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Using Experiments in Economics

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Roman Sheremeta, Ph.D.

Professor, Weatherhead School of Management

Case Western Reserve University

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What is economics?�

  • Economics: the study of choices that economic agents make as they cope with scarcity and the incentives that influence those choices

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What is behavioral economics?�

  • Behavioral economics: the study of choices actually made by economic agents and the corresponding psychological insights leading to such choices

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Methods of economic research�

  • Methods of economic research:
    1. Theoretical method
    2. Econometric/statistical method
    3. Experimental method

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  • Experimental method:
    • Hypothesis
    • Experimental design (randomization, treatments, procedures, laboratory or field)
    • Data analysis (non-parametric tests, regressions)

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Using Experiments in Economics

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Correlation versus causation�

  • If you find X and Y are correlated, what can you conclude?
    • Correlation does not imply causation!

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  • Example 1: Eating breakfast is correlated with success in school for elementary school children
    • Hypothesis 1: Eating breakfast improves cognition
    • Hypothesis 2: Not having breakfast is an indication that a kid comes from a bad family: less educated parents, worse socio-economic status, less focus on school at home, lower expectations, etc.

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  • Example 2: For each year of education, a person in the United States earns approximately $4,000 more per year
    • Hypothesis 1: Education leads to higher earnings
    • Hypothesis 2: Smarter people choose to go to university, and smarter people will be able to find better jobs

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Inferring causality�

  • What are the common problems when inferring causality?
    • Measurement error
    • Omitted variables (Example: ice cream versus drowning)
    • Simultaneity (more police → less crime, more crime → more police)
    • Selection (individuals are not assigned randomly into treatments)

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  • How to infer causality?
    • Multiple regression analysis (trying to control for all relevant factors)
    • Instrumental variables (trying to find an “instrument”)
    • Regression discontinuity
    • Differences-in-differences
    • Selection model (Heckman two-stage procedure)
    • Controlled experiment with random assignment is the Golden Standard

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Controlled economic experiments�

  • Economists who have contributed to developing experimental methodology:
    • Vernon Smith (Nobel Prize in Economics 2002)
    • Richard Thaler (Nobel Prize in Economics 2017)
    • John List (Nobel Prize in Economics 20??)

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Experimental economics�

  • Experimental method: Learning from observing behavior in an environment created or modified by the researcher for that very purpose

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  • Why do we use experiments in economics (Smith 1994):
    • To test economic theories (e.g., weed out bad theories)
    • To uncover behavioral regularities (e.g., other-regarding preferences, loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting)
    • To guide new theories (e.g., prospect theory)
    • To evaluate policy proposals (e.g., schooling curricula, microfinancing, emissions trading)
    • To design markets (e.g., matching markets for medical doctors, British spectrum auctions, markets for electric power)

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Principles of economic experiments�

  • Main principles (Hertwig and Ortmann 2001):
    1. Random assignment.
    2. Rules are known to the subjects.
    3. Repeated trials.
    4. Financial incentives.
    5. No deception.

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Example: cooperation and punishment�

  • Fehr and Gachter (2000) conducted a laboratory experiment by randomly assigning subjects (students) to either the “no punishment“ or the “punishment“ condition.
    • In the no-punishment condition: subjects were split into groups of four and each subject had to decide how many of their 20 “points” to contribute to the “common good.” Contributing 1 point yielded 0.4 point to each member of the group.
    • In the punishment condition: subjects also contributed to the “common good,” but after they observed partners’ contributions, they could punish them (costly) for not contributing.

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  • Main research question:
    • Does the opportunity for costly punishment increase cooperation?

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Example: cooperation and punishment�

  • 1. Random assignment.
    • Subjects were randomly assigned to different conditions/treatments.

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  • 2. Rules are known to the subjects.
    • Subjects knew the rules of the game.

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  • 3. Repeated trials.
    • Each condition/treatment lasted for 10 periods.

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  • 4. Financial incentives.
    • Experimental “points” were converted to cash.

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  • 5. No deception.
    • There was no deception in the experiment.

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Example: cooperation and punishment�

  • Results of the experiment by Fehr and Gachter (2000):
    • The opportunity for costly punishment increases cooperation.

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  • What can we make of these results?
    • All studies are judged by at least two criteria: internal validity and external validity.

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Internal validity�

  • Internal validity: the criterion that a researcher’s conclusions about what happened in the study are well-grounded.
    1. There is a statistical basis for conclusion.
    2. There are no alternative explanations.

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  • The study of Fehr and Gachter (2000) claiming that punishment increases cooperation is internally valid because:
    • There is a statistical basis for concluding that there is a positive relationship between opportunities for punishment and cooperation.
    • There are no alternative explanations other than the causal one.

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External validity�

  • External validity: The criterion that a study's conclusions be relevant for other situations.
    1. The sample being studied is similar to the rest of the population.
    2. The situation created in the experiment is not different from a typical relevant situation (“ecological validity”).
    3. Subjects do not know that they are being studied (“demand effect”).

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  • The study of Fehr and Gachter (2000) claiming that punishment increases cooperation has weak external validity because:
    • Students do not represent all people.
    • The situation is an imperfect representation of real institutions.
    • There could be a demand effect to punish.

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Internal versus external validity�

  • There is a tradeoff between internal and external validity:
    • Experiments have high internal validity since they strip away aspects of the environment that might lead to alternative explanations.
    • But precisely because experiments strip away much of the richness of a real-life situation, experiments may have lower external validity.

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  • One solution to the problem of external validity is field experiments (List 2011).

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Example: recognition and giving�

  • Samek and Sheremeta (2017) conducted a field experiment by randomly assigning 205 parents who came to pick up their children to four conditions:
    • No recognition: all individuals could donate to the Red Cross and donation amounts were publicly displayed
    • Full recognition: all individuals’ names publicly displayed next to their donations
    • Positive recognition: the names of the highest two givers publicly displayed next to their donations
    • Negative recognition: the names of the lowest two givers (or non-givers) publicly displayed

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  • Main research question:
    • What kind of recognition is more effective at increasing giving?

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Example: recognition and giving�

  • Results of the experiment by Samek and Sheremeta (2017):
    • All forms of recognition examined increase giving relative to the baseline treatment, and recognizing only the highest or only the lowest donors has the strongest and most significant effect.

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Laboratory versus field experiments�

  • Laboratory experiment: an experiment conducted at a facility specifically designed for that purpose.

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  • Field experiment: An experiment conducted within the setting of subjects’ everyday lives, possibly without their knowledge.

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  • Lab and field experiments tend to have different advantages:
    • Which has greater internal validity?
    • Which is easier to replicate?
    • Which has greater external validity?

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References�

  • Fehr, E., & Gachter, S. (2000). Cooperation and punishment in public goods experiments. American Economic Review, 90, 980-994.
  • Hertwig, R., & Ortmann, A. (2001) Experimental practices in economics: A methodological challenge for psychologists? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 24, 383-451.
  • List, J.A. (2011). Why economists should conduct field experiments and 14 tips for pulling one off. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25, 3-16.
  • Samek, A., & Sheremeta, R. M. (2017). Selective recognition: How to recognize donors to increase charitable giving. Economic Inquiry, 55, 1489-1496.
  • Smith, V.L. (1994). Economics in the laboratory. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8, 113-131.

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