ABCDEFG
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecidedsNotes
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IOWA (28)78373Proportional 25 del based on vote. +1Super to Paul, Santorum, Undecideds include Steve Schefler and 2 delegates won by Perry free to support whomever in June
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NEW HAMPSHIRE (12)70032Proportion 12 del based on vote and 10% threshold. 2 Extra delegates left over go to Romney. The other 2 committed to Jon Huntsman are in the uncommitted column.
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South Carolina (25)202300WTA by CD and 11 awarded to Statewide Winner. Only Item in dispute is the CD lines per the Census. Depending on the Outcome, Romney may or may not have carried CD-1.
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Florida (50)500000WTA. Being disputed by the Gingrich Campaign based on RNC Rule 15 that prohibits WTA contests being held prior to 1 Apr
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Nevada (28)143650Proportional 28 del based on vote
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Minnesota (40)6175102Proportional, no guarantee, best method by Apportionment of the Statewide vote. +1 to Gingrich for Superdelegate Endorsement. Other 2 are undecided
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Colorado (36)1213443Proportional, no guarantee, best method by Apportionment of the Statewide vote. All 3 Superdelegates Undecided
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Maine (24)104181Proportional, no guarantee, best method by Apportionment of the Statewide vote. +2 to Romney for Superdelegate Endorsements. Charlie Webster remains Uncommitted
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LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY MAR
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecideds
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Arizona (29)290000WTA. Left to be seen if this gets disputed because AZ is violating Rule 15 in a similar fashion such as FL. So should Newt or Santorum win AZ and the FL results is reapportioned, could be factor
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Michigan (30)1119000WTA by CD and 2 awarded proportionally to statewide totals over 15%, similar to SC. The rules in MI make it unlikely that Gingrich and Paul will contest here.
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Washington (43)1214683Estimation. WTA by CD, Proportional by Statewide, Proportional Caucus (Fluid, Could drastically Change)
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SUPER TUESDAY
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecideds
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Vermont (17)170000WTA by CD, but VT has 1 CD. Also, 2nd place must get at least 20% to get delegates. Highly probably Romney gets 50% here
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Virginia (49)460003Only Romney and Paul are on the Ballot. Romney projected to win 50%.
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Massachusetts (41)364001Proportional. Romney projected to win all 9 CD's, along 60% vote. Santorum projected 17%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 10%. Very possible Romney sweeps all delegates. Get's 2 Supers except Jody Dow
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Oklahoma (43)5231203Santorum/Gingrich go 1-2 in all 5 CD's for 2-1 split. 40% Santorum 25% Gingrich 20% Romney. Paul fails qualify because <15% so 3 remaining delegates go to Statewide winner
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Alaska (27)5106331 CD, Proportional, gets tricky based off of the districts. I will estimate 40% Santorum, 25% Gingrich, 20% Romney, 15% Paul
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Idaho (32)032000See http://www.thegreenpapers.com. The Gingrich/Santorum block should back the candidate with more support to get over the 50% hump, which will deny Romney any delegates
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North Dakota (28)510733Proportional. Estimating 40% Santorum 25% Newt 20% Romney 15% Paul
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Georgia (76)10224400Gingrich wins all 14 District <50% *2 delegates each, Santorum 2nd in 12, Romney 2nd in 2. Gingrich 40% Santorum 30% Romney: 25% Paul: 5%. Paul ineligble for delegate via threshold
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Ohio (66)19281603Santorum wins 9CD's and 2nd in 4 CD's, Gingrich wins 3 CD's, 2nd in 5 CD's, Romney wins 4CD's second in 7 CD's. Santorum 40% Romney 25% Gingrich 20% Paul < Threshold
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Tennessee (58)6321703Santorum wins 8 CD's, Romney wins 1, Gingrich second in 8. Will assume Exec Committee will be in Proportion to statewide results. 40% Santorum 30% Gingrich 20% Romney 10% Paul
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FAVORABLE ROMNEY STATES
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecideds
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Utah (40)400000WTA Statewide. If Romney is still in, it's virtually no contest here
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District of Columbia (19)170002Winner take all. 1 Pledged Delegate to Romney. 2 Uncommitted Superdelegates
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Rhode Island (19)153001Proportional. 16 dels split into 8 in each CD. 15% Threshold statewide to get delegates. Assumes Romney 60%, Santorum 15%, Newt/Paul <15%. + 2 Supers for Romney
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New Jersey (50)500000WTA Statewide. Unlikely for Santorum/Gingrich/Paul to eclipse Romney
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Puerto Rico (23)220100WTA. Romney is probably only candidate to contend here in this open primary. +2 Supers to Romney, +1 to Gingrich
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Vigin Islands (9)70002Delegates elected directly by people. +1 Super for Romney. Probably only candidate to campagin here
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Guam (9)41103Proportional to match the Caucus. Assumes Romney 50-60%, and Gingrich Santorum the rest. All 3 Supers are uncommitted
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American Samoa (9)41103Similar to Guam, used the same process for allocating delegates
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Northern Marianas (9)41103Similar to American Samoa and Guam, used the same process for allocating delegates
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Maryland (37)316000WTA by District. Assumes Santorum wins MD1 (Eastern Shore) and MD(6) Western Maryland. Romney gets the other 6 CD's, plus 10 for winning state, and 3 Supers bound to the result
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Delaware (17)170000WTA. Tea Party is split this time around. May be closer than expected race. Does O'Donnell endorsement play any significant role?
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Connecticut (28)25000315 dels are WTA by District (3 each for 5 CD's), 10 more awarded if over 50% statewide, otherwise proportional with a 20% threshhold.
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Hawaii (20)95213Proportional. Assumes Romney wins both districts and statewide. Gets 2 dels from each 2CD and 5 of 11 statewide. Santorum 1 from each 2CD, 3 statewide. Newt gets 2 statewide, Paul 1
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California (172)11257003WTA by District. + 10 for Statewide winner. Assumes Romney would carry all 34 Heavily Democratic Districts and Anti-Romney would get all Republican Districts
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New York (95)7416302WTA by District. Romney may grab more because Santorum and Newt would be concentrating in PA. +1 Super to Newt
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FAVORABLE ANTI-ROMNEY
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecideds
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Arkansas (36)4181103Proportional by CD, Santorum/Newt split 2-1 each *4. Assumes Santorum 40% Newt 30% Romney: 15% Paul <15%. 1 del for all at 15%. Remaining 15 allocated based on statewide vote
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Missouri (52)1229470No formal system. We'll assume Santorum/Gingrich get 60% of the vote via the MO Primary, Romney 25%, and Paul 15%. Crazy caucus. Supers bound to support winner
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West Virginia (31)919201Primary Rules Not determined yet. +2 Supers to Romney. We assume this state looks good for Santorum to carry all CD's and the statewide vote with close to 50%. Revisit when rules come out
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Alabama (50)0361103WTA by CD if over 50% or top-2 over 20%. Assumes Santorum/Gingrich get 2-1 split. 20% Thresdhold. Romney failed to get 20% in 2008, highly probable he is shut out here
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Indiana (46)6220018WTA by CD. We assume Santorum wins 7 CD's and Romney wins a CD in Gary and/or Indianpolis at best. +1 Super to Romney. Large number of the delegation goes to convention unbound
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Mississippi (40)525802WTA by CD, WTA statewide if >50%. Assumes Santorum wins all 4 CD's. In 2 man race Santorum >50%. In 3 man, Santorum 45% Gingrich 25% Romney 15% Paul 15%. +1 Super to Romney
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Montana (26)710153No formal non-binding primary. Assumes Santorum 40%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 10%, Paul 20%. Extremely low turnout in 2008. Soft Count
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Kentucky (45)429633WTA by CD plus proportional at statwide for all 15% or more of the vote. Assumes Santorum 45%, Gingrich 25%, Romney 15%, Paul 15%
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North Carolina (55)1623853Proportional by Statewide. Assumes Santorum 45% Romney 30%, Newt 15%, Paul 10%. Conflicting info on the Supers. NC site says unbound, other site says bound
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Louisiana (46)3400032 step process. 20 dels allocated to primary proportional to those over 25%. 18 del based on CD but not nec. Tied to primary results. 5 chosen by Exec. Committee. Sant 55%, Rom 20%, Newt 15% Paul 10%
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Kansas (40)528700WTA by CD and Proportiional with 20% threshold unless only 1 person above 20% then no threshhold. Assumes Santorum wins all 4 CDs and 45%, Gingrich 25%, Romney 20%, Paul 10%
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Nebraska (35)917513Nonbound primary, 9 tied to the 3 CDs. Assume Santorum wins 2CD's, Romney maybe 1. Assumes Santorum 45% Romney 25%, Newt 20%, Paul 10%. Soft Count
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South Dakota (28)613603Proportional with 20% threshhold. Assuming Santorum 45%, Gingrich 20%, Romney 20%, Paul 15%
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Wisconsin (42)636000Supers bound if winner over 33% of vote. WTA by CD and 18 del awarded to Statewide winner. Assume Santorum wins 6CD's, Romney no more than 2. Santorum statewide winner
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Texas (155)3862381432 step proportional process. 152 allocated based on statewide totals. Number might change at convention when delegate selections are made by CD and at large with 20% threshold
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Projecting Santorum/Newt at 65% in some combination, Romney with 25%, and Paul with 10%
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DEPENDS
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StateRomneySantorumNewtPaulUndecideds
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Pennsylvania (72)283921259 allocated by CD, but unpledged to the results. 5 district rewarded as most GOP friendly receive extra delegate. 10 delegates selection by executive committee
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Assumes Santorum 40%, Romney 35%, Newt 20%, Paul 15%. Soft count by CD's. Santorum should win at least 10 of the 18, but no allocation rules present as to WTA or 2-1 split due to unpledged
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Will split the 10 by the Executive committee proportionally +1 Super to Romney. We assume Santorum wins 5 most loyal GOP Districts + 5 regular districts and Romney wins 8 CD's
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Illinois (69)4422201Similar rules to PA. Romney strongest in Chicago/No IL and IL/IA border near Davenport. Santorum/Gingrich stronger in Central/Southern IL. Delegates are officially unpledged
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Will soft count. Romney probably has 12 CD's and Santorum 6 in the ones he's eligible for delegates. 12 delegates are elected by state committee. Will assume they are selected based on
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the proportion of the vote. A reverse might be here Romney 45%, Santorum 30%, Newt 15%, Paul <15%
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Wyoming (29)1311212If you can figure out WY's rules, good for you. Let's just call this a split for now until somebody can explain in English what the Hell this process is. Seems to favor Romney
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Mormon is only 11% here, no not as advantageous as first thought
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Oregon (28)99433Mail primary (Oh Lord). Proportional based on statewide totals. This is East vs Portland/Eugene. Split for now Romney 35%, Santorum 35%, Newt 15%, Paul 15%
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New Mexico (23)86333Proportional based on 15% Threshhold. Assume Romney 40%, Santorum 30%, Newt 15%, Paul 15%
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PROJECTED TOTALS HEADING TO THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION972823279951182287