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Revision DateVersionDescription of Change
24
2/21/2012V14.8Corrected formula error pointed out by Init_2_Winitall on YMB related to average subs.
25
2/24/2012V15.0Updated to reflect TiVo's Q4-2012 Report on 2/23/2012. Downward revisions to my subscriber estimates to account for the loss of (26) TiVo-Owned v estimate of (15) and gain of 260 MSO subscriptions for a net gain of total subscriptions of 234.
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3/15/2012V15.1Updated subscriber historical and projected estimates based on ONO numbers released 3/12/2012
27
3/21/2012V15.2Removed Canal from model until further information is received on progress of deal.
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5/25/2012V15.3Deleted Canal row from model. Confirmed that it is a dead project. Adjusted penetration estimates for Comcast and others to reflect a more conservative perspective.
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7/24/2012V15.4Adjustments based on Virgin Media Q2-12 Earnings, further updates after ONO reports on 7/27/2012
30
7/25/2012V15.5Fixed incorrect quarter ending dates on subscriber metrics workbook; updated Com Hem to 1.74M addressable subscribers
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7/26/2012V15.6Tweaked Virgin Media growth estimates (upward) - conservative adds per day based on previous two quarters.
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7/27/2012V15.7Adjusted ONO's subscriber base to 897 (per Q2 earnings release) and adjusted subscriber estimates upward for FY13.
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8/21/2012V15.8Added GCI (Alaska) after deal announcement on 8/21/2012
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8/26/2012V15.9Tweaked Evolution data - Northland has 322,000 households passed and 81,000 video subs
35
8/31/2012V16.0Reduced Comcast subscriber penetration (0.4% to 0.2% for FY13; 1.0% to 0.4% for FY14-FY16); Reduce DTV penetration from 0.4% to 0.3% for FY13-FY16; Delete Cox sub contribution until some clarity is provided by TiVo or Cox; Slightly increased Suddenlink penetration from 3 to 4% for FY13 and 4 to 5% for FY14-FY16;
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9/24/2012V16.1Update to reflect Verizon Settlement on 9/24/2012
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9/27/2012V16.2Added Mediacom deal which was announced on 9/27/2012.
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10/11/2012V16.3Added Midcontinent deal which was announced on 10/11/2012
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10/23/2012V16.4Updated to reflect Virgin Media Q3 Earnings Results on 10/23/2012 reflecting net TiVo adds of 205,900. Dropped VMED penetration for FY13 to 24.7%.
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11/7/2012V16.5Updated to reflect ONO's TV subscriber base reduction to 882,000 with increase of TiVo subscriber's to 56,000 (Q3-12 earnings).
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11/9/2012V16.6Updated to reflect strong growth at Suddenlink in Q3. 30% increase in Digital Video Customers.
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11/10/2012V16.7Updated to reflect GCI's Q3 Release where Basic Video Subscribers dropped to 122,200 with 89,200 HD-DVR boxes
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11/25/2012V16.8Updated SGM to reflect increased penetration at Suddenlink with the launch of the Stream/Mini & more observed commitment from management to the TiVo Ecosystem; lowered DTV penetration even further;
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11/27/2012V16.9Cable One selects TiVo as its exclusive software provider for its 613,000 basic video subscribers.
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12/1/2012V17.0Model updates post Q3FY13 Earnings Release;
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12/6/2012V17.1Adjusted some subscriber penetration estimates; e.g., lowered VMED penetration in out years to bring total penetration to 80.8%;
47
12/21/2012V17.2Minor tweaks to detailed income model (e.g., tweaked VZ revenue per CC transcript...)
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2/11/2013V17.3Lowered Virgin Estimate after their Q4 report of 187,300 TiVo adds.
49
2/22/2013V17.4Removed Charter Communications from sub growth model - deal appears to be dead based on Charter Q4 Conference Call.
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2/28/2013V17.5Adjusted Evolution Digital numbers based on Naveen Chopra comment about a dozen operators using this channel. Tweaked sub growth on Tier 2's and Retail based on the Mini thin-client launch. Adjust FY14 Mediacom penetration ramp downward slightly to account for a slow ramp up to their entire footprint in CY13.
51
3/10/2013V17.6Tweaked MSO ARPU numbers to correspond with increasing MSO revenue QoQ. Also tweaked TiVo-Owned MSO ARPU numbers to account for improving trend in retail subs after the release of the TiVo Mini.
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3/14/2013V17.7Tweaked ONO penetration number based on Q4 release showing accelerated growth of TiVo Subs to 95,000 (39,000 net gain); 11% penetration.
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4/12/2013V17.8Tweaked ONO penetration numbers again based on news release(s) that ONO has reached 150,000 TiVo subs in early April -- accelerated growth.
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4/24/2013V17.9Slightly increased Virgin Media penetration for FY14 after their Q1 report of 171,900 TiVo adds (40% penetration).
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5/7/2013V18.0Tweaked ONO & Suddenlink penetration numbers based on Q1 releases.
56
5/20/2013V18.1Update for Q1F14 Results... announced deal with Atlantic Broadband. Reduced penetration estimates on Suddenlink (80,000 devices comment).
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6/7/2013V18.2Post Arris/Moto/Cisco settlement
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6/13/2013V18.3Model tweaks and valuation tweaks throughout...
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8/26/2013V18.4Minor downward adjustments based on Virgin Media and ONO along with weak US MSO numbers and retail slow-down prior to Roamio release.
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8/30/2013V18.5Adjustments to account for TiVo's FQ314 Guidance and Arris/Moto/Cisco/Google Settlement accounting.
61
11/15/2013V18.6Updated to reflect Q3 results from Virgin Media, ONO, Mediacom, and Suddenlink.
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2/24/2014V19.0Updated to reflect TiVo F14Q3 actuals and revised subscriber counts from Virgin Media, ONO, and Com Hem (4th quarter earnings).
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2/27/2014V19.1Update in progress following release of TiVo's F14Q4 results.
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3/9/2014V19.2Continued refinement following TiVo's F14Q4.
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3/11/2014V19.3Updated Suddenlink penetration based on their Q413 release. Reduces subscriber growth multiplier for US Tier 2/3 from 2.5 to 2.0 based on Suddenlink metrics.
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4/29/2014V19.4Added sub-growth for deal with Wavedivision Holdings which was announced March 26, 2014
67
5/30/2014V20.0Updated following TiVo F15Q1 Report
68
7/21/2014V20.1Updated following Cogeco Canada announcement
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8/24/2014V20.2Pre-earnings announcement update
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8/27/2014V20.3Update post Q2F15 earnings.
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8/28/2014V20.4Updated after clarification from TiVo IR about diluted income not including income expense associated with the convertible that amount to approximately $1.25mn per quarter.
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9/11/2014V20.5Update after Armstrong US Announcement - 200,000 addressable video subs
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9/26/2014V20.6Increased ONO's penetration for TiVo's FY15.
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10/22/2014V20.7Add minimal Cogeco penetration fo FY15 after Cogeco launches earlier than I anticipated.
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11/25/2014V21.0Update following Q3F15 Earnings Release.
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2/26/2015V21.1Update to refect Frontier deal and Virgin Media expansion
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3/3/2015V21.2Pre Q4 Earnings Update
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3/4/2015V21.3Post Q4 Earnings Update
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12/1/2015V22.0Q3F16 Earnings Update
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Latest RevisionV22.0
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