ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST
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All units in TwhDomesticIndustry (inc refinaries)Power (lowest gas scenario - CCC)Total% reductionReasonable range (taking into account power sector and industrial variability) Assumed level of gas demand compared to 2011National grid projections
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2011353125307785
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203025210081.969433.96944.72%35-45%60%60
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205002081.969101.96976.50%60-76%30%
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(CCC range 20-96 depending on barriers)(CCC 82 twh for power sector lowest end of range)
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Data and assumptions
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Data in yellow, Source CCC (email) based on http://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/international-aviation-shipping-review/
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Data in green, Source DUKES (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/65800/DUKES_2013_Chapter_4.pdf) table 4.2
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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/65818/DUKES_2013_Chapter_5.pdf
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Data in blue - our calculation
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Data in Orange UKCS oil and gas projections https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/249323/production_projections.pdf
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Data in Pink = National grid Biogas report 2009, using EY calculations
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Data in red = Reuters http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/uk-energy-gas-britain-imports-idUKBRE88I0J620120919
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Data in dark blue sourced to the National Grid http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyres/86C815F5-0EAD-46B5-A580-A0A516562B3E/50819/10312_1_NG_Futureenergyscenarios_WEB1.pdf (figure 26)
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Change in use of gas for power generation 2011-2030Gas power generation% changeAssumed change in gas use (assuming linear relationship)
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2011139307
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20303971.94%81.969
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Apply reductions to total gas demandGas demandUK gas supplyNet UK importsBiogas potentialNorway estimate
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2011909401
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2030545.4197.7347.762-198330
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2050272.70272.762-198Continued - volume unknown
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Notes:
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80% emissions reduction for non aviation sectors compared to 2010/11 based on CCC analysis for international aviation and shipping review
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Linear relationship assumed on the basis of the roll out of new CCGT plant suitable for load balancing and because gas plants do not currently run at optimun efficiency
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Gas use in industry could be higher with deployment of CCS
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Calculation in B23 is UK Net gas demand multiplied by National Grid projection reflected in National grid report (figure 26)
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Calculation in B24 is UK Net gas demand by Greenpeace/CCC projection - number is indicative
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