| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Santa Clarita - Landscape Maintenance District #1 | ||||||
2 | Ballot Weighting Analysis - Ballot Proposal FY 2011-2012 | ||||||
3 | Note: This analysis applies only to how the ballots were mailed, not the final results. The data in these tables is taken from | ||||||
4 | the Engineer's Report for the propsed LMD. This is a relatively complicated proposal to analyze as every Zone and different | ||||||
5 | type of property has a different ballot. Even with that, this analysis is directionally correct and confirms that there is a huge | ||||||
6 | potential for 'Yes' votes to overpower the new taxpayers in Newhall and those being annexed into Zone 2008-1. | ||||||
7 | Only the final ballot count will tell us how this actually plays out. | ||||||
8 | |||||||
9 | The Powerful "YES" Vote: | Total | Ballot | Previous | Total LMD | ||
10 | More likely to vote 'yes' due to a decrease | Ballot | 2011/2012 | 2010/2011 | Revenue | ||
11 | in overall assessment. | EBU's | Weight | Rate | Rate | Difference | Gain/Loss |
12 | Zone 7(McBean Newhall Ranch-Creekside) | 1028.00 | $252,218.70 | $245.35 | $247.78 | -$2.43 | -$2,498.03 |
13 | Zone T2 (Old Orchard) | 1128.70 | $200,299.00 | $177.46 | $191.31 | -$13.85 | -$15,632.79 |
14 | Zone T3 (Valencia Hills) | 461.25 | $169,970.00 | $368.50 | $379.81 | -$11.31 | -$5,217.36 |
15 | Zone T46 (Northbridge) | 2345.82 | $1,827,067.00 | $778.86 | $792.46 | -$13.60 | -$31,897.55 |
16 | Zone T47 (Northpark) | 1924.76 | $736,684.00 | $382.74 | $392.00 | -$9.26 | -$17,823.49 |
17 | Total | $3,186,238.70 | -$73,069.23 | ||||
18 | Note: While these areas are overwhelmingly residential and the above rates apply, the commercial properties in these are will see | ||||||
19 | an increase in their assessment and ballot weight. They may be more likely to vote "no". | ||||||
20 | |||||||
21 | |||||||
22 | Circle J - A bit more complex, | Total | Ballot | Previous | Total LMD | ||
23 | but clearly in the "Yes" column. | Ballot | 2011/2012 | 2010/2011 | Revenue | ||
24 | Zone 27 (Circle J Ranch - CJR) | EBU's | Weight | Rate | Rate | Difference | Gain/Loss |
25 | CJR A (Specific parcels, EBU's and Ballot weight cannot be found in | $693.40 | $765.36 | -$71.96 | $0.00 | ||
26 | CJR C engineer's report or other documentation at this time) | $693.40 | $1,457.68 | -$764.28 | $0.00 | ||
27 | CJR B1 | $693.40 | $777.83 | -$84.43 | $0.00 | ||
28 | CJR B2 | $693.40 | $1,654.94 | -$961.54 | $0.00 | ||
29 | CJR B3 4 (15 Parcels) | $693.40 | $133.14 | $560.26 | $0.00 | ||
30 | Total | 851.56 | $590,191.00 | ||||
31 | While 15 Parcels are showing a significant increase and will likely vote 'NO' the rest ot the subzones are showing a | ||||||
32 | significant decrease and will most assuredly vote 'YES'. This would equal about a $580,000 weighted yes vote and more | ||||||
33 | than offset the potential 'no' votes from the comercial parcels in the "Powerful Yes" above. | ||||||
34 | |||||||
35 | |||||||
36 | The New Vote: | Total | Ballot | Previous | Total LMD | ||
37 | Properties paying for the first time. | Ballot | 2011/2012 | 2010/2011 | Revenue | ||
38 | Also shows combined new LMD revenue. | EBU's | Weight | Rate | Rate | Difference | Gain/Loss |
39 | Zone 2008-1 (Annexed Parcels, Medians) | 6775.37 | $405,776.00 | $59.89 | $0.00 | $59.89 | $405,776.73 |
40 | Zone 28 (Newhall) | 4917.15 | $351,922.00 | $71.57 | $0.00 | $71.57 | $351,920.32 |
41 | Total | $757,698.00 | $757,698.00 | ||||
42 | The total revenue gain from these zones will be offset by the net losses in the rest ot the zones. The city will see a net gain in | ||||||
43 | LMD revenues of approximately $150,000 if the proposal passes (Per Dennis Luppens, Special Districts Administrator) . | ||||||
44 | |||||||
45 | |||||||
46 | The Less Significant: | Total | Ballot | Previous | Total LMD | ||
47 | Either no change in rate or methodology | Ballot | 2011/2012 | 2010/2011 | Revenue | ||
48 | change is difficult to make analysis. | EBU's | Weight | Rate | Rate | Difference | Gain/Loss |
49 | Zone 17 (Bouquet Cyn/Railroad Av | 1275.27 | $98,860.25 | $77.52 | $77.52 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
50 | Zone 26 (Centre Point Comm) | 2429.20 | $204,490.00 | $84.18 | Per/Acre | Unkown | Unkown |
51 | Zone T3B (Valencia Hills - Trees) | 206.46 | $7,184.50 | $34.80 | $34.80 | $7,184.76 | |
52 | Zone T4 (Valencia Meadows) | 956.39 | $193,745.00 | $202.58 | $202.58 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
53 | Total | $504,279.75 | |||||
54 | |||||||
55 | |||||||
56 | Summary: | ||||||
57 | Total Ballot Weight (Powerful "Yes") | $3,186,238.70 | |||||
58 | Circle J likely "Yes" | $580,000.00 | |||||
59 | Total likely "Yes" | $3,766,238.70 | |||||
60 | VS: Total Ballot Weight (All others) | $1,261,977.75 | |||||
61 | |||||||
62 | Conclusion: While not everyone in the "YES" zones will vote yes, most probably will. | ||||||
63 | Even if most in the other zones voted no it is unlikely they can overcome the huge | ||||||
64 | imbalance in ballot weighting. Only the actual voting outcome will say for sure. | ||||||