Daily Market Journal

Date:

12.06.2024 Wednesday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Reclaim 67K and chop: Orange path: We reclaim the 67K Pivot and start to go sideways above it before the CPI data release and the Powell Press conference. (Most neutral approach of the news/data event) “
• We haven’t seen a big frontrunning of the events today, we went into them quite neutral, but holding above 67K which was a strong sign

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• AKT touched into the 200MAs and went lower. Currently price is at support on the chart

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• We saw a strong impulsive breakout on S&P and NDQ, now it just needs to hold if bulls can stay in control

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• Data wise we saw quite a mixed day. Bullish CPI data but hawkish (bearish) Powell at the conference

BTC

• What did Price do today?
• Price reclaimed 67K yesterday, tested it today again and held
• Price compressed into the red H1 bands and started to move up towards the CPI release
• On the CPI release price catapulted to 69K in a couple minutes
• Price then tried to push higher than 70K but rejected
• Hawkish FOMC brought price lower
• Price impulsed through 69K and closed below a hourly candle
• Price is currently selling off and retracing the CPI move

Key Levels (Current BTC Price =68894.7)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 72061.7 (SEC ETH ETF news pump highs)
• 72144.0 (fridays highs)
• DOWN:
• 66311.1 (ETH ETF flash algo wick low)
• 66700.5 (test into 67K Pivot, big liquidity area)

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• HTF Opens
• 69667.1 (Weekly Open) wicked into it today, currently below = redweek = bears in control
• 67577.9 (Monthly Open) we are currently above = bulls in control
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close, Pivot)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB Daily 1)
• 60950 - 63099.6 (Bullish OB Daily 2)

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• Key POC levels
• 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily 1)
• 61616.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily 2)

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• Pivots
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) (my HTF bull-bear line currently)
• 67200 (Pivot level) price reclaimed it yesterday, acted bullishly
• 69198.7 (2021 ATH + Pivot SR) price went above it, currently rejected back below
• 70K (round number Pivot) wicked into it but rejected right away
• 71363.0 (Key ATH resistance Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

Volume Profile on the Daily chart

I drew the Volume Profile from the ATH to the bottom at 56500

We can also see here, that 69-70K is a very key level, that is the upper end of the value area of the Volume Profile

Above 69300 we can see that there has been some volume distributed between 69K - 71386 (which is a key ATH pivot and the highest monthly close too)

So for me its very easy:

• below 70K, probably bit more consolidation needed, chop
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• Above 71386 we can easily move quickly to ATH and beyond. If we clear that level we cleared the last major resistance before ATH.

We rejected off resistance again, back in the Value Area. Probably more chop to come, or also a test of the lower side of the Value Area and Support below. Or a move out of the value to the upside would bring us back again into the possibility of breaking out.

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• Since before the CPI pump OI went up 3.11% (608mil of positions), and price is up 2.62% currently
• We saw quite some long liquidations on the recent quick selloff, tells me there are quite some late longs in the market
• Funding at neutral
• Spot premium totally present on Bybit, On Binance its at 0

Data not telling that much. Some positions opened in anticipation of todays events. The bigger concerning thing is the overall excess OI in this range we’re in.

• Liquidation heatmap:
• Some layers below price, into which price could easily unwind in
• Big layers at 72K, if there is a catalyst price could easily attack them

BTC possible paths

1. Lower: Red path: We lose the Monthly Open, have a weak bounce, we lose 67K and trend lower. 65K may be an interim support level, below that its the 60-62K area price could visit.

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• Chop: Orange path: We lose key levels (Monthly Open and 67K) but we chop around. These low volatility chops which happen right before price just rolls over and falls down.

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• Squeeze/chop people up: Green path: Price squeezes higher after a lot of people might have shorted the FOMC meeting. We might hold the key levels and have a strong squeeze towards 70K.

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• ALTs outperforming BTC quite a lot
• ETH still weaker but not by much
• These pumps on alts might have been good exit liquidity for smart money or trapped longs
• BTC D small red day

USDT Margin Borrow Interest Rate = (Leverage in the system)

Going lower. Shows positions closing, less demand for borrowing money (using leverage)

BTC and ETH Open Interest

We can see the exchanges and the open OI on them. This can give us an insight of positions opening or closing, and the presence or absence of demand towards the two majors.

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BTC OI

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ALL OI: 36.86B

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ETH OI

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ALL OI: 15.82B

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All OI

ETH/BTC ratio:

42.9%

Todays changes:

• 750mil increase in total OI
• OI quite evenly distributed between exchanges. Top exchanges all added around 100-170mil of OI

Todays changes:

• 90mil increase in total OI
• Binance OI decreased by 100mil
• Bitget & CME 100-100mil increase in OI

Stocks, Macro

• Gold holding the 200EMA on the 8H. In the formation of a low. We just need to leave it for a bit and see if it can build a base here.

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• Dollar big rejection, back below 105. As we said yesterday this is now either the perfect place for a higher low to form if bullish, or a place from where we go to new lows if bearish.

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• S&P and NDQ strong impulses away. Nice to see. Now this breakout should hold if bulls are in control. If price retraces these moves it has the danger of falling over and losing momentum.

Todays CPI data release

CPI came in lower than expected, which resulted in a bullish reaction by the market.

FED rate stayed the same 5.5%, no change in that

FOMC Meeting

Powell had a hawkish

(bearish) tone today.

He said that further data

of dropping inflation is needed

or weak job data. And that

they will cut once they see

these happening. So no

talk about 100% cuts, or

cuts next month etc.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• ONDO had also a nice push today
• This could actually be a lower high that just formed so be aware of that
• But if todays daily candle holds up strong, we will have made a positive reversal on both the Daily and 2 Day RSI.
• Positive reversals in uptrends are very reliable on higher timeframe and offer a good invalidation too.
• If price closes below 1.2 we can see the positive reversal invalidated and probably lower prices to come
• On the charts we can see the Daily chart + RSI and pos. rev on the left chart, and the same on the 2 Day TF on the right chart

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• Market looks interesting as always
• Now we saw the data came out which was quite a mixed bag
• I would say as there is no catalyst from the FED for bullish market conditions, we might just fall over and take out all the OI that has been building up all the way along
• This actually sets up well. CPI came in lower (good for cuts), but Powell wasn’t bullish.
• So this could mean market lower, but the fact that we got a decent inflation print stays.
• So we might take out excess positions, get even better inflation data the next months and cuts coming and market getting a catalyst

Further notes about the market - if any

I think we could get the summer low volatility following today

Maybe not for so long, but I would think we consolidate for a bit more

The longer the better actually. Especially if they start to fuel the economy getting close to the election

We might get a strong catalyst, and the market could go on an other big leg up

The patient will get rewarded here imo