	0
46	Wyoming	250	960	58.6	34.1	64.2	32.5	64.8	-2.2	0	247	761	66.0	28.9	68.2	29.1	68.9	-0.5	0	219	728	60.1	28.2	66.9	27.7	67.8	-1.3	0
47	Massachusetts	3,044	767	41.3	67.0	29.6	61.8	36.0	-11.6	0	3,085	889	56.5	64.7	33.1	61.9	36.8	-6.5	0	2,772	887	66.0	60.2	32.2	59.8	32.5	-0.7	0
48	New York	7,559	1,595	49.0	71.5	27.3	62.8	36.1	-17.5	0	7,698	1,452	57.9	62.1	36.2	58.4	40.1	-7.6	0	7,004	2,268	68.5	59.2	33.9	60.2	35.2	-0.3	0
49	Oregon *	1,818	1,249	50.0	58.4	38.6	56.7	40.4	-3.6	0	1,924	1,000	53.0	52.2	46.3	51.3	47.2	-1.8	0	1,529	652	53.7	47.0	46.5	47.0	46.5	0.0	0
50	Wisconsin	2,887	2,545	45.5	63.3	35.7	56.2	42.3	-13.7	0	3,010	2,321	55.3	52.0	46.8	49.7	49.3	-4.8	0	2,632	1,145	55.8	47.4	47.2	47.8	47.6	0.0	0
51	Maine	716	1,560	56.7	62.1	35.4	57.7	40.4	-9.3	0	736	1,991	61.3	55.4	42.3	53.6	44.6	-4.1	0	677	993	54.0	47.3	42.3	49.1	44.0	0.1	0
52	Connecticut	1,610	864	50.9	73.4	24.0	60.6	38.2	-27.0	0	1,524	872	51.0	62.5	36.0	54.3	43.9	-16.1	0	1,332	1,082	54.9	54.8	37.7	55.9	38.4	0.4	0
53	Vermont	308	862	58.0	71.5	26.5	67.5	30.5	-8.0	0	316	698	53.1	68.8	27.8	58.9	38.8	-20.9	0	290	1,161	48.8	50.6	41.2	50.6	40.7	0.5	0
54	Rhode Island	507	833	37.9	67.5	29.4	63.1	35.2	-10.2	0	467	809	44.2	63.3	34.5	59.4	38.7	-8.1	0	438	1,103	42.7	57.9	30.3	61.0	31.9	1.4	0
55	West Virginia	741	1,039	45.9	45.1	53.1	42.6	55.7	-5.1	0	798	1,728	48.7	41.7	56.9	43.2	56.1	2.3	0	732	792	51.7	43.9	52.4	45.6	51.9	2.1	0
56	DC	408	502	49.2	92.0	6.4	92.5	6.5	0.3	0	270	795	53.5	90.7	8.1	89.2	9.3	-2.7	0	267	637	46.8	84.1	10.7	85.2	9.0	2.7	0
57	North Dakota	321	926	55.9	38.9	59.0	44.5	53.1	11.5	0	330	687	63.0	31.4	66.8	35.5	62.9	8.0	0	313	869	50.0	31.9	63.2	33.1	60.7	3.7	0
58	South Dakota	390	977	43.8	48.7	48.7	44.7	53.2	-8.5	0	378	1,544	42.7	35.1	62.6	38.4	59.9	6.0	0	311	583	34.4	35.3	63.1	37.6	60.3	5.1	0
59	Minnesota	2,759	2,381	44.8	61.9	35.9	54.1	43.8	-15.7	0	2,887	2,190	45.3	56.3	42.4	51.1	47.6	-10.4	0	2,376	1,172	46.9	45.4	48.7	47.9	45.5	5.7	0
60	Hawaii	457	878	57.7	70.4	27.6	71.8	26.6	2.4	0	433	622	53.4	61.3	38.7	54.0	45.3	-13.8	0	340	825	54.8	52.2	40.0	55.8	37.5	6.1	0
61	Utah	939	555	58.7	31.5	63.8	34.3	62.3	4.3	0	1,022	775	59.6	31.5	66.3	26.0	71.5	-10.7	0	829	832	57.6	23.2	70.1	26.3	66.8	6.4	0
62	Oklahoma	1,507	869	49.0	40.6	59.3	34.4	65.6	-12.6	0	1,541	1,590	53.2	36.3	62.6	34.4	65.6	-4.8	0	1,431	689	64.8	32.1	65.9	38.4	60.3	11.9	0
63
64
65			53.80	53.20	50.48	53.20	126528
66	State		Resp	BushRec	Bush Exit	BushRec	Cast
67	Missouri		47	53.3	48.67	53.30	2,851
68	Florida		49	52.1	48.04	52.10	293
69	Colorado *		56	51.7	49.17	51.70	2,239
70	Virginia		56	53.7	46.82	53.70	1,140
71	Nevada		49	53.3	46.45	53.30	12,807
72	New Mexico		57	49.8	44.32	49.80	2,097
73	Ohio		44	50.8	45.74	50.80	1,524
74	New Hampshire		44	53.3	41.96	53.30	270
75	Iowa		53	49.9	49.00	49.90	385
76	Alabama		58	62.5	59.10	62.50	7,372
77	Georgia		64	58	57.42	58.00	3,332
78	Arizona		57	54.9	52.81	54.90	433
79	Alaska		53	61.1	51.91	61.10	585
80	Montana		63	53.3	56.74	53.30	5,672
81	Nebraska		67	53.3	62.42	53.30	2,598
82	Texas		58	61.1	57.47	61.10	1,522
83	North Carolina		53	56	53.02	56.00	1,188
84	Tennessee		67	56.8	56.37	56.80	1,930
85	Arkansas		60	54.3	54.77	54.30	2,067
86	Idaho		63	68.4	70.29	68.40	736
87	Maryland		59	42.9	43.76	42.90	2,413
88	South Carolina		59	58	50.62	58.00	3,085
89	Indiana		39	59.9	59.51	59.90	4,818
90	Delaware		58	45.8	36.03	45.80	2,887
91	New Jersey		60	46.2	38.55	46.20	1,263
92	Louisiana		48	56.7	54.55	56.70	2,815
93	Washington *		54	45.6	41.87	45.60	482
94	Mississippi		50	59.4	53.69	59.40	793
95	Illinois		52	44.5	43.31	44.50	871
96	Michigan		50	47.8	44.75	47.80	677
97	Kansas		65	62	64.62	62.00	3,693
98	California		51	44.4	44.17	44.40	837
99	Kentucky		53	59.6	56.10	59.60	7,698
100	Pennsylvania		47	48.4	42.90	48.40	3,639
101	Wyoming		66	68.9	68.20	68.90	330
102	Massachusetts		57	36.8	33.07	36.80	5,485
103	New York		58	40.1	36.16	40.10	1,541
104	Oregon *		53	47.2	46.30	47.20	1,924
105	Wisconsin		55	49.3	46.79	49.30	5,845
106	Maine		61	44.6	42.34	44.60	467
107	Connecticut		51	43.9	36.01	43.90	1,899
108	Vermont		53	38.8	27.79	38.80	378
109	Rhode Island		44	38.7	34.49	38.70	2,319
110	West Virginia		49	56.1	56.89	56.10	7,950
111	DC		54	9.3	8.05	9.30	1,022
112	North Dakota		63	62.9	66.81	62.90	316
113	South Dakota		43	59.9	62.63	59.90	3,134
114	Minnesota		45	47.6	42.37	47.60	2,851
115	Hawaii		53	45.3	38.75	45.30	798
116	Utah		60	71.5	66.32	71.50	3,010
117	Oklahoma		53	65.6	62.64	65.60	247
118	State
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132


1
2		2010 Unadjusted House and Senate Exit Poll (Roper) vs. Final adjusted Weights (CNN)
3
4				Unadjusted Exit Poll					Adjusted to match the recorded vote
5		HOUSE		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP					http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=USH00p1
6
7		Voted 2008	Sample	Obama	McCain	Other	DNV	Total	Obama	McCain	Other	DNV
8			8936	4286	4012	300	338	17504	45%	45%	4%	4%
9				47.96%	44.90%	3.36%	3.78%	Adjustment	-2.96%	0.10%	0.64%	0.22%
10
11
12											Change in margin
13		Party ID	Sample	Dem	Rep	Ind		Total	Dem	Rep	Ind
14			17302	6401	6186	4715		17504	35%	35%	29%
15				37.00%	35.75%	27.25%		Adjustment	-2.00%	-0.75%	1.75%
16
17
18		SENATE
19											Change in margin
20
21		Party ID	MoE/Respondents	Dem	Rep	Ind		Dem	Rep	Ind
22			30% cluster effect					(adjustment)
23		Ohio	2.25%	38.35%	33.81%	27.84%		36%	36%	28%
24		Sample	3215	1233	1087	895		-2.35%	2.19%	0.16%	-4.54%
25
26
27		Wisconsin	2.78%	36.81%	35.71%	27.48%		37%	36%	27%
28		Sample	2100	773	750	577		0.19%	0.29%	-0.48%	-0.10%
29
30		Florida	2.27%	39.27%	33.86%	26.86%		35%	36%	29%
31		Sample	3142	1234	1064	844		-4.27%	2.14%	2.14%	-6.41%
32
33		Pennsylvania	2.52%	39.69%	37.27%	23.04%		40%	37%	23%
34		Sample	2565	1018	956	591		0.31%	-0.27%	-0.04%	0.58%
35
36		Oregon	3.87%	37.25%	25.42%	37.34%		36%	26%	38%
37		Sample	1082	403	275	404		-1.25%	0.58%	0.66%	-1.83%
38
39		Washington	3.81%	34.88%	23.17%	41.95%		35%	23%	42%
40		Sample	1118	390	259	469		0.12%	-0.17%	0.05%	0.28%
41
42		OBAMA APPROVAL	MoE	Approv	Dissaprove		Approve	Dissaprove	Change in margin
43		Ohio	3.04%	45.77%	54.23%		42%	57%
44		Sample	1761	806	955		-3.77%	2.77%	-6.54%
45
46
47		Wisconsin	4.15%	46.55%	53.45%		46%	53%
48		Sample	943	439	504		-0.55%	-0.45%	-0.11%
49
50		Florida	3.05%	49.17%	50.83%		45%	54%
51		Sample	1749	860	889		-4.17%	3.17%	-7.34%
52
53		Pennsylvania	3.47%	47.25%	52.75%		47%	53%
54		Sample	1346	636	710		-0.25%	0.25%	-0.50%
55
56		Oregon	4.01%	51.69%	48.31%		52%	47%
57		Sample	1008	521	487		0.31%	-1.31%	1.63%
58
59		Washington	3.98%	53.08%	46.92%		51%	49%
60		Sample	1023	543	480		-2.08%	2.08%	-4.16%
61
62
63		SENATE	MoE	Dem	Rep	Ind	Votes	Dem	Rep	Ind
64		Ohio	2.26%	44.38%	55.62%
65		Sample	3184	1413	1771
66
67
68		Wisconsin	2.72%	47.08%	51.37%	1.55%		47.04%	51.88%	1.08%
69		Sample	2192	1032	1126	34	2,171	1,021	1126	23.5
70
71		Florida	2.27%	25.86%	44.66%	29.48%
72		Sample	3144	813	1404	927
73
74		Pennsylvania	2.46%	49.81%	49.89%	0.30%		48.99%	51.01%
75		Sample	2672	1331	1333	8	3978	1949	2029
76
77		Oregon	3.94%	60.80%	39.20%
78		Sample	1046	636	410
79
80		Washington	3.82%	53.42%	46.58%
81		Sample	1110	593	517
82
83			Unadjusted Exit Poll					Adjusted Exit Poll (CNN)
84		GOVERNOR	MoE	Dem	Rep	Other		Dem	Rep
85		Ohio	2.22%	49.89%	47.35%	2.75%	Exit	47%	50%	3%
86		Sample	3305	1649	1565	91	Final	47.75%	49.83%	2.42%
87							3795	1812	1891	92
88
89		Wisconsin	2.73%	46.14%	52.66%	1.19%		47%	53%
90		Sample	2178	1005	1147	26		46.50%	52.29%	1.20%
91							2159	1004	1129	26
92
93		Florida	2.27%	50.79%	45.43%	3.78%		48%	50%	2%
94		Sample	3150	1600	1431	119		48.41%	49.58%	2.01%
95							5282	2557	2619	106
96
97		Pennsylvania	2.47%	45.26%	54.33%	0.41%		46%	54%
98		Sample	2658	1203	1444	11		45.52%	54.48%
99							3987	1815	2172
100
101		Oregon	3.98%	49.95%	50.05%			49%	48%
102		Sample	1027	513	514
103
104		Washington	3.79%	46.33%	53.67%
105		Sample	1131	524	607
106
107		IDEOLOGY	MoE	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative		Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
108		Ohio	2.27%	17.48%	42.62%	39.90%		16%	43%	41%
109		Sample	3158	552	1346	1260		-1.48%	0.38%	1.10%
110
111
112		Wisconsin	2.80%	20.47%	42.93%	36.59%		21%	43%	36%
113		Sample	2066	423	887	756		0.53%	0.07%	-0.59%
114
115		Florida	2.30%	19.20%	44.16%	36.64%		19%	42%	39%
116		Sample	3073	590	1357	1126		-0.20%	-2.16%	2.36%
117
118		Pennsylvania	2.53%	19.10%	45.83%	35.07%		19%	46%	35%
119		Sample	2529	483	1159	887		-0.10%	0.17%	-0.07%
120
121		Oregon	3.92%	26.61%	35.70%	37.69%		28%	37%	36%
122		Sample	1056	281	377	398		1.39%	1.30%	-1.69%
123
124		Washington	3.82%	26.94%	38.29%	34.77%		30%	35%	36%
125		Sample	1110	299	425	386		3.06%	-3.29%	1.23%
126
127		VOTED 2008	MoE	Obama	McCain	Other		Obama	McCain	Other	Change in margin
128		Ohio	2.87%	50.25%	45.38%	4.37%		44%	47%	5%
129		Sample	1970	990	894	86		-6.25%	1.62%	0.63%	-7.87%
130
131
132		Wisconsin	4.03%	51.45%	45.55%	3.00%		49%	43%	3%
133		Sample	999	514	455	30		-2.45%	-2.55%	0.00%	0.09%
134
135		Florida	2.93%	52.22%	44.77%	3.01%		47%	47%	3%
136		Sample	1894	989	848	57		-5.22%	2.23%	-0.01%	-7.44%
137
138		Pennsylvania	3.20%	51.30%	45.79%	2.91%		49%	45%	3%
139		Sample	1581	811	724	46		-2.30%	-0.79%	0.09%	-1.50%
140
141		Oregon	3.94%	56.90%	37.74%	5.36%		53%	36%	6%
142		Sample	1044	594	394	56		-3.90%	-1.74%	0.64%	-2.16%
143
144		Washington	4.02%	54.77%	39.86%	5.37%		51%	38%	5%
145		Sample	1006	551	401	54		-3.77%	-1.86%	-0.37%	-1.91%
146
147		SIZE PLACE	MoE	Urban	Suburban	Rural		Urban	Suburban	Rural	change in margin
148		Ohio	2.20%	27.65%	47.79%	24.56%		30%	47%	22%
149		Sample	3367	931	1609	827		2.35%	-0.79%	-2.56%	3.14%
150
151
152		Wisconsin	2.72%	18.37%	49.95%	31.68%		16%	49%	35%
153		Sample	2194	403	1096	695		-2.37%	-0.95%	3.32%	-1.41%
154
155		Florida	2.24%	32.08%	50.80%	17.12%		26%	59%	16%
156		Sample	3236	1038	1644	554		-6.08%	8.20%	-1.12%	-14.27%
157
158		Pennsylvania	2.45%	17.30%	64.59%	18.11%		20%	63%	17%
159		Sample	2700	467	1744	489		2.70%	-1.59%	-1.11%	4.30%
160
161		Oregon	3.86%	31.22%	39.58%	29.20%		35%	39%	26%
162		Sample	1089	340	431	318		3.78%	-0.58%	-3.20%	4.36%
163
164		Washington	3.79%	27.50%	49.96%	22.55%		27%	52%	21%
165		Sample	1131	311	565	255		-0.50%	2.04%	-1.55%	-2.54%
166
167
168		GENDER	MoE	Male	Female		Male	Female
169		Ohio	2.20%	45.45%	54.55%		48%	52%
170		Sample	3344	1520	1824		2.55%	-2.55%
171
172
173		Wisconsin	2.72%	48.06%	51.94%		50%	50%
174		Sample	2191	1053	1138		1.94%	-1.94%
175
176		Florida	2.24%	42.89%	57.11%		45%	55%
177		Sample	3227	1384	1843		2.11%	-2.11%
178
179		Pennsylvania	2.45%	46.23%	53.77%		49%	51%
180		Sample	2693	1245	1448		2.77%	-2.77%
181
182		Oregon	3.86%	44.44%	55.56%		51%	49%
183		Sample	1089	484	605		6.56%	-6.56%
184
185		Washington	3.79%	46.33%	53.67%		48%	52%
186		Sample	1131	524	607		1.67%	-1.67%
187
188
189		AGE	MoE	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+	18-29	30-44	45-64	65+
190		Ohio	2.20%	10.66%	21.37%	46.57%	21.40%	12%	23%	47%	17%
191		Sample	3350	357	716	1560	717	1.34%	1.63%	0.43%	-4.40%
192
193
194		Wisconsin	2.72%	13.63%	24.19%	45.63%	16.55%	15%	23%	45%	17%
195		Sample	2187	298	529	998	362	1.37%	-1.19%	-0.63%	0.45%
196
197		Florida	2.25%	9.29%	19.36%	41.49%	29.86%	8%	17%	39%	35%
198		Sample	3208	298	621	1331	958	-1.29%	-2.36%	-2.49%	5.14%
199
200		Pennsylvania	2.46%	11.04%	21.96%	43.89%	23.11%	13%	21%	44%	23%
201		Sample	2691	297	591	1181	622	1.96%	-0.96%	0.11%	-0.11%
202
203
204		Oregon	3.88%	5.67%	16.54%	41.54%	36.25%	12%	27%	40%	22%
205		Sample	1076	61	178	447	390	6.33%	10.46%	-1.54%	-14.25%
206
207		Washingtom	3.81%	7.14%	16.15%	43.35%	33.36%	13%	25%	39%	24%
208		Sample	1121	80	181	486	374	5.86%	8.85%	-4.35%	-9.36%
209
210
211
212
213
214				National			Florida			Ohio
215		GENDER	Male	Female		Male	Female		Male	Female
216		Unadjusted	47.1	52.9		42.9	57.1		48.5	54.5
217		Adjusted	48	52		45	55		48	52
218
219
220		Party ID	Dem	Rep	Ind	Dem	Rep	Ind	Dem	Rep	Ind
221		Unadjusted	37	35.8	27.2	39.2	33.9	26.9	38.4	33.9	27.7
222		Adjusted	35	35	30	35	36	27	36	36	28
223
224
225
226		Obama Approval		Rating
227		Unadjusted	National	45.9
228		Adjusted		44
229
230		Unadjusted	Florida	49.2
231		Adjusted		45
232
233		Unadjusted	Ohio	45.8
234		Adjusted		42
235
236
237		Region	National	East	Midwest	South	West
238		Unadjusted		24.8	31.7	26.1	17.4
239		Adjusted		21	25	31	23
240
241		Voted 2008	Sample	Dem	Rep	Ind	DNV
242		Unadjusted	National	48.1	45	3.4	3.5
243		Adjusted		45	45
244
245		Unadjusted	Florida	52.2	44.8
246		Adjusted		47	47
247
248		Unadjusted	Ohio	50.3	45.4
249		Adjusted		44	47
250
251		Ideology	Sample	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
252		Unadjusted	National	20.6	40.9	38.5
253		Adjusted		20	38	42
254
255		Unadjusted	Florida	39.2	33.9	26.9
256		Adjusted		35	36	27
257
258		Unadjusted	Ohio	38.4	27.8	27.8
259		Adjusted		36	36	28
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375	Florida
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389	2010 Governor Exit Poll
390
391
392
393
394
395	2010 Governor Exit Poll (forced to match recorded vote)
396
397
398	Voted 2008
399	Mix
400	Sink
401	Scott
402	Other
403	Votes
404
405	Voted 2008
406	Mix
407	Sink
408	Scott
409	Other
410	Votes
411
412	Obama
413	47%
414	90%
415	8%
416	2%
417	2482
418
419	Obama
420	47%
421	88%
422	10%
423	2%
424	2482
425
426	McCain
427	47%
428	11%
429	85%
430	4%
431	2482
432
433	McCain
434	47%
435	11%
436	87%
437	2%
438	2482
439
440	Other
441	3%
442	54%
443	30%
444	16%
445	158
446
447	Other
448	3%
449	32%
450	66%
451	2%
452	158
453
454	DNV
455	3%
456	55%
457	30%
458	15%
459	158
460
461	DNV
462	3%
463	31%
464	67%
465	2%
466	158
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482	Share
483	100%
484	50.8%
485	45.4%
486	3.8%
487
488
489	Recorded
490	100%
491	48.4%
492	49.6%
493	2%
494
495
496	Votes
497	5282
498	2683
499	2401
500	198
501	5282
502
503	Votes
504	5282
505	2557
506	2619
507	106
508	5282
509
510
511	Margin
512	282
513
514
515
516
517
518	Margin
519	-61
520
521
522
523
524
525
526
527
528
529
530
531
532
533
534
535
536
537
538	Exit Poll Resp
539	3150
540	1600
541	1431
542	119
543
544
545
546
547
548
549
550
551
552
553
554	50.8%
555	45.4%
556	3.8%
557
558
559
560
561
562
563
564
565
566
567
568
569
570
571
572
573


1
2		2006 House National Exit Poll: Unadjusted (Roper) and adjusted Final (CNN)
3
4
5
6	Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,251)
7	http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/tag/congressional_elections.html#.T8yypbA7WAg
8		Sample	Democrat	Republican	Other
9		13251	7470	5476	305
10		Share	56.37%	41.33%	2.30%
11		Discrepancy	3.82%	-3.63%	-1.88%
12
13	CNN
14	13,251 Respondents		Final 2006 National Exit Poll
15	Updated: 11:45 a.m.		Forecd to match the recorded Vote
16	http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html
17
18	VOTE BY GENDER
19	TOTAL					Sample	Unadjusted	Diff
20	Male (49%)	49%	50%	47%	3%	6328	45.91%	3.09%
21	Female (51%)	51%	55%	43%	2%	7454	54.09%	-3.09%
22		100%	52.55%	44.96%	2.49%	13782	100.00%
23
24	VOTE BY RACE AND GENDER
25	TOTAL
26	White Men (39%)	39%	44%	53%	3%
27	White Women (40%)	40%	49%	50%	1%
28	Non-White Men (9%)	9%	75%	23%	2%
29	Non-White Women (11%)	11%	78%	21%	1%
30		99%	52.09%	45.05%	1.86%
31
32	VOTE BY RACE
33	TOTAL					Sample	Unadjusted	Diff
34	White (79%)	79%	47%	51%	2%	10751	79.02%	-0.02%
35	African-American (10%)	10%	89%	10%	1%	1434	10.54%	-0.54%
36	Latino (8%)	8%	69%	30%	1%	964	7.09%	0.91%
37	Asian (2%)	2%	62%	37%	1%	226	1.66%	0.34%
38	Other (2%)	2%	55%	42%	3%	230	1.69%	0.31%
39		101%	53.89%	45.27%	1.84%	13605	100.00%
40
41	VOTE BY AGE
42	TOTAL
43	18-29 (12%)	12%	60%	38%	2%
44	30-44 (24%)	24%	53%	45%	2%
45	45-59 (34%)	34%	53%	46%	1%
46	60 and Older (29%)	29%	50%	48%	2%
47		99%	52.44%	44.92%	1.64%
48
49	VOTE BY AGE
50	TOTAL
51	18-64 (81%)	81%	54%	44%	2%
52	65 and Older (19%)	19%	49%	49%	2%
53		100%	53.05%	44.95%	2.00%
54
55	VOTE BY INCOME
56	TOTAL
57	Under $15,000 (7%)	7%	67%	30%	3%
58	$15-30,000 (12%)	12%	61%	36%	3%
59	$30-50,000 (21%)	21%	56%	43%	1%
60	$50-75,000 (22%)	22%	50%	48%	2%
61	$75-100,000 (16%)	16%	52%	47%	1%
62	$100-150,000 (13%)	13%	47%	51%	2%
63	$150-200,000 (5%)	5%	47%	51%	2%
64	$200,000 or More (5%)	5%	45%	53%	2%
65		101%	53.80%	45.36%	1.84%
66
67	VOTE BY INCOME
68	TOTAL
69	Less Than $50,000 (40%)	40%	60%	38%	2%
70	$50,000 or More (60%)	60%	49%	49%	2%
71		100%	53.40%	44.60%	2.00%
72
73	VOTE BY INCOME
74	TOTAL
75	Less Than $100,000 (78%)	78%	55%	43%	2%
76	$100,000 or More (22%)	22%	47%	52%	1%
77		100%	53.24%	44.98%	1.78%
78
79	VOTE BY EDUCATION
80	TOTAL					Sample	Unadjusted
81	No High School (3%)	3%	64%	35%	1%	223	4.17%	-1.17%
82	H.S. Graduate (21%)	21%	55%	44%	1%	1305	24.42%	-3.42%
83	Some College (31%)	31%	51%	47%	2%	965	18.05%	12.95%
84	College Graduate (27%)	27%	49%	49%	2%	1667	31.19%	-4.19%
85	Postgraduate (18%)	18%	58%	41%	1%	1185	22.17%	-4.17%
86		100%	52.95%	45.47%	1.58%	5345	100.00%
87
88	VOTE BY EDUCATION
89	TOTAL
90	No College Degree (55%)	55%	53%	45%	2%
91	College Graduate (45%)	45%	53%	46%	1%
92		100%	53.00%	45.45%	1.55%
93
94	VOTE BY EDUCATION
95	TOTAL
96	No College Education (24%)	24%	56%	43%	1%
97	College Educated (76%)	76%	52%	46%	2%
98		100%	52.96%	45.28%	1.76%
99
100	ANYONE IN HOUSEHOLD IN A UNION?
101	TOTAL
102	Yes, I Am (12%)	12%	68%	31%	1%
103	Yes, Someone Else Is (9%)	9%	57%	40%	3%
104	Yes, Both (2%)	2%	71%	25%	4%
105	No, No One Is (77%)	77%	49%	49%	2%
106		100%	52.44%	45.55%	2.01%
107
108	ARE YOU A UNION MEMBER?
109	TOTAL
110	Yes (14%)	14%	68%	30%	2%
111	No (86%)	86%	50%	48%	2%
112		100%	52.52%	45.48%	2.00%
113
114	ANYONE IN HOUSEHOLD IN A UNION?
115	TOTAL
116	Yes (23%)	23%	64%	34%	2%
117	No (77%)	77%	49%	49%	2%
118		100%	52.45%	45.55%	2.00%
119
120	VOTE BY PARTY ID
121	TOTAL
122	Democrat (38%)	38%	93%	7%	0%
123	Republican (36%)	36%	8%	91%	1%
124	Independent (26%)	26%	57%	39%	4%
125		100%	53.04%	45.56%	1.40%
126
127	VOTE BY IDEOLOGY
128	TOTAL					Sample	Unadjusted
129	Liberal (20%)	20%	87%	11%	2%	2658	20.98%	-0.98%
130	Moderate (47%)	47%	60%	38%	2%	6112	48.25%	-1.25%
131	Conservative (32%)	32%	20%	78%	2%	3897	30.76%	1.24%
132		99%	52.00%	45.02%	1.98%	12667	100.00%
133
134	VOTE BY RELIGION
135	TOTAL
136	Protestant (55%)	55%	44%	54%	2%	2187	40.86%	14.14%
137	Catholic (26%)	26%	55%	44%	1%	1679	31.37%	-5.37%
138	Jewish (2%)	2%	87%	12%	1%	130	2.43%	-0.43%
139	Other (6%)	6%	71%	25%	4%	1243	23.22%	-17.22%
140	None (11%)	11%	74%	22%	4%	113	2.11%	8.89%
141		100%	52.64%	45.30%	2.06%	5352	100.00%
142
143	VOTE BY RELIGION AMONG WHITES
144	TOTAL
145	White Protestants (44%)	44%	37%	61%	2%
146	White Catholics (20%)	20%	50%	49%	1%
147	White Jewish Voters (2%)	2%	87%	11%	2%
148	Whites - Other (4%)	4%	66%	29%	5%
149	White - No Religion (8%)	8%	72%	25%	3%
150	Non-White Voters (23%)	23%	75%	24%	1%
151		101%	53.67%	45.54%	1.79%
152
153	BORN-AGAIN OR EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN?
154	TOTAL
155	Yes (34%)	34%	41%	58%	1%
156	No (66%)	66%	59%	39%	2%
157		100%	52.88%	45.46%	1.66%
158
159	WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN-AGAIN?
160	TOTAL
161	Yes (24%)	24%	28%	70%	2%
162	No (76%)	76%	60%	38%	2%
163		100%	52.32%	45.68%	2.00%
164
165	VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE
166	TOTAL
167	More Than Weekly (17%)	17%	38%	60%	2%
168	Weekly (28%)	28%	46%	53%	1%
169	Monthly (12%)	12%	57%	41%	2%
170	A Few Times a Year (25%)	25%	60%	38%	2%
171	Never (15%)	15%	67%	30%	3%
172		97%	51.23%	43.96%	1.81%
173
174	VOTE BY CHURCH ATTENDANCE
175	TOTAL
176	Weekly (45%)	45%	43%	55%	2%
177	Occasionally (38%)	38%	59%	39%	2%
178	Never (15%)	15%	67%	30%	3%
179		98%	51.82%	44.07%	2.11%
180
181	ARE YOU MARRIED?
182	TOTAL
183	Yes (68%)	68%	48%	51%	1%
184	No (32%)	32%	64%	34%	2%
185		100%	53.12%	45.56%	1.32%
186
187	VOTE BY GENDER AND MARITAL STATUS
188	TOTAL
189	Married Women (32%)	32%	48%	50%	2%
190	Men+Unmarr. Women (68%)	68%	55%	43%	2%
191		100%	52.76%	45.24%	2.00%
192
193	ARE YOU MARRIED?
194	TOTAL
195	Married Men (35%)	35%	47%	51%	2%
196	Married Women (33%)	33%	48%	50%	2%
197	Unmarried Men (14%)	14%	62%	36%	2%
198	Unmarried Women (18%)	18%	66%	32%	2%
199		100%	52.85%	45.15%	2.00%
200
201	ARE YOU MARRIED WITH CHILDREN?
202	TOTAL
203	Yes (27%)	27%	48%	51%	1%
204	No (73%)	73%	56%	42%	2%
205		100%	53.84%	44.43%	1.73%
206
207	DO YOU HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18?
208	TOTAL
209	Yes (34%)	34%	51%	47%	2%
210	No (66%)	66%	54%	44%	2%
211		100%	52.98%	45.02%	2.00%
212
213	DO YOU HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18?
214	TOTAL
215	Fathers (16%)	16%	48%	50%	2%
216	Mothers (18%)	18%	53%	45%	2%
217	Men w/No Children (32%)	32%	52%	46%	2%
218	Women w/No Children (33%)	33%	57%	42%	1%
219		99%	52.67%	44.68%	1.65%
220
221	VOTE BY MARITAL STATUS AND GENDER
222	TOTAL
223	Married Mothers (14%)	14%	49%	49%	2%
224	All Other Women (37%)	37%	58%	41%	1%
225	All Men (49%)	49%	51%	47%	2%
226		100%	53.31%	45.06%	1.63%
227
228	ARE YOU GAY, LESBIAN OR BISEXUAL?
229	TOTAL
230	Yes (3%)	3%	75%	24%	1%
231	No (97%)	97%	52%	46%	2%
232		100%	52.69%	45.34%	1.97%
233
234	VOTE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004
235	TOTAL					Sample	Unadjusted
236	Kerry (43%)	43%	92%	7%	1%	2893	45.48%	-2.48%
237	Bush (49%)	49%	15%	83%	2%	2957	46.49%	2.51%
238	Someone Else (4%)	4%	66%	23%	11%	263	4.13%	-0.13%
239	Did Not Vote (4%)	4%	66%	32%	2%	248	3.90%	0.10%
240		100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%	6361	100.00%
241
242	HOW GEORGE W. BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOB
243	TOTAL
244	Strongly Approve (19%)	19%	9%	90%	1%	1260	18.15%	0.85%
245	Somewhat Approve (23%)	23%	18%	79%	3%	1578	22.73%	0.27%
246	Somewhat Disapprove (15%)	15%	59%	38%	3%	1093	15.74%	-0.74%
247	Strongly Disapprove (41%)	41%	91%	7%	2%	3012	43.38%	-2.38%
248		98%	52.01%	43.84%	2.15%	6943	100.00%
249
250	HOW GEORGE W. BUSH IS HANDLING HIS JOB
251	TOTAL
252	Approve (43%)	43%	14%	84%	2%
253	Disapprove (57%)	57%	82%	16%	2%
254		100%	52.76%	45.24%	2.00%
255
256	OPINION OF BUSH
257	TOTAL
258	Enthusiastic (12%)	12%	5%	94%	1%
259	Satisfied (27%)	27%	15%	83%	2%
260	Dissatisfied (30%)	30%	69%	29%	2%
261	Angry (29%)	29%	92%	6%	2%
262		98%	52.03%	44.13%	1.84%
263
264	OPINION OF GOP LEADERS IN CONGRESS
265	TOTAL
266	Enthusiastic (11%)	11%	6%	93%	1%
267	Satisfied (33%)	33%	17%	81%	2%
268	Dissatisfied (34%)	34%	76%	22%	2%
269	Angry (21%)	21%	94%	4%	2%
270		99%	51.85%	45.28%	1.87%
271
272	HOW CONGRESS IS HANDLING ITS JOB
273	TOTAL
274	Strongly Approve (5%)	5%	28%	72%	0%
275	Somewhat Approve (32%)	32%	26%	72%	2%
276	Somewhat Disapprove (32%)	32%	60%	38%	2%
277	Strongly Disapprove (29%)	29%	79%	17%	4%
278		98%	51.83%	43.73%	2.44%
279
280	HOW CONGRESS IS HANDLING ITS JOB
281	TOTAL
282	Approve (37%)	37%	26%	72%	2%
283	Disapprove (61%)	61%	69%	28%	3%
284		98%	51.71%	43.72%	2.57%
285
286	HOW GOP LEADERS HANDLED PAGE SCANDAL
287	TOTAL
288	Strongly Approve (12%)	12%	22%	77%	1%
289	Somewhat Approve (27%)	27%	27%	71%	2%
290	Somewhat Disapprove (25%)	25%	60%	38%	2%
291	Strongly Disapprove (28%)	28%	85%	13%	2%
292		92%	48.73%	41.55%	1.72%
293
294	HOW GOP LEADERS HANDLED PAGE SCANDAL
295	TOTAL
296	Approve (38%)	38%	26%	73%	1%
297	Disapprove (53%)	53%	73%	25%	2%
298		91%	48.57%	40.99%	1.44%
299
300	WHICH MATTERED MORE TO YOUR VOTE
301	TOTAL
302	Local Issues (34%)	34%	51%	47%	2%
303	National Issues (60%)	60%	54%	45%	1%
304		94%	49.74%	42.98%	1.28%
305
306	VOTED TODAY TO...
307	TOTAL
308	Support Bush (22%)	22%	6%	93%	1%
309	Oppose Bush (36%)	36%	93%	5%	2%
310	Bush Not a Factor (39%)	39%	41%	56%	3%
311		97%	50.79%	44.10%	2.11%
312
313	WHEN DID YOU DECIDE YOUR HOUSE VOTE?
314	TOTAL
315	Today (10%)	10%	61%	36%	3%
316	Last Three Days (9%)	9%	51%	47%	2%
317	Last Week (9%)	9%	52%	47%	1%
318	Last Month (21%)	21%	54%	44%	2%
319	Before Then (50%)	50%	54%	45%	1%
320		99%	53.71%	43.80%	1.49%
321
322	WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHO TO VOTE FOR?
323	TOTAL
324	Today/Last 3 Days (19%)	19%	56%	41%	3%
325	Earlier Than That (80%)	80%	54%	45%	1%
326		99%	53.84%	43.79%	1.37%
327
328	WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHO TO VOTE FOR?
329	TOTAL
330	Today/Last Week (28%)	28%	55%	43%	2%
331	Earlier Than That (71%)	71%	54%	45%	1%
332		99%	53.74%	43.99%	2.27%
333
334	IS U.S. GOING IN RIGHT DIRECTION?
335	TOTAL
336	Yes (41%)	41%	20%	79%	1%
337	No (55%)	55%	78%	20%	2%
338		96%	51.10%	43.39%	1.51%
339
340	NATIONAL ECONOMY
341	TOTAL
342	Excellent (9%)	9%	13%	86%	1%
343	Good (40%)	40%	32%	66%	2%
344	Not Good (37%)	37%	74%	23%	3%
345	Poor (13%)	13%	85%	13%	2%
346		99%	52.40%	44.34%	2.26%
347
348	NATIONAL ECONOMY
349	TOTAL
350	Excellent or Good (49%)	49%	28%	70%	2%
351	Not Good or Poor (50%)	50%	77%	21%	2%
352		99%	52.22%	44.80%	1.98%
353
354	FAMILY'S FINANCIAL SITUATION
355	TOTAL
356	Better (30%)	30%	28%	71%	1%
357	Worse (25%)	25%	77%	20%	3%
358	Same (44%)	44%	56%	42%	2%
359		99%	52.29%	44.78%	1.93%


1
2							US Census: Votes Cast and Net Uncounted Votes
3	75%	Uncounted to Dem
4		2004			2000			1996			1992			1988			1988-2004 Total
5	Recorded	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin	Dem	Rep	Margin
6	Votes	59,028	62,040	-3,012	51,004	50,460	544	47,400	39,200	8,200	44,911	39,106	5,805	41,810	48,887	-7,077	244,153	239,693	4,460
7	Share	48.27%	50.73%	-2.46%	48.36%	47.85%	0.52%	49.23%	40.72%	8.52%	43.01%	37.45%	5.56%	45.65%	53.37%	-7.73%	46.95%	46.09%	0.86%
8	Allocate Unctd
9	Votes	61,611	62,901	-1,290	55,029	51,802	3,227	53,954	41,385	12,569	51,990	41,466	10,525	49,798	51,550	-1,752	272,382	249,102	23,279
10	Share	49.00%	50.03%	-1.03%	49.65%	46.74%	2.91%	51.38%	39.41%	11.97%	45.66%	36.42%	9.24%	48.70%	50.42%	-1.71%	48.84%	44.67%	4.17%
11	Exit Poll
12	Votes	64,252	59,725	4,527	56,299	49,206	7,093	55,237	38,960	16,277	54,200	36,096	18,105	51,429	49,793	1,636	281,417	233,780	47,637
13	Share	51.10%	47.5%	3.60%	50.8%	44.4%	6.40%	52.6%	37.1%	15.50%	47.6%	31.7%	15.90%	50.3%	48.7%	1.60%	50.46%	41.92%	8.54%
14	Deviations
15	Alloc - EP	-2.10%	2.53%	-4.63%	-1.15%	2.34%	-3.49%	-1.22%	2.31%	-3.53%	-1.94%	4.72%	-6.66%	-1.60%	1.72%	-3.31%	-1.62%	2.75%	-4.37%
16	EP - Rec'd	2.83%	-3.23%	6.06%	2.44%	-3.45%	5.88%	3.37%	-3.62%	6.98%	4.59%	-5.75%	10.34%	4.65%	-4.67%	9.33%	3.51%	-4.17%	7.68%
17
18		2004			2000			1996			1992			1988			1988-2004 Total
19		Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	Cast	Recorded	Net Unct	NetUnctd/Cast
20	Total	125,737	122,293	3,444	110,825	105,458	5,367	105,013	96,275	8,738	113,866	104,427	9,439	102,245	91,595	10,650	557,686	520,048	37,638	6.75%
21																				sort
22	DC	270	228	42	267	202	65	239	186	53	263	228	35	285	193	92	1,324	1,037	287	21.69%
23	SC	1,899	1,618	281	1,725	1,384	341	1,479	1,149	330	1,496	1,203	293	1,216	986	230	7,815	6,340	1,475	18.87%
24	MS	1,263	1,152	111	1,213	995	218	1,069	894	175	1,226	982	244	1,132	932	200	5,903	4,954	949	16.07%
25	AL	2,060	1,883	177	1,953	1,673	280	1,744	1,534	210	1,913	1,688	225	1,685	1,378	307	9,355	8,156	1,199	12.82%
26	LA	2,067	1,943	124	2,030	1,766	264	1,915	1,784	131	2,040	1,790	250	1,979	1,628	351	10,031	8,911	1,120	11.17%
27	IN	2,598	2,468	130	2,564	2,199	365	2,367	2,136	231	2,636	2,306	330	2,449	2,169	280	12,614	11,278	1,336	10.59%
28	NM	837	756	81	647	599	48	627	556	71	675	570	105	567	521	46	3,353	3,002	351	10.47%
29	WV	798	756	42	732	648	84	715	636	79	784	684	100	730	653	77	3,759	3,377	382	10.15%
30	OK	1,541	1,464	77	1,431	1,234	197	1,379	1,207	172	1,549	1,390	159	1,282	1,171	111	7,182	6,466	716	9.97%
31	AZ	2,239	2,013	226	1,644	1,534	110	1,489	1,404	85	1,728	1,487	241	1,339	1,172	167	8,439	7,610	829	9.82%
32	RI	467	437	30	438	409	29	439	390	49	522	453	69	455	405	50	2,321	2,094	227	9.80%
33	GA	3,332	3,302	30	2,827	2,597	230	2,632	2,299	333	2,556	2,321	235	2,247	1,810	437	13,594	12,328	1,266	9.31%
34	MD	2,413	2,387	26	2,178	2,025	153	2,048	1,781	267	2,392	1,985	407	1,875	1,714	161	10,906	9,893	1,013	9.29%
35	TX	7,950	7,411	539	7,005	6,408	597	6,210	5,612	598	6,817	6,154	663	6,186	5,427	759	34,168	31,012	3,156	9.24%
36	NC	3,639	3,501	138	2,995	2,911	84	2,897	2,516	381	2,986	2,612	374	2,513	2,134	379	15,030	13,675	1,355	9.02%
37	IL	5,672	5,274	398	5,030	4,742	288	4,779	4,311	468	5,650	5,050	600	5,073	4,559	514	26,204	23,936	2,268	8.65%
38	MO	2,815	2,731	84	2,659	2,360	299	2,397	2,158	239	2,518	2,391	127	2,422	2,093	329	12,811	11,733	1,078	8.41%
39	NV	871	830	41	641	609	32	562	464	98	556	506	50	371	350	21	3,001	2,759	242	8.06%
40	UT	1,022	928	94	829	771	58	707	666	41	793	744	49	731	647	84	4,082	3,756	326	7.99%
41	VA	3,134	3,198	-64	2,962	2,739	223	2,796	2,417	379	2,805	2,559	246	2,504	2,192	312	14,201	13,105	1,096	7.72%
42	ND	330	313	17	313	288	25	300	266	34	316	308	8	335	297	38	1,594	1,473	121	7.62%
43	AR	1,140	1,055	85	936	922	14	949	884	65	1,012	951	61	972	828	144	5,009	4,640	369	7.38%
44	NY	7,698	7,391	307	7,004	6,823	181	6,830	6,316	514	7,613	6,927	686	7,174	6,486	688	36,319	33,942	2,377	6.54%
45	DE	385	375	10	352	328	24	293	271	22	343	290	53	246	250	-4	1,619	1,514	105	6.52%
46	KS	1,188	1,188	0	1,148	1,072	76	1,129	1,074	55	1,306	1,157	149	1,074	993	81	5,845	5,484	361	6.17%
47	NJ	3,693	3,612	81	3,374	3,187	187	3,251	3,076	175	3,572	3,344	228	3,453	3,100	353	17,343	16,319	1,024	5.91%
48	PA	5,845	5,770	75	4,988	4,913	75	4,951	4,506	445	5,491	4,960	531	4,955	4,536	419	26,230	24,685	1,545	5.89%
49	KY	1,930	1,796	134	1,645	1,544	101	1,535	1,389	146	1,569	1,493	76	1,325	1,323	2	8,004	7,545	459	5.74%
50	CA	12,807	12,420	387	11,489	10,966	523	11,079	10,019	1060	11,789	11,132	657	10,440	9,887	553	57,604	54,424	3,180	5.52%
51	HI	433	429	4	340	368	-28	361	360	1	449	373	76	408	354	54	1,991	1,884	107	5.35%
52	TN	2,319	2,437	-118	2,183	2,076	107	2,133	1,894	239	2,065	1,983	82	1,857	1,636	221	10,557	10,026	531	5.03%
53	WY	247	243	4	219	218	1	230	212	18	213	200	13	196	177	19	1,105	1,050	55	4.99%
54	WI	3,010	2,997	13	2,632	2,599	33	2,330	2,196	134	2,720	2,531	189	2,474	2,192	282	13,166	12,514	652	4.95%
55	IA	1,522	1,507	15	1,353	1,316	37	1,291	1,234	57	1,486	1,355	131	1,318	1,226	92	6,970	6,637	333	4.78%
56	WA	2,851	2,859	-8	2,527	2,489	38	2,436	2,254	182	2,453	2,288	165	2,064	1,865	199	12,331	11,755	576	4.67%
57	MA	3,085	2,912	173	2,772	2,703	69	2,569	2,557	12	2,960	2,774	186	2,827	2,633	194	14,213	13,579	634	4.46%
58	NE	793	778	15	710	697	13	720	677	43	771	739	32	725	662	63	3,719	3,553	166	4.45%
59	FL	7,372	7,610	-238	6,006	6,004	2	5,516	5,304	212	5,772	5,314	458	5,158	4,302	856	29,824	28,534	1,290	4.32%
60	OR	1,924	1,837	87	1,529	1,534	-5	1,462	1,378	84	1,525	1,463	62	1,293	1,202	91	7,733	7,414	319	4.13%
61	OH	5,485	5,628	-143	4,823	4,705	118	4,811	4,534	277	5,187	4,940	247	4,926	4,394	532	25,232	24,201	1,031	4.09%
62	MI	4,818	4,839	-21	4,343	4,233	110	4,080	3,849	231	4,486	4,275	211	4,018	3,669	349	21,745	20,865	880	4.05%
63	MT	482	450	32	409	411	-2	437	407	30	407	411	-4	390	366	24	2,125	2,045	80	3.78%
64	CO	2,097	2,130	-33	1,633	1,741	-108	1,682	1,511	171	1,688	1,569	119	1,533	1,372	161	8,633	8,324	309	3.58%
65	SD	378	388	-10	311	316	-5	336	324	12	351	336	15	360	313	47	1,736	1,677	59	3.40%
66	ME	736	741	-5	677	652	25	626	606	20	695	679	16	590	555	35	3,324	3,233	91	2.74%
67	VT	316	312	4	290	294	-4	258	258	0	304	290	14	262	243	19	1,430	1,398	32	2.26%
68	NH	677	678	-1	571	569	2	518	499	19	551	537	14	474	451	23	2,791	2,734	57	2.06%
69	MN	2,887	2,828	59	2,376	2,439	-63	2,259	2,193	66	2,403	2,348	55	2,182	2,097	85	12,107	11,904	203	1.67%
70	ID	585	598	-13	500	502	-2	502	492	10	486	482	4	435	409	26	2,508	2,483	25	1.01%
71	CT	1,524	1,579	-55	1,332	1,460	-128	1,409	1,393	16	1,740	1,616	124	1,552	1,443	109	7,557	7,491	66	0.87%
72	AK	293	313	-20	270	286	-16	240	242	-2	238	259	-21	188	200	-12	1,229	1,300	-71	-5.75%
73		2004			2000			1996			1992			1988			1988-2004 Total			NetUnctd/Cast
74
75
76	Dem-unctd	Ohio 2004				Florida 2000						OH 2004			FL 2000
77	75%	Total	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Total	Gore	Bush	Margin		Unctd	Kerry	Bush		Gore	Bush
78	Recorded	100%	48.7%	50.8%	-2.1%	100%	48.84%	48.85%	-0.01%		50%	52.25%	47.24%		50.49%	47.20%
79	Vote	5,628	2,741	2,859	-118	6,004	2,932	2,933	-0.54		60%	52.70%	46.78%		50.82%	46.87%
80	Net Stuffed	143	0	143	-143	-2	0	-2	2		70%	53.16%	46.33%		51.15%	46.54%
81											75%	53.39%	46.10%		51.32%	46.37%
82	Uncounted	250	188	63	125	200	150	50	100
83	Stuffed	393	0	393	-393	198	0	198	-198
84	Change	-143	188	-331	518	2	150	-148	298
85
86	Adj. Vote	5,485	2,928	2,529	400	6,006	3,082	2,785	297
87	Share		53.39%	46.10%	7.29%		51.32%	46.37%	4.95%
88
89	Unadj ExitP		54.10%	45.50%	8.60%		53.36%	43.61%	9.75%
90	Difference		-0.71%	0.60%	-1.31%		-2.04%	2.76%	-4.80%
91
92		2004	Dem		-13%	2000	Dem		17%
93		Unct/Cast	Unadj	Recorded	abs(Diff)	Unct/Cast	Unadj	Recorded	abs(Diff)
94	UnwtdAvg	2.95%	49.44%	46.51%	3.57%	4.77%	47.59	46.01	3.00
95
96	AK	-6.83%	44.7%	35.5%	9.20%	24.38%	30.96	27.67	3.30
97	AL	8.59%	39.7%	36.8%	2.90%	19.77%	51.75	41.59	10.16
98	AR	7.46%	44.4%	44.5%	0.10%	17.98%	52.20	45.86	6.33
99	AZ	10.09%	46.3%	44.4%	1.90%	14.36%	47.15	44.67	2.47
100	CA	3.02%	53.9%	54.3%	0.40%	13.02%	53.87	53.45	0.42
101	CO	-1.57%	49.3%	47%	2.30%	14.22%	45.35	42.39	2.95
102	CT	-3.61%	62.5%	54.3%	8.20%	7.48%	54.81	55.91	1.10
103	DC	15.56%	90.7%	89.2%	1.50%	11.46%	84.14	85.16	1.01
104	DE	2.60%	63.3%	53.3%	10.00%	13.75%	58.81	54.96	3.84
105	FL	-3.23%	50.8%	47.1%	3.70%	6.68%	53.36	48.84	4.52
106	GA	0.90%	41.8%	41.4%	0.40%	6.62%	49.24	42.98	6.25
107	HI	0.92%	61.3%	54%	7.30%	8.14%	52.24	55.79	3.55
108	IA	0.99%	49.3%	49.2%	0.10%	7.00%	46.12	48.54	2.42
109	ID	-2.22%	27.8%	30.3%	2.50%	8.52%	32.77	27.64	5.13
110	IL	7.02%	56%	54.8%	1.20%	2.80%	56.34	54.60	1.74
111	IN	5.00%	39.5%	39.3%	0.20%	5.72%	45.71	41.01	4.70
112	KS	0.00%	34.2%	36.6%	2.40%	11.25%	39.24	37.24	2.00
113	KY	6.94%	42.4%	39.7%	2.70%	5.00%	41.71	41.37	0.34
114	LA	6.00%	44.2%	42.2%	2.00%	7.03%	48.19	44.88	3.31
115	MA	5.61%	64.7%	61.9%	2.80%	7.51%	60.20	59.80	0.40
116	MD	1.08%	54.8%	55.9%	1.10%	7.90%	61.01	56.57	4.44
117	ME	-0.68%	55.4%	53.6%	1.80%	1.52%	47.33	49.09	1.75
118	MI	-0.44%	53.9%	51.2%	2.70%	2.59%	53.48	51.28	2.21
119	MN	2.04%	56.3%	51.1%	5.20%	6.93%	45.39	47.91	2.51
120	MO	2.98%	50.4%	46.1%	4.30%	6.60%	49.34	47.08	2.26
121	MS	8.79%	45.6%	39.8%	5.80%	5.54%	44.05	40.70	3.34
122	MT	6.64%	39.3%	38.6%	0.70%	1.50%	32.00	33.36	1.36
123	NC	3.79%	46.1%	43.6%	2.50%	6.13%	50.70	43.20	7.50
124	ND	5.15%	31.4%	35.5%	4.10%	4.55%	31.88	33.05	1.18
125	NE	1.89%	36.4%	32.7%	3.70%	-8.22%	29.71	33.25	3.54
126	NH	-0.15%	56.7%	50.2%	6.50%	4.90%	47.21	46.80	0.40
127	NJ	2.19%	59.1%	52.9%	6.20%	0.30%	58.76	56.13	2.64
128	NM	9.68%	53.9%	49%	4.90%	1.27%	48.96	47.91	1.05
129	NV	4.71%	52.4%	47.9%	4.50%	2.77%	48.95	45.98	2.98
130	NY	3.99%	62.1%	58.4%	3.70%	1.51%	59.17	60.21	1.04
131	OH	-2.61%	54.1%	48.7%	5.40%	2.49%	47.39	46.46	0.93
132	OK	5.00%	36.3%	34.4%	1.90%	1.83%	32.08	38.43	6.35
133	OR	4.52%	52.2%	51.3%	0.90%	0.03%	47.00	46.96	0.04
134	PA	1.28%	56.6%	50.9%	5.70%	-0.32%	51.12	50.60	0.52
135	RI	6.42%	63.3%	59.4%	3.90%	2.44%	57.93	60.99	3.05
136	SC	14.80%	47.8%	40.9%	6.90%	2.54%	45.57	40.91	4.67
137	SD	-2.65%	35.1%	38.4%	3.30%	-0.49%	35.33	37.56	2.23
138	TN	-5.09%	41.6%	42.5%	0.90%	-6.64%	54.42	47.28	7.13
139	TX	6.78%	41.5%	38.2%	3.30%	-1.61%	49.53	37.98	11.55
140	UT	9.20%	31.5%	26%	5.50%	3.72%	23.20	26.34	3.15
141	VA	-2.04%	52.7%	45.5%	7.20%	-1.49%	48.56	44.44	4.12
142	VT	1.27%	68.8%	58.9%	9.90%	0.34%	50.65	50.63	0.01
143	WA	-0.28%	56.5%	52.8%	3.70%	-2.64%	52.48	50.13	2.34
144	WI	0.43%	52%	49.7%	2.30%	-0.32%	47.42	47.83	0.41
145	WV	5.26%	41.7%	43.2%	1.50%	-9.57%	43.94	45.59	1.65
146	AK	-6.83%	28.9%	29.1%	0.20%	-5.76%	28.16	27.70	0.46
147


1
2				2008 Early Votes vs. Red Shift
3	Data Source:							% state voting	Correlation of state
4	http://elections.gmu.edu/Early_Voting_2008_Final.html							on paper ballots	Exit Polls	Recorded	RedShift
5	Department of Public and International Affairs							(mail & in-person)	-0.23	-0.07	-0.50
6	George Mason University
7								Unadjusted exit poll red-shift is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail & in-person state voting (paper ballot). In other words, red-shift is lower in states with a high percentage of paper ballots.
8
9															X=(P-T*N)/(1-T)
10	United States	Mail+ Early / Total Votes	Mail Ballots / Early Votes	Vote for Pres	Total Ballots Cast	Mail Ballots	Early In-Person Votes	Total Mail & Early In-Person Votes	Obama Unadj Exit Poll	Recorded	Total Wtd Red Shift	Unwtd Red Shift
11	Total	30.63%	31.65%	131,256,905	132,580,096	12,852,033	14,150,980	40,607,804	58.16	52.88	5.29	Moving Average		Exit Poll	Elect Day (X)	Recorded	Diff	Election Day	Mail/Early	Early Vote	Total Votes
12		sort											Total	58.2	50.5	52.9	7.7	90,649	40,608	30.94%	131,257
13	Alabama	4.1%		2,099,819	2,105,622			87,284	52.00	38.7	13.30	13.30	Alabama	52.0	38.1	38.7	13.9	2,013	87	4%	2,100	2
14	Alaska	30%		326,197	327,341			98,159	49.08	37.9	11.18	12.24	Alaska	49.1	33.1	37.9	16.0	228	98	30%	326	0
15	Arizona	52.9%		2,293,475	2,320,851			1,227,267	51.42	44.9	6.52	10.33	Arizona	51.4	37.6	44.9	13.8	1,066	1,227	54%	2,293	2
16	Arkansas	37.1%	18.1%	1,086,617	1,095,958	73,640	24,519	406,139	46.00	38.9	7.10	9.53	Arkansas	46.0	34.7	38.9	11.3	680	406	37%	1,087	1
17	California	44.8%	96%	13,561,900	13,743,177	5,916,705	246,042	6,162,747	67.00	61	6.00	8.82	California	67.0	56.1	61.0	10.9	7,399	6,163	45%	13,562	14
18	Colorado	78.9%	80.7%	2,401,361		1,528,458	365,237	1,893,695	51.91	53.7	-1.79	7.05	Colorado	51.9	60.4	53.7	-8.5	508	1,894	79%	2,401	2
19	Connecticut	10.4%		1,646,792				171,551	73.38	60.6	12.78	7.87	Connecticut	73.4	59.1	60.6	14.3	1,475	172	10%	1,647	2
20	Delaware	5.2%		412,398				21,450	68.61	61.9	6.71	7.73	Delaware	68.6	61.5	61.9	7.1	391	21	5%	412	0
21	Distr of Col	10.5%		265,853	266,871			27,955	92.03	92.5	-0.47	6.82	Distr of Col	92.0	92.6	92.5	-0.5	238	28	11%	266	0
22	Florida	51.8%	40%	8,390,744	8,453,743	1,751,277	2,630,416	4,381,693	52.09	50.9	1.19	6.25	Florida	52.1	49.6	50.9	2.5	4,009	4,382	52%	8,391	8
23	Georgia	53.1%	14.4%	3,924,440		300,016	1,784,163	2,084,179	51.11	46.9	4.21	6.07	Georgia	51.1	42.1	46.9	9.0	1,840	2,084	53%	3,924	4
24	Hawaii	38.5%	60.3%	453,568	456,064	105,866	69,660	175,526	70.39	71.8	-1.41	5.44	Hawaii	70.4	72.7	71.8	-2.3	278	176	39%	454	0
25	Idaho	29.6%		655,032	667,506			197,368	41.83	36	5.83	5.47	Idaho	41.8	33.5	36.0	8.3	458	197	30%	655	1
26	Illinois	8.7%		5,523,051	5,578,195			486,793	66.31	61.9	4.41	5.40	Illinois	66.3	61.5	61.9	4.8	5,036	487	9%	5,523	6
27	Indiana	23.6%		2,751,054	2,805,986			662,443	55.66	49.9	5.76	5.42	Indiana	55.7	48.1	49.9	7.5	2,089	662	24%	2,751	3
28	Iowa	36%		1,537,123	1,546,453			557,333	56.90	53.9	3.00	5.27	Iowa	56.9	52.2	53.9	4.7	980	557	36%	1,537	2
29	Kansas	34.7%		1,235,872				428,772	46.13	41.6	4.53	5.23	Kansas	46.1	39.2	41.6	6.9	807	429	35%	1,236	1
30	Kentucky	6.3%		1,826,508				115,916	46.81	41.1	5.71	5.25	Kentucky	46.8	40.7	41.1	6.1	1,711	116	6%	1,827	2
31	Louisiana	14.7%	12.9%	1,960,761	1,979,852	37,802	254,212	292,014	45.94	39.9	6.04	5.29	Louisiana	45.9	38.9	39.9	7.1	1,669	292	15%	1,961	2
32	Maine	31.3%	49.3%	731,163	744,456	114,981	118,378	233,359	62.05	57.7	4.35	5.25	Maine	62.1	55.7	57.7	6.3	498	233	32%	731	1
33	Maryland	7.9%		2,631,596	2,651,428			208,201	67.20	61.9	5.30	5.25	Maryland	67.2	61.4	61.9	5.8	2,423	208	8%	2,632	3
34	Massachusetts	6.5%		3,080,985	3,102,995	202,421		202,421	67.01	61.8	5.21	5.25	Massachusetts	67.0	61.4	61.8	5.6	2,879	202	7%	3,081	3
35	Michigan	20.4%		5,001,766	5,039,080			1,029,149	62.21	57.4	4.81	5.23	Michigan	62.2	56.2	57.4	6.0	3,973	1,029	21%	5,002	5
36	Minnesota	10%		2,910,369	2,921,147			292,535	61.86	54.1	7.76	5.33	Minnesota	61.9	53.2	54.1	8.6	2,618	293	10%	2,910	3
37	Mississippi	2.9%	9.9%	1,289,856		33,689	3,715	37,404	48.43	43	5.43	5.34	Mississippi	48.4	42.8	43.0	5.6	1,252	37	3%	1,290	1
38	Missouri	11.1%		2,925,205				323,776	57.50	49.3	8.20	5.45	Missouri	57.5	48.3	49.3	9.2	2,601	324	11%	2,925	3
39	Montana	39.7%		491,960	497,599			197,505	54.37	47.2	7.17	5.51	Montana	54.4	42.5	47.2	11.9	294	198	40%	492	0
40	Nebraska	21.8%		801,281	811,923			176,946	49.24	41.6	7.64	5.59	Nebraska	49.2	39.5	41.6	9.8	624	177	22%	801	1
41	Nevada	66.9%	13.5%	967,848	970,019	87,337	561,772	649,109	56.34	55.1	1.24	5.44	Nevada	56.3	52.6	55.1	3.7	319	649	67%	968	1
42	New Hampshire	10%		710,970	719,643			72,056	61.65	54.1	7.55	5.51	New Hampshire	61.6	53.3	54.1	8.4	639	72	10%	711	1
43	New Jersey	7.4%		3,868,237	3,910,220			287,475	63.84	57.2	6.64	5.55	New Jersey	63.8	56.7	57.2	7.2	3,581	287	7%	3,868	4
44	New Mexico	62.3%	33.1%	830,158	833,365	172,136	347,159	519,295	58.82	56.9	1.92	5.43	New Mexico	58.8	53.7	56.9	5.1	311	519	63%	830	1
45	New York	3.6%		7,594,813	7,674,784			279,468	71.54	62.8	8.74	5.53	New York	71.5	62.5	62.8	9.1	7,315	279	4%	7,595	8
46	North Carolina	60.6%	8.6%	4,310,789	4,354,571	227,799	2,411,116	2,638,915	53.52	49.7	3.82	5.48	North Carolina	53.5	43.8	49.7	9.7	1,672	2,639	61%	4,311	4
47	North Dakota	37.2%	64%	316,621	321,133	76,531	42,989	119,520	38.88	44.5	-5.62	5.16	North Dakota	38.9	47.8	44.5	-9.0	197	120	38%	317	0
48	Ohio	25.2%		5,698,260	5,773,387			1,456,364	56.28	51.4	4.88	5.16	Ohio	56.3	49.8	51.4	6.5	4,242	1,456	26%	5,698	6
49	Oklahoma	13%		1,462,661				189,775	40.62	34.4	6.22	5.18	Oklahoma	40.6	33.5	34.4	7.2	1,273	190	13%	1,463	1
50	Oregon	100%	100%	1,827,864	1,845,251	1,845,251		1,845,251	58.45	56.7	1.75	5.09	Oregon	58.4	58.5	56.7	0.0	-17	1,845	101%	1,828	2
51	Pennsylvania	3.9%		6,012,692				235,258	63.77	54.5	9.27	5.20	Pennsylvania	63.8	54.1	54.5	9.6	5,777	235	4%	6,013	6
52	Rhode Island	5.1%		469,767				23,735	67.47	63.1	4.37	5.18	Rhode Island	67.5	62.9	63.1	4.6	446	24	5%	470	0
53	South Carolina	17.4%		1,920,969	1,927,153			334,093	47.55	44.9	2.65	5.12	South Carolina	47.5	44.3	44.9	3.2	1,587	334	17%	1,921	2
54	South Dakota	25.2%		381,975	387,449			97,582	48.72	44.7	4.02	5.09	South Dakota	48.7	43.3	44.7	5.4	284	98	26%	382	0
55	Tennessee	59.2%	4.1%	2,599,749	2,618,238	63,929	1,515,843	1,550,939	47.67	41.8	5.87	5.11	Tennessee	47.7	33.3	41.8	14.4	1,049	1,551	60%	2,600	3
56	Texas	44%	5.9%	8,077,795		209,805	3,346,351	3,556,156	46.22	43.6	2.62	5.05	Texas	46.2	41.5	43.6	4.7	4,522	3,556	44%	8,078	8
57	Utah	37.1%	23.9%	952,370	971,185	85,981	274,354	360,335	31.53	34.3	-2.77	4.88	Utah	31.5	35.9	34.3	-4.4	592	360	38%	952	1
58	Vermont	29%		325,046	326,822			94,668	71.46	67.5	3.96	4.86	Vermont	71.5	65.9	67.5	5.6	230	95	29%	325	0
59	Virginia	13.5%		3,723,260	3,753,059			506,672	62.49	52.6	9.89	4.97	Virginia	62.5	51.1	52.6	11.4	3,217	507	14%	3,723	4
60	Washington	89.2%		3,036,878	3,071,587			2,740,065	57.94	57.4	0.54	4.88	Washington	57.9	53.0	57.4	5.0	297	2,740	90%	3,037	3
61	West Virginia	23.7%	10.6%	713,362	731,691	18,409	155,054	173,463	45.14	42.6	2.54	4.83	West Virginia	45.1	41.8	42.6	3.3	540	173	24%	713	1
62	Wisconsin	21.2%		2,983,417				633,600	63.30	56.2	7.10	4.87	Wisconsin	63.3	54.3	56.2	9.0	2,350	634	21%	2,983	3
63	Wyoming	25.2%		254,658	256,035			64,430	34.06	32.5	1.56	4.81	Wyoming	34.1	32.0	32.5	2.1	190	64	25%	255	0
64
65		As the percentage of early votes decreases, the red-shift increases	Red-shift = Obama unadjusted exit poll - recorded vote
66		Early/ VBM	Red-shift	MovAv R/S	Abs shift	Abs MAShift	Abs MA/ Early	Red-shift
67
68	Alabama	4.1%	13.30%	13.30%	13.30%	13.30%	324.48%	13.30%
69	Alaska	30%	11.18%	12.24%	11.18%	12.24%	40.80%	11.18%
70	Arizona	52.9%	6.52%	10.33%	6.52%	10.33%	19.53%	6.52%
71	Arkansas	37.1%	7.10%	9.53%	7.10%	9.53%	25.68%	7.10%
72	California	44.8%	6.00%	8.82%	6.00%	8.82%	19.69%	6.00%
73	Colorado	78.9%	-1.79%	7.05%	1.79%	7.65%	9.69%	-1.79%
74	Connecticut	10.4%	12.78%	7.87%	12.78%	8.38%	80.59%	12.78%
75	Delaware	5.2%	6.71%	7.73%	6.71%	8.17%	157.16%	6.71%
76	Distr of Col	10.5%	-0.47%	6.82%	0.47%	7.32%	69.68%	-0.47%
77	Florida	51.8%	1.19%	6.25%	1.19%	6.70%	12.94%	1.19%
78	Georgia	53.1%	4.21%	6.07%	4.21%	6.48%	12.20%	4.21%
79	Hawaii	38.5%	-1.41%	5.44%	1.41%	6.05%	15.73%	-1.41%
80	Idaho	29.6%	5.83%	5.47%	5.83%	6.04%	20.40%	5.83%
81	Illinois	8.7%	4.41%	5.40%	4.41%	5.92%	68.06%	4.41%
82	Indiana	23.6%	5.76%	5.42%	5.76%	5.91%	25.04%	5.76%
83	Iowa	36%	3.00%	5.27%	3.00%	5.73%	15.91%	3.00%
84	Kansas	34.7%	4.53%	5.23%	4.53%	5.66%	16.30%	4.53%
85	Kentucky	6.3%	5.71%	5.25%	5.71%	5.66%	89.84%	5.71%
86	Louisiana	14.7%	6.04%	5.29%	6.04%	5.68%	38.64%	6.04%
87	Maine	31.3%	4.35%	5.25%	4.35%	5.61%	17.93%	4.35%
88	Maryland	7.9%	5.30%	5.25%	5.30%	5.60%	70.87%	5.30%
89	Massachusetts	6.5%	5.21%	5.25%	5.21%	5.58%	85.87%	5.21%
90	Michigan	20.4%	4.81%	5.23%	4.81%	5.55%	27.19%	4.81%
91	Minnesota	10%	7.76%	5.33%	7.76%	5.64%	56.40%	7.76%
92	Mississippi	2.9%	5.43%	5.34%	5.43%	5.63%	194.20%	5.43%
93	Missouri	11.1%	8.20%	5.45%	8.20%	5.73%	51.63%	8.20%
94	Montana	39.7%	7.17%	5.51%	7.17%	5.78%	14.57%	7.17%
95	Nebraska	21.8%	7.64%	5.59%	7.64%	5.85%	26.84%	7.64%
96	Nevada	66.9%	1.24%	5.44%	1.24%	5.69%	8.51%	1.24%
97	New Hampshire	10%	7.55%	5.51%	7.55%	5.75%	57.53%	7.55%
98	New Jersey	7.4%	6.64%	5.55%	6.64%	5.78%	78.13%	6.64%
99	New Mexico	62.3%	1.92%	5.43%	1.92%	5.66%	9.09%	1.92%
100	New York	3.6%	8.74%	5.53%	8.74%	5.75%	159.84%	8.74%
101	North Carolina	60.6%	3.82%	5.48%	3.82%	5.70%	9.40%	3.82%
102	North Dakota	37.2%	-5.62%	5.16%	5.62%	5.70%	15.31%	-5.62%
103	Ohio	25.2%	4.88%	5.16%	4.88%	5.67%	22.51%	4.88%
104	Oklahoma	13%	6.22%	5.18%	6.22%	5.69%	43.75%	6.22%
105	Oregon	100%	1.75%	5.09%	1.75%	5.58%	5.58%	1.75%
106	Pennsylvania	3.9%	9.27%	5.20%	9.27%	5.68%	145.59%	9.27%
107	Rhode Island	5.1%	4.37%	5.18%	4.37%	5.65%	110.69%	4.37%
108	South Carolina	17.4%	2.65%	5.12%	2.65%	5.57%	32.02%	2.65%
109	South Dakota	25.2%	4.02%	5.09%	4.02%	5.54%	21.97%	4.02%
110	Tennessee	59.2%	5.87%	5.11%	5.87%	5.54%	9.36%	5.87%
111	Texas	44%	2.62%	5.05%	2.62%	5.48%	12.45%	2.62%
112	Utah	37.1%	-2.77%	4.88%	2.77%	5.42%	14.60%	-2.77%
113	Vermont	29%	3.96%	4.86%	3.96%	5.38%	18.57%	3.96%
114	Virginia	13.5%	9.89%	4.97%	9.89%	5.48%	40.60%	9.89%
115	Washington	89.2%	0.54%	4.88%	0.54%	5.38%	6.03%	0.54%
116	West Virginia	23.7%	2.54%	4.83%	2.54%	5.32%	22.45%	2.54%
117	Wisconsin	21.2%	7.10%	4.87%	7.10%	5.36%	25.26%	7.10%
118	Wyoming	25.2%	1.56%	4.81%	1.56%	5.28%	20.96%	1.56%
119


1		RECORDED STATE ELECTION DAY VOTES BY 2004 MACHINE TYPE
2
3			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase	Bush %Net Increase
4		Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
5	Paper	4,737	1,518	653	819	46	43%	53.9%	3%	1,879	828	1,043	8	44.1%	56.1%	0.39%	104	156	-39	15.93%	19.05%	52	1.1%	0
6	Opscan	66,451	33,078	15,318	16,827	933	46.3%	50.9%	2.8%	41,411	19,525	21,776	111	47.1%	52.6%	0.27%	2,218	3,669	-825	14.48%	21.80%	1,450	0.9%	303
7	Lever	26,698	13,977	7,608	5,886	483	54.4%	42.1%	3.5%	15,663	8,279	7,259	125	52.9%	46.3%	0.8%	658	1,363	-358	8.65%	23.16%	706	5.8%	243
8	Punch	26,083	11,306	5,494	5,554	258	48.6%	49.1%	2.3%	13,037	6,384	6,638	15	49%	50.9%	0.12%	890	1,084	-243	16.20%	19.52%	194	1.4%	213
9	DRE	46,551	28,875	14,166	14,123	585	49.1%	48.9%	2%	33,467	16,178	17,198	91	48.3%	51.4%	0.27%	2,012	3,074	-495	14.20%	21.77%	1,062	3.2%	1171
10	Other	14,304	7,963	3,497	4,196	269	43.9%	52.7%	3.4%	10,550	4,905	5,592	53	46.5%	53%	0.5%	601	801	-232	17.19%	19.09%	200	-2.3%	36
11
12	Initial	184,824	96,717	46,737	47,406	2,574	48.3%	49%	2.7%	116,008	56,099	59,505	404	48.4%	51.3%	0.35%	6,483	10,147	-2,191	13.87%	21.40%	3,664	2.2%	1966
13	Recorded		104,298	51,004	50,459	2,834	48.9%	48.4%	2.7%	122,287	59,027	62,040	1,220	48.3%	50.7%	1%	8,023	11,581	-1,614	15.73%	22.95%	3,558	3%
14	Diff		7,581	4,267	3,054	260	56.29%	40.28%	3.43%	6,279	2,928	2,535	816	38.62%	33.44%	10.76%	1,540	1,434	577	1.86%	1.55%	-106	0.74%
15		2-party	Diff	58.28%							53.60%
16
17										PAPER
18			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
19	State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
20	AR	253	44	20	22	1.2	46.7%	50.6%	2.7%	46	21	25	0.3	44.7%	54.7%	0.6%	0.1	3	-0.9	0%	13%	2.9	6.1%	0
21	CO	44	8	2	6	0.3	25.4%	71.4%	3.2%	8	2	6	0	25.7%	73.7%	0.5%	0.1	0.3	-0.2	3%	5%	0.2	2%	0
22	ID	145	43	9	32	2.2	20.2%	74.7%	5.1%	48	12	36	0	25%	75%	0%	3.3	4	-2.2	39%	13%	0.7	-4.5%	0
23	KS	300	39	9	28	1.1	23.7%	73.4%	2.9%	39	9	30	0.3	22.1%	77.1%	0.8%	-0.5	1.8	-0.8	-6%	6%	2.3	5.3%	0
24	MI	237	174	88	83	3	50.5%	47.8%	1.7%	195	95	98	0.9	49%	50.6%	0.5%	7.6	15.4	-2.1	9%	19%	7.7	4.3%	0
25	MN	1093	476	229	223	24.3	48%	46.9%	5.1%	557	282	271	3.8	50.6%	48.7%	0.7%	52.9	48.1	-20.5	23%	22%	-4.8	-0.7%	0
26	MO	858	164	114	47	3.1	69.5%	28.6%	1.9%	182	129	52	0	71.1%	28.9%	0%	15.5	5.6	-3.1	14%	12%	-9.9	-1.4%	0
27	MT	144	28	7	21	0.9	23.3%	73.5%	3.2%	29	8	21	0.3	27.5%	71.4%	1.1%	1.4	0	-0.6	22%	0%	-1.4	-6.4%	0
28	NE	5	1	0	1	0	15.9%	82.2%	1.9%	1	0	1	0	14.8%	84.3%	0.9%	0	0	0	-6%	3%	0	3.3%	0
29	NC	17	7	3	4	0	41.5%	58.5%	0%	8	3	5	0	39%	61%	0%	0.1	0.6	0	4%	15%	0.5	5.1%	0
30	ND	63	8	2	5	0.2	29.5%	68%	2.5%	9	3	5	0.1	35.4%	63.2%	1.4%	0.7	0.1	-0.1	31%	1%	-0.7	-10.7%	0
31	PA	195	84	30	52	1.9	36.2%	61.5%	2.3%	97	33	64	0	33.8%	66.2%	0%	2.2	12.2	-1.9	7%	24%	10	7.1%	0
32	SD	157	22	8	14	0	35%	65%	0%	27	11	16	0.2	39.8%	59.3%	0.9%	3	1.6	0.2	39%	11%	-1.4	-10.6%	0
33	TX	913	329	95	229	5.3	28.9%	69.5%	1.6%	392	109	282	0	27.9%	72.1%	0%	14.3	53.8	-5.3	15%	24%	39.4	3.5%	0
34	UT	3	0	0	0	0	23.9%	72.8%	3.3%	0	0	0	0	21.7%	77%	1.2%	0	0.1	0	4%	21%	0.1	6.5%	0
35	VA	20	4	1	3	0.1	33.5%	64.7%	1.8%	4	1	3	0	34.6%	65.4%	0%	0.1	0.1	-0.1	9%	6%	0	-0.5%	0
36	WV	178	48	20	28	0.6	40.9%	57.9%	1.2%	54	20	34	0.2	37.5%	62.1%	0.4%	0.8	6	-0.4	4%	22%	5.2	7.6%	0
37	WI	74	22	11	10	1.1	49.4%	45.5%	5.1%	25	13	12	0.2	52.1%	47.3%	0.6%	2.3	1.9	-1	21%	19%	-0.4	-1.1%	0
38	WY	38	18	6	11	0.5	34.2%	62.9%	2.9%	19	6	12	0.2	31.4%	67.2%	1.3%	-0.2	1.3	-0.3	-4%	12%	1.5	7.1%	0
39	NH									141	71	69	1.1	50.4%	48.8%	0.8%
40
41	TOTAL	4737	1518	653	819	46	43%	53.9%	3%	1879	828	1043	8	44.1%	56.1%	0.4%	104	156	-39	15.9%	19%	52.1	1.6%	0
42
43
44									OPTICAL SCANNERS
45			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
46	State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
47	AL	2522	1575	673	886	17	42.7%	56.2%	1.1%	1776	668	1102	6.2	37.6%	62%	0.4%	-5	216	-11	-1%	24%	220.8	10.9%	13
48	AZ	2027	1321	609	672	40	46.1%	50.9%	3%	1644	735	908	0	44.7%	55.3%	0%	127	236	-40	21%	35%	109.4	5.7%	41
49	AR	1583	590	280	296	14	47.5%	50.2%	2.3%	661	308	349	3.5	46.7%	52.8%	0.5%	28	53	-10	10%	18%	24.5	3.4%	1
50	CA	17606	6491	3651	2578	262	56.2%	39.7%	4%	6724	3866	2858	0	57.5%	42.5%	0%	215	280	-262	6%	11%	64.8	1.5%	60
51	CO	2404	1267	509	689	69	40.2%	54.4%	5.4%	1519	671	839	9	44.2%	55.2%	0.6%	162	150	-60	32%	22%	-11.8	-3.1%	15
52	FL	2806	2831	1253	1535	44	44.2%	54.2%	1.5%	3728	1575	2137	15.5	42.3%	57.3%	0.4%	323	602	-28	26%	39%	279.5	5.1%	81
53	HI	336	365	205	138	22	56.3%	37.8%	5.9%	425	231	194	0	54.4%	45.6%	0%	26	56	-22	13%	41%	30.2	9.7%	2
54	ID	315	158	45	109	5	28.1%	68.8%	3%	189	55	134	0	29.2%	70.8%	0%	11	25	-5	24%	23%	14.3	0.9%	0
55	IL	3452	1452	660	761	31	45.4%	52.4%	2.1%	1606	727	879	0	45.2%	54.8%	0%	67	118	-31	10%	15%	51.3	2.5%	6
56	IA	1811	1144	569	548	26	49.8%	47.9%	2.3%	1308	656	647	5.2	50.1%	49.5%	0.4%	86	99	-21	15%	18%	12.3	1.2%	5
57	KS	2299	606	234	349	23	38.6%	57.6%	3.8%	655	245	404	5.8	37.5%	61.7%	0.9%	12	55	-17	5%	16%	43	5.1%	1
58	MI	2317	1735	832	863	40	48%	49.7%	2.3%	2008	960	1038	10.8	47.8%	51.7%	0.5%	128	175	-29	15%	20%	46.6	2.1%	3
59	MN	2983	1929	939	887	102	48.7%	46%	5.3%	2250	1162	1074	14.7	51.6%	47.7%	0.7%	223	187	-88	24%	21%	-35.7	-1.2%	6
60	MS	1773	811	330	474	7	40.7%	58.5%	0.8%	953	381	570	2.6	39.9%	59.8%	0.3%	51	96	-4	15%	20%	45.1	2.1%	11
61	MO	634	372	152	214	5	41%	57.6%	1.4%	456	176	280	0	38.6%	61.4%	0%	20	66	-5	13%	31%	46.1	6.2%	0
62	MT	629	325	118	187	21	36.2%	57.4%	6.5%	361	148	208	5.1	41%	57.6%	1.4%	30	21	-16	26%	11%	-9	-4.6%	0
63	NE	2227	8	2	6	0	28.5%	69.4%	2%	9	2	7	0.1	24.8%	74.5%	0.7%	0	1	0	-1%	22%	1.3	8.7%	0
64	NM	202	62	23	38	1	37%	61.1%	1.9%	72	25	47	0.4	34.6%	64.9%	0.5%	2	9	-1	8%	23%	6.8	6.2%	0
65	NC	1159	1205	550	655	0	45.7%	54.3%	0%	1458	662	796	0	45.4%	54.6%	0%	111	141	0	20%	22%	30	0.6%	8
66	ND	633	273	94	170	9	34.3%	62.3%	3.4%	302	108	191	3.6	35.7%	63.1%	1.2%	14	20	-6	15%	12%	6.3	-0.6%	0
67	OH	1652	553	242	299	13	43.8%	53.9%	2.3%	658	294	364	0	44.7%	55.3%	0%	52	65	-13	21%	22%	13.7	0.5%	31
68	OK	2202	1219	474	744	0	38.9%	61.1%	0%	1464	504	960	0	34.4%	65.6%	0%	30	215	0	6%	29%	185.6	9%	4
69	OR	404	273	126	136	11	46.2%	49.9%	3.9%	315	155	160	0	49.3%	50.7%	0%	29	24	-11	23%	17%	-5.6	-2.3%	0
70	PA	1257	562	211	339	12	37.6%	60.3%	2.1%	646	238	408	0	36.8%	63.2%	0%	27	69	-12	13%	20%	42.8	3.7%	1
71	SC	366	183	90	91	2	49.1%	49.9%	1%	214	107	106	0.5	50.1%	49.6%	0.3%	17	15	-1	19%	16%	-2.3	-1.2%	2
72	TN	291	205	95	109	1	46.4%	53.4%	0.3%	239	102	137	0.9	42.5%	57.1%	0.4%	6	27	0	7%	25%	20.8	7.7%	1
73	TX	4175	2948	1054	1850	44	35.8%	62.8%	1.5%	3435	1172	2263	0	34.1%	65.9%	0%	119	413	-44	11%	22%	294	4.7%	6
74	VA	185	226	89	133	4	39.3%	58.7%	2%	286	115	171	0	40.3%	59.7%	0%	27	39	-4	30%	29%	11.9	0%	0
75	WA	4834	1433	766	607	60	53.5%	42.4%	4.2%	1756	983	759	14	56%	43.2%	0.8%	217	152	-46	28%	25%	-64.7	-1.6%	1
76	WV	912	261	115	141	5	44.1%	54.1%	1.8%	305	127	177	1.8	41.6%	57.8%	0.6%	12	35	-3	10%	25%	23.4	6.2%	2
77	WI	142	65	31	32	2	47%	49.5%	3.5%	75	36	38	0.5	48.1%	51.2%	0.6%	5	6	-2	17%	19%	0.7	0.7%	0
78	WY	313	155	47	105	3	30.2%	67.7%	2.1%	177	56	119	2.1	31.6%	67.2%	1.2%	9	14	-1	20%	13%	4.7	-2%	1
79	MA									2728	1712	1015	0	62.8%	37.2%	0%
80	NH									534	269	262	3.3	50.3%	49%	0.6%
81	VT									5	3	2	0.1	54.7%	44.4%	1%
82	DC		201	172	18	11	85.7%	9%	5.3%	226	203	21	1.5	89.9%	9.4%	0.7%	31	3	-9	18%	18%	-27.9	-3.8%
83	AK		275	79	167	29	28.7%	60.8%	10.4%	242	86	152	3.9	35.6%	62.8%	1.6%	7	-16	-25	8.9%	-9.3%	-22.6	-4.9%
84
85	TOTAL	66451	33078	15318	16827	933	46.3%	50.9%	2.8%	41411	19525	21776	111	47.1%	52.6%	0.3%	2218	3669	-825	14.5%	21.8%	1450	0.9%	303
86
87
88										LEVER
89			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
90	State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
91	AR	180	83	40	40	3	47.9%	48.8%	3.3%	96	45	50	0.8	47.3%	51.9%	0.8%	6	9	-2	14%	23%	3.7	3.7%	1
92	CT	809	1448	808	578	62	55.8%	39.9%	4.3%	1544	846	685	12.8	54.8%	44.4%	0.8%	38	107	-49	5%	18%	68.4	5.4%	0
93	KY	70	24	7	16	0	30.9%	68.5%	0.6%	28	10	17	0.1	36.9%	62.7%	0.4%	3	1	0	39%	7%	-1.8	-11.8%	0
94	LA	2348	948	388	550	11	40.9%	58%	1.1%	1047	392	652	3.7	37.4%	62.3%	0.3%	4	102	-7	1%	19%	97.8	7.7%	0
95	MI	614	446	218	220	8	48.7%	49.4%	1.9%	516	246	267	2.8	47.7%	51.7%	0.5%	29	47	-6	13%	21%	18	3.4%	1
96	NJ	1558	786	478	285	23	60.8%	36.2%	2.9%	873	500	369	4.3	57.2%	42.3%	0.5%	22	84	-19	5%	30%	62.8	9.7%	17
97	NY	15003	6031	3629	2111	291	60.2%	35%	4.8%	6628	3877	2650	100.1	58.5%	40%	1.5%	247	540	-191	7%	26%	292.5	6.7%	175
98	NC	49	39	19	20	0	49.7%	50.3%	0%	50	24	26	0	47.5%	52.5%	0%	5	7	0	23%	35%	2.3	4.4%	0
99	PA	4203	2373	1187	1133	53	50%	47.8%	2.2%	2747	1370	1377	0	49.9%	50.1%	0%	183	244	-53	15%	21%	60.6	2.5%	49
100	TN	206	95	45	50	0	47%	52.7%	0.3%	110	45	65	0.4	40.6%	59.1%	0.3%	0	15	0	0%	30%	15	12.8%	0
101	TX	131	124	67	56	1	54%	45.1%	0.9%	144	72	72	0	49.8%	50.2%	0%	5	16	-1	7%	29%	11.6	9.3%	0
102	VA	1387	1528	698	800	30	45.7%	52.4%	1.9%	1801	815	987	0	45.2%	54.8%	0%	118	187	-30	17%	23%	69.1	2.8%	0
103	WV	118	44	23	20	1	52.5%	46.2%	1.3%	47	23	24	0.2	48.9%	50.6%	0.5%	0	3	0	0%	17%	3.5	7.9%
104	WY	22	8	1	6	0	18.1%	80.1%	1.8%	8	2	6	0.1	19.7%	79.5%	0.9%	0	0	0	17%	7%	0.2	-2.2%	0
105	MA									24.4	13.1	11.3	0	53.8%	46.2%
106
107	TOTAL	26698	13977	7608	5886	483	54.4%	42.1%	3.5%	15663	8279	7259	125	52.9%	46.3%	0.8%	658	1363	-358	8.6%	23.1%	706	5.8%	243
108
109
110										PUNCH
111			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
112	State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
113	AR	238	78	34	42	2	43.3%	54%	2.7%	91	37	54	0.6	40.3%	59.1%	0.7%	3	12	-2	9%	28%	8.8	8.1%	0
114	CA	1278	443	206	219	18	46.6%	49.3%	4.1%	435	208	227	0	47.8%	52.2%	0%	1	8	-18	1%	4%	6.8	1.6%	0
115	CO	22	14	4	9	1	28.9%	66.4%	4.7%	16	5	11	0.1	29.7%	69.7%	0.6%	1	2	-1	17%	19%	1.1	2.5%	0
116	ID	477	292	85	195	12	29.1%	66.8%	4.1%	352	114	239	0	32.3%	67.7%	0%	29	44	-12	34%	22%	14.7	-2.3%	0
117	IL	6764	2599	1622	917	60	62.4%	35.3%	2.3%	2813	1779	1034	0	63.2%	36.8%	0%	157	117	-60	10%	13%	-39.4	0.7%	85
118	IN	766	314	134	179	0	42.9%	57.1%	0%	345	136	209	0	39.4%	60.6%	0%	2	30	0	1%	17%	28.1	6.8%	0
119	MI	1214	1013	471	522	20	46.5%	51.6%	2%	1149	542	602	5.4	47.1%	52.4%	0.5%	71	80	-14	15%	15%	9	0.2%	11
120	MS	204	79	29	50	1	36.2%	62.9%	0.9%	91	30	61	0.3	33.3%	66.4%	0.3%	2	11	0	7%	23%	9.3	6.5%	0
121	MO	1627	829	388	427	13	46.9%	51.5%	1.6%	960	429	531	0	44.7%	55.3%	0%	44	104	-13	11%	24%	60.3	6%	3
122	MT	93	48	13	32	3	27.2%	67.4%	5.4%	54	17	36	0.7	31.6%	67.1%	1.3%	4	4	-2	32%	13%	0.1	-4.8%	2
123	NC	201	225	92	133	0	41%	59%	0%	265	108	157	0	40.9%	59.1%	0%	16	24	0	17%	18%	7.7	0.2%	9
124	OH	8897	3281	1535	1662	84	46.8%	50.7%	2.6%	3939	1914	2026	0	48.6%	51.4%	0%	378	364	-84	25%	22%	-14.8	-1%	101
125	PA	1030	573	248	313	12	43.3%	54.5%	2.2%	686	301	385	0	43.9%	56.1%	0%	53	72	-12	21%	23%	19.5	1%	1
126	TN	352	179	86	92	0	48.3%	51.4%	0.3%	239	101	137	0.8	42.3%	57.4%	0.3%	15	45	0	17%	49%	30.4	11.9%	0
127	TX	414	357	125	227	4	35.1%	63.7%	1.2%	400	132	268	0	33%	67%	0%	7	40	-4	5%	18%	33.6	5.3%	1
128	UT	20	7	3	4	0	44.6%	50.9%	4.4%	8	3	5	0.1	40.6%	58.4%	1%	0	1	0	3%	29%	1	11.5%	0
129	VA	155	224	87	133	4	39%	59.4%	1.6%	257	107	150	0	41.6%	58.4%	0%	20	17	-4	23%	13%	-2.5	-3.7%	0
130	WA	1622	497	217	260	21	43.5%	52.3%	4.2%	627	291	331	5.6	46.3%	52.8%	0.9%	74	71	-15	34%	27%	-3.3	-2.3%	0
131	WV	618	228	107	117	4	47.1%	51.3%	1.6%	275	123	151	1.3	44.7%	54.8%	0.5%	16	34	-2	15%	29%	18	5.8%	0
132	WY	91	27	5	22	1	18.8%	79.1%	2%	31	6	25	0.3	19.7%	79.4%	0.9%	1	3	0	20%	15%	2.3	-0.6%	0
133
134	TOTAL	26083	11306	5494	5554	258	48.6%	49.1%	2.3%	13037	6384	6638	15.2	49%	50.9%	0.1%	890	1084	-243	16.2%	19.5%	194	1.4%	213
135
136
137										DRE
138			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
139	State	Prct	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
140	AL	97	83	24	58	1	29%	69.6%	1.5%	100	25	74	0.5	25.3%	74.3%	0.5%	1	16	-1	4%	28%	15	8.4%	1
141	AR	152	46	21	24	1	45%	51.9%	3.1%	50	22	28	0.2	44.1%	55.4%	0.5%	1	4	-1	7%	16%	2.5	4.4%	0
142	CA	6818	2749	1398	1259	92	50.9%	45.8%	3.4%	2671	1353	1318	0	50.7%	49.3%	0%	-45	59	-92	-3%	5%	104.3	3.8%	44
143	CO	939	427	223	181	22	52.4%	42.5%	5.1%	475	272	200	2.9	57.2%	42.2%	0.6%	48	19	-19	22%	10%	-29.5	-5.2%	26
144	DE	400	326	181	137	8	55.4%	42%	2.5%	374	200	172	2.2	53.5%	45.9%	0.6%	19	34	-6	11%	25%	15.2	5.8%	0
145	FL	3078	3078	1658	1376	44	53.9%	44.7%	1.4%	3835	1999	1819	17.4	52.1%	47.4%	0.5%	342	443	-27	21%	32%	101.3	4.5%	231
146	GA	2908	2562	1110	1415	36	43.3%	55.2%	1.4%	3235	1345	1890	0	41.6%	58.4%	0%	235	475	-36	21%	34%	239.5	4.9%	48
147	IN	3065	1233	501	732	0	40.6%	59.4%	0%	1410	531	879	0	37.7%	62.3%	0%	30	147	0	6%	20%	116.7	5.9%	4
148	IA	292	143	67	74	3	46.7%	51.3%	2%	161	75	85	0.6	46.6%	53%	0.4%	8	12	-2	12%	16%	3.5	1.6%	0
149	KS	703	392	147	234	11	37.4%	59.7%	2.9%	444	164	277	2.8	36.9%	62.5%	0.6%	17	43	-9	12%	18%	26.1	3.3%	1
150	KY	2798	1206	480	708	17	39.8%	58.7%	1.4%	1426	532	887	7	37.3%	62.2%	0.5%	52	179	-10	11%	25%	126.7	6%	2
151	LA	1550	792	405	378	10	51.1%	47.7%	1.3%	881	428	450	3.4	48.5%	51.1%	0.4%	23	72	-7	6%	19%	49.4	5.9%	136
152	MD	1666	1915	1093	771	51	57.1%	40.2%	2.7%	2186	1224	952	10.8	56%	43.5%	0.5%	130	181	-43	12%	23%	51.1	4.4%	6
153	MI	1632	805	534	259	13	66.3%	32.1%	1.6%	941	632	305	4.1	67.1%	32.4%	0.4%	98	47	-8	18%	18%	-51	-0.5%	59
154	NV	1208	585	280	302	3	47.9%	51.6%	0.6%	813	393	415	4.8	48.4%	51%	0.6%	114	113	1	41%	38%	-0.2	-1.1%	27
155	NJ	4487	2243	1234	941	67	55%	42%	3%	2485	1282	1189	13.8	51.6%	47.9%	0.6%	47	248	-54	4%	26%	201	9.4%	26
156	NM	1284	532	264	248	20	49.6%	46.7%	3.8%	670	340	326	3.7	50.7%	48.7%	0.5%	76	78	-16	29%	32%	1.9	0.9%	93
157	NY	217	105	48	52	5	46.1%	49.1%	4.8%	117	54	61	2.1	46.1%	52.1%	1.8%	5	9	-3	11%	17%	3.8	2.9%	0
158	NC	1203	1282	540	742	0	42.1%	57.9%	0%	1499	644	855	0	43%	57%	0%	104	113	0	19%	15%	9.4	-1.7%	16
159	OH	1615	692	340	334	18	49.1%	48.2%	2.6%	859	452	407	0	52.6%	47.4%	0%	112	73	-18	33%	22%	-38.9	-4.4%	116
160	PA	2720	1240	788	428	24	63.6%	34.5%	1.9%	1467	944	523	0	64.3%	35.7%	0%	156	95	-24	20%	22%	-60.6	0.4%	246
161	SC	1623	1221	488	714	19	40%	58.4%	1.6%	1366	543	818	4.9	39.8%	59.9%	0.4%	55	104	-14	11%	15%	49.5	1.7%	23
162	TN	1591	1565	754	808	3	48.2%	51.6%	0.2%	1864	798	1059	6.8	42.8%	56.8%	0.4%	44	251	4	6%	31%	206.3	10.5%	4
163	TX	2953	2604	1087	1434	83	41.8%	55.1%	3.2%	2974	1340	1634	0	45.1%	54.9%	0%	253	200	-83	23%	14%	-53	-3.4%	54
164	VA	493	701	331	349	21	47.2%	49.9%	3%	744	378	366	0	50.8%	49.2%	0%	47	16	-21	14%	5%	-30.8	-4.3%	1
165	WA	901	291	143	138	9	49.2%	47.6%	3.3%	354	179	172	2.6	50.5%	48.8%	0.7%	36	34	-7	25%	25%	-1.6	-0.2%	7
166	WV	145	53	26	26	1	49.7%	48.5%	1.8%	62	29	33	0.4	46.6%	52.7%	0.7%	3	7	-1	10%	28%	4.5	7.3%	0
167	WY	13	5	1	4	0	20.6%	76.5%	2.9%	5	1	4	0	18.3%	80.8%	0.9%	0	1	0	-4%	14%	0.6	6.6%	0
168
169	TOTAL	46551	28875	14166	14123	585	49.1%	48.9%	2%	33467	16178	17198	91	48.3%	51.4%	0.3%	2012	3074	-495	14.2%	21.8%	1062	3.2%	1171
170
171
172
173										OTHER
174			2000							2004							Change from 2000			% Change from 2000		Bush Net Increase
175	State	Precincts	Total	GORE	BUSH	NADER	GORE	BUSH	NADER	Total	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	NADER	KERRY	BUSH	Margin	Margin	Incid
176	IL	1340	679	317	348	14	46.8%	51.2%	2%	789	365	424	0	46.3%	53.7%	0%	47	76	-14	15%	22%	28.6	3%	4
177	IN	1652	584	260	324	0	44.5%	55.5%	0%	667	289	378	0	43.4%	56.6%	0%	29	54	0	11%	17%	24.7	2.3%	4
178	MS	159	70	34	35	0	48.8%	50.7%	0.5%	73	34	39	0.2	46.9%	52.9%	0.2%	0	3	0	1%	9%	3	4%	0
179	MO	1331	975	456	501	17	46.8%	51.4%	1.7%	1109	520	589	0	46.9%	53.1%	0%	64	88	-17	14%	17%	23.6	1.6%	2
180	NE	1737	638	213	402	23	33.4%	63%	3.6%	751	247	499	5.5	32.9%	66.4%	0.7%	36	112	-17	17%	28%	76.4	3.9%	0
181	NY	333	133	69	60	4	51.8%	45.2%	3.1%	148	63	84	1.2	42.3%	56.9%	0.8%	-6	24	-3	-9%	40%	30.5	21.3%	0
182	NC	91	91	36	55	0	39.8%	60.2%	0%	115	43	72	0	37.7%	62.3%	0%	7	17	0	19%	31%	9.9	4.4%	0
183	OR	1791	1236	593	576	67	48%	46.6%	5.4%	1399	735	663	0	52.6%	47.4%	0%	142	87	-67	24%	15%	-55.3	-3.8%	0
184	SD	718	285	110	174	0	38.7%	61.3%	0%	356	138	215	4.1	38.6%	60.2%	1.1%	27	40	4	25%	23%	12.8	-0.9%	0
185	UT	1771	760	198	508	54	26.1%	66.8%	7.1%	842	224	607	10.8	26.6%	72.1%	1.3%	25	99	-43	13%	20%	73.8	4.8%	1
186	VA	25	26	8	17	0	31.7%	66.9%	1.5%	3	1	1	0	41.5%	58.5%	0%	-7	-16	0	-87%	-91%	-8.6	-18.1%	0
187	WI	3356	2487	1201	1195	91	48.3%	48%	3.6%	2882	1440	1427	15.7	50%	49.5%	0.5%	238	232	-75	20%	19%	-6.5	-0.2%	25
188	ME									711	384	319	7.8	54%	44.9%	1.1%
189	RI									413	247	162	4	59.9%	39.1%	1%
190	VT									278	166	108	4.1	59.8%	38.8%	1.5%
191	MA									15	9	5	0	62.7%	37.3%	0%
192
193	TOTAL	14304	7963	3497	4196	269	43.92%	52.7%	3.38%	10550	4905	5592	53.2	46.5%	53%	0.5%	601	801	-232	17.2%	19.1%	200	1.1%	36


1
2	Democratic Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate vs. Recorded Vote
3
4		2008		2004		2000		1996		1992		1988		Average
5	State	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Exit	Rec	Diff	Geo
6	Total	58.06	52.87	51.05	48.27	50.79	48.38	52.64	49.23	47.59	43.01	49.27	43.01	51.57	47.46	4.11	Code
7	2-party	59.03	53.69	51.70	48.77	53.16	50.26	58.68	54.67	59.99	53.45	50.29	44.58	55.47	50.91	4.57
8

9	IN	55.66	49.90	39.50	39.30	45.71	41.01	49.55	41.55	53.14	36.79	48.44	39.69	48.67	41.37	7.29	M
10	AL	52.00	38.70	39.70	36.80	51.75	41.59	51.87	43.16	47.51	40.88	39.86	39.86	47.11	40.16	6.95	S
11	VA	62.49	52.60	52.70	45.50	48.56	44.44	53.82	45.15	47.85	40.59	38.90	39.23	50.72	44.58	6.13	S
12	MS	48.43	43.00	45.60	39.80	44.05	40.70	49.75	44.08	53.66	40.77	42.63	39.07	47.35	41.24	6.12	S
13	AK	49.08	37.90	44.70	35.50	30.96	27.67	36.82	33.27	36.95	30.29	36.86	36.27	39.23	33.48	5.75	W
14	TX	46.22	43.60	41.50	38.20	49.53	37.98	46.22	43.83	42.64	37.08	49.15	43.35	45.88	40.67	5.20	S
15	NC	53.52	49.70	46.10	43.60	50.70	43.20	51.25	44.04	47.51	42.65	46.87	41.71	49.32	44.15	5.17	S
16	FL	52.09	50.90	50.80	47.10	53.36	48.84	55.45	48.02	45.66	39.00	45.78	38.51	50.52	45.39	5.13	S
17	NJ	63.84	57.20	59.10	52.90	58.76	56.13	59.30	53.72	47.49	42.95	47.11	42.60	55.94	50.92	5.02	E
18	TN	47.67	41.80	41.60	42.50	54.42	47.28	54.22	48.00	57.31	47.08	41.55	41.55	49.46	44.70	4.76	S
19	CA	67.00	61.00	53.90	54.30	53.87	53.45	57.03	51.10	52.49	46.01	57.69	47.56	57.00	52.24	4.76	W
20	NH	61.65	54.10	56.70	50.20	47.21	46.80	56.12	49.32	43.07	38.91	39.30	36.33	50.67	45.94	4.73	E
21	MO	57.50	49.30	50.40	46.10	49.34	47.08	52.54	47.54	50.57	44.07	49.06	47.85	51.57	46.99	4.58	M
22	AR	46.00	38.90	44.40	44.50	52.20	45.86	56.78	53.74	63.35	53.21	41.80	42.19	50.75	46.40	4.35	S
23	CT	73.38	60.60	62.50	54.30	54.81	55.91	52.04	52.83	48.06	42.21	46.73	46.87	56.25	52.12	4.13	E
24	OH	56.28	51.40	54.10	48.70	47.39	46.46	51.70	47.38	46.67	40.18	46.58	44.15	50.45	46.38	4.07	M
25	VT	71.46	67.50	68.80	58.90	50.65	50.63	56.34	53.35	49.84	46.11	49.94	47.58	57.84	54.01	3.83	E
26	PA	63.77	54.50	56.60	50.90	51.12	50.60	53.89	49.17	46.07	45.15	49.91	48.39	53.56	49.78	3.77	E
27	NM	58.82	56.90	53.90	49.00	48.96	47.91	55.03	49.18	51.23	45.90	50.19	46.90	53.02	49.30	3.72	W
28	DE	68.61	61.90	63.30	53.30	58.81	54.96	53.23	51.82	42.59	43.52	44.40	43.48	55.16	51.50	3.66	E
29	MD	67.20	61.90	54.80	55.90	61.01	56.57	54.62	54.25	55.39	49.80	55.35	48.20	58.06	54.44	3.63	E
30	MI	62.21	57.40	53.90	51.20	53.48	51.28	54.76	51.69	46.78	43.77	51.16	45.67	53.72	50.17	3.55	M
31	SC	47.55	44.90	47.80	40.90	45.57	40.91	46.52	43.85	43.51	39.88	38.30	37.58	44.87	41.34	3.54	S
32	NY	71.54	62.80	62.10	58.40	59.17	60.21	60.69	59.47	51.32	49.73	56.55	51.62	60.23	57.04	3.19	E
33	OR	58.45	56.70	52.20	51.30	52.20	46.96	49.41	47.15	47.60	42.48	54.50	51.28	52.39	49.31	3.08	W
34	IL	66.31	61.90	56.00	54.80	56.34	54.60	56.14	54.32	51.86	48.58	54.60	48.60	56.87	53.80	3.07	M
35	RI	67.47	63.10	63.30	59.40	57.93	60.99	61.85	59.71	55.71	47.04	55.50	55.64	60.29	57.65	2.65	E
36	NV	56.34	55.10	52.40	47.90	48.95	45.98	44.89	43.93	37.31	37.36	43.56	37.92	47.24	44.70	2.54	W
37	AZ	51.42	44.90	46.30	44.40	47.15	44.67	48.55	46.52	38.37	36.52	38.74	38.74	45.09	42.63	2.46	W
38	GA	51.11	46.90	41.80	41.40	49.24	42.98	47.56	45.84	45.52	43.47	39.50	39.50	45.79	43.35	2.44	S
39	MA	67.01	61.80	64.70	61.90	60.20	59.80	60.59	61.47	52.61	47.54	55.20	53.23	60.05	57.62	2.43	E
40	WI	63.30	56.20	52.00	49.70	47.42	47.83	51.62	48.81	43.45	41.13	50.79	51.41	51.43	49.18	2.25	M
41	WA	57.94	57.40	56.50	52.80	52.48	50.13	51.43	49.84	46.86	43.41	51.56	50.05	52.80	50.61	2.19	W
42	NE	49.24	41.60	36.40	32.70	29.71	33.25	37.86	34.95	28.82	29.40	41.70	39.20	37.29	35.18	2.10	M
43	MN	61.86	54.10	56.30	51.10	45.39	47.91	50.66	51.10	45.49	43.48	52.35	52.91	52.01	50.10	1.91	M
44	ID	41.83	36.00	27.80	30.30	32.77	27.64	33.82	33.65	29.66	28.42	37.00	36.01	33.81	32.00	1.81	W
45	CO	51.91	53.70	49.30	47.00	45.35	42.39	45.80	44.43	44.58	40.13	46.80	45.28	47.29	45.49	1.80	W
46	MT	54.37	47.20	39.30	38.60	32.00	33.36	42.30	41.23	37.57	37.63	48.40	46.20	42.32	40.70	1.62	W
47	KS	46.13	41.60	34.20	36.60	39.24	37.24	38.75	36.08	34.30	33.74	44.40	42.56	39.50	37.97	1.53	M
48	ME	62.05	57.70	55.40	53.60	47.33	49.09	53.80	51.62	41.06	38.77	43.88	43.88	50.59	49.11	1.48	E
49	KY	46.81	41.10	42.40	39.70	41.71	41.37	44.02	45.84	44.74	44.55	44.40	43.88	44.01	42.74	1.27	M
50	LA	45.94	39.90	44.20	42.20	48.19	44.88	48.77	52.01	43.71	45.58	45.30	44.06	46.02	44.77	1.25	S
51	UT	31.53	34.30	31.50	26.00	23.20	26.34	40.00	33.30	25.37	24.65	32.05	32.05	30.61	29.44	1.17	W
52	WV	45.14	42.60	41.70	43.20	43.94	45.59	52.09	51.51	54.11	48.41	52.20	52.20	48.20	47.25	0.94	E
53	WY	34.06	32.50	28.90	29.10	28.16	27.70	37.61	36.84	36.01	34.10	38.01	38.01	33.79	33.04	0.75	W
54	HI	70.39	71.80	61.30	54.00	52.24	55.79	58.16	56.93	48.83	48.09	54.27	54.27	57.53	56.81	0.72	W
55	OK	40.62	34.40	36.30	34.40	32.08	38.43	40.57	40.45	37.98	34.02	38.50	41.28	37.67	37.16	0.51	S
56	SD	48.72	44.70	35.10	38.40	35.33	37.56	45.88	43.03	37.31	37.14	47.00	46.51	41.56	41.22	0.33	M
57	DC	92.03	92.50	90.70	89.20	84.14	85.16	84.98	85.19	85.32	84.64	82.65	82.65	86.64	86.56	0.08	E
58	ND	38.88	44.50	31.40	35.50	31.88	33.05	44.23	40.13	37.86	32.18	43.80	42.97	38.01	38.06	-0.05	M
59	IA	56.90	53.90	49.30	49.20	46.12	48.54	46.74	50.26	43.74	43.29	54.37	54.71	49.53	49.98	-0.46	M
60
61
62	Exit Poll Swing vs. Exit Poll Shift
63	Correlation: EP Swing vs. EP Shift
64		0.37			0.62			0.57			0.10			0.65				0.46
65
66	State	2008	Swing	Shift	2004	Swing	Shift	2000	Swing	Shift	1996	Swing	Shift	1992	Swing	Shift	1988	Average
67	AK	49.08	16.16	5.76	44.70	-6.21	0.20	30.96	-3.84	4.70	36.82	-3.59	8.00	36.95	4.70	16.35	36.86	39.23
68	AL	52.00	12.30	13.30	39.70	-12.05	2.90	51.75	-0.12	10.16	51.87	4.35	8.71	47.51	7.65	6.63	39.86	47.11
69	AR	46.00	9.79	9.89	44.40	4.14	7.20	52.20	-5.26	4.12	56.78	5.97	8.67	63.35	8.95	7.26	41.80	50.75
70	AZ	51.42	2.83	5.43	46.30	1.55	5.80	47.15	-5.70	3.34	48.55	-3.92	5.67	38.37	11.03	12.89	38.74	45.09
71	CA	67.00	4.38	11.18	53.90	13.74	9.20	53.87	-5.86	3.29	57.03	-0.13	3.55	52.49	0.09	6.66	57.69	57.00
72	CO	51.91	4.72	2.62	49.30	-8.03	3.30	45.35	3.31	11.55	45.80	3.58	2.39	44.58	-6.52	5.56	46.80	47.29
73	CT	73.38	7.42	3.82	62.50	-4.60	2.50	54.81	-0.55	7.50	52.04	3.74	7.21	48.06	0.64	4.86	46.73	56.25
74	DC	92.03	1.29	1.19	90.70	-2.56	3.70	84.14	-2.10	4.52	84.98	9.80	7.43	85.32	-0.12	6.66	82.65	86.64
75	DE	68.61	4.74	6.64	63.30	0.34	6.20	58.81	-0.54	2.64	53.23	11.81	5.58	42.59	0.39	4.54	44.40	55.16
76	FL	52.09	6.07	5.87	50.80	-12.82	-0.90	53.36	0.20	7.13	55.45	-3.09	6.22	45.66	15.76	10.23	45.78	50.52
77	GA	51.11	13.10	6.00	41.80	0.03	-0.40	49.24	-3.16	0.42	47.56	4.54	5.93	45.52	-5.19	6.48	39.50	45.79
78	HI	70.39	4.95	7.55	61.30	9.49	6.50	52.24	-8.91	0.40	58.16	13.04	6.80	48.83	3.77	4.16	54.27	57.53
79	IA	56.90	7.10	8.20	49.30	1.06	4.30	46.12	-3.20	2.26	46.74	1.97	5.00	43.74	1.51	6.50	54.37	49.53
80	ID	41.83	1.60	7.10	27.80	-7.80	-0.10	32.77	-4.58	6.33	33.82	-6.56	3.04	29.66	21.55	10.14	37.00	33.81
81	IL	66.31	10.88	12.78	56.00	7.69	8.20	56.34	2.77	-1.10	56.14	3.98	-0.79	51.86	1.33	5.85	54.60	56.87
82	IN	55.66	2.18	4.88	39.50	6.71	5.40	45.71	-4.31	0.93	49.55	5.03	4.32	53.14	0.09	6.49	48.44	48.67
83	KS	46.13	2.66	3.96	34.20	18.15	9.90	39.24	-5.70	0.01	38.75	6.50	2.99	34.30	-0.09	3.73	44.40	39.50
84	KY	46.81	7.17	9.27	42.40	5.48	5.70	41.71	-2.77	0.52	44.02	7.82	4.72	44.74	-3.84	0.92	44.40	44.01
85	LA	45.94	4.92	1.92	44.20	4.94	4.90	48.19	-6.07	1.05	48.77	3.80	5.85	43.71	1.04	5.33	45.30	46.02
86	MA	67.01	5.31	6.71	64.70	4.49	10.00	60.20	5.57	3.84	60.59	10.64	1.41	52.61	-1.81	-0.93	55.20	60.05
87	MD	67.20	12.40	5.30	54.80	-6.21	-1.10	61.01	6.39	4.44	54.62	-0.77	0.37	55.39	0.04	5.59	55.35	58.06
88	ME	62.05	8.31	4.81	55.40	0.42	2.70	47.33	-1.28	2.21	53.80	7.98	3.07	41.06	-4.39	3.01	43.88	50.59
89	MI	62.21	-0.25	2.65	53.90	2.23	6.90	53.48	-0.94	4.67	54.76	3.01	2.67	46.78	5.21	3.63	51.16	53.72
90	MN	61.86	9.44	8.74	56.30	2.93	3.70	45.39	-1.52	-1.04	50.66	9.37	1.22	45.49	-5.23	1.59	52.35	52.01
91	MO	57.50	6.25	1.75	50.40	0.00	0.90	49.34	2.79	5.24	52.54	1.81	2.26	50.57	-6.90	5.12	49.06	51.57
92	MS	48.43	10.31	4.41	45.60	-0.34	1.20	44.05	0.20	1.74	49.75	4.28	1.82	53.66	-2.74	3.28	42.63	47.35
93	MT	54.37	4.17	4.37	39.30	5.37	3.90	32.00	-3.91	-3.05	42.30	6.13	2.14	37.57	0.21	8.67	48.40	42.32
94	NC	53.52	3.94	1.24	46.10	3.45	4.50	50.70	4.06	2.98	51.25	7.58	0.96	47.51	-6.25	-0.05	46.87	49.32
95	ND	38.88	5.12	6.52	31.40	-0.85	1.90	31.88	-1.40	2.47	44.23	10.18	2.03	37.86	-0.37	1.85	43.80	38.01
96	NE	49.24	9.31	4.21	36.40	-7.44	0.40	29.71	1.68	6.25	37.86	2.04	1.72	28.82	6.02	2.05	41.70	37.29
97	NH	61.65	2.31	5.21	56.70	4.50	2.80	47.21	-0.39	0.40	56.12	7.98	-0.88	43.07	-2.59	5.07	39.30	50.67
98	NJ	63.84	11.30	7.10	59.10	4.58	2.30	58.76	-4.20	-0.41	59.30	8.17	2.81	47.49	-7.34	2.32	47.11	55.94
99	NM	58.82	1.44	0.54	53.90	4.02	3.70	48.96	1.04	2.34	55.03	4.57	1.59	51.23	-4.70	3.45	50.19	53.02
100	NV	56.34	12.84	7.64	52.40	6.69	3.70	48.95	-8.15	-3.54	44.89	9.04	2.91	37.31	-12.88	-0.58	43.56	47.24
101	NY	71.54	5.56	7.76	62.10	10.91	5.20	59.17	-5.26	-2.51	60.69	5.17	-0.44	51.32	-6.86	2.01	56.55	60.23
102	OH	56.28	14.03	5.83	54.10	-4.97	-2.50	47.39	-1.05	5.13	51.70	4.15	0.17	46.67	-7.34	1.24	46.58	50.45
103	OK	40.62	2.61	-1.79	36.30	3.95	2.30	32.08	-0.45	2.95	40.57	1.22	1.37	37.98	-2.22	4.45	38.50	37.67
104	OR	58.45	15.07	7.17	52.20	7.30	0.70	52.20	-10.30	-1.36	49.41	4.74	1.07	47.60	-10.83	-0.06	54.50	52.39
105	PA	63.77	11.93	4.53	56.60	-5.04	-2.40	51.12	0.48	2.00	53.89	4.45	2.67	46.07	-10.10	0.56	49.91	53.56
106	RI	67.47	6.65	4.35	63.30	8.07	1.80	57.93	-6.47	-1.75	61.85	12.74	2.18	55.71	-2.82	2.29	55.50	60.29
107	SC	47.55	4.41	5.71	47.80	0.69	2.70	45.57	-2.31	0.34	46.52	-0.72	-1.82	43.51	0.34	0.19	38.30	44.87
108	SD	48.72	1.74	6.04	35.10	-3.99	2.00	35.33	-0.58	3.31	45.88	5.06	-3.24	37.31	-1.59	-1.87	47.00	41.56
109	TN	47.67	0.03	-2.77	41.60	8.30	5.50	54.42	-16.80	-3.15	54.22	14.63	6.70	57.31	-6.68	0.72	41.55	49.46
110	TX	46.22	3.44	2.54	41.50	-2.24	-1.50	49.53	-8.15	-1.65	46.22	-2.02	0.58	42.64	1.91	5.70	49.15	45.88
111	UT	31.53	5.16	1.56	31.50	0.74	-0.20	23.20	-9.45	0.46	40.00	1.60	0.77	25.37	-2.00	1.91	32.05	30.61
112	VA	62.49	9.09	-1.41	52.70	9.06	7.30	48.56	-5.92	-3.55	53.82	9.33	1.23	47.85	-5.44	0.74	38.90	50.72
113	VT	71.46	4.32	6.22	68.80	4.22	1.90	50.65	-8.50	-6.35	56.34	2.60	0.12	49.84	-0.52	3.96	49.94	57.84
114	WA	57.94	13.62	4.02	56.50	-0.23	-3.30	52.48	-10.55	-2.23	51.43	8.57	2.85	46.86	-9.69	0.17	51.56	52.80
115	WI	63.30	1.33	-0.47	52.00	6.56	1.50	47.42	-0.84	-1.01	51.62	-0.33	-0.21	43.45	2.67	0.68	50.79	51.43
116	WV	45.14	7.48	-5.62	41.70	-0.48	-4.10	43.94	-12.36	-1.18	52.09	6.37	4.10	54.11	-5.94	5.68	52.20	48.20
117	WY	34.06	7.60	3.00	28.90	3.18	0.10	28.16	-0.62	-2.42	37.61	3.00	-3.52	36.01	-10.63	0.45	38.01	33.79
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135	Recorded Swing vs. Exit Poll Shift
136	Correlation: Recorded Swing vs. EP Shift
137		0.11			-0.12			0.09			-0.18			0.11				0.00
138
139	State	2008	Swing	Shift	2004	Swing	Shift	2000	Swing	Shift	1996	Swing	Shift	1992	Swing	Shift	1988	Average
140	AK	37.90	2.40	5.76	35.50	7.83	0.20	27.67	-5.60	4.70	33.27	2.98	8.00	30.29	-5.98	16.35	36.27	33.48
141	AL	38.70	1.90	13.30	36.80	-4.79	2.90	41.59	-1.57	10.16	43.16	2.28	8.71	40.88	1.02	6.63	39.86	40.16
142	AR	38.90	-5.60	9.89	44.50	-1.36	7.20	45.86	-7.88	4.12	53.74	0.53	8.67	53.21	11.02	7.26	42.19	46.40
143	AZ	44.90	0.50	5.43	44.40	-0.27	5.80	44.67	-1.85	3.34	46.52	10.00	5.67	36.52	-2.22	12.89	38.74	42.63
144	CA	61.00	6.70	11.18	54.30	0.85	9.20	53.45	2.35	3.29	51.10	5.09	3.55	46.01	-1.55	6.66	47.56	52.24
145	CO	53.70	6.70	2.62	47.00	4.61	3.30	42.39	-2.04	11.55	44.43	4.30	2.39	40.13	-5.15	5.56	45.28	45.49
146	CT	60.60	6.30	3.82	54.30	-1.61	2.50	55.91	3.08	7.50	52.83	10.62	7.21	42.21	-4.66	4.86	46.87	52.12
147	DC	92.50	3.30	1.19	89.20	4.04	3.70	85.16	-0.03	4.52	85.19	0.55	7.43	84.64	1.99	6.66	82.65	86.56
148	DE	61.90	8.60	6.64	53.30	-1.66	6.20	54.96	3.14	2.64	51.82	8.30	5.58	43.52	0.04	4.54	43.48	51.50
149	FL	50.90	3.80	5.87	47.10	-1.74	-0.90	48.84	0.82	7.13	48.02	9.02	6.22	39.00	0.49	10.23	38.51	45.39
150	GA	46.90	5.50	6.00	41.40	-1.58	-0.40	42.98	-2.86	0.42	45.84	2.37	5.93	43.47	3.97	6.48	39.50	43.35
151	HI	71.80	17.80	7.55	54.00	-1.79	6.50	55.79	-1.14	0.40	56.93	8.84	6.80	48.09	-6.18	4.16	54.27	56.81
152	IA	53.90	4.70	8.20	49.20	0.66	4.30	48.54	-1.72	2.26	50.26	6.97	5.00	43.29	-11.42	6.50	54.71	49.98
153	ID	36.00	5.70	7.10	30.30	2.66	-0.10	27.64	-6.01	6.33	33.65	5.23	3.04	28.42	-7.59	10.14	36.01	32.00
154	IL	61.90	7.10	12.78	54.80	0.20	8.20	54.60	0.28	-1.10	54.32	5.74	-0.79	48.58	-0.02	5.85	48.60	53.80
155	IN	49.90	10.60	4.88	39.30	-1.71	5.40	41.01	-0.54	0.93	41.55	4.76	4.32	36.79	-2.90	6.49	39.69	41.37
156	KS	41.60	5.00	3.96	36.60	-0.64	9.90	37.24	1.16	0.01	36.08	2.34	2.99	33.74	-8.82	3.73	42.56	37.97
157	KY	41.10	1.40	9.27	39.70	-1.67	5.70	41.37	-4.47	0.52	45.84	1.29	4.72	44.55	0.67	0.92	43.88	42.74
158	LA	39.90	-2.30	1.92	42.20	-2.68	4.90	44.88	-7.13	1.05	52.01	6.43	5.85	45.58	1.52	5.33	44.06	44.77
159	MA	61.80	-0.10	6.71	61.90	2.10	10.00	59.80	-1.67	3.84	61.47	13.93	1.41	47.54	-5.69	-0.93	53.23	57.62
160	MD	61.90	6.00	5.30	55.90	-0.67	-1.10	56.57	2.32	4.44	54.25	4.45	0.37	49.80	1.60	5.59	48.20	54.44
161	ME	57.70	4.10	4.81	53.60	4.51	2.70	49.09	-2.53	2.21	51.62	12.85	3.07	38.77	-5.11	3.01	43.88	49.11
162	MI	57.40	6.20	2.65	51.20	-0.08	6.90	51.28	-0.41	4.67	51.69	7.92	2.67	43.77	-1.90	3.63	45.67	50.17
163	MN	54.10	3.00	8.74	51.10	3.19	3.70	47.91	-3.19	-1.04	51.10	7.62	1.22	43.48	-9.43	1.59	52.91	50.10
164	MO	49.30	3.20	1.75	46.10	-0.98	0.90	47.08	-0.46	5.24	47.54	3.47	2.26	44.07	-3.78	5.12	47.85	46.99
165	MS	43.00	3.20	4.41	39.80	-0.90	1.20	40.70	-3.38	1.74	44.08	3.31	1.82	40.77	1.70	3.28	39.07	41.24
166	MT	47.20	8.60	4.37	38.60	5.24	3.90	33.36	-7.87	-3.05	41.23	3.60	2.14	37.63	-8.57	8.67	46.20	40.70
167	NC	49.70	6.10	1.24	43.60	0.40	4.50	43.20	-0.84	2.98	44.04	1.39	0.96	42.65	0.94	-0.05	41.71	44.15
168	ND	44.50	9.00	6.52	35.50	2.45	1.90	33.05	-7.08	2.47	40.13	7.95	2.03	32.18	-10.79	1.85	42.97	38.06
169	NE	41.60	8.90	4.21	32.70	-0.55	0.40	33.25	-1.70	6.25	34.95	5.55	1.72	29.40	-9.80	2.05	39.20	35.18
170	NH	54.10	3.90	5.21	50.20	3.40	2.80	46.80	-2.52	0.40	49.32	10.41	-0.88	38.91	2.58	5.07	36.33	45.94
171	NJ	57.20	4.30	7.10	52.90	-3.23	2.30	56.13	2.41	-0.41	53.72	10.77	2.81	42.95	0.35	2.32	42.60	50.92
172	NM	56.90	7.90	0.54	49.00	1.09	3.70	47.91	-1.27	2.34	49.18	3.28	1.59	45.90	-1.00	3.45	46.90	49.30
173	NV	55.10	7.20	7.64	47.90	1.92	3.70	45.98	2.05	-3.54	43.93	6.57	2.91	37.36	-0.56	-0.58	37.92	44.70
174	NY	62.80	4.40	7.76	58.40	-1.81	5.20	60.21	0.74	-2.51	59.47	9.74	-0.44	49.73	-1.89	2.01	51.62	57.04
175	OH	51.40	2.70	5.83	48.70	2.24	-2.50	46.46	-0.92	5.13	47.38	7.20	0.17	40.18	-3.97	1.24	44.15	46.38
176	OK	34.40	0.00	-1.79	34.40	-4.03	2.30	38.43	-2.02	2.95	40.45	6.43	1.37	34.02	-7.26	4.45	41.28	37.16
177	OR	56.70	5.40	7.17	51.30	4.34	0.70	46.96	-0.19	-1.36	47.15	4.67	1.07	42.48	-8.80	-0.06	51.28	49.31
178	PA	54.50	3.60	4.53	50.90	0.30	-2.40	50.60	1.43	2.00	49.17	4.02	2.67	45.15	-3.24	0.56	48.39	49.78
179	RI	63.10	3.70	4.35	59.40	-1.59	1.80	60.99	1.28	-1.75	59.71	12.67	2.18	47.04	-8.60	2.29	55.64	57.65
180	SC	44.90	4.00	5.71	40.90	-0.01	2.70	40.91	-2.94	0.34	43.85	3.97	-1.82	39.88	2.30	0.19	37.58	41.34
181	SD	44.70	6.30	6.04	38.40	0.84	2.00	37.56	-5.47	3.31	43.03	5.89	-3.24	37.14	-9.37	-1.87	46.51	41.22
182	TN	41.80	-0.70	-2.77	42.50	-4.78	5.50	47.28	-0.72	-3.15	48.00	0.92	6.70	47.08	5.53	0.72	41.55	44.70
183	TX	43.60	5.40	2.54	38.20	0.22	-1.50	37.98	-5.85	-1.65	43.83	6.75	0.58	37.08	-6.27	5.70	43.35	40.67
184	UT	34.30	8.30	1.56	26.00	-0.34	-0.20	26.34	-6.96	0.46	33.30	8.65	0.77	24.65	-7.40	1.91	32.05	29.44
185	VA	52.60	7.10	-1.41	45.50	1.06	7.30	44.44	-0.71	-3.55	45.15	4.56	1.23	40.59	1.36	0.74	39.23	44.58
186	VT	67.50	8.60	6.22	58.90	8.27	1.90	50.63	-2.72	-6.35	53.35	7.24	0.12	46.11	-1.47	3.96	47.58	54.01
187	WA	57.40	4.60	4.02	52.80	2.67	-3.30	50.13	0.29	-2.23	49.84	6.43	2.85	43.41	-6.64	0.17	50.05	50.61
188	WI	56.20	6.50	-0.47	49.70	1.87	1.50	47.83	-0.98	-1.01	48.81	7.68	-0.21	41.13	-10.28	0.68	51.41	49.18
189	WV	42.60	-0.60	-5.62	43.20	-2.39	-4.10	45.59	-5.92	-1.18	51.51	3.10	4.10	48.41	-3.79	5.68	52.20	47.25
190	WY	32.50	3.40	3.00	29.10	1.40	0.10	27.70	-9.14	-2.42	36.84	2.74	-3.52	34.10	-3.91	0.45	38.01	33.04
191
192
193
194
195						Democratic Exit Poll / Recorded Vote
196		2008		2004		2000		1996		1992		1988		Average
197
198	Average	1.10		1.06		1.04		1.06		1.10		1.05		1.07
199
200	IN	1.12		1.01		1.11		1.19		1.44		1.22		1.18
201	AL	1.34		1.08		1.24		1.20		1.16		1.00		1.17
202	AK	1.29		1.26		1.12		1.11		1.22		1.02		1.17
203	MS	1.13		1.15		1.08		1.13		1.32		1.09		1.15
204	VA	1.19		1.16		1.09		1.19		1.18		0.99		1.13
205	TX	1.06		1.09		1.30		1.05		1.15		1.13		1.13
206	NC	1.08		1.06		1.17		1.16		1.11		1.12		1.12
207	FL	1.02		1.08		1.09		1.15		1.17		1.19		1.12
208	AR	1.18		1.00		1.00		1.06		1.19		0.99		1.07
209	TN	1.14		0.98		1.15		1.13		1.22		1.00		1.10
210	NH	1.14		1.13		1.01		1.14		1.11		1.08		1.10
211	NJ	1.12		1.12		1.05		1.10		1.11		1.11		1.10
212	MO	1.17		1.09		1.05		1.11		1.15		1.03		1.10
213	CA	1.10		0.99		1.01		1.12		1.14		1.21		1.09
214	OH	1.09		1.11		1.02		1.09		1.16		1.06		1.09
215	SC	1.06		1.17		1.11		1.06		1.09		1.02		1.09
216	CT	1.21		1.15		0.98		0.99		1.14		1.00		1.08
217	NM	1.03		1.10		1.02		1.12		1.12		1.07		1.08
218	PA	1.17		1.11		1.01		1.10		1.02		1.03		1.07
219	MI	1.08		1.05		1.04		1.06		1.07		1.12		1.07
220	VT	1.06		1.17		1.00		1.06		1.08		1.05		1.07
221	MD	1.09		0.98		1.08		1.01		1.11		1.15		1.07
222	DE	1.11		1.19		1.07		1.03		0.98		1.02		1.07
223	OR	1.03		1.02		1.11		1.05		1.12		1.06		1.07
224	NV	1.02		1.09		1.06		1.02		1.00		1.15		1.06
225	IL	1.07		1.02		1.03		1.03		1.07		1.12		1.06
226	ID	1.16		0.92		1.19		1.01		1.04		1.03		1.06
227	AZ	1.15		1.04		1.06		1.04		1.05		1.00		1.06
228	NY	1.14		1.06		0.98		1.02		1.03		1.10		1.06
229	GA	1.09		1.01		1.15		1.04		1.05		1.00		1.05
230	NE	1.18		1.11		0.89		1.08		0.98		1.06		1.05
231	RI	1.07		1.07		0.95		1.04		1.18		1.00		1.05
232	WA	1.01		1.07		1.05		1.03		1.08		1.03		1.04
233	WI	1.13		1.05		0.99		1.06		1.06		0.99		1.04
234	MA	1.08		1.05		1.01		0.99		1.11		1.04		1.04
235	CO	0.97		1.05		1.07		1.03		1.11		1.03		1.04
236	UT	0.92		1.21		0.88		1.20		1.03		1.00		1.04
237	KS	1.11		0.93		1.05		1.07		1.02		1.04		1.04
238	MN	1.14		1.10		0.95		0.99		1.05		0.99		1.04
239	MT	1.15		1.02		0.96		1.03		1.00		1.05		1.03
240	LA	1.15		1.05		1.07		0.94		0.96		1.03		1.03
241	KY	1.14		1.07		1.01		0.96		1.00		1.01		1.03
242	ME	1.08		1.03		0.96		1.04		1.06		1.00		1.03
243	WY	1.05		0.99		1.02		1.02		1.06		1.00		1.02
244	OK	1.18		1.06		0.83		1.00		1.12		0.93		1.02
245	WV	1.06		0.97		0.96		1.01		1.12		1.00		1.02
246	HI	0.98		1.14		0.94		1.02		1.02		1.00		1.01
247	SD	1.09		0.91		0.94		1.07		1.00		1.01		1.00
248	ND	0.87		0.88		0.96		1.10		1.18		1.02		1.00
249	DC	0.99		1.02		0.99		1.00		1.01		1.00		1.00
250	IA	1.06		1.00		0.95		0.93		1.01		0.99		0.99
251


1							------------------Returning 2000 election voters based on -----------------------					Deviation between True Vote 4 and...
2		2004	2004	Kerry % Share	Unadjusted	Unadjusted	Recorded	Cast	Exit Poll	True Vote	True Vote	Recorded	WPE/IMS	Unadjusted		WPE/IMS-	WPE/IMS-
3		Cast	Recorded	Recorded	WPE/IMS	Exit Poll	True Vote 1	True Vote 2	True Vote 3	True Vote 4	Average 1-3	Vote	Exit Poll	Exit Poll		Unadjusted	Unadjusted <
4		125,737	122,294	48.27	51.97	51.05	52.40	53.26	52.80	53.09	52.81	5.36	2.26	2.45		0.20	1	within
5						Nat True Vote >	52.25	53.28	52.92	53.74	52.82	4.82	1.12	2.04		0.92	22	total
6												2.52	3.95	4.34		0.00
7
8	AL	2,060	1,883	36.84	41.84	39.70	44.87	48.24	46.84	46.03	46.65	9.19	4.19	6.33	AL	2.14	0
9	AK	293	313	35.52	40.17	44.70	40.42	41.89	40.42	42.38	40.91	6.86	2.21	-2.32	AK	-4.53	0
10	AZ	2,239	2,013	44.40	44.55	46.30	48.65	49.69	48.65	49.29	49.00	4.89	4.74	2.99	AZ	-1.75	0
11	AR	1,140	1,055	44.55	45.20	44.40	48.89	49.15	49.88	52.04	49.31	7.49	6.84	7.64	AR	0.80	1
12	CA	12,807	12,420	54.31	60.11	53.90	57.59	58.17	58.87	57.58	58.21	3.27	-2.53	3.68	CA	6.21	0
13
14	CO	2,097	2,130	47.02	50.07	49.30	49.93	51.76	51.58	51.10	51.09	4.08	1.03	1.80	CO	0.77	1
15	CT	1,524	1,579	54.31	62.31	62.50	60.20	63.97	60.50	59.36	61.56	5.05	-2.95	-3.14	CT	-0.19	1
16	DE	385	375	53.35	61.30	63.30	57.85	58.74	60.30	57.96	58.96	4.61	-3.34	-5.34	DE	-2.00	0
17	DC	270	228	89.18	90.58	90.70	83.52	81.08	83.52	84.65	82.71	-4.53	-5.93	-6.05	DC	-0.12	1
18	FL	7,372	7,610	47.09	50.99	50.80	52.04	53.25	52.23	52.14	52.51	5.05	1.15	1.34	FL	0.19	1
19
20	GA	3,332	3,302	41.37	42.02	41.80	46.09	47.71	47.88	47.64	47.23	6.27	5.62	5.84	GA	0.22	1
21	HI	433	429	54.01	58.11	61.30	60.15	63.09	60.15	60.87	61.13	6.86	2.76	-0.43	HI	-3.19	0
22	ID	585	598	30.26	32.26	27.80	35.23	35.30	34.42	37.22	34.98	6.96	4.96	9.42	ID	4.46	0
23	IL	5,672	5,274	54.82	56.57	56.00	56.84	57.58	58.98	57.34	57.80	2.52	0.77	1.34	IL	0.57	1
24	IN	2,598	2,468	39.26	40.36	39.50	44.47	47.97	45.81	45.65	46.08	6.39	5.29	6.15	IN	0.86	1
25
26	IA	1,522	1,507	49.23	50.73	49.30	51.85	52.32	50.85	52.61	51.67	3.38	1.88	3.31	IA	1.43	0
27	KS	1,188	1,188	36.62	37.17	34.20	42.52	44.21	44.12	41.65	43.62	5.03	4.48	7.45	KS	2.97	0
28	KY	1,930	1,796	39.69	39.89	42.40	44.47	45.97	43.06	46.57	44.50	6.88	6.68	4.17	KY	-2.51	0
29	LA	2,067	1,943	42.22	43.52	44.20	47.74	50.54	47.96	50.78	48.75	8.56	7.26	6.58	LA	-0.68	1
30	ME	736	741	53.57	55.57	55.40	54.58	55.14	55.31	57.36	55.01	3.79	1.79	1.96	ME	0.17	1
31
32	MD	2,413	2,387	55.91	59.56	54.80	58.82	59.62	60.28	58.57	59.57	2.66	-0.99	3.77	MD	4.76	0
33	MA	3,085	2,912	61.94	65.79	64.70	64.16	64.34	65.62	65.52	64.71	3.58	-0.27	0.82	MA	1.09	0
34	MI	4,818	4,839	51.23	54.43	53.90	54.02	54.41	54.76	54.52	54.40	3.29	0.09	0.62	MI	0.53	1
35	MN	2,887	2,828	51.09	55.69	56.30	54.40	55.26	54.25	56.31	54.64	5.22	0.62	0.01	MN	-0.61	1
36	MS	1,263	1,152	40.16	49.41	45.60	44.92	49.33	46.08	47.41	46.78	7.25	-2.00	1.81	MS	3.81	0
37
38	MO	2,815	2,731	46.10	49.00	50.40	50.00	52.16	49.36	51.24	50.51	5.14	2.24	0.84	MO	-1.40	0
39	MT	482	450	38.57	37.27	39.30	41.33	41.45	40.31	45.08	41.03	6.51	7.81	5.78	MT	-2.03	0
40	NE	793	778	32.68	37.03	36.40	39.57	40.06	40.96	40.29	40.20	7.61	3.26	3.89	NE	0.63	1
41	NV	871	830	47.88	52.83	52.40	52.28	53.02	53.94	53.51	53.08	5.63	0.68	1.11	NV	0.43	1
42	NH	677	678	50.25	57.25	56.70	53.28	53.33	54.04	54.50	53.55	4.25	-2.75	-2.20	NH	0.55	1
43
44	NJ	3,693	3,612	52.92	57.47	59.10	58.24	58.89	58.38	57.84	58.50	4.92	0.37	-1.26	NJ	-1.63	0
45	NM	837	756	49.05	53.05	53.90	53.08	54.17	51.60	54.07	52.95	5.02	1.02	0.17	NM	-0.85	1
46	NY	7,698	7,391	58.37	64.47	62.10	62.68	62.90	63.82	63.28	63.13	4.91	-1.19	1.18	NY	2.37	0
47	NC	3,639	3,501	43.58	49.53	46.10	47.49	48.05	50.53	48.34	48.69	4.76	-1.19	2.24	NC	3.43	0
48	ND	330	313	35.50	34.65	31.40	39.92	42.09	39.20	44.05	40.40	8.55	9.40	12.65	ND	3.25	0
49
50	OH	5,485	5,628	48.71	54.01	54.10	51.32	51.75	51.65	52.08	51.57	3.37	-1.93	-2.02	OH	-0.09	1
51	OK	1,541	1,464	34.43	33.83	36.30	41.17	44.68	39.53	43.21	41.79	8.78	9.38	6.91	OK	-2.47	0
52	OR	1,924	1,837	51.35	52.25	52.20	53.05	53.15	53.05	53.95	53.08	2.60	1.70	1.75	OR	0.05	1
53	PA	5,845	5,770	50.92	55.12	56.60	59.21	54.43	54.46	54.38	56.03	3.46	-0.74	-2.22	PA	-1.48	0
54	RI	467	437	59.42	62.07	63.30	63.05	64.31	63.99	65.51	63.78	6.09	3.44	2.21	RI	-1.23	0
55
56	SC	1,899	1,618	40.90	45.75	47.80	45.25	49.76	46.45	48.16	47.15	7.26	2.41	0.36	SC	-2.05	0
57	SD	378	388	38.44	35.89	35.10	41.06	41.47	41.34	42.78	41.29	4.34	6.89	7.68	SD	0.79	1
58	TN	2,319	2,437	42.53	43.18	41.60	48.92	49.87	48.14	49.33	48.98	6.80	6.15	7.73	TN	1.58	0
59	TX	7,950	7,411	38.22	42.02	41.50	42.93	44.96	43.06	45.35	43.65	7.13	3.33	3.85	TX	0.52	1
60	UT	1,022	928	26.00	28.15	31.50	34.01	35.93	33.70	36.63	34.55	10.63	8.48	5.13	UT	-3.35	0
61
62	VT	316	312	58.94	66.54	68.80	58.21	58.79	58.07	60.53	58.36	1.59	-6.01	-8.27	VT	-2.26	0
63	VA	3,134	3,198	45.48	49.83	52.70	48.50	50.06	49.21	49.59	49.26	4.11	-0.24	-3.11	VA	-2.87	0
64	WA	2,851	2,859	52.82	56.82	56.50	55.02	55.24	56.26	55.97	55.51	3.15	-0.85	-0.53	WA	0.32	1
65	WV	798	756	43.20	40.25	41.70	47.67	49.92	46.12	51.20	47.90	8.00	10.95	9.50	WV	-1.45	0
66	WI	3,010	2,997	49.70	52.10	52.00	52.31	52.52	51.52	53.54	52.12	3.84	1.44	1.54	WI	0.10	1
67	WY	247	243	29.07	32.57	28.90	35.04	35.13	35.37	39.38	35.18	10.31	6.81	10.48	WY	3.67	0
68
69
70	AK	293
71	AL	2060
72	AR	1140
73	AZ	2239
74	CA	12807
75	CO	2097
76	CT	1524
77	DC	270
78	DE	385
79	FL	7372
80	GA	3332
81	HI	433
82	IA	1522
83	ID	585
84	IL	5672
85	IN	2598
86	KS	1188
87	KY	1930
88	LA	2067
89	MA	3085
90	MD	2413
91	ME	736
92	MI	4818
93	MN	2887
94	MO	2815
95	MS	1263
96	MT	482
97	NC	3639
98	ND	330
99	NE	793
100	NH	677
101	NJ	3693
102	NM	837
103	NV	871
104	NY	7698
105	OH	5485
106	OK	1541
107	OR	1924
108	PA	5845
109	RI	467
110	SC	1899
111	SD	378
112	TN	2319
113	TX	7950
114	UT	1022
115	VA	3134
116	VT	316
117	WA	2851
118	WI	3010
119	WV	798
120	WY	247


1					------------------Returning 2004 election voters based on -----------------------
2	2008		Obama	Unadjusted	Recorded	Cast	Exit Poll	True Vote	Average
3		Votes	recorded	Exit Poll	True Vote 1	True Vote 2	True Vote 3	True Vote 4	True Vote 1-3
4	Total	131145	52.87	58.09	54.34	54.84	56.68	57.29	55.37
5				Nat TV Model	54.48	55.23	56.83	57.96	55.51
6
7	AL	2126	38.70	52.00	46.04	48.15	49.25	52.20	47.81
8	AK	304	37.90	49.08	46.25	47.88	49.23	48.30	47.79
9	AZ	2497	44.90	51.42	51.63	51.72	51.72	46.59	51.69
10	AR	1092	38.90	50.60	50.15	53.40	50.60	53.60	51.38
11	CA	13828	61.00	67.00	60.56	60.94	64.12	63.30	61.87
12
13	CO	2308	53.70	51.91	53.55	54.01	55.39	56.20	54.32
14	CT	1610	60.60	73.38	61.37	62.62	66.39	67.00	63.46
15	DE	408	61.90	68.61	59.53	59.87	64.50	63.00	61.30
16	DC	306	92.50	92.03	87.84	86.50	88.66	87.90	87.67
17	FL	7951	50.90	52.09	53.24	54.19	55.64	56.20	54.36
18
19	GA	4183	46.90	51.11	51.13	51.29	51.47	54.40	51.30
20	HI	457	71.80	70.39	60.12	60.24	62.69	65.80	61.02
21	ID	644	36.00	41.83	41.39	41.82	42.59	43.10	41.93
22	IL	5436	61.90	66.31	57.80	58.79	59.01	60.70	58.53
23	IN	2758	49.90	55.66	48.67	49.79	49.36	53.40	49.27
24
25	IA	1501	53.90	56.90	54.04	54.21	55.04	56.50	54.43
26	KS	1219	41.60	46.13	45.34	45.35	45.70	49.20	45.46
27	KY	1952	41.10	46.81	47.01	48.63	47.14	50.90	47.59
28	LA	2149	39.90	45.94	48.89	50.15	49.72	53.80	49.59
29	ME	716	57.70	62.05	57.63	57.88	59.00	59.50	58.17
30
31	MD	2611	61.90	67.20	61.57	61.69	63.80	64.60	62.35
32	MA	3044	61.80	67.01	63.66	64.14	66.25	66.80	64.68
33	MI	4865	57.40	62.21	56.35	56.50	58.45	58.80	57.10
34	MN	2759	54.10	61.86	55.26	55.60	58.46	58.10	56.44
35	MS	1439	43.00	48.43	48.56	50.36	53.95	53.10	50.96
36
37	MO	2846	49.30	57.50	52.27	52.84	54.17	56.20	53.09
38	MT	473	47.20	54.37	47.26	48.82	46.38	49.00	47.49
39	NE	844	41.60	49.24	43.85	44.34	46.56	46.90	44.92
40	NV	1027	55.10	56.34	55.98	56.69	58.76	58.60	57.14
41	NH	708	54.10	61.65	56.26	56.29	60.70	57.90	57.75
42
43	NJ	3637	57.20	63.84	57.02	57.35	60.08	61.50	58.15
44	NM	846	56.90	58.82	54.64	56.27	57.26	58.00	56.06
45	NY	7559	62.80	71.54	61.59	62.02	65.71	65.40	63.11
46	NC	4370	49.70	53.52	52.51	53.18	55.80	54.40	53.83
47	ND	321	44.50	38.88	43.67	45.05	43.09	47.10	43.94
48
49	OH	5483	51.40	56.28	53.63	54.47	57.14	55.50	55.08
50	OK	1507	34.40	40.62	42.26	43.66	41.85	48.40	42.59
51	OR	1818	56.70	58.45	55.19	55.93	55.82	52.30	55.65
52	PA	5747	54.50	63.77	55.52	55.73	58.36	58.00	56.54
53	RI	507	63.10	67.47	64.27		65.89	68.60	65.08
54
55	SC	2100	44.90	47.55	48.91	51.93	51.82	53.60	50.89
56	SD	390	44.70	48.72	47.12	47.81	45.48	49.30	46.80
57	TN	2516	41.80	47.67	49.63	50.98	50.03	53.90	50.21
58	TX	8435	43.60	46.22	46.48	48.05	48.86	49.90	47.80
59	UT	939	34.30	31.53	37.07	40.25	38.62	42.30	38.65
60
61	VT	308	67.50	71.46	62.14	62.26	67.32	62.80	63.91
62	VA	3650	52.60	62.49	55.68	56.22	58.16	58.00	56.69
63	WA	3073	57.40	57.94	58.21	58.30	60.67	60.10	59.06
64	WV	741	42.60	45.14	48.56	49.77	46.45	53.70	48.26
65	WI	2887	56.20	63.30	54.26	54.34	55.92	56.50	54.84
66	WY	250	32.50	34.06	39.25	39.68	41.55	41.30	40.16


1
2															2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
3
4
5
6									12:22am (13047 respondents)							Final (match to recorded vote)							True Vote
7			Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
8
9	CATEGORY			Kerry	Bush	Other			Kerry	Bush	Other					Kerry	Bush	Other					Kerry	Bush	Other
10	Average			50.73%	47.97%	1.29%			50.83%	47.92%	1.25%					47.94%	51.11%	0.96%					53.41%	46.59%	1.03%
11	Total Votes			62.04	58.67	1.58			62.16	58.6	1.53					58.62	62.5	1.17					67.15	58.59	1.29
12
13	Gender			50.93%	48.07%	1.00%			50.78%	48.22%	1.00%					47.78%	51.22%	1.00%					53.24%	45.76%	1.00%
14	Party-ID			51.38%	47.55%	1.07%			51.07%	47.85%	1.08%					47.89%	51.22%	0.89%					53.34%	45.66%	1.00%
15	Voted 2000			51.61%	46.93%	1.46%			51.43%	47.60%	0.97%					48.48%	51.11%	0.41%					53.33%	45.35%	1.32%
16	Region			50.33%	48.15%	1.52%			50.53%	47.95%	1.52%					48.24%	51.08%	0.68%					53.43%	45.57%	1.00%
17	Education			50.37%	48.26%	1.37%			50.43%	48.18%	1.39%					47.82%	51.24%	0.94%					53.53%	45.47%	1.00%
18
19	Race								50.98%	47.61%	1.41%					47.81%	50.99%	1.20%					53.34%	45.66%	1.00%
20	Age			50.46%	47.43%	2.11%			50.26%	47.69%	2.05%					47.96%	51.28%	0.76%					53.36%	45.64%	1.00%
21	Income			50.84%	47.97%	1.19%			51.07%	47.75%	1.18%					48.13%	51.02%	0.85%					53.45%	45.55%	1.00%
22	Ideology			48.75%	50.04%	1.21%			50.18%	48.60%	1.22%					47.25%	51.54%	1.21%					53.51%	45.49%	1.00%
23	Religion								50.78%	48.01%	1.21%					47.99%	50.94%	1.07%					53.39%	45.61%	1.00%
24
25	Military			51.43%	47.42%	1.16%			51.20%	47.62%	1.18%					48.38%	50.44%	1.18%					53.56%	45.44%	1.00%
26	Decided			51.24%	47.91%	0.85%			51.23%	47.93%	0.84%					47.50%	51.22%	1.28%					53.40%	45.60%	1.00%
27
28	1.96*stdev								0.79%	0.59%	0.62%					0.68%	0.52%	0.50%					0.18%	0.10%	0.06%
29
30	2pty vote 97.5% Confidence
31	Max								51.62%	48.51%	1.88%					48.62%	51.63%	1.46%					53.59%	46.69%	1.09%
32	Min								50.04%	47.33%	0.63%					47.25%	50.59%	0.45%					53.22%	46.49%	0.97%
33
34
35	GENDER	Sample	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other	Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
36	Male	5987	43.83%	47%	52%	1%	56.3	46%	47%	52%	1%			56.3	46%	44%	55%	1%			57.8	46%	50%	49%	1%
37	Fem	7672	56.17%	54%	45%	1%	66	54%	54%	45%	1%			66	54%	51%	48%	1%			67.9	54%	56%	43%	1%
38
39	Share	13659	100%	50.93%	48.07%	1.00%		100%	50.78%	48.22%	1%			Total	100%	47.78%	51.22%	1%			Total	100%	53.24%	45.76%	1%
40	Votes		122.3	62.29	58.79	1.22		122.3	62.1	58.97	1.22			122.3	122.3	58.43	62.64	1.22			125.7	125.74	66.94	57.54	1.26
41
42	PARTY ID														Dem -1%; Rep +2%; Ind -1%
43	Dem	5020	38.49%	91%	9%	0%	46.5	38%	91%	9%	0%			45.2	37%	89%	11%	0%			47.8	38%	92%	7%	1%
44	Rep	4531	34.74%	7%	93%	0%	42.8	35%	7%	93%	0%			45.2	37%	6%	93%	1%			44	35%	7%	92%	1%
45	Ind	3490	26.76%	52%	44%	4%	33	27%	52%	44%	4%			31.8	26%	49%	49%	2%			33.9	27%	59%	40%	1%
46
47	Share	13041	100.00%	51.38%	47.55%	1.07%		100%	51.07%	47.85%	1.08%			Total	100%	47.89%	51.22%	0.89%			Total	100%	53.34%	45.66%	1%
48	Votes			62.83	58.16	1.31		122.3	62.46	58.52	1.32			122.3	122.3	58.57	62.64	1.09			125.7	125.74	67.07	57.41	1.26
49
50	VOTED IN 2000														Gore -2%+ Bush +2%
51	New						13.5	11%	55%	43%	2%
52	DNV	585	18.33%	57%	41%	2%	7.3	6%	61%	37%	2%			20.8	17%	54%	45%	1%			21.4	17%	60%	38%	2%
53	Gore	1221	38.25%	91%	8%	1%	47.7	39%	91%	8%	1%			45.2	37%	90%	10%	0%			51.6	41%	91%	8%	1%
54	Bush	1267	39.69%	10%	90%	0%	50.1	41%	10%	90%	0%			52.6	43%	9%	91%	0%			49	39%	10%	90%	0%
55	Other	119	3.73%	64%	17%	19%	3.7	3%	71%	21%	8%			3.7	3%	71%	21%	8%			3.8	3%	64%	17%	19%
56
57	Share	3192	100.00%	51.61%	46.93%	1.46%		100%	51.43%	47.6%	0.97%			Total	100%	48.48%	51.11%	0.41%			Total	100%	53.33%	45.35%	1.32%
58	Votes			63.12	57.40	1.78		122.3	62.9	58.21	1.19			122.3	122.3	59.29	62.5	0.5			125.7	125.74	67.06	57.02	1.66
59
60	REGION														South +1%; West -1%
61	East	2922	21.30%	58%	41%	1%	26.9	22%	58%	41%	1%			26.9	22%	56%	43%	1%			27.7	22%	61%	38%	1%
62	Midw	3686	26.87%	50%	49%	1%	31.8	26%	50%	49%	1%			31.8	26%	48%	51%	1%			32.7	26%	53%	46%	1%
63	South	4463	32.53%	44%	54%	2%	37.9	31%	44%	54%	2%			39.1	32%	42%	58%	0%			39	31%	46%	53%	1%
64	West	2648	19.30%	53%	45%	2%	25.7	21%	53%	45%	2%			24.5	20%	50%	49%	1%			26.4	21%	57%	42%	1%
65
66	Share	13719	100.00%	50.33%	48.15%	1.52%	Total	100%	50.53%	47.95%	1.52%			Total	100%	48.24%	51.08%	0.68%			Total	100%	53.43%	45.57%	1%
67	Votes			61.55	58.89	1.86		122.3	61.8	58.64	1.86			122.3	122.3	59	62.47	0.83			125.7	125.74	67.18	57.3	1.26
68
69
70	EDUCATION														Some college+1%; Post Grad -1%
71							Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
72	NoHS	400	4.01%	53%	46%	1%	4.9	4%	53%	46%	1%			4.9	4%	50%	49%	1%			5	4%	53%	46%	1%
73	HSG	2095	20.98%	50%	48%	2%	26.9	22%	50%	48%	2%			26.9	22%	47%	52%	1%			27.7	22%	54%	45%	1%
74	Col	3217	32.22%	48%	51%	1%	37.9	31%	48%	51%	1%			39.1	32%	46%	54%	0%			39	31%	51%	48%	1%
75	ColG	2628	26.32%	49%	50%	1%	31.8	26%	49%	50%	1%			31.8	26%	46%	52%	2%			32.7	26%	52%	47%	1%
76	PostG	1646	16.48%	57%	41%	2%	20.8	17%	57%	41%	2%			19.6	16%	55%	44%	1%			21.4	17%	60%	39%	1%
77
78	Share	9986	100.00%	50.37%	48.26%	1.37%		100%	50.43%	48.18%	1.39%			Total	100%	47.82%	51.24%	0.94%			Total	100%	53.53%	45.47%	1%
79	Votes			61.60	59.02	1.68		122.3	61.67	58.92	1.7			122.3	122.3	58.48	62.66	1.15			125.7	125.74	67.31	57.17	1.26
80
81	RACE AND GENDER
82	WMale						44	36%	40%	59%	1%			44	36%	37%	62%	1%			45.3	36%	43%	56%	1%
83	WFem						50.1	41%	47%	51%	2%			50.1	41%	44%	55%	1%			51.6	41%	49%	50%	1%
84	NwMale						12.2	10%	73%	26%	1%			12.2	10%	67%	30%	3%			12.6	10%	75%	24%	1%
85	NwFem						15.9	13%	77%	22%	1%			15.9	13%	75%	24%	1%			16.3	13%	79%	20%	1%
86
87	Share							100%	50.98%	47.61%	1.41%			Total	100%	47.81%	50.99%	1.2%			Total	100%	53.34%	45.66%	1%
88	Votes							122.3	62.35	58.22	1.72			122.3	122.3	58.47	62.36	1.47			125.7	125.74	67.07	57.41	1.26
89
90	AGE
91	18-29	2591	19.00%	56%	42%	2%	20.8	17%	56%	42%	2%			20.8	17%	54%	45%	1%			21.4	17%	61%	38%	1%
92	30-44	4135	30.32%	48%	49%	3%	35.5	29%	48%	49%	3%			35.5	29%	46%	53%	1%			36.5	29%	51%	48%	1%
93	45-59	4262	31.25%	51%	47%	2%	36.7	30%	51%	47%	2%			36.7	30%	48%	51%	1%			37.7	30%	54%	45%	1%
94	60+	2651	19.44%	48%	51%	1%	29.4	24%	48%	51%	1%			29.4	24%	46%	54%	0%			30.2	24%	50%	49%	1%
95
96	Share	13639	100.00%	50.46%	47.43%	2.11%		100%	50.26%	47.69%	2.05%			Total	100%	47.96%	51.28%	0.76%			Total	100%	53.36%	45.64%	1%
97	Votes			61.71	58.01	2.58		122.3	61.47	58.32	2.51			122.3	122.3	58.65	62.71	0.93			125.7	125.74	67.09	57.39	1.26
98
99	INCOME														0-15 -1%; 75-100 +1%
100	0-15K	1011	8.21%	65%	34%	1%	11	9%	65%	34%	1%			9.8	8%	63%	36%	1%			11.3	9%	69%	30%	1%
101	15-30	1804	14.64%	60%	39%	1%	18.3	15%	60%	39%	1%			18.3	15%	57%	42%	1%			18.9	15%	63%	36%	1%
102	30-50	2654	21.54%	53%	46%	1%	26.9	22%	53%	46%	1%			26.9	22%	50%	49%	1%			27.7	22%	55%	44%	1%
103	50-75	2850	23.13%	46%	53%	1%	28.1	23%	46%	53%	1%			28.1	23%	43%	56%	1%			28.9	23%	48%	51%	1%
104	75-100	1722	13.98%	48%	51%	1%	15.9	13%	48%	51%	1%			17.1	14%	45%	55%	0%			16.3	13%	49%	50%	1%
105	100-150	1384	11.23%	43%	55%	2%	13.5	11%	43%	55%	2%			13.5	11%	42%	57%	1%			13.8	11%	48%	51%	1%
106	150-200	483	3.92%	43%	55%	2%	4.9	4%	43%	55%	2%			4.9	4%	42%	58%	0%			5	4%	45%	54%	1%
107	200+	413	3.35%	43%	55%	2%	3.7	3%	43%	55%	2%			3.7	3%	35%	63%	2%			3.8	3%	40%	59%	1%
108
109	Share	12321	100.00%	50.84%	47.97%	1.19%		100%	51.07%	47.75%	1.18%			Total	100%	48.13%	51.02%	0.85%			Total	100%	53.45%	45.55%	1%
110	Votes			62.18	58.67	1.45		122.3	62.46	58.4	1.44			122.3	122.3	58.86	62.39	1.04			125.7	125.74	67.21	57.27	1.26
111
112															Lib -1%; Con +1%
113	IDEOLOGY						Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
114	Lib	2909	21.02%	86%	12%	2%	26.9	22%	86%	12%	2%			25.7	21%	85%	13%	2%			27.7	22%	92%	7%	1%
115	Mod	5968	43.12%	57%	42%	1%	55	45%	57%	42%	1%			55	45%	54%	45%	1%			56.6	45%	60%	39%	1%
116	Con	4962	35.86%	17%	82%	1%	40.4	33%	17%	82%	1%			41.6	34%	15%	84%	1%			41.5	33%	19%	80%	1%
117
118	Share	13839	100.00%	48.75%	50.04%	1.21%		100%	50.18%	48.6%	1.22%			Total	100%	47.25%	51.54%	1.21%			Total	100%	53.51%	45.49%	1%
119	Votes			59.63	61.19	1.48		122.3	61.37	59.44	1.49			122.3	122.3	57.78	63.03	1.48			125.7	125.74	67.28	57.2	1.26
120
121	RELIGION
122	Prot						64.8	53%	43%	56%	1%			64.8	53%	40%	59%	1%			66.6	53%	45%	54%	1%
123	Cath						33	27%	50%	49%	1%			33	27%	47%	52%	1%			33.9	27%	53%	46%	1%
124	Jewish						3.7	3%	78%	22%	0%			3.7	3%	74%	25%	1%			3.8	3%	79%	20%	1%
125	Other						8.6	7%	75%	22%	3%			8.6	7%	74%	24%	2%			8.8	7%	78%	21%	1%
126	None						12.2	10%	69%	29%	2%			12.2	10%	67%	32%	1%			12.6	10%	74%	25%	1%
127
128	Share							100%	50.78%	48.01%	1.21%			Total	100%	47.99%	50.94%	1.07%			Total	100%	53.39%	45.61%	1%
129	Votes							122.3	62.1	58.71	1.48			122.3	122.3	58.69	62.3	1.31			125.7	125.74	67.13	57.35	1.26
130
131	MILITARY
132	Yes	1067	15.75%	43%	55%	2%	22	18%	43%	55%	2%			22	18%	41%	57%	2%			22.6	18%	47%	52%	1%
133	No	5709	84.25%	53%	46%	1%	100.3	82%	53%	46%	1%			100.3	82%	50%	49%	1%			103.1	82%	55%	44%	1%
134
135	Share	6776	100.00%	51.43%	47.42%	1.16%		100%	51.2%	47.62%	1.18%			Total	100%	48.38%	50.44%	1.18%			Total	100%	53.56%	45.44%	1%
136	Votes			62.89	57.99	1.42		122.3	62.62	58.24	1.44			122.3	122.3	59.17	61.69	1.44			125.7	125.74	67.35	57.14	1.26
137
138															Today -1%; Last3 +1%
139	WHEN DECIDED						Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other			Votes	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
140
141	Today	499	5.62%	53%	40%	7%	7.3	6%	53%	40%	7%			6.1	5%	52%	45%	3%			7.5	6%	75%	24%	1%
142	3days	305	3.44%	53%	41%	6%	3.7	3%	53%	41%	6%			4.9	4%	55%	42%	3%			3.8	3%	72%	27%	1%
143	7days	208	2.34%	48%	50%	2%	2.4	2%	48%	50%	2%			2.4	2%	48%	51%	1%			2.5	2%	57%	42%	1%
144	30days	902	10.17%	60%	38%	2%	12.2	10%	60%	38%	2%			12.2	10%	54%	44%	2%			12.6	10%	61%	38%	1%
145	Over30	6959	78.43%	50%	50%	0%	96.6	79%	50%	50%	0%			96.6	79%	46%	53%	1%			99.3	79%	50%	49%	1%
146
147	Share	8873	100.00%	51.24%	47.91%	0.85%		100%	51.23%	47.93%	0.84%			Total	100%	47.5%	51.22%	1.28%			Total	100%	53.4%	45.6%	1%
148	Votes			62.67	58.59	1.04		122.3	62.65	58.62	1.03			122.3	122.3	58.09	62.64	1.57			125.7	125.74	67.15	57.34	1.26
149
150	COMMUNITY
151	BigCity	1498	10.93%	64%	36%	0%	15.9	13%	64%	36%	0%			15.9	13%	61%	39%	0%			16.3	13%	72%	27%	1%
152	SmallCity	2814	20.52%	52%	46%	2%	22	18%	52%	46%	2%			22	18%	49%	49%	2%			22.6	18%	56%	43%	1%
153	Suburbs	6193	45.17%	49%	49%	2%	55	45%	49%	49%	2%			55	45%	47%	52%	1%			56.6	45%	51%	48%	1%
154	Small Towns	1160	8.46%	51%	47%	2%	9.8	8%	51%	47%	2%			9.8	8%	48%	50%	2%			10.1	8%	52%	47%	1%
155	Rural	2046	14.92%	42%	57%	1%	19.6	16%	42%	57%	1%			19.6	16%	40%	59%	1%			20.1	16%	43%	56%	1%
156
157	Share	13711	100.00%	50.38%	47.99%	1.63%	122.3	100%	50.53%	47.89%	1.58%			Total	100%	48.14%	50.73%	1.13%				100%	53.43%	45.57%	1%
158	Votes			61.61	58.69	2.00		122.3	61.8	58.57	1.93			122.3	122.3	58.87	62.04	1.38				125.74	67.18	57.3	1.26
159	COMMUNITY
160
161	Urban	3504	29.90%	59%	40%	1%	37.9	31%	59%	40%	1%			37.9	31%	54%	45%	1%			37.9	31%	62%	37%	1%
162	Suburbs	5441	46.43%	50%	49%	1%	55	45%	50%	49%	1%			55	45%	47%	52%	1%			55	45%	51%	48%	1%
163	Small/Rural	2774	23.67%	45%	54%	1%	29.4	24%	45%	54%	1%			29.4	24%	42%	57%	1%			29.4	24%	47%	52%	1%
164
165		11719	100.00%	51.51%	47.49%	1.00%	122.3	100%	51.59%	47.41%	1%			122.3	100%	47.97%	51.03%	1%			125.7	100%	53.45%	45.55%	1%
166				62.99	58.08	1.22		122.3	63.09	57.98	1.22				122.3	58.66	62.41	1.22					67.21	57.27	1.26
167
168	BUSH APPROVAL
169	Approve	3489	50.47%	11%	88%	1%	62.4	51%	11%	88%	1%			64.8	53%	9%	90%	1%			58.7	48%	11%	88%	1%
170	Dissapr	3424	49.53%	93%	5%	2%	59.9	49%	93%	5%	2%			57.5	47%	93%	6%	1%			63.6	52%	93%	5%	2%
171
172	Share	6913	100.00%	51.61%	46.89%	1.50%	Total	100	51.18%	47.33%	1.49%			Total	100%	48.48%	50.52%	1%			Total	100%	53.64%	44.84%	1.52%
173	Votes			63.12	57.35	1.83	122.3	122.3	62.59	57.88	1.82			122.3	122.3	59.29	61.78	1.22			125.7	125.74	67.45	56.38	1.91
174
175	153.25
176									How Voted in 2000
177											Return Mix%		New voters%		New voters		Change		%Change
178	Time						Resp		Kerry	Bush	Gore	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	MoE
179	4pm						1,916		51	47	39	42	62	37	1,188	709	-	-	-	-	2.17%
180	730pm						2,545		50.9	47.1	38	41	59	39	1,502	993	314	284	52.51%	47.49%	1.91%
181	1222am						2,698		51.2	47.5	39	41	57	41	1,538	1,106	36	114	24.27%	75.73%	1.87%
182	Final						3,168		48.3	50.7	37	43	54	45	1,711	1,426	173	319	35.10%	64.90%	1.74%
183
184
185	Unadjusted						3,182		51.7		38.4	39.5	57	41	1,814	1,305	1,814	1,305	58.16%	41.84%	1.72%
186
187
188											National Exit Poll (biased for Bush)
189										(2000 returning voter mix? Gore won by 4-6m)
190										2000	Cast	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
191										DNV	23,116	18.38%	57%	41%	2%
192										Gore	48,248	38.37%	91%	8%	1%
193										Bush	49,670	39.50%	10%	90%	0%
194										Other	4,703	3.74%	64%	17%	19%
195
196										Total	125,737	100%	51.75%	46.79%	1.46%
197												125,737	65,070	58,829	1,838
198
199											How Voted in 2000 (used above)
200											Sample	DNV	Gore	Bush	Other
201											3,182	585	1,221	1,257	119
202												18.38%	38.37%	39.50%	3.74%


1
2					2004 Unadjusted National Exit Poll vs. Final
3	Roper E/M exit poll website:
4	http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/catalogResult.cfm?keyword=exit+poll&keywordOptions=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=&country=1&studiesOnly=&organization=&fromDate=11%2F02%2F2004&toDate=11%2F02%2F2004&sortBy=DESC&label=&questionViewId=&resultsCurrentPage=3&paging=true&type=&x=7&y=11
5			1
6			Unadjusted	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other
7			Respondents	13,660	7,064	6,414	182
8			Share	100%	51.71%	46.95%	1.33%
9			NEP Final	13,660	6,594	6,930	136
10			Share	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
11			Adjustment		-3.44%	3.78%	-0.33%
12
13
14
15			2						3
16				2004 Unadjusted NEP (13047 respondents)					2004 Final NEP (13660 respondents)
17			Voted 2000		Unadjusted	12:22am Vote shares			Adjusted	Adjusted shares
18			Unadjusted	Voted 2000	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
19			585	New/DNV	18.38%	57%	41%	2%	17%	54%	44%	2%
20			1,221	Gore	38.37%	91%	8%	1%	37%	90%	10%	0%
21			1,257	Bush	39.50%	10%	90%	0%	43%	9%	91%	0%
22			119	Other	3.74%	64%	17%	19%	3%	64%	14%	22%
23
24			3,182	Share	100%	51.74%	46.80%	1.46%	100%	48.27%	50.73%	1.00%
25			1.74%	Votes (mil)	125,736	65,058	58,840	1,838	122,295	59,032	62,040	1,223
26
27
28				4					5
29				Gender	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other
30				Female	54%	54%	45%	1%	54%	51%	48%	1%
31				Male	46%	47%	52%	1%	46%	44%	55%	1%
32				Total	100%	50.78%	48.22%	1.00%	100%	47.78%	51.22%	1.00%
33				Unadj mix	56.2/43.8%	50.93%	48.07%	1.00%
34
35									Kerry Vote Share Sensitivity
36
37		Gender	Total	Male	Female			Share of	Share of Females				Female Mix:	54.00%
38		Respondents	13,660	5,988	7,672			Males	51%	53%	54%	56%
39		Unadjusted	100%	43.8%	56.2%			50%	50.54%	51.62%	52.16%	53.24%	True Vote
40		NEP Final	100%	46%	54%			48%	49.62%	50.70%	51.24%	52.32%
41		Adjustment		2.2%	-2.2%			47%	49.16%	50.24%	50.78%	51.86%
42								44%	47.78%	48.86%	49.40%	50.48%
43
44								Bush 2000	Gore 2000 Returning Voter Mix
45		Voted 2k	Total	DNV	Gore	Bush	Other	Voter Mix	37%	38.37%	39%	41%
46		Respondents	3182	585	1221	1257	119	37.5%	52.22%	52.68%	52.90%	53.58%	True Vote
47		Unadjusted	100%	18.4%	38.4%	39.5%	3.7%	38%	51.98%	52.45%	52.66%	53.34%
48		NEP Final	100%	17%	37%	43%	3%	39.5%	51.28%	51.74%	51.96%	52.64%
49		Adjustment		-1.4%	-1.4%	3.5%	-0.7%	43%	49.63%	50.10%	50.31%	50.99%
50
51
52		Race	Total	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Other
53		Respondents	13526	10608	1473	1037	201	207
54		Unadjusted	100%	78.4%	10.9%	7.7%	1.5%	1.5%
55		NEP Final	100%	79%	12%	6%	2%	1%
56		Adjustment		0.6%	1.1%	-1.7%	0.5%	-0.5%
57
58		Age	Total	18-24	25-29	30-39	40-44	45-49	50-59	60-64	65-74	75+
59		Respondents	13639	1422	1169	2555	1580	1622	2640	856	1145	650
60		Unadjusted	100%	10.4%	8.6%	18.7%	11.6%	11.9%	19.4%	6.3%	8.4%	4.8%
61		NEP Final	95.4%	18-29	17%	30-44	29%	45-59	30%		60+	19%
62		Adjustment			-2%		-1.3%		-1.2%			6.3%
63
64		Party ID	Total	Dem	Rep	Ind
65		Respondents	13121	5020	4531	3570
66		Unadjusted	127.2%	38.3%	34.5%	27.2%
67		NEP Final	126%	37%	37%	26%
68		Adjustment		-1.3%	2.5%	-1.2%
69
70		Philosophy	Total	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
71		Respondents	12939	2909	5968	4062
72		Unadjusted	100%	22.5%	46.1%	31.4%
73		NEP Final	100%	21%	45%	34%
74		Adjustment		-1.5%	-1.1%	2.6%
75
76		First-time voter	Total	Yes	No
77		Respondents	6704	813	5891
78		Unadjusted	100%	12.1%	87.9%
79		NEP Final	100%	11%	89%
80		Adjustment		-1.1%	1.1%
81
82		Income	Total	0-15	15-30	30-50	50-75	75-100	100-150	150-200	200+
83		Respondents	12321	1011	1804	2654	2850	1722	1384	483	413
84		Unadjusted	100%	8.2%	14.6%	21.5%	23.1%	14%	11.2%	3.9%	3.4%
85		NEP Final	100%	8%	15%	22%	23%	18%	11%	-	3%
86		Adjustment		-0.2%	0.4%	0.5%	-0.1%	4%	-0.2%		-0.4%
87
88		Education	Total	No HS	HSG	Col	ColGrad	Postgrad
89		Respondents	9986	400	2095	3217	2628	1646
90		Unadjusted	100%	4%	21%	32.2%	26.3%	16.5%
91		NEP Final	100%	4%	22%	32%	26%	16%
92		Adjustment		0%	1%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.5%
93
94		Bush Approval	Total	Str Appr	Appr	Dissap	Str Dis
95		Respondents	6913	2131	1358	846	2578
96		Unadjusted	100%	30.8%	19.6%	12.2%	37.3%
97		Approve/Dissap		50.4%		49.5%
98		NEP Final		53%		47%
99		Adjustment		2.6%		-2.5%
100
101		Party ID	Total	Dem	Rep	Other
102		Respondents	13121	5020	4531	3570
103		Unadjusted	100%	38.3%	34.5%	27.2%
104		NEP Final	100%	37%	37%	26%
105		Adjustment		-1.3%	2.5%	-1.2%
106
107		Bush Approval	Total	Yes	No
108		Respondents	6913	3489	3424
109		Unadjusted	100%	50.5%	49.5%
110		NEP Final		53%	47%
111		Adjustment		2.5%	-2.5%
112
113		Region	Total	NE	MidWest	South	West
114		Respondents	13719	2922	3686	4463	2648
115		Unadjusted	100%	21.3%	26.9%	32.5%	19.3%
116		NEP Final	100%	22%	26%	32%	20%
117		Adjustment		0.70%	-0.90%	-0.5%	0.70%
118
119		Size -5	Total	500k+	50-500k	Suburbs	10-50k	Rural
120		Respondents	13711	1498	2814	6193	1160	2046
121		Unadjusted	100%	10.9%	20.5%	45.2%	8.5%	14.9%
122		NEP Final	100%	12%	19%	45%	8%	16%
123		Adjustment		1.1%	-1.5%	-0.2%	-0.5%	1.1%
124
125		Size -3	Total	City	Suburb	Rural
126		Respondents	11719	3504	5441	2774
127		Unadjusted	100%	29.9%	46.4%	23.7%
128		NEP Final	100%	31%	45%	24%
129		Adjustment		1.1%	-1.4%	0.3%


1
2													2004 State Exit Poll Timeline
3
4	WPE	3		1 VNS; 2 DSS; 3 IMS																																												Kerry wins 8 of 17 Highest WPE
5				Note: Diff is the difference in margin between the exit poll and recorded vote
6																																					2=party			3
7																																			1.92%	std	UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS	abs(std)	1.40%	stdev	1.50%							Kerry wins 10 of 17 Middle WPE
8		UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS					30%	WPE-ADJUSTED EXIT POLLS						BEST GEO					COMPOSITE 12:40am				FINAL EXIT POLLS					Unadj	TRUE VOTE MODEL				Unadj		0.04%	var	WPE METHOD	abs(var)	0.02%	var	0.02%							Kerry wins 2 of 16 smallest WPE (incl paper ballot OR)													Margin discrepancy
9		(76,000 respondents)					Cluster		Method:	IMS													(forced to match the recorded vote)					ExitPoll		Method 3			ExitPoll		composite		1=VNS, 2=DSS, 3=IMS	composite																							Total WPE
10		Kerry	Bush	Margin	Diff	EV	MoE	Kerry	Bush	Margin	WPE	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Diff	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	Diff	EV	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV		Flip	Kerry	Bush	Margin	EV	TV Discr		Red-shift	weight	Kerry	Bush	Abs(Red-shift)		RS-MoE						Kerry	Kerry	Kerry	Kerry	WPE				-0.2444139124	-0.1987402679	-0.225388323				IMS				Margin Discrepancy		Votes/ 3.0m	Cum Vote	Discrep/		True Vote 4

11	Total	51.08	47.59	3.49	5.95	349	3.54	52.00	47.03	4.97	7.39	338	51.04	48.49	2.56	5.02	302	50.26	49.11	1.15	3.6	289	48.27	50.73	-2.46	252		97	54.32	44.16	10.16	384	-6.7		1.63%	1.96%	50.34	49.66	2.09%					2004											1	2	3			122294	9044			State	WPE/IMS	Votes (000)	Bush Margin	Discrepancy	Total Votes	Lever	Kerry	Bush
12																																												K 2pty		STATE	WPE/IMS	BEST GEO	COMPOSITE	RECORDED	WPE	Kerry win	MoE	state	VNS	DSS	IMS	weight		Votes	Deviation	State	Discrep	Total	6.20	9044
13	AL	39.7	59.1	-19.4	6.2		4.90	41.8	57.5	-15.7	10.0		42.0	57.5	-15.5	10.2		40.6	58.7	-18.1	7.6		36.8	62.5	-25.7		AL		49.2	49.7	-0.5		-18.9	1	3.76%	1.54%	42.11	57.89	3.76%	9	-1.14%	Alabama	9	42.1	1.0	MS	49	46	43	40	18.5	B	3.77%	AL	(11.3)	(19.5)	(10.0)	0.015	AL	1,883	188	CA	1441	CA	11.6	1441	48.0%	1441	15.9%		43.1	56.2
14	AK	44.7	51.9	-7.2	18.3		4.13	40.2	56.4	-16.3	9.3		41.2	57.4	-16.2	9.3		39.0	58.8	-19.8	5.7		35.5	61.1	-25.5		AK		40.3	57.1	-16.8		9.6	1	2.27%	0.26%	41.58	58.42	2.27%	3	-1.87%	Alaska	3	41.6	2.0	CT	62	59	58	54	16.0	K	3.18%	AK	(9.6)	(10.9)	(9.3)	0.003	AK	313	29	NY	902	NY	12.2	902	30.1%	2342	10.0%		34.0	62.6
15	AZ	46.3	52.8	-6.6	3.9		2.95	44.6	54.7	-10.2	0.3		46.5	53.5	-7.0	3.5		46.8	53.2	-6.4	4.1		44.4	54.9	-10.5		AZ		49.4	48.8	0.6	10	-7.1	1	1.67%	1.65%	44.88	55.12	1.67%	10	-1.28%	Arizona	10	44.9	3.0	DE	61	62	58	53	15.9	K	2.27%	AZ	(4.6)	(6.8)	(0.3)	0.016	AZ	2,013	6	OH	597	OH	10.6	597	19.9%	2939	6.6%		47.8	51.5
16	AR	44.4	54.8	-10.4	-0.6		3.39	45.2	53.7	-8.5	1.3		46.8	52.4	-5.6	4.2		47.0	52.2	-5.2	4.6		44.5	54.3	-9.8		AR		51.1	47.5	3.6	6	-14.0	1	2.11%	0.86%	45.70	54.30	2.11%	6	-1.29%	Arkansas	6	45.7	4.0	VT	67	67	65	59	15.2	K	2.61%	AR	(0.5)	(1.0)	(1.3)	0.009	AR	1,055	14	FL	594	FL	7.8	594	19.8%	3533	6.6%		48.5	50.4
17	CA	53.9	44.2	9.7	-0.2	55	3.39	60.1	38.6	21.5	11.6	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55	56.5	43.5	13.0	3.1	55	54.3	44.4	9.9	55	CA		60.1	38.1	22.0	55	-12.3	1	0.86%	10.14%	60.91	39.09	0.86%	55	-2.53%	California	55	60.9	5.0	NH	57	57	55	50	14.0	K	2.61%	CA	(10.9)	(13.8)	(11.6)	0.101	CA	12,420	1441	TX	563	TX	7.6	563	18.8%	4096	6.2%		62.0	36.7
18																																													6.0	NY	64	65	63	58	12.2	K										PA	485	PA	8.4	485	16.2%	4580	5.4%
19	CO	49.3	49.2	0.1	4.8	9	2.39	50.1	48.6	1.4	6.1	9	47.0	52.5	-5.5	-0.8		47.7	51.4	-3.7	1.0		47.0	51.7	-4.7		CO	9	51.9	45.9	6.1	9	-6.0		0.29%	1.74%	50.71	49.29	0.29%	9	-2.10%	Colorado	9	50.7	7.0	NC	50	48	48	44	11.9	B	1.84%	CO	(6.1)	(5.3)	(6.1)	0.017	CO	2,130	130	NC	417	NC	11.9	417	13.9%	4997	4.6%		53.2	45.5
20	CT	62.5	36.0	26.5	16.1	7	4.25	62.3	35.9	26.4	16.0	7	59.3	39.6	19.7	9.3	7	58.1	40.5	17.6	7.2	7	54.3	43.9	10.4	7	CT		63.1	34.9	28.2	7	-1.7		3.45%	1.29%	63.41	36.59	3.45%	7	-0.80%	Connecticut	7	63.4	8.0	CA	60	57	57	54	11.6	K	3.27%	CT	(15.7)	(15.8)	(16.0)	0.013	CT	1,579	253	NJ	329	NJ	9.1	329	11.0%	5326	3.6%		62.3	36.0
21	DE	63.3	36.0	27.3	19.7	3	4.52	97.2	37.8	59.3	15.9	3	61.5	37.9	23.6	16.0	3	57.7	41.2	16.5	8.9	3	89.2	45.8	7.6	3	DE		63.8	34.8	29.0	3	-1.7		4.55%	0.31%	71.99	28.01	4.55%	3	0.03%	Delaware	3	72.0	9.0	OH	54	53	52	49	10.6	B	3.48%	DE	(15.9)	(16.3)	(15.9)	0.003	DE	375	60	MI	310	MI	6.4	310	10.3%	5635	3.4%		63.6	35.5
22	DC	90.7	8.1	82.6	2.8	3	2.50	54.7	7.9	46.8	2.8	3	91.1	8.1	83.0	3.2	3	90.2	8.4	81.8	2.0	3	53.3	9.3	79.8	3	DC		88.3	9.9	78.3	3	4.3		0.94%	0.19%	87.32	12.68	0.94%	3	-1.56%	D. C.	3	87.3	10.0	AL	42	42	41	37	10.0	B	1.92%	DC	(3.4)	(2.6)	(2.8)	0.002	DC	228	6	VA	278	VA	8.7	278	9.3%	5914	3.1%		90.6	7.9
23	FL	50.8	48.0	2.8	7.8	27	2.54	51.0	48.2	2.8	7.8	27	49.2	50.3	-1.1	3.9		49.3	50.1	-0.8	4.2		47.1	52.1	-5.0		FL	27	54.8	43.9	10.9	27	-8.1	1	2.00%	6.22%	51.41	48.59	2.00%	27	-0.54%	Florida	27	51.4	11.0	NV	53	49	49	48	9.9	B	1.95%	FL	(7.6)	(8.0)	(7.8)	0.062	FL	7,610	594	MN	260	MN	9.2	260	8.7%	6174	2.9%		54.6	44.6
24																																													12.0	SC	46	46	45	41	9.7	B										CT	253	CT	16.0	253	8.4%	6426	2.8%
25	GA	41.8	57.4	-15.6	1.0		3.22	42.1	57.3	-15.3	1.3		43.5	56.5	-13.0	3.6		43.0	57.1	-14.1	2.5		41.4	58.0	-16.6		GA		48.5	50.1	-1.6		-14.0	1	0.87%	2.70%	42.31	57.69	0.87%	15	-2.35%	Georgia	15	42.3	13.0	AK	40	41	39	36	9.3	B	2.48%	GA	(2.2)	(2.2)	(1.3)	0.027	GA	3,302	43	WA	229	WA	8.0	229	7.6%	6655	2.5%		44.5	54.9
26	HI	61.3	38.7	22.5	13.8	4	5.69	58.1	41.2	16.9	8.2	4	56.5	43.4	13.1	4.4	4	53.6	46.4	7.2	-1.5	4	54.0	45.3	8.7	4	HI		60.9	37.1	23.8	4	-1.3		-1.14%	0.35%	58.53	41.47	1.14%	4	-4.56%	Hawaii	4	58.5	14.0	MN	56	57	54	51	9.2	K	4.38%	HI	(4.7)	(4.2)	(8.2)	0.004	HI	429	35	MA	224	MA	7.7	224	7.5%	6879	2.5%		62.9	36.4
27	ID	27.8	70.3	-42.4	-4.3		5.08	32.3	66.4	-34.1	4.0		30.9	69.1	-38.2	-0.1		31.6	68.3	-36.7	1.4		30.3	68.4	-38.1		ID		35.9	62.2	-26.3		-16.1	1	0.08%	0.49%	32.73	67.27	0.08%	4	-5.00%	Idaho	4	32.7	15.0	NJ	57	58	55	53	9.1	K	3.91%	ID	(1.0)	0.4	(4.0)	0.005	ID	598	24	MS	213	MS	18.5	213	7.1%	7093	2.4%		27.0	71.7
28	IL	56.0	43.3	12.7	2.3	21	2.87	56.6	42.7	13.8	3.5	21	57.5	42.6	14.9	4.6	21	57.0	42.9	14.1	3.8	21	54.8	44.5	10.3	21	IL		60.8	37.6	23.2	21	-10.5	1	1.58%	4.32%	56.96	43.04	1.58%	21	-1.29%	Illinois	21	57.0	16.0	NE	37	38	36	33	8.7	B	2.21%	IL	(4.4)	(4.0)	(3.5)	0.043	IL	5,274	185	AL	188	AL	10.0	188	6.3%	7281	2.1%		62.0	37.3
29	IN	39.5	59.5	-20.0	0.7		4.95	40.4	58.8	-18.4	2.2		40.5	59.6	-19.1	1.6		41.3	58.8	-17.5	3.2		39.3	59.9	-20.7		IN		45.0	54.0	-9.0		-10.9	1	1.14%	2.02%	40.71	59.29	1.14%	11	-3.81%	Indiana	11	40.7	17.0	VA	50	50	48	45	8.7	B	3.81%	IN	(1.5)	(1.8)	(2.2)	0.020	IN	2,468	54	IL	185	IL	3.5	185	6.2%	7466	2.0%		40.7	58.5
30																																													18.0	PA	55	57	54	51	8.4	K										MD	174	MD	7.3	174	5.8%	7640	1.9%
31	IA	49.3	49.0	0.3	1.0	7	2.55	50.7	48.4	2.3	3.0	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7	50.0	49.0	1.0	1.7	7	49.2	49.9	-0.7		IA	7	49.2	49.6	-0.3		0.7		0.90%	1.23%	51.16	48.84	0.90%	7	-1.65%	Iowa	7	51.2	19.0	HI	58	57	54	54	8.2	K	1.96%	IA	(3.0)	(2.4)	(3.0)	0.012	IA	1,507	45	MO	158	MO	5.8	158	5.3%	7798	1.8%		53.0	46.2
32	KS	34.2	64.6	-30.4	-5.1		4.49	37.2	61.5	-24.3	1.1		36.6	62.8	-26.2	-0.8		34.4	64.6	-30.2	-4.8		36.6	62.0	-25.4		KS		40.3	58.4	-18.1		-12.3	1	-2.60%	0.97%	37.68	62.32	2.60%	6	-1.89%	Kansas	6	37.7	20.0	NM	53	52	51	49	8.0	K	3.45%	KS	(1.7)	(1.5)	(1.1)	0.010	KS	1,188	13	SC	157	SC	9.7	157	5.2%	7955	1.7%		36.3	62.3
33	KY	42.4	56.1	-13.7	6.1		4.43	39.9	59.4	-19.5	0.4		40.6	58.6	-18.0	1.9		40.9	58.3	-17.4	2.5		39.7	59.6	-19.9		KY		42.9	55.9	-13.1		-0.6		1.25%	1.47%	40.20	59.80	1.25%	8	-3.18%	Kentucky	8	40.2	21.0	WA	57	55	54	53	8.0	K	3.41%	KY	0.1	0.5	(0.4)	0.015	KY	1,796	7	WI	144	WI	4.8	144	4.8%	8099	1.6%		38.7	60.5
34	LA	44.2	54.5	-10.3	4.2		3.09	43.5	55.4	-11.9	2.6		43.2	56.3	-13.1	1.4		44.3	54.8	-10.5	4.0		42.2	56.7	-14.5		LA		47.9	51.1	-3.2		-7.1	1	1.92%	1.59%	43.97	56.03	1.92%	9	-1.17%	Louisiana	9	44.0	22.0	FL	51	49	49	47	7.8	B	2.38%	LA	(3.8)	(3.8)	(2.6)	0.016	LA	1,943	51	CO	130	CO	6.1	130	4.3%	8229	1.4%		45.0	54.0
35	ME	55.4	42.3	13.1	4.1	4	2.86	55.6	42.6	13.0	4.0	4	54.3	44.6	9.7	0.7	4	53.9	44.4	9.5	0.5	4	53.6	44.6	9.0	4	ME		56.8	40.8	15.9	4	-2.9		0.18%	0.61%	56.63	43.37	0.18%	4	-2.68%	Maine	4	56.6	23.0	MA	66	66	66	62	7.7	K	2.2%	ME	(3.8)	(3.5)	(4.0)	0.006	ME	741	30	NH	95	NH	14.0	95	3.2%	8324	1.0%		57.9	40.3
36																																													24.0	TX	42	37	37	38	7.6	B										NV	82	NV	9.9	82	2.7%	8406	0.9%
37	MD	54.8	43.8	11.1	-1.9	10	3.99	59.6	39.3	20.3	7.3	10	59.4	39.7	19.7	6.7	10	56.6	42.5	14.1	1.1	10	55.9	42.9	13.0	10	MD		63.6	34.5	29.1	10	-18.1	1	0.43%	1.95%	60.25	39.75	0.43%	10	-3.56%	Maryland	10	60.3	25.0	MD	60	59	57	56	7.3	K	3.07%	MD	(8.1)	(8.8)	(7.3)	0.020	MD	2,387	174	NE	68	NE	8.7	68	2.3%	8474	0.7%		63.6	35.3
38	MA	64.7	33.1	31.6	6.5	12	4.03	65.8	32.9	32.8	7.7	12	66.3	33.6	32.7	7.5	12	65.7	34.2	31.5	6.3	12	61.9	36.8	25.2	12	MA		69.5	30.5	39.1	12	-7.5	1	2.58%	2.38%	66.63	33.37	2.58%	12	-1.45%	Massachusetts	12	66.6	26.0	WY	33	35	32	29	7.0	B	3.1%	MA	(5.8)	(6.6)	(7.7)	0.024	MA	2,912	224	NM	61	NM	8.0	61	2.0%	8534	0.7%		69.5	29.2
39	MI	53.9	44.7	9.1	5.7	17	2.57	54.4	44.6	9.8	6.4	17	51.8	47.3	4.5	1.1	17	51.9	47.1	4.8	1.4	17	51.2	47.8	3.4	17	MI		57.2	42.0	15.2	17	-6.1	1	0.71%	3.96%	54.94	45.06	0.71%	17	-1.86%	Michigan	17	54.9	27.0	MI	54	52	52	51	6.4	K	1.98%	MI	(6.3)	(6.6)	(6.4)	0.040	MI	4,839	310	DE	60	DE	15.9	60	2.0%	8594	0.7%		57.2	41.9
40	MN	56.3	42.4	13.9	10.4	10	2.72	55.7	43.0	12.7	9.2	10	56.7	42.4	14.3	10.8	10	53.7	44.9	8.8	5.3	10	51.1	47.6	3.5	10	MN		56.4	44.0	12.4	10	1.5		2.71%	2.31%	56.43	43.57	2.71%	10	0.00%	Minnesota	10	56.4	28.0	CO	50	47	48	47	6.1	B	2.09%	MN	(9.3)	(10.8)	(9.2)	0.023	MN	2,828	260	IN	54	IN	2.2	54	1.8%	8648	0.6%		56.4	42.3
41	MS	45.6	53.7	-8.1	10.7		4.43	49.1	49.8	-0.7	18.5		46.2	53.2	-7.0	11.9		43.4	56.0	-12.6	6.3		39.8	59.0	-18.9		MS		48.6	54.1	-5.5		-2.6		3.01%	0.93%	49.64	50.36	3.01%	6	-1.42%	Mississippi	6	49.6	29.0	MO	49	48	48	46	5.8	B	3.41%	MS	(11.3)	(15.6)	(18.5)	0.009	MS	1,152	213	LA	51	LA	2.6	51	1.7%	8699	0.6%		48.6	50.6
42																																													30.0	RI	62	62	63	59	5.3	K										VT	47	VT	15.2	47	1.6%	8746	0.5%
43	MO	50.4	48.7	1.7	8.9	11	2.74	49.0	50.4	-1.4	5.8		47.8	52.2	-4.4	2.8		47.8	52.1	-4.3	2.9		46.1	53.3	-7.2		MO	11	51.2	47.6	3.6	11	-1.9		1.20%	2.24%	49.30	50.70	1.20%	11	-1.55%	Missouri	11	49.3	31.0	WI	52	53	50	50	4.8	K	2.11%	MO	(5.8)	(5.2)	(5.8)	0.022	MO	2,731	158	IA	45	IA	3.0	45	1.5%	8791	0.5%		50.9	48.5
44	MT	39.3	56.7	-17.4	3.1		4.10	37.3	60.4	-23.1	-2.6		37.8	59.9	-22.1	-1.6		37.2	60.0	-22.8	-2.3		38.6	59.1	-20.5		MT		38.2	59.8	-21.6		4.2		-0.93%	0.37%	38.19	61.81	0.93%	3	-3.16%	Montana	3	38.2	32.0	UT	28	30	30	26	4.3	B	3.15%	MT	1.8	(5.7)	2.6	0.004	MT	450	(12)	GA	43	GA	1.3	43	1.4%	8834	0.5%		34.0	63.6
45	NE	36.4	62.4	-26.0	7.2		2.77	37.1	61.5	-24.5	8.7		37.5	61.7	-24.2	9.0		36.1	62.6	-26.5	6.7		32.7	65.9	-33.2		NE		34.4	64.2	-29.7		3.7		3.30%	0.64%	37.58	62.42	3.30%	5	0.53%	Nebraska	5	37.6	33.0	ID	32	31	32	30	4.0	B	2.13%	NE	(8.1)	(8.0)	(8.7)	0.006	NE	778	68	UT	40	UT	4.3	40	1.3%	8874	0.4%		34.2	64.4
46	NV	52.4	46.5	6.0	8.6	5	4.72	52.9	45.5	7.3	9.9	5	49.3	47.9	1.4	4.0	5	48.9	48.3	0.6	3.2	5	47.9	50.5	-2.6		NV	5	54.8	43.7	11.1	5	-5.1		2.17%	0.68%	53.73	46.27	2.17%	5	-2.55%	Nevada	5	53.7	34.0	ME	56	54	54	54	4.0	K	3.63%	NV	(10.1)	(15.6)	(9.9)	0.007	NV	830	82	HI	35	HI	8.2	35	1.2%	8909	0.4%		57.0	41.3
47	NH	56.7	42.0	14.8	13.4	4	2.95	57.2	41.9	15.3	14.0	4	57.1	42.1	15.0	13.6	4	55.1	43.9	11.2	9.8	4	50.2	48.9	1.4	4	NH		55.5	42.9	12.7	4	2.1		4.98%	0.55%	57.73	42.27	4.98%	4	2.03%	New Hampshire	4	57.7	35.0	IL	57	58	57	55	3.5	K	2.27%	NH	(13.6)	(15.6)	(14.0)	0.006	NH	678	95	OR	33	OR	1.8	33	1.1%	8942	0.4%		56.3	42.8
48																																													36.0	IA	51	50	50	49	3.0	B										TN	32	TN	1.3	32	1.1%	8974	0.4%
49	NJ	59.1	38.6	20.6	13.9	15	3.24	57.5	41.7	15.8	9.1	15	58.4	40.2	18.2	11.5	15	55.3	42.8	12.5	5.8	15	52.9	46.2	6.7	15	NJ		63.3	35.1	28.1	15	-7.5	1	3.44%	2.95%	57.96	42.04	3.44%	15	0.20%	New Jersey	15	58.0	37.0	DC	91	91	90	89	2.8	K	2.49%	NJ	(9.7)	(10.2)	(9.1)	0.030	NJ	3,612	329	ME	30	ME	4.0	30	1.0%	9004	0.3%		61.3	37.8
50	NM	53.9	44.3	9.6	10.4	5	2.89	53.0	45.8	7.2	8.0	5	51.7	47.5	4.2	5.0	5	50.8	48.0	2.8	3.6	5	49.0	49.8	-0.8		NM	5	55.6	42.6	13.0	5	-3.4		1.84%	0.62%	53.64	46.36	1.84%	5	-1.05%	New Mexico	5	53.6	38.0	LA	44	43	44	42	2.6	B	2.22%	NM	(7.8)	(8.4)	(8.0)	0.006	NM	756	61	AK	29	AK	9.3	29	1.0%	9033	0.3%		54.7	44.2
51	NY	62.1	36.2	25.9	7.6	31	3.21	64.5	34.0	30.5	12.2	31	65.1	33.8	31.3	13.0	31	63.1	35.5	27.6	9.3	31	58.4	40.1	18.3	31	NY		65.9	32.1	33.8	31	-7.9	1	4.58%	6.05%	65.48	34.52	4.58%	31	1.37%	New York	31	65.5	39.0	IN	40	41	41	39	2.2	B	2.47%	NY	(11.4)	(11.9)	(12.2)	0.060	NY	7,391	902	ID	24	ID	4.0	24	0.8%	9057	0.3%		67.1	31.3
52	NC	46.1	53.0	-6.9	5.6		2.73	49.5	50.1	-0.5	11.9		48.2	51.8	-3.6	8.8		48.1	51.9	-3.8	8.6		43.6	56.0	-12.4		NC		51.0	47.9	3.1	15	-9.9	1	4.12%	2.87%	49.73	50.27	4.12%	15	1.39%	North Carolina	15	49.7	40.0	OR	53	53	50	51	1.8	K	2.1%	NC	(11.3)	(12.0)	(11.9)	0.029	NC	3,501	417	RI	23	RI	5.3	23	0.8%	9080	0.3%		52.4	47.2
53	ND	31.4	66.8	-35.4	-8.0		4.72	34.6	63.7	-29.1	-1.7		32.3	66.7	-34.4	-7.0		33.3	64.9	-31.6	-4.2		35.5	62.9	-27.4		ND		34.5	64.1	-29.6		-5.8		-2.04%	0.26%	35.23	64.77	2.04%	3	-2.68%	North Dakota	3	35.2	41.0	AR	45	47	47	45	1.3	B	3.63%	ND	5.2	5.1	1.7	0.003	ND	313	(5)	WY	17	WY	7.0	17	0.6%	9097	0.2%		31.3	67.0
54																																													42.0	GA	42	44	43	41	1.3	B										AR	14	AR	1.3	14	0.5%	9111	0.2%
55	OH	54.1	45.7	8.3	10.4	20	2.87	54.0	45.5	8.5	10.6	20	53.2	46.7	6.5	8.6	20	51.7	48.3	3.4	5.5	20	48.7	50.8	-2.1		OH	20	53.7	44.9	8.7	20	-0.4		2.51%	4.60%	54.27	45.73	2.51%	20	-0.36%	Ohio	20	54.3	43.0	TN	43	40	41	43	1.3	B	2.21%	OH	(10.9)	(11.2)	(10.6)	0.046	OH	5,628	597	KS	13	KS	1.1	13	0.4%	9124	0.1%		53.8	45.7
56	OK	36.3	62.6	-26.4	4.8		3.09	33.8	66.2	-32.3	-1.2		34.1	65.8	-31.7	-0.6		34.6	65.4	-30.8	0.3		34.4	65.6	-31.1		OK		33.8	65.3	-31.5		5.2		0.17%	1.20%	33.83	66.17	0.17%	7	-2.92%	Oklahoma	7	33.8	44.0	KS	37	37	34	37	1.1	B	2.38%	OK	1.9	1.4	1.2	0.012	OK	1,464	(18)	KY	7	KY	0.4	7	0.2%	9131	0.1%		32.0	68.0
57	OR	52.2	46.3	5.9	1.7	7	3.90	52.2	46.3	6.0	1.8	7	53.0	47.0	6.0	1.8	7	50.3	47.9	2.4	-1.8	7	51.3	47.2	4.2	7	OR		52.9	45.6	7.3	7	-1.4		-0.71%	1.50%	53.02	46.98	0.71%	7	-3.19%	Oregon	7	53.0	45.0	KY	40	41	41	40	0.4	B	3%	OR	(1.8)	(1.8)	(1.8)	0.015	OR	1,837	33	DC	6	DC	2.8	6	0.2%	9137	0.1%		55.4	43.1
58	PA	56.6	42.9	13.7	11.2	21	2.89	55.1	44.2	10.9	8.4	21	56.9	43.1	13.8	11.3	21	54.2	45.7	8.5	6.0	21	50.9	48.4	2.5	21	PA		56.7	41.9	14.8	21	-1.1		2.72%	4.72%	55.49	44.51	2.72%	21	-0.16%	Pennsylvania	21	55.5	46.0	AZ	45	47	47	44	0.3	B	2.22%	PA	(8.8)	(11.0)	(8.4)	0.047	PA	5,770	485	AZ	6	AZ	0.3	6	0.2%	9143	0.1%		56.9	42.4
59	RI	63.3	34.5	28.8	8.0	4	4.29	62.1	36.0	26.1	5.3	4	62.4	36.3	26.1	5.3	4	63.2	34.9	28.3	7.5	4	59.4	38.7	20.8	4	RI		67.0	30.3	36.7	4	-7.9	1	3.77%	0.36%	63.28	36.72	3.77%	4	-0.52%	Rhode Island	4	63.3	47.0	OK	34	34	35	34	-1.2	B	3.3%	RI	(4.7)	(5.3)	(5.3)	0.004	RI	437	23	ND	(5)	ND	(1.7)	(5)	-0.2%	9138	-0.1%		67.8	30.3
60																																													48.0	ND	35	32	33	35	-1.7	B										MT	(12)	MT	(2.6)	(12)	-0.4%	9126	-0.1%
61	SC	47.8	50.6	-2.9	14.2		3.04	45.8	53.1	-7.4	9.7		46.4	52.4	-6.0	11.1		45.1	53.8	-8.7	8.4		40.9	58.0	-17.1		SC		47.2	51.6	-4.4		1.5		4.18%	1.32%	46.27	53.73	4.18%	8	1.14%	South Carolina	8	46.3	49.0	MT	37	38	37	39	-2.6	B	2.34%	SC	(10.0)	(9.3)	(9.7)	0.013	SC	1,618	157	OK	(18)	OK	(1.2)	(18)	-0.6%	9109	-0.2%		46.8	52.1
62	SD	35.1	62.6	-27.5	-6.1		3.19	35.9	62.5	-26.6	-5.1		34.9	63.2	-28.3	-6.8		36.8	61.5	-24.7	-3.2		38.4	59.9	-21.5		SD		36.4	62.6	-26.2		-1.3		-1.59%	0.32%	36.49	63.51	1.59%	3	-1.60%	South Dakota	3	36.5	50.0	SD	36	35	37	38	-5.1	B	2.45%	SD	4.2	4.0	5.1	0.003	SD	388	(20)	SD	(20)	SD	(5.1)	(20)	-0.7%	9089	-0.2%		34.4	64.0
63	TN	41.6	56.4	-14.8	-0.5		2.98	43.2	56.1	-13.0	1.3		40.3	58.5	-18.2	-3.9		41.3	57.6	-16.3	-2.0		42.5	56.8	-14.3		TN		51.6	47.4	4.2	11	-19.0	1	-0.80%	1.99%	43.47	56.53	0.80%	11	-2.18%	Tennessee	11	43.5	51.0	WV	40	42	45	43	-5.9	B	2.29%	TN	(0.5)	0.0	(1.3)	0.020	TN	2,437	32	WV	(45)	WV	(5.9)	(45)	-1.5%	9044	-0.5%		44.5	54.8
64	TX	41.5	57.5	-16.0	6.9		3.00	42.0	57.3	-15.3	7.6		36.5	63.5	-27.0	-4.1		37.1	62.9	-25.8	-2.9		38.2	61.1	-22.9		TX		49.2	49.2	-0.1		-15.9	1	-1.81%	6.07%	42.32	57.68	1.81%	34	-1.19%	Texas	34	42.3									2.31%	TX	(4.8)	(3.0)	(7.6)	0.061	TX	7,411	563										40.1	59.2
65	UT	31.5	66.3	-34.8	10.7		4.13	28.1	69.4	-41.2	4.3		29.9	69.2	-39.3	6.2		29.9	68.3	-38.4	7.1		26.0	71.5	-45.5		UT		28.8	69.6	-40.9		6.0		3.24%	0.76%	28.86	71.14	3.24%	5	-0.90%	Utah	5	28.9									3.18%	UT	(6.4)	(1.9)	(4.3)	0.008	UT	928	40										25.6	72.0
66
67	VT	68.8	27.8	41.0	20.8	3	4.63	66.5	31.2	35.3	15.2	3	67.0	30.4	36.6	16.5	3	64.5	32.8	31.7	11.6	3	58.9	38.8	20.1	3	VT		61.7	36.3	25.4	3	15.6	1	6.00%	0.25%	68.08	31.92	6.00%	3	1.37%	Vermont	3	68.1									3.56%	VT	(15.0)	(17.1)	(15.2)	0.003	VT	312	47										60.5	37.2
68	VA	52.7	46.8	5.9	14.1	13	3.37	49.8	49.3	0.5	8.7	13	50.2	49.7	0.5	8.7	13	48.0	51.9	-3.9	4.3		45.5	53.7	-8.2		VA	13	52.8	45.9	6.9	13	-1.0		1.78%	2.61%	50.25	49.75	1.78%	13	-1.58%	Virginia	13	50.3									2.59%	VA	(7.9)	(7.0)	(8.7)	0.026	VA	3,198	278										51.1	48.1
69	WA	56.5	41.9	14.6	7.4	11	2.76	56.8	41.6	15.2	8.0	11	54.9	44.2	10.7	3.5	11	54.1	44.6	9.5	2.3	11	52.8	45.6	7.2	11	WA		59.4	38.7	20.7	11	-6.1	1	1.04%	2.34%	57.71	42.29	1.04%	11	-1.72%	Washington	11	57.7									2.12%	WA	(8.4)	(8.7)	(8.0)	0.023	WA	2,859	229										58.8	39.7
70	WV	41.7	56.9	-15.2	-2.3		3.06	40.2	59.0	-18.8	-5.9		41.6	57.4	-15.8	-2.9		44.9	54.2	-9.3	3.6		43.2	56.1	-12.9		WV		44.5	54.3	-9.8		-5.4		1.86%	0.62%	40.55	59.45	1.86%	5	-1.19%	West Virginia	5	40.5									2.35%	WV	5.8	4.7	5.9	0.006	WV	756	(45)										41.3	58.0
71	WI	52.0	46.8	5.2	4.8	10	2.70	52.1	46.9	5.2	4.8	10	52.5	46.8	5.7	5.3	10	49.6	49.2	0.4	0.0	10	49.7	49.3	0.4	10	WI		53.2	45.2	8.0	10	-2.9		0.12%	2.45%	52.62	47.38	0.12%	10	-2.58%	Wisconsin	10	52.6									2.08%	WI	(4.7)	(5.7)	(4.8)	0.024	WI	2,997	144										53.6	45.4
72	WY	28.9	68.2	-39.3	0.5		4.55	32.6	65.4	-32.8	7.0		34.5	63.6	-29.1	10.7		31.6	66.4	-34.8	5.0		29.1	68.9	-39.8		WY		31.7	67.0	-35.3		-4.0		2.46%	0.20%	33.26	66.74	2.46%	3	-2.09%	Wyoming	3	33.3									3.5%	WY	(4.3)	(8.2)	(7.0)	0.002	WY	243	17										27.4	70.5
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335		Kerry
336		Rec
337		26.0								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Alabama	AL	36.8
338		29.1								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Alaska	AK	35.5
339		30.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Arizona	AZ	44.4
340		32.7								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Arkansas	AR	44.5
341		34.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		California	CA	54.3
342		35.5								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Colorado	CO	47.0
343		35.5								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Connecticut	CT	54.3
344		36.6								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Delaware	DE	53.3
345		36.8								#REF!	0.00	0.00		D. C.	DC	89.2
346		38.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Florida	FL	47.1
347		38.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Georgia	GA	41.4
348		38.6								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Hawaii	HI	54.0
349		39.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Idaho	ID	30.3
350		39.7								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Illinois	IL	54.8
351		40.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Indiana	IN	39.3
352		40.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Iowa	IA	49.2
353		41.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Kansas	KS	36.6
354		42.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Kentucky	KY	39.7
355		42.5								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Louisiana	LA	42.2
356		43.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Maine	ME	53.6
357		43.6								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Maryland	MD	55.9
358		44.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Massachusetts	MA	61.9
359		44.5								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Michigan	MI	51.2
360		45.5								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Minnesota	MN	51.1
361		46.1								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Mississippi	MS	40.2
362		47.0								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Missouri	MO	46.1
363		47.1								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Montana	MT	38.6
364		47.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Nebraska	NE	32.7
365		48.7								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Nevada	NV	47.9
366		49.0								#REF!	0.00	0.00		New Hampshire	NH	50.2
367		49.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		New Jersey	NJ	52.9
368		49.7								#REF!	0.00	0.00		New Mexico	NM	49.0
369		50.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		New York	NY	58.4
370		50.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		North Carolina	NC	43.6
371		51.1								#REF!	0.00	0.00		North Dakota	ND	35.5
372		51.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Ohio	OH	48.7
373		51.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Oklahoma	OK	34.4
374		52.8								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Oregon	OR	51.3
375		52.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Pennsylvania	PA	50.9
376		53.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Rhode Island	RI	59.4
377		53.6								#REF!	0.00	0.00		South Carolina	SC	40.9
378		54.0								#REF!	0.00	0.00		South Dakota	SD	38.4
379		54.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Tennessee	TN	42.5
380		54.3								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Texas	TX	38.2
381		54.8								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Utah	UT	26.0
382		55.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Vermont	VT	58.9
383		58.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Virginia	VA	45.5
384		58.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Washington	WA	52.8
385		59.4								#REF!	0.00	0.00		West Virginia	WV	43.2
386		61.9								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Wisconsin	WI	49.7
387		89.2								#REF!	0.00	0.00		Wyoming	WY	29.1