1 of 62

1

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

2 of 62

Credible Claims in Complexity

Subtitle

Name | Date

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

3 of 62

Menti results: Associations with

Regenerative Monitoring & Evaluation

3

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

4 of 62

Expectations

(as shared in Menti survey)

  • Gain new insights, perspectives, inspiration
  • Better understanding of and a broader perspective on MEL
  • Expanding knowledge and resources
  • Learn how to integrate (MEL) better and showcase impact, also in complex systems
  • Connect, exchange and share experiences
  • Be empowered to advocate for simple and effective MEL

4

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

5 of 62

Housekeeping

About our workshop today

  • Please keep muted unless asked to speak
  • Turn off your video if you do not want to be recorded
  • For tech issues contact Johannes H. via chat
  • Slides will be shared after the session
  • Input sessions will be recorded (breakouts won’t be)
  • Breakouts are optional - stay in plenary if you prefer
  • Use the chat for questions and ideas

5

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

6 of 62

Agenda

About our workshop today

  • Welcome
  • Input with short Q&A: Credible Claims in Complexity
  • Breakout exercises
  • Open discussion
  • Closing

6

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

7 of 62

Learning & Experience Design

Thriving Teams & Leaders

Regenerative Measurement & Evaluation

Leading change from the inside out

Creating the conditions

in your team and organisation �to thrive and have agency in a dynamic world.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

8 of 62

8

Unity Effect As…

Service Provider

Commissioned support for your specific needs. Typical engagement: day rates or project-based fees.

Resource Provider

Access our open source frameworks and tools, such as the Impact Garden and Capacity Compass.

Partner for Systemic Change

Co-create with us to deepen our impact together - from co-hosting events to applying for joint funding.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

9 of 62

9

By the Numbers (since 2021)

143

external projects delivered

4,800+ participants reached

1,100+

hours facilitated

53 organisational partners

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

10 of 62

10

Some of our Partners & Clients

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

11 of 62

Personal Background

  • Studies in sociology with focus on phenomenology and complexity science.
  • 15+ years engaged in civil society activities.
  • 12 years professional experience in MEL: Fairtrade International, FLOCERT & Unity Effect.
  • At Unity Effect: Co-founder, CEO & Lead of “Regenerative Measurement & Evaluation”.

11

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

12 of 62

Credible Claims

in Complexity -

core terms

12

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

13 of 62

Complexity

(with the Cynefin framework)

13

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

14 of 62

Claims

"A claim is a verifiable statement about the impacts, benefits, or qualities of an intervention, product, or system." (ISEAL Alliance)

Three types of claims:

14

Type

What it is

Example

Commitment Claim

An aspirational statement of purpose

Our project commits to improving primary education for girls in the region

Performance Claim

A factual, static snapshot of the system's status at a specific point in time (“What is”)

85% of girls are enrolled in primary school, but community trust in the school system is rated as 'Low'.

Improvement Claim

A contribution claim asserting that the intervention has resulted in a positive change over time.

Since the start of the intervention, girls' school enrollment has increased by 10%. This improvement can be linked to our work.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

15 of 62

Credible Claims in Complexity

Improvement claims that follow certain principles:

  • Contribution, not (isolated) attribution: Validating our role as a contributors to meaningful change.
  • Narrative coherence: Validating the meaning of changes through the lived experience of the people we work with.
  • Systems health as validity check: Validating the health of the system to sustain the impact.

15

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

16 of 62

The Impact Garden

16

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

17 of 62

Methodology

for Credible Claims

in Complexity

17

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

18 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims & Narratives

18

Frameworks & Evaluation Design

Methods & Analytical Approaches

3

Paradigm & Fundamental Principles

Credible Claims & Narratives

1

4

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

19 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims & Narratives

19

Frameworks & Evaluation Design

The structure / tool used to conceptualise the system and desired changes. It determines what is visible (and invisible) in an evaluation.

Methods & Analytical Approaches

The specific tools and indicators used to gather evidence. It ensures tracking the right signals, not just the easiest ones.

3

Paradigm & Fundamental Principles

The worldview and principles that guide the inquiry. It defines what we value and how we relate to the people we evaluate.

Credible Claims & Narratives

The synthesis of data into a defensible and factual narrative. It turns raw information into evidence and strategic insight.

1

4

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

20 of 62

Anchoring Gender & Justice

Taking a gender-transformative and justice-oriented approach. Or: A system that extracts from its most vulnerable parts is degenerative by design

  • Epistemic Justice (the foundation): Becoming aware of and shifting whose knowledge counts.
  • Monitoring & Evaluation to shift power: going beyond output indicators (e.g. counting participants) to measure structural shifts towards ownership.

20

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

21 of 62

How it connects to the global agenda

Bridging the Gap: From Global Ambition to Credible Evidence

  • OECD DAC Evaluation Criteria: Expanding the notion of Sustainability, Impact etc. through a system’s health lens
  • The 2030 Agenda (SDGs): Validating equity through a justice lens & operationalising “Leave No One Behind”
  • The Grand Bargain: Navigating and proving power shifts

21

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

22 of 62

Aligning with the Future of Funding

Providing the evidence base that allows funders to move from project-based approaches to flexible, systemic support.

  • Trust-Based Philanthropy: Verifying trust through vitality checks & measuring the health of relationships.
  • Unrestricted / Core Funding: Measuring “soil quality” and the contribution of core funding to systemic changes.
  • Systemic Investing / "Pando" Approach: Tracking synergies and feedback loops across a portfolio.

22

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

23 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims

23

Impact Garden Framework

An M&E framework that maps the entire ecosystem - from “soil” (resources) to “pollination” (relationships) - rendering the full scope of value visible.

Measuring Systemic Vitality & Contribution

Metrics that track the system's capacity to sustain itself - e.g. via feedback loops.

3

Regenerative Evaluation

A paradigm that approaches projects as living systems, focusing on monitoring and cultivating overall ecosystem health.

Credible Claims & Narratives

An evidence-backed narrative validating the specific contribution to systemic change, establishing rigor in complex environments.

1

4

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

24 of 62

The Methodology Briefs

24

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

25 of 62

The Methodology Briefs

25

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

26 of 62

Note on Methodological Coherence

26

Systemic Intent

Measurement Tools

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

27 of 62

Methodological Coherence

27

Frameworks & Evaluation Design

Methods & Analytical Approaches

3

Paradigm & Fundamental Principles

Credible Claims & Narratives

1

4

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

28 of 62

Methodological Coherence

28

Frameworks & Evaluation Design

Methods & Analytical Approaches

3

Paradigm & Fundamental Principles

Credible Claims & Narratives

1

4

2

Alignment

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

29 of 62

The Paradigm Shift:

Regenerative Evaluation

29

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

30 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims

30

Regenerative Evaluation

A paradigm that approaches projects as living systems, focusing on monitoring and cultivating overall ecosystem health.

1

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

31 of 62

Background

How can the process of monitoring create energy rather than extracting it?

  1. A global movement: Over the last 2 years, we have convened practitioners in our community of practice.
  2. A new set of principles: We have developed 9 core principles that prioritize systemic health over mechanistic control.
  3. The invitation: Launch of living paper in March 2026

31

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

32 of 62

Weaving together 3 strands of evaluation

32

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

33 of 62

The 9 Principles of Regenerative Evaluation

33

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

34 of 62

The Impact Garden

Framework

34

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

35 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims

35

Impact Garden Framework

An M&E framework that maps the entire ecosystem - from “soil” (resources) to “pollination” (relationships) - rendering the full scope of value visible.

Regenerative Evaluation

A paradigm that approaches projects as living systems, focusing on monitoring and cultivating overall ecosystem health.

1

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

36 of 62

The Impact Garden Framework

36

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

37 of 62

Feedback loops within the Impact Garden

37

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

38 of 62

The 7 systemic feedback loops

38

The Vitality Loop

Function (What it does)

1. Self-

Reflection

Awareness. The system looks at itself to identify needs and tensions.

2. Governance

Authority. The system makes decisions and changes its own rules.

3. Capacity

Talent. The system generates and transfers the skills it needs.

4. Resource

Nutrients. The system generates and manages material/financial resources.

5. Cohesion

Trust. The system resolves internal conflict and strengthens relationships.

6. Learning

Memory. The system captures lessons from the past to improve the future.

7. Bridging

Exchange. The system connects to external markets, governments, communities or networks.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

39 of 62

The Vitality Matrix

39

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

40 of 62

Key features of the Impact Garden

A framework to understand and measure the conditions for systemic change

  • 10 interconnected dimensions: Strategically including the soil (resources) and external conditions into the evaluation framework.
  • Living Systems Logic: understanding resource flow, growth pathways and feedback loops.
  • Field-tested: Used by 500+ practitioners, evaluated more than 1.5m EUR of funding

40

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

41 of 62

Measuring

Systemic Vitality

& Contribution

41

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

42 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims

42

Impact Garden Framework

An M&E framework that maps the entire ecosystem - from “soil” (resources) to “pollination” (relationships) - rendering the full scope of value visible.

Measuring Systemic Vitality & Contribution

Metrics that track the system's capacity to sustain itself - e.g. via feedback loops.

3

Regenerative Evaluation

A paradigm that approaches projects as living systems, focusing on monitoring and cultivating overall ecosystem health.

1

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

43 of 62

Feedback loops within the Impact Garden

43

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

44 of 62

Making Credible Claims

in Complexity

44

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

45 of 62

The four dimensions of Credible Claims

45

Impact Garden Framework

An M&E framework that maps the entire ecosystem - from “soil” (resources) to “pollination” (relationships) - rendering the full scope of value visible.

Measuring Systemic Vitality & Contribution

Metrics that track the system's capacity to sustain itself - e.g. via feedback loops.

3

Regenerative Evaluation

A paradigm that approaches projects as living systems, focusing on monitoring and cultivating overall ecosystem health.

Credible Claims & Narratives

An evidence-backed narrative validating the specific contribution to systemic change, establishing rigor in complex environments.

1

4

2

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

46 of 62

Weaving all dimensions together

46

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

47 of 62

Weaving all dimensions together

The Narrative:

"The project contributed to a 10% increase in girls' enrollment. This is a significant improvement when benchmarked against the national trend of stagnation (space) and moves the region closer to the universal primary education standard (standard)."

47

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

48 of 62

Weaving all dimensions together

The Narrative:

"The project contributed to a 10% increase in girls' enrollment. This is a significant improvement when benchmarked against the national trend of stagnation (space) and moves the region closer to the universal primary education standard (standard)."

This increase was driven by a measured shift in the community's mindset regarding education and has established a reinforcing capacity loop: the first cohort of empowered parents (outcome) has formed an independent education committee (new resource).

48

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

49 of 62

Weaving all dimensions together

The Narrative:

"The project contributed to a 10% increase in girls' enrollment. This is a significant improvement when benchmarked against the national trend of stagnation (space) and moves the region closer to the universal primary education standard (standard)."

This increase was driven by a measured shift in the community's mindset regarding education and has established a reinforcing capacity loop: the first cohort of empowered parents (outcome) has formed an independent education committee (new resource).

Crucially, the power dynamics have shifted. Decisions are no longer made by project staff, but are now fully driven by the mothers themselves. This transition to local leadership ensures that the process is both effective, fair and self-sustaining, meaning these gains are likely to persist long after our funding ends."

49

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

50 of 62

Clarification Questions

50

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

51 of 62

Living Case Example

How to apply the Impact Garden framework

51

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

52 of 62

Intro: the context of emp:our now

52

January 25, 2022: SEND e.V. secures EUR 1.6 million from Google.org’s Social Innovation Fund

Purpose: Strengthen Germany’s social entrepreneurship ecosystem and empower underserved communities

Dual Focus:

  • Direct support for (potential) founders and social entrepreneurs
  • Engage wider support systems and public institutions

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

53 of 62

Taking a regenerative approach

53

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

54 of 62

54

Intention of evaluation & report

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

55 of 62

55

Intention of evaluation & report

Reflect on experiences, lessons, and impact

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

56 of 62

56

Intention of evaluation & report

Reflect on experiences, lessons, and impact

Address sector challenges for true inclusion

Map future pathways for underserved communities

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

57 of 62

57

Intention of evaluation & report

Reflect on experiences, lessons, and impact

Address sector challenges for true inclusion

Map future pathways for underserved communities

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

58 of 62

For funders and philanthropy

Investing into systemic change

Money to the people

Regenerative and participatory evaluation

58

1

2

3

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

59 of 62

Invitations

59

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

60 of 62

Regenerative Signal

60

Gain the skills to make credible claims with methodological integrity.

Regenerative Signal includes:

  • live sessions
  • learning community
  • frameworks and practical tools

…to embed regenerative practices into your organisational DNA.

Join our 6-month online learning journey.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

61 of 62

Implementing (parts of) the methodology

61

Work with Unity Effect to implement the methodology into your evaluation practices and strategy.

We can support you with:

  • a specific project
  • across your portfolio
  • your organisation’s evaluation strategy

Book a free exploratory conversation with us.

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net

62 of 62

Thank you

for your presence and participation

Unity Effect Connect UG (haftungsbeschränkt) - info@unityeffect.net - 0049 151 1002 7910 - www.unityeffect.net Thomas-Mann-Straße 36 - 53111 Bonn - Sitz Bonn, Deutschland - Amtsgerichts Bonn HRB 24848 Ust.-IdNr: DE 326729306 - Volksbank Köln Bonn eG - IBAN DE16380601864905190011 - BIC GENODED1BRS Geschäftsführung: Emily Johnston, Franziska Kohn

Jannik Kaiser

Co-founder & CEO, Unity Effect &

Co-Lead Regenerative Measurement and Evaluation

jannik@unityeffect.net

Erinda Panen Godesberg

Core Team Member, Unity Effect

Climate Change and Biodiversity Expert

erinda@unityeffect.net

62

Unity Effect

unityeffect.net