ISWAT S3 Cluster Paper

A proposed draft outline

Draft available at: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zJDkCwnGEMEUOHAytz4kECDHSQNYJZeKbRp64cr00RQ/edit?usp=sharing

Tentative Title(s)

Tentative subtitle

• Prediction of Solar Flares and Eruptive Manifestations
• Prediction of Solar Weather Events Impacting Space Weather Conditions
• … (open to suggestions)

State-of-the-art, Challenges and Outlook

Top-level ToC

• Introduction
• The preflare / pre-eruption situation
• Prediction of solar weather events
• Envisioned framework of solar weather prediction methods
• Challenges and short-term objectives
• Future needs and outlook
• Conclusions

[ Tentative author list ]

Introduction

• Solar Active Regions: distinguishing between flaring / eruptive regions and quiescent ones

• Quiet-Sun eruptions

Note: discussion to make a case that we will be focusing on active regions

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• Rationale for predicting solar weather events

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• Recap from Schrijver et al., ASR, 2015

The preflare / pre-eruption situation

• Flares and CMEs
• Connection to: S3-05: Understanding the onset of CMEs / Eruptive Flares
• Connection to: Tier II paper on CME onset: “Recent Progress on Understanding Coronal Mass Ejection / Flare Onset”

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• Precursors (morphological, topological, spectroscopic, radio)
• Connection to: S3-04: Radio observations of the Sun and Heliosphere

Prediction of solar weather events

• Solar Flares: setting the current state of the art
• Statistical methods
• Machine / Deep Learning Methods
• Ensemble Methods
• Connection to: S3-03: Ensemble Forecasts in Space Weather

• Onset of coronal mass ejections

Note: not to confuse with prediction of CME arrival times and geoeffectiveness

• Statistical Methods
• Machine / Deep learning methods
• Ensemble methods
• Connection to: S3-03: Ensemble Forecasts in Space Weather

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• Predicted features of coronal mass ejections
• Connection to: S3-02: 3D CME Kinematics and Topology

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• Solar Energetic Particle Events

Note: this will need to keep short and focused on solar diagnostics, given a connection to: H2: SEP and GCR in Heliosphere

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• SEP event occurrence and profiles by properties of source eruptions and host active regions

Envisioned framework of solar weather prediction methods

• Data, model and performance verification

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• Data Verification in terms of benchmark datasets

• Model verification - suggested practices

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• Performance verification
• Binary and probabilistic forecasts and metrics
• The scoreboard practice
• Connection to: CCMC Flare Scoreboard
• Connection to: CCMC CME Scoreboard
• Connection to: CCMC SEP Scoreboard

Challenges and short-term objectives

• Predicting All Clear in terms of flares, CMEs, and SEPs

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• Missing data
• Magnetic configurations beyond 70^o EW
• Farside events
• Active regions rotating toward the eastern limb
• Acting regions rotating beyond the western limb

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• Customizing forecasts for different stakeholder communities

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• Objectives given current observational, modeling and forecasting capabilities
• Physical and statistical understanding
• Interpretable machine (and physics-informed deep) learning
• Technological infrastructure (portability, searchability)

Future needs and outlook

• Data beyond the Sun-Earth line and expectations
• Mission to L5
• Mission to L4

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• 24/7 full-Sun observations: when and how?

Conclusions

• Current status of solar weather events prediction

• Challenges / drawbacks and caveats

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• Recommendations: suggested forecast framework

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• Short-term future expectations

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• Long-term needs and expectations

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• … [Other?]

Tentative co-authors

• S3 team leaders
• Murray, Thompson, West, Guerra, Zucca, Antiochos, Linton

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• Names included in the draft (alphabetically)
• Angryk, Arge, Aydin, Bain, Barnes, Bingham, Bisi, Bloomfield, Bobra, Camporeale, Chen, Chintzoglou, Collado-Vega, Crosby, De Pontieu, Falconer, Green, Guerra, Harra, Harrison, Hoeksema, Hurlburt, Ishii, Kitiashvili, Kleint, Kliem, Kusano, Leka, Malandraki, Mays, Nishizuka, Panos, Papaioannou, Park, Patsourakos, Piana, Posner, Richardson, Sadykov, Semones, StCyr, Trichas, Toriumi, Torok, Vourlidas, Wang, Yardley

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• A shorter list will need to be made, very likely

QUESTIONS / COMMENTS / SUGGESTIONS ?