Black swan beauty contest

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Which of the events described above do you consider the most probable? Choose your top 3.

Then guess which event the others will consider the most likely!

If you have any other similar black swan events on the top of your mind, here you can share it with us. We hope to post a few of these later in the blog.

I think the most probable event is:

I think the 2nd most probable event is:

I think the 3rd most probable event is:

THE OTHER VOTERS' most probable event will be:

Please briefly discuss any other potential 'black swan' events on the top of your mind.

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