1 of 16

Early findings of a meta-analysis on the effectiveness of cell phone law

Allegra Ayala & Yi-Ching Lee

George Mason University

aayala21@gmu.edu

ylee65@gmu.edu

2 of 16

Introduction

  • NHTSA reports that distracted driving accounted for 8.1% of motor vehicle fatalities in 2020 (Stewart, 2022)
  • 2.8% of drivers nationwide were observed using their cell phone at stop lights in 2020 (National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 2021)
  • Typing and reading text messages decreased driver reaction time, ability to detect stimuli, and ability to maintain a consistent speed, lane position, and headway (Caird et al. 2014)
  • As of August 2023, all states but MT have texting bans and 28 states have handheld bans (IIHS, 2024)

Early findings…

2

3 of 16

Conceptualizing Effectiveness

  • Methods for examining effectiveness differ
    • Observational Data (McCartt & Geary, 2004)
    • Self-Report (Qiao & Bell, 2016)
    • Police Citations (Rudisill & Zhu, 2016)
    • Crashes & Fatalities (Dong et al., 2017; Nikolaev et al., 2010)
    • Hospital Visits & Collision Insurance Claims (Ferdinand et al. 2019, “Texting Laws…”, 2010)

Early findings…

3

4 of 16

Conceptualizing Effectiveness

  • These methods can be categorized into two different groups
    • Observed or “Actual”
      • Observational
      • Self-Report
    • Reported or “Got Caught”
      • Citations
      • Crashes
      • Fatalities
      • Hospital Data
      • Insurance Claims

Early findings…

4

5 of 16

Moderators

  • State
    • Differences in enforcement and education of drivers (McCartt et al., 2010)
    • Variations in how laws are written, allocation of resources, lack of educational campaigns, differences in judges, public relations concerns may impact enforcement (Rudisill et al., 2019)
  • Type of Ban
    • Not all states have complete bans (IIHS & HLDI, 2021)
    • Handheld bans: prohibits picking up and holding a phone to one’s ear (McCartt & Geary, 2004)
    • Total bans: prohibit all use of mobile phones for any purpose (Foss et al., 2009)
  • Considered Moderators:
    • Age Groups (Teen Bans)
    • Time

Early findings…

5

6 of 16

Hypotheses & Research Question

  • H1: Implementing cell phone bans for drivers decreases use.
  • State
    • RQ: What is the moderating effect of state on compliance?
  • Type of Ban
    • H2: Handheld bans will result in higher rates of phone use than total bans.

Early findings…

6

7 of 16

Coding & Analytical Strategy

  • Coding in Excel
    • Type of study
    • State
    • Odds ratio
    • Variance of the log odds ratio
    • Confidence intervals (95%)
    • Types of Bans
      • Handheld
      • Total
    • Effect Sizes
      • Pre-law and post-law data
      • States w/ bans vs w/out

Early findings…

7

8 of 16

PRISMA Flowchart

9 of 16

Studies Included

10 of 16

Results - Main Effects

  • 15 effect sizes (N = 283, 730)
  • Estimate of the log odds ratio was -0.267 (p = 0.013, 95% CI = [-0.477, -0.056])

Early findings…

10

11 of 16

Results - Main Effects

  • Significant heterogeneity across studies, Q = 299.238, p < 0.001; I2 = 96.69%
  • Funnel plot suggests publication bias could be an issue, but could also be due to low number of effect sizes (Sterne et al., 2011)

Early findings…

11

12 of 16

Results - Moderators

  • State
    • NY, NC, CT, DC
    • North Carolina displayed significantly more non-compliance than the country-wide group (p = 0.022, 95% CI = [0.093, 1.223])
    • The three remaining states did not display a significant difference when compared to the reference category
      • New York (p = 0.225, 95% CI = [-0.208,0.882])
      • Connecticut (p = 0.981, 95% CI = [-0.837, 0.817])
      • D.C. (p = 0.944, 95% CI = [-0.559, 0.520])

Early findings…

12

13 of 16

Results - Moderators

  • Type of Ban
    • It was predicted that total bans would results in less phone use than handheld bans
    • Studies with total bans displayed a higher rate of phone use than studies with only handheld bans (p = 0.047, 95% CI = [0.005, 0.835])

Early findings…

13

14 of 16

Discussion

  • The relationship between cell phone use and bans was significant
    • This evidence would suggest that bans are effective even if the initial rates of compliance achieved are not maintained
  • North Carolina showed higher rates of phone use after ban implementation
  • New York, Connecticut, and D.C. showed no significant differences
  • Total bans less compliance than handheld
    • Education, enforcement, state differences etc.
  • Low number of studies could account for the funnel plot dispersion (Sterne et al., 2011)

Early findings…

14

15 of 16

Future Research

  • Differences between states
  • Education and enforcement differences
  • Young driver bans
  • Time Span

Early findings…

15

16 of 16

Thank you!

Allegra Ayala – aayala21@gmu.edu

Yi-Ching Lee – ylee65@gmu.edu