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data from David Leip's Atlas of US Presidential Election ResultsForecasts from 538, June 2012Yahoo The Signal forecast, Feb 2012
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Atlas link538 linkThe Signal link
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StateO EVR EVCum O EVCum R EVstate statusTotal VoteMargin%MarginObama %ageObama%age estState
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Alabama09#VALUE!#VALUE!certain R2,064,699458,83322.22% 38.44%37.36Alabama
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Alaska03#VALUE!#VALUE!certain R222,72129,53813.26% 41.17%38.97Alaska
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Arizona011#VALUE!#VALUE!lean R - RCP1,912,395195,04310.2% 43.92%42.93Arizona
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Arkansas06#VALUE!#VALUE!certain R1,061,613251,52323.69% 36.88%40.41Arkansas
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California550#VALUE!#VALUE!certain O10,172,1162,104,38220.69% 59.16%57.83California
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Colorado90#VALUE!#VALUE!tossup2,445,012117,2764.8% 51.23%51.65Colorado
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Connecticut70#VALUE!#VALUE!certain O1,546,734267,45917.29% 58.05%56.55Connecticut
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D. C.3030certain O243,995204,99584.02% 91.12%100D. C.
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Delaware3060certain O413,84477,07118.62% 58.61%60.5Delaware
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Florida290350tossup8,471,08873,8580.87% 50.01%48.39Florida
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Georgia0163516certain R - RCP3,894,340305,9507.86% 45.49%47.13Georgia
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Hawaii403916certain O434,539185,57042.71% 70.54%65.05Hawaii
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Idaho043920certain R651,661207,69131.87% 32.64%35.06Idaho
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Illinois2005920certain O5,153,629860,50416.7% 57.52%57.96Illinois
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Indiana0115931certain/lean R2,600,163275,37610.59% 43.74%47.38Indiana
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Iowa606531tossup1,555,57086,8235.58% 51.89%51.7Iowa
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Kansas066537certain R1,126,507250,80122.26% 37.99%40.3Kansas
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Kentucky086545certain R1,796,764407,78022.7% 37.81%39.46Kentucky
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Louisiana086553certain R1,993,199343,68117.24% 40.56%40.45Louisiana
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Maine406953certain/lean O710,738107,31715.1% 55.96%52.91Maine
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Maryland1007953certain O2,524,695623,67524.7% 61.29%58.44Maryland
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Massachusetts1109053certain O3,128,134723,20523.12% 60.76%55.82Massachusetts
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Michigan16010653lean O - RCP4,714,239448,8759.52% 54.30%55.52Michigan
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Minnesota10011653certain/lean O2,936,228225,9727.7% 52.65%53.32Minnesota
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Mississippi0611659certain R1,213,035146,04212.04% 43.55%40.5Mississippi
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Missouri01011669lean R - RCP2,744,935263,9309.62% 44.26%47.9Missouri
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Montana0311672certain R - RCP478,98166,98713.99% 41.55%46.9Montana
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Nebraska0511677certain R772,551174,88622.64% 37.83%40.79Nebraska
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Nevada6012277tossup - Pollster1,011,50766,3986.56% 52.30%52.1Nevada
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New Hampshire4012677tossup - Pollster710,92839,5875.57% 51.97%50.82New Hampshire
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New Jersey14014077certain O - RCP3,304,265558,47916.9% 57.95%54.09New Jersey
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New Mexico5014577certain/lean O - CBS772,92376,0499.84% 52.84%53.96New Mexico
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New York29017477certain O6,188,9821,649,18926.65% 62.62%58.51New York
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North Carolina01517492tossup/lean R4,464,22096,5682.16% 48.29%46.91North Carolina
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North Dakota0317495certain R321,89063,15319.62% 38.70%45North Dakota
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Ohio18019295tossup5,350,140107,2592% 50.29%50.32Ohio
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Oklahoma07192102certain R1,334,872447,77833.54% 33.23%33.92Oklahoma
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Oregon70199102certain O - RCP1,682,175193,17711.48% 54.13%54.66Oregon
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Pennsylvania200219102tossup/lean O5,551,310292,0475.26% 52.01%51.91Pennsylvania
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Rhode Island40223102certain O444,720121,87927.41% 62.68%59.01Rhode Island
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South Carolina09223111certain R - RCP1,949,969208,39910.69% 43.98%42.28South Carolina
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South Dakota03223114certain R363,72365,56318.03% 39.86%44.19South Dakota
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Tennessee011223125certain R2,454,470500,91120.41% 39.07%40.38Tennessee
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Texas038223163certain R7,964,1781,261,35915.84% 41.37%40.95Texas
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Utah06223169certain R923,301442,28447.9% 24.85%34.12Utah
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Vermont30226169certain O298,513106,55935.7% 66.75%62.12Vermont
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Virginia130239169tossup - Pollster3,739,576113,8863.05% 50.73%50.22Virginia
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Washington120251169certain O2,801,423392,73714.02% 55.81%55.08Washington
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West Virginia05251174certain R658,719176,92226.86% 35.49%42.8West Virginia
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Wisconsin100261174tossup - Pollster3,056,802205,2056.71% 52.80%54.15Wisconsin
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Wyoming03261177certain R246,745100,89140.89% 27.80%33.08Wyoming
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Total122,579,47616,771,322
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obama total69675399
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0.5684099922
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