Daily Trading Journal

Date:

24.04.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• Blue path played out from yesterday : didnt take out the high and sold off
• “some red days incoming” , closed yesterday red, and also today is red

BTC

• Price:
• Compression today at 66K
• Price tried to go higher but rejected again = triple top
• Lost H1 50EMA support
• Big impulse H4 candle down towards 64K, with high volume
• Multiple structure levels broken = we are in a LTF downtrend

• Liquidity levels:
• UP:
• 66714.5 (pre breakdown), 67198, 67937
• DOWN:
• 64200.0 (currently taken out), 62888.0, 59521.7

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• OI getting added on the way down, big divergence in price and OI
• lot of positions offside here = if longs, we keep going lower until they are forced to close
• if shorts, after the longs get taken out an aggressive squeeze could happen
• Spot CVD indicating selling aggression during the consolidation we had at 66K, while Future CVDs were sideways together with price
• suggesting price got held up by futures, while spot was distributing
• Spot premium still present, Funding getting close the neutral (0.01)

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Long buildup from the whole rally since 60K
• Quite some shorts have opened at the highs at 66K, and probably more opened on this current selloff

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BTC possible paths

1. Blue: reclaim of key pivot, if shorts are really offside they could get squeezed and we might go towards 67K

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• Purple: bit chop here, maybe trying to reclaim key pivot but rejecting, going lower to the next liquidity level and trying to form a bottom there

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• Green: Straight unwind of long positions, going straight lower to grab liquidity and retrace the V reversal

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• Alts holding up stronger on this current selloff
• Alts showed great strength agains BTC on this current rally we had
• Alts kept making new highs as BTC was sideways
• BTC D big red candle, back into the box, if it closes like this or lower false breakout confirmed

Stocks, Macro

• Gold compressing after a bounce off the lows - might start retracing the move, heading to new lows
• Dollar flipped H1 bands into resistance currently - might be a lower high blounce before new lows
• S&P and NDQ big wicks down, those got bought up, retesting H4 bands
• If we can see them hold the bands and not lose them, there might be some upside potential in them
• If they lose the bands and fill in the wicks this might have been just a complacency bounce and they go back towards their lows

Other coins, honorable mentions

• APU: went for a strong move up, so far got sold into, looking like a lower high bounce.
• If it can hold here and reclaim 58, a breakout could be possible
• If it loses the bands it might need more time, and go towards lower volatility

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• AKT:
• As we can see on the current Volume profile : from the recent swing low to the pump high, there is a huge gap in the middle where no volume was traded - price might fill it in completely and find support at 4 where previously support was

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• If it can hold here, and there is demand, it might reclaim 5.3, and that could lead to a real breakout after this current false one, filling in also the big wick towards the upside

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• Sentiment had again a big ROC. From holding bags, and hope that everything will be fine it shifted very fast to boredom.
• People are looking for low volatility summer, and want to de-risk, and leave the market, and buy back slowly through the low volatility later

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• Testing support again is also key, as that will make a lot of people de-risk at the lows, while feeling safe that probably price will be near in the next months due to low action

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• I tend to think as it is an election year with wars, there might be more to come, and the more people want something the higher the % is that they won't get it
• BTC might just slowly grind higher towards ATH with people fading it, would be the best case scenario

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Further notes about the market - if any

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