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Rough Estimation
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Assumptions:Conclusion after observing data below(From Row 18~ End): .xls file download link:http://www.brishtiteveja.com/Downloads/Timevsdifficulty.xlsxBitcointalk threadhttp://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232670.0
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1.Fixed % Difficulty rise(Exponential Growth)If Kncminer just did the same as BFL e.g. made their customers wait until December or even January,Comment: If find some mistake, let me know in bitcointalk.org thread http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232670.0 and you also may wanna extend data, chart etc over the .xls file. If you do so, please update me on the thread... Thank you
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2.1BTC = 120 USD till 2014In the mean time if Difficulty on average every 11 day increases less than 20% ,
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then with the current BTC/USD convertion rate, you will make profit....
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But if difficulty level increase on average more than 20%, then you are doomed, with current conversion rate you won't actually be able to take out the money you have invested on your miner.... :(
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The only thing that can save your ass is the hope that because of Bitcoin's decreasing supply the value of Bitcoin will increase... skyrocket...Then you are going to be the king... So will you take the risk?
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And if Kncminer cheats you, Nothing can save you...But it seems after reading several thread kncminer/OrSoc are quite legit.
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BTC/USD history link:http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD
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Notice:KNC miner hasn't been delivered in february.It is going to be delivered from september. In the first table I have done the calculation for kncminer just to have an idea, how much profitable it would have been if I had those miners from that early in this year... :)
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Bitcoin Time vs. DifficultyN = (h * t)/(2^32 * D)
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1 Tera Hash/sec = 10^12 Hash/secNumber of Blocks per dayNumber of Blocks per day
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DateIncrease(%)Difficulty Level(D)Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600 KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s) KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)
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2/5/201310.33365101226,134,961,895,506 1.9284512520.964225626
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2/18/201311.47436787631,266,474,288,306 1.6119502170.805975108
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3/1/201319.63484764734,700,808,879,254 1.4524157110.726207855
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3/14/201310.98669582647,930,589,482,844 1.0515205540.525760277
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3/24/201338.13767300054,925,473,437,013 0.917607020.45880351
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4/5/201314.59897429664,240,513,041,039 0.7845516420.392275821
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4/17/201312.281007629372,128,914,833,190 0.6987489010.349374451
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4/30/201312.281118725780,081,504,911,579 0.6293588020.314679401
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5/12/201311.031118725780,081,504,911,579 0.6293588020.314679401
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5/25/20138.641215341286,997,511,791,357 0.5793269140.289663457
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6/5/201328.4115605633111,709,472,280,631 0.4511703350.225585167
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16.16090909
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 Payout=(Sum of Bitcoins per day in a range)*11day*25BTC* 120USD354237.1849177118.5925
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 USD USD
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Future Prediction with average 15% difficulty increase per 11 dayNumber of Blocks per dayNumber of Blocks per day
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DateChangeDifficulty(D)Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600 KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s) KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)
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6/5/201328.41%15605633111,709,472,280,631 0.4511703350.225585167Year 2013
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6/16/201315%17946478128,465,893,480,639 0.3923220290.196161015
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6/27/201315%20638450147,735,777,502,735 0.3411495910.170574795
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7/8/201315%23734217169,896,144,128,145 0.2966518180.148325909
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7/19/201315%27294350195,380,565,747,367 0.2579581020.128979051
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7/30/201315%31388502224,687,650,609,472 0.2243113930.112155697
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8/10/201315%36096778258,390,798,200,893 0.1950533860.097526693
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8/21/201315%41511294297,149,417,931,027 0.169611640.08480582
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9/1/201315%47737988341,721,830,620,681 0.1474883820.073744191
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9/12/201315%54898687392,980,105,213,783 0.1282507670.064125384
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9/23/201315%63133489451,927,120,995,850 0.1115224060.055761203
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10/4/201315%72603513519,716,189,145,228 0.0969760050.048488003
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10/15/201315%83494040597,673,617,517,012 0.0843269610.042163481
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10/26/201315%96018146687,324,660,144,564 0.0733277920.036663896
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11/6/201315%110420868790,423,359,166,249 0.0637632980.031881649
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11/17/201315%126983998908,986,863,041,186 0.0554463460.027723173
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11/28/201315%1460315981,045,334,892,497,360 0.0482142140.024107107
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12/9/201315%1679363371,202,135,126,371,970 0.0419254030.020962702
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12/20/201315%1931267881,382,455,395,327,760 0.0364568720.018228436
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12/31/201315%2220958061,589,823,704,626,930 0.0317016280.015850814Year 2013 ends
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1/11/201415%2554101771,828,297,260,320,970 0.0275666330.013783317Year 2014 starts
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1/22/201415%2937217032,102,541,849,369,110 0.0239709850.011985493
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2/2/201415%3377799592,417,923,126,774,480 0.0208443350.010422168
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2/13/201415%3884469532,780,611,595,790,650 0.0181255090.009062754
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2/24/201415%4467139953,197,703,335,159,250 0.0157613120.007880656
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3/7/201415%5137210953,677,358,835,433,140 0.0137054890.006852744
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3/18/201415%5907792594,228,962,660,748,110 0.0119178160.005958908
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3/29/201415%6793961484,863,307,059,860,320 0.0103633180.005181659
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4/9/201415%7813055705,592,803,118,839,370 0.0090115810.004505791
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4/20/201415%8985014056,431,723,586,665,280 0.0078361580.003918079
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5/1/201415%10332766167,396,482,124,665,070 0.006814050.003407025
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5/12/201415%11882681098,505,954,443,364,830 0.0059252610.00296263
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5/23/201415%13665083259,781,847,609,869,560 0.0051524010.0025762
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6/3/201415%157148457411,249,124,751,350,000 0.0044803490.002240174
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6/14/201415%180720726012,936,493,464,052,500 0.0038959550.001947978
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6/25/201415%207828834914,876,967,483,660,400 0.0033877870.001693894
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7/6/201415%239003160117,108,512,606,209,400 0.0029459020.001472951
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7/17/201415%274853634119,674,789,497,140,800 0.0025616540.001280827
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7/28/201415%316081679322,626,007,921,711,900 0.0022275250.001113763
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8/8/201415%363493931226,019,909,109,968,700 0.0019369780.000968489
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8/19/201415%418018020829,922,895,476,464,000 0.0016843290.000842164
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8/30/201415%480720724034,411,329,797,933,700 0.0014646340.000732317
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9/10/201415%552828832539,573,029,267,623,700 0.0012735950.000636797
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9/21/201415%635753157445,508,983,657,767,300 0.0011074740.000553737
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10/2/201415%731116131052,335,331,206,432,400 0.0009630210.00048151
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10/13/201415%840783550760,185,630,887,397,200 0.0008374090.000418705
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10/24/201415%966901083369,213,475,520,506,800 0.0007281820.000364091
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11/4/201415%1111936245879,595,496,848,582,800 0.0006332020.000316601
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11/15/201415%1278726682791,534,821,375,870,200 0.000550610.000275305
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11/26/201415%14705356851105,265,044,582,251,000 0.0004787910.000239396
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12/7/201415%16911160378121,054,801,269,588,000 0.000416340.00020817
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12/18/201415%19447834435139,213,021,460,027,000 0.0003620350.000181018
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12/29/201415%22365009600160,094,974,679,031,000 0.0003148130.000157407Year 2014 ends
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 Payout13464.361663526.78365
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Future Prediction with average 10% difficulty increase
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Number of Blocks per dayNumber of Blocks per day
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DateChangeDifficulty(D)Network Hash Rate= D * 2^32/600 KNCMiner Jupiter(350GH/s) KNCMiner Saturn(175GH/s)
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6/5/201328.41%15605633111,709,472,280,631 0.4511703350.225585167Year 2013 starts
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6/16/201310%17166196122,880,419,508,694 0.410154850.205077425
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6/27/201310%18882816135,168,461,459,563 0.3728680450.186434023
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7/8/201310%20771098148,685,307,605,519 0.338970950.169485475