Representation Model
Victoria Saanich Citizens’ Assembly Civic Lottery
Version 2.2
What is a representation model?
A representation model defines the aims/goals of Citizens’ Assembly member representation, and therefore the Civic Lottery process, as a series of minimum and maximum of attributes or criteria. The ultimate goal is to find balance of attributes that support the concept of effective representation of a population/community.
In addition, the attributes must support an effective random selection process by ensuring that individual participants in the lottery all have a reasonability fair chance of being randomly selected while still ensuring the group effectively represents the population.
Compliance: Must Be
From the time of the lottery registration deadline (May 30, 2024) to the issuing of the Assembly report (June 2025), Assembly members must be:
Compliance: Must Not Be
From the time of the lottery registration deadline (May 30, 2024) to the issuing of the Assembly report (June 2025), Assembly members must not be:
Our Criteria and Sources
Gender — Statistics Canada (2021 Census) + equity
Age — Statistics Canada (2021 Census)
Primary Geography — Statistics Canada (2021 Census)
Secondary Geography —Statistics Canada (2021 Census) + estimates
Population Groups — Statistics Canada (2021 Census)
Housing Status — Statistics Canada (2021 Census) + other considerations
Recommended: Minimums and Maximums
This document outlines recommended distributions of Citizens' Assembly members based on responses to the Civic Lottery.
Minimum: The lowest number of a particular criteria selected for the Assembly.
Maximum: The greatest number of a particular criteria selected for the Assembly.
Variances create greater equity within the lottery for the chances of being selected at random while balancing for representation. Draft variances to recommendations (minimums and maximums) have been included, but will be reconsidered when all complete responses have been counted, validated, and assessed at the time of the lottery.
Gender
Category | StatsCanada | Recommendation | Min. | Max |
Man | 25 | 22 | 21 | 23 |
Woman | 23 | 22 | 21 | 23 |
Open (self-describe) | Less than 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Some variance allowed.
Ages
Category | StatsCanada | Recommendation | Min. | Max. |
16 to 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
30 to 44 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 12 |
45 to 64 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
65+ | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
Some variance allowed.
Population Groups
Category | StatsCanada | Recommendation | Min. | Max. |
Indigenous, First Nations, Métis, Inuit | 2 | 4 | 4 | Open |
Visible Minority / Racialized* | 10 | 10 | 10 | Open |
White | 36 | 34 | Open | 36 |
Minimum representation for Indigenous, First Nations, Métis, Inuit and Visible Minority / Racialized* members. Maximums can be reviewed and set once final responses are received. �*Review category wording and amend based on traditions and Statistics Canada notations.
Primary Geography
Category | StatsCanada | Recommendation |
Saanich | 27 | 27 |
Victoria | 21 | 21 |
No variance allowed.
Secondary Geography
Clusters
Secondary Geography
Distribute 1 ‘seat’ of the Assembly �to each sub-area.
24 of 48 seats
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats R1 |
Victoria | Burnside/Gorge | 1 |
Victoria | Downtown | 1 |
Victoria | Fairfield | 1 |
Victoria | Fernwood | 1 |
Victoria | Hillside/Quadra | 1 |
Victoria | James Bay | 1 |
Victoria | Jubilee | 1 |
Victoria | North Park | 1 |
Victoria | Oaklands | 1 |
Victoria | Rockland | 1 |
Victoria | Victoria West | 1 |
Victoria | Gonzales | 1 |
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats R1 |
Saanich | Blenkinsop† | 1 |
Saanich | Cadboro Bay | 1 |
Saanich | Carey | 1 |
Saanich | Cordova Bay | 1 |
Saanich | Gordon Head | 1 |
Saanich | North Quadra | 1 |
Saanich | Quadra | 1 |
Saanich | Royal Oak | 1 |
Saanich | Rural Saanich† | 1 |
Saanich | Saanich Core | 1 |
Saanich | Shelbourne | 1 |
Saanich | Tillicum | 1 |
Secondary Geography
Distribute remaining ‘seats’ �to each sub-area by population.
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats R2 |
Victoria | Burnside/Gorge | 1 |
Victoria | Downtown | 1 |
Victoria | Fairfield | 1 |
Victoria | Fernwood | 1 |
Victoria | Hillside/Quadra | 1 |
Victoria | James Bay | 1 |
Victoria | Jubilee | 1 |
Victoria | North Park | 0 |
Victoria | Oaklands | 1 |
Victoria | Rockland | 0 |
Victoria | Victoria West | 1 |
Victoria | Gonzales | 0 |
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats R2 |
Saanich | Blenkinsop† | 0 |
Saanich | Cadboro Bay | 1 |
Saanich | Carey | 2 |
Saanich | Cordova Bay | 1 |
Saanich | Gordon Head | 3 |
Saanich | North Quadra | 1 |
Saanich | Quadra | 1 |
Saanich | Royal Oak | 1 |
Saanich | Rural Saanich† | 1 |
Saanich | Saanich Core | 1 |
Saanich | Shelbourne | 2 |
Saanich | Tillicum | 1 |
Secondary Geography
Add the rounds of seat distribution together
R1 + R2
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats Total |
Victoria | Burnside/Gorge | 2 |
Victoria | Downtown | 2 |
Victoria | Fairfield | 2 |
Victoria | Fernwood | 2 |
Victoria | Hillside/Quadra | 2 |
Victoria | James Bay | 2 |
Victoria | Jubilee | 2 |
Victoria | North Park | 1 |
Victoria | Oaklands | 2 |
Victoria | Rockland | 1 |
Victoria | Victoria West | 2 |
Victoria | Gonzales | 1 |
Municipality | Sub-Area | Seats R1+R2 |
Saanich | Blenkinsop† | 1 |
Saanich | Cadboro Bay | 2 |
Saanich | Carey | 3 |
Saanich | Cordova Bay | 2 |
Saanich | Gordon Head | 4 |
Saanich | North Quadra | 2 |
Saanich | Quadra | 2 |
Saanich | Royal Oak | 2 |
Saanich | Rural Saanich† | 2 |
Saanich | Saanich Core | 2 |
Saanich | Shelbourne | 3 |
Saanich | Tillicum | 2 |
Secondary Geography
Simplify the geographies to ensure the lottery selection odds/probabilities are high/fair for as many of the participants as possible.
M: Sub-Area | Seats Total |
V: James Bay | Downtown | Fairfield | 6 |
V: Victoria West | Burnside/Gorge | North Park | 5 |
V: Hillside/Quadra | Oaklands | Fernwood | 6 |
V: Jubilee | Rockland | Gonzales | 4 |
S: Cordova Bay | Royal Oak | Blenkinsop | 5 |
S: Saanich Core | Quadra | Shelbourne | 7 |
S: Tillicom | Carey | North Quadra | 7 |
S: Gordon Head | Cadboro Bay | 6 |
S: Rural Saanich | 2 |
No variance allowed.
Housing / Home Status
Category | StatsCanada | Recommendation | Min. | Max. |
Home owner | 26 | 25 | 24 | 26 |
Renter | 20 | 20 | 19 | 21 |
Subsidized housing | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Open Response* | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Some variance allowed. Open response intended for possible transitionally housed or unhoused participants. *Unhoused or underhoused — Review category wording and amend.