1 of 16

Representation Model

Victoria Saanich Citizens’ Assembly Civic Lottery

Version 2.2

2 of 16

What is a representation model?

A representation model defines the aims/goals of Citizens’ Assembly member representation, and therefore the Civic Lottery process, as a series of minimum and maximum of attributes or criteria. The ultimate goal is to find balance of attributes that support the concept of effective representation of a population/community.

In addition, the attributes must support an effective random selection process by ensuring that individual participants in the lottery all have a reasonability fair chance of being randomly selected while still ensuring the group effectively represents the population.

3 of 16

Compliance: Must Be

From the time of the lottery registration deadline (May 30, 2024) to the issuing of the Assembly report (June 2025), Assembly members must be:

  • A resident of Victoria or Saanich for at least six months at the time of the Civic Lottery response deadline.
  • 16 years of age or older.
  • Able to attend and participate in all of the sessions of the Citizens’ Assembly.

4 of 16

Compliance: Must Not Be

From the time of the lottery registration deadline (May 30, 2024) to the issuing of the Assembly report (June 2025), Assembly members must not be:

  • A current employee or a representative of employees of the municipality of Victoria or Saanich.
  • An elected official or a representative of elected officials at any level of government.
  • A member of a municipal board, committee, or foundation.
  • An active business or organization providing research, policy, or planning advice to either municipality.

5 of 16

Our Criteria and Sources

Gender — Statistics Canada (2021 Census) + equity

Age — Statistics Canada (2021 Census)

Primary GeographyStatistics Canada (2021 Census)

Secondary GeographyStatistics Canada (2021 Census) + estimates

Population Groups — Statistics Canada (2021 Census)

Housing Status — Statistics Canada (2021 Census) + other considerations

6 of 16

Recommended: Minimums and Maximums

This document outlines recommended distributions of Citizens' Assembly members based on responses to the Civic Lottery.

Minimum: The lowest number of a particular criteria selected for the Assembly.

Maximum: The greatest number of a particular criteria selected for the Assembly.

Variances create greater equity within the lottery for the chances of being selected at random while balancing for representation. Draft variances to recommendations (minimums and maximums) have been included, but will be reconsidered when all complete responses have been counted, validated, and assessed at the time of the lottery.

7 of 16

Gender

Category

StatsCanada

Recommendation

Min.

Max

Man

25

22

21

23

Woman

23

22

21

23

Open (self-describe)

Less than 1

4

2

6

Some variance allowed.

8 of 16

Ages

Category

StatsCanada

Recommendation

Min.

Max.

16 to 29

10

10

9

11

30 to 44

11

11

10

12

45 to 64

14

14

13

15

65+

13

13

12

14

Some variance allowed.

9 of 16

Population Groups

Category

StatsCanada

Recommendation

Min.

Max.

Indigenous, First Nations, Métis, Inuit

2

4

4

Open

Visible Minority / Racialized*

10

10

10

Open

White

36

34

Open

36

Minimum representation for Indigenous, First Nations, Métis, Inuit and Visible Minority / Racialized* members. Maximums can be reviewed and set once final responses are received. �*Review category wording and amend based on traditions and Statistics Canada notations.

10 of 16

Primary Geography

Category

StatsCanada

Recommendation

Saanich

27

27

Victoria

21

21

No variance allowed.

11 of 16

Secondary Geography

Clusters

12 of 16

Secondary Geography

Distribute 1 ‘seat’ of the Assembly �to each sub-area.

24 of 48 seats

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats R1

Victoria

Burnside/Gorge

1

Victoria

Downtown

1

Victoria

Fairfield

1

Victoria

Fernwood

1

Victoria

Hillside/Quadra

1

Victoria

James Bay

1

Victoria

Jubilee

1

Victoria

North Park

1

Victoria

Oaklands

1

Victoria

Rockland

1

Victoria

Victoria West

1

Victoria

Gonzales

1

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats R1

Saanich

Blenkinsop†

1

Saanich

Cadboro Bay

1

Saanich

Carey

1

Saanich

Cordova Bay

1

Saanich

Gordon Head

1

Saanich

North Quadra

1

Saanich

Quadra

1

Saanich

Royal Oak

1

Saanich

Rural Saanich†

1

Saanich

Saanich Core

1

Saanich

Shelbourne

1

Saanich

Tillicum

1

13 of 16

Secondary Geography

Distribute remaining ‘seats’ �to each sub-area by population.

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats R2

Victoria

Burnside/Gorge

1

Victoria

Downtown

1

Victoria

Fairfield

1

Victoria

Fernwood

1

Victoria

Hillside/Quadra

1

Victoria

James Bay

1

Victoria

Jubilee

1

Victoria

North Park

0

Victoria

Oaklands

1

Victoria

Rockland

0

Victoria

Victoria West

1

Victoria

Gonzales

0

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats R2

Saanich

Blenkinsop†

0

Saanich

Cadboro Bay

1

Saanich

Carey

2

Saanich

Cordova Bay

1

Saanich

Gordon Head

3

Saanich

North Quadra

1

Saanich

Quadra

1

Saanich

Royal Oak

1

Saanich

Rural Saanich†

1

Saanich

Saanich Core

1

Saanich

Shelbourne

2

Saanich

Tillicum

1

14 of 16

Secondary Geography

Add the rounds of seat distribution together

R1 + R2

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats Total

Victoria

Burnside/Gorge

2

Victoria

Downtown

2

Victoria

Fairfield

2

Victoria

Fernwood

2

Victoria

Hillside/Quadra

2

Victoria

James Bay

2

Victoria

Jubilee

2

Victoria

North Park

1

Victoria

Oaklands

2

Victoria

Rockland

1

Victoria

Victoria West

2

Victoria

Gonzales

1

Municipality

Sub-Area

Seats R1+R2

Saanich

Blenkinsop†

1

Saanich

Cadboro Bay

2

Saanich

Carey

3

Saanich

Cordova Bay

2

Saanich

Gordon Head

4

Saanich

North Quadra

2

Saanich

Quadra

2

Saanich

Royal Oak

2

Saanich

Rural Saanich†

2

Saanich

Saanich Core

2

Saanich

Shelbourne

3

Saanich

Tillicum

2

15 of 16

Secondary Geography

Simplify the geographies to ensure the lottery selection odds/probabilities are high/fair for as many of the participants as possible.

M: Sub-Area

Seats Total

V: James Bay | Downtown | Fairfield

6

V: Victoria West | Burnside/Gorge | North Park

5

V: Hillside/Quadra | Oaklands | Fernwood

6

V: Jubilee | Rockland | Gonzales

4

S: Cordova Bay | Royal Oak | Blenkinsop

5

S: Saanich Core | Quadra | Shelbourne

7

S: Tillicom | Carey | North Quadra

7

S: Gordon Head | Cadboro Bay

6

S: Rural Saanich

2

No variance allowed.

16 of 16

Housing / Home Status

Category

StatsCanada

Recommendation

Min.

Max.

Home owner

26

25

24

26

Renter

20

20

19

21

Subsidized housing

2

2

2

3

Open Response*

0

1

0

1

Some variance allowed. Open response intended for possible transitionally housed or unhoused participants. *Unhoused or underhoused — Review category wording and amend.