Distributed Solar Energy and Battery Storage, including EV Virtual Power Plants, for Electric Co-ops and Municipal Utilities in the US

TEAM 6: ELLIS EWERT, KUNAL KRISHNASWAMI, RUTH MURDOCH, SNEHA SEQUEIRA 

Introduction

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• Community solar programs allow people to access solar energy benefits, but electric cooperatives and municipal utilities struggle to offer solar energy programs due to lack of funding/expertise 
• 2022 IRA allows municipalities and cooperatives to receive tax incentives and help employ solar energy technologies (Energy.gov)
• Due to financial constraints, municipalities and cooperatives must invest in photovoltaic panels to generate solar energy (Solar United Neighbors)
• Virtual power plants can help grid resiliency and can be supported by additional electric vehicle investment, reducing fossil fuel usage 

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Investment in solar energy and virtual power plants from municipalities and cooperatives can create jobs, enable economic development, improve grid resiliency and improve sustainability efforts for communities. 

Prior Analysis 

• Began with local analysis of the state of Georgia
• Only applied distributed solar subsidy and solar carve-out
• CO2e reduced by 1 million metric tons with an achievable potential scenario by 2033 
• Technical potential would reduce CO2e by 261 metric tons 
• Goal was to expand the analysis nationally and to supplement solar energy incentives with electric vehicle incentives  

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Georgia Policy CO2e Reduction

Energy Policy Simulator Assumptions

• "Original" Business as Usual – No changes to any implementation of policies on national simulator 
• "Adjusted" Business as Usual – To reflect any current policies 
• Distributed Solar Subsidy – 25% 
• Electric Vehicle Subsidy – 15% 
• Achievable Potential Scenario
• Distributed Solar Carve-Out – 3% starting in 2024 
• Distributed Solar Subsidy – Remained the same @ 25%
• Electric Vehicle Subsidy – Increased from 15% to 18%  
• Technical Potential Scenario 
• Distributed Solar Carve-Out Emissions Equivalent – 20%
• 86 million EVs on the road and 4.315 TWh/year of VPP storage by 2050 

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Achievable Potential Scenario

The APS is significantly better at reducing CO2e than the Original BAU, and slightly better than the Adjusted BAU. 

Achievable Potential Scenario – By Sector

Electricity Sector

Transportation Sector

Electricity sector is driving most of the change in CO2e reductions. 

Transportation sector improves with the increased EV subsidy. 

Achievable Potential Scenario  - Comparison

The maximum difference in CO2e in comparison to Original or Adjusted BAU peaks around 2036-2037.  

Achievable Potential Scenario – Comparison by Sector

Electricity Sector

Transportation Sector

Electricity sector consistently reduces CO2e through 2050.  

Transportation experiences max. change of CO2e in mid-2030s.  

Achievable Potential Scenario Summary

Technical Potential Assumptions: Solar

Business As Usual + Technical Potential Addition = Total Distributed Solar

By 2050, 745 TWh of solar power a year could be generated at technical potential

Technical Potential Assumptions: EVs

By 2050 4.3 TWh of VPP capacity could be added to the grid. 

Technical Potential CO2e Reduction

By 2050, the U.S. could reduce Carbon Dioxide emissions by 623 million metric tons

Achievable Co-Pollutant Emissions

• Co-pollutants affect national air quality.
• EPA NOx control: 85% from 1990 – achieved reduction from 35% to 33%.
• Acid Rain Program: 9 million tons SO2 cap in 2010 – max achieved 2 million.
• Solar power generation and electric vehicle operation: 0 direct emissions.
• PV / EV manufacturing and lacking end-of-life management: SOx, NOx, CH4, heavy metals. 

Avoided Co-Pollutant Emissions

Reduction of co-pollutants in relevant industries shows high impact CO comes from transportation (EV to ICE). 

Reduction of all co-pollutant emissions vs. business-as-usual, most significant for CO and NOx.

Health and Environmental Impact

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• Co-pollutants affect public health, ranging from allergy to cancer, especially for youth and low-income groups.
• Improved health outcomes translate to monetary value in avoided deaths and climate benefits. 

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Financial Costs & Savings

• Pre-subsidy capital costs:
• Rooftop solar installations priced at $10,000 - $20,000, depending on the size of the home according to Georgia Power. 
• Electric vehicle base cost of $27,000 - $80,000 depending on make/model with $500 - $2500 typical at-home charging setup.
• Cumulative change in government cash flow of -$220.18 per metric ton of avoided CO2-e by 2050.
• EPA social cost of emitted CO2 of $212 per ton in 2050.
• Costs and savings trend follow implementation plan: 15% EV and 25% Distributed Solar subsidies till 2032 and 2035, respectively.

Impact to Jobs and US GDP

• Projected to achieve ~11% of technically-feasible jobs by 2050.
• Significant workforce growth in manufacturing/construction outweighs loss in fossil fuel/utilities.
• Minimal net effect on GDP due to policy.

Vehicle-to-Grid: Financial Model

Considered 3.4% 2023 inflation, annual fee/maintenance

Source: "EV Charging Summit"​

Equity Impacts

• Electric Cooperatives and Municipalities are widespread across the U.S., overlapping with many lower income and disadvantaged communities (LIDAC)
• Some states do not have this overlap, such as California, which is primarily investor owned or a political subdivision
• The federal government has built a Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool to identify communities that experience burdens in 8 major categories ("Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool")
• Major Policy Benefits to LIDAC:
• Reduction in "Energy Burden" through lower cost energy
• Reduction in emissions, resulting in lower community health risk 
• Natural disaster mitigation and potential off-grid energy supply during emergencies 
• Workforce development through increasing demand for solar installations and EV production

Electric Retail Service Territories

Disadvantaged Communities

Source: "Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool"

Source: "Electric Retail Service Territories"

Conclusion

• The increased EV subsidy reduced CO2e by a maximum of ~17 million metric tons, compared to the Adjusted BAU
• The EV subsidy should consider being extended or increased further to have a higher impact, along with distributed solar policies 
• Technical Potential CO2 emissions reduction came from three sources: solar generation, EV replacing ICE vehicles, and reduction of fossil fuel peaker plant need through VPP. It is estimated that by 2030, 142.53 million metric tons of CO2 would be reduced a year; by 2040, 353.83 million metric tons of CO2 would be reduced a year; by 2050, 622.57 million metric tons of CO2 would be reduced a year.
• Implementing this policy would cost ~$220 per metric ton of avoided CO2-e cumulative (comparable to the social cost of emitted CO2) and could generate a total of 0.96 million jobs by 2050.
• Many cooperative and municipal electric retail service territories overlap with LIDAC regions across the U.S. Major equity impacts include reduction to energy burden, reduction in harmful emissions, natural disaster mitigation, back-up power supply, and workforce development.

Q&A

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