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Upcoming event schedule

ACSC - June 4 or 5

THB that France and the UK should extend their nuclear umbrella to encompass all European NATO members.
Brice, Philippe, Mickael, Bernard-Pierre

3rd Transatlantic Dialogue (Ecole de Guerre) - late June

How can Western democracies effectively counter misinformation and disinformation without putting democratic institutions and values at risk?
Officers will continue working with their Transatlantic Dialogue mentees

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SHORT TERM:

US politics since 2000

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Exploiting the flaws in the system

Benign-sounding election laws and administrative decisions often come with hidden motives that enable states to de facto disenfranchise voters

This used to be much harder to do thanks to the Voting Rights Act of 1965, but the relevant portions of that act were gutted in 2013 by the Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County v. Holder
States can, for example, pass legislation that, in practice, makes it much more difficult for certain demographics to vote

In 2015, Alabama passed legislation which made presenting�a driver’s license necessary to vote… and then closed most of�the state’s DMVs in majority-African American counties

They can also purge the voter rolls in ways that subtly favor or�disfavor certain groups, relocate or close polling places, or change�polling places’ hours of operation, or restrict voting early/by mail
…or, as the system really breaks down, selectively enforce anti-voter�bribery laws; it’s illegal to give a voter waiting in a line outside a�water bottle but not for Elon Musk to offer them millions of dollars

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Exploiting the flaws in the system

Further skewing the system is gerrymandering

This is manipulating the borders of electoral constituencies to favor or disfavor a particular party
It is made possible by the US’s use of single-member constituencies and first-past-the-post elections

Two main types:

Cracking a group of opposing voters into several districts where they’re outnumbered by your voters
Packing opposing voters into one district when they ought to get more

Both parties do this, but the GOP does it better

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“It’s the economy, stupid”

For average Americans, the economy seemingly keeps getting worse, even as the US - on the whole - does well

Since the 1980s, income has decoupled from wages, productivity, and inflation, economic mobility has fallen, and income inequality has skyrocketed
Nearly 40% of Americans would not be able to comfortably pay an unexpected $400 emergency expense as of 2022, and as of 2024 30% of Americans spent 90% of their income on base necessities

This steadily increases public desperation, which increases the loss of faith in public institutions, which, in turn, pushes people to the political fringes

This happens both when incumbents attempt to run on the economy doing well (because they don’t see that growth), and when the economy does poorly for everyone (because they can’t bear the blow)

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Public opinion: to shape,�or to chase?

The Republican Party focuses on shaping public opinion

They do this by exploiting media fragmentation in collaboration with a network of right-wing outlets across a variety of mediums
…and through the fundraising & lobbying opportunities created by 2010’s Citizens United v. FEC

But the situation has slipped out of the control of the party brass

The party elite needs to keep pace with new media outlets and personalities even further right to retain this influence over its voters

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Public opinion: to shape, or to chase?

The Democrats, by contrast, focus on chasing public opinion

Cognizant of the lessons they learned in the 1960s-1990s, the Democrats are terrified of being dismissed as extreme by the “median voter”
Accordingly, they will slight their own base to win over median voters and centrist Republicans… who regard them as extremists anyways because right-wing outlets say they are
This also creates what might be called “the New Coke problem”

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Brinkmanship vs. bipartisanship

As the GOP base slips further and further right, GOP leadership finds itself in a position of needing to enforce stringent ideological purity

Republicans who become known as “RINOs” are punished by the base during party primaries
The Tea Party movement is a turning point in this regard

This strongly incentivizes political brinkmanship

During the Clinton, Obama, and Biden presidencies, the GOP practices relentless political brinkmanship, refusing to approve nominees and obstructing budgets & legislation as much as possible

The Democrats regard themselves as the party of playing by the rules, of bipartisanship and compromise, and so usually refuse to engage in similar brinkmanship

This is summarized in Michelle Obama’s 2016 proclamation that “when they go low, we go high”
There is a belief within Dem leadership that voters will reward them for this behavior - but this is yet to happen
And it allows the GOP to win victories by playing dirty
This is beginning to change - but only just

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Democrats fall in love,�Republicans fall in line

A truism of contemporary American politics, typically�attributed to Bill Clinton
In essence:

Faced with a candidate for their party who they dislike, Republicans will grit their teeth and vote for them
Faced with a candidate for their party who they dislike, Democrats will stay home

There have been exceptions to the rule from time to time - notably, the COVID-19 pandemic was a sufficiently large crisis that people fell in line behind Joe Biden when they might not have otherwise - but the statement still works often enough to be useful

This amplifies both the Republican Party’s rightward spiral - center-rightist Republicans still fall in line for Trump, no matter how extreme he gets! - and the Democratic Party’s New Coke problem - Dem candidates pivot to center, so Dem voters stay home, so Dem candidates try harder to pivot to the center, so even more Dem voters stay home…

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Truthiness and doublethink

“Doublethink”, of course, is George Orwell; “truthiness” is Stephen Colbert

Both relate to the idea of being willing and able to believe whatever one feels is true or convenient based on the circumstances at the moment

A willingness to ignore reality and change opinions on a whim creates�an atmosphere where the only thing that matters is winning

The left wing is not immune to these tendencies, to be clear, but in the�contemporary US this is more visible on the right wing

The combination of the right-wing media ecosystem becoming a�cyclical driver of radicalization and the GOP’s emphasis on�brinkmanship as proof of ideological loyalty creates a preoccupation�with “owning the libs” at any cost

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“Flooding the zone”

Or, using more technical terms, “distributed amplification”; intentionally saying and doing as many things as possible with the goal of overwhelming anything and everything else
Trump has used this to his advantage in two main ways:

On the campaign trail: Trump says so many things, ranging from inane to insane, that a portion of the public convinces itself that Trump will only do the things that they want him to do, or secretly means exactly what they want to think he means (even against all evidence to the contrary)
In office: Trump and his allies do so many things that it is functionally impossible to keep up with or respond to all of them, making it difficult for his opponents to effectively respond to any of them before he’s done a dozen other horrific or outrageous or insane things

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The breakdown of checks & balances

The US Constitution largely assumes that people will act in good faith, and that those who don’t will be punished by voters; accordingly it has few provisions for what to do if those things don’t happen

Even if Trump had been convicted in one of the four criminal cases against him last year, he would still have been able to run for president!

What defense mechanisms exist depend upon the legislature and the judiciary standing up to the executive, and the executive listening to them

They don’t work if, say, congressional Republicans are slavishly loyal to Trump out of ideological agreement or fear of angering their voters, congressional Dems are utterly rudderless and in disarray, 2010-2016 GOP obstructionism means the courts are full of appointees picked for ideological loyalty, and the executive justs ignores Congress and the courts if they intervene
Additionally, things like Elon Musk’s purges of the federal bureaucracy through DOGE, Hegseth’s firing of top military leaders, and Trump deliberately provoking resignations through flagrantly unethical action (i.e. the Eric Adams deal) allow them to purge the executive

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The idea of American exceptionalism

The belief that America is, in some way, distinctive or exemplary as a country when compared to others

In a mild form, it is simply the belief that the United States is uniquely fortunate or exemplary due to some combination of its history, geography, values, or people
In a more intense form, it is the belief that America holds a unique position of moral leadership on account of its political, economic, and religious values
In its most extreme form, it is the belief that God Himself chose the US to be the epitome of republican and Christian values, and that it is the US’s responsibility to lead the world to these things - whether they want it or not

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