1988-2020 Presidential Unadjusted Exit Polls / Recorded Vote/ True Vote

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	O
1	Timestamp	Who did you vote for in 2000?	Sample Question 2
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4		1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential Exit Polls: a 52-41% Democratic margin vs. 48-46% recorded
5	8/23/2016 5:00:39		1
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7		Richard Charnin
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10		This workbook contains unadjusted state exit polls for the 1988-2016 Presidential Elections.
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12		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-116
13		E-116= 0.000000.....0001 (115 zeros)
14		Data Source: Roper Center UConn
15		http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/state_exitpolls.html#.Tr60gD3NltP
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17		Unadjusted exit polls are based on actual respondent totals.
18		Final Exit Polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
19		The unadjusted exit polls are confirmed in other surveys and independent models..
20		https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/electionintegrity
21		http://www.electionmathematics.org/em-exitpolls/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
22		True Vote Models
23		The TVM is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares.
24		The TVM closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in each election from 1988-2008.
25		http://richardcharnin.com/TrueVoteModels.htm			http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005178.php
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27		Data Summary
28		The Democrats led all 1988-2008 presidential election true vote models and unadjusted exit polls
29		- Recorded vote: 48.1 - 46.0%
30		- Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate: 52.1- 41.4%
31		- Unadjusted national exit poll: 51.9 - 41.7%
32		- True Vote Model 1: 50.2 - 43.2% (previous recorded vote)
33		- True Vote Model 2: 51.6 - 41.8% (previous votes cast)
34		- True Vote Model 3: 52.5 - 40.9% (previous exit poll)
35		- True Vote Model 4: 53.0 - 40.4% (recursive)
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38		States flipping from the Democrats in the exit poll to the GOP in the recorded vote
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40		1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT
41		Dukakis had a 51-47% edge in 24 battleground state polls. He lost by 7 million votes,
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43		1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
44		Clnton had a 18 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won the the recorded vote by just 6 million.
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46		1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
47		Clinton had a 16 million vote margin in the state exit polls. He won by just 8 million recorded votes.
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49		2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA
50		Gore needed just ONE of these states to win the election. He won the state exit polls by 6 million, matching the TVM.
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52		2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA
53		Kerry needed FL or OH to win. He won the national and state exit polls by 5-6 million with 51-52%. He won the TVM by 10 million with 53.6%.
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55		2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE
56		Obama had 58% in the state exit polls (exact match to the TVM), a 23 million margin (9.5 recorded) and 61% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
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58		Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls are adjusted to force a match the recorded vote.
59													EV
60													358
61													371
62													420
63		Presidential Summary											364
64		(in percent)											404
65				1988-2008
66			1988-2008	Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016
67			Votes Cast	688,813	102,224	113,866	105,017	110,826	125,736	131,144
68			Recorded	652,315	91,595	104,424	96,275	105,417	122,294	132,310	129,132	136,200
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70		Recorded Vote	Weighted	Average
71		Democrat	48.15	47.89	45.64	43.01	49.18	48.38	48.28	52.87	51.03	48.25
72		Republican	46.02	45.99	53.46	37.46	40.82	47.87	50.72	45.60	47.19	46.17
73		Recorded Margin (RV)	2.12	1.91	-7.82	5.55	8.60	0.51	-2.40	7.27	3.84	2.08
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76		State Exit Polls (unadjusted)
77		Respondents	374,937	62,490	34,016	54,410	69,716	58,215	76,192	82,388	na	102,702
78					24 states
79		Democrat	52.10	51.96	51.60	47.56	52.66	50.79	51.09	58.06	na	49.6
80		Republican	41.39	41.37	47.31	31.68	36.99	44.37	47.59	40.29	na	43.6
81		Exit Poll Margin (SEP)	10.71	10.59	4.29	15.88	15.67	6.42	3.50	17.77	na	6
82		Red Shift	4.29	4.34	6.06	5.17	3.54	2.96	2.95	5.25	na	1.96
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84		Probability Analysis		Total	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008
85		131 of 274 state exit polls moved beyond the margin of error to the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. The probability is E-131
86		State Exit Poll MoE +Cluster (average)		3.60%	3.47%	4.06%	3.48%	3.84%	3.43%	3.31%
87		Exit Polls red-shift to GOP		232	21	45	44	34	42	46
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89		Exit Polls exceeding MoE		135	12	27	19	17	23	37
90		Exit Polls exceeding MoE for GOP		131	12	27	18	16	22	36
91				4.59E-37
92		Probability of red-shift		2.07E-33	1.21E-04	8.00E-09	5.14E-08	6.56E-03	1.35E-06	1.04E-09
93	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE		2.61E-98	3.57E-10	4.99E-22	1.79E-12	1.97E-10	5.58E-17	4.59E-37
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95	BINOMDIST	Probability of exceeding MoE for GOP		4.06E-131	1.22E-13	6.94E-30	1.33E-15	7.38E-14	1.11E-15	4.62E-46
96		Pct exceeding MoE		47.81%	50.00%	52.94%	35.29%	31.37%	43.14%	70.59%
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98		National Exit Poll (unadjusted)		Average	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2008	2016
99		Respondents	71,436	14,287	11,596	15,236	n/a	13,108	13,660	17,836	n/a
100			Weighted				pre-elect poll