COVID-19��SARS-CoV-2��Lisa Gilbert, MD, FAAFP, CTropMed�3/17/20�
�COVID-19��SARS-CoV-2�2019-nCov�HCoV-19
Disease
Virus Name
7 Human Coronaviruses:�4 normal; 3 “novel”
Alpha: HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63 Beta: HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-OC43, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2
Coronavirus Structure
Corona = Crowns for Spikes
Coronavirus Genome
Video and article on how coronavirus replication in cells occurs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eeh054-Hx1U
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4369385/
Myth 1: Donald Trump Named it Coronavirus
Fake news!
Upper Respiratory Infections
“Novel” Coronaviruses
Novel CoV attachment
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41368-020-0074-x
https://jvi.asm.org/content/94/5/e02015-19
Myth 2: Only Asian Men Get Coronavirus
False.
Asian men MAY have higher numbers of ACE2 Receptors on Type 2 Alveolar Cells, but other studies refute this.
In any case, clearly everyone with ACE2 receptors is susceptible and you don’t have to be male or Asian to be infected.
SARS-Cov-2 origin
animals sold for human consumption
Myth 3: COVID-19 was predicted in 1981
False
…but really eerie coincidence
SARS-Cov-2 Transmission
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/pre-symptomatic-transmission.html
SARS-Cov-2 Transmission
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v1.full.pdf
Seasonality and Mutation Rate
Symptoms and Disease Course
Cormorbidities and Risk Conditions
Diagnosis
Ancillary Studies
Person Under Investigation (PUI)
Clinicians should use their judgment. Most patients with COVID-19 have fever and/or cough or difficulty breathing.
Priority may be given to:
Person Under Investigation (PUI)
Close contact is defined as—
a) being within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) of a COVID-19 case for a prolonged period of time; close contact can occur while caring for, living with, visiting, or sharing a healthcare waiting area or room with a COVID-19 case
– or –
b) having direct contact with infectious secretions of a COVID-19 case (e.g., being coughed on)
If such contact occurs while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment or PPE (e.g., gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection), criteria for PUI consideration are met.
Myth 4: Respiratory Viral Panel tests for this
Testing
Testing “Kits”
Outpatient Testing Supplies
How to collect
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVJNWefmHjE#action=share
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYWYEAURUl8
https://www.cdc.gov/urdo/downloads/SpecCollectionGuidelines.pdf
Treatment
Treatment
Treatment
Treatment
Experimental Treatment & Vaccine
“EVERYTHING WE DO BEFORE A PANDEMIC WILL SEEM ALARMIST. EVERYTHING WE DO AFTER WILL SEEM INADEQUATE”
~ Michael Leavitt
Epidemiology
“the branch of medicine which deals with the incidence, distribution, and possible control of diseases and other factors relating to health.”
Epidemiology
Basic Reproduction Number (R0)
Case Fatality Rate
Deaths/Total Cases = CFR
Mortality Rate
e.g. mortality rate of influenza per week is total deaths related to influenza
e.g. For influenza, if the mortality rate >7.3% that is, by definition, an epidemic. Once it drops below that, it is no longer epidemic. CFR is 0.1% but the mortality rate per week in the hospital will rise and fall.
Case Fatality rate
Current CFR 3.9 and thoughts about range
CFR
4.0
7.7
5.7
3.4
0.9
0.2
3.6
1.8
1.7
3.5
1.6
China: More recovered than active cases
Iran and Italy: Overwhelmed with sicker and older patients, Less community testing;
S Korea: Rapid population testing of contacts; not enough time for +ve deaths/recovered
Germany: Young patients diagnosed, aggressive testing
But both S Korea, Germany rising slowly.
US: Decreasing as more testing, but not at capacity of healthcare system
COVID-19 Stats Summary
Possible estimates by Dr Lawler �at American Hospital Association meeting
“Prepare for 10X seasonal influenza burden”
James Lawler, MD, MPH
Director, International Programs and Innovation, Global Center for Health Security�Director, Clinical and Biodefense Research, National Strategic Research Institute
Underestimation?
Harvard Epidemiologist (Dr Lipsitch) �+ current disease ratios
US Surge Capacity Challenges
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215
https://www.sccm.org/Communications/Critical-Care-Statistics
Kansas Capacity
Predictions for COVID-19, based on Harvard and current data:
https://www.kha-net.org/DataProductsandServices/STAT/HospitalUtilization/
http://www.kdheks.gov/flu/surveillance.htm
Management of Epidemic
We MUST #FlattenTheCurve
Quarantine vs Isolation
Quarantine:
| Isolation:
|
Federal Quarantine Authority
State Quarantine Authority
Home Isolation
CDC recommendations
Masks and NIOSH Standard Respirators
Healthcare Chain of Command & Task Force
Planning Ahead
Myth 5: Coronavirus comes from Beer
Nope! Enjoy!
References (if not otherwise indicated)
Isenheim Altarpiece commissioned in 1512 during a plague to comfort sufferers