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Agent-based modeling for social

psychological theory building

Jiin Jung, PhD

Department of Psychology

Lehigh University

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Jung, Miller, & Page (2025) American Psychologist

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STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 5: GENERATING

CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 4: SIMULATING

MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

MINIMAL SOCIETY PARADIGM

Principle-oriented modeling

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted) American Psychologist

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STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 5: GENERATING

CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING MINIMAL ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 4: SIMULATING

MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

MINIMAL SOCIETY PARADIGM

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STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 5: GENERATING

CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING MINIMAL ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 4: SIMULATING

MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

MINIMAL SOCIETY PARADIGM

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https://tinyurl.com/abm2025spsp

Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

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Download netlogo

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Agent-based modeling (ABM)

a computational methodology for analysing the actions and interactions of individuals that generates system-level patterns

Axtell (2000); Page & Miller (2009)

generative causation

While you are installing it, let me explain some concepts of ABM.
ABM is one of the widely methods to study complex systems–ecology, economics, physics, and more.
Within psychology, cultural and evolutionary psychologists have been using ABM to study the psychological underpinning of cultural patterns.
But, it is still quite unknown and underused to most psychological fields including social psychology.
It is a computational methodology for analysing the actions and interactions of individuals that generates system-level patterns.
Individuals and their interactions in real world are represented as agents and their interactions in artificial society.
Then, researchers can generate system-level societal outcomes from bottom-up individual agent interactions that are governed by a set of micro-mechanism.
This method provides generative explanations for multi-level causation.

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A research question

How do the voices of minority dissent spread to society and potentially change social norms and cultural practices?

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Minority influence on social change

Moscovici, Lage, & Naffrechoux (1969); Moscovici & Lage (1976); Prislin (2022)

Moscovici’s first theory: genetic theory

Minority is viewed as a key catalyst of social change

Individual majorities’ attitude change influenced by minorities “is, at most, a potential intermediary step toward social change.”

Minority influence on social change has been a significant area of inquiry in social psychology.
Moscovici's initial theory called genetic theory viewed minority as a key catalyst of social change.
This theory viewed social change as a social process where individuals and small groups interact to influence and eventually have an impact on societal culture.
For example, he stated that individual majorities attitude change influenced by minorities is at most a potential intermediary step toward social change.
But, in his later theory, conversion theory, attitude change was the final DV
Quickly, I noticed that there is actually no theory that rigorously connected minority influence and social change.
And also luckily, I learned that ABM is widely used to build a theory of complex systems and multi-level causation.

***

In his ‘genetic model of social influence’, Moscovici studied how consistent minorities create cognitive conflict and produce social innovation by disrupting established norms and making visible their alternative point of view.

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Indirect minority influence

Minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes (e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)

Three psychological mechanisms

Direct majority influence
Indirect minority influence
Internal consistency

STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted); Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

The first step is modeling agents and interaction rules.
There are many different ways that minority influences.
In this model, I focused on indirect minority influence.
a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history by moscovici
When the majority listens to minority dissent with open mind,
minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first
and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes
(e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)
I translated the psychological mechanisms into agent interaction rules.

This process hinges on the majority’s tolerance and open minded listening to minority dissent
it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring
it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

A key parameter is “tolerance toward minority dissent”
I vary the tolerance value from 0 to 1 with increment of .05
A tolerance .3 means with a probability of .3, each agent listen to minority dissent in a focal issue and as a result they change their attitude in a related issue.

Alvaro & Crano (1996); Alvaro & Crano (1997); Crano (2001); Crano (2010); Crano & Chen (1998); Levine & Tindale (2015); Moscovici et al. (1969); Moscovici (1976); Moscovici (1980); Wood (1994)

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STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted); Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

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STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

Social change

Moscovici’s definition: An initially minority opinion becomes a social norm

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted); Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

This work particularly focuses on a type of minority influence known as indirect minority influence
a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history
When the majority listens to minority dissent with open mind, minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first
and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes
(e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)

This process hinges on the majority’s tolerance and open minded listening to minority dissent
it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring
it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

I translated this psychological mechanisms into agent interaction rules.
A key parameter is “tolerance toward minority dissent”
I vary the tolerance value from 0 to 1 with increment of .05
A tolerance .3 means with a probability of .3, each agent listen to minority dissent in a focal issue and as a result they change their attitude in a related issue.

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Pattern-oriented Modeling

Grimm & Railsback (2013)

Empirically known level of analysis

Macro-patterns (e.g., Zipf distribution of firm size, casualty distribution in conflicts, fish migration patterns, cultural formation & evolution)

Research aims

To identify unknown micro-mechanisms that generate the known macro-patterns

Principle-oriented Modeling

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted)

Empirically known level of analysis

Micro-mechanisms (e.g., many many social psychological mechanisms we know)

Research aims

To identify unknown macro-patterns, generated by the known micro-mechanisms

Modeling strategy for

social psychologists

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STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

Social change

Moscovici’s definition: an initially minority opinion becomes a social norm

In Jung et al. (2016) model

occurrence
diffusion

In Jung et al. (2021) model

frequency, speed, and magnitude
attitude distribution

Jung, Miller, & Page (accepted); Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

This work particularly focuses on a type of minority influence known as indirect minority influence
a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history
When the majority listens to minority dissent with open mind, minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first
and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes
(e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)

This process hinges on the majority’s tolerance and open minded listening to minority dissent
it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring
it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

I translated this psychological mechanisms into agent interaction rules.
A key parameter is “tolerance toward minority dissent”
I vary the tolerance value from 0 to 1 with increment of .05
A tolerance .3 means with a probability of .3, each agent listen to minority dissent in a focal issue and as a result they change their attitude in a related issue.

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Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

This work particularly focuses on a type of minority influence known as indirect minority influence
a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history
When the majority listens to minority dissent with open mind, minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first
and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes
(e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)

This process hinges on the majority’s tolerance and open minded listening to minority dissent
it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring
it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

I translated this psychological mechanisms into agent interaction rules.
A key parameter is “tolerance toward minority dissent”
I vary the tolerance value from 0 to 1 with increment of .05
A tolerance .3 means with a probability of .3, each agent listen to minority dissent in a focal issue and as a result they change their attitude in a related issue.

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Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, & Miller (2021) American Psychologist Supplementary Material

simulation experiments

For artificial societies with 200 agents, 100 simulation experiments for each combination of parameters, which sum up to a total of 73,800 simulation experiments

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Let’s run the model.

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Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

STEP 5: GENERATING CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS

STEP 2: MODELING ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES

STEP 1: MODELING AGENTS & INTERACTION RULES

STEP 4: SIMULATING MINIMAL SOCIETIES

STEP 3: SPECIFYING MEASUREMENT OF MACRO-PATTERNS

Minimal Society Paradigm

This work particularly focuses on a type of minority influence known as indirect minority influence
a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history
When the majority listens to minority dissent with open mind, minority suggestions change majority’s attitude in related issues, first
and then the focal issue later via internal consistency among attitudes
(e.g., abortion rights, euthansia)

This process hinges on the majority’s tolerance and open minded listening to minority dissent
it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring
it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

I translated this psychological mechanisms into agent interaction rules.
A key parameter is “tolerance toward minority dissent”
I vary the tolerance value from 0 to 1 with increment of .05
A tolerance .3 means with a probability of .3, each agent listen to minority dissent in a focal issue and as a result they change their attitude in a related issue.

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three key findings

tipping dynamics

Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

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Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

a latent period

the onset of social change

three key findings

tipping dynamics
gradual culture change

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0

Percent (%)

100

50

Step

1000

A new zeitgeist

Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

three key findings

tipping dynamics
gradual culture change

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three key findings

tipping dynamics
gradual culture change

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intolerant society with

less social connections

tolerant society with

more social connections

Jung, Bramson, Crano, Page, Miller (2021) American Psychologist

three key findings

tipping dynamics
gradual culture change
polarization as a transitional state

homogenization

polarization

w/ extreme views

diversification

w/ moderate views

indirect minority influence and social network topology interact to generate distinct patterns of attitude distributions in society.
In situations where society is intolerant of minority dissent and people are bound by parochial networks, conformity to the initial status quo prevails.
However, as society reaches a tipping point of tolerance and becomes more interconnected, polarization ensues.
Subsequently, even slight increases in tolerance or network connectivity lead to diversification.
Polarization is a transitional phase to get to the integration and diversification

The social influence psychological mechanism and social network characteristics generate distinct patterns of belief distributions.

When the tolerance is lower than the tipping point and social connection is sparse, beliefs in society becomes homogenized into the hegemonic norm.

When the tolerance reaches the tipping point and society gets more connected to the degree of having small world characteristics, society becomes polarized into two factions and people tend to have more extremely ideology.

When tolerance exceeds the tipping point and society gets more connected, beliefs in society become diversified with large individual differences and people tend to have moderate ideology.

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A formal theory of

minority influence on social change

= Model + Generative causal explanations

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Hypothesis

Generation

Hypothesis

Testing

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Thank you

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five benefits

Jung, Miller, & Page (R&R)

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generative explanations for causation

causation is identified with…

generating the societal outcome from bottom-up agent interactions governed by a set of processes and mechanisms

if a micro-mechanism m generates a target macro-pattern M,

m is a generative causal explanation of M

m: psychological mechanism of minority influence

M: macro-patterns of social change

Axtell (2000); Epstein (2006)

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why indirect minority influence?

a first minority influence phenomenon discovered/reported in social psychological history

it takes a minimal effort from majority (no need for perspective-taking, empathy, intellectual humility) just listening without derogating or ignoring

it can be useful for ideologically charged and polarized issues without inducing negative influence or contrast

Alvaro & Crano (1996); Alvaro & Crano (1997); Crano (2001); Crano (2010); Crano & Chen (1998);

Levine & Tindale (2015); Moscovici et al. (1969); Moscovici (1976); Moscovici (1980); Wood (1994)

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“indirect” minority influence

minority’s

suggestions in a focal issue

majority’s

tolerance

immediate

attitude change in related issues

internal consistency among multiple attitudes

delayed attitude change in the focal issue

legalizing

abortion rights

legalizing

euthansia

legalizing

abortion rights

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Axelrod et al. (2021); Baldassari & Gelman (2008); Baldassari & Page (2021); Charlesworth & Banaji (2019); Kozlowski & Murphy (2021)

macro-patterns: the co-increase of tolerance and belief polarization in U.S.

→ maybe we have reached the tolerance tipping but limited by social connections