Daily Market Journal

Date:

19.05.2024 Sunday

Yesterdays paths, projections

• “Sweep and more consolidation: Blue path: We sweep yesterdays highs but reject off it: more consolidation needed, if bullish we might get a valid breakout early next week. “
• We saw this path so far play out to a T, took out todays highs and fell back

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• Mentioned yesterday that alts formed a distribution top on the 1H with 3 pushes; we saw them sell off today and be really weak

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BTC

• What did Price do today?
• We took out yesterdays highs with a sweep, and fell back to the 50EMA H1
• The 50EMA acted as trend support previously and price was able to make a new high off it. Will it act also strong now?
• Price is trying currently to lose the 50EMA on the H1, and with that also the level of 66721.2 (the bearish OB POC we were talking about all week)
• If price was able to hold the 50EMA, and hold up in this tight consolidation, we might see a breakout early next week
• If we fall back now, we probably revisit 65K, and form a bigger range 65-67K

Key Levels (Current BTC Price = 66728.4)

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• Liquidity levels (stops resting):
• UP:
• 67198.9 (22th April highs) Had a couple 1H candle closes above but rejected again
• 67443.8 (yesterday's highs) Sweeped today and rejected
• DOWN:
• 64580.4 (thursdays lows)

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• HTF Opens
• 60651.2 (Monthly Open)
• 71363.0 (Highest monthly close)

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• OB levels
• 56958.0 - 59637.3 (Bullish OB Daily)
• 65750.0 - 67158.9 (Bearish OB Daily) currently inside it
• 69592.6 - 71387.4 (Bearish OB Daily)

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• Key POC levels
• 59022.2 (POC of Bullish OB Daily)
• 66721.2 (POC of Bearish OB Daily) closed yesterday above, now holding as support
• 70235.8 (POC of Bearish OB Daily)

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• Pivots
• 64986.1 (2021 Aprils High Pivot) (my bull-bear line currently)
• 58472.1 (2021 Febs High Pivot)

Different exchange prices may differ . The below shown prices are form the Binance and Bybit Perps USDT chart

BTC DATA

• OI, Funding, Spot premium:
• We can see OI increasing over the weekend, as price is mostly sideways
• This generally could lead to a whipsaw move, where price takes out the positions piled up over the weekend
• Currently we are going down, and OI is still increasing with Future CVDs showing selling pressure
• Generally could mean shorts are getting in, and together with the confluence of the Liquidation heatmap this idea becomes even more supported
• Spot premium still consistently present

• Liquidation heatmap:
• We can see a lot of short layers piling in above
• Zoomed in 66500 has a long liquidation level, which lines up together with yesterdays lows

BTC possible paths

1. Sweep the lows, then moon: Blue path: We sweep any piled up longs from the weekend at 66500, we reclaim the 50EMA H1 quick, and we grind up and break out with an impulsive move

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• 50EMA H1 support + breakout: Green path: We hold the 50EMA now, and dont lose it, and we start a breakout process. Either a new false breakout but holding up strong or a valid impulsive one.

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• We lose 66500, bears in control: Red path: We take out yesterdays lows, but we cant reclaim. We fall below, retest 66500 bearishly, and we trend lower towards 65K

Alts, BTC D

• Alts relation to BTC:
• After yesterdays distribution top on alts, we saw them really weaken off today
• BTC held up amazingly, and alts fell back, showing no strength behind them
• This is very good, definitely better than if alts would have overperformed BTC over the weekend
• This might indicate, that IF we get BTC strength and a breakout, it will stick for now and go higher
• BTC D also not a chart that I would fade. Strong. Probably more BTC strength to come.

Stocks, Macro

• Weekend, markets closed.

Other coins, honorable mentions

• APU testing the 78-80 area the 3rd time in a row.
• We can see lowering volume on these pushes. This isnt bearish nor bullish, but means that neither side is aggressively trying to push price. So that also means that its a key turning point, which side will grab the power to themselves and either push price below 80, or support price and push it towards the highs.
• This doesnt strike as strength, but its support nonetheless.
• Losing that level would indicate to me that the interim trend support is lost, and the bulls lost the battle in trying to keep price up
• We could also hold this area, and flip to the right side of the V in the current LTF structure. For that we would need higher highs and higher lows.

Market conclusion / sentiment / future outlooks

• Market looking good. Still.
• Sentiment 50/50. Influencers mostly posting bullish propaganda, some people convinced and agree, some fade it more.
• A lot of people de-risked at the lows, and got crushed with their bags and just gave up on them. They now dont know what to do. Get back? Or wait and it will go back to the lows?
• As there is still not a clear direction (meaning we are in the middle, and people still have the previous bearish weeks in their minds), probably people are hesitant to get back in
• Once they think the direction becomes clear (at the top), they FOMO in. That moment hasn't came yet, so from this perspective we could still see upside.

Further notes about the market - if any

• There are no certainties in the market.
• You shouldnt think you know what will happen. Because you dont.
• You can have guesses, and assign probabilities to them. Thats what a trader does.
• And if your guesses are based on a systematic approach with historical data, thats called a systematic trader.