Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving��Internal Variability and Temperature

Richard B. Rood

rbrood@umich.edu

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Winter 2021

GISS Temperature 2002

1997-98 El Niño

GISS Temperature 2018

1997-98 El Niño

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

Eastern Pacific

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

Polar – Middle Latitude Variability

Winter 2014

• It was very cold in Michigan in Winter 2014.

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Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly

Polar – Middle Latitude Variability

January 2014 in Perspective

• U.S.: 53^rd coolest, 5^th driest
• Global 4^th Warmest

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January 2014: Global Temperature

What is the consequence of the averaging period?

GISS Temperature with 1981 - Base

Polar – Middle Latitude Variability

- 6.8 8.3

GISS Temperature with 1951 - Base

Polar – Middle Latitude Variability

- 4.8 11.2

GISS Temperature with 1951 - Base

2 degrees warmer compared to 1981 base

- 4.8 11.2

3 degrees warmer compared to 1981 base

GISS Temperature with 1951 - Base

2 degrees warmer compared to 1981 base

- 4.8 11.2

3 degrees warmer compared to 1981 base

A worrisome cold anomaly in North Atlantic

Role of El Niño (again)

Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly

Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific

Eastern Pacific

A worrisome cold anomaly in North Atlantic

El Niño – La Niña

El Nino

La Nina

Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Temperature Record

Dynamic variability in the temperature record

• A science-based analysis of the temperature record requires consideration of causes of variability. Can we explain some of the noise? Often, yes.
• We have in this lecture not considered volcanoes, which are, often, quite important.
• After we consider all of the causes of variability we can identify and quantify, there remains unexplained variability.
• Randomness? Irreducible uncertainty?
• Demand for further investigation.