ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUV
1
VOTES%SD%POSSIBLE SEATS
2
3
CON40359
4
5
6
LAB3316249
7
8
9
LIB DEM141114
10
11
12
UKIP770
13
14
15
OTHERS6.0028assumes 10 Nats and 18 NIs
16
17
18
19
TO RE-RERUN
20
PRESS DELETE
21
IN BLACK CELL
22
23
24
25
ILLUSTRATION OF THE UK WESTMINSTER ELECTORAL SYSTEM: HOW EVENLY SPREAD the votes are matters as much as HOW MANY VOTES there are...                                                            change the votes and change the standard deviations. Small parties with low SDs don't win seats under FPTP, even moderately large parties with low SDs don't win many! See what happens to UKIP if its SD rises to around 10%. SDs are likely to be in the range 12%-16% for Labour, 11%-14% for the Tories, 7%-11% for LDs and 3%-10% for UKIP. THIS MODEL IS ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY, USING RANDOM DATA. IT TAKES NO ACCOUNT OF ELECTORAL BIAS, TACTICAL VOTING, TARGETTING OR ANY CORRELATION OF ONE PARTY'S CONSTITUENCY PERFORMANCE WITH OTHER PARTIES' PERFORMANCE.    IT IS NOT INTENDED TO BE A FORECAST, BUT THE RESULTS ARE PLAUSIBLE.
26
27
28
29
30
31
NB: the Conservative and Other SDs are calculated internally, you do not have to enter them.
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100